{"id":612,"date":"2014-03-23T21:09:33","date_gmt":"2014-03-24T04:09:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=612"},"modified":"2014-03-23T21:09:33","modified_gmt":"2014-03-24T04:09:33","slug":"2014-season-preview-part-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dreamteambaseball.com\/blog\/?p=612","title":{"rendered":"2014 Season Preview: Part I"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Choppers pitcher Chris Sale<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For the third straight year, we’re going to preview the upcoming DTBL season by using player stat projections to determine the projected order of finish. \u00a0These are NOT my personal predictions, so don’t hold it against me if I have your team projected much lower than you expect. \u00a0For a primer, I recommend reading the first part of last year’s preview<\/a>, where I explained the methodology for the projections. \u00a0I did it exactly the same way this year. \u00a0ZiPS projections were used for all categories, except for saves, where Steamer projections were utilized instead.<\/p>\n

Here’s the cliff-notes version. \u00a0I used the projected stats for all players on each DTBL teams roster (post-draft) to compute team totals in all ten categories. \u00a0Because I don’t want to make any guesses on how you plan on utilizing your extra players, all 28 players are included, even those who you may plan on keeping in the minors all year. \u00a0Actually, that’s not quite true. \u00a0I decided to exclude the handful of pitchers who have recently undergone Tommy John surgery. \u00a0I didn’t think it made much sense to include players who probably won’t play this year.<\/p>\n

Multipliers were used to normalize the stats so that the totals are based on approximately 14 full seasons from hitters and 9 from pitchers. \u00a0So, while your bench players are included in the projections, the team totals are adjusted depending on how many hitters or pitchers are on your roster. \u00a0It should be pointed out that my method does unnecessarily penalize teams who plan to use an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitcher’s slot. \u00a0Those teams should be expected to exceed the projected totals in wins and strikeouts since they are likely to exceed the IP totals of the rest of the teams. \u00a0So keep that in mind.<\/p>\n

If you are wondering if these projections are even remotely worthwhile, keep in mind that last year’s projections turned out to be quite accurate. \u00a0They correctly predicted the top two teams, albeit in the wrong order. \u00a0They also identified the Cougars as the team that would take a big step forward, which they did, as well as the Moonshiners going in the opposite direction. \u00a0Eight of the ten teams finished within two spots of their predicted slot. \u00a0By no means am I suggesting that the teams at the bottom of these projections should give up before the season starts. \u00a0But this should give you a pretty good idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into the season. \u00a0I will try to point out instances where I don’t trust the projections for certain teams though.<\/p>\n

On to part one of our season preview. \u00a0These are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings. \u00a0We’ll start at the very bottom and work our way up.<\/p>\n

Mike’s Moonshiners<\/h2>\n

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)<\/p>\n