{"id":1530,"date":"2024-03-23T10:45:32","date_gmt":"2024-03-23T17:45:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=1530"},"modified":"2024-03-23T14:28:25","modified_gmt":"2024-03-23T21:28:25","slug":"2024-season-preview-part-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=1530","title":{"rendered":"2024 Season Preview:  Part I"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a id=\"oJWZMxk1T9JzwnYhNELjBA\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1754704579\" target=\"_blank\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\nwindow.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'oJWZMxk1T9JzwnYhNELjBA',sig:'iJBM0ZviASTmp0lyq--BMQ-xYDOgKTUULjdcwrmXEyg=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1754704579',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><script src=\"\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\nWith the two Dodgers\/Padres games in Korea earlier this week, the 2024 MLB season is officially underway.\u00a0 The other 28 teams won&#8217;t start their campaigns until next Thursday though.\u00a0 So it is certainly not too late to preview the upcoming season.\u00a0 As usual, I will be doing so with the help of projection systems.\u00a0 I have computed the projected league standings using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/projections?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;type=zipsdc\">FanGraphs&#8217; Depth Chart projections<\/a>, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team&#8217;s depth chart.<\/p>\n<p>On my end, I incorporate the numbers for all 28 players who were on each DTBL team&#8217;s roster at the conclusion of the draft and then scale to a total of 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched to approximate a full season usage of healthy players.\u00a0 This means that every player on the roster is equally considered (assuming similar PA or IP projections) even if they are not likely to be on the active roster for the full season.\u00a0 I do not want to be making any assumptions about other team&#8217;s roster construction.\u00a0 These player projections were grabbed from FanGraphs shortly before our draft began.\u00a0 I then updated each team&#8217;s totals as the draft progressed to save time at the end.\u00a0 This means I&#8217;m missing some developments over the past few weeks such as injuries and late free agent signings.\u00a0 Note that the players who were unsigned free agents *do* have stat projections here, just that they were not adjusted to fit into their new team&#8217;s depth chart.\u00a0 In the team write-ups, I will mention any recent developments that may have changed the projections if fresh data had been used.<\/p>\n<p>Now on to this year&#8217;s projections.\u00a0 As I&#8217;m sure you have become well aware, these shouldn&#8217;t be taken too seriously as an accurate prediction of what is to come.\u00a0 Last year&#8217;s projected standings had the eventual champion Demigods finishing eighth, for example.\u00a0 These are best used to highlight each team&#8217;s strengths and weaknesses heading into the season.\u00a0 As usual, I&#8217;m chopping this into four parts, trying to keep teams that are expected to finish near each other in total points in the same article.\u00a0 I&#8217;m going to start with just two teams today because the clustered projections are mostly at the top half of the standings this year.\u00a0 Jay will probably be amused by this particular segment because the two teams covered here are the exact two he called out in our email chain a couple weeks ago.\u00a0 These are two original franchises who are experiencing decades long title droughts.\u00a0 Perhaps they should be comforted by the last two champions being teams that had their own decades long droughts before winning their first league titles.\u00a0 Here are the teams projected to finish in the bottom two spots of the standings.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Kelly&#8217;s Cougars<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2023 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 7th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 8th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 8th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 10th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 10th\u00a0(8th)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 9th (4th)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 8th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 10th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 10th (7th)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211; 8th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 10th (10th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 10th (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 10th (9th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>This is the second straight year that the Cougars have been slotted in the last spot in our projected standings.\u00a0 Last year, they were able to avoid actually finishing in that spot thanks to a very solid pitching staff.\u00a0 Unfortunately, these numbers show them continuing to have the league&#8217;s worst offense, but also with a huge drop in pitching.\u00a0 They did attempt to fix the offense that finished in last place in every category except for stolen bases a year ago.\u00a0 Their first two draft picks, outfielder Nolan Jones and shortstop Matt McLain actually have the two highest Batting PAR projections on the roster.\u00a0 The problem is pedestrian projections for pretty much all of the returning hitters.\u00a0 Infielders Ketel Marte and Ha-Seong Kim were two of their few offensive bright spots in &#8217;23.\u00a0 They are projected to take a bit of a step back this year, though they should continue to be solid contributors.\u00a0 McLain gives them another nice boost of power and speed to the middle infield.