Archive for April, 2013

A Little Deja Vu

Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

Surprised by the Darkhorses quick start? Don’t think it can possibly last? Well, if history tells us anything about the Darkhorses, it’s that they bounce back rather quickly from rock bottom. 2012 was the third time in franchise history that the Darkhorses finished in last place. After finishing at the bottom in 2003, the Darkhorses jumped up to a third place finish in 2004, which at the time was their highest finish by a wide margin. Three years later, they made the ultimate jump in winning their first DTBL title (by 12 points) a year after finishing dead last. That kick-started four straight championship seasons. If the first three weeks of this season are any indication, the Darkhorses appear to be in the process of another remarkable turnaround.

Nobody wins a championship in April, but getting off to a good start is very important, and is especially rewarding for a team coming out of the abyss. Pretty much anything that could have gone wrong for the Darkhorses the last two years did. They have been decimated by injuries and have seen some of their star players fade into mediocre contributors at best. But this is a new year with new opportunities.

What makes the Darkhorses quick start especially impressive is that they haven’t exactly been a model of perfect health this year either. Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which forced the Darkhorses to waive him before the season started. Draft pick Jonny Venters was also released early because of arm trouble. Ryan Madson, Hanley Ramirez and Brian McCann are yet to make their 2013 debuts. Aramis Ramirez and Aaron Hill hit the DL shortly after the season began. So from a health standpoint, it appears to be more of the same for the Darkhorses. But fortunately for them, the guys who are in uniform are putting up some impressive numbers.

The Darkhorses roster doesn’t exactly blow you away with players off to white hot starts. But their two most recent first round picks have been the biggest reason for the team’s quick start. Matt Moore is starting to show why the Darkhorses spent their first pick of 2011 on him. He has already won four games with a miniscule 1.04 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, this year’s first overall pick, Bryce Harper, continues to live up to lofty expectations. He is hitting a smooth .366 with seven home runs.

Some other key contributors include newcomers Todd Frazier, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Ernesto Frieri and Tom Wilhelmsen. Basically their entire 2013 draft class. Some regression is likely, but so far, they have been getting great performances out of just about all of their picks.

Three hold-over players deserve mentioning: Adrian Gonzalez, Tim Lincecum and Jacoby Ellsbury. Gonzalez and Lincecum may not be quite the same caliber players they were a few years back, but at least they are helping the team again. Ellsbury appears to be healthy this year and is leading the league in stolen bases.

The Darkhorses currently lead the league by ten points. The Kings are the only team within 23 points of them. So yes, it is very early. But the Darkhorses are setting a strong pace. They have 41 1/2 batting points and 41 pitching points, so it has been a full team effort thus far. Usually, a bunch of teams exchange first place through the first month of the season. But the Darkhorses have held that top spot virtually the whole time. I believe the Kings are the only other team that has been in first place since the first week of the season, and that was a brief stay.

The Darkkhorses fast start has been impressive, but not terribly surprising given the franchise’s history. Let’s see if they can keep it up.

Posted in Darkhorses | No Comments »

2013 Season Preview: Part IV

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013

Mavericks pitcher Clayton Kershaw

We have reached the final two teams in this journey up the projected 2013 DTBL standings.  The two teams that remain are not huge surprises.  Although neither of them came out on top last year (they tied for second), an argument could be made that they were the best two teams in the league as the season ended.  The Mavericks may have won the league had they not run out of free agent signings, which caused them to play a few players short in the last several weeks of the season.  Meanwhile, the Kings finally overcame their starting pitching problems which plagued them through the first half of the season.  By the end of the year, their pitching was as good as anyone’s.  Interestingly, these two teams may have helped each other claim these top spots in the projections with a trade they made during the first round of this year’s draft.  The Mavericks dealt one of their extra first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for a first round pick.  The Mavericks used that pick to acquire another youngster, Manny Machado, to add to their impressive squad of blossoming stars.

Coincidentally, the standings through the first two full days of the 2013 season closely mimic the projected final standings, with the top four spots in the exact same order.  So here are the top two teams in those projections.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 5th (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
  • Wins – 3rd (4th-T)
  • Saves – 4th (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (7th-T)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd-T)

Summary:

The Kings had the best offense in the league last year, partly due to their incredible depth.  For example, they were so strong in the middle infield that they routinely used their DH slot there, and yet Danny Espinosa barely made the major league roster all season.  Espinosa was a first round pick this year.  Their middle infield is still a huge strength with Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes and Ian Desmond.  They essentially have the same roster of hitters as last year since they used draft picks to reacquire Michael Morse and Jonathan LuCroy.  So this should be a very strong hitting team again.  The questions come on the mound.  These projections have the Kings moving up to third in pitching points, which would be a significant improvement.  Their pitching will likely go as the Tigers go since 3/5th of their rotation is identical to Detroit’s (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez).  If Scherzer can continue to build on his great second half of ’12, this team will be in good shape.  The bullpen appears to be stronger now with three closers after going through most of last season with just two.  This is the 10th anniversary of the Kings last championship.  Perhaps this will be the year they become the league’s first five time champion.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 1st (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (5th)
  • Wins – 4th (4th-T)
  • Saves – 9th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (6th)
  • Total Points – 1st (2nd-T)

