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DTBL Best of the Decade

Tuesday, December 31st, 2019

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The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin’s Kings

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren’t the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay’s Jackalope

The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn’t necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we’ve ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let’s just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn’t really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

 

Now let’s move onto the All-Decade players.  I’ve selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I’ve bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn’t want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn’t want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

 

First Team All-Decade

C – Victor Martinez (Naturals ’10-’15, Mavericks ’16, Kings ’17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

C – Buster Posey (Demigods ’11-’19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope ’12-’19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

2B – Jose Altuve (Demigods ’12-’19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

3B – Nolan Arenado (Naturals ’14-’19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

SS – Francisco Lindor (Demigods ’16-’19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

1B/3B – Miguel Cabrera (Naturals ’10-’18, Mavericks ’19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

2B/SS – Robinson Cano (Kings ’10-’19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

OF – Mike Trout (Mavericks ’12-’19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

OF – Nelson Cruz (Mavericks ’10-’11, Gators ’12-’17, Komodos ’18-’19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

OF – Mookie Betts (Kings ’15-’19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

OF – Andrew McCutchen (Naturals ’10-’17, Choppers ’18-’19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

OF – Ryan Braun (Jackalope ’10-’19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11, Mavericks ’12-’14, Darkhorses ’15-’19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

SP – Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks ’10-’19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

SP – Max Scherzer (Jackalope ’10, Kings ’10-’19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

SP – Justin Verlander (Kings ’10-’19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

SP – Zack Greinke (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11-’14, Moonshiners ’15-’19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

SP – Chris Sale (Naturals ’11, Choppers ’12-’19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

RP – Craig Kimbrel (Choppers ’11-’19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

RP – Kenley Jansen (Mavericks ’11-’19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

RP – Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks ’11, ’15-’17, Jackalope ’12-’14, Komodos ’18-’19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

RP – Jonathan Papelbon (Kings ’10-’15, Jackalope ’15-’16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

 

Second Team All-Decade

C – Yadier Molina (Choppers ’10-’16, Cougars ’17-’19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

C – J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses ’16-’19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

1B – Joey Votto (Naturals ’10-’19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

2B – Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners ’10-’16, Jackalope ’17-’18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

3B – Adrian Beltre (Choppers ’10-’18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

SS – Trea Turner (Naturals ’16-’19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

1B/3B – Freddie Freeman (Demigods ’12-’19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

2B/SS – Brian Dozier (Moonshiners ’14-’19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

OF – Charlie Blackmon (Cougars ’15-’19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

OF – Bryce Harper (Darkhorses ’13-’19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

OF – Christian Yelich (Darkhorses ’14-’19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope ’11-’19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (Kings ’10-’17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

DH – Albert Pujols (Jackalope ’10-’14, Mavericks ’15, ’18, Choppers ’16-’17, Darkhorses ’18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

SP – David Price (Naturals ’10-’18, Komodos ’19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

SP – Madison Bumgarner (Cougars ’11-’19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

SP – Felix Hernandez (Jackalope ’10-’14, ’18, Moonshiners ’15-’17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

SP – Jon Lester (Naturals ’10-’12, Choppers ’13-’19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

SP – Corey Kluber (Demigods ’14-’19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

RP – Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners ’10-’11, Mavericks ’12, Naturals ’14, Kings ’15-’17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

RP – Greg Holland (Gators ’12-’13, Naturals ’13-’17, Komodos ’18, Mavericks ’19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

RP – David Robertson (Cougars ’12-’19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

RP – Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners ’16-’19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

 

I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

Batters

Pitchers

Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here’s to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

DTBL 25: Gators Farewell

Thursday, January 18th, 2018

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Happy 25th Anniversary!  On January 18, 1993, the later-to-be-named DTBL held its inaugural draft.  When thinking about how I would commemorate this important date in league history, I was originally planning on writing about how the league came together and what happened on this date 25 years ago.  But then it dawned on me that I already did that, exactly five years ago.  So I invite you to read that article again.  While today is the official league anniversary date, I intend to celebrate it all year long.  Yes, 2018 will be our 26th season.  But now we have 25 full years of history to look back upon.  Today, however, I am going to share some news instead.  Our 15 year run with the same 10 league members is coming to an end.  One of our original members has decided to step down.  Greg will be relinquishing control of the Gators.

Greg informed me shortly after the season that he intended to retire from the league.  He indicated that he simply doesn’t follow baseball like he used to and thus fantasy baseball had lost its appeal to him.  At that time, I told him I would give him a couple months to think it over, although it was clear he had already given it plenty of thought.  This week, he confirmed that he will be stepping down.

Greg, if you are reading this, thank you for your 25 years of service to this league.  It never would have gotten started without you and the other original members of the league.  You all were crazy enough to let me talk you into giving fantasy baseball a shot, even though none of us, myself included, really knew what we were doing in 1993.  The fact that this league still exists is definitely something I am extremely proud of.  But it wouldn’t have happened without you.  So thanks again, Greg.  You will be missed in this league, but we’ll certainly keep in touch.

