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I’m not going to post the full projected standings until all ten teams have been revealed, but here is a spoiler alert: there is a pretty wide point gap between the top and bottom half of the standings. Usually, I like to bucket the teams with similar point projections into the same preview article. But the three way tie for seventh place made that a little tough to do. The first team that will be covered in this piece is only one point ahead of those teams. Meanwhile, this article will cover yet another projected tie, with a pair of teams picked to finish in fourth place. Those teams are a full 16 points clear of sixth place. The three teams covered here feature a little more roster balance than those slated to finish below them. However, they are not fully loaded teams on paper. One of these squads had a very disappointing 2020 season, another had promise but faded to the bottom half, while the third would like to build on the momentum built in the shortened campaign. Here are the teams projected to finish in fourth through sixth places.
Kevin’s Kings
Category – Projected Rank (2020 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (10th)
- Home Runs – 2nd (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 2nd (10th)
- Runs Scored – 4th (10th)
- Stolen Bases - 10th (2nd)
- Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
- WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
- Wins – 6th (8th)
- Saves – 6th (8th)
- Strike Outs – 7th (6th)
- Total Batting Points – 6th (10th)
- Total Pitching Points – 8th (9th)
- Total Points – 6th (9th)
Summary:
Last year’s Kings title defense was one of the worst this league has ever seen, perhaps only challenged by the 2017 Kings who also finished in ninth place the year after winning the title. But in 2020, the Kings were a two-time defending champ that stumbled to its fewest standings points since 2009 and second worst total since the league expanded to six teams. The total collapse of the offense was especially shocking. But these projections show some major improvements there, particularly in the power department. First round pick Randy Arozarena will try to give Mookie Betts some help in a depleted outfield. Betts has been carrying this offense for years and remains one of the best players in the league. Besides Betts and Arozarena though, the only other hitter with a 4+ PAR projection is first baseman Matt Olson, who can’t possibly hit below the Mendoza line again, can he? The Kings could really use more from infielders Carlos Correa, Rhys Hoskins and Mike Moustakas as well. A bunch of old friends are back in the fold for the Kings as they used draft picks to reacquire outfielder A.J. Pollock, second baseman Ryan McMahon and pitcher Marcus Stroman. Late bloomer Mike Yastrzemski and bright newcomer Dylan Carlson were also nice additions to the outfield. The pitching staff looks nothing like the group that helped win three of the past five titles. The reliable veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander is now just Scherzer. Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers, Zack Wheeler and Ian Anderson all have intriguing upside, but also very large shoes to fill. One of those four will need to ascend to elite status for the Kings pitching staff to return to respectability. Stroman is another steady veteran presence for the rotation, but he hasn’t pitched in a real game since 2019. The bullpen is almost entirely new, but lacking certainty in closer roles. Richard Rodriguez, Matt Barnes and Amir Garrett all offer potential in that category though. The Kings will have a lot to overcome to prove that last season was a fluke. But their recent track record of yo-yoing between the top and bottom of the standings could bode well for them.