Summary:

As it turns out, the Mavericks are on top of the projected standings by a fairly wide margin.  They lead the way in batting points, pitching points, and obviously total points, ten points clear of the Kings.  I’m not particularly surprised by this result, because as I mentioned up top, this was probably the best team in the league at the end of last season.  It will be interesting to see if those pitching projections pan out.  If they do, the Mavs will win this league.  Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg are probably among the best three or four pitchers in the league.  The rest of their rotation is loaded with potential, but is somewhat unproven.  The bullpen is really the only weakness of the entire team, but only because it lacks well entrenched closers.  The offense can be summed up in two words:  Mike Trout.  If he even comes close to matching his ridiculous 2012 campaign, the Mavericks will probably lead the league in batting points.  But he has plenty of help.  Jason Heyward, Adam Jones, Edwin Encarnacion and Matt Wieters will look to build upon their breakout seasons.  Will one of their other young guys take it to the next level this year?  There are too many candidates to name.  By no means are they a lock though.  Young talent is often unpredictable.  If a bunch of these guys fail to meet expectations this season, there will be a whole slew of other teams breathing down their necks.  But I think it is fair to say the Mavericks are the 2013 title favorites.

Here is a look at the projected standings, with team totals in each category.  If you are wondering why the counting categories have decimal values, please go back to Part I of these previews where I explained my methodology.  Let me know if you would like me to share the full Google Doc with you so you can see the individual player projections as well.  Also, I apologize if the following table doesn’t look right.  This is my first attempt at embedding a Google Doc within a WordPress blog entry.  Hope it turns out!

Posted in Kings, Mavericks | 2 Comments »

2013 Season Preview: Part III

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013

Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton

Every MLB team has a game in the books now.  I don’t think we have learned anything we didn’t already know.  Good pitching tends to beat good hitting.  Pitchers usually have the edge early in the season, especially on the first couple days when the aces are on the hill.  Also, Clayton Kershaw and Bryce Harper are pretty good.  And as I’m writing this, some guy name Marwin Gonzalez just ended Yu Darvish’s perfect game bid with two outs in the bottom of the 9th.  Still, a decent Demigods debut for Mr. Darvish.

Now we’re getting to the heart of these 2013 season projections.  The top four contains the defending champions and three other teams that came within an eyelash of winning it all last year.  All four of these teams are likely to be in the hunt again this season.  Tonight, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish fourth and third place.  They happen to be the league’s last two champions.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (2nd)
  • Wins – 10th (3rd)
  • Saves – 5th (2nd-T)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 4th (1st)

Summary:

I hate to beat a dead horse, but here is yet another example of a team that should easily beat their projections in at least a couple categories, particularly the nearly impossible category to predict:  wins.  I would be shocked if David Price winds up as the only Naturals pitcher with more than 13 wins, which is the case in these ZiPS projections.  Matt Cain, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke and Price are going to team up for the third fewest wins in the league?  I don’t think so.  Their staff led them to the championship last year and are a decent bet to do the same this year.  What will be more interesting to follow is the progress of their offense.  With the obvious exception of Miguel Cabrera, several of the Naturals other top hitters underachieved a year ago.  Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton should cruise past their ’12 numbers.  Andrew McCutchen, a healthy Victor Martinez… this is a very impressive roster.  The Naturals hitting was the best in the league in 2011.  If they can combine their ’11 offense with their ’12 pitching, they will really be on to something.  And they certainly have the talent to do it.  Three teams better than this one?  We’ll see about that.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
  • Wins – 8th (7th)
  • Saves – 8th (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (1st)
  • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

Summary:

The Jackalope were unable to defend their title last year mostly because their offense was a huge disappointment.  These projections are encouraging for them in that it appears they should expect to bounce back near the top of the league in most hitting categories.  Only by Albert Pujols’ lofty standards would his ’12 season be considered a disappointment, but that it was.  Expect him to return to being one of the top fantasy players in the league.  Maybe not THE top player though.  That honor might belong to Jackalope teammate Ryan Braun.  Giancarlo Stanton is vying to join that discussion too, although it will be interesting to see how much he gets to hit with Placido Polanco hitting behind him for the Marlins.  The Jackalope have been carried by a nearly unbeatable rotation the last few years.  But they may not be quite as strong this year.  There are serious concerns about Roy Halladay’s rapidly decreasing velocity.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee remain two of the most dependable pitchers in the game though.  One note on the Jackalope pitching projections.  They assumed Aroldis Chapman would be a starter this year.  It is debatable whether his return to the bullpen will be a net positive or negative for the Jackalope, but it certainly puts these rankings into question.  Regardless, the Jackalope have the hitting and pitching to compete for another title this year.

