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We’ve reached the final portion of the 2018 DTBL season preview. Not surprisingly, the two teams projected to finish at the top of the standings are the same squads that occupied those spots most of last season as well. In case you are curious, they were not projected to finish first or second in this series last spring. Those spots belonged to the Kings and Choppers, who finished ninth and seventh respectively. So being tabbed a pre-season favorite most certainly doesn’t guarantee success. Having said that, it would be pretty surprising if these teams aren’t in the hunt again this year. They both added some exciting young talent to already loaded rosters. Not a whole lot separates these teams in the projections. One point, to be exact. One of them is projected to lead the league in pitching points. Its probably not the team you expect. Here are the top two DTBL Championship contenders.
Nick’s Naturals
Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)
- Batting Average – 4th (4th)
- Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
- Runs Batted In - 4th (1st)
- Runs Scored – 8th (4th)
- Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
- Earned Run Average - 2nd (9th)
- WHIP Ratio - 2nd (9th)
- Wins - 2nd (7th)
- Saves – 8th (4th)
- Strike Outs - 2nd (7th)
- Total Batting Points – 6th (1st)
- Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
- Total Points - 2nd (2nd-T)
Summary:
The overall projected ranking of the Naturals is about what one might have expected. But the individual category rankings are pretty shocking. Last year, the Naturals had the best offense in the league, but were ultimately unable to stick with the Mavericks because of a below average pitching staff. In this year’s draft, they continued to add pieces to the offense while only selecting one starting pitcher in the first half of the draft (Garrett Richards). Yet now they are projected to lead the league in pitching points, with the bulk of that staff being the same as the one that struggled a year ago. The main reason for this is fairly obvious: health. Noah Syndergaard is the Naturals best pitcher, but threw just 30 innings a year ago. David Price was also hurt much of the year and finished the season in the bullpen. If those two are healthy all year, the Naturals are close to a lock to exceed their ’17 pitching numbers. James Paxton and Carlos Carrasco carried the rotation last year and will be complementary pieces again this season. Felipe Rivero joins Raisel Iglesias to give the Naturals two excellent closers. I wouldn’t call the bullpen a strength, but it should be decent. The batting projections are slightly concerning as they don’t like the Naturals chances of leading the league in batting points again this year. But there are still some very high upside youngsters on this roster, including Yoan Moncada, Victor Robles and Lewis Brinson, who have all been among the top ranked prospects in baseball the past few years. Nolan Arrenado is projected to be their top hitter again this year. A healthy Trea Turner would be right up there too. Joey Votto, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera and Marcell Ozuna are among their dependable veteran bats. I think it is very likely the Naturals will exceed these offensive projections. If they do, they might be the championship favorites. At any rate, it would be surprising if they aren’t in a pennant race again this year.
Marc’s Mavericks
Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)
- Batting Average – 5th (8th)
- Home Runs - 5th (3rd)
- Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th)
- Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
- Stolen Bases – 4th (3rd)
- Earned Run Average - 1st (1st)
- WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
- Wins – 5th (1st-T)
- Saves – 10th (6th)
- Strike Outs - 1st (2nd)
- Total Batting Points - 3rd (7th)
- Total Pitching Points - 3rd (1st)
- Total Points - 1st (1st)
Summary:
The defending champs appear to be well positioned to become the first DTBL team to repeat since the 2011 Darkhorses finished off their four-peat. But this is not quite the same Mavericks team that won it all a year ago. They still have an elite pitching staff, but may not be able to smoke the rest of the pack in most pitching categories again this year. On the other hand, they won it all despite having a mediocre offense last year. This squad looks much stronger with the bats, despite not being a priority in the draft outside of first round pick Ozzie Albies. Mike Trout and Aaron Judge pretty much guarantee that the Mavericks offense won’t suck. The Orioles infield duo of Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are also the Mavericks top infielders. The outfield is in good hands with Trout, Judge, Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Mazara. While the Mavericks aren’t expected to finish at the top of the league in any of the batting categories, they also don’t have an obvious weakness. The pitching staff remains loaded. Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish have been carrying the rotation for years, and are back to do it again this season. Zack Godley is a nice addition as well. Perhaps the most intriguing pitcher on the roster is Alex Reyes, who they drafted in the second round with a pick they received from the Komodos for Aroldis Chapman. It isn’t clear what role Reyes will play when he returns from Tommy John surgery in May or June, but the latest word is that he will be a starter. That would be a huge boost to the Mavericks win and strikeout potential. The bullpen is full of power arms that may not accumulate a ton of saves, but will be a boon to the other four pitching categories. Not included in these projections is Keone Kela, who they recently signed as a free agent and appears to be the choice to close games for the Rangers. Also with Kenley Jansen, the Mavericks should have a decent shot of not finishing last in saves like these projections have them. They may not demolish the rest of the league in ERA and WHIP as they have in recent years, but this still looks like it could be the best pitching staff in the league. The Mavericks appear poised to finish in the top four of the league for the seventh straight season: a remarkable run of sustained success.
Below are the full 2018 projected standings. As you can see, not a whole lot separates the Mavericks, Naturals and Kings at the top. Past seasons have shown these projections to be compelling, but certainly not infallible. Let’s see how it all plays out. Welcome to the 26th Dream Team Baseball League season!