{"id":1380,"date":"2021-03-30T18:47:18","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T01:47:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=1380"},"modified":"2021-03-30T18:47:18","modified_gmt":"2021-03-31T01:47:18","slug":"2021-season-preview-part-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=1380","title":{"rendered":"2021 Season Preview:  Part I"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a id=\"QA47bj7XTyNtTAk_iJEWDA\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1231563073\" target=\"_blank\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\nwindow.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'QA47bj7XTyNtTAk_iJEWDA',sig:'ejfylIIO4wBDoNMEQpER4YJVPjYeMx-aPCRrDT4iA-w=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1231563073',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><script src=\"\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\nWelcome to the 2021 DTBL season preview series.\u00a0 As customary, I will be previewing each of the ten teams using a projection system to spit out some numbers that I will use to predict the final standings for the league and help identify the general strengths and weaknesses of each team.\u00a0 What might be a little different this year is the amount of credence one should put in these numbers.\u00a0 There is no precedent for predicting future outcomes following a 60 game season played during a global pandemic.\u00a0 But we&#8217;ll try to do that anyway.<\/p>\n<p>Once again, I am using Fangraphs&#8217; Depth Chart projections, which are a combination of the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems, adjusted to anticipated playing time.\u00a0 I grabbed these projections just prior to the draft.\u00a0 So injury and position battle news that has occurred in the past three weeks are not reflected in these numbers.\u00a0 In the team write-ups, I will try to point out any significant changes to the projections for a team, but the overall numbers that you will see are based on the dataset I grabbed several weeks ago.\u00a0 If you wish to see Fangraphs&#8217; up-to-date player projections, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/projections.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;type=fangraphsdc\">you can find them here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The team projections are made up of totals from all 28 players who were on each teams&#8217; roster at the completion of the draft.\u00a0 Those team totals are then adjusted to an expected 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched.\u00a0 So this means that some players who may never see the active roster do affect these numbers.\u00a0 I do it this way because I don&#8217;t want to make any assumptions about team&#8217;s active roster composition.\u00a0 And depth does matter since no team has ever made it through a season only needing their original 23 guys.<\/p>\n<p>Normally, I split this preview series into four parts.\u00a0 However, as you will soon see, there are a weirdly large number of teams who are projected to finish tied in the standings and it didn&#8217;t make much sense to split those teams into separate sections.\u00a0 So this first part will cover four teams, and will be followed by two more parts covering three teams each.\u00a0 In this first part, we will cover the teams projected to finish in the bottom four spots in the standings:\u00a0 one team in last place and, incredibly, three teams slated to tie for seventh place.\u00a0 As you might expect, these projections show a fatal flaw in each team that is sinking their expected standings position.\u00a0 Last year&#8217;s projections actually proved to be surprisingly accurate, correctly tabbing the top two teams, albeit in the wrong order.\u00a0 But it was way off with the last place pick, which happens to be the same team again this year.\u00a0 Here are the teams projected to finish in the bottom spots of the standings.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Ben&#8217;s Beanballers<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2020 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 7th (1st)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 7th (3rd-T)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 7th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 8th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 2nd (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 9th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 9th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 10th (5th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 9th (6th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211; 10th (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 7th (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 10th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 10th (4th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>It is pretty amazing how similar the Beanballers 2020 and 2021 projections are, especially considering how wrong they proved to be a year ago.\u00a0 They were picked to finish last with a below average offense.\u00a0 Instead, they finished in fourth place with one of the best offenses in the league.\u00a0 Can they repeat that again this year?\u00a0 Certainly seems possible, if not probable.\u00a0 They feature above average hitters at almost every position.\u00a0 Trea Turner quietly had a huge 2020 season and\u00a0had as strong a case as anybody to win the MVP award.\u00a0 He&#8217;s projected to hit 25 home runs and steal 35 bases this year, making him one of the best all-around players in the league.\u00a0 Bo Bichette gives the Beanballers two truly elite shortstops.\u00a0 Nolan Arenado no longer calls Coors Park home, but he is moving into a pretty solid situation in St. Louis.\u00a0 Luke Voit led the league in homers last year.\u00a0 He will begin this season on the injured list, but should still be among the best power hitters in the league.\u00a0 Should Yoan Moncada bounce back from a disappointing 2020 in which he was clearly compromised during his COVID-19 recovery, this will be an absolutely loaded infield.\u00a0 The outfield looks pretty strong too, led by Marcell Ozuna and one of last season&#8217;s breakout stars, Teoscar Hernandez.\u00a0 Maybe the biggest key for this team is for Victor Robles to take a step forward, as he has similar five category potential as his Nationals teammate Turner.\u00a0 It would be pretty disappointing if the Beanballers finish seventh in batting points.\u00a0 But the big obstacle to overcome will be some pretty dour pitching projections.\u00a0 If you just look at the &#8217;20 stats of their five projected Opening Day starting pitchers, things look pretty great.\u00a0 Sandy Alcantara, Chris Bassitt, Zach Davies, Dustin May and Hyun-Jin Ryu all posted ERAs of 3.00 or lower.\u00a0 But these projections seem to indicate that all five of them overachieved a year ago.\u00a0 First round pick May is the wild card here, and the Beanballers got great news on him yesterday as he will open the season in the Dodgers rotation.\u00a0 While the ERA and WHIP of the starters may take a step back, there is room for improvement in strikeouts.\u00a0 And they hope to get the services of Noah Syndergaard back at some point this summer.\u00a0 The bullpen has some upside, but Josh Hader is the only safe bet to accumulate a significant number of saves.\u00a0 If the Beanballers starting pitchers can duplicate their &#8217;20 seasons and the batters come close to their potential, they should easily exceed these low expectations.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Charlie&#8217;s Thunder Choppers<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2020 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 4th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 10th (5th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 10th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 10th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 9th (8th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 3rd (4th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 4th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 9th (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 5th (3rd-T)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211;\u00a02nd (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 10th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 4th-T (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 7th-T (8th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>Despite losing long time ace Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, the Choppers maintained their status as having one of the best rotations in the league.\u00a0 They will roll it back with the exact same group this year, headlined by Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer who finished first and second in the Cy Young voting a year ago.\u00a0 Brandon Woodruff is a pretty solid third fiddle as well.\u00a0 Add in the return of Chris Sale in a few months and you should be looking at one of the best rotations in the league.\u00a0 It is difficult to decipher what the Choppers might get out of the bullpen though.\u00a0 Craig Kimbrel is the only certain closer, but he&#8217;s coming off two straight poor seasons.\u00a0 Jordan Hicks and Emmanuel Clase have great arms, but neither pitched in 2020.\u00a0 Overall, the Choppers should be among the leading teams in pitching points.\u00a0 It&#8217;s with the bats that these projections don&#8217;t paint a rosy picture.\u00a0 But I think it is worth pointing out that this methodology doesn&#8217;t favor teams with the Choppers current roster construction.\u00a0 They have three catchers, giving that position a greater piece of the total offensive projection compared to most teams, diluting the overall numbers.\u00a0 But even with that said, they don&#8217;t have any hitters with eye-popping projected numbers.\u00a0 Pete Alonso is a good bet to be their top offensive producer.\u00a0 Two other sluggers that are slated to be big contributors are Franmil Reyes and Joey Gallo.\u00a0 Gallo is a polarizing player due to being a batting average drain, but he can carry a team in the power categories.\u00a0 The Choppers used their first two draft picks on keystone corner youngsters Ke&#8217;Bryan Hayes and Alec Bohm.\u00a0 Both could be a big part of an offensive resurgence for this team, should that come to be.\u00a0 Following two straight seasons of disappointing production at the plate, the Choppers are hoping to end that streak this year.\u00a0 If they do, the pitching staff will certainly be up to the task of making this a much better campaign for this franchise.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Kelly&#8217;s Cougars<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2020 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 8th (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 9th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 8th (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 9th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 8th (1st)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 6th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 7th (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 5th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 3rd (3rd-T)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211;\u00a03rd (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 9th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 6th (8th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 7th-T (5th-T)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>This seems like an extremely pessimistic forecast for a team that finished in the top half of the standings a year ago.