When looking at the Gators franchise history, obviously they haven’t been very successful of late, but that was not always the case.  They won two DTBL championships, in 1995 and 1998, and were arguably the most dominant franchise in the league during the late 90′s.  From 1995 to 2000, they never finished worse than third place.  The ’95 championship squad was probably their strongest ever, and in the discussion as one of the most talented rosters in the league history.  They were led offensively by Mo Vaughn, Dante Bichette, plus a couple of guys who passed away far too young:  Kirby Puckett and Ken Caminiti.  The roster featured a pair of DTBL rookies who went on to become two of the best players in league history:  Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez.  The Gators ’95 draft is on the short list of best drafts any team has ever had.  In addition to the stars of that ’95 squad, some of the other Gators all-time greats include Derek Jeter, who is the only player in league history to accumulate 3,000 hits, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner. An interesting fact that I didn’t realize until looking over the Gators team page this evening is that they only finished in last place twice: their first (1993) and last (2017) seasons. Since 1994 was an expansion season, this means the only time they ever had the first pick in the draft was that inaugural year of 1993. So while there were a lot of down years towards the end of the franchise’s history, the Gators were almost never the worst team in the league.

I know plenty of people who probably would have been interested in taking Greg’s place in the league.  But it was a pretty easy decision to whom I would give the first offer.  My youngest sister, Kathleen, will be joining the league as a full member.  As you know, last year she filled in admirably for Jay while he was deployed overseas.  So now she will have full control with much more freedom to build the roster however she sees fit.  By the way, Kathleen is younger than this league!  She was born a couple weeks after that inaugural draft of ’93.  Welcome, Kathleen!  Oh, and while I’m at it, welcome back, Jay!

Since we haven’t had an ownership change in 15 years, there isn’t a lot of recent precedent on how to handle this situation.  In the past, we have not had new owners inherit existing rosters, even when there was only one new team.  However, I suggest we change that now.  Our previous “expansion” process was pretty rough on the newcomers, particularly considering how deep of a keeper league this is.  Many of you experienced that first-hand, particular Nick, who I believe is the only current league member who came into the league as a lone newcomer.  So I would understand it if you feel it is unfair for a new member to not have to go through that as well.  On the other hand, it would be *far* less work for me if we simply allow Kathleen to inherit Greg’s team as is.  And let’s be honest, she wouldn’t be taking over a stacked roster.  I am proposing that from here on out, as long as there is only one newcomer to the league, that person simply takes over the existing roster of the departing owner.  If there are multiple new members in a season, they will have a mini-draft to pick keepers from the rosters of the departed.  If anyone has a problem with my proposal, please let me know with a reply to this post, a forum post, or a direct email.  We obviously need to get this squared away pretty soon since roster cuts will be due in just a couple weeks.

There will be a whole lot more to come soon on the upcoming season and our year long 25th Anniversary celebration.  Congrats to all on a great quarter century!

 

Posted in Gators, Komodos | No Comments »

2017 Season Preview: Part I

Thursday, March 30th, 2017


We are just days away from the start of the 25th DTBL season.  A quarter century doing this.  I guess that means we’re getting old.  Anyway, there will be time for nostalgia later.  For now, it is time to start looking at what we might see in this upcoming season.  Last season ended with the Kings winning the championship by just about the narrowest margin imaginable.  The Demigods came painfully close to their first title while the Choppers and Mavericks were also in the race in the closing days of the season.  It seems quite possible that we could have a thrilling finish again this year as a whole bunch of teams figure to be in contention.  Which teams have the early edge?  As has become custom, I have compiled projected stats for all the players and teams in the league and have used those numbers to create projected standings.

I have made a small change to these projections from previous years.  But first, please check out this post from four years ago for a refresher on how these projections are created.  Here is what has changed for 2017.  Instead of simply using ZiPS projections (and Steamer for saves), I have decided to use FanGraphs’ Depth Charts Projections.  These projections combine ZiPS and Steamer and then are adjusted by FanGraphs staffers based on expected playing time.  I decided this set of numbers would be preferable to simply using ZiPS for a couple reasons.  First, more input is generally better than less, so two separate systems are being used to create these numbers.  Second, the playing time adjustments make sense to more accurately determine how much of an impact a player is likely to have this season.  It is worth noting that this change will hurt players who figure to spend a chunk of the season in the minors, like Yoan Moncada, for example.  Moncada’s Depth Charts projection is for 266 plate appearances whereas ZiPS has him at 650.  There is virtually no chance Moncada will have 650 plate appearances this year.  So I think Depth Charts paints a more accurate picture, but you are free to disagree.  One last thing to note is that some of these playing time projections have changed as spring training has progressed.  The numbers I am using were taken from just days before the start of the draft.  So that is something to consider as well.

