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In the second part of the 2022 DTBL preview series, we’ll take a look at three teams that are projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings. However, as covered in the first part, this most definitely doesn’t mean these teams aren’t championship contenders. What these three teams have in common is that they expose some flaws in my projection system, in different ways. These projections consider the full 28 player roster at the completion of the draft. Even players who may be slated to spend most or all of the season off the active roster are counted just as much as the teams’ stars. Team totals are scaled to a target total of 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched. If a team’s extra five players skew more towards a certain position group compared to the rest of the league, this could alter their numbers either positively or negatively. One of the teams covered below is the only team in the league with three catchers on their roster at the moment. So they are disproportionally hurt in these projections by having an extra player at the weakest position. Meanwhile, another team has only one extra hitter, meaning that the guys who will compose their regular lineup are not being offset by as many bench players as other teams. Just something to keep in mind. Here are two teams slated to tie for seventh place and another team one spot ahead of them.
Kelly’s Cougars
Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)
- Batting Average – 7th (10th)
- Home Runs – 10th (7th)
- Runs Batted In - 10th (3rd)
- Runs Scored – 10th (6th)
- Stolen Bases – 5th (10th)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (4th)
- WHIP Ratio - 3rd (6th)
- Wins – 5th (4th-T)
- Saves – 1st (9th)
- Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)
- Total Batting Points - 10th (8th)
- Total Pitching Points - 2nd (5th)
- Total Points – 7th-T (7th)
Summary:
The Cougars are the team I mentioned above with three catchers on the roster. In addition to that, they only have two extra hitters on the roster at the moment. So catchers make up about 19% of the batting roster compared to more like 12% for most teams. So it would be reasonable to assume they are capable of much more than these hitting projections suggest. That said, the offense is clearly their weaker unit. Perhaps their two most important hitters made moves into and out of Colorado in recent weeks. Kris Bryant is a decent bet to revitalize his career in the thin air of Denver. Meanwhile, Trevor Story is moving to the lower altitude of Boston. Besides those two, the other big change from last year is the addition of first round pick Cedric Mullins who broke out a 30/30 season in 2021, seemingly from nowhere. Perhaps it is a big ask for a repeat, but a 20/20 season would be rather useful as well. Salvador Perez had one of the best fantasy seasons from a catcher in league history last year. His 48 home runs were five more than any other catcher had every recorded in the DTBL. If he comes close to repeating that, the Cougars will have a huge leg up on the rest of the league. Jose Abreu continues to produce for them as well. The Cougars pitching staff has a good chance to be the league’s best. Corbin Burnes, Lucas Giolito and Kevin Gausman were all outstanding a year ago. They are joined by second round pick Carlos Rodon who is coming off the best season of his career as well. All four of those pitchers have excellent projections for this season. Ryan Pressly leads a bullpen that has five guys who are decent bets to lead their respective teams in saves this season. The other four are Corey Knebel, Scott Barlow, Alex Colome and Lucas Sims. Even if one or two of them don’t pan out, they should have a good chance of finishing at or near the top of the saves category. This is definitely a championship caliber pitching staff. The question will be if the veteran led offense can provide enough punch to push them to the top.
