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In some circles, it is believed that I have magical powers that allow me to alter the state of the championship race by declaring certain teams dead, thereby causing those teams to actually find their way back into the race. There has been little proof of this, however, as what was described as a two team race a month ago has now become more of a solo act. The Mavericks now hold a double digit lead with just three and a half weeks to go. Is it over? Are the Mavericks a lock to win their first championship in 11 years? Eh, not exactly.
While the Mavericks have held a double digit lead for a couple weeks now, they are not completely bulletproof. On the batting side, they hold precarious leads over chasing teams in pretty much all five categories. And they are currently nursing several injuries to hitters. Without any free agent signings remaining, they don’t have a lot of options to replace injured players either, not that the free agent pool has anybody worth signing at this point anyway. As for pitching, they are sitting pretty and it seems highly unlikely they could lose more than a point or two in pitching categories, especially with Clayton Kershaw healthy again. Perhaps someday I will come up with a way of calculating championship odds, but for now, I’m going to take a blind guess instead. I’d give the Mavericks close to a 90% chance of winning the title, with the other 10% split between the Naturals and Demigods. I suppose a few other teams could enter the picture with a couple ridiculously hot weeks. But it is pretty much the Mavericks title to lose. There, I said it.
So the championship race may not be particularly exciting right now, but there are some other very interesting storylines to follow down the stretch. First is the impressive power display by Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton (spoiler alert: he will be mentioned again below). Stanton currently sits at 53 home runs and has a great chance to be the first person to reach 60 since 2001. In fact, if you exclude the seasons during the peak of the steroid era (1998-2001), Stanton could surpass the next highest single season home run total (Ryan Howard, 58, 2006). While the actual single season home run record (73) is probably not realistic, Stanton does have a great shot at a different kind of home run record: margin of victory for the home run crown. In 1995, Albert Belle hit 10 more homers than any other player. Nobody else has repeated that feat since. Currently, Stanton leads Moonshiners’ Khris Davis by 14 home runs. At his recent pace, hard to imagine Stanton not expanding upon that lead.
The MVP and Cy Young races are both way too close to call right now. In fact, there are so many hitters in play for MVP that I’m not even going to mention all of them here. On the pitching side, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer have been the presumptive Cy Young leaders most of the summer, but Corey Kluber has been coming on strong and a now-healthy Kershaw can’t be ignored either. Will Sale reach 300 strikeouts? If he gets to 302, it will be the highest single season mark since 2002.
Now a belated look back at the award winners for August 2017:
Batters of the Week:
Week 18 (7/31 – 8/6) – Willson Contreras, Demigods
Week 19 (8/7 – 8/13) – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
Week 20 (8/14 – 8/20) – Rougned Odor, Naturals
Week 21 (8/21 – 8/27) – Byron Buxton, Choppers
Week 22 (8/28 – 9/3) – Jose Ramirez, Gators
Pitchers of the Week:
Week 18 (7/31 – 8/6) – Cole Hamels, Demigods
Week 19 (8/7 – 8/13) – Corey Kluber, Demigods
Week 20 (8/14 – 8/20) – Gio Gonzalez, Gators
Week 21 (8/21 – 8/27) – Masahiro Tanaka, Choppers
Week 22 (8/28 – 9/3) – Jeff Samardzija, Moonshiners
August was a good month for veteran pitchers. Four of the five Pitchers of the Week are at least 31 years old, with Tanaka being the young guy (28). It was also a good month for a few under-the-radar stars like Jose Ramirez and Gio Gonzalez. The Moonshiners July trade for Jeff Smardzija has been paying dividends as well. But let’s face it, August was all about one guy, who obviously won the Batter of the Month award:
Batter of the Month:
Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
.349 AVG, 18 HR, 37 RBI, 28 R, 1 SB, 4.81 PAR
Pitcher of the Month:
Corey Kluber, Demigods
1.96 ERA, 0.630 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 54 K, 4.35 PAR
As amazing as Jose Altuve’s July was, Giancarlo Stanton kicked it up another notch in August. He had the best month of this season by a player, by far, according to PAR. His 4.81 August PAR is a full 1.3 points higher than any other Player of the Month has earned this season. He slugged an insane 18 home runs in August, which is the second highest single month total in league history, trailing only Sammy Sosa’s 20 homers in June of 1998. As outlined above, this has a chance to be a truly historic season for Stanton. He is firmly in the mix for MVP now as well. You want to know who has had the second best month this season? The Mavericks’ Manny Machado, who put up 3.9 PAR in August, but somehow didn’t come close to winning this monthly honor.
Not to be overlooked, Corey Kluber also posted the highest monthly PAR we’ve seen from a pitcher this season, coming in at 4.35. He was nearly unhittable in the month, leading qualified pitchers in ERA, WHIP, wins (tied) and strikeouts. He has also inserted himself into the Cy Young conversation, which didn’t seem possible a month ago. Nobody came close to snatching this honor from Kluber, but recently traded Justin Verlander was the runner-up.