As we begin to dive into these team previews, keep in mind that these projections are nice, but almost certainly won’t come close to predicting the actual results of the 2017 season.  Last year’s projections had the Kings finishing sixth and the Jackalope repeating as champions.  That didn’t exactly happen.  On the other hand, the projections did quite accurately predict that the Demigods and Choppers would be serious title contenders.  So anyway, many grains of salt should be taken when digesting this information.  I do believe it is an interesting way to preview the season without making any enemies by posting my personal predictions.

Without further ado, let’s get to the projections.  Today, I will preview the teams projected to finish in the bottom three spots in the standings.  These projections are especially harsh on the last place squad, but show room for improvement for the other two teams as well.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 8th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 10th (8th)

Summary:

The above numbers aren’t pretty, but one potential reason for optimism is that the Gators have easily exceeded offensive projections the past two years, so there may be something these systems don’t like about their hitters.  They are clearly a speed first team, but they have a bunch of really good power hitters as well.  Wil Myers and Jean Segura were the breakout stars last year.  Corey Seager figures to take another step towards superstar status this season.  Jose Ramirez is the top offensive newcomer and should fit in nicely as an outstanding hitter who can run too.  I’m definitely taking the over on the batting projection.  Pitching, on the other hand, has been the Gators’ sore spot for a while now.  They do not have a truly dominant ace, although Jose Quintana could be one if he played for a different MLB team.  If he were to get traded by the White Sox, that could be a huge gain for the Gators.  Aaron Sanchez was tabbed with the third pick in the draft, so they are obviously counting on him to carry a heavy load.  Jharel Cotton is a very intriguing addition to the rotation too.  The bullpen features arguably the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton.  However, he is currently the only guy in the pen expected to open the season as a closer.  It will require vastly exceeding these projections for the Gators to put an end to their six year run in the bottom three of the standings.  Interestingly enough though, the only time they have ever finished in last place was the very first year of this league, 1993, when there were only five teams.  Can they avoid last place once again?

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (6th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 10th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (7th)
  • Total Points – 9th (5th)

Summary:

This feels like the weirdest projection we will see in this series, by far.  Last year, the Darkhorses finished a respectable fifth place and had the best offense in the league.  So how did they fall all the way to 9th here?  I can’t really answer that.  I even double-checked the numbers to make sure I didn’t screw up something.  I like this team a lot, especially the bats.  Bryce Harper is close to a lock to improve on his pedestrian numbers from last season.  Maybe a step back from Daniel Murphy is to be expected, but newcomer Alex Bregman should easily make up for that.  Christian Yelich and George Springer are also on the verge of greatness in my opinion, and interestingly enough, both will be moving to full time gigs in center field this year.  There is a lot to like about the Darkhorses’ offense.  The pitching staff is a far bigger question mark.  Can Rick Porcello come close to matching his 2016 AL Cy Young campaign?  Will youngsters Julio Urias and Tyler Glasnow flourish in the big leagues this season?  There is significant upside in the rotation, but also a lot of unknowns.  The bullpen isn’t great, but could be much more interesting if Hector Neris is rightfully given the Phillies closer job early in the season.  They should easily exceed this saves projection.  Overall, I think the Darkhorses could be a contender, despite what these numbers show.  It will come down to how the young pitchers perform.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
  • Wins – 2nd (4th-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
  • Total Points – 8th (7th)

Summary:

Like the other two teams in this article, the Moonshiners have a recent trend of exceeding expectations.  Despite finishing 7th and being projected for 8th this year, there are actually a lot of positives here.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections at the end of the series, the Moonshiners are actually expected to improve by more than 10 standings points from last year.  It is just how they happened to shake out in comparison to other teams that pushed them down to 8th.  It is pretty clear that the offense should be better this year, despite trading away two of their key veteran hitters:  Kyle Seager and Ian Kinsler.  Instead, they now have some significant young potential in guys like Gregory Polanco and Jonathan Villar.  Villar alone will ensure they don’t finish anywhere near last in steals again.  And there is a ton of power in the lineup too with guys like Brian Dozier, Khris Davis, Miguel Sano, Evan Gattis and Brad Miller.  Batting average could be a problem, but they should see significant improvement in the other four hitting categories.  The pitching staff will still be led by veterans Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke along with last year’s breakout sensation Kyle Hendricks.  The Moonshiners seem to have a guy like that every year (Keuchel the year before), so who will it be this season?  Perhaps Jon Gray or Robbie Ray.  The bullpen is quite strong with the additions of the two best closers available in this draft:  Edwin Diaz and Seung Hwan Oh.  The Moonshiners have finished in 7th place four years in a row.  Despite the projection of 8th, these numbers actually show a very strong likelihood of them taking a positive step forward this season.

