Archive for March, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Part I

Thursday, March 30th, 2017


We are just days away from the start of the 25th DTBL season.  A quarter century doing this.  I guess that means we’re getting old.  Anyway, there will be time for nostalgia later.  For now, it is time to start looking at what we might see in this upcoming season.  Last season ended with the Kings winning the championship by just about the narrowest margin imaginable.  The Demigods came painfully close to their first title while the Choppers and Mavericks were also in the race in the closing days of the season.  It seems quite possible that we could have a thrilling finish again this year as a whole bunch of teams figure to be in contention.  Which teams have the early edge?  As has become custom, I have compiled projected stats for all the players and teams in the league and have used those numbers to create projected standings.

I have made a small change to these projections from previous years.  But first, please check out this post from four years ago for a refresher on how these projections are created.  Here is what has changed for 2017.  Instead of simply using ZiPS projections (and Steamer for saves), I have decided to use FanGraphs’ Depth Charts Projections.  These projections combine ZiPS and Steamer and then are adjusted by FanGraphs staffers based on expected playing time.  I decided this set of numbers would be preferable to simply using ZiPS for a couple reasons.  First, more input is generally better than less, so two separate systems are being used to create these numbers.  Second, the playing time adjustments make sense to more accurately determine how much of an impact a player is likely to have this season.  It is worth noting that this change will hurt players who figure to spend a chunk of the season in the minors, like Yoan Moncada, for example.  Moncada’s Depth Charts projection is for 266 plate appearances whereas ZiPS has him at 650.  There is virtually no chance Moncada will have 650 plate appearances this year.  So I think Depth Charts paints a more accurate picture, but you are free to disagree.  One last thing to note is that some of these playing time projections have changed as spring training has progressed.  The numbers I am using were taken from just days before the start of the draft.  So that is something to consider as well.

As we begin to dive into these team previews, keep in mind that these projections are nice, but almost certainly won’t come close to predicting the actual results of the 2017 season.  Last year’s projections had the Kings finishing sixth and the Jackalope repeating as champions.  That didn’t exactly happen.  On the other hand, the projections did quite accurately predict that the Demigods and Choppers would be serious title contenders.  So anyway, many grains of salt should be taken when digesting this information.  I do believe it is an interesting way to preview the season without making any enemies by posting my personal predictions.

Without further ado, let’s get to the projections.  Today, I will preview the teams projected to finish in the bottom three spots in the standings.  These projections are especially harsh on the last place squad, but show room for improvement for the other two teams as well.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 8th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 10th (8th)

Summary:

The above numbers aren’t pretty, but one potential reason for optimism is that the Gators have easily exceeded offensive projections the past two years, so there may be something these systems don’t like about their hitters.  They are clearly a speed first team, but they have a bunch of really good power hitters as well.  Wil Myers and Jean Segura were the breakout stars last year.  Corey Seager figures to take another step towards superstar status this season.  Jose Ramirez is the top offensive newcomer and should fit in nicely as an outstanding hitter who can run too.  I’m definitely taking the over on the batting projection.  Pitching, on the other hand, has been the Gators’ sore spot for a while now.  They do not have a truly dominant ace, although Jose Quintana could be one if he played for a different MLB team.  If he were to get traded by the White Sox, that could be a huge gain for the Gators.  Aaron Sanchez was tabbed with the third pick in the draft, so they are obviously counting on him to carry a heavy load.  Jharel Cotton is a very intriguing addition to the rotation too.  The bullpen features arguably the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton.  However, he is currently the only guy in the pen expected to open the season as a closer.  It will require vastly exceeding these projections for the Gators to put an end to their six year run in the bottom three of the standings.  Interestingly enough though, the only time they have ever finished in last place was the very first year of this league, 1993, when there were only five teams.  Can they avoid last place once again?

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (6th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 10th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (7th)
  • Total Points – 9th (5th)

Summary:

This feels like the weirdest projection we will see in this series, by far.  Last year, the Darkhorses finished a respectable fifth place and had the best offense in the league.  So how did they fall all the way to 9th here?  I can’t really answer that.  I even double-checked the numbers to make sure I didn’t screw up something.  I like this team a lot, especially the bats.  Bryce Harper is close to a lock to improve on his pedestrian numbers from last season.  Maybe a step back from Daniel Murphy is to be expected, but newcomer Alex Bregman should easily make up for that.  Christian Yelich and George Springer are also on the verge of greatness in my opinion, and interestingly enough, both will be moving to full time gigs in center field this year.  There is a lot to like about the Darkhorses’ offense.  The pitching staff is a far bigger question mark.  Can Rick Porcello come close to matching his 2016 AL Cy Young campaign?  Will youngsters Julio Urias and Tyler Glasnow flourish in the big leagues this season?  There is significant upside in the rotation, but also a lot of unknowns.  The bullpen isn’t great, but could be much more interesting if Hector Neris is rightfully given the Phillies closer job early in the season.  They should easily exceed this saves projection.  Overall, I think the Darkhorses could be a contender, despite what these numbers show.  It will come down to how the young pitchers perform.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
  • Wins – 2nd (4th-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
  • Total Points – 8th (7th)

Summary:

Like the other two teams in this article, the Moonshiners have a recent trend of exceeding expectations.  Despite finishing 7th and being projected for 8th this year, there are actually a lot of positives here.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections at the end of the series, the Moonshiners are actually expected to improve by more than 10 standings points from last year.  It is just how they happened to shake out in comparison to other teams that pushed them down to 8th.  It is pretty clear that the offense should be better this year, despite trading away two of their key veteran hitters:  Kyle Seager and Ian Kinsler.  Instead, they now have some significant young potential in guys like Gregory Polanco and Jonathan Villar.  Villar alone will ensure they don’t finish anywhere near last in steals again.  And there is a ton of power in the lineup too with guys like Brian Dozier, Khris Davis, Miguel Sano, Evan Gattis and Brad Miller.  Batting average could be a problem, but they should see significant improvement in the other four hitting categories.  The pitching staff will still be led by veterans Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke along with last year’s breakout sensation Kyle Hendricks.  The Moonshiners seem to have a guy like that every year (Keuchel the year before), so who will it be this season?  Perhaps Jon Gray or Robbie Ray.  The bullpen is quite strong with the additions of the two best closers available in this draft:  Edwin Diaz and Seung Hwan Oh.  The Moonshiners have finished in 7th place four years in a row.  Despite the projection of 8th, these numbers actually show a very strong likelihood of them taking a positive step forward this season.

Posted in Darkhorses, Gators, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Story-book Beginning

Monday, March 20th, 2017


Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »