2022 PAR update

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2022 PAR update

Postby Kevin » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:57 pm

I have completed the update to all players' 2022 PAR values. As a reminder, this post-season update is done to include the recently completed season's numbers in the PAR formula, replacing the oldest of the five seasons worth of data that is used as the historical baseline. Throughout this season, this baseline included data from 2016-2019 and 2021 (the 60 game 2020 season is thrown out). So this update replaced 2016 with the leaguewide 2022 totals. Comparing 2016 to 2022, the offensive numbers were dramatically lower across the board. On the pitching side, ERA and WHIP were lower in 2022, but this was offset by wins and saves also being down significantly across the league.

The end result is that this update significantly lowered the bar to clear for replacement level offensive performances while little changed on the pitching side. Almost all hitters received a boost to their PAR total. For guys who were on the major league roster for the entire season, this came out to about a 1/4 point increase for almost everybody. The league total Batting PAR increased by a whopping 50 points. I am certain this is the largest league total increase ever for this post-season update. Despite that, the league Batting PAR is *still* at a historic (excluding '20) low 85 points. In a completely consistent statistical environment, you would expect a league total of 225 batting and pitching PAR. On the pitching side, players did receive modest bumps or drops. But cumulatively, the league Pitching PAR total barely moved: increasing by 1 point. So the end result was almost exactly what I was expecting.

On an individual player level, not too much sticks out to me. Unlike last year, there wasn't a major shakeup in the batting or pitching PAR rankings. Interestingly, Aaron Judge was one of the few hitters who saw his PAR decrease (by 0.4 points). That is interesting because I imagine if I were to run these calculations using *only* 2022 data, his PAR would absolutely skyrocket because he was such an outlier in a very low offensive output environment. Despite this slight decrease, he still blows away the rest of the league by almost 5 points. And his 12.2 PAR remains a single season Batting PAR record in seasons that have been calculated (2005-present). Justin Verlander (14.8) and Sandy Alcantara (12.5) remain the top two in Pitching PAR as each increased by 0.4 points. Most of the top pitchers got a boost from this update while the pitchers who had rough seasons took a hit downwards.
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