Posted in Darkhorses, Gators, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Story-book Beginning

Monday, March 20th, 2017


Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Reviewing the Rest

Saturday, November 12th, 2016


For the six teams who were not in the running for the DTBL Championship in the final weeks of the season, 2016 was mostly a disappointment. However, a few of these teams did show promise and had their moments when they too appeared to be among the better teams in the league. Unlike last year though, there were some teams that finished so far behind the leaders that they appear to have a huge rebuilding task ahead of them. Here is a brief summary of the 2016 seasons for the six non-contenders.

A fifth place finish for the Darkhorses is probably a little disappointing considering they finished in third a year ago and have one of the most exciting young corps of players in the league. But they actually came closer to winning it all this year than last. They had the best offense in the league, leading the way with 40.5 batting points. Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Murphy and Xander Bogaerts were the top offensive stars, but many others emerged this season like George Springer, Christian Yelich and Justin Turner. Unfortunately for them, their pitching kept them from being a true title contender. Rick Porcello became a surprise staff ace and Carlos Martinez rewarded them for their faith in making him a first round draft pick. But they didn’t have a lot of pitching depth. If they can shore up this staff with one or two more solid hurlers, they will be a scary team next year.

For much of the year, this looked like it was going to be one of the worst seasons in Naturals franchise history. They were toiling near the bottom of the standings as late into the season as early September. But a late rally pushed them up to a sixth place finish, the same spot they settled for a year ago. Part of the reason for that surge was a resurgence of two of their veteran stars: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. Another was the incredible performance by rookie Trea Turner, who nearly cracked the PAR leaderboard despite spending half the year in the minors. But the star of the team from start to finish was Nolan Arenado who led the league in RBI and was near the top in home runs and runs as well. Despite a pedestrian season overall, the Naturals may come away as the big winners from the 2016 Draft. In addition to Turner, who was an enormous steal in the eighth round, they also solidified their pitching staff for years to come with their first round selection of Noah Syndergaard. He was easily their best pitcher this season. The Naturals remain one of the league’s most talented teams, even if the results haven’t been there the past two years.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Moonshiners finished in seventh place. Yes, for the fourth consecutive year, they finished the season in the seven hole. It is obviously not the place they want to be. This year, it was a very weak offense that kept them from moving on up. They finished with just seven batting points and were dead last in every offensive category except for home runs. Really, their entire offense was carried by their two star second basemen, Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler. Other than that, not much to write home about. Losing Prince Fielder to an early retirement was especially disappointing. There is a lot of work that needs to be done to their lineup. Things weren’t as bad for the pitching staff, although there were some disappointments there too. On the positive side, for the second straight year, the Moonshiners were the proud owners of the Cy Young candidate who came out of nowhere. This year, it was Kyle Hendricks who led the league in ERA and WHIP. Last year, it was Dallas Keuchel. However, Hendricks was pretty much the lone bright spot in the rotation. Their dynamic trio from a year ago, Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, all had disappointing seasons this time around.

Through the first couple months of the season, one of the best stories in the league was the return to power of the Gators, a franchise that hasn’t finished in the top half of the standings since 2008 and hasn’t finished above the bottom three spots since 2010. Unfortunately for them, their season unravelled in the second half and that streak of bottom three finishes continued with another eighth place finish. They had the opposite problem as the Moonshiners. They had a decent enough offense, but easily the league’s worst pitching. The offense was carried by two unexpected sources: breakout star and former first round pick Wil Myers and previously enigmatic shortstop Jean Segura. Segura was one of four players to put up a 20/30 HR/SB season. You may be familiar with the other three: Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve. The Gators easily led the league in stolen bases thanks to Segura, Myers, Starling Marte and Dee Gordon. The pitching staff was a mess, with two notable exceptions: Jose Quintana and Zach Britton. Britton accumulated 47 saves with an absurdly low 0.54 ERA. One of these years, the Gators are going to put it all together. But they are definitely going to need to improve the pitching staff to get to that point.

We nearly had the preposterous situation of one team going from worst to first and another doing the exact opposite this year. However, the defending champion Jackalope were just barely able to avoid finishing dead last while settling for ninth place. Simply put, this season was a write-off for the Jackalope. After everything went their way a year ago, very little went right in 2016. And not to make excuses, but Jay had a pretty good one. He spent most of the summer preparing for a deployment and simply didn’t have time to manage his roster. Had his team been more competitive, we probably would have found a temporary replacement. But anyway, this is still a team loaded with talent. Josh Donaldson had another elite season. Paul Goldschmidt had one of the quietest 24 home run, 32 stolen base years a player has ever had. They did not get even close to the same kind of production out of their starting rotation as they did in ’15. Jake Arrieta was good, but definitely not the same. Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray had injury riddled years. And overall, the roster just wasn’t as deep as it was in their championship campaign. Next year will almost certainly be better for this squad.