Dom’s Demigods
Category – Projected Rank (2020 Rank)
- Batting Average – 2nd (4th)
- Home Runs - 3rd (10th)
- Runs Batted In - 3rd (5th)
- Runs Scored – 3rd (3rd)
- Stolen Bases – 5th (6th)
- Earned Run Average – 7th (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
- Wins – 4th (2nd-T)
- Saves – 10th (10th)
- Strike Outs - 6th (4th)
- Total Batting Points – 2nd (5th)
- Total Pitching Points – 7th (4th-T)
- Total Points – 4th-T (7th)
Summary:
The Demigods were much better than their seventh place finish might have indicated a year ago. They were an above average team in almost all facets and finished with a point total that would have put them in the top half of the standings virtually any other season. So 2020 was definitely a step in the right direction after a dreadful 2019. And these numbers show a glimmer of hope for further improvement. Most notably, their third place projection in home runs would be welcomed after finishing dead last in ’20. It is not really any new additions that are causing that though, but rather an anticipated return to form for players like J.D. Martinez, who they cut in February and then redrafted this month. Six hitters are projected for at least 30 home runs: Martinez, reigning co-MVP Fernando Tatis Jr., Freddie Freeman, Francisco Lindor, Byron Buxton and C.J. Cron. Tatis is clearly the headliner and a likely MVP candidate again this season. Josh Bell, Jose Altuve and Austin Meadows are bounceback candidates. Wil Myers quietly returned to solid contributor status last season. The Demigods probably have one of the best catching tandems with Travis d’Arnaud joining Willson Contreras. This is a very strong group of hitters, from top to bottom. The second place batting projection makes sense. Where they will need to exceed expectations is on the pitching side. Aaron Nola remains the staff ace and a safe bet to put up very strong numbers again this season. Zac Gallen’s health is an immediate concern, although the worst case scenario seems to have been avoided for now. If healthy, he has star potential as well. A return to health for Corey Kluber would be a major blessing for the Demigods who haven’t been the same without him for most of the past couple seasons. Veteran Kenta Maeda was a legit Cy Young contender a year ago. Max Fried is the one youngster in the rotation with untapped potential. It appears the Demigods will once again punt the saves category. Last year, they recorded just six of them all season. Some combination of Rafael Montero, Chris Martin and Matt Wisler should put them ahead of that mark this year, but still likely to finish at or near the bottom. Freddy Peralta starting the season in the Brewers rotation gives them a potential wild card though. This is a very solid Demigods squad. It would not be surprising to see them contend this season.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2020 Rank)
- Batting Average – 6th (7th)
- Home Runs – 5th (8th)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (6th)
- Runs Scored – 6th (4th)
- Stolen Bases – 4th (8th-T)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
- WHIP Ratio – 3rd (5th)
- Wins – 7th (2nd-T)
- Saves - 1st (2nd)
- Strike Outs - 8th (2nd)
- Total Batting Points – 5th (7th)
- Total Pitching Points – 4th-T (2nd)
- Total Points – 4th-T (3rd)
Summary:
Besides the champion Darkhorses, perhaps no team had a more positive 2020 season than the Moonshiners who posted their highest finish since 2011. That was mostly accomplished on the strength of their pitching staff. While the pitchers are probably still ahead of the hitters, this does appear to be a more balanced squad this season. I doubt many people would be able to correctly guess who is the Moonshiners projected batting PAR leader for this season. If you guessed outfielder Kyle Tucker, congratulations! Tucker is a very strong candidate for breakout star of 2021. He has immense power and speed projectability. Most of the other stars of the Moonshiners offense are hulking sluggers, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Miguel Sano, Max Muncy and Rafael Devers. But Tucker isn’t the only strong hitter and runner. Shortstop Tim Anderson can also contribute in all five categories. Michael Conforto shouldn’t be overlooked either. Newcomer Ryan Mountcastle should give a boost to the Moonshiners outfield, as should Shohei Ohtani who is returning to the offensive side of things after a disappointing and injury riddled 2020 on the mound. Part of the reason why the Moonshiners were able to shift Ohtani back to the outfield is because of the extensive depth of their starting rotation. Yu Darvish returned to form as one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and figures to continue that form in San Diego this year. Veterans Zack Greinke, Charlie Morton and Kyle Hendricks aren’t overwhelming at this stage of their careers, but they are still very productive and reliable pitchers. The potential breakout star on the pitching side for the Moonshiners is Jesus Luzardo. The first place saves projection is perhaps a tad optimistic as it includes a full season’s worth of saves out of Kirby Yates who won’t pitch this year. But they still ought to be in decent shape with Edwin Diaz, Trevor Rosenthal and Jake McGee as either certain or very likely closers. While the fourth place projection in pitching points isn’t particularly impressive, I’m not sure any other team can match the Moonshiners pitching depth, so there is upside here. Combine that with what appears to be an improved offense and you should have the makings of a contending ballclub.