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There is no blueprint for how to approach a fantasy baseball draft following a 60 game, pandemic affected season. How much weight do you put in players’ performances in such a short sample size? Is it safe to ignore the poor numbers of a veteran player with a long track record of success? How do you judge a rookie who made his MLB debut after not being able to play in real minor league games for almost a full year? Can the breakout stars of 2020 be trusted to repeat their performances over the long haul of a full season? And finally, how do you judge the players who actually contracted and recovered from COVID-19? Nobody knows the right answers to any of these questions. And based on the results of the first round of the 2021 DTBL Draft, it would seem there were many different answers among the league’s members.
Going into this draft, I had absolutely no idea what to expect. Unlike most years, there were hardly any sure-fire first round selections. Partly because I was the owner of the second pick, I didn’t even bother trying to compile a top ten list like I normally do. But if I had, I think I can safely say I would have been wrong on close to half of the names. And outside of the first two picks, I’m not sure I would have correctly pegged any other players with the teams that selected them. Besides the general unpredictability, the other abnormal theme of the first round was the number of non-DTBL rookies selected. Four players were chosen who have previous experience on DTBL rosters. I have complete draft records dating back to 2005. In the previous 16 years, no more than three non-rookies were selected in any year. While unusual, this was not terribly surprising since there just wasn’t a lot of time for newcomers to make their mark during the 2020 MLB season.
The one pick in this draft that was definitely not surprising was the first one. The Komodos selected White Sox young star outfielder Luis Robert. The five tool phenom hit the ground running with an incredible first month of his big league career, during which he wasn’t only one of the best rookies in the game, but one of the top players as well. But even Robert comes with some question marks as he really struggled down the stretch, seeing his batting average fall to .233. He was still just one steal away from a double/double HR/SB season, which would have been more like 25/25 stretched out to a full campaign. With his power and speed, Robert is a legitimate 40/40 candidate down the road. HR and SB were already two of the Komodos better categories, so he could help boost them among the top teams in the league in those areas.
The second pick is another player with well above average power and decent speed as well. The Kings boosted their extremely disappointing offense from a year ago with the selection of outfielder Randy Arozarena. Arozerana became a breakout star in October, almost singlehandedly leading the Rays offense on the way to the World Series. While he did seemingly come out of nowhere, he actually started mashing soon after being activated from the COVID-19 list in late August. He slugged seven homers in September before adding an incredible 10 more in the Postseason. Even though he made his MLB debut in 2019, Arozarena actually remains MLB rookie eligible this year since he missed so much time in 2020 recovering from the virus. For the Kings sake, hopefully he kept up his now famous pushup regimen this offseason. If so, he could help the Kings rebound from a shockingly disappointing 2020.
With the third pick in the draft, we had a quick throwback to last year’s draft that featured four sons of former DTBL players selected in the first 15 picks. The Choppers selected third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, 28 years after his father Brian, also a third baseman, played for the Choppers in the inaugural season of the DTBL of 1993. The elder Hayes played four seasons in this league. Ke’Bryan figures to stick around much longer. Known mostly for his slick fielding as a prospect, Hayes burst onto the scene with a .376 average and five home runs in 85 big league at bats. He has an advanced bat and runs well too, so there is serious five category potential here. This marks the fourth straight year that the Choppers have selected an infielder with their first pick. Hayes will join last year’s pick of Pete Alonso to form a strong corner duo for years to come.
So after three picks, this first round didn’t look too dissimilar from previous years. But things started to change at four. The Demigods selected veteran outfielder J.D. Martinez, who they had just cut from their roster last month. I suppose this could be chalked up as a case of seller’s remorse. Martinez struggled badly a year ago, but this came on the heels of three straight seasons of hitting at least .300 with 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI. While he’s no youngster at 33, it seems likely that his ’20 campaign was an outlier and a product of a weird season. Had the Demigods not picked him, some other team surely would have done so relatively early. The surprise here is that it was the team that just cut him that made the pick. If you ignore that fact though, Martinez makes all the sense in the world for a Demigods squad that has more than enough talent to contend and could really use his proven bat in the lineup.
