Archive for March, 2013

2013 Season Preview: Part I

Saturday, March 30th, 2013

Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman

Last year, Marc provided some very interesting team previews based on stats from multiple projection systems.  I have decided to do something similar this year, however, due to time constraints, I only used a single set of projections:  ZiPS.  I’m not an expert on these different projection models, so I have no idea if ZiPS was the best choice, but that’s what I went with.  ZiPS does not do saves projections (or if they do, it isn’t available on FanGraphs), so I used Steamer Projections for that category only.  I could write a very lengthy article on why these stat projections aren’t the greatest for predicting fantasy results, so take all of these projections with several grains of salt.  However, I also don’t like to make enemies by publishing my own predictions, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

Here is a brief explanation of my methodology.  I used the projections for all 28 players on each team’s roster to compute team totals in all 10 of the categories we use.  However, I didn’t want to leave it at that since there are a bunch of differences in the composition of the extra five players on each roster.  For example, it would figure that teams with a bench full of hitters would outpace teams with mostly extra pitchers in the offensive counting categories (HR, RBI, R, SB).  So what I decided to do was to multiply the team totals in those four categories by the ratio of 14 over the total number of offensive players on the roster.  Theoretically, this would mean I’m only counting full season stats for 14 players, the regular DTBL batting roster size.  I did this rather than simply subtracting players who figure to spend part/most of the season on the bench because I didn’t want to make any personal predictions on roster moves.  The biggest flaw in doing it this way is that every player contributes to the team projections, even if they aren’t expected to see much playing time.  But I think this is better than adding full season projections for every single player.

My methodology was slightly different for pitchers.  Doing it the same way as I did for hitters would have been slightly problematic because it would cause significant differences between teams with extra starting pitchers vs. teams with only extra relievers.  So instead, I calculated what the average number of innings pitched was for each DTBL team in 2012 (1,239) and assumed each team would come close to that number again this year.  So the ratio used to multiply the counting categories (W, SV, K) was 1,239 divided by the team’s projected innings total.  The biggest flaw here is with teams that plan on using an extra starting pitcher in a RP slot.  It is safe to assume those teams will accumulate more innings, but these projections assume the team IP totals are all the same.  So that is another caveat to consider when diagnosing your team’s projections.

Despite the flaws, I do believe these projections can be useful in identifying relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.  Perhaps I will share the full projections when I finish with the team previews.  In these previews, I will provide the team’s projected ranking in each category as well as the overall predicted order of finish.  Then I will give some of my own thoughts about the team, and perhaps explain some instances where I feel the projections are wrong.  I will go in the reverse order of the predicted standings, doing a few teams each day for the next few days.  So, without further ado, here is the team projected to finish in last place…

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
  • Wins – 6th (9th)
  • Saves – 1st (2nd-T)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (4th)
  • Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

Obviously, nobody wants to be last in a projection.  However, despite the 10th place prediction, there are encouraging signs for the Gators.  First, they just completed their best draft in many years, acquiring some very good, young talent with players like Yoenis Cespedes, Will Middlebrooks and Andrelton Simmons.  Next, they are projected to finish with 41 points, which would be an improvement over last season.  They have had the worst offense in the league three years running, but there is a decent chance that streak will stop this year.  Almost all of the offensive players they drafted this year will be upgrades over their counterparts from 2012.  The pitching projections are a little surprising because the Gators had a very underrated staff a year ago.  They still have the deepest stable of closers in the league.  Their rotation is a big question mark, but there is potential to meet or exceed last year’s numbers.  I think this will be a much improved Gators squad, even if the place of finish doesn’t necessarily reflect that.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
  • Wins – 2nd (8th)
  • Saves – 10th (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
  • Total Points – 9th (7th)

Summary:

Last year, the Demigods championship hopes were sabotaged by a weak pitching staff.  If these projections are to be believed, that could be the case again this year.  However, this is one team where my methodology for computing the pitching stats was harmful because it appears they will use a sixth starting pitcher (Brett Myers), meaning their wins and strike out totals should be higher than projected.  Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto form a pretty solid top three, but the rest of the staff will need to exceed expectations.  They only have one closer, Brandon League, who could lose his job any minute.  So saves appears to be a write off category.  Offensively, the Demigods have a solid squad, but they need to stay a lot healthier than they did last year.  Look for huge seasons out of Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey.  Freddie Freeman is a major breakout candidate too.  9th place would be a pretty big disappointment considering how much talent is on this roster.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
  • Wins – 9th (10th)
  • Saves – 3rd (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
  • Total Points – 8th (10th)

Summary:

It has been two long years since the Darkhorses 4-peat.  Last year in particular, was one long nightmare in which everything that could have possibly gone wrong did.  They nearly set the low water mark for total points and finished dead last in all five pitching categories.  There is no way to go but up from there.  And this team is a safe bet to do just that.  But the injuries are already starting to mount up, starting with the news that Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which came out not long after our roster cuts were made.  Relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Jonny Venters are also headed to the DL to start the year.  And on offense, Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez will miss significant time to begin the season.  Their healthy pitchers are mostly high strike out guys who hope to improve their ERA and WHIP numbers.  A strong comeback year for Tim Lincecum would go a long way towards fixing this team.  I’m not sure what to think about the Darkhorses offense, but we saw last year how quickly one young superstar can turn around an entire squad (Mike Trout, Mavericks).  The Darkhorses hope to get a similar boost from Bryce Harper.  He just may be up to the task.  Hopefully, these early injuries won’t bury the Darkhorses before they ever get started, but I think they will certainly improve upon last year’s disaster.

That’s it for tonight.  Tomorrow, I’ll run down at least three more teams and finish things up on Monday and Tuesday.

Enjoy tomorrow night’s MLB opener and have a happy Easter!

Posted in Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators | 3 Comments »

No Clowning Around

Monday, March 11th, 2013

Darkhorses outfielder Bryce Harper

Who should the Darkhorses have picked with the first selection in the 2013 DTBL Draft?  That’s a clown question, bro.  With one of the clearest cut decisions in recent memory, the Darkhorses selected 20 year old outfielder Bryce Harper.  The Nationals young phenom burst onto the scene last summer at the ripe age of 19 and proceeded to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.  He bounced back from a mid-summer slump to tear the league apart on his way to a .270 average with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  The home run total was the second most by a teenager in MLB history.

A year after most of the league made the mistake of allowing Mike Trout to slip to the second round, the Darkhorses ensured that the same wouldn’t happen this time around.  Of course, Harper has much higher expectations heading into this season than Trout did a year ago since he has a roster spot locked up and is even expected to hit third in the lineup for one of the top World Series contenders.  Although both are legitimate five tool players, Harper does have a slightly different skill set than Trout.  Harper is projected to be the bigger power threat while Trout has unmatched speed on the bases and in the outfield.  The sky is the limit for Harper, and his bust potential seems extremely low.

Harper is only the second player to become a first overall selection in both the MLB and DTBL drafts.  Alex Rodriguez is the other, which makes it interesting that Harper is entering the league at the exact same time as ARod’s 16 year career with the Kings is coming to an end.  I’m sure the Darkhorses would be happy to get at least a decade and a half of service out of Harper.  I’m 99% positive that Harper was the youngest player to ever be drafted by a DTBL team in the first round (maybe any round), an honor he held for less than 24 hours (more on that later).  The Darkhorses are looking to bounce back from two straight disappointing, injury-riddled seasons.  Harper has the potential to quickly accelerate the rebuilding process, much like Trout did for the Mavericks a year ago.

Last year, the Gators had the tall order of trying to rebuild without the benefit of a first or second round pick.  This year, they held onto those picks and wisely used them to pick up a few of the best young players in the draft.  With the second overall pick, they selected Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who made an immediate impact in his first big league season, hitting several prodigious home runs early in the season.  He somewhat quietly proceeded to have an outstanding season that surely would have earned him a Rookie of the Year nod if it weren’t for some guy named Trout.  Cespedes slugged 23 home runs with 82 RBI and 16 steals.  Like Harper, he has big time power potential with the ability to add a bunch of stolen bases too.

If Kris Medlen can come anywhere close to matching his 2012 numbers, the Cougars might suddenly have one of the league’s top pitching staffs.  Medlen, a Tommy John surgery survivor, started last season in the bullpen, but then became nearly unhittable after moving into the rotation.  He won 10 games with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP.  The Cougars selected him with the third pick in the draft.  The Demigods then followed with another starting pitcher, Yu Darvish.  Along with Cespedes, Darvish was the other key foreign import to the big leagues last season.  He displayed overpowering stuff, striking out 221 hitters in just 190 innings.  He should help the Demigods recover from a season that was largely derailed by a shaky pitching staff.  The Choppers took the Cubs young first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, with the fifth pick.  Rizzo had been a highly touted prospect for a number of years, before finally breaking through with a solid season for his third MLB organization.  Rizzo figures to be a centerpiece in the Cubs lineup for some time to come.

For the most part, the top five picks were fairly clear cut.  I know those five players were the top five on my draft board, and I suspect I’m not alone.  But I felt there was a significant drop-off in available talent after those five.  Which was kind of fitting because the next five teams all came within an eyelash of winning the championship last year anyway.

For the second straight year, the Jackalope were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie.  With the sixth pick, they took second baseman Danny Espinosa, who spent the last two seasons with the Kings.  Espinosa spent almost the entire ’12 season on the Kings bench, but only because he was at a log jammed position.  He actually had a very solid year and provides significant power and speed for a middle infielder.  He seems to be getting better each year too.  Next, the Moonshiners selected closer Fernando Rodney, the obvious #1 relief pitcher on the board.  Rodney re-emerged as an elite closer for the Rays, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA.  Seventh is the earliest a relief pitcher has been selected since 2010.  But the Moonshiners were in desperate need of a second closer and only had two picks in the first rounds with which to acquire one.