That leaves two.  You know who they are now.  But you’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see who are the projected 2013 DTBL champions.

Posted in Jackalope, Naturals | No Comments »

2013 Season Preview: Part II

Monday, April 1st, 2013

Cougars pitcher Gio Gonzalez

Last year concluded with a frantic five team race for the title on the final day of the season.  But just two months prior to that, there were as many as seven teams right in the hunt for the championship.  I’m not saying that will happen again this year, but there is precedent for all of the following teams to be championship contenders, even if they don’t significantly exceed their projections.  These are the teams that are projected to finish seventh up to fifth place.  Actually, the computed standings had two teams tied for sixth place, so I will just review them alphabetically.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th-T)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (7th)
  • Wins – 5th (6th)
  • Saves – 2nd (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (7th-T)
  • Total Points – 6th-T (6th)

Summary:

The Choppers are another team that could be expected to exceed their pitching projections.  For the second straight year, they might choose to use a sixth starting pitcher in a RP slot (Alexi Ogando).  Ogando isn’t likely to repeat Chris Sale’s ’12 season, but he could give the Choppers a nice win and strike out boost.  But they also have four closers on the roster, so they won’t be punting saves by any means.  Sale is their only elite starting pitcher, but they have a lot of intriguing guys who are capable of racking up strike outs, in particular.  On offense, it appears home runs will be their strength again this year.  Newcomer Anthony Rizzo will attempt to pick up the slack early on while Curtis Granderson is on the shelf.  Jose Bautista needs to stay healthy this year.  B.J. Upton appears to be primed for a huge season, in which case he could give the Choppers a boost in power and speed categories.  It has been a while since the Choppers were a serious title contender, but they will have a chance this year if their starting pitching pans out.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (1st)
  • Home Runs – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (6th)
  • Wins -  7th (2nd)
  • Saves – 7th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (3rd)
  • Total Points – 6th-T (4th)

Summary:

And here we have our first appearance from one of the “Big 5″ who chased the title on the final day of the season.  This might be the most surprising projection of all.  Let’s not forget that the Moonshiners came within 1 1/2 points of winning the title last year and were the league’s most balanced team.  They were the only team to accumulate over 30 batting and pitching points.  So why the gloomy forecast for this season?  Well, they only had one draft pick in the first three rounds this year, so they didn’t have an opportunity to significantly pad their projections with one or two acquisitions.  But that doesn’t mean this team won’t contend.  The biggest key is for R.A. Dickey to not take an enormous step backwards like he is projected to do.  Dickey, Jered Weaver and Yovani Gallardo lead the rotation that will be a bit thin until Brandon Beachy returns from Tommy John surgery.  The bullpen only has two definite closers, but first round pick Fernando Rodney is good enough to make sure they aren’t buried in saves.  They have solid players across the board on offense, so I just don’t see them finishing in the bottom half of the league in batting points.  Prince Fielder, David Wright and Desmond Jennings are three players who I expect to easily exceed their projected numbers.  I strongly believe the Moonshiners will contend for their first DTBL title again this year.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (8th-T)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
  • Wins -  1st (1st)
  • Saves – 6th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (5th)
  • Total Points – 5th (8th)

Summary:

Now here is a real sleeper candidate.  The Cougars have not finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  But this definitely looks like a team that is capable of making a big leap forward.  The most interesting thing in these projections is the Cougars shift from a speed to a power team.  In light of some spring training injuries, I think fourth in home runs is a little unrealistic, but they certainly do have more power on the roster.  They will need to overcome early injuries to Mark Teixeira and Brett Lawrie though.  Assuming he isn’t out too long, expect a big bounce-back season from Lawrie to help justify his status as the #1 pick in last year’s draft.  The pitching staff is very good.  I don’t think it is possible for Kris Medlen to repeat his performance as a starter last year, but he won’t need to.  Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright join Medlen as four legitimate aces.  5th place may seem like an awfully optimistic prediction for this team, but I think it is quite possible they will finally make their return to the top half of the standings.

I didn’t get around to doing any previews yesterday, so I’m a day behind schedule.  My new goal is two more teams tomorrow (Tuesday) and then the top two championship contenders (according to the projections) on Wednesday.  I hope you are enjoying the first full day of baseball!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Moonshiners | No Comments »