Archive for March, 2014

2014 Season Preview: Part IV

Sunday, March 30th, 2014

Kings outfielder Carlos Gonzalez

We’ve reached the final part of the 2014 DTBL season preview.  Now it’s time to examine the two teams who are projected to finish at the very top of the standings.  This has a familiar ring to it.  A year ago, the Mavericks and Kings were projected to finish in the top two spots, with the Mavericks winning the title.  How did it turn out?  Well, they were the best two teams in the league, but the Kings just barely hung on for a one point victory.  So here we are and the Mavericks and Kings are once again projected to be the league’s two best teams.  They have been the two consistent title contenders for the past couple years.  Not surprisingly, they look like strong contenders again this year.  But will they be the league’s two best teams again this season?  And who will enter the year as the pre-season favorite?  Here are the final projections.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (1st)
  • Wins – 8th (4th)
  • Saves – 8th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (1st)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

No surprise to see the Mavericks in this spot, but how they are projected to get here is a little peculiar.  Last year, the Mavericks had quite possibly the best pitching staff in league history.  They broke records in ERA and WHIP on their way to a league high 46 pitching points.  Their offense was middle of the pack though.  This year, it’s their offense that is projected to be their strength.  There is an explanation for this switch, but I’m not sure I’m buying it.  Even though Matt Harvey may not pitch this season, their rotation is still unbelievably loaded with Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos and newcomers Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.  They are dealing with some injuries to this rotation right now, but assuming those don’t linger, they are a strong bet to have the league’s best rotation again.  The Mavericks have earned a reputation as the team most willing to take chances on young prospects in the draft.  This year, they took it to a new level though.  Every one of their first six draft picks made their MLB debuts last season.  How many of these six players wind up panning out will probably determine their fate because they will be counting on all of them this year.  Perhaps for comedy’s sake, they drafted Derek Jeter in the 11th round.  He is approximately the same age as their first six picks combined.  Anyway, these projections like the offense the Mavericks have assembled.  With Mike Trout and company, that makes perfect sense.  After a bunch of near misses, the Mavericks are a solid pick to win their first title since 2006.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 1st (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (3rd)
  • Wins – 1st (1st-T)
  • Saves – 3rd (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

The defending champs are projected to repeat in 2014.  The Kings broke a ten year title drought last season and appear to have the talent necessary to win again.  They have a strong roster from top-to-bottom and are slated to once again lead the league in batting points, but with a slightly better pitching staff this year.  The main reason for the pitching uptick is the bullpen.  They have a good chance to finish much higher in saves, although these projections are assuming Nate Jones will be given the White Sox closer job, which isn’t a sure thing.  Shelby Miller will try to fit in with the Tigers trio of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez.  Scherzer and Sanchez may have trouble duplicating the career years they had in ’13, but Verlander can certainly do better.  On the batting side of things, the Kings have retained the entire core of the group that easily led the league in batting points last year.  Plus, they have reacquired several former Kings:  Norichika Aoki, Michael Cuddyer and Coco Crisp.  Billy Butler will attempt to solidify the one weak spot for the Kings in recent years, first base.  Despite having the best offense in the league last year, the Kings did not have a true MVP candidate.  That could change this year if Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy for a full season.  It will be interesting to see if the change of scenery has a negative effect on Robinson Cano’s fantasy value.  The projections have the Kings winning the league by a healthy 11 points.  That seems very unlikely, but a second straight championship is certainly a reasonable expectation.

Here is a table containing the full projected standings and team totals in each of the 10 categories.  One thing that sticks out to me is the huge gap between the top five and bottom five teams in batting points.  It probably won’t actually turn out this way, but that does indicate quite a delineation between the haves and have-nots in hitting heading into the season.  Pitching projections tend to be much less reliable.

So that’s it.  I hope you found these previews to be interesting.  As I watch the snow fall outside, it is hard to believe tomorrow is Opening Day, but boy am I thankful for that.  Happy Opening Day to all of you!

2014 Season Preview: Part III

Saturday, March 29th, 2014

Demigods outfielder Carlos Gomez

Now we’re starting to get to the teams that absolutely expect to contend for the DTBL title this year.  The third part of the 2014 season preview is the one I’ve most been looking forward to writing.  Here we will examine two teams who are both expected to make huge leaps over their 2013 performances.  These were teams that finished in the bottom three of the league a year ago, but are projected to be serious title contenders this season.  It often comes as a surprise when teams jump this many places in the standings, but neither of these projections are surprising to me.  These teams had some very obvious, and easily remedied problems which should not resurface again in 2014.  In fact, their struggles a year ago could turn into blessings in disguise because they allowed them to grab absolute studs at the beginning of this month’s draft.  Here are the teams projected to finish fourth and third in the league this year.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (10th)
  • Wins – 4th (9th)
  • Saves – 7th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (10th)
  • Total Points – 4th (8th)

Summary:

In my recap of the first round of the draft, I hinted at the Demigods being a potential sleeper team this year.  I feel somewhat vindicated for that comment because of this projection.  The Demigods had the worst pitching staff in the league in 2013, at least in terms of pitching points.  But that was not truly indicative of the kind of talent on their staff.  Yu Darvish was the staff ace, earning the DTBL Rookie of the Year award.  The rest of the staff struggled due to injuries, poor performances and maybe some bad luck.  With the third pick in this year’s draft, they added the young and exciting Jose Fernandez, immediately boosting the prestige of the pitching staff.  He’ll join Darvish, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto to create a rotation that will surely earn them a lot more pitching points this year.  Unfortunately, several of those guys are dealing with injuries right now, but none appear to be too serious.  Trevor Rosenthal gives them a possible stud closer too, something they didn’t have last year.  The Demigods offense was actually quite good a year ago, so if they can maintain their form there, this should be a very good team.  Carlos Gomez will attempt to build on his ’13 campaign which saw him become an elite fantasy player.  This is one of the most talented squads the Demigods have ever put together.  Let’s see if it pays off.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (7th)
  • Wins – 6th (8th)
  • Saves – 9th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (10th)

Summary:

2013 was a season from hell for the Jackalope.  For quite some time now, they have relied on one of the league’s best pitching staffs combined with an offense carried by Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun.  But with those two players being rendered nearly useless last year, the Jackalope had no chance of being competitive.  Assuming those two are at least a decent facsimile of their past selves, last year should turn into just a blip on the radar of a perennial contender.  Their prize for finishing dead last was Yasiel Puig.  He will try to pick up some of the slack for whatever Pujols and Braun may have lost.  The Jackalope are projected to make a worst to first jump in home runs, and nearly the same in RBI and runs too.  Besides the players already mentioned, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton are a big reason for that.  This team has some serious star power.  The pitching staff is definitely not what it was a few years ago, but it is still quite strong.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are two of the most dependable pitchers on the planet.  The bullpen is a potential weakness though.  Aroldis Chapman will likely miss the first couple months of the season after getting hit in the head with a liner during a spring training game.  That leaves Jim Johnson as the only certain closer on the roster.  This team has a lot of players who will be fun to watch.  There is almost no chance of them finishing at the bottom of the standings again in 2014.

2014 Season Preview: Part II

Thursday, March 27th, 2014

Naturals outfielder Billy Hamilton

Much like the teams featured in part one of the 2014 DTBL season preview, the teams we will focus on in this section would probably be disappointed to exactly meet these projections this season.  Two of these teams made big steps forward a year ago and hope to take that last step to become title contenders this season.  The third team fell off the pace a bit last year following several years as one of the league’s elite franchises and likely hopes to return to that status this year.  Here is a look at the teams that are projected to finish in the middle of the pack, fifth through seventh place.  We’ll start with the projected seventh place finisher and then move to the two teams who are slated to tie for fifth.  They will be covered alphabetically.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
  • Wins – 3rd (5th)
  • Saves – 4th (6th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (7th)
  • Total Points – 7th (6th)

