Archive for the ‘Naturals’ Category

DTBL Best of the Decade

Tuesday, December 31st, 2019

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The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin’s Kings

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren’t the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay’s Jackalope

The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn’t necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we’ve ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let’s just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn’t really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

 

Now let’s move onto the All-Decade players.  I’ve selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I’ve bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn’t want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn’t want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

 

First Team All-Decade

C – Victor Martinez (Naturals ’10-’15, Mavericks ’16, Kings ’17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

C – Buster Posey (Demigods ’11-’19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope ’12-’19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

2B – Jose Altuve (Demigods ’12-’19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

3B – Nolan Arenado (Naturals ’14-’19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

SS – Francisco Lindor (Demigods ’16-’19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

1B/3B – Miguel Cabrera (Naturals ’10-’18, Mavericks ’19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

2B/SS – Robinson Cano (Kings ’10-’19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

OF – Mike Trout (Mavericks ’12-’19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

OF – Nelson Cruz (Mavericks ’10-’11, Gators ’12-’17, Komodos ’18-’19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

OF – Mookie Betts (Kings ’15-’19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

OF – Andrew McCutchen (Naturals ’10-’17, Choppers ’18-’19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

OF – Ryan Braun (Jackalope ’10-’19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11, Mavericks ’12-’14, Darkhorses ’15-’19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

SP – Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks ’10-’19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

SP – Max Scherzer (Jackalope ’10, Kings ’10-’19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

SP – Justin Verlander (Kings ’10-’19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

SP – Zack Greinke (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11-’14, Moonshiners ’15-’19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

SP – Chris Sale (Naturals ’11, Choppers ’12-’19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

RP – Craig Kimbrel (Choppers ’11-’19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

RP – Kenley Jansen (Mavericks ’11-’19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

RP – Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks ’11, ’15-’17, Jackalope ’12-’14, Komodos ’18-’19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

RP – Jonathan Papelbon (Kings ’10-’15, Jackalope ’15-’16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

 

Second Team All-Decade

C – Yadier Molina (Choppers ’10-’16, Cougars ’17-’19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

C – J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses ’16-’19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

1B – Joey Votto (Naturals ’10-’19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

2B – Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners ’10-’16, Jackalope ’17-’18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

3B – Adrian Beltre (Choppers ’10-’18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

SS – Trea Turner (Naturals ’16-’19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

1B/3B – Freddie Freeman (Demigods ’12-’19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

2B/SS – Brian Dozier (Moonshiners ’14-’19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

OF – Charlie Blackmon (Cougars ’15-’19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

OF – Bryce Harper (Darkhorses ’13-’19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

OF – Christian Yelich (Darkhorses ’14-’19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope ’11-’19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (Kings ’10-’17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

DH – Albert Pujols (Jackalope ’10-’14, Mavericks ’15, ’18, Choppers ’16-’17, Darkhorses ’18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

SP – David Price (Naturals ’10-’18, Komodos ’19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

SP – Madison Bumgarner (Cougars ’11-’19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

SP – Felix Hernandez (Jackalope ’10-’14, ’18, Moonshiners ’15-’17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

SP – Jon Lester (Naturals ’10-’12, Choppers ’13-’19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

SP – Corey Kluber (Demigods ’14-’19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

RP – Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners ’10-’11, Mavericks ’12, Naturals ’14, Kings ’15-’17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

RP – Greg Holland (Gators ’12-’13, Naturals ’13-’17, Komodos ’18, Mavericks ’19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

RP – David Robertson (Cougars ’12-’19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

RP – Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners ’16-’19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

 

I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

Batters

Pitchers

Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here’s to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

Kings vs. Darkhorses Again?

Monday, September 2nd, 2019

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Entering September of 2018, the Kings held a slim four point lead over the Darkhorses.  They would briefly relinquish that lead, but ultimately managed to win the DTBL Championship.  This year, the Kings once again held a four point lead over the Darkhorses heading into the season’s final month.  It is a pretty similar situation with these two seemingly the best bets to win it all.  The margin over the rest of the league is actually a little larger this year though.  As of today, the Mavericks find themselves almost 20 points behind the Kings with exactly four weeks to go.  That’s not completely insurmountable, but they will definitely need some help from both of the top two teams to make up some of that ground.

The Kings and Darkhorses both appear to be slightly better versions of the 2018 editions of themselves.  The Kings still have the league’s best pitching staff.  But this year, they have held the top spot in all five pitching categories for a good portion of the season.  The offense is not as good, but only two other teams have more batting points.  On the other hand, the Darkhorses once again have the league’s best offense.  But this year, no other team is even close.  They have 48 batting points and appear to be close to a lock to win four of the five batting categories (all but stolen bases).  And their pitching staff is pretty good too.  Like Kings hitters, Darkhorses pitchers rank third in total points.

It is really hard to handicap this race, because unlike last year, these two teams have been neck-and-neck pretty much all season.  Neither has had an extended period of poor play.  Both teams are relatively healthy heading into the final four weeks as well.  The Darkhorses are looking for their fifth league title, but first since 2010, while the Kings are seeking their record extending eighth league crown.  It should be a fascinating race.

Here are the award winners for August of 2019.

Batters of the Week:

Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Gleyber Torres, Cougars
Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Mike Minor, Naturals
Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Jack Flaherty, Mavericks
Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Dallas Keuchel, Darkhorses
Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Justin Verlander, Kings

The Batters of the Week in August featured four players having monster seasons.  Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres have both already reached 30 home runs in their DTBL rookie campaigns.  Anthony Rendon also surpassed that mark in the past week.  And then there is Eugenio Suarez who hit his 40th (!!!) home run of the season yesterday.  As usual, the pitching award winners are a bunch of veterans still going strong, with youngster Jack Flaherty crashing the party.  Justin Verlander locked up the weekly award by pitching his third career no-hitter yesterday.  Because that happened on September 1 though, it didn’t help his cause for winning another Pitcher of the Month award.

Batter of the Month:

Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
.270 AVG, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 23 R, 6 SB, 3.26 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Mike Clevinger, Naturals
1.96 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 51 K, 3.06 PAR

Last week, to the best of my knowledge, Ronald Acuna became just the second player to reach the 30/30 HR/SB club in his DTBL rookie campaign.  I don’t have a particularly easy way to confirm this, but I did a Baseball Reference Play Index search looking for 30/30 seasons since 1993 in a player’s first two MLB seasons and the only other result was Mike Trout in 2012.  So I feel pretty confident about this assertion.  Acuna currently has 36 home runs and 33 stolen bases with four weeks to go in the season.  He has a great shot at becoming the league’s fourth 40/40 player.  It once looked like a two horse race between Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich for the league MVP award, but Acuna is very much in the thick of that race now, in addition to Rookie of the Year.  As strong as his August was, three other players nearly snatched this award from him:  Demigods outfielder J.D. Martinez and the Nationals dynamic duo of Mavericks outfielder Juan Soto (also a DTBL rookie) and Jackalope third baseman Anthony Rendon.

Finally, we have someone who isn’t a grizzled veteran winning the Pitcher of the Month award.  Mike Clevinger was a late bloomer, but is in just his second DTBL season with the Naturals.  At 28, he is easily the youngest to win this award so far in 2019.  Despite losing about two months due to an injury, he has still managed to compile a nice stat line for the season.  Half of his 10 wins came in August though.  He led the league in August strikeouts with 51.  For what it’s worth, he would not have won this award had Jack Flaherty’s first start of the month been as an active member of the Mavericks rotation.  Despite that start not counting, Flaherty still finished third for the award.  The runner-up was the Cougars’ Sonny Gray who is having a very nice career resurgence this summer.

April Showers Bring May Power

Thursday, June 6th, 2019

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A new single month league-wide home run record was set in MLB in May. 1,135 home runs were hit across baseball this past month, surpassing the previous record of 1,119 in August of 2017. The full season home run record is on pace to be smashed again this season. In the DTBL, I don’t really have a reasonably easy way of determining if this same record was broken, but it is probably safe to assume if it wasn’t, we didn’t miss by much. There were 599 home runs hit by active DTBL players in May. As of this writing on the 6th of June, we are at 1,306 home runs for the season, which is easily above the pace of the record setting 3,231 DTBL homers way back in 2000. Just five years ago, 2014, there were 2,294 home runs hit the entire season. We figure to reach that mark before the end of July this year.  And to think we haven’t even reached the dog days of summer when typically balls fly out of the park at an even higher rate.

On an individual player level, the DTBL did miss out on some of the month’s top home run production, however.  Three of the six players who hit at least 10 home runs in May were not on active rosters for the full month.  Only four of Josh Bell’s dozen homers were after he was activated by the Darkhorses.  Derek Dietrich shocked and confused the baseball world by hitting a dozen homers as well, despite not garnering a DTBL player pool spot.  And rookie Pete Alonso continues to make himself an intriguing draft candidate for next season as he slugged 10 home runs in May.  Of players who actually did produce a full month of stats for DTBL teams, Alex Bregman led the way with 12 home runs, while a pair of Cougars, Jose Abreu and Kris Bryant each hit 10.

