Archive for April, 2016

2016 Season Preview: Part IV

Wednesday, April 6th, 2016


The way the Jackalope dominated the DTBL in 2015, it is no surprise they are the favorites to win the league again this year.  But a repeat of their 19 point victory seems extremely unlikely.  The projections certainly don’t point to that.  Yes, the Jackalope are projected to win the league again, but with 10 fewer points and just a 2 1/2 point cushion over the second place squad.  That team would be the Thunder Choppers, who have generally not been highly regarded in these pre-season projections.  But after a couple straight fourth place finishes, they are a team that definitely looks ready to contend.  Although these two teams are expected to finish fairly close to each other, they are built much differently.  The Jackalope are very strong across the board, while the Choppers have an elite pitching staff with an average offense.  While other teams will surely be in the discussion this season, it will be very interesting to see if these two are able to live up to expectations.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the 2016 standings.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd-T (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
  • Wins – 1st (7th)
  • Saves – 1st (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Points – 2nd (4th)

Summary:

The Choppers finished a very respectable fourth place last year, but were not serious title contenders.  It was their third straight season in the top four, but in those years they never finished closer than nine points behind the champion.  So while their continued success is a positive, they certainly would like to be in the discussion for a league championship come September and hope to end their 17 year title drought.  For all the talk about the Mavericks pitching staff, it is the Choppers who actually top the pitching point projections.  They are expected to finish first or second in all five pitching categories.  And this is almost all on the shoulders of returning players.  They wound up keeping six starting pitchers and did not draft a single pitcher who is on their Opening Day roster.  That allowed them to solely focus on improving an offense that was one of the worst in the league last year.  Kyle Schwarber is the big name among the newcomers, but they brought in a bunch of solid veteran hitters as well.  For the offense to be above average, Schwarber and his Cubs teammate Anthony Rizzo will need to have great seasons.  But they probably don’t need to be much better than average with the sticks because their pitching staff is loaded.  Chris Sale is the number one guy, but they have five other very good starters:  Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Danny Salazar, Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka.  That is impressive depth.  The bullpen is strong as well, although I think the 2nd place projection in saves is slightly optimistic.  Craig Kimbrel is clearly their top bullpen guy.  This should be a very good year for the Choppers.  They may not be able to win it all, but they do appear to be the best bet to unseat the Jackalope.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
  • Wins – 2nd (1st)
  • Saves – 4th (6th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

It woudn’t be much fun if the Jackalope were expected to blow away the rest of the league again this year, so nice to see just a 2 1/2 point margin.  But make no mistake, they are clearly the favorites to win the DTBL again this year.  And that smaller gap between them and the rest of the league is not a sign of this being a weaker Jackalope squad.  It is just hard to have everything go your way like it did for this team a year ago.  They are still projected to be a top three hitting and pitching team.  No other team can legitimately claim to be one of the league’s best on both sides.  It isn’t just the returning players who give the Jackalope such high hopes.  They were able to reinforce their squad with a couple interesting additions in the draft:  third baseman Maikel Franco and pitcher Raisel Iglesias.  But the most important players are the same guys who carried them a year ago.  Reigning league MVP Josh Donaldson left today’s game early, but hopefully it wasn’t anything serious.  Paul Goldschmidt also happens to be one of the best players in baseball.  And don’t forget that they didn’t even get full years out of top slugger Giancarlo Stanton and solid hitter Anthony Rendon.  So there are some reasons to believe they could be even better in 2016.  The pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.  Jake Arrieta was the steal of the draft a year ago.  Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole join him to make up the best non-Mavericks top three in the league.  There is very little drop-off in the bullpen either.  Wade Davis moves into a full time closer role and Mark Melancon led the league in saves last season.  The Jackalope will attempt to become the first team to successfully defend their title since the Darkhorses finished up their four-peat in 2010.  It would be pretty shocking if they aren’t in the hunt to do just that.

Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, there is a pretty healthy gap between the two teams at each end of the standings and the other six in the middle. The Jackalope and Choppers appear to be the teams to beat with the Demigods clearly being the third choice. Meanwhile, the Gators and Moonshiners are going to need to significantly outperform these numbers in order to sniff the top of the standings. But for the most part, anything could happen. Should be another fun season. Good luck to all!

2016 Season Preview: Part III

Tuesday, April 5th, 2016


We’re now into the third day of games of the 2016 baseball season.  What better time to overreact to small sample sizes?  I’ll try not to do that here.  Hopefully, I’ll be able to finish up the final article tomorrow evening.  In part three of our season preview, we’ll look at three teams that are projected to be above average this season, but just barely.  The numbers show these teams finishing well behind the top two.  But this is where the eventual champion Jackalope were slotted a year ago.  So it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more of these teams in the running for the title down the stretch.  All of these teams have championship aspirations after slightly disappointing 2015 seasons.  One of them is a recent champion while the other two have come very close in recent years and are looking to take the next step this season.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth, fourth and third places.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (7th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
  • Wins – 4th (2nd-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
  • Total Points – 5th (6th)

Summary:

You know how everyone talks about the San Francisco Giants and #EvenYearMagic?  Well, they aren’t the only team who has won championships in each of the past three even year seasons (2010, 2012, 2014).  Those also happen to be years in which the Naturals have won DTBL titles.  Last year’s season preview correctly predicted that the Naturals would not come close to defending their title.  But it was a surprisingly mediocre offense that cost them, rather than the pitching staff which appeared to be their weakness.  This year’s projections show more of the same.  They still have one of the most imposing offensive lineups in the league.  Troy Tulowtizki is gone, but Miguel Cabrera, Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto remain.  Even though we just saw it last year, I have a hard time believing this is a below average offensive team.  The pitching staff looks very strong with Noah Syndergaard joining David Price and Carlos Carrasco at the top of the rotation.  And the bullpen will feature four closers to start the year.  Despite the modest prognostication, another even year championship certainly seems possible for the Naturals.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 8th-T (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 5th (6th)
  • Saves – 8th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 4th (2nd)

Summary:

The past three years, the Mavericks have been projected to finish either first or second.  That’s basically how things have turned out too.  The Mavs have finished no worse than third the past four years.  But this season marks the tenth anniversary of their last title.  The perennial contender will likely resume that role again this season, although these projections are not quite as optimistic.  They still have the league’s best pitching staff, by far, even though they are not projected to lead the league in pitching points.  That’s only because of wins and saves, the former which is nearly impossible to predict.  They are a solid #1 in the other three pitching categories, giving them plenty of room for error.  Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg continue to be an enviable top three who all would be clear aces on most other teams.  The bullpen is borderline unfair with four of the best relievers in baseball, although Aroldis Chapman will miss time due to a suspension.  They won’t rack up saves since three of them play for the same team, but Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Kenley Jansen will basically assure the Mavericks of winning the strike out category.  The questions are all on offense.  These projections are not kind, but that is largely because they are depending on a ton of young players without proven track records along with several veterans who have had trouble staying healthy in recent years.  They are a pretty good bet to exceed the counting category projections assuming these guys stay on the field.  It won’t be the least bit surprising if the Mavericks are one of the best teams in the league again this year.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 8th-T (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
  • Wins – 8th (9th)
  • Saves – 10th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

Summary:

The Demigods were very close to winning their first championship in 2014 and entered last year with lofty expectations.  Unfortunately for them, their pitching staff was unable to maintain its dominance, causing them to finish a disappointing fifth.  This year, things could be setting up perfectly for them to make another run.  They should finally get a full year out of Jose Fernandez, who along with Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, certainly have the potential to be the best non-Mavericks rotation.  Remember, just two years ago, they led the league in pitching points.  This group could be just as strong.  However, the bullpen is not great.  Trevor Rosenthal is the only certain closer on the team.  So punting saves may be necessary.  With the bats, they look pretty strong as well.  First round pick Francisco Lindor joins a hitting roster that is very steady from 1 through 14.  Really, their offensive strength is their lack of weak spots.  Buster Posey, Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez are largely underrated superstars.  Perhaps expectations aren’t quite as high this year for the Demigods, but this is a very strong team.  They are by far the most balanced of any of the teams covered so far.  There is a bit of a gap between them and the top two in these projections, but they are also a safe third ahead of the rest of the pack.

2016 Season Preview: Part II

Saturday, April 2nd, 2016


Parts two and three of the 2016 DTBL season preview will cover six teams slated to finish in the middle of the pack with very little separation.  In particular, the teams projected to finish in fourth through eighth place are bunched within 4 1/2 points of each other.  So it wouldn’t take much for the three teams covered in this article to finish in the top half of the standings.  These teams are projected to finish safely ahead of the bottom two, but would need to significantly surpass these numbers to get into the title race.  There are signs of significant improvement over last year for two of these teams, while the third would be taking a huge step backwards if these prognostications were to come true.  Obviously, teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings have some weaknesses, but these three teams also have significant strengths that could carry them to higher places.  Here are the teams projected to finish in eighth, seventh and sixth places.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
  • Wins – 6th (2nd-T)
  • Saves – 9th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (7th)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

Okay, this is a pretty rough looking projection for a team that finished third last year.  But if you look closely at the numbers, the drop-off from a year ago is not that significant.  The 61.5 points they earned last year was more in line with a middle of the pack team most years.  But they are still slated to drop close to 10 points, which would make an eighth place finish pretty disappointing.  On the positive side, the offense looks very strong again.  They didn’t select a hitter until the fourth round of the draft, so this lineup is mostly the same as last year.  If Bryce Harper has another season like the last one, you can probably safely assume these team power projections are on the low side.  Todd Frazier, George Springer and Xander Bogaerts are three other players who seem primed for big years.  The concern is on the mound.  Last year, Jacob deGrom pretty much carried the rotation, but a pair of Carloses have been brought in to help:  Carlos Martinez and Carlos Rodon.  Those guys have huge upside, but modest projections in ERA and WHIP.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness at the moment with Brad Boxberger and Carson Smith hurt.  Jake McGee appears to be the only player on the roster who can be counted on for saves in April.  The Darkhorses absolutely have the talent to contend.  But we’ll have to see if they are able to outperform this iffy pitching forecast.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
  • Wins – 3rd (4th)
  • Saves – 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
  • Total Points – 7th (9th)

Summary:

Although this projection only shows a two place jump, I think the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the league.  First of all, their ninth place finish was a little misleading due to the tightness of the race to the bottom.  They actually looked like one of the stronger teams in the league early last season.  But a late season collapse sent them spiraling to 9th.  For quite some time now, they have had a very solid pitching staff but have been waiting for the offense to catch up.  Well, that time appears to have arrived.  The Cougars are actually projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  But the closeness of these middle teams has them just seventh overall.  The offense is much improved.  Kris Bryant will provide an immediate power boost, joining forces with holdovers Chris Davis and Jose Abreu.  Charlie Blackmon and Michael Brantley are two very underrated players as well.  This should be the best offensive team the Cougars have fielded since 2010.  The pitching staff is largely the same as last year, led by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer.  But the potential for a big boost here would be getting a full season out of Adam Wainwright.  The bullpen looks pretty strong with Cody Allen and David Robertson, but Drew Storen losing the closer gig in Toronto isn’t helpful.  Overall, this is a very solid team.  I’m betting the over on seventh place.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (8th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd-T (7th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (6th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 3rd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 6th (10th)

Summary:

This entire section requires a huge asterisk after news hit last night that A.J. Pollock broke his elbow.  Pollock was easily the Kings best, most irreplaceable offensive player last year.  So these projections showing them leading the league in batting points seems highly unlikely.  Having said that, the Kings still have far more talent than most teams coming off a last place season.  The offense was actually pretty good in 2015, but they were torpedoed by an awful pitching staff.  It looks to be the same story heading into 2016.  Carlos Correa and David Peralta will add to a strong group of returning hitters including Mookie Betts, Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez.  If they are able to get bounce-back seasons out of Jay Bruce and Jonathan LuCroy, they definitely could have one of the best hitting teams in the league, even without Pollock.  The pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a huge problem.  It was basically Max Scherzer and a bunch of stiffs last year.  They are hoping Marcus Stroman can lend a hand and are hopeful for a bounce-back year from Jeff Samardzija.  The bullpen is a strength.  They will enter the season with four closers.  The Kings seem like a safe bet to improve on last year’s disaster.  But if they don’t get several pitchers to take their games to another level, another finish in the bottom half of the standings seems likely.