MLB Predictions - better late than never

[Kevin]

I thought I'd get a little action going on this forum. Here are my 2004 MLB predictions. Feel free to post your own as well, or just rip mine apart of you want.


AL East

1. Yankees - The Red Sox may be the second best team in baseball. Unfortunately for them, the Yankees are the best. Losing Clemens and Pettitte will hurt, but Brown and Vazquez may be better if healthy. The offensive lineup is almost ridiculous. Jeter, ARod, Giambi, Sheffield, Posada... who are you supposed to get out?

2. Red Sox - This team is loaded. Problem is, they are in the same division as the Yankees. The rotation is awesome with the addition of Schilling. The bullpen is much improved as well. I'm giving the Yankees the edge because the Red Sox have a couple offensive players who will be hard pressed to repeat their '03 numbers.

3. Blue Jays - Toronto is in the wrong division. They would be the favorites to win the AL Central, but in the East they have little chance to reach the playoffs. The pitching staff is questionable, especially in the bullpen.

4. Orioles - The lineup is MUCH better with the addition of Lopez, Tejada and Palmeiro. Problem is, the starting rotation is one of the worst in the league. Besides Ponson, they do not have a dependable starter. They will play in some high scoring games this year.

5. Devil Rays - Some people are really talking this team up, but I just don't see it. What D-Rays pitcher would even make the team in Boston or New York? They have some nice young players, but they are at least a year away from being competitive.


AL Central

1. White Sox - Believe me, this is not much of an endorsement on my part. I am more skeptical about the Sox in '04 than any of the last five years. However, this division is a joke. The Sox are the only team in the division with a somewhat dependable pitching staff. The offense is as good as any of the competitors as well.

2. Royals - Many people are picking KC to win the Central. But can you really justify picking a team with a bad rotation and an even worse bullpen? I think they'll be lucky to finish .500.

3. Twins - If this team wins their third straight division title, this division should be broken up immediately. Has there ever been a weaker two time division champion than the '02-'03 Twins? They lost some of their key pitchers as well, particularly in the bullpen.

4. Indians - Like the Devil Rays, the Indians are a young team that is getting a lot of respect this spring. Once again, I have to question why? I see no established talent and a frightfully weak bullpen. I think they will be lucky to hold off the Tigers for fourth place.

5. Tigers - Ok, this team is not going to lose 119 again. However, Jason Johnson is their ace. Enough said.


AL West

1. Angels - Injuries derailed their hopes of defending their '02 World Series title. The '04 version is healthy and much more impressive on paper than the championship team. They don't have the same rotation as the A's, but the offense is light years ahead. Vlad Guerrero is going to have an MVP worthy season.

2. Athletics - You can not beat the A's starting rotation. Hudson, Zito and Mulder may be three of the top six or seven starters in the AL. The problem will be on offense. They will be one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, but the pitching staff will keep them in contention.

3. Mariners - This team is solid all around, but not spectacular in any area. Thus, they will have a hard time beating the Angels and A's. If Jamie Moyer somehow repeats his '03 performance, they could win this division, but that's not likely.

4. Rangers - When will the Rangers go out and get a decent pitcher? It didn't happen once again, so they will lead the league in highest ERA AGAIN! The offense can't be any better without ARod either.


NL East

1. Phillies - Despite the slow start, I really like the Phillies chances. Burrell and Bell can't possibly suck as much as they did last year. Wagner and Worrell give them one of the best bullpens around. The rotation has no aces, but plenty of number two level pitchers. This will be a tight three team race, but I'll go with the Phillies.

2. Marlins - The defending champions are not quite the same team that beat the Yankees in October. Losing Pudge will clearly hurt the offense. The pitching staff is still solid though, so I expect a solid season. Another wild card appearance is very possible.

3. Braves - Hard to pick against a team that has won 12 straight division championships, but I'm going to go ahead and do that. Losing Sheffield will be a major blow. I'm not sold on any of their starting pitchers either.

4. Mets - There is no way the Mets can be as bad as they were last year. This is not a particularly good team, but I do expect them to get out of the cellar. If Piazza stays healthy, they should score a lot more runs.

5. Expos - Please get this team out of Montreal before they become more of a joke than they already are! They have somehow remained competitive the last few years, but that will not last. There is not much left with Vazquez and Guerrero out of the picture.


NL Central

1. Astros - People seem to forget that the Astros were a late season collapse away from keeping the "loaded" Cubs team from making the playoffs. The additions of Clemens and Pettitte should push them over that hump. Losing Wagner weakens the bullpen, but they have the best overall team in this division.

2. Cubs - Missing Prior for two months could kill their championship hopes. Maddux benefited from a tremendous Braves offense last year. I think he is washed up and will not get the necessary support from this offense. They have a solid pitching staff, but it won't be quite enough this year.

3. Cardinals - Not much has changed for the Cardinals. They still have a great offense, but a very weak pitching staff. Like the Cubs and Astros, they will benefit from playing nearly 60 games against the three worst teams in the league (see next three teams), so the wild card is a possibility.

4. Brewers - Trading Sexson may turn out to be a good move, if only because they received four potential starters in return. I really don't think the Brewers are any good, but the Reds and Pirates may be even worse.

5. Reds - If Griffey gets his act together, the Reds could have a very strong offensive team. But the pitching staff is a disgrace. They can't possibly remain competitive with the Astros and Cubs with this staff.