Meanwhile, things remain tight near the top of the DTBL standings.  As the calendar turned to June, the Naturals held an ever so slight half point lead over the Kings and four other teams were five or fewer points behind the leader.  Even the eight place team was within 15 points.  So almost everybody remains alive and well heading into the summer months.  May was a great month for the Naturals, in particular.  Not only did they finish the month at the top of the standings, but their players swept the monthly awards as well.  But first, here are the batters and pitchers of the week from May.

Batters of the Week:

Week 6 (4/29 – 5/5) – Alex Bregman, Darkhorses
Week 7 (5/6 – 5/12) – George Springer, Darkhorses
Week 8 (5/13 – 5/19) – Freddie Freeman, Demigods
Week 9 (5/20 – 5/26) – Rafael Devers, Moonshiners
Week 10 (5/27 – 6/2) – Austin Meadows, Demigods

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 6 (4/29 – 5/5) – Noah Syndergaard, Naturals
Week 7 (5/6 – 5/12) – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals
Week 8 (5/13 – 5/19) – Joe Musgrove, Mavericks
Week 9 (5/20 – 5/26) – Brad Peacock, Demigods
Week 10 (5/27 – 6/2) – Max Scherzer, Kings

The Demigods are having a tough season so far, but they do keep racking up these weekly awards as DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Meadows has now won a pair of weekly honors sandwiching his time on the IL.  Brad Peacock’s honor is notable because relief pitchers rarely ever win these awards.  Of course, Peacock isn’t actually a reliever this season for the Astros, but still interesting.  The Naturals had a whole bunch of players who had great months of May, led by a pair of NL West stars.

Batter of the Month:

Nolan Arenado, Naturals
.425 AVG, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 25 R, 0 SB, 3.29 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals
0.59 ERA, 0.679 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 4.35 PAR

Nolan Arenado is leading the Naturals in every offensive category except stolen bases and is near the top of the league in most categories as well.  The perennial All-Star and MVP candidate is quite possibly having his best offensive season so far in 2019.  In May, he led the league with a ridiculous .425 average and 29 runs batted in.  Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich got off to a huge lead in the Batting PAR race in April, but in May, Arenado and his Rockies teammate Trevor Story started to close the gap.  Already at 4.2, Arenado appears to be a lock to reach 6+ PAR for a fifth straight season.  For the record, Darkhorses first baseman Josh Bell would have won this award had he spent the entire month on the active roster.  Instead, Arenado won by a decent margin over Cougars shortstop Story and Moonshiners third baseman Rafael Devers.  It was a strong month for left side of the infielders as Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman rounded out the top five.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the month was the eye-popping numbers posted by Naturals lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Unlike most of the game’s top pitchers, Ryu doesn’t strike out an overwhelming rate of hitters.  Instead, he just never lets them reach base.  His May ERA of 0.59 was the league’s lowest monthly total since Jordan Zimmermann’s 0.55 in April of 2016 (min. 30 IP).  If you bump the inning threshold up to 40, then you have to go back to Jake Arrieta’s ridiculous final two months of 2015.  Ryu’s 0.679 WHIP was similarly rare.  Ryu currently leads the league in ERA (1.21), a full run better than second place Justin Verlander (2.27).  Needless to say, if he were to somehow keep that up for the full season, he would break Greg Maddux’s record of 1.56 back in 1994.  Ryu won this award in a landslide, a full point ahead of runner up Kyle Hendricks of the Moonshiners (Hendricks wasn’t activated until 5/6, so he probably didn’t actually finished second, but I’m too lazy to do the math).  Last month’s winner, Kings veteran Justin Verlander was also in the mix.

2019 Season Preview: Part IV

Sunday, March 31st, 2019

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The final part of the 2019 DTBL season preview will cover the three teams projected to be the cream of the crop.  Two of the three were among the worst teams in the league a year ago.  However, a close examination of their rosters indicates that their struggles in 2018 were not due to a lack of talent.  Also, those rosters have been enhanced with some key additions via draft and trade.  The third team is less surprising, as they are the defending champions.  In the projected standings, there is an eight point gap between these teams and all of the ones covered previously, but only three points separate this trio.  In fact, spoiler alert, there is a projected tie for the top spot.  If you would like to skip to the bottom to see the full standings projections, be my guest.  But here are the three teams projected to be the top championship contenders in 2019.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases - 2nd (10th)
  • Earned Run Average - 2nd (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (3rd)
  • Wins – 9th (4th)
  • Saves - 2nd (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Points - 3rd (8th)

Summary:

Last year was a huge disappointment for the Naturals.  In this preview series a year ago, they were picked to finish second.  Poor performances and injuries knocked them out of contention early though.  It is safe to say they were not fielding their most capable lineup down the stretch either, causing them to finish in eighth place, their worst finish since 2008.  That allowed them to select Juan Soto with the third pick in the draft, who they immediately traded to the Mavericks for Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi should be one of their best all around players right from the start.  He will provide a boost to an offense that was kind of a disaster a year ago, finishing in last place in all of the counting categories.  Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner are their top returning hitters.  They do not appear to be as deep as the other top offenses in the league, but any improvement over last season will be much welcomed.  Some of that improvement could come from a bunch of their young guys who could be breakout candidates, including Yoan Moncado, Victor Robles and Amed Rosario.  The Naturals don’t need to be the best offense in the league.  But as long as they bounce back to at least the middle of the pack, they should be in good shape.  While the ’18 offense was a train wreck, the pitching staff was not.  They finished third in pitching points and enter this season with the core of the staff remaining intact.  Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton give them an excellent top of the rotation.  The bullpen is one of the league’s best, headlined by Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias.  But the main man is Josh Hader, who provided impressive value to the Naturals last year despite not being a closer.  With Corey Knebel out for the season, Hader figures to add plenty of saves to his resume as well.  One thing that stuck out to me when reviewing the Naturals 2018 roster is how many of their castoffs were coveted by other teams and drafted relatively early.  You don’t see that much from a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.  It indicates that this team is loaded with talent.  A jump from eighth to third place would be pretty impressive, but the pieces are there for it to be a realistic expectation.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (8th)
  • Home Runs - 2nd (8th)
  • Runs Batted In - 2nd (9th)
  • Runs Scored - 3rd (9th)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (8th)
  • Earned Run Average - 7th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)
  • Wins - 2nd (8th)
  • Saves - 3rd (7th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points - 2nd (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (8th)
  • Total Points - 1st-T (10th)

Summary:

While the five place jump projected for the Naturals is impressive, it pales in comparison to the Jackalope forecast.  The team that finished dead last in 2018 is now projected to tie for a league championship a year later.  If you are scoffing at this possibility, you shouldn’t be.  This league has a history of teams bouncing from the bottom to the top in short order.  Just last year, the Kings won the championship a season removed from finishing ninth.  Also, it has basically been the story of the Jackalope franchise history.  They are almost never mediocre.  They either contend for the championship or finish near the bottom.  After three straight years of the latter, it would seem this season could see them return to the former.  The main reason for the optimistic outlook is the difference-making talent they added in the draft.  The two players in the draft pool with the highest projected PAR for this season were Ronald Acuna and Adalberto Mondesi.  They added both.  Acuna was the first pick in the draft and they traded up to grab Mondesi at the end of the first round.  Only two players are projected for a higher batting PAR than Mondesi (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), who combines power with elite speed.  Acuna figures to be a five category stud himself.  But it isn’t just the newcomers who have impressive projections.  Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Gary Sanchez are all among the best players at their positions.  Barring terrible injury luck, this will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  Whether or not they can actually contend for the championship will depend on the pitching staff, which was also not very good last year.  Gerrit Cole is the staff ace and should be one of the best pitchers in the game again this year.  His running mate from a year ago, Luis Severino, is a bit of a wild card this season though as he begins the season on the injured list with a bum shoulder.  It is paramount that they get him back sooner than later.  Otherwise, they will be counting on guys like Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow to have huge breakout years.  Their bullpen should be pretty good, but Wade Davis is the only safe bet to tally big save numbers.  The pitching staff should be better than last year, but there is not much room for error.  One thing is pretty clear though:  2019 is going to be a much better season for the Jackalope.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 4th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 4th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th-T (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 1st (1st)
  • Total Points - 1st-T (1st)

Summary:

It is not surprising to see the defending champion picked to win it all again (in a tie, in this case).  However, the 2018 Kings weren’t your typical champions.  They won the league in large part because they had historically good seasons from three players, built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the first half, but then hung on for dear life as most of the roster struggled badly in the second half of the season.  This was not a deep roster.  But the Kings do believe the roster will be better from top to bottom this season.  The projections point towards similar results as last year:  a mediocre offense and the best pitching staff in the league.  On the pitching front, it was all Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year ago.  The rest of the rotation was kind of a disaster and the bullpen wasn’t great either.  Their first place ranking in pitching points was a testament to just how good Scherzer and Verlander were.  They return this year, of course, but are obviously both another year older.  They do have some interesting complementary pieces this time around though.  Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney were early round draft picks and both should be able to improve upon the non-Scherzer/Verlander parts of the Kings rotation.  The bullpen features three closers, at least to start the season, in Sean Doolittle, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino.  This has a chance to be the league’s best pitching staff again this year.  In order to repeat though, the Kings will probably need a better offense than these projections portend.  Defending league MVP Mookie Betts is the only Kings hitter on the shortlist of the best players in the league.  But there are a handful of under the radar players who could be key contributors this season:  Rhys Hoskins, David Dahl, Adam Eaton and Mike Moustakas (I would have had Matt Olson on this list as well had he not broken his hand last week).  If enough of these guys can provide at least slightly above average production, the Kings offense should be good enough to contend again.  They will likely get a more spirited charge from other teams though, as at least half of the teams in the league could be championship contenders.

Here are the full 2019 projected standings.  The three teams covered above appear to be the top championship contenders, but certainly a whole bunch of other teams could make a charge as well and render these numbers meaningless.  It should be another fun season!

Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

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The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year’s group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in ’18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year’s most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won’t see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn’t play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won’t get their money’s worth until next year and beyond.

The Mavericks aren’t used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so ’18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he’s unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won’t see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we’ll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let’s keep up the good work!

2018 Season Preview: Part IV

Saturday, March 31st, 2018

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We’ve reached the final portion of the 2018 DTBL season preview.  Not surprisingly, the two teams projected to finish at the top of the standings are the same squads that occupied those spots most of last season as well.  In case you are curious, they were not projected to finish first or second in this series last spring.  Those spots belonged to the Kings and Choppers, who finished ninth and seventh respectively.  So being tabbed a pre-season favorite most certainly doesn’t guarantee success.  Having said that, it would be pretty surprising if these teams aren’t in the hunt again this year.  They both added some exciting young talent to already loaded rosters.  Not a whole lot separates these teams in the projections.  One point, to be exact.  One of them is projected to lead the league in pitching points.  Its probably not the team you expect.  Here are the top two DTBL Championship contenders.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In - 4th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average - 2nd (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (9th)
  • Wins - 2nd (7th)
  • Saves – 8th (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 2nd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
  • Total Points - 2nd (2nd-T)

Summary:

The overall projected ranking of the Naturals is about what one might have expected.  But the individual category rankings are pretty shocking.  Last year, the Naturals had the best offense in the league, but were ultimately unable to stick with the Mavericks because of a below average pitching staff.  In this year’s draft, they continued to add pieces to the offense while only selecting one starting pitcher in the first half of the draft (Garrett Richards).  Yet now they are projected to lead the league in pitching points, with the bulk of that staff being the same as the one that struggled a year ago.  The main reason for this is fairly obvious:  health.  Noah Syndergaard is the Naturals best pitcher, but threw just 30 innings a year ago.  David Price was also hurt much of the year and finished the season in the bullpen.  If those two are healthy all year, the Naturals are close to a lock to exceed their ’17 pitching numbers.  James Paxton and Carlos Carrasco carried the rotation last year and will be complementary pieces again this season.  Felipe Rivero joins Raisel Iglesias to give the Naturals two excellent closers.  I wouldn’t call the bullpen a strength, but it should be decent.  The batting projections are slightly concerning as they don’t like the Naturals chances of leading the league in batting points again this year.  But there are still some very high upside youngsters on this roster, including Yoan Moncada, Victor Robles and Lewis Brinson, who have all been among the top ranked prospects in baseball the past few years.  Nolan Arrenado is projected to be their top hitter again this year.  A healthy Trea Turner would be right up there too.  Joey Votto, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera and Marcell Ozuna are among their dependable veteran bats.  I think it is very likely the Naturals will exceed these offensive projections.  If they do, they might be the championship favorites.  At any rate, it would be surprising if they aren’t in a pennant race again this year.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (8th)
  • Home Runs - 5th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 5th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 10th (6th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points - 3rd (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (1st)
  • Total Points - 1st (1st)

Summary:

The defending champs appear to be well positioned to become the first DTBL team to repeat since the 2011 Darkhorses finished off their four-peat.  But this is not quite the same Mavericks team that won it all a year ago.  They still have an elite pitching staff, but may not be able to smoke the rest of the pack in most pitching categories again this year.  On the other hand, they won it all despite having a mediocre offense last year.  This squad looks much stronger with the bats, despite not being a priority in the draft outside of first round pick Ozzie Albies.  Mike Trout and Aaron Judge pretty much guarantee that the Mavericks offense won’t suck.  The Orioles infield duo of Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are also the Mavericks top infielders.  The outfield is in good hands with Trout, Judge, Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Mazara.  While the Mavericks aren’t expected to finish at the top of the league in any of the batting categories, they also don’t have an obvious weakness.  The pitching staff remains loaded.  Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish have been carrying the rotation for years, and are back to do it again this season.  Zack Godley is a nice addition as well.  Perhaps the most intriguing pitcher on the roster is Alex Reyes, who they drafted in the second round with a pick they received from the Komodos for Aroldis Chapman.  It isn’t clear what role Reyes will play when he returns from Tommy John surgery in May or June, but the latest word is that he will be a starter.  That would be a huge boost to the Mavericks win and strikeout potential.  The bullpen is full of power arms that may not accumulate a ton of saves, but will be a boon to the other four pitching categories.  Not included in these projections is Keone Kela, who they recently signed as a free agent and appears to be the choice to close games for the Rangers.  Also with Kenley Jansen, the Mavericks should have a decent shot of not finishing last in saves like these projections have them.  They may not demolish the rest of the league in ERA and WHIP as they have in recent years, but this still looks like it could be the best pitching staff in the league.  The Mavericks appear poised to finish in the top four of the league for the seventh straight season:  a remarkable run of sustained success.

Below are the full 2018 projected standings.  As you can see, not a whole lot separates the Mavericks, Naturals and Kings at the top.  Past seasons have shown these projections to be compelling, but certainly not infallible.  Let’s see how it all plays out.  Welcome to the 26th Dream Team Baseball League season!

Komodos Nab Bellinger

Monday, March 19th, 2018

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The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

 

 

Still a Two Team Race

Sunday, August 6th, 2017

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It’s been a two team race for the DTBL Championship for several months now.  Despite the fact that the Mavericks and Naturals have been dealing with injuries to several of their most important players and neither team has truly put it all together yet, no other team besides these two has come close to sniffing first place in recent months.  At the end of July, the Mavericks and Naturals were tied for first place, but the Mavericks have moved into a 1 1/2 point lead at the time of writing.  It is still very much possible for other teams to get back into the race since the gap between the top two and the rest of the pack is just over ten points.  But we just haven’t seen any other team make a run yet.

Two teams looking to make such a run struck a deal a couple weeks ago.  The Moonshiners and Kings completed a trade that was intended to solve roster problems created by injuries.  But as it has turned out so far, this trade has only created further problems as both teams seemingly received damaged goods.  The Moonshiners traded shortstop Zack Cozart and pitcher Jon Gray to the Kings in exchange for outfielder Avisail Garcia and pitcher Jeff Samardzija.  At the time, the Kings were in desparate need of a shortstop to replace the injured Carlos Correa while the Moonshiners were looking for an outfielder to fill in for Gregory Polanco and Keon Broxton.  Of course, within a week of the trade, both Cozart and Garcia hit the disabled list.  This marks the second trade between these teams that appears to have been a bit of a bust for both sides.  The March swap of Polanco for Kyle Seager hasn’t been terribly productive for either team.

This seems like a good time to remind you that the DTBL trade deadline is coming up on August 15.  That is a Tuesday, meaning any trades must be confirmed by both sides before midnight on the 15th even though they will not be processed until the following Monday.  Now, onto the award winners for July 2017.

Batters of the Week:

Week 14 (7/3 – 7/9) – Jose Altuve, Demigods
Week 15 (7/14 – 7/16) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
Week 16 (7/17 – 7/23) – Nolan Arenado, Naturals
Week 17 (7/24 – 7/30) – J.D. Martinez, Demigods

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 14 (7/3 – 7/9) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
Week 15 (7/14 – 7/16) – Jose Quintana, Gators
Week 16 (7/17 – 7/23) – Jon Lester, Choppers
Week 17 (7/24 – 7/30) – James Paxton, Naturals

The way these weekly honors usually work is that my weekly transaction processing program will create a database record for the players with the highest batting and pitching PAR for the week at the time of processing.  But because of the All-Star break, I wasn’t able the capture who had the highest PAR for Week 14 (7/3 through 7/9).  So instead, I used the FanGraphs’ splits leaderboard to eyeball the stats for that week and decided Altuve and Kershaw were the likely PAR leaders for the week.  It could be wrong though, particularly in the case of Altuve who had stiff competition from his Astros teammate George Springer.  There wasn’t particularly stiff competition for the monthly awards though.  Here are the winners.

