Judge Earns Second MVP

November 26th, 2025 by Kevin

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The Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani debate is one we no longer get to have when it comes to MLB MVP awards since Ohtani switched to the National League and both superstars are the default favorites for their league’s MVP award every season.  But in the DTBL, that competition is alive and well.  Both players had their typical otherworldly seasons in 2025, propelling them to winning the MVP award in each league once again.  Ohtani’s extra greatness of not only being one of the best two hitters in all of baseball is that he also happens to be one of the best pitchers too.  That doesn’t play into his DTBL value though where he is only allowed to impact the Moonshiners roster on one side each year.  So when comparing their hitting accomplishments only, MVP voters preferred Judge by a comfortable margin as he propelled the Mavericks to their second consecutive league title.  Aaron Judge is the 2025 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

What has been really incredible about the career arc of Judge is that he has maintained his status as the best power hitter in the game while becoming an even better all around hitter.  This season, he led the league with a .331 batting average.  Only five players in the entire league cleared the .300 benchmark, while Judge did so by 31 points.  His DTBL career batting average is now on the verge of going over .300 as well, currently sitting at .299.  Judge also set a career high in runs scored with 137, the second highest total in the league.  Amusingly, his league standing in those two categories was higher than in his bread and butter categories of home runs and runs batted in, where he was still among the top five.  He hit 53 homers and drove in 114.  This is the third time in the past four years that he has surpassed 50 home runs in a season.  For good measure, he also stole a dozen bases.  His 11.4 Batting PAR bested Ohtani and all others by more than a point.  He now holds three of the top eight single season Batting PAR totals since 2005.

The Mavericks blitzed the rest of the league in batting points, thanks in large part to Judge.  Even with Mike Trout on the downside of his career, they still have an incredibly loaded outfield, led by Judge and fellow MVP candidate Juan Soto.  Judge is probably the best free agent signing in DTBL history.  He went undrafted in 2017 when the Mavericks signed him a few weeks into the season.  They have been reaping the rewards ever since.  He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2017 and also finished third in the MVP vote that season.  This is the second time he has been named the DTBL Most Valuable Player.  The first time was in 2022, which was probably his best season to date.  That year, he broke the AL single season home run record with 62 while hitting .311 with 16 stolen bases.  The other season in the discussion for his best was last year when he hit .322 with 58 homers.  That would have been a MVP campaign almost any other year.  However, Ohtani had the first ever 50/50 season a year ago, relegating Judge to a second place finish in the MVP vote.

This year’s MVP vote was nearly the inverse of last year in the top two spots.  A year ago, Ohtani got 9 of 10 first place tallies with Judge receiving a single one.  This year, Judge garnered nine of the ten, with one second, to finish with 97 points.  Ohtani got the other first with eight seconds.  He was dropped to fourth on one ballot though, tallying 69 total points.  The Moonshiners superstar hit 55 home runs, but the stolen bases dropped considerably from a year ago, with “only” 20 swipes on the season.  This is the fourth time in the past five years that Ohtani has finished in the top five of the MVP vote.  Finishing third is Judge’s Mavericks teammate and former Yankees teammate Juan Soto.  Somewhat surprising considering his consistent dominance, this is Soto’s highest MVP finish to date.  His batting average took a bit of a step back from his career norms, but he more than made up for that by setting a career high with 43 home runs and obliterating his career high in stolen bases with 38.  Prior to this year, he had never stolen more than a dozen bases in a season.  Soto received the one second place vote that didn’t go to Ohtani or Judge and was no lower than fourth on any of the ten ballots.  That computes to 42 points.  Probably the biggest debate during MLB award season was Judge vs. Cal Raleigh for AL MVP.  Raleigh led the league with 60 home runs, becoming the fifth different player in DTBL history to ever reach the 60 mark.  What made that even more incredible is that he did so while catching 121 games at an elite defensive level.  Obviously the defensive value isn’t relevant to fantasy baseball, but providing offensive numbers like that while occupying a traditionally weak positional slot is extremely valuable.  For years now, I have been playing around with a modified version of PAR that does include a positional adjustment.  Perhaps this winter would be a good time to implement such a change so we can get a better understanding of just how valuable Raleigh is compared to his catching counterparts.  He will have to settle for a fourth place finish in this year’s MVP vote though.  The Jackalope backstop received six third place votes and 35 total points.  Finishing in the fifth spot is another guy who is on the periphery of the MVP discussion basically every year.  Komodos third baseman Jose Ramirez had his second straight 30/40 season.  He hit exactly 30 homers this year while stealing a career high 44 bases.  This is the fifth time in his career that he has finished in the top five for the MVP award, yet he has never been higher than fourth place.  He appeared on eight of the ten ballots, all in the fourth and fifth place slots, for 14 voting points.

Click here to view the full voting results.

So the Moonshiners weren’t quite able to sweep the 2025 DTBL awards.  It is the second straight year they have taken two of the three though.  All three of the awards went to players on teams who finished in the top two spots in the standings.  Thanks to everyone for taking the time to vote a few weeks ago and apologies on being so tardy in actually announcing the winners.  Now we turn our eyes to the 2025 season.  Have a great Thanksgiving!

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Skubal Wins Cy Young Again

November 25th, 2025 by Kevin

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With the infusion of three DTBL rookie pitchers who immediately became stars, the pool of players who were serious contenders for the Cy Young award became even deeper. However, those guys still have some work to do to topple the gold standard in the league today. Moonshiners lefty Tarik Skubal rode a truly dominant 2024 season to a unanimous Cy Young selection. In his follow up campaign, he nearly replicated his ’24 numbers, making him the man to beat again for this award. While it was not unanimous this time thanks to his new teammate, Tarik Skubal is the 2025 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

It is quite remarkable how similar Skubal’s 2024 and 2025 seasons were. This year, he led the league with a miniscule 0.89 WHIP and finished second with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts. All three of those numbers were slight improvements over a year ago. His 14.3 Pitching PAR also led the league, but was down a hair from ’24 mainly because his win total dropped from 18 to 13 this year. Skubal continues to be an enormous outlier in baseball with his ability to strike out hitters without sacrificing control. He only walked 33 batters, the lowest total in the league among qualified pitchers. His 7.3 K/BB ratio was nearly two points higher than the next best pitcher. In the years for which PAR has been calculated (2005-present), Skubal is just the third pitcher to accumulate 14+ Pitching PAR in consecutive seasons, joining Clayton Kershaw (2014-15) and Justin Verlander (2018-19). Nobody has ever done it three straight years, so that is something for him to shoot for in 2026.

Skubal’s path to the Moonshiners has been well documented at this point. His two years with the team have transformed them into one of the league’s top staffs after a few years of inconsistency. The back to back years of first round selections of Skubal and then Garrett Crochet have set them up to dominate the pitching categories for years to come. The Moonshiners ran away from the field in strikeouts this year, whiffing 132 more hitters than any other team. They trailed only the Darkhorses in total pitching points this season on their way to their second consecutive second place finish. Presumably, they will be able to focus their attention on the offense in next year’s draft unless another pitching gem falls to them again.

