Archive for August, 2013

Biogenesis Fallout

Tuesday, August 20th, 2013

Free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez

It has been about two weeks since all of the Biogenesis related suspensions were handed out by Major League Baseball, so I am very late to the party.  For the most part, I am tired of the story and have nothing particularly insightful to add.  But there are pretty significant baseball implications here, so I feel the need to write a little bit about it.  Fortunately, I will be able to quickly bury this post with a much more interesting article (to me) coming in the next day or two.  In case you didn’t notice, there was a pretty big trade made before the deadline last week.  But first, here are some of my Biogenesis thoughts along with the impact the suspensions will have on the DTBL.

I have to admit that I was very skeptical of the entire Biogenesis story when it was made public earlier this year.  It seemed far too coincidental that many of the players being implicated in the story just happened to be most of the players who had tested positive for PEDs and/or served drug related suspensions last year.  As it turns out, there was a good reason for this.  All of these players were receiving their PEDs from the same source:  Tony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic.  Many have stated that these suspensions and subsequent admissions of guilt are a black eye on the sport of baseball.  I don’t see it that way.  In fact, I think it is somewhat encouraging that most of the players suspended in the last year and a half had ties to this now defunct clinic.  This is not to say I believe PEDs have been completely eradicated from the league now that Biogenesis is no more.  But I believe these suspensions are a positive step towards cleaning up the game.  Cheaters are getting caught and punished.  That is more than could be said as recently as five years ago.  Also, while there is still plenty of room for improvement in the drug testing and punishment program, MLB is so far ahead of the other three major professional sports leagues in this regard, it isn’t even worth comparing.  That MLB seems to take far more heat than the NFL for having a PED problem is completely ridiculous.

To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of the Biogenesis scandal has been the way it has been covered by the media.  Not only the overwhelming number of articles on the topic, but the extent to which specific guilty players have been skewered as cheaters and liars.  They are indeed both of those things, but this isn’t new information.  Almost everyone besides die-hard Brewers fans and Aaron Rodgers knew Ryan Braun was guilty of taking PEDs when he avoided a suspension on a pure technicality following a failed drug test.  The fact that he is now admitting his guilt after accepting a 65 game suspension is not particularly interesting news, in my opinion.  He certainly owes a major apology to the sample handler whose character he attacked, among allegedly much worse things, as the Braun drama continues.  And the Brewers fans who have stuck by Braun throughout his career have every right to be angry.  But other than that, I don’t see Braun as much more of a villain than any of these other suspended players, past or present.  Almost all of these guys attempted to do whatever they could to avoid punishment, just as Braun did.  Heck, somewhat hilariously, Melky Cabrera tried to create an entire web site to prove his innocence.  But he seems to have been forgiven as he is now yesterday’s news.  Braun and Alex Rodriguez just happen to be the biggest names in this story, and are therefore receiving the most attention.

And then there is ARod and his pending 211 game suspension.  I am really curious to see what kind of dirt MLB has on him, because on the face of it, the largest drug related suspension in league history seems a bit harsh for a player who has not tested positive under the current drug testing regime.  I have no opinion on how much of a suspension he deserves without knowing exactly what he did, but again I state that almost all of these players have taken steps to try to duck the long arm of the law.  Just how serious ARod’s offenses were in comparison will be interesting to see.  I would hope the fact that pretty much everybody wants him to just go away, including his own employer, had no bearing on the decision to give him this unprecedented year and a half ban.  Just because everyone hates him isn’t enough of a reason to cast him out to sea.  But the willingness of the rest of these players to accept their punishments leads me to believe that MLB’s evidence is pretty solid.  So the ARod saga continues.