Batter of the Month:

Jose Altuve, Demigods
.485 AVG, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 22 R, 8 SB, 3.38 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

James Paxton, Naturals
1.37 ERA, 0.788 WHIP, 6 W, 0 SV, 46 K, 4.08 PAR

Jose Altuve nearly hit .500 in July!  He went 48 for 99, which penciled out to a .485 average for the month.  It is the highest monthly batting average since recently inducted Hall-of-Famer Ivan Rodriguez hit .500 in June of 2004 and the fourth highest total in league history:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/i0mzo.  It wasn’t just the average though.  He also hit four homers, scored and drove in over 20 runs and stole eight bases.  Altuve’s hot month has inserted the Demigods second baseman right into the thick of the MVP conversation.  He won this award easily.  Following him were a bunch of closely packed players, with Bryce Harper leading the way.

On the pitching side, another pretty rare feat was achieved by the Naturals’ James Paxton.  He won six games in the month, becoming the first DTBL player to do that in a single month this season.  Along with all those wins came a very impressive 1.37 ERA and 0.788 WHIP.  The Canadian left-hander has become the de facto ace for the Naturals in their championship hunt, replacing the injured Noah Syndergaard.  It was a comfortable win for Paxton, but the Choppers’ Chris Sale was the runner-up.

Turner Breaks Wrist, Wins Award

Tuesday, July 4th, 2017


For the second consecutive month, one of the league’s top title contending teams is facing an uncertain future due to the loss of arguably their most irreplaceable player.  So far, the Mavericks have weathered the storm without Mike Trout quite nicely.  They have held onto first place for virtually the entire season and have built a relatively comfortable margin over all but one of their competitors.  The one team that is giving them everything they can handle is the Naturals.  As of this writing, the two teams are tied in first.  But while the Mavericks have Trout on the verge of returning, the Naturals will now be without young star outfielder (now shortstop) Trea Turner.  Turner broke his right wrist when getting hit by a pitch by the Cubs’ Pedro Strop last Thursday afternoon.  He figures to miss close to two months of action. Less than ideal for a Naturals team that is competing for a championship while already missing their best pitcher, Noah Syndergaard.  More on Turner in a bit.

At the halfway mark of the season, it has become pretty clear that we are headed to a record breaking year for home runs and probably the best league-wide offensive numbers in 15 years.  The record for most home runs hit in the DTBL in a single season is 3,231 back in 2000.  Through Sunday, basically the exact mid-point of the season, 1,625 home runs had been hit.  Runs and RBIs are way up as well.  Even stolen bases are on pace to surpass the totals from the past few years.  Only batting average has stagnated.  Meanwhile, it has been a rough go for pitchers.  The league’s 3.90 ERA is up more than 3/10 of a run from last season and is higher than any full season mark since 2006.  Strikeouts remain the lone strong spot for pitchers compared to recent seasons.

Despite the incredible power surge, it is guys with speed who have been among the biggest contributors to their teams this season.  Last month, Billy Hamilton won the Player of the Month award despite hitting just one home run.  This month’s honor goes to a guy who only hit a pair of homers in June.  Meanwhile, the Pitcher of the Month was earned by a hurler who has bounced back from a slow start in a big way.  Here are the award winners for June 2017.

Batters of the Week:

Week 9 (5/29 – 6/4) – George Springer, Darkhorses
Week 10 (6/5 – 6/11) – Gary Sanchez, Jackalope
Week 11 (6/12 – 6/18) – Jose Ramirez, Gators
Week 12 (6/19 – 6/25) – Corey Seager, Gators
Week 13 (6/26 – 7/2) – Mookie Betts, Kings

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 9 (5/29 – 6/4) – Tanner Roark, Jackalope
Week 10 (6/5 – 6/11) – Robbie Ray, Moonshiners
Week 11 (6/12 – 6/18) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
Week 12 (6/19 – 6/25) – Corey Kluber, Demigods
Week 13 (6/26 – 7/2) – Max Scherzer, Kings

The weekly hitter honors went to five guys who were just named to the MLB All-Star teams.  How many of them will make the DTBL All-Star squads as well?  Find out later today!  Interesting that Tanner Roark won a weekly award because he has really struggled recently, outside of that one week in late May, early June.  His Nationals teammate Max Scherzer has basically been a candidate for the weekly award every week this season.  Another one of the weekly winners edged him out for the monthly honor though.