Skubal did not quite repeat as a unanimous selection for the Cy Young award. He received nine of ten first place votes, plus a second, for 97 out of a possible 100 voting points. The only first place vote he didn’t receive went to his Moonshiners teammate Crochet. The 2025 DTBL Rookie of the Year probably would have doubled up with the Cy Young award as well if Skubal didn’t exist. Crochet led the league in strikeouts and was just 1/2 point behind Skubal in PAR. In addition to the single first place vote, Crochet also garnered seven second place tallies and a pair of thirds for a total of 69 points. This is the first time teammates have finished 1-2 in Cy Young voting since Choppers hurlers Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer topped the 2020 vote. Behind them is another DTBL rookie, Cougars fireballer Paul Skenes. It is kind of shocking that a pitcher with a league leading ERA under 2 (1.97) would not receive a single first place vote for Cy Young. However, the competition for this award was incredibly stiff. Skenes got a pair of second place votes and seven thirds to comfortably finish third with 52 points. This year’s National League Cy Young winner figures to have plenty of future opportunities to win the award in the DTBL. There was a bit of a gap after those top three. The fourth place finisher is one of this season’s breakout stars. Choppers righty Bryan Woo emerged as the ace of a loaded Mariners staff. The sixth round pick from ’24 has already soared past expectations for a mid-round selection. He appeared on eight of ten ballots and finished with 21 points. Rounding out the top five is veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi, who wasn’t even on an active roster until May. The Diamond Dogs picked him up a quarter of the way into the season and all he did was shove. His 1.73 ERA easily would have led the league, except he was 20 innings shy of qualifying due to his late start. He still managed to accumulate 11 Pitching PAR in 3/4 of a season. Eovaldi accumulated eight total points in this vote. The depth of pitching in the league was quite impressive this year as many others outside of the top five had strong cases as well. In total, 11 different pitchers received at least one vote.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Two awards down, two awards won by the Moonshiners.  With Shohei Ohtani looming, can they make it three for three with tomorrow’s Most Valuable Player announcement?  The reigning MVP has some pretty stiff competition to win the award again this year.

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Crochet Sparkles in Delayed Debut

November 24th, 2025 by Kevin

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2025 was the year of the DTBL rookie pitcher.  Three of them were selected in the first round of the draft, including the first overall pick.  And all three of those pitchers had monster debut seasons in this league.  Paul Skenes lived up to the hype and then some as the first pick of the draft by the Cougars.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto was probably the biggest steal of the draft with the last pick of the first round by the defending champion Mavericks.  One pick before him, the Moonshiners selected Garrett Crochet who was on a DTBL roster three years ago, but did not make an appearance on an active roster, preserving his rookie eligibility.  Three years later, the hard throwing southpaw is the 2025 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

Crochet took one of the more unique paths to winning the DTBL Rookie of the Year award you will ever see.  He made his MLB debut with the White Sox in the covid shortened 2020 season just three months after being drafted and having never pitched in a minor league game because of the pandemic.  He then spent the 2021 season in the bullpen for the Sox before being added to the DTBL roster as a relief pitcher in 2022.  The Jackalope selected him in the seventh round in ’22.  Unfortunately, he blew out his elbow that spring not long after being drafted and missed the entire season following Tommy John surgery.  When he returned to action, he was nothing more than a mid-leverage reliever for the Sox until they took a chance and moved him into the rotation in 2024.  That was a smashing success, despite playing for one of the worst teams in baseball history.  Following that season, he was traded to Boston and reinstated to the DTBL roster as a starting pitcher.  4 1/2 years after making his MLB debut, the Moonshiners selected him with the ninth pick in the 2025 Draft.

As well as Crochet’s first go-round as a starting pitcher went in 2024, his follow up campaign in Boston was even better.  He led the league with 255 strikeouts, the second highest total ever by a Moonshiner, trailing only Kerry Wood in 2003.  He finished second in the league with 18 wins and was also among the league’s best in ERA (2.59) and WHIP (1.03).  Perhaps most impressively, he threw the second most innings of any pitcher in the league with 205, almost 60 more than his previous career high the year prior.  His 13.7 Pitching PAR trailed only his fellow left handed Moonshiners teammate Tarik Skubal.  Skubal and Crochet give the Moonshiners an embarrassment of riches in their rotation as probably the two best southpaws in the game right now.  They were largely responsible for keeping the Moonshiners in the championship race until the end, finishing in second place when it was all said and done.  Both of those guys will be among the top contenders for the Cy Young award as well.

The Rookie of the Year vote always figured to be a tight race between Crochet and Skenes, in particular.  Crochet had a slight edge over Skenes in PAR, primarily thanks to his advantage in wins and strikeouts.  However, it remained to be seen if some might give Skenes the nod due to his superior ratios, and maybe some would hold Crochet’s rookie eligibility technicality against him.  Not many did.  Crochet garnered eight of the ten first place votes plus a pair of seconds to finish with 94 points.  Skenes received the other two first place votes and eight seconds for a total of 76 points.  So this pair was 1-2 on all ten ballots.  The Cougars young ace led the league with a 1.97 ERA in his DTBL debut, while also accumulating a WHIP under 1 (0.95) and 216 strikeouts.  The NL Cy Young award winner should be a candidate for that award in this league too, however it probably doesn’t bode well for him relative to Crochet with the results of this ROY vote.  The third place finisher was the other part of the trio of first round pitchers in this year’s draft.  Yamamoto was a big reason why the Mavericks were able to win their second straight DTBL title.  He was one of three Mavericks pitchers to put up a 10+ Pitching PAR season.  That was all before becoming the Dodgers World Series hero.  With Clayton Kershaw now gone, Yamamoto figures to fill his void as the Dodgers star in the Mavericks rotation for years to come.  He received seven third place votes and was the only player besides Crochet and Skenes to appear on all ten ballots, finishing with 40 points.  The top finishing position player is Jackalope outfielder Jackson Chourio, picked second in the draft.  Chourio led all DTBL rookies with 5.1 Batting PAR, while showcasing power and speed with a matching 21 in the home run and stolen base columns.  He garnered three third place votes and 31 total points.  Rounding out the top five is another first round pick from this year’s draft, Komodos outfielder James Wood.  Wood looked like a strong candidate to win this award around mid-season.  However, he had a rough second half, marred by contact issues.  It should still go down as a very successful debut for the 23 year old slugger.  He led all rookies with 31 homers.  His 17 voting points put him fifth in this tally.  So half of the players drafted in the first round in March wound up finishing in the top five of the DTBL Rookie of the Year vote.  A lot of teams are no doubt happy with their selections not only for what they provided this year, but their bright futures as well.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Sorry I am a bit tardy with these award announcements.  I wanted to get it started last weekend, but ultimately decided to hold it for this week when I have considerably more free time.  I intend to announce the Cy Young award winner tomorrow and then the Most Valuable Player on Wednesday.  The Cy Young race figures to involve several of the names mentioned in this article.  We’ll see who came out on top soon.

