{"id":1479,"date":"2023-03-28T20:30:40","date_gmt":"2023-03-29T03:30:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=1479"},"modified":"2023-03-29T06:19:01","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T13:19:01","slug":"2023-season-preview-part-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=1479","title":{"rendered":"2023 Season Preview:  Part I"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a id=\"UXDfwfGSQx906dHX6R-M7A\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1429179780\" target=\"_blank\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\nwindow.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'UXDfwfGSQx906dHX6R-M7A',sig:'mpZVh5ABQk2eYJooVO09KueFfB3XjDwrGoZxSnEhDgc=',w:'594px',h:'393px',items:'1429179780',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><script src=\"\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\nWe&#8217;re just a couple days away from the start of the 2023 DTBL season, so it is probably about time I kick off the season preview series.\u00a0 At risk of undermining this whole process, I feel obligated to highlight just how poor of a job the 2022 preview series did of prognosticating what was to come.\u00a0 The 2022 projections had the Moonshiners finishing in ninth place.\u00a0 They won the league.\u00a0 They had the Mavericks edging out the Darkhorses for the league title.\u00a0 Those teams finished ninth and eighth respectively.\u00a0 After such a poor showing, I considered altering my methodology for this season.\u00a0 However, I ultimately decided against it because I&#8217;m not sure it would be worth the effort to make tweaks that may or may not actually help.\u00a0 This is really just an exercise to highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of each team entering the season.\u00a0 It couldn&#8217;t be clearer that almost any team could win this league in any given season if things go there way.<\/p>\n<p>So yeah, we&#8217;re keeping the process the same for 2023.\u00a0 Just a couple days prior to the start of the draft, I grabbed the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for this season.\u00a0 As a reminder, FanGraphs Depth Chart uses two other projection systems:\u00a0 ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts the numbers based on expected playing time for each MLB team.\u00a0 So what I do is take those Depth Charts projections for each player and add them to the appropriate team as the draft progresses.\u00a0 At the conclusion of the draft, I tally up the numbers for each team and scale them to 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched.\u00a0 All 28 players who are on each team&#8217;s roster at the conclusion of the draft are included, regardless of position distribution or expected major\/minor slot distributions.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t want to be in the business of projecting how teams are going to set their lineups.\u00a0 That said, including stats for all 28 players who will occupy just 23 slots could positively or negatively impact certain teams depending on how those extra spots are distributed.\u00a0 Just keep that in mind as we go along.\u00a0 Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that these projections were from early March.\u00a0 So major injuries that have occurred since then, like Edwin Diaz and Rhys Hoskins, are not reflected in these numbers even though those guys aren&#8217;t expected to play this season.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll point out these situations again in the individual team write-ups.\u00a0 Finally, at the conclusion of this series, I&#8217;ll post the full projected standings and team stat totals.<\/p>\n<p>We start with the two teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.\u00a0 Interestingly, no teams are projected for fewer than 43 points.\u00a0 So it wouldn&#8217;t take too much overachieving on these numbers for these squads to be in the hunt.\u00a0 And again, keep in mind the Moonshiners were part of this section last year.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Kelly&#8217;s Cougars<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2022 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 3rd (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 9th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 9th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 10th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 8th\u00a0(3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 6th (5th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 6th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 5th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 6th (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211; 5th (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 9th-T (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 5th (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 10th (6th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>2022 was a disappointing season for the Cougars offense.\u00a0 Ultimately, it was what kept them from contending for the title because the pitching staff was very good.\u00a0 These projections show a slight improvement to the offense, but the pitching numbers have dropped to the middle of the pack.\u00a0 Most of the players expected to fill everyday lineup spots are solid contributors.\u00a0 But there is a lack of eye-popping projections on the offensive side of things.\u00a0 Cedric Mullins is the only Cougars hitter with a projected batting PAR over 4.\u00a0 Next closest is newcomer Jake McCarthy who could be a sneaky great stolen base machine if given enough playing time.\u00a0 First round pick Bryan Reynolds will join them to lead the way in the outfield.\u00a0 Salvador Perez remains one of the best offensive catchers in the game and is joined by rookie Shea Langeliers to make an intriguing catching duo.\u00a0 The infield lacks star power, but has a good bounce back candidate in Ketel Marte and Jose Abreu moving to the cozy confines of Houston should get his power numbers back to normal.\u00a0 Perhaps what the Cougars need the most is a full, healthy season from Kris Bryant to see exactly what he can do in the thin air of Denver.\u00a0 The pitching staff is once again led by Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon, the latter of whom will need to get and then stay healthy to match his great &#8217;22 numbers.\u00a0 A return to form for Lucas Giolito would go a long way towards keeping the Cougars among the league&#8217;s top pitching staffs.\u00a0 The bullpen should be decent with Ryan Pressly and Scott Barlow firmly entrenched as closers and Seranthony Dominguez, Kendall Graveman and Evan Phillips in the mix for saves and other high leverage work as well.\u00a0 The Cougars have been stuck in the middle of the standings for the past half decade.\u00a0 Falling to last place is certainly not how they want to end that streak.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Dan&#8217;s Diamond Dogs<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2022 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 5th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 4th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 6th (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 5th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211;\u00a07th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 9th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 7th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 10th (8th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211;\u00a01st (7th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211; 10th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 5th-T (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 9th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 9th (10th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not sure I would call a last place finish a success, but the Diamond Dogs did exceed their &#8217;22 projection by a point and weren&#8217;t nearly as far behind the pack as expected in their inaugural season.\u00a0 One could argue positioning themselves to draft Julio Rodriguez with the first pick in the draft was not the worst thing in the world either.\u00a0 Rodriguez joins an offense that is as star studded as almost any team in the league.\u00a0 The rest of those stars are on the infield though.\u00a0 The outfield was a bit barren before Rodriguez&#8217;s arrival.\u00a0 His new Mariners teammate Teoscar Hernandez is the next best of the bunch.\u00a0 The infield is loaded, particularly on the left side.\u00a0 The shortstop trio of Trea Turner, Bo Bichette and Oneil Cruz is an embarrassment of riches.\u00a0 Nolan Arenado at third base is a MVP candidate in his own right.\u00a0 Gleyber Torres will be asked to fill in for Brendan Rodgers who will miss a good chunk of the season.\u00a0 Behind the dish, Travis d&#8217;Arnaud and Danny Jansen are both above average players, but are stuck in time shares with other good catchers for their respective MLB clubs.\u00a0 In total, the Dogs should have no trouble exceeding their batting point total from last season.\u00a0 The pitching staff is a bit of a work in progress as they wait for Shane Baz and John Means to return from Tommy John surgery.\u00a0 Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is head and shoulders above the rest of the staff.\u00a0 Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon and Charlie Morton give them some steady veteran arms to hold things together though.\u00a0 The bullpen is probably the strength of the team heading into the season, which is interesting considering they finished near the bottom in saves a year ago.\u00a0 Holdover Josh Hader is joined by second round pick Ryan Helsley and a couple later round picks in Daniel Bard and Jose Leclerc, all of whom are currently projected to lead their teams in saves.\u00a0 Slowly but surely, the Diamond Dogs are building a solid team.\u00a0 Ideally, they will take a step forward this season and not pick first in the draft again next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Embed from Getty Images We&#8217;re just a couple days away from the start of the 2023 DTBL season, so it is probably about time I kick off the season preview series.\u00a0 At risk of undermining this whole process, I feel obligated to highlight just how poor of a job the 2022 preview series did of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cougars","category-diamond-dogs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1479"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1483,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479\/revisions\/1483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}