DTBL News

Author: Kevin

  • 2018 DTBL All-Stars

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    The 25th Annual DTBL All-Star Game will take place at Kings Park, home of Kevin’s Kings, at a date and time to be determined.  As the defending champion, Marc will be the official manager for the National Division while Nick will call the shots for the American Division.  The National Division will look to win their third straight mid-summer classic.

    Much like the MLB All-Star rosters, the top-end talent seems to be tilted towards a particular team.  But unlike MLB, that would be the National squad in the DTBL.  That’s not terribly surprising when you take a look at the standings.  National Division teams currently occupy the top four positions.  The American Division roster features four starters and nine total players who weren’t even selected for the MLB All-Star Game (so far).  Meanwhile, here is an impressive list of National Division players who did not make this team:  Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Jacob deGrom and Jose Berrios.  That’s not to say there weren’t any good players who missed the American roster.  Jon Lester and James Paxton certainly would have been worthy selections.

    There are an impressive 20 first time All-Stars this year, 10 per team.  Without further ado, here are the 2018 DTBL All-Stars.

     

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Luis Severino, Jackalope (1st All-Star appearance)
    • Catcher – Wilson Ramos, Choppers (2nd)
    • First Base – Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope (6th)
    • Second Base – Whit Merrifield, Choppers (1st)
    • Third Base – Jose Ramirez, Komodos (1st)
    • Shortstop – Jean Segura, Komodos (2nd)
    • Outfield – Eddie Rosario, Komodos (1st)
    • Outfield – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope (5th)
    • Outfield – Nelson Cruz, Komodos (5th)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Gary Sanchez, Jackalope (2nd)
    • Third Base – Nolan Arenado, Naturals (4th)
    • Shortstop – Trea Turner, Naturals (2nd)
    • Shortstop – Tim Anderson, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Outfield – Starling Marte, Komodos (3rd)
    • Outfield – Mitch Haniger, Jackalope (1st)
    • Pitcher – Gerrit Cole, Jackalope (2nd)
    • Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers (7th)
    • Pitcher – Trevor Bauer, Choppers (1st)
    • Pitcher – Charlie Morton, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Aroldis Chapman, Komodos (4th)
    • Relief Pitcher – Edwin Diaz, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Craig Kimbrel, Choppers (6th)
    • Relief Pitcher – Josh Hader, Naturals (1st)

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Corey Kluber, Demigods (2nd)
    • Catcher – Evan Gattis, Kings (3rd)
    • First Base – Freddie Freeman, Demigods (3rd)
    • Second Base – Ozzie Albies, Mavericks (1st)
    • Third Base – Manny Machado, Mavericks (3rd)
    • Shortstop – Javier Baez, Mavericks (1st)
    • Outfield – Mookie Betts, Kings (2nd)
    • Outfield – Aaron Judge, Mavericks (2nd)
    • Outfield – Mike Trout, Mavericks (7th)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – J.T. Realmuto, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Second Base – Jose Altuve, Demigods (5th)
    • Third Base – Alex Bregman, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Shortstop – Francisco Lindor, Demigods (1st)
    • Outfield – Andrew Benintendi, Mavericks (1st)
    • Outfield – J.D. Martinez, Demigods (2nd)
    • Pitcher – Max Scherzer, Kings (5th)
    • Pitcher – Blake Snell, Cougars (1st)
    • Pitcher – Justin Verlander, Kings (5th)
    • Pitcher – Aaron Nola, Demigods (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Brad Hand, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Kenley Jansen, Mavericks (5th)
    • Relief Pitcher – Blake Treinen, Cougars (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Sean Doolittle, Kings (2nd)

    All-Stars per team:

    • 7 – Mavericks
    • 6 – Demigods, Jackalope, Komodos
    • 5 – Choppers, Kings
    • 3 – Darkhorses, Moonshiners, Naturals
    • 2 – Cougars

    Interestingly enough, the 23rd players selected by the managers were both middle infielders:  Tim Anderson and Jose Altuve.  This makes sense since an unusually high percentage of the extra “DH” votes were cast for middle infielders this year.  One very unusual voting oddity is that five National Division outfielders were unanimous selections.  So Marc and to pick three of those five to be the starters.  Obviously, no bad choices in that group.  Mike Trout and Chris Sale are both making their 7th DTBL All-Star Game appearances.  Trout has never NOT made the team and Sale only missed out his rookie year when he was toiling in the bullpen.  Here are the full voting results.  More All-Star Game coverage coming soon.

  • Mid-Season Mash-up

    Embed from Getty Images We've moved into the second half of the baseball season.  There is a lot going on right now, so I'm going to breeze through several topics in this post.  Thanks to everyone for voting for this year's All-Stars.  The managers for this year's All-Star Game, Marc and Nick, have been tasked with breaking a few ties and selecting the final players for their respective rosters.  Soon after they do that, I will announce the 2018 DTBL All-Star rosters.  This year will mark the 25th annual DTBL All-Star Game.  As you may recall, there was no All-Star Game in the first DTBL season.  But some representation of the Mid-Summer Classic has been played every year since.

    Speaking of 25th Anniversaries, we are just about a month away from the DTBL 25th Anniversary party in Chicago.  In case you didn't pay attention to any of the email traffic from previous months, many of us will be meeting up for the Indians @ White Sox game on Saturday, August 11.  I've already obtained tickets for everyone who previously said they would be able to make it.  But even if that doesn't include you, you are more than welcome to join us!  I bought a couple extra tickets and can easily obtain more, if necessary.  We are going to have a small tailgate outside the stadium, but will be heading into the park relatively early to make sure we get the Jim Thome bobbleheads that they are giving away that evening.  Please contact me if you would like more information.  Looking forward to it!

    Somewhere around that 25th Anniversary gathering, probably soon after, I am going to be announcing an all-time DTBL team.  It will be my version of the 25 greatest players in league history.  Since I prefer to make mostly objective selections, I'm working on a statistical formula to determine this roster.  It will be somewhat based on PAR, but not exclusively.  However, to that end, I'm hoping to get as many seasons as possible of PAR numbers completed in the next month.  Just this past week, I added numbers for 2006.  A few takeaways from these numbers.  First, Johan Santana was very much deserving of the Cy Young award he won unanimously that season.  The Mavericks' lefty accumulated a 14.27 PAR, which was nearly five points higher than the next closest pitcher.  It marks as the highest pre-2010 single season Pitching PAR I've calculated so far.  Among hitters, there was far less separation at the top of the 2006 PAR leaderboard.  Albert Pujols was first at 9.16, but Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Howard were all within a point.  Howard edged out Pujols in the MVP vote that year, perhaps because of his gaudy 58 home runs, which had been the league's single season record among non-PED suspected players until Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 homers last year.  Reyes' 19 home runs in '06 is the most for any DTBL player with at least 60 steals as well.

    I am going to try go get PAR numbers completed back to 2003 in the next month.  The reason why 2003 will be my stopping point is because I don't have complete transaction records readily accessible prior to that, which are necessary for me to calculate the number of weeks each player was on a major league roster.  This is the big pain point in completing these PAR calculations.

    On to the weekly and monthly award winners for June 2018.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/4 - 6/10) - Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope Week 12 (6/11 - 6/17) - Evan Gattis, Kings Week 13 (6/18 - 6/24) - Nolan Arenado, Naturals Week 14 (6/25 - 7/1) - Alex Bregman, Darkhorses

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/4 - 6/10) - Corey Kluber, Demigods Week 12 (6/11 - 6/17) - Luis Severino, Jackalope Week 13 (6/18 - 6/24) - Trevor Bauer, Choppers Week 14 (6/25 - 7/1) - Blake Snell, Cougars

    Semi-spoiler alert:  you are going to see almost all of the names above when the DTBL All-Star rosters are announced this week.  These guys not only had great weeks at some point in June, but are putting up All-Star caliber numbers through the first half of the season.  We had a little more team diversity for these honors in June as only the Jackalope had multiple players earn weekly honors.

    Batter of the Month:

    Alex Bregman, Darkhorses .306 AVG, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 1 SB, 3.00 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Chris Sale, Choppers 1.76 ERA, 0.756 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 60 K, 3.43 PAR

    Half way through his second DTBL season, Bregman has already almost matched his rookie season numbers.  In fact, he has already set a career high in home runs with 17.  11 of those came in his scorching month of June.  He tied for the league lead in both home runs and RBI in June.  The Darkhorses third baseman appears primed to receive his first DTBL All-Star invitation.  Bregman narrowly won this award over Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt who had very similar numbers across the board.  Komodos outfielders Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario were in the conversation as well.

    Sale will almost certainly receive his seventh straight All-Star nod this week.  If so, he will have been a DTBL All-Star in every season since becoming a full time starting pitcher for the White Sox in 2012.  He was at the peak of his powers in June, striking out 60 batters in just 41 innings.  He is one of four pitchers who have already accumulated over 8 PAR this season, barely beyond the half-way point in the season.  Sale was a comfortable winner of this award, but amazingly, the top three contenders were all Choppers, the other two being Trevor Bauer and Jon Lester.  Jackalope Luis Severino wasn't too far back either.

  • Pair of Kings

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    June is more than half over, so I suppose I should probably get around to announcing the DTBL May award winners.  Sorry for the ridiculous tardiness of this article.  There are a couple of reasons for the delay though.  First, I forgot to run my script to capture the monthly stats on the first of the month, so I had to come up with a slightly different way of computing the numbers for May.  But that didn’t take too long to do.  The main reason for the delay is because I’ve spent most of the past couple weeks watching and celebrating the Washington Capitals Stanley Cup championship.  As you may know, we don’t get an opportunity to celebrate sports championships very often here in the nation’s capital.  The Caps victory came at the expense of the Vegas Golden Knights, so I became accustomed to reading article headlines that were plays on gambling terms.  So, why not one more here?

    Not a whole lot has changed since last month’s article.  The Kings are sill in control at the top of the standings.  However, things started to look a little dicey for them a few weeks ago when a whole bunch of their outfielders got hurt at the same time.  They seem to have weathered that storm though, as they still hold a comfortable lead.  The Darkhorses and Demigods have been putting together solid seasons as well and currently sit in second and third places.  Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been absolutely decimated by pitching injuries, turning what has been their strength for many years into a considerable weakness.  They currently have the fewest pitching points in the league.

    The Kings have been chugging along thanks to spectacular numbers from some of their biggest stars.  In April, Kings ace Max Scherzer won Pitcher of the Month honors and still leads the league in pitching PAR well into the season’s third month.  But it is a teammate of his who was the league’s best pitcher in May.  And another teammate topped the May batting PAR leaderboard.  But before we get to that, here were the weekly award winners in May.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 6 (4/30 – 5/6) – Eddie Rosario, Komodos
    Week 7 (5/7 – 5/13) – Scooter Gennett, Demigods
    Week 8 (5/14 – 5/20) – Brandon Belt, Mavericks
    Week 9 (5/21 – 5/27) – Jose Altuve, Demigods
    Week 10 (5/28 – 6/3) – Edwin Encarnacion, Darkhorses

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 6 (4/30 – 5/6) – Gerrit Cole, Jackalope
    Week 7 (5/7 – 5/13) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
    Week 8 (5/14 – 5/20) – Lance McCullers, Kings
    Week 9 (5/21 – 5/27) – J.A. Happ, Komodos
    Week 10 (5/28 – 6/3) – Michael Wacha, Kings

    Well, that list of pitchers is pretty interesting for a couple reasons.  First, if you couldn’t tell, May was a pretty good month for Astros pitchers.  Three of them won weekly honors (Cole, Keuchel, McCullers), yet their pitcher who had the best month is not one of those three!  Secondly, if you couldn’t tell, May was a pretty good month for Kings pitchers.  Two of them won weekly honors (McCullers, Wacha), yet their pitcher who had the best month is not one of those two!  Yes, I’m talking about the same pitcher in both cases.  Here are the DTBL monthly award winners for May 2018.

    Batter of the Month:

    Mookie Betts, Kings
    .372 AVG, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 23 R, 10 SB, 3.65 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Justin Verlander, Kings
    0.86 ERA, 0.696 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 50 K, 3.67 PAR

    Using Baseball-Reference’s Play Index, I was only able to find two other monthly stat totals in DTBL history that were comparable to Betts’ five category stat line:  Mike Trout in July of 2012 and Ryan Klesko in May of 2001.  Had I tightened my search criteria to Betts’ exact stat line, he would have been the only result.  So Mookie had one of the best five category months in league history.  Unfortunately for him, he suffered an injury to his side at the beginning of June which shelved him for a bit, but he is back at it now and trails only Mike Trout in batting PAR for the season.  It is still relatively early, but right now, it looks like a two person race between those two for MVP honors.  A pair of Indians were Betts’ closest competition for this monthly award, however.  Komodos third baseman Jose Ramirez and Demigods shortstop Francisco Lindor also had great months of May.

    Verlander saw a bunch of Astros and Kings teammates win weekly honors in May, but he was clearly the league’s best pitcher in the month.  The modest win total (3) was all that kept him from blowing away everyone else for this award.  The Naturals’ James Paxton and the Kings’ Max Scherzer were in striking distance.  Scherzer and Verlander sit first and second in the league in pitching PAR, which goes a long way towards explaining why the Kings are crushing the rest of the league in pitching points.  They currently have at least a share of the lead in all five pitching categories.

  • Contact Problems

    Embed from Getty Images The first month of the 2018 baseball season is in the books. Early indications are that the recent surge of the three true outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts) is far from over. Perhaps most troubling is that MLB saw more strikeouts than hits in the first month of the season. That had never previously happened over a full month in the history of baseball. In our league, I don't keep track of hitters' strikeouts, so I am not certain if that was the case for DTBL hitters. But it definitely was for pitchers. Through Friday's games, DTBL pitchers have recorded 2,663 strikeouts compared to 2,059 hits allowed. To be clear, DTBL pitchers recording more strikeouts than hits allowed isn't new. It has happened over each of the past six full seasons. But the current K/H ratio of 1.29 would blow away last year's record high of 1.14. Because home run rates are still historically high, overall scoring in baseball is only slightly down from the last couple years and still higher than it was a few years back. But the current DTBL league batting average of .259 is eight points lower than the league's record full-season low of .267 (2015). Average tends to rise as the weather warms up though, so I'm not going to read into that too much. The big takeaway from the first month numbers is clearly the rise in strikeouts and drop in hits. Fewer balls in play tends to make for a less interesting game. So let's hope this trend doesn't continue much longer.

    In the DTBL, March/April was dominated by the Kings, who are looking to bounce back from an awful 2017 season.  They finished April with a double digit lead.  They held onto first place most of the month.  The Darkhorses and Mavericks are in pretty good shape as well.  Interestingly, it is the Mavericks' usually reliable pitching staff that has kept them from leading the league in the early stages of the season.

    As for the players, the leaderboards are topped by a lot of familiar names with a bunch of impressive rookies mixed in as well.  Below are the Players of the Week and Players of the Month for March/April.  Please note that the games from March were included in determining the April Player of the Month awards.  Also, there is going to be one extra set of weekly award winners as I did separate that season opening weekend (Thursday through Sunday) into its own week.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (3/29 - 4/1) - Adam Eaton, Kings Week 2 (4/2 - 4/8) - Didi Gregorius, Jackalope Week 3 (4/9 - 4/15) - Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope Week 4 (4/16 - 4/22) - Manny Machado, Mavericks Week 5 (4/23 - 4/29) - Gary Sanchez, Jackalope

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (3/29 - 4/1) - Jose Berrios, Darkhorses Week 2 (4/2 - 4/8) - Jameson Taillon, Cougars Week 3 (4/9 - 4/15) - Max Scherzer, Kings Week 4 (4/16 - 4/22) - Patrick Corbin, Darkhorses Week 5 (4/23 - 4/29) - Masahiro Tanaka, Choppers

    It was a good month for Jackalope hitters as three of them won weekly honors.  It was an up-and-down month for several of the players listed above, particularly the pitchers.  But at least two of them were strong throughout the month and are recipients of the Player of the Month awards.  As a reminder, these are not subjective choices on my part.  These are the players who accumulated the highest batting and pitching PAR for the month.  Again, "month" isn't entirely accurate in this case as the last few days of March were included as well.  Here are the award winners for April 2018.

    Batter of the Month:

    Didi Gregorius, Jackalope .327 AVG, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 2 SB, 2.55 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings 1.62 ERA, 0.821 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 57 K, 3.69 PAR

    Didi Gregorius had the unenviable task of replacing a legend at shortstop for the Yankees.  But since taking over for Derek Jeter in 2016, he has been nothing short of spectacular.  This year, it seems he may be reaching a new level though.  He finished April with 10 home runs.  His career high is 25, which he recorded last season.  The Jackalope nabbed Gregorius in the fourth round last year and have been rewarded handsomely ever since.  Gregorius edged out A.J. Pollock for this award.  Five of the top nine finishers were Mavericks, led by first round pick Ozzie Albies.

    Pitcher of the Month awards are nothing new for Max Scherzer.  This is the third time he has won it since I officially started tracking this in 2016:  (June '16, May '17).  At this point, I think it is safe to say that Scherzer is the most consistently dominant pitcher in baseball.  The two time reigning NL Cy Young award winner is the early leader for that award again this season.  His closest competition for this monthly award was his Kings teammate, Justin Verlander.  Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole had tremendous opening months as well.

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part IV

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    We’ve reached the final portion of the 2018 DTBL season preview.  Not surprisingly, the two teams projected to finish at the top of the standings are the same squads that occupied those spots most of last season as well.  In case you are curious, they were not projected to finish first or second in this series last spring.  Those spots belonged to the Kings and Choppers, who finished ninth and seventh respectively.  So being tabbed a pre-season favorite most certainly doesn’t guarantee success.  Having said that, it would be pretty surprising if these teams aren’t in the hunt again this year.  They both added some exciting young talent to already loaded rosters.  Not a whole lot separates these teams in the projections.  One point, to be exact.  One of them is projected to lead the league in pitching points.  Its probably not the team you expect.  Here are the top two DTBL Championship contenders.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (9th)
    • Wins – 2nd (7th)
    • Saves – 8th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
    • Total Points – 2nd (2nd-T)

    Summary:

    The overall projected ranking of the Naturals is about what one might have expected.  But the individual category rankings are pretty shocking.  Last year, the Naturals had the best offense in the league, but were ultimately unable to stick with the Mavericks because of a below average pitching staff.  In this year’s draft, they continued to add pieces to the offense while only selecting one starting pitcher in the first half of the draft (Garrett Richards).  Yet now they are projected to lead the league in pitching points, with the bulk of that staff being the same as the one that struggled a year ago.  The main reason for this is fairly obvious:  health.  Noah Syndergaard is the Naturals best pitcher, but threw just 30 innings a year ago.  David Price was also hurt much of the year and finished the season in the bullpen.  If those two are healthy all year, the Naturals are close to a lock to exceed their ’17 pitching numbers.  James Paxton and Carlos Carrasco carried the rotation last year and will be complementary pieces again this season.  Felipe Rivero joins Raisel Iglesias to give the Naturals two excellent closers.  I wouldn’t call the bullpen a strength, but it should be decent.  The batting projections are slightly concerning as they don’t like the Naturals chances of leading the league in batting points again this year.  But there are still some very high upside youngsters on this roster, including Yoan Moncada, Victor Robles and Lewis Brinson, who have all been among the top ranked prospects in baseball the past few years.  Nolan Arrenado is projected to be their top hitter again this year.  A healthy Trea Turner would be right up there too.  Joey Votto, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera and Marcell Ozuna are among their dependable veteran bats.  I think it is very likely the Naturals will exceed these offensive projections.  If they do, they might be the championship favorites.  At any rate, it would be surprising if they aren’t in a pennant race again this year.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 5th (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
    • Wins – 5th (1st-T)
    • Saves – 10th (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (7th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (1st)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    The defending champs appear to be well positioned to become the first DTBL team to repeat since the 2011 Darkhorses finished off their four-peat.  But this is not quite the same Mavericks team that won it all a year ago.  They still have an elite pitching staff, but may not be able to smoke the rest of the pack in most pitching categories again this year.  On the other hand, they won it all despite having a mediocre offense last year.  This squad looks much stronger with the bats, despite not being a priority in the draft outside of first round pick Ozzie Albies.  Mike Trout and Aaron Judge pretty much guarantee that the Mavericks offense won’t suck.  The Orioles infield duo of Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are also the Mavericks top infielders.  The outfield is in good hands with Trout, Judge, Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Mazara.  While the Mavericks aren’t expected to finish at the top of the league in any of the batting categories, they also don’t have an obvious weakness.  The pitching staff remains loaded.  Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish have been carrying the rotation for years, and are back to do it again this season.  Zack Godley is a nice addition as well.  Perhaps the most intriguing pitcher on the roster is Alex Reyes, who they drafted in the second round with a pick they received from the Komodos for Aroldis Chapman.  It isn’t clear what role Reyes will play when he returns from Tommy John surgery in May or June, but the latest word is that he will be a starter.  That would be a huge boost to the Mavericks win and strikeout potential.  The bullpen is full of power arms that may not accumulate a ton of saves, but will be a boon to the other four pitching categories.  Not included in these projections is Keone Kela, who they recently signed as a free agent and appears to be the choice to close games for the Rangers.  Also with Kenley Jansen, the Mavericks should have a decent shot of not finishing last in saves like these projections have them.  They may not demolish the rest of the league in ERA and WHIP as they have in recent years, but this still looks like it could be the best pitching staff in the league.  The Mavericks appear poised to finish in the top four of the league for the seventh straight season:  a remarkable run of sustained success.

    Below are the full 2018 projected standings.  As you can see, not a whole lot separates the Mavericks, Naturals and Kings at the top.  Past seasons have shown these projections to be compelling, but certainly not infallible.  Let’s see how it all plays out.  Welcome to the 26th Dream Team Baseball League season!

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part III

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    Opening Day is in the books.  Matt Davidson is on pace to hit 486 home runs this season.  That would be a record.  It is great to have baseball back in our lives.  This should be a fun opening weekend, paired with Easter celebrations.  There are four teams remaining in this DTBL preview series.  Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish in third and fourth places.  These particular teams have been among the most volatile squads in the league in recent years.  Both have won championships in the past three seasons and both have finished near the bottom of the league as well.  In fact, these were two of the three worst teams in the league just last season.  So things would appear to be trending up, if these projections prove accurate.  Unlike all of the previous six teams that I have covered, we have now reached the teams that appear to be at least average in both batting and pitching.  Here is a preview of a couple teams who figure to be in the championship hunt.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (6th)
    • Wins – 8th (9th)
    • Saves – 1st (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (3rd-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
    • Total Points – 4th (8th)

    Summary:

    After a season away, Jay is back in charge of the Jackalope.  While ’17 was a little disappointing for the Jackalope on the whole, they did exert their power, leading the league in home runs.  They are projected to repeat that this season, maintaining a strong offense supported by an improved pitching staff.  They focused heavily on rebuilding the pitching staff in the draft, selecting a pair of starting pitchers named Luis, Severino and Castillo, in the first two rounds.  Those two join Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole to make up a rotation that has the potential to be very good.  While the bullpen looks to be pretty good as well, I’m not sure I’m buying the first place in saves projection.  Mark Melancon’s health is a big concern.  Wade Davis is definitely the stud in the pen.  Kelvin Herrera and Blake Parker could be nice additions, but they come with questions as well.  Overall though, this does appear to be a much improved pitching staff.  The Jackalope remain powerful with the bats.  New Yankee and reigning DTBL MVP Giancarlo Stanton has the highest batting PAR projection in the league.  Paul Goldschmidt is in the top five as well.  Gary Sanchez is probably the best hitting catcher in the game right now.  Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon are near the top among third basemen as well.  An interesting addition to the slugging Jackalope is Rougned Odor.  If he can rebound from a pretty poor ’17 season, he’ll provide another big power boost to the Jackalope infield.  Outside of Stanton, the outfield is less impressive.  But on the whole, the Jackalope should have an above average offense.  With an improved pitching staff, the Jackalope should finish much higher in the standings than they have the past couple seasons, and a championship drive is a possibility as well.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (7th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
    • Wins – 7th (4th)
    • Saves – 6th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (4th-T)
    • Total Points – 3rd (9th)

    Summary:

    2017 was a disaster for the Kings.  They nearly pulled off the embarrassing feat of going from first to worst, narrowly finishing ahead of the Gators for ninth place.  Not to make too many excuses, but this team was completely decimated by injuries, especially to their hitters.  The talent from the ’16 championship squad is still mostly there, so it seems reasonable to expect better results this year, provided they have better luck on the health front.  The projections show massive improvement on the offensive side of things.  The Kings first three draft picks were all sluggers:  Rhys Hoskins, Matt Olson and Evan Gattis.  Gattis could be a particularly key addition, occupying a usually weak catcher slot while accumulating regular at bats as a DH for the Astros.  Mookie Betts and Carlos Correa remain the Kings two best offensive players, but Hoskins has the potential to be right up there with them.  Three outfielders who were hurt for significant portions of last season could be the key to the Kings success this year:  A.J. Pollock, Adam Eaton and Ian Desmond.  Pollock, in particular, is an elite fantasy player when healthy.  The Kings are projected to accumulate the most batting points in the league.  That may be a tad optimistic, but they certainly appear to be stronger than the ’17 version.  The pitching staff hasn’t changed much.  Max Scherzer is still the undisputed ace.  It will be interesting to see how Justin Verlander fares in a full season in Houston.  Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray and Lance McCullers are three relatively young pitchers who could be poised for breakout campaigns.  The bullpen might actually exceed these projections as 12th round pick Brad Boxberger was named the Diamondbacks closer to begin the season.  He joins Sean Doolittle, Arodys Vizcaino and Jeurys Familia to give the Kings four closers to start the season.  Nate Jones is waiting in the wings as well.  It is reasonable to think that ’17 was a blip on the radar for a team that has championship aspirations.  The Kings have a very good chance of being in the pennant race this season.

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images Happy Opening Day!  For the first time in recent history, all 30 teams were slated to start their seasons on the same day.  Unfortunately, weather has already cost us a pair of games today.  But we still have 13 games to look forward to this afternoon and evening.  Before the season officially launches, let's bang out a couple more of these 2018 DTBL team previews.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections, only 11 points separate the six teams expected to finish between fourth and ninth places, so there isn't too much of a difference between the pair of teams I'm previewing today and most of those I covered yesterday.  Also, it wouldn't be particularly surprising to see these teams in a pennant race this summer either.  The teams projected to finish in fifth and sixth place are somewhat opposites of each other.  One figures to have an elite hitting squad with questionable pitching while the other has one of the league's best pitching staffs supported by hitters with below average projections.  Here is a preview of two teams expected to finish in the middle of the standings.

    David's Darkhorses

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (1st)

    • Home Runs - 9th (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 8th (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (4th)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (10th)

    • Wins - 10th (10th)

    • Saves - 4th (5th)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th-T (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (8th)

    • Total Points - 6th (5th-T)

    Summary:

    The Darkhorses had a bit of an odd profile last year, particularly on the pitching side.  They finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins, yet were third in strikeouts.  They were the first team since 2012 to have an ERA over 4.00.  But the impressive strikeout totals indicated that there was some talent on the staff.  These projections still don't love the pitching.  A couple newcomers to the rotation, Jose Berrios and Aaron Sanchez, should fuel some optimism though.  Sanchez is particularly interesting coming off an injury riddled season.  He was the third overall pick in the draft just a year ago.  Jacob deGrom remains the ace of the staff and Carlos Martinez fits nicely into the #2 slot.  Brad Hand, Archie Bradley and Chris Devenski are newcomers to the bullpen, joining Corey Knebel to make up an impressive group of power arms.  They may not have elite save numbers, but these guys will help prop up the Darkhorses strikeout numbers.  The strength of the roster remains the offense.  The core of the lineup is essentially the same as last year.  Bryce Harper appears primed to have a MVP caliber season as he heads into free agency.  Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are now playing in homer friendly Milwaukee.  George Springer helps round out quite possibly the best outfield in the league.  The infield is pretty darn good too with Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Alex Bregman.  One key player who was a little disappointing a year ago is Xander Bogaerts.  Expect much better numbers from him this season.  The pieces are definitely in place for the Darkhorses to be a championship contender.  How much improvement they get out of their rotation will be the determining factor.

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 4th (7th)

    • Runs Batted In - 6th (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 9th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 8th (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (2nd)

    • Wins - 1st (3rd)

    • Saves - 3rd (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 9th (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Points - 5th (5th-T)

    Summary:

    According to these prognostications, no team looks more similar to the 2017 version of themselves than the Moonshiners.  Almost across the board, they are expected to finish close to where they were a year ago.  This means they once again have a below average hitting squad paired with one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  Brian Dozier and Khris Davis are the lone Moonshiners with batting PAR projections over 4.0.  They were their top two hitters a year ago as well.  But this doesn't mean improvements haven't been made.  All three of their top draft picks could give this offense a big boost:  Rafael Devers, Ian Happ and Paul DeJong.  Another guy to watch is Gregory Polanco who never really got on track last year after coming over in a trade with the Kings.  Jake Lamb and Miguel Sano make up a formidable duo at the keystone corner.  Batting average looks like the Moonshiners worst category.  They are slated to finish nearly 10 points behind the next worst team.  The pitching staff remains strong.  Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel and Jeff Samardzija all receive PAR projections over 4.0 and the fifth holdover, Kyle Hendricks, is perennially underrated.  Edwin Diaz, Roberto Osuna and Brandon Morrow give the Moonshiners three elite closers and a decent shot at leading the league in saves again this year.  This is as deep of a pitching staff as any in the league.  Last year was a nice step forward for the Moonshiners as they finished above seventh place for the first time since 2012.  They are no doubt setting their sights higher this season.  If their top hitting additions can outperform these projections, a reasonable possibility, they could be in the hunt for their first league championship.

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part I

    Embed from Getty Images Welcome to the 2018 DTBL season!  This will be our 26th season, but also a year-long celebration of our 25th Anniversary.  In case you forgot what happened in 2017 after a long winter, here's a quick summary:  the Mavericks dominated.  They led the league most of the season and won the championship by 11 1/2 points over the Cougars and Naturals.  After the Mavericks, very little separated the rest of the league.  The Cougars and Naturals had very good years, but it wouldn't have taken much more for any of the other teams to have been right up there with them in the standings.  So, how do things look heading into 2018?  I'm glad you asked.

    As has become an annual tradition, I am going to preview the upcoming season by using standings/stats projections to tell most of the story.  For the second straight year, I will be using FanGraph's Depth Charts projected stats of players to generate projections for each DTBL team.  These are a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections, with playing time adjustments done by the FanGraphs staff.  The reason I made the switch to Depth Charts last year is because I think it gives a more accurate guess at playing time so that players who are expected to play less than an every day role in the big leagues this year don't disproportionately affect these prognostications.

    Additionally, I have made one other change for this year.  In the past, I've scaled all the pitching stats so that the number of projected innings are the same for each team, no matter how many pitchers are on the roster.  For hitters, I have attempted to do the same, but rather than scaling to a certain at bat or plate appearance target, I would scale based on the number of hitters on the roster.  This year, I decided it would make more sense to do the same thing for hitters as pitchers.  So now the team totals in hitting categories will be scaled such that each team is projected to accumulate 8285 plate appearances.  I came up with this number by looking at the team totals in at bats the past five seasons and then applying the PA/AB ratio that has existed in MLB over that same time period, since I don't keep plate appearance data for DTBL teams.  I figured this would be more accurate than simply using at bats since some teams may be high on guys who walk a lot while others may have a bunch of free swingers.  So team plate appearances are more likely to be similar across the league than at bats.  Anyway, the main reason for this change is so that teams who have players projected to spend far less than full seasons on major league rosters don't kill the team's projections across the board.  For instance, Victor Robles is only projected for 90 plate appearances this season.  In the past, including his modest numbers in the Naturals projections would have really hurt the "per player" totals.  With this change, his numbers simply won't make up as significant of a percentage of the Naturals totals, which is logical since he probably won't be on their active roster much of the season.  So the end result, I think, is that these projections will do a better job of predicting which players will actually be on major league rosters for DTBL teams.  Having said that, I'm still not making any personal predictions about how much time each player will spend on the active roster.  Stats for all 28 players on the post-draft rosters are included in these projections.