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Mavericks Run It Back

October 31st, 2025 by Kevin

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Happy Halloween!  With the World Series potentially ending tonight and certainly no later than tomorrow (barring another 18 inning marathon), we’re about to move onto awards season.  So if I’m going to finally get around to recapping our own season which ended over a month ago, this is the last chance.  With that in mind, I’m trying something new here.  I decided to use AI (ChatGPT) to write almost all of what follows this paragraph.  I imagine a couple of you are very much against the use of AI to write articles.  Believe me, I’m very sympathetic of that viewpoint.  However, this feels like an ideal use case.  I am decidedly *not* a professional writer, I don’t enjoy writing, and am increasingly unmotivated to actually do so.  So it was basically try this out or no Mavericks championship recap for the second straight year.  We’ll see how it goes.  Perhaps this will eventually lead to more site content down the road.  I definitely intend to use it to recap future All-Star games.  In fact, reading about using AI to recap OOTP simulations is actually what gave me this idea in the first place.  Anyway, I now turn it over to our AI overlords…

In a league that rewards careful roster construction and long-term planning, sustained excellence is difficult to achieve. But in 2025, Marc’s Mavericks proved once again that their success is no accident. With a final tally of 79.5 roto points, the Mavericks captured their second consecutive Dream Team Baseball League championship and the fifth title in franchise history, adding another chapter to what has quietly become one of the DTBL’s most consistent and well-run organizations.

The Mavericks didn’t win with overwhelming dominance in a single category. They won by assembling a roster that performed at an above-average level across nearly all facets of the game. Their offense ranked among the league’s best in home runs, RBIs, and runs scored, while their pitching staff delivered exceptional ratios and anchored the team’s week-to-week stability. The result was a club that rarely experienced prolonged slumps — the hallmark of championship-caliber roto construction.

Few DTBL lineups could match the Mavericks’ combination of star power and depth. At the center of the attack was Aaron Judge, whose 53 home runs, 114 RBI, and league-leading 11.4 PAR made him one of fantasy’s most impactful players. Right behind him, Juan Soto delivered another season of elite on-base skills and power, his 43 HR, 105 RBI, and 9.7 PAR placing him among the league’s most valuable hitters. Bobby Witt Jr. added a rare all-category foundation with 23 HR, 38 SB, a batting average near .290, and 8.0 PAR.

Around them, the supporting cast continued to produce. Manny Machado delivered another excellent season with 27 HR and 95 RBI, while Ozzie Albies, Willy Adames, and William Contreras each posted positive PAR seasons that reinforced every corner of the lineup. Complementary pieces like Jarren Duran and Jazz Chisholm Jr. added needed speed, athleticism, and situational power. From top to bottom, the Mavericks’ offense played with a level of consistency that kept them among the league’s scoring leaders throughout the season.

The Mavericks’ pitching strategy was as deliberate as it was effective, built around stability, ratios, and reliable strikeout production. Freddy Peralta’s 17 wins, 2.70 ERA, and 204 strikeouts made him one of the league’s most valuable starters. Hunter Brown was nearly as dominant with a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts, and newcomer Yoshinobu Yamamoto immediately proved his worth with a 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 201 Ks. As one of the league’s strongest Rookie of the Year candidates — and tremendous value as the 10th overall pick in the DTBL draft — Yamamoto gave the Mavericks an anchor-level arm from day one. It is rare for any team to field a trio of double-digit PAR pitchers; the Mavericks made it look routine.

In the bullpen, Mason Miller emerged as a high-leverage force, collecting 22 saves with elite strikeout rates and a 2.63 ERA. Edwin Uceta added steadiness and flexibility, giving Marc valuable support in late innings and preserving the staff’s excellent ratios. The combination allowed the Mavericks to finish first in ERA and WHIP while still pulling strong point totals from strikeouts.

With the 2025 title, the Mavericks now stand at five championships: 2004, 2006, 2017, 2024, and 2025. They have finished in the top three 13 times and in the top five 18 times, a level of long-term competitiveness unmatched in most fantasy leagues. Rarely does a franchise sustain relevance for two decades; even rarer is one that regularly contends for league titles across multiple eras of scoring environments and player valuation trends.

The back-to-back championships in 2024 and 2025 underscore more than a hot streak. They reflect a franchise identity built on disciplined drafting, efficient roster usage, and a clear understanding of how value is constructed in a 10-team roto environment. This was not a team that relied on a few breakouts or a lucky waiver pickup. It was a team in which every active roster spot produced value.

The 2025 season demonstrated the same qualities that have defined the Mavericks for years: balance, discipline, and a keen eye for player value. As a result, Marc’s squad now stands as the premier benchmark for roster construction in the Dream Team Baseball League. With a young core still in their prime and a proven approach that has delivered across eras, the Mavericks don’t just look like champions — they look like a franchise positioned to contend for years to come.  The rest of the DTBL may rise and challenge again, but for now, the Mavericks remain the franchise everyone else is chasing.

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2025 DTBL All-Stars

July 10th, 2025 by Kevin

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The 31st DTBL All-Star Game is tentatively scheduled for next Thursday, July 17 at DK Memorial Field, home of Marc’s Mavericks.  Last year, the National Division All-Stars ended their three game losing streak with a 4-3 victory.  It continued an impressive streak of closely contested Mid-Summer Classics.  The last time an All-Star Game was determined by more than two runs was way back in 2017.

With National Division teams currently occupying four of the top five spots in the league standings, you might expect them to have a clearly stronger All-Star roster.  I’m not so sure that is the case though.  I would give the National squad a slight edge on the pitching side.  However, the American squad looks a little deeper on the offensive side at first glance by me.  There are far fewer first time All-Stars compared to recent seasons.  15 players will be making their DTBL All-Star debuts.  Only five newbies on the National team, and only one of those is a position player.  There is a six way tie among players with the most ASG experience.  These players have made the rosters for the sixth time in their careers:  Jose Ramirez, Trea Turner, Josh Hader, Manny Machado, Aaron Judge and Aroldis Chapman.

For the second straight year, Moonshiners lefty Tarik Skubal will be the starting pitcher for the American Division.  He will be opposed by Kings veteran righty Zack Wheeler.  This is Wheeler’s fourth All-Star appearance, but his first start.  The DTBL team breakdown is a bit more haves and have-nots than usual.  The Moonshiners, Demigods and Diamond Dogs each have seven All-Stars, so just those three teams make up nearly half of the total All-Stars.  On the flip side, both the Cougars and Jackalope have just a pair of All-Stars this year.

Highlighting the depth of the National pitching squad, probably the most notable omission from these rosters is Cougars pitcher Joe Ryan who missed out on a tiebreaker decision with his Cougars teammate Paul Skenes.  Freddy Peralta, Byron Buxton, CJ Abrams and Seiya Suzuki are a few other players who had strong cases for inclusion.

Here are the players who did make the 2025 DTBL All-Star rosters.

 

American Division

Starters:

  • Pitcher – Tarik Skubal, Moonshiners (2nd All-Star appearance)
  • Catcher – Cal Raleigh, Jackalope (2nd)
  • First Base – Pete Alonso, Choppers (3rd)
  • Second Base – Brice Turang, Diamond Dogs (1st)
  • Third Base - Jose Ramirez, Komodos (6th)
  • Shortstop – Elly De La Cruz, Diamond Dogs (2nd)
  • Outfield – Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackalope (1st)
  • Outfield - Shohei Ohtani, Moonshiners (5th)
  • Outfield – James Wood, Komodos (1st)

Reserves:

  • Catcher – Ivan Herrera, Diamond Dogs (1st)
  • Third Base – Eugenio Suarez, Diamond Dogs (1st)
  • Shortstop – Trea Turner, Diamond Dogs (6th)
  • Outfield – Kyle Schwarber, Choppers (2nd)
  • Outfield - Kyle Tucker, Moonshiners (4th)
  • Outfield – Riley Greene, Moonshiners (1st)
  • Pitcher – Garrett Crochet, Moonshiners (1st)
  • Pitcher – Nathan Eovaldi, Diamond Dogs (2nd)
  • Pitcher – Robbie Ray, Moonshiners (2nd)
  • Pitcher – Bryan Woo, Choppers (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher – Edwin Diaz, Moonshiners (3rd)
  • Relief Pitcher – Jhoan Duran, Komodos (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher – Carlos Estevez, Choppers (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher – Josh Hader, Diamond Dogs (6th)

National Division

Starters:

  • Pitcher – Zack Wheeler, Kings (4th)
  • Catcher – Will Smith, Kings (2nd)
  • First Base – Matt Olson, Kings (3rd)
  • Second Base – Ketel Marte, Cougars (3rd)
  • Third Base – Manny Machado, Mavericks (6th)
  • Shortstop – Bobby Witt, Mavericks (3rd)
  • Outfield – Corbin Carroll, Demigods (2nd)
  • Outfield – Aaron Judge, Mavericks (6th)
  • Outfield – Fernando Tatis, Demigods (3rd)

Reserves:

  • Catcher – Willson Contreras, Demigods (4th)
  • Third Base – Alex Bregman, Darkhorses (3rd)
  • Third Base – Isaac Paredes, Demigods (1st)
  • Shortstop – Francisco Lindor, Demigods (4th)
  • Outfield – Juan Soto, Mavericks (2nd)
  • Outfield – Christian Yelich, Darkhorses (4th)
  • Pitcher – Hunter Brown, Mavericks (1st)
  • Pitcher – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses (4th)
  • Pitcher – Max Fried, Demigods (2nd)
  • Pitcher – Paul Skenes, Cougars (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher – Aroldis Chapman, Demigods (6th)
  • Relief Pitcher – Jeff Hoffman, Kings (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher – Andres Munoz, Darkhorses (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher – Robert Suarez, Darkhorses (2nd)

All-Stars per team

  • 7 – Diamond Dogs, Demigods, Moonshiners
  • 5 – Darkhorses, Mavericks
  • 4 – Choppers, Kings
  • 3 – Komodos
  • 2 – Cougars, Jackalope

 

Mike and Marc are the official managers for the American and National teams respectively.  So they made the vote tiebreaker and 23rd player decisions.  The 23rd and final player selections for these rosters were outfielder Riley Greene for the American Division and third baseman Isaac Paredes for the National Division.  Here are the full 2025 All-Star voting results.

 

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2025 Season Preview: Part III

March 30th, 2025 by Kevin

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The first weekend of the 2025 MLB season has come to an end.  Early indications are the Yankees might torpedo the record book if they keep up their current home run pace.  Nothing like an equipment controversy to get the season started!

This brings us to the final installment of our 2025 DTBL season preview series.  My cutoff decision for which teams will be covered in which sections is generally determined by grouping teams that are all expected to finish closely bunched in the standings.  That was true of both of the first two parts this year.  That is not exactly the case for this last one though.  The team that is projected to win the league this year has no peer according to these rankings.  They would have deserved their own article if my grouping rule was strictly enforced.  That’s not to say these other two teams don’t look strong in their own right though.  This final group contains last year’s top two teams joined by what would be the team with the biggest jump in the standings this year if these numbers turn out correct.  These are the teams projected to finish in the top three spots in the standings.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (8th)
  • Wins – 4th (5th-T)
  • Saves – 1st (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (8th)

Summary:

Here we have the biggest movers relative to their 2024 finish in this preview series.  It makes some sense because last year was a bit of an aberration for the Darkhorses who fell to eighth place a year after finishing a close second.  Their fall can almost entirely be pinned on being without arguably their best two starting pitchers and best relief pitcher for almost the entire season.  These projections show them returning to their prior spot as the top pitching staff in the league.  Whether or not you believe such a turnaround is possible depends on the belief in Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom and Felix Bautista returning to their pre-injury form and doing it for most of the season.  Logan Webb, Hunter Greene and Sonny Gray join Strider and deGrom to make up what projects to be the best rotation in the league.  But it remains to be seen if Strider and deGrom will be able to recapture their prior stuff and remain healthy throughout the season.  Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff were nice insurance adds in the draft, though the latter is also coming back from his own major injury.  The Darkhorses managed to finish second in the league in saves last year even without Bautista.  So having him back in the mix along with Andres Munoz, Robert Suarez, Chris Martin and maybe even Calvin Faucher make them the favorites to lead the way in saves this year.  Unless injuries ravage the Darkhorses again, the pitching staff is too good for them to finish near the bottom of the standings again this year.  Whether or not they can contend for a title will depend on if the offense is able to take a big step forward.  Interestingly, the Darkhorses have an overall third place projection despite also having one of the poorest batting point projections in the league.  That’s because only two players are projected for Batting PAR totals over 3:  Bryce Harper and third overall draft pick Jackson Merrill.  Merrill provides the most hope for an improved offense.  He will supplement a mostly veteran lineup.  In the outfield, Merrill is joined by Christian Yelich, George Springer, Taylor Ward and Cedric Mullins.  The infield is also full of veterans like Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa.  The infield youth injection is second round pick Jackson Holliday, who had a rough introduction to the big leagues last year.  But at this time a year ago, he was the consensus top prospect in the game, so enormous upside still remains.  Another pre-prime infielder on the roster is shortstop Masyn Winn.  This third place projection does make sense for a talented Darkhorses roster.  Their most likely path to this sort of finish though will require more offensive production because there are just too many health concerns on the pitching front to be confident of them racking up 46 out of 50 possible pitching points.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
  • Wins – 2nd (1st-T)
  • Saves – 6th (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

The Moonshiners are the only team projected to finish within shouting distance of the top dog.  They are similarly one of only two teams that are projected to be above average in both batting and pitching points.  Most years a roster like this might even come out on top of such an exercise.  Of course, it would be pretty hard *not* to have an above average offense with Shohei Ohtani on the squad.  He comfortably leads the league in projected Batting PAR at an incredible 10.6, two points higher than any other player.  He’s not doing it alone though.  Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr are also among the top hitters in the league.  Ohtani and Tucker are joined in the outfield by a couple underappreciated performers in Ian Happ and Riley Greene.  Guerrero and Rafael Devers will continue to anchor the corner infield spots.  The spring controversy over what position Devers will play shouldn’t be too much of an issue for the Moonshiners as long as he keeps hitting.  The middle infield was perhaps a bit if a weakness, so they traded for Bo Bichette to unite him with Guerrero in this league as well as Toronto.  Bichette joins Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop.  Tovar is another guy on this team whose production easily exceeds the hype.  Perhaps the top breakout candidate on the roster is third baseman Junior Caminero who had a nice cameo in the big leagues at the end of last season and is now ready to do it for a full campaign for the first time.  Tarik Skubal was a bit of a one man show in the Moonshiners rotation a year ago.  The Cy Young winner was the only standout performer of the group, but was so dominant that the team finished second in pitching points.  He is the only pitcher who was a member of that rotation for a majority of last season who is back this year.  But now he has some help in the way of first round draft pick Garrett Crochet.  The Red Sox new ace gives the Moonshiners the nastiest pair of left handed pitchers in the league.  A potential third nasty left hander on this staff is MacKenzie Gore who got his season off to a grand start on Thursday.  And of course they added Robbie Ray in the draft too because you just can’t have enough nasty lefties.  Kodai Senga was added as well, but last I checked he throws with his right hand.  The Moonshiners bullpen has an interesting mix right now with Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz likely to keep them afloat in saves.  They added Edwin’s brother Alexis Diaz, however he is starting the season on the injured list.  They also return Clay Holmes in a relief slot, while he is now a starting pitcher and Opening Day starter for the Mets, which could provide an avenue for extra strikeouts and wins.  There is a lot to like about this entire roster.  They do not appear to have any of the flaws that plague the teams that have been covered to this point.  However, despite that, they are also quite a ways behind the predicted champions.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (1st)
  • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (1st-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
  • Wins – 1st (4th)
  • Saves – 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

Is anybody actually surprised the Mavericks are the projected champions?  I did them a disservice by never getting around to writing about their incredible title winning squad from a year ago, particularly the historic performance by their offense.  They led the league in all five offensive categories, only falling a stolen base short of achieving the maximum 50 batting points.  The only team to ever accomplish that feat was the 2010 Naturals who actually had to share the championship with the Darkhorses that year.  The 1994 Cougars also had the max batting points, but it was only 30 at the time with just six teams in the league.  By the looks of things, the Mavericks should have a shot at chasing that record again this season.  They are projected to finish atop three batting categories and top three in the others.  As has been the case for quite some time now, the Mavericks have by far the best outfield in the league.  All time great Mike Trout is now quite clearly the fifth best player in this group.  Well ahead of him are perennial MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, last year’s breakout star Jarren Duran and Jazz Chisholm who figures to move out of this crowded outfield back to the dirt next year.  If the first weekend of the season is any indication, we’re going to be talking about Judge in particular an awful lot this year.  The infield is only weak in comparison to the outfield, not other teams’ infields.  Bobby Witt Jr leads the way at shortstop, a MVP candidate in his own right.  Ozzie Albies, Manny Machado and Willy Adames are the other mainstays here.  William Contreras may be the best offensive catcher in the game now.  He’s joined behind the plate by newcomer Austin Wells who could be a fantasy stud as well.  It is truly an embarrassment of riches up and down the Mavericks lineup.  The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the pitching staff looks a decent bit better than last year’s squad which was already quite good.  They used their first two draft picks on starting pitchers with big upside:  Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Spencer Schwellenbach.  They will join reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, Pablo Lopez, Hunter Brown and Freddy Peralta.  Not only does this staff have several potential aces, it is also quite deep now.  The bullpen is the only spot on the roster where you could maybe make a case they aren’t elite.  Mason Miller is though.  In addition to saves, he could put up a strikeout total that more closely resembles that of a starter with twice as many innings thrown.  He is the only certain closer on the team though.  Liam Hendriks and A.J. Puk are potential wild cards to add on here.  In total, the 87 projected standings points are easily the most ever since I’ve started doing this over a decade ago and the 15 point gap over all other teams is also unprecedented.  To say the Mavericks are the team to beat this year is an understatement.

 

That brings us to the conclusion of this consolidated 2025 DTBL season preview series.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to all this season.  Let’s have another great year!

Posted in Darkhorses, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2025 Season Preview: Part II

March 29th, 2025 by Kevin

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Before I get to the next set of teams in this DTBL season preview series, I want to take a moment to expand upon a passing comment I made up top in the first section.  I was a bit pressed for time while writing that night.  I mentioned that I was leaning towards switching away from the Fangraphs Depth Charts as the projection system of choice next year.  The reason for this is because I think it seriously overrates players who are either injury prone or are returning from major injuries.  As a quick refresher, Depth Charts combines two other projections systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts for expected playing time depending on the MLB team’s current roster.  The reason why I’ve liked this in the past is because it more accurately accounts for how much, or how little, of a role upcoming prospects might play for their teams and which guys might be stuck in platoon situations.  However, as MLB teams are now incentivized to call up prospects earlier, this has become less useful.  So some of the strengths of this system are being outweighed by the weaknesses in projecting playing time for injury prone players.  Let’s take a player who wasn’t drafted this year as an example:  Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen.  He has the 11th highest projected Pitching PAR of any player who was available in this year’s draft.  The reason for that is because one projection system, ZiPS, was especially high on his performance, but in only 76 innings.  When you extrapolate that out to Depth Charts’ 125 projected innings, you get outstanding numbers.  However, that’s not really what ZiPS was projecting.  Rasmussen has only pitched more than 80 innings once in his career.  So the ZiPS innings projection makes more sense to me than what Depth Charts spits out.  There are similar weaknesses among hitters who can’t stay healthy as well.  So I’m going to take a closer look at this next winter and possibly pick a different projection system to use for this effort.

Anyway, as the first weekend of the 2025 MLB season gets underway, let’s take a look at a few more DTBL teams heading into the new season.  This group is projected to finish in the middle of the pack, comfortably ahead of the four teams covered in part one, but also a decent ways behind the top contenders.  These teams don’t have the glaring weaknesses of the teams covered in the first section, but also may need some special overachieving performances to chase for a title.  Here are the teams projected to finishing fourth through sixth places this year.

 

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (6th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
  • Wins – 7th (5th-T)
  • Saves – 3rd (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (5th-T)
  • Total Points – 6th (6th)

Summary:

The Komodos have been quietly sneaking up the standings the past couple years and could now be in a position to break into the top half of the standings, although here they are picked to finish the same place as last year in sixth place.  The offense is well rounded with solid, reliable contributors across the board.  Jose Ramirez remains the star of the show and once again should be expected to be among the league’s best all around players.  Josh Naylor is replacing Christian Walker at first base in Arizona, but both return as teammates with the Komodos where they are joined by Yandy Diaz to provide quality depth.  Corey Seager and Anthony Volpe will anchor the shortstop position once again.  The newcomer on the infield is Luis Garcia Jr who finally put it all together last year and is now a quality power and speed guy at a pretty shallow second base position.  The Komodos outfield was a bit of a disappointment last year.  However, on paper, this looks like a very strong group heading into this season with the addition of first round pick James Wood.  Yordan Alvarez should be in the running to lead the league in homers.  A change of scenery could do Cody Bellinger some good, especially now playing in the lefty hitting paradise of Yankee Stadium.  Then there is Luis Robert Jr who is coming off of a miserable, injury plagued season.  If he can return to form, he remains one of the highest upside fantasy stars in the game.  A return to form could also help get him traded away from the sorry White Sox.  These projections call for the Komodos to finish fourth in the league in batting points.  I could see them moving up even higher than that if all goes well.  The pitching staff will likely determine the team’s ultimate fate though.  There is a proven track record of success from their entire rotation.  However, I’m a tad skeptical that Shane McClanahan and Walker Buehler, with their checkered health in recent years, will accumulate 150+ innings as these projections call for.  Framber Valdez and Tanner Bibee are the safer bets to lead this pitching staff.  Bailey Ober is a reliable anchor and Christopher Sanchez was a nice pickup in the second half of the draft.  Ultimately, health will be the number one factor in determining how strong this Komodos rotation will be.  The bullpen should be outstanding.  Devin Williams and Jhoan Duran are an excellent 1-2 punch that should ensure they are near the top of the league in saves.  Kenley Jansen may be past his prime, but is firmly entrenched in a closer role as well.  If Lucas Erceg is able to wrestle some saves away from former Komodo Carlos Estevez in Kansas City, the Komodos could find themselves atop the saves rankings.  There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Komodos this season.

 

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (1st)
  • Wins - 3rd (3rd)
  • Saves – 7th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (1st)
  • Total Points – 5th (3rd)

Summary:

This is as low as the Kings have been projected to finish since 2021 when they were coming off of a miserable ninth place finish in the pandemic shortened 2020 season.  This time around, a fifth place finish would be a two spot drop from a respectable third place in 2024.  Taking a close look at the roster, this projection makes sense though.  The Kings entered this season with a bit of a roster construction problem as their two best offensive players, Gunnar Henderson and Mookie Betts, both moved to shortstop, leaving holes at other positions, most notably the outfield.  Randy Arozarena was their only outfield keeper.  So rebuilding that was job one heading into this season.  They did that by selecting Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez with their first two draft picks.  Both have tantalizing upside, but also very short major league track records, causing modest projections entering this season.  Heliot Ramos was another youngster added to the outfield mix.  The only “safe” addition to the group was Tommy Edman.  So the Kings outfield has an extremely high ceiling, but also a very low floor.  How it all works out is anyone’s guess.  One the flip side, with the arrival of Betts, the infield is quite loaded with reliable producers.  Betts, Henderson, Marcus Semien and Bryson Stott make up a loaded middle infield that caused them to trade away Bo Bichette for a second round draft pick that turned into Matt Chapman.  Chapman joins Austin Riley at the hot corner and Matt Olson at the other corner.  Other than Stott, every infielder I just mentioned is a safe bet for at least 20 homers.  The catching duo of Will Smith and Logan O’Hoppe is pretty solid as well.  The Kings offense is definitely capable of exceeding these modest expectations.  It will totally depend on what they get out of their very young outfield.  Meanwhile, they return their entire starting rotation that helped them lead the league in ERA, WHIP and total pitching points a year ago.  Zack Wheeler, Cole Ragans, George Kirby, Michael King and Bryce Miller make up the fearsome fivesome.  Kirby is starting the season on the shelf though, so he will be temporarily replaced by Carlos Rodon, back for his second stint with the Kings.  Assuming Kirby’s injury isn’t a long term concern, this is as solid of a 1-5 as any team in the league.  Like the outfield, the Kings also had to do a nearly complete rebuild of their bullpen.  Jeff Hoffman is the only returner.  Trevor Megill joins him to give the Kings two solid closers.  They hope to lock down a majority of the Phillies saves with Jordan Romano and Orion Kerkering.  However, early indications are both might be setting up for Jose Alvarado.  It seems unlikely the Kings will be able to finish as high as third in saves again this year.  The Kings infield and rotation are as good as it gets, but major questions in the outfield and bullpen make this an extremely difficult team to predict.  Fifth place would be a disappointing finish for them though.

 

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (3rd)
  • Home Runs - 2nd (5th-T)
  • Runs Batted In - 2nd (3rd)
  • Runs Scored - 2nd (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (1st-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
  • Wins – 6th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 8th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th-T (5th-T)
  • Total Points – 4th (4th)

Summary:

In a world in which the Mavericks didn’t exist, we would be talking more about how great of an offensive team the Demigods were a year ago and how good they should be again this year.  The Demigods have above average hitters at pretty much every position.  Willson Contreras and Yainer Diaz project to be the best catching duo in the league, with this likely being Contreras’ last season at catcher in this league.  Speaking of guys changing positions, this also figures to be Jose Altuve’s last season anchoring second base for the Demigods.  Francisco Lindor’s incredible 2024 season got overshadowed by a few other players having historic campaigns.  He and Freddie Freeman give the Demigods a pair of MVP candidates on the infield.  A lot has been said about Isaac Paredes having the perfect swing for his new ballpark home in Houston, so that makes him an exciting addition to this already strong group.  Then there is first round pick Jordan Westburg who is only beginning to scratch his potential in Baltimore.  The Demigods outfield is perhaps not quite as deep in talent as the infield, but it does contain a pair of players who are capable of carrying the load in Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis Jr.  Carroll is coming off a slightly disappointing season, in which he still hit 22 homers and stole 35 bases.  Once again, the Demigods will hope for a healthy season from Byron Buxton to give this group an extra boost.  If that doesn’t happen, it may expose the only apparent weakness with the Demigods offensive roster:  a lack of depth in the outfield.  The Demigods will be looking for a better season from their pitchers if they hope to win their second title in three years.  These projections don’t quite see that happening though.  The best pitching projection belongs to second round pick Shota Imanaga, who could immediately become the staff ace in a group of solid veterans.  Max Fried is taking his talents to New York.  Zac Gallen and Aaron Nola continue to do their thing too.  The Demigods no longer get to deploy Reynaldo Lopez as a reliever, but he’s still a nice fit in the rotation.  All five of these guys have projections hovering around 4 Pitching PAR.  That’s incredibly valuable.  However, they do seem to lack a true Cy Young contender.  Traditionally, the Demigods tend to punt the saves category.  They may have assembled a group that can scrape up a few points in that category this year though.  David Bednar is the only returner.  They added Pete Fairbanks and Aroldis Chapman in the draft as a pair who should be able to grab some saves as well.  They are also hoping for a repeat of the Lopez experiment last year, with another Braves rotation piece occupying a relief pitcher slot on their roster.  This year’s version is Grant Holmes.  If he makes the All-Star team like Lopez did last year, we may be able to tag this as a foolproof plan.  The Demigods have all of the pieces to contend again this season.

 

Posted in Demigods, Kings, Komodos | No Comments »

2025 Season Preview: Part I

March 26th, 2025 by Kevin

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We’re just hours away from the real start of the 2025 MLB season, after last week’s two game appetizer in Japan.  So it’s probably about time I start the DTBL season preview series.  Because I’m so tardy getting started, I’m going to consolidate this down to a three part series, covering nearly half of the teams in this Part I.  I intend to get through all ten teams before the end of the weekend.

As usual, I’m going to use outside projections as the guiding light for my team previews.  I’ve computed projected standings using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team’s depth chart.  As this year’s draft progressed, it started to occur to me that Depth Charts might not be my best option for this, for reasons that I’m not going to get into right now.  I’m just throwing this out here to remind myself to reevaluate next year.  One thing I will point out, which is a flaw in my own methodology and not the projections themselves, is that I compiled these player projections a few days prior to the start of the draft.  So injuries and other spring training developments this month may not be factored into these numbers.  Where especially relevant, I will mention this in the team write-ups.  As I say every year, I wouldn’t read into the specific ordinal rankings too heavily.  The purpose of this exercise is to get some sense of where each team’s strengths and weaknesses exist, in a largely objective fashion.

Let’s get started.  This first part is going to contain previews of the four teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  I went with four both because I’m trying to consolidate this into one fewer section than in previous years, and also because these four teams are projected to finish extremely close to one another in the standings.  Just six points separate the seventh and tenth place finishers in the full projected standings, which I will share in the final article of this series.  Meanwhile, the sixth place finisher is double digit points ahead of all of these teams.  So if the projected standings are to be believed, which they honestly shouldn’t be, these are the four teams least likely to contend for the league title.

