Archive for November, 2015

Donaldson Completes Jackalope Sweep

Monday, November 23rd, 2015


It seems like 85% of the content I have written for this site this year has focused on the Jackalope. They were the talk of the league in March with their blockbuster trades. Then came a thoroughly dominating championship season in which they picked up individual player honors in almost every month. And now in awards season, they have already claimed both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, thanks to Jake Arrieta. Which brings us to the Most Valuable Player award, an honor which the Jackalope figured to have not one, but two top candidates. Sure enough, those two players finished first and second in the vote. The award goes to one of the players they acquired in that pre-season shake-up. Josh Donaldson is the 2015 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

Donaldson and his Jackalope teammate Paul Goldschmidt finished in a virtual tie atop the Batting PAR leaderboard. So it comes as no surprise that those two led the way in the MVP vote as well. The third baseman, Donaldson, had the edge in home runs, RBI and runs while Goldschmidt bested him in average and stolen bases. Donaldson led the league with 122 runs, came in second in RBI with 123 and finished fifth in home runs with 41. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top five of those three power categories. His .297 average wasn’t too shabby either.

A breakout star last year in his DTBL rookie campaign, Donaldson proved that ’14 wasn’t a fluke. In fact, he significantly improved upon all of his numbers except stolen bases. The Moonshiners drafted him in the first round a year ago and he rewarded them with an All-Star season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year vote. He was the key piece moving to the Jackalope in a deal that sent elite pitcher Felix Hernandez to the Moonshiners. The full deal was Donaldson and a fourth round pick for Hernandez and Ian Kennedy. Despite Hernandez having another terrific season, the first year edge clearly goes to the Jackalope in that swap. Donaldson helped lead the league’s best offense to an easy league championship. He was a key part in the team finishing in the top four of every offensive category.

Goldschmidt had a very strong claim for this award as well, posting great numbers across the board (.321, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 103 R, 21 SB). As mentioned, the two Jackalope stars had virtually identical PAR numbers as well. In the end, it was probably Donaldson’s power edge that garnered him this award. The vote was relatively close, but Donaldson received a majority of the first place votes. He got six first place tallies, two seconds, a third and a fourth for 82 points. Goldschmidt had a pair of first place votes and four each for second and third. He came in second place with 68 points. NL MVP Bryce Harper also received strong consideration. The Darkhorses outfielder received two first place votes as well, but didn’t fair quite as well down ballot, and was left off one ballot completely. He finished with 55 points. Next, Nolan Arenado made sure two of the top four spots would go to third baseman. The Naturals’ slugger came in fourth with 38 points. Those four were head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. The fifth place spot went to a guy who actually didn’t finish higher than fifth on any ballot, but got five votes in that #5 spot. That player is the defending MVP, Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout. Trout has now finished in the top five of the MVP vote in all four of his DTBL seasons.

Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

With that, the Jackalope have swept all three of the major post-season awards. I don’t have complete records of the award winners from the league’s first decade to easily reference, but I believe this is the first time a team has won all three awards in the same season. Fitting, considering the 2015 Jackalope were unquestionably one of the best teams in league history.

So that’s it for a while. I have several plans for the winter, but I’ll keep them to myself for now so that I don’t set any expectations that I will surely fail to live up to. One certainty is that I will continue to retroactively calculate PAR numbers for past seasons. Hopefully, I’ll have numbers going back to at least a decade ago before next season begins.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Arrieta Doubles Up With Cy

Thursday, November 19th, 2015


2015 featured three of the greatest seasons by pitchers in league history.  Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw each would have won the Cy Young award with their ’15 numbers almost any other year.  But only one could win the award this year.  In the end, it was the Jackalope breakout star who captured the award to go along with his Rookie of the Year honor, which was announced last night.  Jake Arrieta is the 2015 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

There isn’t much left to say that I didn’t already cover last night, so let’s recap some of the highlights.  Arrieta led the league in wins with 22, which was three more than any other pitcher.  His minuscule 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP were both second in the league behind Greinke.  He led the league in pitching PAR (16.32), which currently stands as the highest mark ever recorded (2010-present).  As shocking as all of those numbers are, he was not a likely winner of this award as recently as mid-season.  But his second half was simply as good as it gets.  The highlight of that incredible stretch was the no-hitter he threw against the Dodgers in late August.  He won the Pitcher of the Month award in August and nearly did it in September as well.  He earned three Pitcher of the Week honors too.

I would be remiss if I didn’t give some special mention to the other pair of pitchers who would have won this award almost any other season.  Moonshiners righty Zack Greinke and Mavericks lefty Clayton Kershaw had as strong of seasons on the mound as any pair of MLB teammates you’ll ever see.  The Dodgers duo were huge assets to their DTBL teams as well, but in the end it was the guy on the championship squad who got the award.  Greinke’s 1.66 ERA and 0.844 WHIP both rank third on the all-time DTBL single season lists.  Greg Maddux is the only pitcher who has ever posted a better ERA in a season (1994 and 1995).  Meanwhile, Kershaw blew away the field in strikeouts with 301.  He is the first pitcher to reach the 300 mark since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling both did it 13 years ago.  The two time defending Cy Young winner, Kershaw was unable to make it three in a row, but has now finished in the top three of the vote an incredible five years in a row.  Greinke won the award back in 2009, but this is the first time he even received votes since.  Obviously, this is the first Cy Young for the DTBL rookie Arrieta.

As expected, this was a very tight vote.  The three aforementioned pitchers received all of the first, second and third place votes.  Arrieta garnered five first place votes on his way to 81 points.  Greinke was just a little shy of that, finishing with 75 points and three first place tallies.  Finally, Kershaw got a pair of first place votes as well and accumulated 64 points.  Needless to say, there was quite a gap after those three.  The Kings’ Max Scherzer looked like a leading candidate for this award in the first half of the season, but an uneven second half dropped him to fourth place with 13 points.  Finally, Moonshiners lefty Dallas Keuchel, who came in second to Arrieta in the Rookie of the Year vote, finished fifth for Cy Young.  Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner and David Price had pretty amazing seasons in their own rights, but didn’t come close to making a major play at this award.

Click here to view the full voting results.

So the Year of the Jackalope continues with two major awards added to the trophy case.  Will they sweep all three?  The MVP race figures to be extremely tight too, so you’ll have to wait and see.  I probably won’t have time to announce that winner until either Sunday or Monday night, so check back next week.

Arrieta Named Top Rookie

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015


The Jackalope made several huge splashes in March, shaking up their roster with some blockbuster trades. But the transaction they made which most directly translated to them cruising to the DTBL title was selecting Jake Arrieta with the sixth pick in the draft. It was a very strong rookie crop, including the five players picked before Arrieta, but none of them came close to matching his DTBL debut. In an unanimous decision, Jake Arrieta is the 2015 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

Forget about rookies, Arrieta had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in league history. He led the league in wins with 22, but it is was his eye-popping 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP that put him in very select company. Shockingly, he did not lead the league in either of those categories (second behind Zack Greinke in both), yet he now ranks fifth all-time in single season marks in those categories. His 16.32 PAR is the best ever among seasons I have calculated to date (2010 to present, although I should mention that I will be adjusting the PAR numbers to include league wide stats for ’15 in the near future, so he could lose the top spot back to 2011 Verlander). His 236 strikeouts ranked sixth in the league, but like the rest of his numbers, led the way among rookies. He is going to be a strong contender for the Cy Young award as well, though he faces some pretty stiff competition in that race.

As mentioned, Arrieta was the sixth player taken in the March draft, but the first pitcher. He followed a first baseman and four outfielders, most of whom had very strong DTBL debuts, but not even close to Arrieta’s level. He immediately became the ace of the Jackalope staff which had just traded away their long-time ace Felix Hernandez. Along with newly acquired Gerrit Cole (trade with Mavericks) and second year Jackalope Sonny Gray, they put together a very young set of hurlers at the top of their rotation. The plan worked to perfection as they jumped ten points in the pitching standings on their way to their second DTBL title. Unless the Jackalope decide to mix things up again next spring, Arrieta, Cole and Gray figure to anchor this rotation for quite some time.

The vote was unanimous. Arrieta received all ten first place votes. But this was not an indication of a weak class, but rather a reflection of just how great Arrieta was. Two other pitchers had seasons that probably would have earned them this award most years. The Moonshiners made the top free agent acquisition in quite some time when they signed Dallas Keuchel in early April. He finished second in the vote with 56 points, receiving six second place votes, and was the only player besides Arrieta to appear on every ballot. Coming in a distant third was another pitcher who had an incredible rookie campaign, the Darkhorses’ Jacob deGrom. He accumulated 33 points despite finishing no higher than third on any ballot. Arrieta, Keuchel and deGrom are about as strong of a rookie trio of pitchers as the league has ever seen. The top offensive rookie was Cougars first baseman Jose Abreu who received a pair of second place votes and 28 total points. Right behind him was his Cougars teammate, outfielder Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon also received two second place votes and a point total of 26. The rest of the rookies were well behind those five, leaving some players who had very strong debuts nowhere near winning the award.

Click here to view the full voting results.

I plan to announce the winner of the Cy Young award tomorrow night. Will Arrieta win that one as well, or will it go to one of the Dodgers dynamic duo of Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw? Finally, the MVP award likely won’t be announced until early next wee.

Sifting Through the Mediocrity

Wednesday, November 11th, 2015


Well, this post is about a month overdue.  The World Series is over and we’re already well into awards season, yet I haven’t finished recapping the 2015 DTBL season.  I have a lot of writing to do next week with the awards announcements, so let’s get right to this.

So far, I’ve reviewed the seasons of the top three finishers and left the other seven for a single article.  The reason for that is simple:  very little separated the bottom seven.  All were in jeopardy of finishing in last place right up to the final days of the season.  In the end, the fourth place Choppers finished just 6 1/2 points ahead of the last place Kings.  That margin is less than what separated the Choppers from third place.  So there were obviously a lot of pretty weak teams in the league this year, which certainly helped the Jackalope cruise to an easy victory.  However, what is really interesting about the bottom seven is that none of them were even close to as poor as usual last place teams.  The Kings finished with 45 1/2 points, which most years would put them closer to the middle of the pack than last place.  In fact, the previous record for most points from a last place finisher was 39 1/2 points for the 2001 Panthers.  While I’m sure none of these seven teams are particularly pleased with the way the 2015 season finished for them, they can take solace that they all have some pretty obvious strengths and aren’t really too far from being title contending teams in the future.

Let’s start at the top of this tightly packed group.  The Choppers had a pretty rough go of it most of the year, but finished strong to lead this pack.  They finished in fourth place for the second consecutive year.  While they haven’t been in a tight title race in a very long time, they have quietly put together a nice string of above average seasons.  The Mavericks are the only other team to have finished in the top half of the league for three straight seasons now.  The Choppers had a very strong season from their pitching staff, slotting behind only the loaded staffs of the Jackalope and Mavericks in terms of pitching points.  The rotation, led by Chris Sale, went six deep with pitchers who accumulated at least a 4.0 PAR.  No other team had that sort of depth this year.  The offense was a bit of a disappointment, but Jose Bautista and Anthony Rizzo had great years.  Fourth place is a nice finish for this team that looks to be just an offensive player or two away from really making a title run.

A year ago, the Demigods came very close to earning their first DTBL championship.  Unfortunately for them, they came nowhere near repeating that kind of season in 2015.  The reason is obvious:  their pitching took a huge step backwards.  Losing Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery before the season began proved to be too much to overcome.  Jose Fernandez’s return from the same surgery limited him to just 65 innings.  Not surprisingly, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto were unable to match their very lofty ’14 numbers.  All told, the Demigods’ 19 pitching points were not even close to what they needed/expected.  The offense was actually really good.  Jose Altuve had another strong campaign and J.D. Martinez wound up being one of the steals of the draft.  Nobody else had eye-popping numbers, but this was a very solid offensive squad from top to bottom.  Had the pitching staff lived up to expectations, this would have been a top three team for sure.

Things definitely didn’t go as planned for the defending champions.  The Naturals slipped to sixth place, their worst finish since 2008.  Interestingly enough, this is the second straight year that the defending champ fell all the way to sixth place.  For the Naturals sake, hopefully they don’t continue to follow the post-championship dive of the 2013 Kings and fall to dead last next year.  So what went wrong for the Naturals?  Well, for one, Miguel Cabrera just wasn’t himself.  He had a decent year, but not even close to his usual form.  Newly acquired Yasiel Puig was a major disappointment.  And injuries hampered a whole bunch of their key players throughout the year.  That being said, Nolan Arenado emerged as a MVP candidate and Joey Votto was outstanding as well.  On the mound, they had a little trouble with the back-end of the rotation.  David Price and Carlos Carrasco were the bright spots, but the rest of the starters were not great.  On the other hand, the bullpen was very good, leading the league in saves.  Certainly a disappointing year for the Naturals who have been one of the league’s premier franchises in the past decade.  But there is little reason to doubt they could bounce back near the top next year.

The Moonshiners are nothing if not consistent.  For the third consecutive year, they finished in seventh place.  Obviously, that’s not an ideal spot to establish consistency though.  While the results were the same, the process and team make-up were not.  They completely revamped their squad in March, trading for Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez.  Those two were very productive, especially Greinke who had the best season of his career.  Along with those two, the Moonshiners may have made the best move of the year picking up Dallas Keuchel from free agency in April.  With those three acquisitions, it is hard to believe the Moonshiners weren’t able to improve their final standing.  Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of their players who had great seasons.  Especially troubling was the lack of offensive firepower.  Prince Fielder led the team in batting PAR at 3.4, by far the lowest total for a team leader.  Despite the three previously mentioned pitchers having excellent seasons, the Moonshiners pitching staff was only mediocre since they got very little from anyone besides those three.  They will need strong seasons out of a lot more players next year to get out of this seventh place rut.

Despite finishing in eighth place, the Gators may have had the most positively surprising offense in the league.  Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte helped lead the Gators to the fourth most batting points in the league.  This is a franchise that had been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for six straight years.  So this was a huge step in the right direction.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff didn’t move in that same direction, finishing with the same number of pitching points (19) as last year.  Michael Wacha was clearly the staff ace, but there wasn’t much behind him in the rotation.  Unfortunately, this is the fifth straight year the Gators have finished in a bottom three position.  However, this was clearly the best team they have had in that stretch as they finished with their highest point total since 2010.  So there is reason to be optimistic for the Gators’ future.

If there is one team whose final ranking is not at all indicative of the talent level of the squad, it is the Cougars.  Early on, they looked like a team that could compete for the title.  But a series of late season injuries and performance drop-offs caused them to tumble all the way to a ninth place finish.  Losing Adam Wainwright for most of the season prevented the Cougars from having one of the better pitching staffs in the league.  Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer were fantastic, but they just didn’t have the depth they had hoped for.  But it was their offense that caused the late season free-fall.  Jose Abreu and Charlie Blackmon were drafted to boost the offense, and pretty much lived up to expectations.  But those two along with Chris Davis weren’t enough to keep them afloat.  As mentioned, several key players got hurt late in the season, which pretty much tanked their season.  Again, this is not your typical ninth place team.  The Cougars have the talent of a top half team.

Finally, we come to the dumpster fire that was the Kings 2015 season.  Just two years ago, the Kings won their fifth DTBL title.  Boy does that feel like a distant memory now.  What’s really shocking about this fall is the way the team flipped the script during this season.  Early on, they were riding Max Scherzer and Shelby Miller to surprisingly having one of the better pitching staffs in the league, but their offense was holding them back.  But then in the second half, the pitching completely fell apart while the offense turned things around to finish in the top half of the league in batting points.  In the end, their pitching was pretty terrible and the main culprit for the last place finish.  Scherzer and Jeurys Familia were the only above average pitchers on the squad.  Offensively, their first two draft picks were very solid:  outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco.  A.J. Pollock became an elite player as well.  So there are some reasons to be optimistic about the Kings’ bats.  Also, for the glass half full crowd, this was simply not your typical last place team in terms of points and talent.  Plus they will have the chance to pick first in the deepest draft in league history.  So not all is lost for this proud franchise, but 2015 was a complete disaster.