For the fourth straight years, the Mavericks had multiple first round picks.  This time, they didn’t acquire the second one until just before they were on the clock with the eighth pick.  They dealt one member of their stable of first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for the ninth overall pick.  So with two consecutive picks, the Mavericks did what has become their trademark:  they selected two young prospects, second baseman Jurickson Profar and third baseman Manny Machado.  Both have big upside, but Machado figures to make a more immediate impact since Profar is temporarily without a position in Texas, behind Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.  Of course, this is a similar situation that Mike Trout was in a year ago.  Profar just turned 20 a few weeks ago, which is notable for a couple reasons.  First, I believe it makes him the youngest player in DTBL history (he’s a few months younger than Harper).  Next, he is the first DTBL player to have been born after the inaugural DTBL Draft in January of 1993.  So he’s actually younger than this league!  (Damn, we’re getting old)

For the second straight year, the Kings used the first round to try to fill their gaping hole at first base.  But this time, they did so by trading their pick for Ike Davis.  Davis got off to a horrific start in 2012, due in part to his slow recovery from valley fever, which he contracted during spring training.  But he rebounded in the second half of the season and turned into one of the leading home run hitters after the break.  He finished the season with 32 bombs.  Finally, the Naturals used the last pick of the first round to re-acquire catcher Victor Martinez.  Martinez missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL suffered over the previous winter.  The Naturals were clearly reluctant to let him go after holding him on the roster for the entire season.  However, when the opportunity came to pick him up again, they jumped all over it.  Although his catching days may be over, he will likely produce stellar numbers at a position that is extremely difficult to fill.

For the most part, there were few surprises in the first round.  And I honestly can’t criticize any of the picks.  The top five teams went with the best players available, while the second half of the round featured last year’s contenders fill holes and/or proceed with their successful draft strategies.

The pace of the draft has been great so far too.  We’re already into the fifth round at the four day mark, so I’d say we are well ahead of schedule.  Keep up the good work!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

My American Dream Team

Wednesday, March 6th, 2013

The 2013 World Baseball Classic began in Southeast Asia this past weekend.  The North American pools begin play tomorrow.  I’m a sucker for pretty much any international athletic competition, and baseball is my favorite sport, so it would seem only natural that I would be excited about the WBC.  But that’s not quite the case.  I will certainly watch it, but I will do so knowing that this is not the ideal way of crowning a true World Champion.

The flaws of the WBC are many, but #1 on the list for me is that a majority of the sport’s best players will not be participating, particularly those who could be representing the United States.  I don’t blame any of the individual players for not participating and I’m not sure there is anything MLB or the tournament organizers could do to change this, but it certainly hurts the tournament.

Team USA suffered a blow yesterday when they lost their presumed starting first baseman, Mark Teixeira, to a wrist injury.  He was replaced on the roster by Eric Hosmer.  Due to the last minute nature of Teixeira’s injury, I realize the options were probably quite limited in finding a replacement.  But if I were to compile a list of the top 10 American first basemen, I’m not sure Hosmer would make that list.  Meanwhile, a player who probably would rank ahead of him, Anthony Rizzo, is competing for Team Italy.  Don’t get me started on the ridiculousness of that…  But the point is, Team USA is clearly not as strong as they could be.  I decided to take a crack at compiling my ideal roster for the USA.  This team would be prohibitive favorites to win the competition, rather than just one of several countries with a decent shot at it.

Players who are actually on the USA’s WBC roster are italicized.

My starting lineup:

1.  Mike Trout, RF

2.  Andrew McCutchen, CF

3.  Ryan Braun, LF

4.  Prince Fielder, 1B

5.  Giancarlo Stanton, DH

6.  David Wright, 3B

7.  Troy Tulowitzki, SS

8.  Buster Posey, C

9.  Dustin Pedroia, 2B

Reserves:

Catchers – Joe Mauer

Infielders – Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist (just so I have someone who can back up any position)

Outfielders – Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton

Starting Pitchers:

Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, David Price

Bullpen (I’ll use a couple regular SPs out of the pen):

Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Motte, J.J. Putz, Matt Cain, Chris Sale, Glen Perkins, Tyler Clippard, David Hernandez, Jonny Venters

No other country could come close to putting together a roster with that sort of depth.  Not that it would guarantee victory in a tournament with so few games, but I’d take my chances with this squad.  Only eight of my choices are on the actual team, and none of them are starting pitchers.  No offense to Ross Detwiler, Ryan Vogelsong and Derek Holland, but they are quite a drop off from the rotation I compiled.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »