2008 PAR numbers

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2008 PAR numbers

Postby Kevin » Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:18 pm

Last night, I completed the PAR calculations for the 2008 season and posted those numbers. This means we now have a full decade's worth of data for that stat. Perhaps I will get a few more seasons done this winter, but no promises as I have several other major tasks planned.

A couple interesting things stuck out to me when examining the '08 numbers. First, our choices for MVP and Cy Young that year were NOT the batting and pitching PAR leaders. David Wright won the MVP, but he was 0.4 points behind Albert Pujols. In hindsight, Pujols finishing fifth in the balloting for MVP was pretty interesting. Of course, he went on to win the DTBL MVP the following two seasons anyway. Also, it is worth noting that the MVP voting was all over the place in '08. Five different players received first place votes and nobody received more than three.

On the pitching side, the late Roy Halladay led the way in pitching PAR in '08 (13.3) ranking 10th among all single seasons calculated so far. He's already up to 54 PAR for his career and that only includes the second half of his DTBL career. A sad reminder that we recently lost one of the greatest pitchers in league history. Halladay finished third in the Cy Young vote that year. The award was won by Tim Lincecum, who was in a virtual tie for second in PAR with C.C. Sabathia.

Finally, the league total PAR of 411 for 2008 was a bit shy of the ideal total of around 450 (available standings points above the minimum of 10 for finishing last place in every category). But the average season total over the ten years I've calculated to date is 447, which is just about perfect. The offensive explosion of the past couple years has helped even this out. Overall, I remain pleased with how these numbers are turning out.
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Re: 2008 PAR numbers

Postby Kevin » Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:38 pm

I completed the PAR numbers for one more past season: 2007. This will likely be it until next winter.

The 2007 numbers came out just about perfectly. Both batting (228) and pitching (234) totals were close to the ideal result of 225. It is the best balance we've seen so far in the eleven seasons I've calculated.

On the individual player front, Alex Rodriguez now holds the single season batting PAR record of 12.01 in 2007. This makes sense because he had one of the best seasons in league history in '07, slugging 54 home runs with 143 runs, 156 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .314 average. He was the unanimous MVP selection that year. Hanley Ramirez and Matt Holliday also had tremendous seasons, confirmed by PAR numbers near 9.

The Cy Young decision was pretty clear in '07 as well with Jake Peavy receiving nine of the ten first place votes. He easily led the way in PAR at 13.2. C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett and Johan Santana were all over 10 PAR as well.

With 2007 numbers added in, Miguel Cabrera and Clayton Kershaw remain the league's all-time leaders in batting and pitching PAR, respectively. Kershaw didn't debut until 2009, while Cabrera still figures to add to his totals when I get around to the next few seasons.
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