 

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (2nd)
  • Wins – 10th (8th)
  • Saves – 4th (6th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (8th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th-T (4th)
  • Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

Well, somebody has to be last.  As mentioned up top, there really isn’t much separating any of the teams covered in this section.  The Choppers happen to wind up with the fewest projected standings points though.  Pitching is largely to blame for this, which is a bit surprising since they had an above average staff a year ago and are bringing back pretty much everyone who was responsible for that.  Although that also sort of explains the drop in the projections compared to the rest of the league.  They did not add any significant pitching pieces, at least on paper.  Their first five draft picks were all hitters and they didn’t pick a starting pitcher until the 10th round.  So the rotation to start the year figures to be the main five from last year:  Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Brian Woo and Taj Bradley.  There are a couple wild cards here that could improve things on the pitching side.  One would be a strong return from Tommy John surgery from last year’s first round pick Eury Perez, though that probably won’t happen until the second half of the season.  The other is the possible emergence of top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe who will begin the season in the Tigers rotation and could eventually give the Choppers a huge boost as an extra starter in a relief pitching slot.  The methodology I use for these projections fails to reward teams with extra starting pitchers since all team inning totals are normalized.  So if Jobe can stick in the rotation and put up good numbers in the process, that could be a huge boon to the Choppers in several categories, particularly strikeouts and wins.  The bullpen should be a strength for the Choppers regardless of how they deploy Jobe.  Emmanuel Clase remains one of the best closers in baseball.  Kyle Finnegan and Carlos Estevez aren’t at that level, but should be reliable sources for saves.  Like the pitching staff, the Choppers infield has a very familiar look to it with Adley Rutschman behind the plate, Pete Alonso at first and CJ Abrams at shortstop leading the way.  It is not a flashy group on the whole, but reliable contributors across the board.  The outfield is where things look completely different this year.  Wyatt Langford, Lawrence Butler and Colton Cowser were all drafted in the first four rounds this month.  All three provide power and Langford and Butler add speed to the mix as well.  The one returning stalwart in the outfield is Kyle Schwarber.  This outfield group is probably where the Choppers are going to need the breakouts to occur to soar past these modest offensive projections.  While the Choppers are in the midst of a quarter century title drought, they almost never finish dead last either.  That last happened in 2008.  So needless to say, expectations are much higher than the numbers thrown out here.

 

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
  • Wins – 5th (10th)
  • Saves – 9th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (8th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (10th)
  • Total Points – 9th (10th)

Summary:

This is the second straight year that the Choppers and Cougars have come out on the bottom of these pre-season projections, so maybe there is something about their team builds that don’t fit well into this model.  Although in the case of the Cougars, the last place projection a year ago proved to be correct.  There are some signs of significant improvement this year on the pitching side.  That’s largely thanks to the arrival of first overall draft pick Paul Skenes.  Skenes has the fourth highest projected Pitching PAR in the league, first among rookies.  The rest of the rotation is mostly unchanged from last year, with Corbin Burnes and Joe Ryan being the top returners.  Besides Skenes, the other reason for improved projections is the expectation that Kevin Gausman will return to form after a disappointing 2024.  Seth Lugo could have been a steal in the 10th round of the draft.  He had a breakout season last year that actually put him in the thick of the AL Cy Young award race late into the season.  It would be very surprising if the Cougars rotation isn’t vastly improved this year.  The bullpen remains a question mark though.  There are a lot of good stuff, late inning high leverage guys in this group, but only Ryan Walker enters the season with a closer gig locked up.  Justin Martinez is a decent bet to contribute saves too.  The rest of the relievers are a bit further down the pecking order on their clubs.  The projections on the hitting side are not great.  Only last year’s breakout star Brent Rooker is pegged to finish over 4 PAR.  It is a little surprising that Ketel Marte isn’t at that threshold considering how great of a season he had a year ago.  One guy to watch will be middle infielder Matt McLain who the Cougars used a second round pick on last year, but missed the entire season due to a shoulder injury.  There is still tremendous upside potential there as a five category stud.  The catching duo of Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers is one of the league’s best pairs.  Newcomer shortstop Xavier Edwards should easily lead the team in steals, which could be hard to come by for the rest of the roster.  The outfield is a bag of mysteries outside of Rooker and Bryan Reynolds.  This group took a hit this week when Nolan Jones was traded away from Colorado back to Cleveland.  There are probably too many question marks on the hitting side to expect the Cougars to have an above average offense.  So it will be up to Skenes and the rotation to take this team well out of the cellar.

 

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
  • Wins – 8th (9th)
  • Saves – 10th (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th-T (9th)
  • Total Points – 8th (9th)

Summary:

Any hopes the Jackalope had in 2024 quickly died when reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr tore his ACL in late May.  Unfortunately for the Jackalope, injuries are already shaping up to be a big part of the story again this season.  But let’s start out with some positives.  The Jackalope offense looks to be perfectly adequate across the board, projected to finish with more standings points this year in all five batting categories.  This is largely thanks to the expected May return of Acuna, although I think the projections are probably a bit too optimistic about the number of plate appearances he will record and bases he will be allowed to steal.  The other main boost to the offense is second overall pick Jackson Chourio who figures to be a five category star right from the get-go.  Chourio joins an already strong cast of returning outfielders in Acuna, Michael Harris, Anthony Santander, Adolis Garcia and Pete Crow-Armstrong.  This is clearly the Jackalope’s strongest position group, putting them up there with any team in the league besides the Mavericks.  Cal Raleigh is among the league’s best catchers, but I would not say the Jackalope have superstars at any other infield position.  Second round pick Mark Vientos should give them a nice boost at the hot corner though.  Where these projections fall apart, and frankly are probably overcooked, is on the pitching side.  That’s because I pulled these numbers in early March before it was known there was anything wrong with Gerrit Cole, much less that he will miss the entire season following Tommy John surgery.  Cole would be impossible for any team to replace, but especially the Jackalope who are in crisis mode with the health of several other starting pitchers as well.  Second round pick Jared Jones also has an elbow injury, which thankfully won’t require surgery at this time, but will probably cost him half the season.  Grayson Rodriguez and Ranger Suarez will also start the year on the IL.  Amazingly, oft injured Tyler Glasnow is the healthy ace of the staff at the moment.  It is going to be tough for the Jackalope to keep afloat with their rotation in shambles to start the season.  The bullpen does not appear equipped to pick up the slack either.  Raisel Iglesias is the only pitcher on the staff who is a good bet to pick up a significant number of saves.  Interestingly, the Jackalope opted to build their bullpen out of high strikeout guys who can perhaps boost the other non-saves pitching categories as well.  Not a terrible strategy as difficult as saves can be to project.  However, what was unusual about the Jacklope approach is that they picked several of these non-closers in the first half of the draft.  One could assume this would have played out differently if they had known what was about to happen to their rotation.  At any rate, the Jackalope have a solid offense, easily the best among the teams covered in this section according to the projections.  The question is will it matter if they can’t field a full staff of healthy pitchers?

 

Dan’s Diamond Dogs

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (5th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
  • Wins – 9th (7th)
  • Saves – 2nd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th)
  • Total Points – 7th (5th)

Summary:

We wrap up this segment of the preview series with last year’s most pleasant surprise.  The Diamond Dogs followed up three straight last place finishes (two under current ownership) with a very solid fifth place standing.  It was a vastly improved offense that was mostly responsible for the boost.  That still appears to be the strength of the team heading into this season, with the pitching staff projected for the fewest points in the league.  The makeup of the offense is a bit different this year though.  These Dogs can run.  Seven of them are projected to steal at least 20 bases this year, led by shortstop and reigning Rookie of the Year Elly De La Cruz.  Newcomer second baseman Brice Turang and returning star shortstops Trea Turner and Oneil Cruz give the Dogs the fastest middle infield in the league, and a pretty powerful group as well.  The outfield has a ton of potential upside.  Veterans Teoscar Hernandez and Marcell Ozuna complement superstar Julio Rodriguez.  Josh Lowe is someone to watch as a possible breakout star this season, particularly playing half his games in the very left-handed hitter friendly minor league park the Rays will call home this year.  Adding to that outfield mix is first round pick Brenton Doyle who also plays in a hitter friendly environment in Denver.  Take it to the bank that the Diamond Dogs will lead the league in stolen bases.  These projections show a bit of a step backwards in batting average though.  Overall, it is a solid offensive squad.  The pitching staff will need to exceed the projections for them to take another step forward in 2025.  The Dogs did not use any of their early draft capital on the rotation.  The good news though is that they are entering this campaign in far healthier form.  Returning after missing all of 2024 is Sandy Alcantara.  He figures to pick up right where he left off in 2023 as the ace of this staff.  Jack Flaherty is the one new piece to the rotation and has the next best projections behind Alcantara.  Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are solid veterans, but not star producers at this stage of their careers.  The Dogs could really use breakout seasons from one or both of Shane Baz and Mitch Keller to raise the ceiling of this staff.  The bullpen figures to be one of the league’s best again after topping the league in saves a year ago.  Josh Hader and Ryan Helsley are back to lead the way, while Ryan Pressley figures to return to a closing role now that he is no longer a teammate of Hader’s in real life.  Although the final projection is for the Diamond Dogs to drop a couple places in the standings this season, I would still consider this an arrow up franchise that just needs to get better starting pitching in order to reach contender status.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Diamond Dogs, Jackalope | No Comments »

Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

March 9th, 2025 by Kevin

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The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he’s been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year’s draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year’s ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of ’24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn’t make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren’t quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6’7″ frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn’t make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with ’24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn’t debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year’s squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet’s profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year’s draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet’s first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he’s been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year’s draft.  Hopefully we’ll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Diamond Dogs, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Ohtani Creates 50/50 Club

November 26th, 2024 by Kevin

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Normally, when you put up a statline of a .322 batting average with 58 home runs and 144 runs batted in, you would be a shoe-in for the league’s Most Valuable Player award. But this year, that was not nearly enough for Aaron Judge to win his second DTBL MVP award. Bobby Witt and Jose Ramirez also had seasons that would have won them the award in many other years. In 2024, however, there was another player who had a truly historic season. Shohei Ohtani became the first member of the 50/50 Club. Prior to this year, no DTBL player with at least 50 home runs had stolen as many as 25 bases. Ohtani more than doubled that, finishing with 59 steals to go along with his 54 home runs. The Moonshiners versatile slugger is the 2024 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

Ohtani filled up the league leaderboard this season. His .310 average ranked fifth. He led the league with 144 runs scored. The 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases and 130 runs batted in all ranked second. His 16.4 Batting PAR lapped the field and ranks second in all calculated seasons since 2005, trailing only Ronald Acuna Jr’s MVP winning campaign from last year. In both Acuna and Ohtani’s situations, the stolen base component of PAR has been wildly inflated the past two seasons since steals have exploded across the league since the introduction of the pitch clock and other rules changes in 2023. However, by any reasonable measure, they were still two of the best seasons this league has ever seen. Ohtani and Judge became the 25th and 26th players in league history to hit the 50 home run plateau. Before Ohtani this year, the highest stolen base total among that group was Alex Rodriguez with just 24 in 2007. On the other side of the equation, there have been 51 players to steal at least 50 bases in a season. The only other player to pair that with more than 30 home runs was Acuna last year. Truly unprecedented stuff from Ohtani this year. I guess he took full advantage of his year off from pitching after his second major elbow surgery last fall.

When the Moonshiners drafted Ohtani with the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft, what his future would hold in this league was a very open question. While they opted to use him as a hitter in 2019, most believed his future was brightest on the mound. To date, he has only pitched in one fateful game for the Moonshiners before being shut down from pitching for the remainder of the shortened 2020 season. Since then, he has been a mainstay in the Moonshiners lineup and would appear to have far more value at that spot moving forward as well. He has been a DTBL All-Star the past four seasons. 2021 had been the best season of his career prior to this one. In that season, he slugged 46 home runs with 26 steals, but with a much more pedestrian .257 batting average. It earned him a second place finish in that year’s MVP vote, behind his Moonshiners teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This year, Ohtani and Guerrero once again teamed up to lead a much improved Moonshiners offense. They finished a distant second place to the Mavericks in the overall standings, which was a nice bounce back after a disappointing 2023. As an aside, that 2019 DTBL Draft is looking like an all-timer in this league’s history. Ohtani fell to the fourth pick, but two of the players chosen ahead of him are no slouches either: Acuna and Juan Soto.

The MVP vote largely came down to how much weight people put into the Batting PAR stat, as Ohtani blew away the competition there. But as I have stated a few times, stolen bases are overvalued in that figure right now. So there was a decent case to be made for other players as well, most notably Mavericks slugger Aaron Judge. In the end, Ohtani received nine of the ten first place votes and ranked second on the other ballot for a total of 97 points. Meanwhile, Judge’s historic season in its own right that led to him winning the American League MVP placed him second in this vote. His votes were scattered all over the place though: one first, six seconds, two thirds and a fourth for 65 total points. He will have to wait for another year to win his second league MVP. While Ohtani entered a class of his own in the power/speed departments, Bobby Witt Jr and Jose Ramirez were in pretty impressive territory as well, with both joining the 30/30 Club. Witt, the Mavericks young superstar shortstop, won the batting title with a .332 average to go along with his 32 homers and 31 steals. He and Judge combined to form one of the most impressive offensive teammate partnerships this league has ever seen, and were a major reason why the Mavericks absolutely dominated the league in batting points. Witt received a pair of second place votes and 42 total points. Finishing right behind him is Komodos third baseman Ramirez. Ramirez continues to be the most consistently dominant offensive player in the league. He has hit a minimum of 20 home runs with 20 stolen bases in every season of his DTBL career except for the pandemic shortened 2020 and his rookie year of 2017 when he came up three steals short. This season, he had arguably the best season of his career, tying his career high with 39 home runs and setting a new personal high with 41 steals. Ramirez has been so consistent that he is often overlooked come MVP time. This is the fourth time he has finished in fourth place for the award, and never higher than that. He received one second place vote and 40 total points. There was a pretty big drop-off after those four. Diamond Dogs Rookie of the Year winning Elly De La Cruz rounds out the top five. His impressive rookie campaign earned him fifth place votes on eight of the ten ballots.

Click here to view the full voting results.

That brings an end to the 2024 DTBL awards announcements.  I do still owe Marc an article to document his dominant championship season, so I intend to do that sometime soon.  I hope you have a great Thanksgiving!

Posted in Awards, Moonshiners | No Comments »

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