The Cougars followed by selecting another non-DTBL rookie. But this one was more of a technicality as starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is at a completely different place now than he was when the Choppers took a late flier on him as a relief pitcher in 2019. Burnes fell out of the league last year, but now returns as a starter with huge upside. He started nine of the 12 games he appeared in last season and put up some impressive numbers. He had a 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 60 innings. This is the second straight year the Cougars have used the fifth overall pick on a starting pitcher who had fallen off the league roster the previous year. Worked out pretty well with Lucas Giolito. Those two should help the Cougars improve upon a rotation which somewhat held them back from being contenders a year ago.
Jo Adell entered 2020 as one of the top prospects in baseball, but probably not quite ready for the majors. The lack of a minor league season probably prevented him from that last bit of development time he could have used before making his debut. Instead, he was thrown into the fire with the Angels for a bulk of the season. It did not go well. He hit just .161 and struck out in over 40% of his plate appearances. He is flying under the radar this spring, in large part because he lost rookie eligibility and is thus not being discussed in prospect rankings. But he is still very much a coveted prospect with great power and speed tools. If he can improve the hit tool, he has a chance to be a star. He will likely start this season in the minors though. But that did not prevent the Mavericks from selecting him with the sixth pick. This is a luxury the Mavericks could afford with their absolutely loaded roster, particularly in the outfield. They don’t really need anything from Adell to be a contender this season. But the enormous upside was too much to pass up.
The next pick was another player with an uncertain role this season. The Beanballers selected Dodgers pitcher Dustin May with the sixth pick. May is also not a DTBL rookie. He was picked in the sixth round by the Mavericks last year. But not having a firm grasp on a rotation spot heading into the season made him expendable. The Beanballers were willing to gamble on the talent. Even if he isn’t able to crack the Dodgers rotation to start the season, it would be surprising if he didn’t get plenty of opportunities sooner than later. May did start 10 games a year ago and had an excellent 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. If he can improve on his strikeout rate, he has top of the rotation potential. The Beanballers could definitely use a big season from him this year as they bide their time before Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery.
With the eighth pick, the Moonshiners went a more traditional route, taking a rookie who made a strong impression in his debut. Orioles outfielder Ryan Mountcastle put up numbers very similar to Hayes. He hit .333 with five home runs in 140 plate appearances. Mountcastle was a consistently strong hitter in the Orioles farm system for five full years before he finally got his opportunity in the big leagues last season. He was the fifth outfielder selected in the first round. Mountcastle should help shore up a Moonshiners offense that was below average a year ago and an outfield that should be much improved with Kyle Tucker quietly becoming a fantasy star and Shohei Ohtani returning to the offensive side of things this year.
Next, the Jackalope selected shortstop Dansby Swanson, who has had a very interesting four year DTBL career. This is the fourth time he has been drafted, by four different teams. He has never spent consecutive seasons on the same roster. Originally a second round pick of the Naturals in 2017, this was his first time as a first rounder. Swanson is coming off a career year in which he hit 10 homers with 35 RBI in a shortened season. He was a solid contributor to the championship winning Darkhorses, but was squeezed out with their deep roster. The Jackalope were happy to add him to their infield, which was mildly disappointing a year ago. Their offense will feature six of their former first round picks this season. Even a minor improvement to that offense should put them in strong contention for a title.
Finally, the defending champion Darkhorses closed out the first round by selecting another young slugger who made the most of the shortened season, but also enters 2021 with a somewhat unsettled role. First baseman Dominic Smith was the final pick of the first round. Smith made his MLB debut in 2017, but is still just 25 years old. Last season, he hit .316 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI. With Pete Alonso firmly entrenched at first base for the Mets and the designated hitter not being in play in the NL this year, Smith figures to see a bulk of his time in the outfield. If he gets semi regular playing time, he could be a monster offensive force for a team that is already the best team in the league with the bats. Immediately following the selection of Smith, eight of the Darkhorses ten hitters were players who hit double digit home runs a year ago. And that doesn’t even include Alex Bregman, who is only a year removed from hitting 40. This is a truly scary offense.
Half of the first round picks were outfielders and another could move there a year from now. Meanwhile, only two pitchers were selected in the first ten picks. This was despite much more league roster shuffling among hurlers than hitters. It will be interesting to see which strategies pay off following a very unusual 2020.