DTBL News

The 2012 season could be one of the most-wide open years in recent DTBL history, with a number of teams in position to compete for the title.

Over the next week I will post team overview snippets that include a letter grade for each of the 10 scoring categories for all teams. These grades are based on a combination of three player projection systems, and they rate a team against other DTBL teams.

The projections are the product of hard work from a friend of mine who is much more

proficient than I am at using spreadsheets. He built out full-year projections  using Pecota, Zips and a composite set of projections from MLB.com.

Thanks to those of you who responded so quickly with feedback on your draft! Also, as an FYI, unlike a certain league commissioner I didn’t rig these projections to brag about how great my team is

Moonshiners relief pitcher Sergio Santos

Well into the second full day of the regular season, it appeared the early narrative of the 2012 season would be more of the same from 2011:  dominating pitching performances with runs being at a premium.  But by the time the first full week was in the books, a different pitching-themed story emerged.  Across the league, closers were blowing games like their jobs didn’t depend on it.  No one was immune.  Even the immortal Mariano Rivera blew his first save opportunity of the season.  But for the most part, these games were being blown by closers who had a less than firm grip on the ninth inning job as it was.  If this trend continues, expect bullpen changes to be made very soon.

Here are some numbers to illustrate the early struggles of relief pitchers.  Since we don’t keep track of blown saves in this league, I’m going to use ERA instead.  Last season, the cumulative league ERA was 3.39 for the full year.  That’s a very low number which goes to show just how good the pitching was in 2011.  But relief pitchers were even better.  The league ERA of all relief pitchers was 3.02.  In the first week of 2012, the total league ERA is up significantly, 45 points, to 3.84 and the bullpen ERA has increased even more, 53 points, to 3.55.  So relief pitchers are largely responsible for this early inflation.  I don’t have the stats to prove it, but usually the pitchers are ahead of the hitters this time of year.  So it’s possible we could see these numbers go up even more.

Since the only bullpen job that carries significant weight in a fantasy league is that of closer, it will be very interesting to see if some changes are on the way.  Most of the closers who have struggled were not on solid ground to begin with.  Alfredo Aceves was named the Red Sox closer the day before the opener, following the injury to Andrew Bailey.  He proceeded to blow his first two appearances (one save opp, one tied game) and had an infinity ERA/WHIP before picking up a save on Monday.  The other prime candidate, Mark Melancon, hasn’t been much better.  If neither of these two prove capable, will they move Daniel Bard back to the pen?  Sergio Santos also blew his first two save opportunities.  Although he was a bit more of an established closer than Aceves, he has to be looking over his shoulder with veteran closer Francisco Cordero in the Blue Jays bullpen as well.  Sticking in the AL East, Tampa Bay initially leaned on Joel Peralta to fill in for the injured Kyle Farnsworth, but he has already been replaced by Fernando Rodney.

There is another category of closers who are probably less likely to lose their job after a couple bad outings, but aren’t great bets to finish the year in that role either.  These are guys who are almost universally acknowledged to not be the best relief pitcher in their respective bullpens:  guys like Chris Perez, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton.  Perez could be replaced by Vinnie Pestano at any moment, and that time may be sooner than later if he blows another three run lead like he did on Opening Day.  The Rangers bullpen is full of guys with dominating stuff, but at this stage of his career, Nathan is not one of those guys.  For a team that fancies itself as one of the World Series favorites, it remains to be seen if they will to continue to use their fourth or fifth best reliever as the closer.  Broxton was the obvious candidate to close for the Royals when they lost Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery, since Broxton has closed before.  But on a young, up-and-coming team, it might make more sense to see if someone like Greg Holland or Aaron Crow can do the job.  Also, if Broxton does pitch well, he would be an ideal candidate to get traded to a contender later this summer.

Of course, an argument could be made that you don’t necessarily want to have your best relief pitcher as the closer.  Depending on how a bullpen is managed, it is quite possible that a set-up guy will pitch in a lot more pressure innings than a closer ever will.  The role of protecting a one run lead in the 8th is probably more important than trying to save a three run game in the 9th.  I highly recommend checking out this recent article by Jonah Keri where he argues that saves should be replaced by a more meaningful stat for relief pitchers.  I think he’s right, but I also think most MLB managers will continue to go with their pre-appointed closer whenever there is a three run game in the 9th inning.  So figuring out who that guy will be is still a crucial part of fantasy baseball.