Jay’s Jackalope
Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (6th)
- Home Runs – 5th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 6th (10th)
- Runs Scored – 7th (10th)
- Stolen Bases - 1st (5th)
- Earned Run Average – 7th (1st)
- WHIP Ratio - 6th (4th)
- Wins - 2nd (8th-T)
- Saves - 9th (7th)
- Strike Outs – 4th (4th)
- Total Batting Points – 7th (10th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
- Total Points – 7th-T (8th)
Summary:
The Jackalope remain one of the most talent rich franchises in this league. The problem is that their roster is currently loaded with red flags. Actually, I should say red crosses as almost literally half the pitching staff is not at full health entering this season. And their best overall player, Ronald Acuna Jr, also won’t play until at least May as he recovers from a torn ACL that cost him a good chunk of last season. If the Jackalope can somehow scrape together enough healthy bodies, they could be dangerous. Paul Goldschmidt, Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon and Adalberto Mondesi make up an impressive group of 1B/3B. Rendon returning to form is one of the biggest keys for this team. The middle infield is bolstered with Jonathan India joining Dansby Swanson. The outfield is young with plenty of potential. Giancarlo is the star, but Jarred Kelenic and Adolis Garcia will be asked to keep the group above water until Acuna returns. Unless injuries just become too much to overcome, the Jackalope are a safe bet not to be the league’s worst batting team like they were in 2021. The pitching staff is an absolute MASH unit right now. Newcomer Garret Crochet was lost for the season with a UCL tear. His White Sox teammate Lance Lynn will miss the first two months with a knee injury. It is not certain that Tyler Glasnow will pitch this season. Luis Castillo will start the season on the injured list too. That puts almost all of their eggs in Gerrit Cole’s basket. It is imperative that he be one of the best pitchers in baseball if the Jackalope have any chance. The other starting pitchers they will count on will be Sean Manaea, Tanner Houck, Jordan Montgomery and Triston McKenzie who have had varying levels of success in their careers to date. The bullpen has a chance to be a real strength for the Jackalope, though maybe not in the saves category. Raisel Iglesias and Giovanny Gallegos will have to carry them in that category. But a healthy Luis Severino could give the whole pitching staff a boost as a starter in a relief slot. The good news for the Jackalope is that in a couple months there will probably be several other teams absolutely ravaged by injuries too. The question is if they will be able to keep pace with so many guys out early.
Charlie’s Thunder Choppers
Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)
- Batting Average – 8th (5th)
- Home Runs - 7th (4th)
- Runs Batted In - 8th (4th)
- Runs Scored – 8th (3rd)
- Stolen Bases - 10th (3rd)
- Earned Run Average - 2nd (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 1st (5th)
- Wins – 6th (4th-T)
- Saves - 3rd (3rd)
- Strike Outs - 1st (5th)
- Total Batting Points – 9th (2nd-T)
- Total Pitching Points - 1st (3rd)
- Total Points – 6th (2nd)
Summary:
Last year, the Choppers wound up neck-and-neck with the Kings in the title race pretty much all season, before tailing off a bit down the stretch. Can they keep it together all the way to the finish line this time? Their hitters will need to outperform these projections to make that happen. The Choppers went heavy on pitching in the draft, so their offense remains largely in tact from a year ago when they finished tied for second most batting points. So a drop to ninth would be pretty disappointing. The projections show a team without any elite hitters, but a lot of very good ones. Pete Alonso and Whit Merrifield are easily their best infielders. D.J. LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Polanco are all solid players, but not great bets to provide huge fantasy value at this stage of their careers. The outfield is a little deeper with more upside. Franmil Reyes, Joey Gallo and Kyle Schwarber are all decent picks to lead the league in home runs. Gallo is particularly interesting now that he will have a full season of aiming for the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium. The only problem here is that none of these guys can run. In fact, Merrifield is the only player on the roster projected to steal more than 15 bases. While the Choppers may not replicate their ’21 offensive numbers, they have a great shot of improving upon an already strong pitching staff. Their first four draft picks were all starting pitchers: Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert. Those four join a staff that already contained three ace level pitchers in Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieber and Chris Sale. Sale will miss the first couple months of the season with a rib injury, but they have more than enough depth to cover that. In fact, no other team has anything even close to this kind of starting pitching depth. The bullpen should be good enough to protect their status as one of the league’s best total pitching staffs. Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano lead the relief crew. It would be quite shocking if the Choppers aren’t near the top of the league in pitching points. As long as their offense isn’t a huge flop, they should once again find themselves in a pennant race this year. 2021 was their highest finish since winning the championship in 1999. Can they move up one more spot and end that 23 year title drought?