    Anyway, let's get started.  As usual, I'm going to break this into four parts.  Normally, each of these posts previews two or three teams.  But you get a special treat to kick things off this year:  four teams!  The reason?  Three teams are projected to tie for 7th place.  So here are the four teams that the numbers say will be near the bottom of the standings.  Two of these four were among the top four finishers a year ago, so perhaps we could see some major shuffling in the standings, which of course winds up happening every year anyway.

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 8th (6th)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (5th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (2nd)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (5th)

    • Earned Run Average - 9th (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (7th)

    • Wins - 9th (8th)

    • Saves - 5th (3rd)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 9th (4th-T)

    • Total Points - 10th (2nd-T)

    Summary:

    We kick off the team previews with what is probably the most surprising result my spreadsheet spit out.  Last year, the Cougars tied for second place, which was their best finish in over 20 years.  These projections don't like their chances of duplicating that result.  One possible explanation for this dreary outlook is that the Cougars current roster consists of 13 pitchers, which is more than any other team and two more than most.  This means that a good chunk of their pitching totals are made up of numbers from pitchers who won't actually contribute this season and waters down the impact of the numbers from their best pitchers.  However, on that note, their best pitcher is clearly Madison Bumgarner who will spend the first month of the season on the DL with a broken finger.  Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon and Luke Weaver will look to pick up the slack.  The Cougars have a bunch of interesting young pitchers who they will be able to shuffle in and out of the rotation until they find the best combination.  I would heavily bet the over on the Cougars saves projection, which was also impacted by the sheer quantity of relief pitchers on the current roster.  They should be able to roll out four closers most of the season, so a finish near the top in saves seems likely.  The offensive projections are a little more worrisome for the Cougars.  Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant are elite players, but they are going to need a couple other guys to reach All-Star caliber levels this season.  Some candidates for that include first round pick Tommy Pham and last year's first overall pick, shortstop Trevor Story.  Story bouncing back from a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign might be the key to the Cougars season.  Somebody has to come in last in these prognostications.  It would be pretty surprising if the Cougars fell all the way to the bottom of the league in 2018 though.

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (9th)

    • Home Runs - 10th (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 10th (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 10th (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 1st (7th)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (4th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (3rd)

    • Wins - 4th (6th)

    • Saves - 2nd (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 4th (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 10th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (3rd)

    • Total Points - 7th-T (7th)

    Summary:

    After four straight seasons in the top half of the standings, the Choppers took a step backwards in 2017 and fell to seventh place.  Their strong pitching staff couldn't overcome an offense that finished dead last in batting points.  According to these projections, they could be in for a repeat of that again this season.  The Choppers attempted to improve their offense by drafting Whit Merrifield and Delino DeShields Jr and trading for Andrew McCutchen.  Clearly, this will be a speedier team in '18.  With regular playing time, DeShields could contend for the league lead in stolen bases.  But questions remain on where the power will come from.  Anthony Rizzo and Byron Buxton appear to be the best offensive players on the squad.  After those two though, the player with the next highest projected batting PAR is actually 10th round pick Randal Grichuk.  The pitching numbers are much more promising.  I'm not sure they will be able to lead the league in strikeouts again this year, but Chris Sale, Danny Duffy and Jon Lester form an impressive trio of left-handed starters.  Joining them this year will be Trevor Bauer, who had a sneaky impressive strikeout total a year ago.  The bullpen remains one of the best in the league, led by Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles.  It would be surprising if the Choppers don't have one of the better pitching staffs in the league this year.  But in order for them to return to the top half of the standings, they will need to be a better hitting team.

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (2nd)

    • Home Runs - 7th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (2nd)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (8th)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)

    • Wins - 6th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 7th (9th)

    • Strike Outs - 10th (8th)

    • Total Batting Points - 7th (3rd-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (6th)

    • Total Points - 7th-T (4th)

    Summary:

    Much like the Cougars, the Demigods are projected to take a tumble in the standings after finishing in fourth place a year ago.  Also like the Cougars, a possible explanation for the fall could be tied to their current roster construction.  In the Demigods case, four of the five extra players are hitters.  They continue to have a very deep roster of solid hitters.  Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez were two of the best players in the league last year and should be again this season.  Add in Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman and you have the makings of a team that doesn't look like the seventh best offense in the league, but that is what the projections are saying.  Perhaps some of their veterans could be declining a bit, like Buster Posey and Evan Longoria.  And it remains to be seen if Ryan Zimmerman can build on his '17 resurgence.  Overall though, this looks like a good hitting team.  Outside of Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, the pitching staff was a little disappointing last year though.  Aaron Nola and newcomer Alex Wood could blossom into stars this season.  The Demigods will be looking for bounce-back seasons from Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels.  The bullpen is likely to be a weakness.  While they could have as many as three closers, not one of them is in a particularly safe situation.  Fernando Rodney did manage to save 39 games a year ago though.  While the Demigods are projected to finish seventh in the league in both batting and pitching points, I believe their offense is much stronger than the pitching staff right now.  Will Kluber be able to carry them into contention again this year?