6. Pirates - This team just continues to get worse every year. They are depending on a large number of rookies and other young players. I think the Pirates could be the worst team in baseball.


NL West

1. Diamondbacks - I'm not sold on any team in this division, but I will give the nod to the Diamondbacks. If Randy Johnson comes back strong, the loss of Curt Schilling will will not be catastrophic. However, they better score more runs than last season. Richie Sexson should help make that happen.

2. Giants - The Giants were not a terribly deep team a year ago, despite winning 100 games. This year, even more of that depth is gone. I do not see hardly any protection for Barry Bonds, so he will have a hard time seeing any pitches to hit. If the guys below him in the order do not produce, it could be a long year.

3. Padres - I think this is the most improved team in baseball. They have decided to spend some money to put together a quality team to put in their new ball park. I really like their young pitching staff (David Wells not included). Any of these top three teams could win this division.

4. Dodgers - These last two teams are polar opposites. The Dodgers can not score. Their superior pitching staff kept them afloat most of last season. Without Kevin Brown, will they be able to do the same again? I'm not so sure. The offense is not much better, if at all.

5. Rockies - Shawn Estes starting on Opening Day? Are you kidding me? I know they can't get any legitimate starters to sign with them, but they've got to do better than this. I don't understand moving their best starting pitching, Chacon, to the bullpen. What good is he going to do there? I don't see the Rockies playing in many close games.


And now to the playoffs....

Wild cards: Red Sox and Marlins

AL playoffs:
Yankees over White Sox
Angels over Red Sox
Angels over Yankees

NL playoffs:
Phillies over Diamondbacks
Astros over Marlins
Phillies over Astros

World Series:
Angels over Phillies

[Nick]

Now that the 2004 season has begun and Adrian Beltre has put a curse on my team (he does nothing for my team for 2 years, all of a sudden learns how to hit and leaves me with mysteriously incurable injuries to my two best players from year ago -- Prior and P. Wilson). It's all Beltre's fault! Anyway, Kevin made some nice picks but I think he's way off as far as the playoffs go. I see it going down like this ... AL EAST 1. Boston (Schilling is best SP of 2004) 2. New York (Vazquez becomes a big name -- finally) 3. Baltimore (two pitchers away) 4. Toronto (no chemistry on that team whatsoever) 5. Tampa Bay (Crawford goes to AS game) AL CENTRAL 1. Chicago -- let's be honest, the rest of these teams absolutely stink. If the White Sox find a way to lose the division yet again, then they might as well just contract this team. No more excuses. 2. Kansas City (Beltran's final year?) 3. Cleveland -- Sabathia keeps getting better, D'Amico gives them more stability and Gerut, Blake and Hafner only get better. 4. Minn. -- I don't like this team at all. Offense is weak. I don't know how they win unless Santana holds up all year. 5. Detroit -- Craig Monroe is rising star AL WEST 1. Angels -- I've recently moved to sunny Southern California, and I'm now listening to Angels game every night. They have a great team. They will barely beat the A's though. Erstad revives his career. 2. Oakland -- Hudson is a machine. Maybe the most underrated pitcher in baseball, mainly because he doesn't get many K's. Offense very suspect. 3. Seattle -- this team gets worse every year. Retire Edgar, please, so this team can move on. 4. Texas -- Offense is actually better, Kevin. The team will be better too. NL EAST 1. Florida -- fast start no fluke. Beckett, Penny, Pavano have all gained a butt load of confidence. Naturals' no.1 pick, Cabrera, looking just fine so far. 2. Philly -- Like Toronto, I don't know about the chemistry. Byrd and Palanco at the top a bit questionable. Myers is not throwing well. Wolf isn't throwing well. Pitching must step up at some point. 3. New York Mets (Glavine and Piazza return to form). 4. Atlanta (team is a mess, Drew already tweaks hamstring, ugh!) 5. Montreal (eh, Vargas is emerging as quality starter) NL CENTRAL 1. Houston (Clemens looks dominant, Oswalt and Miller good too). 2. Chicago (Will Prior play this year? ... they stick around, sneak into playoffs) 3. Stl (Morris isn't good enough to carry load) 4. Reds (Dunn will beat Bonds for Home Run crown) 5. Brewers (Could be Sheets' year) 6. Pirates ( Will Benson ever be good again?) NL WEST 1. Padres -- this team is solid. Eaton and Peavy soon-to-be stars. New Ball Park is pitchers' paradise. Only question is a very weak bullpen. Hoffman doesn't look right. 2. Dodgers -- It's a Southern Cal thing, I know. But Bradley takes pressure off Green, they both play well. 3. Giants (Bonds and Schmidt. The rest of the team stinks) 4. Arizona (Sexson can't replace Schilling) 5. Colorado (No Walker, Wilson iffy. Both on my team. Ugh.) This is where I stray from Kevin a lot ... AL PLAYOFFS Red Sox over White Sox Yankees (WC) over Angels (revenge for 2002) Red Sox over Yankees in seven ... Pedro goes all nine this time. NL PLAYOFFS Houston over San Diego Cubs (WC) over Florida (Wood carries this team) Houston over Chicago. (Bagwell, Biggio know time is running out. Prior goes down to injury again before playoffs begin) WORLD SERIES Red Sox over Houston (Nomar finally gets big playoff hit). Go crazy! Go crazy!