Now for the DTBL impact of Biogenesis.  Despite some huge names going down in this scandal, it doesn’t appear to be particularly likely to swing the DTBL title race in one direction or another.  Almost all of the suspended players happen to be on non-contending teams.  Losing Braun is just another major blow in a nightmare season for the Jackalope.  They will finish this season without the two main faces of their franchise (Braun and Albert Pujols, who was just ruled out for the season due to his foot injury).  The Moonshiners will be without the services of Jhonny Peralta, but they too are in the midst of a disappointing season.  Nelson Cruz will be out of the Gators lineup for 50 games.  The Gators currently sit in last place, but seem to be building a more competitive team for the future.  Losing Cruz won’t really change much.  Ditto for Everth Cabrera and the Demigods.  The one suspended player on a contending team is Jesus Montero of the Naturals.  However, he had been sent to AAA a couple months ago and didn’t figure to play much of a role down the stretch for the Naturals anyway.  Finally, Alex Rodriguez has been a free agent all season after the Kings finally cut him last winter.  Interestingly enough, there is a chance a DTBL team might take a flyer on him before the year is over since he is finally healthy and doesn’t figure to have his appeal ruled upon until very late in the season, if not after it.  Despite receiving the biggest punishment of any Biogenesis player, he may be the only one on a DTBL active roster in September.  Well, maybe Melky Cabrera (Gators) too since he did not receive any additional punishment having served his suspension last year.  Same for Yasmani Grandal (Naturals) , but he’s out for the year with a knee injury anyway.

To close things out, in regards to Biogensis, I am going to steal a line from The Band Perry:  All I want to be is done!

Mavericks’ Mound Masters

Sunday, August 4th, 2013

Mavericks pitcher Matt Harvey

There is a commonly held belief in baseball that it is better to build a team around offense and every day players due to the unpredictable nature of pitching.  While I tend to agree with this, I think it is far less relevant in fantasy baseball and certainly hasn’t been the case in this league.  In the past ten years, this league has gone through three distinct eras of a single team dominating the league in pitching for an extended period of time.  We have not seen this sort of consistency on the batting side of things, with no team leading the league in batting points for more than two consecutive years in league history.

Starting in 2003, the Mavericks led the league in pitching points three out of four years, winning two DTBL titles in that stretch.  Then came the Darkhorses reign from 2007-2009 where they won the championship and led the way in pitching all three seasons.  Finally, the Jackalope topped the league in pitching the past three seasons, including one league title.  But it appears we are about to start a new era of mound domination.  The Mavericks are back on top of the pitching standings, and when you look at their rotation, it is hard to see them giving up that spot anytime soon.

The Mavericks team pitching stats are nearly unbelievable.  They are on pace to obliterate the league record for team ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  Even with nearly two months to go, it is virtually inconceivable that they could lose their spot at the top of those three categories, and only slightly conceivable that they WON’T wind up as the new team record holder in each category.  Here’s a look at each of the three.  Their 2.63 ERA leads the league by more than 3/4 of a run per 9 IP.  The all-time record is 2.83 by the 2011 Jackalope.  So they are 0.20 below the best single season mark in league history.  Next, their 1.03 team WHIP is completely absurd.  You wouldn’t have to go back very far to find seasons where no single qualifying pitcher had a WHIP that low, forget an entire staff (2008 to be exact).  The record in that category also belongs to the ’11 Jackalope at 1.12.  Finally, they entered today with 962 strike outs, 93 clear of second place.  That puts them on pace for approximately 1,390 strike outs at year’s end.  The record in that category is 1,333 by the Mavericks’ own ’07 squad.  If they keep up the pace in these three categories, there will be very little room for debate when it comes to the greatest pitching staff in league history.

But here’s the strange part.  Despite all of those eye-popping numbers, the Mavericks only find themselves in third in wins.  If there was ever a staff that proves how useless the wins category is for evaluating the quality of pitchers, this is the one.  The main reason for the low win total is because most of the Mavericks’ pitchers play for weak offensive MLB teams and have been the victims of criminally poor run support.  I’ll get to more of that in a bit.  They are also only fifth in the saves category, but that figures to change soon since they are one of the few teams with four current closers in the bullpen.