Summary:

Last year was an obvious improvement for the Darkhorses after finishing dead last in 2012.  They got off to a quick start and found themselves in first place for a good portion of the first quarter of the year.  But they faded a bit in the second half and finished in sixth place.  They have had a consistent core of veteran players for quite some time now, but this year they are augmenting that group with some very talented youngsters.  Their first three draft picks, Xander Bogaerts, Julio Teheran and Christian Yelich could help form the next core of great Darkhorses.  The projections show them as a slightly below average team with the bats and on the mound.  But there are reasons to be optimistic, in addition to those newcomers.  They have been extremely unlucky on the injury front in recent years, but seem to be entering this season in much better shape.  If Mike Minor is at full strength soon, he will slide into a very solid pitching staff.  On offense, they should benefit from a pair of left handed hitters moving to lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann).  Also, Bryce Harper is a solid bet to take his game to a new level this year.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (7th-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
  • Wins – 2nd (7th)
  • Saves – 1st (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (7th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (6th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (5th)

Summary:

The Cougars were one of the surprising teams of 2013, finishing in the top half of the league for the first time in years.  This year could be an opportunity for further improvement.  The projections tell a pair of conflicting tales though.  They are projected to lead the league in pitching points but to finish dead last in hitting.  So it makes sense for that to put them in the middle of the road overall.  Their offense was a huge surprise last year, largely carried by Chris Davis’ breakout season.  They will need a couple other guys to help carry the load though, especially if Davis can’t quite duplicate his ’13 season.  A bounce-back year from Josh Hamilton would help.  The pitching staff is very, very good.  Losing Kris Medlen to Tommy John surgery hurts, but they still have Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez and newcomers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer.  The bullpen has a chance to be the best in the league with four guys starting the year as closers.  Can this loaded pitching staff lead the Cougars into the championship mix?

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (2nd)
  • Wins – 9th (6th)
  • Saves – 6th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (3rd-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (4th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (4th)

Summary:

A fifth place finish would certainly be a disappointment for a team that has been a title contender each of the last five years.  But the Naturals have to be one of the hardest teams to predict for this season because they have the league’s biggest wild card on their roster:  first round draft pick Billy Hamilton.  ZiPS projects him to steal 68 bases, which is obviously a huge number, but seems well short of what he is capable of if he actually spends the whole year in the Reds starting lineup.  If he succeeds, the Naturals will lead the league in stolen bases after finishing ninth a year ago.  If he is unable to establish himself as a big league hitter, well, the Naturals still have Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, so I think they’ll be okay.  Pitching is probably a bigger question mark, but looking at their rotation and bullpen, it is filled with guys who everyone would want to have on their team.  If David Price pitches like he did in the second half of last year and Matt Cain shakes off a mediocre ’13 season, the Naturals will once again have one of the best staffs in the league.  And if that happens, this projection will look kind of foolish.

2014 Season Preview: Part I

Sunday, March 23rd, 2014

Choppers pitcher Chris Sale

For the third straight year, we’re going to preview the upcoming DTBL season by using player stat projections to determine the projected order of finish.  These are NOT my personal predictions, so don’t hold it against me if I have your team projected much lower than you expect.  For a primer, I recommend reading the first part of last year’s preview, where I explained the methodology for the projections.  I did it exactly the same way this year.  ZiPS projections were used for all categories, except for saves, where Steamer projections were utilized instead.

Here’s the cliff-notes version.  I used the projected stats for all players on each DTBL teams roster (post-draft) to compute team totals in all ten categories.  Because I don’t want to make any guesses on how you plan on utilizing your extra players, all 28 players are included, even those who you may plan on keeping in the minors all year.  Actually, that’s not quite true.  I decided to exclude the handful of pitchers who have recently undergone Tommy John surgery.  I didn’t think it made much sense to include players who probably won’t play this year.