Batter of the Month:

Trea Turner, Naturals
.316 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 23 R, 22 SB, 3.51 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Corey Kluber, Demigods
1.26 ERA, 0.674 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 64 K, 4.33 PAR

Trea Turner’s incredible June ended poorly with the broken wrist, but prior to that, he was terrorizing pitchers and catchers throughout the league.  Famously, in one of his last games before the injury, he stole four bases off the Jake Arrieta/Miguel Montero duo, causing the latter to throw the former under the bus prior to being designated for assignment.  Turner stole 22 bases in June, the highest single month total since Jose Reyes stole 23 in August of 2007.  There have only been three 22+ stolen base months in DTBL history:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/cPbAS (Roger Cedeno wasn’t on a DTBL roster in ’99).  Prior to the injury, Turner had been on pace to challenge the league’s full season stolen base record as well.  But that has gone by the wayside with him expected to miss up to two months of action.  This was Turner’s honor pretty easily, but Mavericks young phenom Aaron Judge was the runner-up.

It has been an interesting season for Corey Kluber.  After getting off to a rough start, he hit the disabled list in early May with an ERA north of 5.00.  But since returning, he has been dominant, to the point where the Demigods ace is now a strong All-Star candidate.  In June, hes sported an impressive 1.26 ERA and led the league with 64 strikeouts.  Despite very strong months from a couple other pitchers, Kluber won this award pretty handily.  His closest competition was a pair of pitchers you may have heard of: Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Stay tuned for the announcement of the 2017 DTBL All-Stars later today!

2017 Season Preview: Part III

Sunday, April 2nd, 2017


As I’m sitting here writing, the first official game of the 2017 season just ended with the Rays beating the Yankees.  And now the second game, featuring the Giants and Diamondbacks, is underway.  So, welcome to the 2017 season!  We still have four more teams to cover in our season preview series, however.  In this edition, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish in third and fourth places.  The teams that remain have all been regulars near the top of the standings in recent seasons, so there aren’t any big surprises here.  The pair of teams covered in this particular article were probably both slightly disappointed by their place of finish from 2016, but both will be serious contenders this season.  These teams are projected to finish within seven points of the top placed squad.  Here is a preview of the 2017 Naturals and Mavericks.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (7th)
  • Wins – 5th (3rd)
  • Saves – 4th (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
  • Total Points – 4th (6th)

Summary:

Believe it or not, the Naturals are the only team projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  So a strong argument could be made that this is the most balanced team in the league.  They have clearly improved an offense that was very disappointing a year ago.  They used their first three draft picks on exciting young infielders:  Yoan Moncada, Dansby Swanson and Jose Peraza.  Moncada is the big name of that trio, but the other two figure to be much more important pieces for this season.  Add those guys to an existing foundation of Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Nolan Arenado and you’ve got yourself quite the infield.  The outfield isn’t bad either with Trea Turner, Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton.  It would be hard to imagine the Naturals finishing in the bottom half in batting points again this year.  The pitching staff is pretty interesting as well.  It’s essentially the same core as last year, with Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco as the aces.  David Price’s health is certainly a major concern at the moment, however.  The saves projection may be a tad light because it doesn’t include free agent signing Blake Treinen.  I’m not sure how the Naturals wound up getting him being fifth in free agent priority, but they aren’t going to complain.  They don’t have a standout closer, but they ought to be able to rack up a bunch of saves with the five closers currently on the roster.  After two disappointing seasons in sixth place, the Naturals definitely look like a title contender for this season.  They are possibly the most complete team in the league.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (1st-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 1st (6th)
  • Saves – 5th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (1st)
  • Total Points – 3rd (4th)

Summary:

Another season, another year with the Mavericks having the best pitching staff in the league.  I could have just copied and pasted whatever I wrote in this section about the Mavericks pitchers last year, because this is almost literally the exact same staff.  The gist:  they are good.  They are projected to blow away the rest of the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.  Not surprising with a rotation led by Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg.  They even managed to reacquire a couple hurlers who they cut a couple months ago:  Matt Harvey and Taijuan Walker.  The newcomers to the rotation are Kenta Maeda and Sean Manaea, who may seem like unnecessary luxuries.  But keep in mind that one of the big reasons why the Mavericks were unable to win the championship last year is because they suffered injuries to almost all of the previously mentioned pitchers.  This year, they are loaded with depth in case that happens again.  The bullpen is borderline unfair.  Only two closers:  Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances are such reliable strikeout machines that they hold significant value as setup men.  It would be hard to imagine the Mavericks not regaining the top spot in the league in strikeouts.  There are questions on offense, however.  These projections don’t show a lot of promise beyond Mike Trout and Manny Machado.  The Mavericks don’t need a great offense to win this league, but they will need a couple other hitters to have breakout years.  Andrew Benintendi, Byron Buxton, Addison Russell, Nomar Mazara and Tim Anderson are all candidates to do just that.  No matter what happens with the bats, this will be a championship contender on the strength of the league’s best pitching staff.