According to ESPN’s fantasy baseball player rater, two of the top three pitchers in baseball this year are Mavericks:  Clayton Kershaw (#1) and Matt Harvey (#3).  If it weren’t for poor run support (and bullpen, in Harvey’s case), they would probably be the top two and would also likely be the first two pitchers selected if we were to re-draft all of our teams today.  They also happen to be #1 and #2 in the league in both ERA and WHIP, with Kershaw leading the way in both.  Kershaw’s 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP probably won’t be enough to break the all-time records held by Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, but those numbers would both be the lowest in the league since Pedro’s ridiculous 2000 season.  Harvey’s 2.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at either.  And he leads Kershaw in strike outs (172 to 161), but trails Yu Darvish for the league lead.  Quite simply, these are your top two Cy Young candidates, even ahead of Max Scherzer and his 16 wins.

Then there is Stephen Strasburg.  In many ways, this has felt like a disappointing season for last year’s #2 overall pick.  But he has a 3.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and more than a strike out per inning.  Don’t let the win total fool you.  Strasburg is one of the best pitchers in baseball too.  Perhaps flying under the radar due to the aforementioned trio of stud pitchers is Mat Latos.  Latos is tied with Kershaw for the team lead in wins with 10 and has more strikeouts than Strasburg.  Then there is Matt Garza who has posted an ERA under 2.00 in his partial time on the Mavericks major league roster.  And don’t forget injured Alex Cobb who was looking like another one of the best up-and-coming pitchers before getting struck in the head by a line drive in June.  If he’s able to fully recover from that, the Mavericks will have an embarrassment of riches and some tough decisions to make this winter.  No matter what they decide, this staff looks unbeatable for the near future.  The rest of the owners may not want to read the following list of the ages of the Mavericks starting pitchers:  Kershaw 25, Harvey 24, Strasburg 25, Latos 25, Garza 29, Cobb 25.

Going back to the wins category, where the Mavericks currently sit in third place, the reason is clear:  poor run support.  Strasburg’s meager five wins are far more of a reflection on his Nationals teammates than himself.  He has received just 2.76 runs of support per start, trailing only Chris Sale among all starting pitchers for worst run support.  Kershaw has managed to win 10 games despite being eighth on that same list.  With even average support, he would probably have 15 wins by now.  Harvey’s eight wins are also due to poor support, both offensively and by his bullpen.  Not that any of these guys are likely to suddenly receive great support, you would think their luck might turn around a bit before the year is over.

One minor issue for the Mavericks in their championship hunt could be one that plagued them a year ago as well:  a starting pitcher shutdown.  In case you have forgotten, the Mavericks lost Strasburg for most of the final month last season as the Nationals controversially decided to shut down their ace during the pennant race after reaching a previously established innings limit.  Strasburg is good to go this October, except it appears his team is unlikely to qualify for the playoffs.  But it remains to be seen if the Mets will put an innings limit on Matt Harvey this year.  They won’t have much to play for in September, so they could opt to shelve him after he gets over 200 or so innings.  But unlike Strasburg, this isn’t likely to cost him an entire month.  Also, the Mavericks figure to have a safe lead in all of the key categories in which Harvey can help them anyway.  Not to mention, they should have Cobb or Garza waiting in the wings to fill in.  So while the Strasburg shutdown certainly didn’t help the Mavericks championship chances last year, there is little worry of this situation repeating itself this year.  If the Mavericks fail to win the title, it won’t be because of their pitching.

In other news, it sounds like stuff is about to hit the fan in the Biogenesis case, possibly tomorrow.  I will begrudgingly write about this soon, even though I am tired of the story and don’t really want to hear about it anymore.  I will at least write about the potential impact on our league though.

Also, a reminder that the trade deadline is coming up soon.  Trades must be submitted and accepted by the end of August 15.  After that, no trades can be made until after roster cuts early next year.  If you are completing a trade which includes 2014 draft picks, both parties must confirm the deal with me via email.  I plan on rectifying the inability to trade future draft picks via the web site before next season.