Multipliers were used to normalize the stats so that the totals are based on approximately 14 full seasons from hitters and 9 from pitchers.  So, while your bench players are included in the projections, the team totals are adjusted depending on how many hitters or pitchers are on your roster.  It should be pointed out that my method does unnecessarily penalize teams who plan to use an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitcher’s slot.  Those teams should be expected to exceed the projected totals in wins and strikeouts since they are likely to exceed the IP totals of the rest of the teams.  So keep that in mind.

If you are wondering if these projections are even remotely worthwhile, keep in mind that last year’s projections turned out to be quite accurate.  They correctly predicted the top two teams, albeit in the wrong order.  They also identified the Cougars as the team that would take a big step forward, which they did, as well as the Moonshiners going in the opposite direction.  Eight of the ten teams finished within two spots of their predicted slot.  By no means am I suggesting that the teams at the bottom of these projections should give up before the season starts.  But this should give you a pretty good idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into the season.  I will try to point out instances where I don’t trust the projections for certain teams though.

On to part one of our season preview.  These are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  We’ll start at the very bottom and work our way up.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (3rd-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (8th)
  • Wins – 7th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 5th (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (7th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th)
  • Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

Just two years ago, the Moonshiners finished 1 1/2 points away from winning their first league title.  Last year, they had a hugely disappointing year, falling to 7th place.  If these projections are to be believed though, this season will be even worse.  The Moonshiners biggest problem is their starting pitching.  If you glance at ESPN’s SP player rater from last season, not one of the top 25 pitchers are on the Moonshiners roster.  So they lack a true ace who can carry them in most of the pitching categories.  The good news is they will have the benefit of a sixth starting pitcher with Drew Smyly occupying a bullpen spot.  A big year from him would give them a huge boost.  The offensive projections aren’t great either.  They seem to have solid players across the roster, but like the rotation, they don’t have a ton of high volume stat producers.  The Moonshiners have never finished worse than 7th place and have been a consistent contender.  The key for them to avoid their worst season ever will be to have a few guys break out and become stars and for Prince Fielder to return to being one of the elite power hitters in his new hitter friendly environment in Texas.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (6th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (9th)
  • Total Points – 9th (9th)

Summary:

Well, no other team in these projections looks as similar to their 2013 results as the Gators.  In every single category, they are projected to finish within one spot of where they were last year.  This is somewhat surprising because they are a much younger squad now.  Gone is Gator lifer Derek Jeter.  And in are Wil Myers, Matt Adams, Michael Wacha and some other young stars in the making.  They now have one of the better core of young players in the league that also includes guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Jean Segura.  They do have a few weak spots and a very unproven rotation, which leads to a projected finish near the bottom of the league.  Two categories they don’t have to worry about are stolen bases and saves.  They have plenty of speed and possibly the best bullpen in the league.  If a couple of the young starting pitchers pan out, the Gators could easily have their best season in many, many years.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (5th)
  • Wins – 5th (3rd)
  • Saves – 10th (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (3rd-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

Now we come to easily the most surprising projection of all, and the one for which I am the most suspicious.  The Choppers were the breakout team of 2013, finishing in third place.  They were a title contender until late in the season.  So what gives?  The projections show them taking a huge step backwards in both hitting and pitching.  Last year, they led the league in home runs and RBI, but are expected to finish 5th and 8th respectively this year.  It’s true they didn’t really add any sluggers in the draft, but that still seems like an odd fall from the top of the power categories.  Healthier years from Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson, plus Mark Trumbo moving to the thin air of Arizona should keep them in the top half of the league in those categories.  The pitching staff will be interesting to watch.  Chris Sale was the shining star last year.  Alex Cobb is the newcomer to the rotation.  The one category drop which totally makes sense is saves.  The Choppers will not win that category again this year.  But they have plenty of potential closers who should keep them out of the basement.  In summary, I’m going to bet the over on this Choppers projection.

Bold New Faces

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90′s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.