\u00a0 Unfortunately, he will begin the season on the IL with a shoulder injury.\u00a0 Catching and corner infield are clear weak spots, led by past their prime players like Salvador Perez, Josh Bell and Justin Turner.\u00a0 The outfield lacks star power, but the arrival of Nolan Jones should improve the unit as a whole.\u00a0 Another newcomer to the outfield is Masataka Yoshida.\u00a0 The tepid pitching projections are a bit surprising because this looks like a solid group.\u00a0 Their top four guys from last year:\u00a0 Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery, are all coming off excellent seasons and there is no reason to think they can&#8217;t do it again.\u00a0 Montgomery needs to sign with a MLB club first though.\u00a0 The projection systems don&#8217;t love Kelly or Montgomery, which dampens the team totals.\u00a0 The bullpen took a major blow when Josh Hader signed with the Astros, moving Cougars closing stalwart Ryan Pressly to a much less useful setup role.\u00a0 Evan Phillips and Alex Lange will be counted upon to carry the saves category.\u00a0 The path for the Cougars to smash these projections is having their pitching staff repeat what they did a year ago and have the offense inch its way towards respectability.\u00a0 They are looking for their first top half of the standings finish since 2020.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Charlie&#8217;s Thunder Choppers<\/h2>\n<p>Category &#8211; Projected Rank (2023 Rank)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Batting Average &#8211; 8th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Home Runs &#8211; 10th (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Batted In &#8211; 10th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Runs Scored &#8211; 8th (6th)<\/li>\n<li>Stolen Bases &#8211; 4th (5th)<\/li>\n<li>Earned Run Average &#8211; 7th (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>WHIP Ratio &#8211; 9th (8th)<\/li>\n<li>Wins &#8211; 8th (5th-T)<\/li>\n<li>Saves &#8211; 8th (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Strike Outs &#8211; 4th (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Batting Points &#8211; 9th (9th)<\/li>\n<li>Total Pitching Points &#8211; 8th (2nd-T)<\/li>\n<li>Total Points &#8211; 9th (6th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<p>The Choppers projections are very similar, but slightly better than the Cougars.\u00a0 Once again, they show a team that remains weak offensively, but also showing a pitching staff taking a major step backwards from a year ago.\u00a0 Short term, the Choppers biggest problem is that almost all of the pitchers they drafted to keep that staff going strong are currently dealing with injuries.\u00a0 First round draft pick Eury Perez, fourth rounder Gavin Williams and eighth rounder Taj Bradley will all open the season on the shelf.\u00a0 There is some good news for the pitching staff though.\u00a0 Blake Snell finally found a new home this week, signing with San Francisco.\u00a0 Unclear when he will make his debut, but the Choppers should have the reigning NL Cy Young winner anchoring their rotation again soon.\u00a0 Dylan Cease getting traded to the Padres is probably a positive development for the Choppers rotation as well.\u00a0 Logan Gilbert joins Snell and Cease to give the Choppers a staff with a ton of upside.\u00a0 Now if they could just get a couple of those newcomers healthy.\u00a0 Another bit of upside for the pitching staff is that it appears A.J. Puk\u00a0and Jordan Hicks will give them a couple extra starters out of relief spots.\u00a0 My projection system does not give them credit for this since all team totals are scaled to identical innings numbers.\u00a0 The two actual relievers, Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano, are among the league&#8217;s best closers.\u00a0 So this quartet could be a major reason why the Choppers exceed expectations on the pitching side.\u00a0 There are only five players projected to hit at least 40 home runs this season and two of them play for the Choppers:\u00a0 Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber.\u00a0 That makes their last place projection in the power categories a bit surprising.\u00a0 Alonso is joined by Triston Cases to give them a nice power combo at first base.\u00a0 There is some major upside in the rest of their infield too.\u00a0 Ke&#8217;Bryan Hayes started to break out in the second half last year, as did shortstop C.J. Abrams.\u00a0 Nico Hoerner has quietly become a fantasy star mixing decent power with a ton of steals and a good average.\u00a0 If one of their other young infielders, Vaughn Grissom and Zack Gelof, takes another step forward, this could be an excellent infield.\u00a0 The outfield is where they fall a bit short compared to most teams in the power categories.\u00a0 Kyle Schwarber being the exception, of course.\u00a0 Second round pick Evan Carter is an intriguing addition to this group.\u00a0 Finally, the offense should benefit from another year of elite catcher Adley Rutschman.\u00a0 There is plenty of potential on this roster.\u00a0 But the first step will be to get some of their pitchers healthy so they can make a run in this 25th anniversary season of their last DTBL title.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Embed from Getty Images With the two Dodgers\/Padres games in Korea earlier this week, the 2024 MLB season is officially underway.\u00a0 The other 28 teams won&#8217;t start their campaigns until next Thursday though.\u00a0 So it is certainly not too late to preview the upcoming season.\u00a0 As usual, I will be doing so with the help [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-choppers","category-cougars"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1530"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1533,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions\/1533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}