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The second part of this 2019 DTBL season preview series will examine three teams that are projected to finish with nearly identical point totals, within a single point of each other. Two of the teams are slotted just a couple points ahead of the ninth place Cougars as well, so that means things are projected to be very tight in the bottom half of the standings. The previous post covered a pair of teams that finished in the top half of the standings a year ago. Meanwhile, this one covers two more teams in that situation. So for those of you scoring at home, that means that four of the five teams that will be projected to finish in the top half of the standings were among the teams that finished in the bottom half a year ago. And the lone team that is picked to remain in the bottom half would still consider this projection to be a pretty significant step forward. So I guess what I’m getting at is that 2019 may look nothing like 2018 in the DTBL. Here are the previews for the teams picked to finish in sixth and a tie for seventh places.
Charlie’s Thunder Choppers
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 9th (4th)
- Home Runs – 9th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
- Runs Scored - 10th (7th)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd)
- Earned Run Average - 3rd (4th)
- WHIP Ratio - 2nd (6th)
- Wins - 1st (3rd)
- Saves – 6th (2nd)
- Strike Outs – 5th (4th)
- Total Batting Points – 10th (7th)
- Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
- Total Points – 7th-T (4th)
Summary:
Last year marked the fifth time in six seasons that the Thunder Choppers finished in the top four of the league. However, once again, they weren’t able to keep pace with the league champion. Despite all of those high finishes, they’ve only come close to a title once in that stretch, finishing 2 1/2 points out in 2016. It was a mediocre offense that held them back a year ago. Unfortunately, these projections show that being an issue again this season as they are tabbed to record the fewest batting points in the league. But there could be a little more upside this time around as they went heavier than usual on younger players with higher upsides in the draft. Anthony Rizzo and Whit Merrifield have strong offensive projections, but none of their other hitters jump off the page. New additions Miguel Andujar, Franmil Reyes and Willy Adames have intriguing potential though. And let’s not forget returning outfielder Byron Buxton, who was the top prospect in all of baseball just a few years ago. If he ever figures it out, he could be a fantasy superstar. The pitching staff was very good last year, but could be even better in 2019. Chris Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender. Trevor Bauer had a huge breakout a year ago and is their clear #2 now. Bauer’s Indians teammate Shane Bieber is the exciting new addition to the Choppers rotation. The bullpen could be excellent as well, but Craig Kimbrel is going to need to sign with a MLB team sooner than later to solidify the group. Otherwise, it will be Ken Giles and Jordan Hicks leading the way. One fallback plan if Kimbrel never gets a job will be Corbin Burnes, who can continue the Choppers tradition of having a starting pitcher accumulating stats from a relief pitching slot, something these projections don’t really take into account. A seventh place finish would be disappointing for the Choppers. If their offense is better than prognosticated, they will likely finish in the top half of the standings once again.
David’s Darkhorses
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (2nd)
- Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (1st)
- Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
- Stolen Bases – 8th (4th)
- Earned Run Average - 8th (6th)
- WHIP Ratio - 10th (4th)
- Wins – 10th (9th)
- Saves - 5th (8th)
- Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
- Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
- Total Pitching Points - 10th (7th)
- Total Points – 7th-T (2nd)
Summary:
Of the four teams projected to drop from the top to bottom half of the league this season, the Darkhorses would be the biggest disappointment if this actually came to pass. They put a serious scare into the Kings down the stretch last season before falling a little short. Had the pitching staff been a little more productive, they would have won the league. But they are now projected to have the worst pitching staff in the league. The numbers are dragged down a bit by a couple of their surplus Braves starters who don’t figure to be regulars in the rotation though. Speaking of Braves starters, they have four of them. First round pick Mike Foltynewicz will be the key to ensuring they don’t have the worst staff in the league. He will slot in behind Jacob deGrom, who once again should be one of the best pitchers in the league. A little more win luck for him would be helpful as well. The projections aren’t quite as optimistic about Patrick Corbin or Jose Berrios, but the talent is there for this to be a pretty good staff. With Corey Knebel’s health a huge concern, they may have trouble racking up the saves. Brad Hand is the only safe bet to be a significant save accumulator. Meanwhile, the offense should remain one of the best in the league. They have seven hitters projected for 3+ PAR, tied for the most in the league. Those seven: Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Daniel Murphy, Xander Boagarts, Bryce Harper, George Springer and Christian Yelich. And that doesn’t even include J.T. Realmuto, who may be the best catcher in the league. They could benefit from some positive home ballpark changes among those guys too, namely Harper, Realmuto and Murphy. This is a very deep offensive unit. Whether or not you believe the Darkhorses will compete for the title, or finish close to these projections instead largely depends on what you expect from their pitching staff. If better than advertised, they will be a dangerous team once again.
Kat’s Komodos
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 6th (7th)
- Home Runs – 7th (5th)
- Runs Batted In – 9th (5th)
- Runs Scored – 4th (6th)
- Stolen Bases - 1st (1st)
- Earned Run Average - 10th (10th)
- WHIP Ratio - 6th (10th)
- Wins - 3rd (5th)
- Saves - 8th (9th)
- Strike Outs – 6th (8th)
- Total Batting Points – 5th (4th)
- Total Pitching Points - 6th-T (9th)
- Total Points – 6th (9th)
Summary:
Finally, we come to our first team that did not finish in the top half of the standings last season. But this projection also shows what would be a significant change in fortune for a Komodos squad that finished ninth a year ago. Perhaps hidden a bit by the overall place of finish was just how solid of an offensive core this team has already assembled. The 31 batting points they earned in 2018 was more than the Gators franchise they inherited had accumulated in any season since 2008. Since their focus was almost exclusively on pitching in the early rounds of the draft, this is basically the same offensive team as a year ago, led by Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger and Starling Marte. Two other guys who don’t receive a ton of attention when focusing on the best players in MLB, but who are fantasy studs are Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo. This team’s most glaring strength is their speed. Marte, Ramirez, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith should give the Komodos a great chance of winning the stolen base category once again. The main reason for optimism that 2019 will be a huge step forward for this franchise is the seemingly improved pitching staff. The second overall pick in the draft, Walker Buehler gives them a potential ace, which they simply did not have last year. The rest of the rotation is filled with steady, solid veterans in David Price, J.A. Happ, Rich Hill and Jose Quintana. At first glance, the bullpen doesn’t look great with only Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates entrenched as closers. But Collin McHugh is another potential stat accumulator as a starter in a relief slot. These projections show the Komodos improving to sixth in the league in pitching points and sixth overall. Those would be massive improvements over a year ago. There are plenty of reasons for the Komodos to be optimistic about their second season in the DTBL.