Archive for August, 2012

Moonshiners Make a Splash

Sunday, August 19th, 2012

Moonshiners catcher Miguel Montero

During the 2011 regular season, there was not a single trade completed in the DTBL.  This year, things were back to normal with a handful of deals going down.  This was not a surprising development since, unlike last year, more than half of the teams were still in title contention by the time the trade deadline arrived earlier this week.  In total, five trades were completed.  Three of them involved the Moonshiners, who are trying to make this the second consecutive season with a first time DTBL champion.  Since I have not written about any of the these trades, I will recap them all right now, even the ones that were completed quite a while ago.

Mavericks/Darkhorses (June 6)

Mavericks get:  RP Matt Capps, P Matt Harrison

Darkhorses get:  P Ricky Romero, RP Daniel Bard

I don’t think it is too early to say this trade his been quite a disaster on both sides.  The Mavericks made this deal to try to get themselves another closer, but Matt Capps got hurt very soon after this trade and is yet to record a save for his new team.  Meanwhile, the key piece going the opposite direction, Ricky Romero, has continued his dreadful season.  The Darkhorses other acquisition, Daniel Bard, is buried in the minors where he can’t throw strikes.  It is unclear if he will ever be a viable MLB pitcher again.  As it turns out, the only player in this trade who has had any sort of value is Matt Harrison.  But he was only included because the Darkhorses needed to clear out a roster spot.  The Mavericks immediately released him.  The Moonshiners swooped in and signed him later and he has had a very productive season for them.

Mavericks/Gators (July 11)

Mavericks get:  2B Dan Uggla

Gators get:  C Salvador Perez

As Greg can confirm, I was not happy when I saw the details of this trade.  I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks, primarily because they were able to fill a glaring hole (Dee Gordon had just gone on the DL, leaving them short a middle infielder) without giving up a player that had much value to them.  But with hindsight being 20/20, this was actually a pretty solid move for the Gators.  Uggla is a batting average killer and isn’t even putting up particularly impressive power numbers anymore.  In fact, since this trade was made, Perez has one more home run than Uggla.  Perez is obviously a lot younger too, making him a better fit for the Gators future plans.  That’s not to say this has become a bad trade for the Mavericks though.  They had little use for Perez with Wieters and Santana anchoring their catching staff.  Perhaps Uggla will go on one of his patented hot streaks before this season ends.

Moonshiners/Demigods (July 26)

Moonshiners get:  RP Joe Nathan, 12th Round Pick

Demigods get:  2nd Round Pick

There was a lot of activity around the trade deadline involving closers, but this was the only deal that actually got done (not counting the Capps trade in June).  Out of contention for this season, the Demigods had little use for a 37 year old closer.  So they were able to get a second round pick for him.  If you are wondering what type of player this could turn out to be for the Demigods, here are two names of players picked in this year’s second round:  Mike Trout and Gio Gonzalez.  Maybe they won’t get that lucky, but there is too much opportunity there for them to have passed on a deal like this.  Meanwhile, this was the first sign that the Moonshiners are truly “all in” for 2012.  They are up to 5th in saves with a great opportunity to pick up another point before the year is over.

Moonshiners/Kings (August 15)

Moonshiners get:  C Miguel Montero, P Edwin Jackson

Kings get:  P Dan Haren, 3B David Freese

This was probably the biggest trade made this season, in part because it was the only one involving two teams in the championship chase.  In fact, to see two teams so close to each other in the standings make a trade this big this late in the season is quite rare.  The Moonshiners needed to find a catcher after losing both of their regulars (J.P. Arencibia and Mike Napoli) to injuries.  Not only were they able to find one, but they got an upper echelon receiver in Montero.  The Kings could afford to deal  him because they had two other good, young catchers on their roster (Jonathan LuCroy and Wilin Rosario).  On the flip side, the Kings have been struggling to find effective starting pitching all season.  In many ways, Haren fits right in with the rest of the underachieving staff.  However, he probably has more upside than anyone in their rotation not named Verlander.  Although this was an attempt to get better now, the bigger upside for the Kings may be in the future.  Freese returns to his original DTBL team to fill a need at 3B, which has been a black hole since ARod got hurt.  Jackson could wind up being a huge pickup for the Moonshiners too, even though he was probably considered the least valuable player in the deal.