Before the season, I tabbed the Cougars as the most improved team in the league. Well, that didn’t really pan out. For the second time in three years, the Cougars finished in last place. They were among the bottom teams in the league in both batting and pitching points, so there weren’t a ton of bright spots. But there was one: second overall draft pick Kris Bryant, who already appears to be one of the best players in the league. He slugged 39 homers with 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. Charlie Blackmon also quietly emerged as one of the top players in the league. Most of their other key players had disappointing seasons, however. The pitching staff was surprisingly ineffective. Madison Bumgarner was his usual dominant self. But other than him, there weren’t many good performances to point to from this staff. To end on a positive note, this season was proof that a last place finish is hardly a disqualifier for contending the following season. So there is hope for 2017 for the Cougars.

Posted in Cougars, Darkhorses, Gators, Jackalope, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Baseball’s Power Surge

Saturday, July 2nd, 2016


For most of the past six seasons, pitchers have been dominating hitters more than at any other point in league history.  ERA, WHIP, AVG and HR have all been at record lows in recent years while strikeouts have skyrocketed.  However, there are signs that some of that is starting to change.  Since we are almost exactly at the halfway mark of the season, it is pretty easy to look at the league stats and see what pace we are on in certain categories.  One category sticks out in a big way:  home runs.  Through Friday, there have been exactly 1,500 home runs hit in the DTBL this season.  So we are on pace to reach approximately 3,000 homers for the season, a mark which has not been reached since 2004.  The pace in other offensive categories isn’t as dramatically different, but it still seems likely that 2016 will be the best offensive season since at least 2012 and possible a lot further back than that.

Home runs are way up.  RBI and runs are up slightly.  But interestingly, batting average and WHIP are right in line with recent seasons and strikeouts continue to be at all time highs.  So what does this mean?  It appears to me that whatever offensive resurgence that is currently occurring in baseball is almost exclusively the result of the increase in home runs.  Looking outside of the DTBL to MLB as a whole, the current home run per team, per game rate is 1.15.  This is a huge increase over 1.01 from last season, and if it holds up, would be the highest season mark since 2000.  I’m not going to offer any theories for the increase in home runs.  But the affects have been dramatic.

So the 2016 season is basically half over.  The Kings continue to lead, but they did not have a very good June.  The Demigods have had two great months in a row and are now just four points out of first.  The Mavericks are also in close striking distance, but are currently dealing with a whole host of injuries, most notably Clayton Kershaw, but several other key players as well.  The Darkhorses were probably the team that had the best month, moving into the top half of the standings.  Here are the award winners for June 2016.

Batters of the Week:

Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) – Mookie Betts, Kings
Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Xander Bogaerts, Darkhorses
Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope
Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) - Jose Fernandez, Demigods
Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Jon Lester, Choppers
Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Julio Teheran, Darkhorses
Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) - Chris Sale, Choppers

It was a good month for somewhat recent high draft picks.  With the exception of Lester and Sale, every player who earned a weekly honor in June was a first or second round pick in the ’14 or ’15 drafts.  All of the players above had excellent months, but interestingly, the monthly award winners are not among them.  Here are your monthly award winners for June 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Wil Myers, Gators
.327 AVG, 11 HR, 33 RBI, 25 R, 5 SB, 3.47 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Max Scherzer, Kings
1.96 ERA, 0.726 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 58 K, 3.81 PAR

Wil Myers was once considered the top prospect in baseball by many.  The Gators bought into that potential, making him the second pick in the 2014 draft.  However, until this past month, his career had been underwhelming at best.  He’s on his third MLB team and now has a new position.  But it is quite possible that June was the beginning of him reaching that superstar potential.  He led the league in HR and RBI in June.  His 11 homers were more than he hit in any full season in his DTBL career to date.  The 3.47 PAR he accumulated in the month accounts for about 85% of his career total.  This was a fairly comfortable win for Myers, but Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones were his closest competition.

On the other side, dominating months are nothing new for Max Scherzer.  He won this same award last May and has been in the running many other months as well.  In June, his numbers were impressive across the board, but especially in strikeouts (note:  his record tying 20 strikeout game was actually in May).  He struck out at least 10 in five of his six starts in June and the 58 for the month were nine more than any other pitcher.  He now leads the league in that category, obviously helped by Clayton Kershaw’s trip to the DL.  Scherzer did not win this honor easily.  Jon Lester was just a couple tenths of a point behind him.  Corey Kluber finished third.

Posted in Awards, Gators, Kings | No Comments »

2016 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, March 30th, 2016


Welcome to the 2016 DTBL season!  Before things get started for real on Sunday, I’m going to kick off my annual season preview articles.  Last year, the Jackalope turned the season into a bit of a snoozer as they basically dominated the league from start to finish.  Surely, that won’t happen again this year, will it?  Which other teams can pose a serious threat to their title defense?  As has been the custom in recent years, I have compiled projected stats for all players currently on DTBL rosters and have used those to create a projection of the league standings.

Once again, I am using ZiPS as my source for 2016 stat projections for every statistical category except for saves, which I obtained from Steamer.  Please check out this post from three years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  I am using the stats for all 28 players who were on each team’s roster at the completion of the draft, even if they are not expected to contribute much this season.  However, the team totals are adjusted to assume a 14 hitter and 9 pitcher roster.  Again, check the link above to see exactly how I’m doing this.

Before I get started, a quick look back at last year’s projections.  First, the Jackalope dominance was definitely not expected as they were slotted to finish sixth.  But some of the other forecasts were pretty solid, including the projection of an extremely bunched middle of the pack and disappointing seasons for the Kings, Gators and Moonshiners.  No doubt, this year’s projections won’t hit all the marks either, but I still think this provides some value in identifying pre-season strengths and weaknesses of each team.

I will break this into four sections.  In the past, I’ve gone with three teams in the first two parts and two in the final two.  But I’m switching it up a bit this year.  Not to spoil the full standings, but there is a pretty clear delineation at both the top and bottom of the standings with a pair of teams sticking out on each end and the middle six picked to finish in an extremely tight group.  So I’m going to go 2-3-3-2 this year.  With that, here are the teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings in 2016.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
  • Wins – 7th (5th)
  • Saves – 6th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
  • Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

At this time last year, the Moonshiners had just swung a couple huge trades to give their pitching staff a much needed boost.  Adding Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez certainly did improve their staff, but not nearly enough to make them a contender.  Meanwhile, their offense wasn’t great either as they limped to a seventh place finish.  Unfortunately, these projections show them taking a huge step in the wrong direction this year, especially on the hitting side.  They are not projected to finish higher than fifth in any category and are slotted dead last in three categories.  The problem, at least on offense, appears to be a lack of players who are expected to post monster numbers.  There are some reasons for optimism though.  Their first two draft picks, Miguel Sano and Michael Conforto, have enormous upside and could easily become their best two offensive players immediately.  On the pitching side, it is hard to imagine a staff led by Greinke, Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel not being at least average.  Also, while the bullpen doesn’t have any huge names, they do currently have four guys slated to be closers.  The  Moonshiners will need to vastly exceed these projections to have a good season, but last place seems a little overly pessimistic for a franchise that has NEVER finished worse than seventh.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 7th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 9th (8th)

Summary:

So the order is switched, but the bottom two of these projections are the same as a year ago.  Despite finishing in eighth place in 2015, the Gators made significant strides, particularly with their bats.  This year, the goal would seem to be to improve the pitching staff.  Steven Matz joins a rotation that badly needs an ace.  These projections don’t show them making the necessary jump on the mound to move up the standings.  But this is familiar territory for the Gators, being projected near the bottom.  Their actual results last year were much better than even their place of finish would indicate.  And there are some positive signs in these projections too, including a big improvement in power.  If Yoenis Cespedes’ second half can carry into the new year, things will really be looking up.  Corey Seager hopes to anchor an improved infield.  Overall, there is a lot to like about the Gators roster.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff has too many question marks for them to project as a contender this year.  At the very least, the Gators aim to finish above the bottom three for the first time since 2010.

Posted in Gators, Moonshiners | 1 Comment »

Elite Rookie Class Arrives

Thursday, March 24th, 2016


One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Sifting Through the Mediocrity

Wednesday, November 11th, 2015


Well, this post is about a month overdue.  The World Series is over and we’re already well into awards season, yet I haven’t finished recapping the 2015 DTBL season.  I have a lot of writing to do next week with the awards announcements, so let’s get right to this.

So far, I’ve reviewed the seasons of the top three finishers and left the other seven for a single article.  The reason for that is simple:  very little separated the bottom seven.  All were in jeopardy of finishing in last place right up to the final days of the season.  In the end, the fourth place Choppers finished just 6 1/2 points ahead of the last place Kings.  That margin is less than what separated the Choppers from third place.  So there were obviously a lot of pretty weak teams in the league this year, which certainly helped the Jackalope cruise to an easy victory.  However, what is really interesting about the bottom seven is that none of them were even close to as poor as usual last place teams.  The Kings finished with 45 1/2 points, which most years would put them closer to the middle of the pack than last place.  In fact, the previous record for most points from a last place finisher was 39 1/2 points for the 2001 Panthers.  While I’m sure none of these seven teams are particularly pleased with the way the 2015 season finished for them, they can take solace that they all have some pretty obvious strengths and aren’t really too far from being title contending teams in the future.

Let’s start at the top of this tightly packed group.  The Choppers had a pretty rough go of it most of the year, but finished strong to lead this pack.  They finished in fourth place for the second consecutive year.  While they haven’t been in a tight title race in a very long time, they have quietly put together a nice string of above average seasons.  The Mavericks are the only other team to have finished in the top half of the league for three straight seasons now.  The Choppers had a very strong season from their pitching staff, slotting behind only the loaded staffs of the Jackalope and Mavericks in terms of pitching points.  The rotation, led by Chris Sale, went six deep with pitchers who accumulated at least a 4.0 PAR.  No other team had that sort of depth this year.  The offense was a bit of a disappointment, but Jose Bautista and Anthony Rizzo had great years.  Fourth place is a nice finish for this team that looks to be just an offensive player or two away from really making a title run.

A year ago, the Demigods came very close to earning their first DTBL championship.  Unfortunately for them, they came nowhere near repeating that kind of season in 2015.  The reason is obvious:  their pitching took a huge step backwards.  Losing Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery before the season began proved to be too much to overcome.  Jose Fernandez’s return from the same surgery limited him to just 65 innings.  Not surprisingly, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto were unable to match their very lofty ’14 numbers.  All told, the Demigods’ 19 pitching points were not even close to what they needed/expected.  The offense was actually really good.  Jose Altuve had another strong campaign and J.D. Martinez wound up being one of the steals of the draft.  Nobody else had eye-popping numbers, but this was a very solid offensive squad from top to bottom.  Had the pitching staff lived up to expectations, this would have been a top three team for sure.

Things definitely didn’t go as planned for the defending champions.  The Naturals slipped to sixth place, their worst finish since 2008.  Interestingly enough, this is the second straight year that the defending champ fell all the way to sixth place.  For the Naturals sake, hopefully they don’t continue to follow the post-championship dive of the 2013 Kings and fall to dead last next year.  So what went wrong for the Naturals?  Well, for one, Miguel Cabrera just wasn’t himself.  He had a decent year, but not even close to his usual form.  Newly acquired Yasiel Puig was a major disappointment.  And injuries hampered a whole bunch of their key players throughout the year.  That being said, Nolan Arenado emerged as a MVP candidate and Joey Votto was outstanding as well.  On the mound, they had a little trouble with the back-end of the rotation.  David Price and Carlos Carrasco were the bright spots, but the rest of the starters were not great.  On the other hand, the bullpen was very good, leading the league in saves.  Certainly a disappointing year for the Naturals who have been one of the league’s premier franchises in the past decade.  But there is little reason to doubt they could bounce back near the top next year.

The Moonshiners are nothing if not consistent.  For the third consecutive year, they finished in seventh place.  Obviously, that’s not an ideal spot to establish consistency though.  While the results were the same, the process and team make-up were not.  They completely revamped their squad in March, trading for Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez.  Those two were very productive, especially Greinke who had the best season of his career.  Along with those two, the Moonshiners may have made the best move of the year picking up Dallas Keuchel from free agency in April.  With those three acquisitions, it is hard to believe the Moonshiners weren’t able to improve their final standing.  Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of their players who had great seasons.  Especially troubling was the lack of offensive firepower.  Prince Fielder led the team in batting PAR at 3.4, by far the lowest total for a team leader.  Despite the three previously mentioned pitchers having excellent seasons, the Moonshiners pitching staff was only mediocre since they got very little from anyone besides those three.  They will need strong seasons out of a lot more players next year to get out of this seventh place rut.

Despite finishing in eighth place, the Gators may have had the most positively surprising offense in the league.  Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte helped lead the Gators to the fourth most batting points in the league.  This is a franchise that had been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for six straight years.  So this was a huge step in the right direction.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff didn’t move in that same direction, finishing with the same number of pitching points (19) as last year.  Michael Wacha was clearly the staff ace, but there wasn’t much behind him in the rotation.  Unfortunately, this is the fifth straight year the Gators have finished in a bottom three position.  However, this was clearly the best team they have had in that stretch as they finished with their highest point total since 2010.  So there is reason to be optimistic for the Gators’ future.

If there is one team whose final ranking is not at all indicative of the talent level of the squad, it is the Cougars.  Early on, they looked like a team that could compete for the title.  But a series of late season injuries and performance drop-offs caused them to tumble all the way to a ninth place finish.  Losing Adam Wainwright for most of the season prevented the Cougars from having one of the better pitching staffs in the league.  Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer were fantastic, but they just didn’t have the depth they had hoped for.  But it was their offense that caused the late season free-fall.  Jose Abreu and Charlie Blackmon were drafted to boost the offense, and pretty much lived up to expectations.  But those two along with Chris Davis weren’t enough to keep them afloat.  As mentioned, several key players got hurt late in the season, which pretty much tanked their season.  Again, this is not your typical ninth place team.  The Cougars have the talent of a top half team.

Finally, we come to the dumpster fire that was the Kings 2015 season.  Just two years ago, the Kings won their fifth DTBL title.  Boy does that feel like a distant memory now.  What’s really shocking about this fall is the way the team flipped the script during this season.  Early on, they were riding Max Scherzer and Shelby Miller to surprisingly having one of the better pitching staffs in the league, but their offense was holding them back.  But then in the second half, the pitching completely fell apart while the offense turned things around to finish in the top half of the league in batting points.  In the end, their pitching was pretty terrible and the main culprit for the last place finish.  Scherzer and Jeurys Familia were the only above average pitchers on the squad.  Offensively, their first two draft picks were very solid:  outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco.  A.J. Pollock became an elite player as well.  So there are some reasons to be optimistic about the Kings’ bats.  Also, for the glass half full crowd, this was simply not your typical last place team in terms of points and talent.  Plus they will have the chance to pick first in the deepest draft in league history.  So not all is lost for this proud franchise, but 2015 was a complete disaster.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Demigods, Gators, Kings, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

DTBL All Star Awards Outlook

Monday, July 27th, 2015


Welcome to a slightly delayed version of the All Star awards outlook.  These numbers are all culled from stats as of the All Star break, as the season’s midpoint is always a good time to look back on how the season has gone and look forward to exciting pennant races.  Well, perhaps not in DTBL itself, but one never knows!

Without further ado, here are your category leaders at the break.

»Batting Average: Miguel Cabrera, Naturals, .350
»Home Runs: Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope: 27
»RBI: Nolan Arenado, Naturals and Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope: 70
»Runs: Mike Trout, Mavericks: 68
»Stolen Bases: Billy Hamilton, Naturals: 44
»ERA: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners: 1.39
»WHIP: Max Scherzer, Kings: .780
»Wins: Gerrit Cole, Jackalope: 13
»Saves: Mark Melancon, Jackalope: 29
»Strikeouts: Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks: 160

On to the awards!

Rookie of the Year:

Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners – 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 107 K, 6.8 PAR
Jake Arrieta, Jackalope – 0.986 WHIP, 2.66 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 123 K, 6.7 PAR
Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses – 0.924 WHIP, 2.14 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 112 K, 6.6 PAR

As with the Memorial Day outlook, the Rookie of the Year category is dominated by pitchers.  All three of Keuchel, Arrieta, and deGrom sat in the top 10 of pitching related PAR at the break.  And, really, a case could be made for any of these pitchers to be the front runner for the award.  deGrom holds a slight edge in WHIP and ERA; Arrieta and Keuchel are tied in wins;  Arrieta holds the edge in strikeouts; and PAR gives Keuchel the slight edge.  I don’t think anyone would be truly surprised if these three are at the top of the ballot come the postseason.

Honorable mention goes to a trio of outfielders, Charlie Blackmon of the Cougars (who cracked the top 10 of hitter PAR at the break), Mookie Betts of the Kings, and George Springer of the Darkhorses.

Cy Young:

Max Scherzer, Kings – 0.780 WHIP, 2.11 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 150 K, 9.6 PAR
Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – 0.843 WHIP, 1.39 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 106 K, 7.6 PAR

Once again, Max Scherzer reigns supreme at the top of the Cy Young list.  A ridiculous WHIP and strikeout total lead to a PAR that’s two full points above Zack Greinke.  However, Greinke’s pre All Star break performance was nothing short of extraordinary in its own right, and makes him a worthy companion for Scherzer.  Greinke hurled 35 and 2/3 scoreless innings going into the break, dropping his ERA to a ridiculous 1.39.  With all the great pitchers in baseball this year, it remains to be seen if Scherzer and Greinke can stay on top of this list, or if any of the pitchers listed below can join the truly elite.

Honorable mention goes to Gerrit Cole of the Jackalope, Sonny Gray of the Jackalope, Chris Archer of the Cougars, and the trio of ROY candidates discussed above.

Most Valuable Player:

Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope – .340 BA, 60 R, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, 6.4 PAR
Mike Trout, Mavericks – .312 BA, 68 R, 26 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, 5.4 PAR

Given Bryce Harper’s otherworldly season, it’s a bit strange not seeing him at the top of the MVP race.  However, in fantasy baseball, stolen bases still matter, and while Harper mashes the cover off the ball, the speed simply isn’t there.  In contract, the speed is there for the two leaders at the midway point, Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout.  Surprisingly, Trout features the bigger power numbers, coming in at 26 homers to Goldschmidt’s 21.  Unsurprisingly, Trout also leads the league in runs with 68  However, Goldschmidt dominates most of the other categories, with a sparkling .340 batting average, a league leading 70 RBI, and a remarkable 16 stolen bases (to Trout’s 9).  In fact, the 16 steals for Goldschmidt are only two off his career DTBL high.  Trout is an amazing player, and it will take a lot for Goldschmidt to hold him off, but as of now, this MVP nod is well deserved, for both Goldschmidt and the Jackalope as a team.

Honorable mention goes to Bryce Harper of the Darkhorses, Giancarlo Stanton of the Jackalope, and the surprising Todd Frazier of the Darkhorses.

 

Posted in Awards, Cougars, Darkhorses, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

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