\u00a0 Particularly glaring is the projection of the Cougars having the second worst offense in the league following a year in which they were second best.\u00a0 Granted, they spent most of their draft capital on pitchers, taking just two position players in the first seven rounds.\u00a0 However, there was a good reason for that.\u00a0 They had an outstanding offense a year ago.\u00a0 Perhaps it is unsurprising that reigning co-MVP Jose Abreu is expected to take a step back.\u00a0 But shortstops Trevor Story and Gleyber Torres are just starting to hit their primes.\u00a0 The third base duo of Eugenio Suarez and Kris Bryan\u00a0would seem to be strong bounceback candidates, at least in terms of batting average.\u00a0 The outfield lacks superstars, but Anthony Santander was a nice addition to AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and veterans Charlie Blackmon and Tommy Pham.\u00a0 The Cougars feature a solid veteran catching combo of Salvador Perez and Yadier Molina.\u00a0 Perhaps the Cougars will be penalized for not making major additions to the lineup, but this sure doesn&#8217;t look like one of the league&#8217;s worst offenses.\u00a0 The pitching projections actually show some improvement.\u00a0 First round pick Corbin Burnes joins Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell and Sonny Gray to make up a potentially outstanding rotation.\u00a0 What was a major weakness for them last year now looks like a strength.\u00a0 The bullpen is pretty solid as well.\u00a0 But the third place ranking in saves may be a tad optimistic with Nick Anderson likely to miss several months.\u00a0 Fortunately, they did add one of the best available closers in the draft in Ryan Pressly.\u00a0 The Cougars success this season will probably ride on the offense being more similar to the &#8217;20 squad than these numbers suggest.\u00a0 An improved pitching staff could make them very dangerous if that happens.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Kat&#8217;s Komodos<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2020 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 3rd (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 6th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 4th (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 7th (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 3rd (5th)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 10th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 8th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 8th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 8th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211; 9th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 3rd-T (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 9th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 7th-T (10th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>While nobody is going to get too excited about a seventh place projected ranking, there are some very positive signs in these numbers for the Komodos.\u00a0 The batting projections would mark significant improvement over last year&#8217;s squad and the pitching totals are up a little bit as well.\u00a0 First overall draft pick Luis Robert was potentially the most impactful addition any team made this offseason.\u00a0 He carries a 30 home run, 25 stolen base projection for this season.\u00a0 But he&#8217;s not the only Komodos hitter with significant power and speed potential.\u00a0 Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger and Starling Marte also fall into that category.\u00a0 Ramirez finished second in the league in batting PAR in 2020 and is expected to finish in the top five again this season.\u00a0 Another elite hitter for the Komodos is shortstop Corey Seager.\u00a0 And then there are a couple of slugger, DH-types:\u00a0 the ageless Nelson Cruz and last year&#8217;s first round pick Yordan Alvarez.\u00a0 Alvarez could be a huge X-factor after missing almost the entirety of his DTBL rookie campaign due to injury.\u00a0 Alvarez and Robert essentially give the Komodos two early first round additions to their lineup.\u00a0 The pitching staff was a major problem last year, finishing in last place in four of the five pitching categories and only bettering one team in saves.\u00a0 Walker Buehler remains the clear cut staff ace.\u00a0 But he&#8217;s going to need a little more help from his friends this year.\u00a0 Dylan Bundy is likely to be the next best holdover and Zach Plesac is the most compelling addition to the staff.\u00a0 They will also feature a trio of crafty lefties:\u00a0 Dallas Keuchel, Marco Gonzales and J.A. Happ.\u00a0 Aroldis Chapman is the headliner of a much improved bullpen.\u00a0 Greg Holland and Mark Melancon could be solid save accumulators and Devin Williams and his filthy stuff will make up for a lack of saves by providing an abundance of strikeouts.\u00a0 While last year was a season to forget for the Komodos, it may have paid significant dividends by allowing them to add Robert.\u00a0 With a potentially very strong offense, 2021 should be a much better year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Embed from Getty Images Welcome to the 2021 DTBL season preview series.\u00a0 As customary, I will be previewing each of the ten teams using a projection system to spit out some numbers that I will use to predict the final standings for the league and help identify the general strengths and weaknesses of each team.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,7,8,31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-beanballers","category-choppers","category-cougars","category-komodos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1380"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1383,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1380\/revisions\/1383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}