2024 PAR update

[Kevin]

A heads up that I completed the post-season PAR update last night to incorporate 2024 league-wide stats into the formula and then re-ran the '24 PAR totals for individual players.

For hitters, most players saw their PAR drop a bit, particularly among guys who racked up significant steal totals. Even with this adjustment though, stolen bases are still WAY overvalued right now in the PAR formula. This is because the five year sample that makes up the baseline for this stat still contains a majority of seasons that were before the recent surge in stolen bases following the '23 rule changes. Of the cumulative 204 Batting PAR in the league this season, 40% of it was built off of stolen base totals. Ideally, this should be around 20%. Assuming there isn't another drastic swing in stolen base totals the next couple years, this should level off eventually. In the meantime though, you may want to chop off a bit of the PAR totals for speedsters when comparing them to non-runners if you want to get a better idea of players' relative value in the current environment.

The pitching updates were far less significant. Across the league, the Pitching PAR total increased by less than a point. Unlike the hitting side, the individual categories are fairly well balanced right now for pitchers, with a small exception for strikeouts being slightly undervalued.