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It’s Opening Day! Nearly four months after the originally scheduled start of the 2020 season, we will finally be able to watch live baseball games that count, starting with the World Series Champion Nationals hosting Gerrit Cole and the Yankees. While I’m disappointed I won’t be able to attend that game, I couldn’t be more excited to have baseball back. Nobody knows what to expect out of this 60-game mad dash to October. But I intend to enjoy every minute of it. Or at least until the White Sox first excruciating loss.
This final 2020 DTBL preview article will cover the two teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the standings. While I didn’t do extensive research to verify this, I believe these are the two teams that in recent years the annual projections tend to get the most wrong. But in opposite directions. The past two seasons, the Darkhorses were projected to finish in sixth and seventh places. They actually finished in second both years. Meanwhile, the Jackalope were picked to finish fourth and tied for first in ’18 and ’19, while ending up in tenth and seventh places those seasons. So is it a good or bad sign for these teams to top the projections this year? Time will tell. The talent on both rosters should give them a leg up on most of the competition though. Here are the teams projected to finish at the top of the standings.
David’s Darkhorses
Category – Projected Rank (2019 Rank)
- Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
- Home Runs – 7th (1st)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (1st)
- Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 3rd (7th)
- Wins – 5th (4th)
- Saves – 2nd (5th)
- Strike Outs – 4th (5th)
- Total Batting Points – 3rd-T (1st)
- Total Pitching Points - 3rd (5th)
- Total Points - 2nd (2nd)
Summary:
This is the 10 year anniversary of the last of the Darkhorses 4-peat championships. While the franchise fell off a bit at the beginning of last decade, they have been a consistent title contender in recent years. Last year, they had the best offense in the league, by a wide margin. But a middle of the pack pitching staff prevented them from being able to keep up with the Kings. Interestingly, these projections show their hitters taking a step back, but major improvement from the pitchers. That league best offense from ’19 remains almost entirely intact. There are several MVP candidates on this roster, including outfielders Christian Yelich and Bryce Harper, third baseman Alex Bregman, and if you consider positional value, catcher J.T. Realmuto should be on that list as well. The Astros duo of George Springer and Michael Brantly round out a very solid outfield. Xander Bogaerts, Josh Bell, Matt Chapman and newcomer Brandon Lowe complete an infield this is also well above average. Really, there is no noticeable hole on the batting side of this roster. The pitching staff received most of the attention in the draft, and could be a much improved group in 2020. First round pick Chris Paddack joins a rotation that already has arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom. Jose Berrios and Patrick Corbin are solid mid-rotation pieces as well. One player who should really benefit from the late start to the season is James Paxton, who would not have been healthy enough to pitch back in April, but should be good for a full season starting now. The same could be said for reliever Corey Knebel, although his upside is limited in terms of saves. Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand and Taylor Rogers form a very strong trio of closers that should put the Darkhorses near the top of the saves category. If you think these projections might be a little light on the Darkhorses power potential, they probably should be viewed as the favorites to win it all this season. No team enters the season with a more complete, and currently healthy roster.
Jay’s Jackalope
Category – Projected Rank (2019 Rank)
- Batting Average – 6th (10th)
- Home Runs - 1st (5th)
- Runs Batted In - 1st (3rd)
- Runs Scored - 5th (8th)
- Stolen Bases – 5th (4th)
- Earned Run Average - 1st (7th)
- WHIP Ratio - 2nd (5th)
- Wins - 3rd (5th-T)
- Saves – 8th (9th)
- Strike Outs - 1st (7th)
- Total Batting Points – 2nd (6th)
- Total Pitching Points - 1st (7th)
- Total Points - 1st (7th)
Summary:
These projections are a little shocking, especially on the pitching side of things. As mentioned up top, the Jackalope have a recent history of not meeting expectations, at least those established by using this projection system. So maybe being picked as the favorite for the second consecutive year isn’t a great thing. The batting projections make some sense because this roster is loaded with good hitters. Reigning Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up Ronald Acuna leads the way. His five category prowess gives the Jackalope a solid base on which to build. If healthy, Giancarlo Stanton is a nice second piece in the outfield. Ryan Braun could be one of the top beneficiaries to the full time DH in the National League. The Jackalope infield is solid all around, led by veterans Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt. First round pick Keston Hiura has exciting potential as well. He could be the best pure hitter taken in the draft this year, despite not having as much acclaim as the players taken ahead of him. Gary Sanchez remains one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. There is a lot to like about the Jackalope’s offensive potential. Where I think they may have a hard time reaching these projections is on the mound. The methodology used to create these numbers may be inflating the pitching numbers a bit because of the lack of depth in the rotation. With Luis Severino out for the year, the Jackalope only have five healthy starting pitchers entering the season. So the gaudy numbers of Gerrit Cole aren’t weighed down by any depth pieces. If the rotation stays completely healthy, they should be in good shape. If not… well, things could get ugly. Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow will be Cole’s sidekicks. Dinelson Lamet was a nice addition to the rotation. The bullpen is a concern. Raisel Iglesias is the only closer with pretty good job security. Sean Doolittle should get the bulk of the save opportunities early on though. Clearly, the Jackalope have the talent needed to win the title despite four straight seasons in the bottom half of the league. But I’m not sure I would anoint them as the favorites, as these projections do.
Now that we’ve taken a glance at all ten teams, it is time to post the full projected standings. First, here are the numbers my spreadsheets spit out for this 60-game schedule:
And here is what my original 162-game projections looked like when I compiled them after the draft in late March. Keep in mind that these were computed using projections for some players who have since gotten hurt or opted out of the season:
Baseball is back! I hope you enjoy the start of the season.