Moonshiners/Darkhorses (August 15)

Moonshiners get:  OF Alex Rios, 11th Round Pick

Darkhorses get:  C Mike Napoli, 4th Round Pick

The last trade, completed within the last couple hours before the deadline, was what the Moonshiners hope to be the final piece of their puzzle.  They acquired the red-hot Rios for an injured catcher and a draft pick swap.  Earlier this year, nobody would have guessed that a Napoli/Rios swap would lead to the team acquiring Napoli also receiving the advantage in a draft pick exchange.  But it has been a disappointing, and now injury hampered season for Napoli.  He could be a key addition for the Darkhorses though as he is capable of supplying big time power from a very weak position.  But for this season, Rios is obviously the player with more value.  He is having a very productive season, following a truly dreadful 2011.  The recent trend points to good seasons in even numbered years and poor seasons in odd years.  So we’ll have to see what he provides the Moonshiners next year.  But in the mean time, he could be a huge addition for the final month and a half of 2012.

Finally, I want to end with a follow up to my previous blog post, which focused on the Stephen Strasburg situation.  I knew this was going to be a big story, but didn’t expect major features coming out from every corner of the sports world the last few weeks.  It has been discussed on nearly every sports program and web site.  What I find fascinating is that the people who seem to have the most to lose (short term) from a Strasburg shutdown (the Nationals, their fans, and the DC sports media) seem to be the only ones who actually support the shutdown.  Meanwhile, the so-called experts outside of DC seem to be unanimously opposed to the shutdown.  This is almost exactly the opposite of what I expected.  Hearing Rob Dibble and Tim McCarver give dimwitted declarations of opposition to the shutdown actually has me reconsidering my position.  Do I really want to be on their side of this argument?

The Strasburg Dilemma

Sunday, August 5th, 2012

Mavericks pitcher Stephen Strasburg

The most common baseball related question being asked here in DC these days is will they or won’t they?  As in, will the Nationals actually shut down Stephen Strasburg in the middle of a pennant race with his team trying to reach the playoffs for the first time since they moved to DC and only the second time in franchise history?  I gather that it is one of the biggest stories in all of baseball as well.  Since I have seen most of Strasburg’s starts this year, either in person or on TV, I have certainly developed my own opinion on the matter.  So I figure I should put myself on the record before the story reaches its final chapter.  I’ll touch on the fantasy implications as well, but only briefly.

I believe it would be a mistake to shut Strasburg down in September, but with some significant caveats which I will get to in a bit.  Shutting him down would seriously jeopardize the team’s chances of post-season success, which should be the ultimate goal of every MLB franchise.  If there was hard evidence that limiting a young pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery is always the right answer, then perhaps I would have delayed the start of Strasburg’s season.  But what I would not do is go into the playoffs without my best pitcher, if he is healthy, and if I thought my team had a very good chance of making a World Series run.

First, a little history for those of you who may not follow the Nationals all that closely.  Since the Expos moved to Washington in 2005, the franchise has mostly been the laughingstock of the league.  They finished in last place in five of their first six seasons, highlighted by MLB worst records in 2008 and 2009, their first two seasons in a new ballpark.  They lost 102 and 103 games in those dreadful campaigns.  Of course, those seasons also led to them receiving the first overall pick in the draft in consecutive years, which they used to select a couple guys you may have heard of:  Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.  They could not have picked two better years to be so terrible.  Yet, just having some of the best young prospects on the roster doesn’t make a team a winner.  The Nationals still had a lot of improving to do, to erase the stench of losing.

Mid-way through that dreadful 2009 season, one of the Nats promising young pitchers, Jordan Zimmermann, tore a ligament in his elbow and was lost for over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  The following summer, Strasburg burst onto the scene dominating Major League hitters right from the start as he struck out 14 batters in his MLB debut.  It was a magical summer, but it all came crashing down when Strasburg also succumbed to a torn elbow ligament in late August.  Coincidentally, the date in which it was diagnosed that Strasburg would need Tommy John surgery was the date Zimmermann made his first MLB start following the same surgery.

Part of the reason why the Strasburg debate is what it is, is because the Nats have a blueprint to follow with Zimmermann.  Right from the start of the 2011 season, Zimmermann was put on a very strict, and very public, 160 innings limit for the season.  When he reached that mark in early September, the Nationals shut him down and he did not pitch again until this year’s spring training.  His recovery has been a huge success, as he has arguably been the most consistent starter in the Nationals’ MLB-best rotation this year.  So why wouldn’t the Nats follow the exact same plan with Strasburg?  Well, there is one significant difference.  The Nationals entered 2011 with extremely low expectations following another last place finish and had no intention of being a playoff contender, especially with Strasburg set to miss most of the season.  Sure enough, they were not a playoff contender, although they did win 80 games for the first time since 2005.  But they were essentially out of the race by the time Zimmermann reached his innings limit, so there was absolutely no reason not to stick to the plan.

Strasburg successfully returned to the big leagues for a handful of starts in September of 2011 and was named the Opening Day starter for 2012, a year in which the Nationals hoped to make their first legitimate run at the playoffs since moving to DC.  Perhaps even exceeding their own expectations, they have had a remarkable season in which they have been in first place in the NL East most of the year, and even had the best record in baseball as recently as a couple weeks ago.  So it is almost certain that the Nationals will either be in a playoff spot, or very close to it, when Strasburg reaches whatever limit the Nationals have prescribed.

It should be noted that, unlike with Zimmermann, the Nationals have never publicly stated what Strasburg’s limit is, just that he will be shut down at some point.  General Manager Mike Rizzo has spoken on this topic many times.  He has used phrases like “eye test”, which could lead one to believe that there is an outside chance they will not shut Strasburg down at all, but he has also stated very clearly that a shutdown will occur.  It is anyone’s guess when this will be though.  Some have speculated 170 innings, maybe even 180.  These are nothing more than guesses.

As I stated up top, I think it would be a mistake to shut down Strasburg, making him unavailable for a post-season run.  My primary reason for this opinion is because I believe the Nationals could be jeopardizing the best opportunity they will ever have to get to the World Series.  They have a very young team with up-and-coming stars, and will possibly be a pennant contender for years to come.  But nothing is guaranteed in baseball.  The Nationals play in a division full of teams that meet at least one of these three criteria:  a recent run of success, a big market, a willingness to spend large sums of money.  So just because the future looks bright for the Nats doesn’t mean they are any sort of lock to make the post-season for years to come.  In fact, I would bet heavily against it.  Do you think Phillies, Red Sox and Marlins fans expected their teams to be below .500 right now?  With an injury here or there, or a bunch of players failing to live up to expectations, that could very well be the Nationals next year or the year after.  Unless you are the Yankees, you just can’t bank on a playoff appearance every single season.

With the additional wild card slot being added this year, I think we are going to find that winning your division is absolutely critical to advancing in the post-season.  Those wild card teams are going to have to burn their best pitcher in that one game playoff, giving them a significant disadvantage against the league’s best team in the Division Series.  So building on what I just wrote, teams are not going to want to mess around with their opportunities as division champs.  If the Nationals played in a weak division, perhaps they should like their chances of several division titles in upcoming years, but that just might not be realistic.  I will grant that the post-season can be a bit of a crap-shoot anyway, but I do think the new playoff configuration is going to make it a lot easier for the best teams to advance to the World Series, possibly the only redeeming aspect of adding more teams to the playoffs.

So building upon that, not only should the Nationals not want to weaken their playoff roster for this season, they also need to make sure they actually win the division.  That is hardly a foregone conclusion.  The Braves are just three games behind them right now and are playing as well as anyone outside Cincinnati.  It is quite possible the Nationals are going to need every win they get in September, so trading a handful of Strasburg starts for John Lannan starts could be costly if they fall into one of the dreaded wild card spots.

With Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, I believe the Nationals would be the favorites to win the NL pennant this year.  Great starting pitching is the best recipe for success in the playoffs, especially in the National League.  Without Strasburg, sure the Nats will still have a solid rotation with a chance to advance in the playoffs, but why would you want to reduce your chances?

So far, I have only talked about this from a team perspective, where as the arguments for shutting Strasburg down are about the long term health of the player.  This is where I start throwing in some caveats to my opposition of the shutdown.  I think the Nationals organization should, and will, closely monitor Strasburg in September.  If he shows signs of tiring, or general ineffectiveness for a stretch of starts, then I would be on board with pulling the plug.  If he isn’t going to be the dominating pitcher we have seen for most of his career, then there is no reason to risk it, and they might even be better off without him.  However, if he continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball right through the end of the season, I don’t see any reason to end his season prematurely.

I have mixed feelings about the threat of doing long term damage to Strasburg by allowing him to throw 200 or more total innings this year.  Of course, the more a pitcher pitches, the more likely he is to get hurt.  But isn’t that true of all pitchers?  Is the concern because he is coming back from Tommy John surgery, because he is only 24 years old, or some combination of the two?  I don’t think there is enough data yet on pitchers returning from Tommy John to make a definitive call on what number of innings/pitches is safe.  There have been plenty instances where players have returned and been every bit as good as they were before they got hurt, with no restrictions.  Just look at the recent outings by Adam Wainwright, who had his surgery seven months after Strasburg.  I don’t think there is any talk of shutting him down this year.

Now, protecting young pitchers is a different story.  Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci has written about this on several occasions, demonstrating how detrimental it can be to pitchers’ long term success if they drastically surpass their previous career high in innings pitched.  This is a valid argument, and is certainly applicable to Strasburg who has never thrown more than 120 innings in a year.  But this applies to several other young pitchers who are likely to be in the heat of pennant races this fall too.  Chris Sale of the White Sox and the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn immediately come to mind.

So I accept that there is some risk in letting Strasburg pitch all the way to the end of the Nationals season, whenever that may be.  But I believe the potential reward outweighs the risk.  And I don’t think I’m being too callous about this either, since the player himself is almost certainly willing to take that risk to have the opportunity to pitch in the post-season for the first time in his career.  One thing to keep in mind is that these are professional athletes who are being paid millions of dollars.  That doesn’t mean that teams should abuse their pitchers all in the name of winning, but ultimately one would like to think the reason why they are making all of that money is to help their teams win championships.  I believe Stephen Strasburg could help the Nationals do that right now.

What do I expect will happen?  Well, the Nationals have given themselves some leeway by wisely not publicly stating what the innings limit is, or when exactly Strasburg’s season will end.  I think he will continue to pitch well past 160 innings, assuming he is still pitching effectively.  Since I am willing to take Mike Rizzo on his word, I will guess that they will pull the plug at some point.  Perhaps mid-September as he approaches 170-180 innings.  And if that does happen, I will give Rizzo a lot of credit for having the guts to stick to the plan.  But it is not the decision I would make.

Finally, this decision could have a major impact on our league as well.  The Mavericks are very much alive in the title race, but they cannot afford to lose any of the pitching points they currently have.  Strasburg’s numbers will be hard to replace, especially in strike outs.  To make matters worse for the Mavericks, they officially lost Neftali Feliz for the remainder of the season as he, too, has now had Tommy John surgery.  It’s probably a good thing that these decisions on pitchers’ limits are left to professionals rather than fantasy baseball GMs though.

So there are my two cents.  Maybe I’m being a little selfish because I’m hoping to see Strasburg pitch in playoff games at Nationals Park this October.  But since the Nationals are not my #1 team, I think I am capable of forming a reasonably objective opinion on this matter.  I won’t be one of the irate fans when Strasburg is nailed to the bench in October, but those people will exist.  Hopefully, Strasburg will have other opportunities to pitch in the post-season in years to come, but nothing is guaranteed, especially for a franchise that is mostly known for its futility.