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank - Gators)

    • Batting Average - 7th (6th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (5th)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 10th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (8th)

    • Wins - 3rd (5th)

    • Saves - 9th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 9th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (6th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (10th)

    • Total Points - 7th-T (10th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos inaugural DTBL seasons should be pretty interesting.  They inherited a Gators roster that finished in last place a year ago, but had a relatively decent offense.  Early signs are that the Komodos could be more than just decent with the bats.  The pitching staff, however, is still a work in progress.  Adding Cody Bellinger to an already potent lineup has helped make the Komodos the second best offensive team in the entire league, according to these projections.  Jose Ramirez looks to build on his breakout '17 campaign.  Other young players who could be poised to do big things in '18 include Starling Marte, Joey Gallo and Corey Seager.  Also, don't forget about Wil Myers, Yoenis Cespedes, Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz.  The Komodos received some bad news today with catcher Salvador Perez suffering an off-field knee injury that will shelve him until mid-May or so.  But otherwise, things are looking up for the Komodos hitters.  The pitching staff will have trouble escaping the cellar, however.  Jose Quintana is definitely the ace of the staff.  Rich Hill and Gio Gonzalez are solid veterans.  As is Ervin Santana, but he will likely miss the first month with a hand injury.  One young pitcher to keep an eye on is Dylan Bundy.  The bullpen has some interesting guys, most notably recent acquisition Aroldis Chapman, but may struggle to rack up saves.  Greg Holland remains an unsigned free agent.  Getting him onto a roster as a closer would certainly help.  It will be fun to see if the Komodos can make some noise in their first season.

  • Komodos Nab Bellinger

    Embed from Getty Images
    The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

    In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

    In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

    With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

    The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

    Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

    While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

    The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

    Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

    For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

    Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

    The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

    The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

    The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

    With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

     

     

  • DTBL 25: Gators Farewell

    Embed from Getty Images
    Happy 25th Anniversary!  On January 18, 1993, the later-to-be-named DTBL held its inaugural draft.  When thinking about how I would commemorate this important date in league history, I was originally planning on writing about how the league came together and what happened on this date 25 years ago.  But then it dawned on me that I already did that, exactly five years ago.  So I invite you to read that article again.  While today is the official league anniversary date, I intend to celebrate it all year long.  Yes, 2018 will be our 26th season.  But now we have 25 full years of history to look back upon.  Today, however, I am going to share some news instead.  Our 15 year run with the same 10 league members is coming to an end.  One of our original members has decided to step down.  Greg will be relinquishing control of the Gators.

    Greg informed me shortly after the season that he intended to retire from the league.  He indicated that he simply doesn’t follow baseball like he used to and thus fantasy baseball had lost its appeal to him.  At that time, I told him I would give him a couple months to think it over, although it was clear he had already given it plenty of thought.  This week, he confirmed that he will be stepping down.

    Greg, if you are reading this, thank you for your 25 years of service to this league.  It never would have gotten started without you and the other original members of the league.  You all were crazy enough to let me talk you into giving fantasy baseball a shot, even though none of us, myself included, really knew what we were doing in 1993.  The fact that this league still exists is definitely something I am extremely proud of.  But it wouldn’t have happened without you.  So thanks again, Greg.  You will be missed in this league, but we’ll certainly keep in touch.

    When looking at the Gators franchise history, obviously they haven’t been very successful of late, but that was not always the case.  They won two DTBL championships, in 1995 and 1998, and were arguably the most dominant franchise in the league during the late 90’s.  From 1995 to 2000, they never finished worse than third place.  The ’95 championship squad was probably their strongest ever, and in the discussion as one of the most talented rosters in the league history.  They were led offensively by Mo Vaughn, Dante Bichette, plus a couple of guys who passed away far too young:  Kirby Puckett and Ken Caminiti.  The roster featured a pair of DTBL rookies who went on to become two of the best players in league history:  Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez.  The Gators ’95 draft is on the short list of best drafts any team has ever had.  In addition to the stars of that ’95 squad, some of the other Gators all-time greats include Derek Jeter, who is the only player in league history to accumulate 3,000 hits, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner. An interesting fact that I didn’t realize until looking over the Gators team page this evening is that they only finished in last place twice: their first (1993) and last (2017) seasons. Since 1994 was an expansion season, this means the only time they ever had the first pick in the draft was that inaugural year of 1993. So while there were a lot of down years towards the end of the franchise’s history, the Gators were almost never the worst team in the league.

    I know plenty of people who probably would have been interested in taking Greg’s place in the league.  But it was a pretty easy decision to whom I would give the first offer.  My youngest sister, Kathleen, will be joining the league as a full member.  As you know, last year she filled in admirably for Jay while he was deployed overseas.  So now she will have full control with much more freedom to build the roster however she sees fit.  By the way, Kathleen is younger than this league!  She was born a couple weeks after that inaugural draft of ’93.  Welcome, Kathleen!  Oh, and while I’m at it, welcome back, Jay!

    Since we haven’t had an ownership change in 15 years, there isn’t a lot of recent precedent on how to handle this situation.  In the past, we have not had new owners inherit existing rosters, even when there was only one new team.  However, I suggest we change that now.  Our previous “expansion” process was pretty rough on the newcomers, particularly considering how deep of a keeper league this is.  Many of you experienced that first-hand, particular Nick, who I believe is the only current league member who came into the league as a lone newcomer.  So I would understand it if you feel it is unfair for a new member to not have to go through that as well.  On the other hand, it would be *far* less work for me if we simply allow Kathleen to inherit Greg’s team as is.  And let’s be honest, she wouldn’t be taking over a stacked roster.  I am proposing that from here on out, as long as there is only one newcomer to the league, that person simply takes over the existing roster of the departing owner.  If there are multiple new members in a season, they will have a mini-draft to pick keepers from the rosters of the departed.  If anyone has a problem with my proposal, please let me know with a reply to this post, a forum post, or a direct email.  We obviously need to get this squared away pretty soon since roster cuts will be due in just a couple weeks.

    There will be a whole lot more to come soon on the upcoming season and our year long 25th Anniversary celebration.  Congrats to all on a great quarter century!