DTBL News

Author: Kevin

  • Three Near Misses


    The Kings winning the championship by the narrowest of margins, a year after finishing dead last, was a pretty good story in and of itself. But even if things had turned out differently, we were pretty much guaranteed to have a compelling narrative on our hands with this year’s champion. There were the Demigods, still looking for their first ever league title, dealing with the tragic loss of their star pitcher. Then there were the Choppers, who have quietly been among the better teams in the league the past four years, but hadn’t come particularly close to winning it all since their last championship 17 years ago. Finally, there were the Mavericks, who have probably been the league’s best franchise the past five years but have somehow not won a championship in a decade. In the end, these three teams fell painfully short of their ultimate goal.

    This could have, maybe even should have been the Demigods big moment. As I already outlined in the Kings championship article, the Demigods very well could have won their first DTBL championship had they not suffered the ultimate loss with a week left in the season when their young phenom pitcher, Jose Fernandez, was killed in an accident. One more win would have elevated the Demigods to co-championship status and one fewer win for the Kings would have given the Demigods the outright crown. But there were other ways in which this appeared to be the Demigods year to win as well. In the summer months, they were by far the most balanced team in the league. While the Kings were dealing with a ton of injuries and a struggling pitching staff and the Mavericks were basically playing two or three pitchers short, it was the Demigods who were near the top of the league in both batting and pitching points.

    As has been the case with the Demigods for several years now, their strength was their lack of weaknesses. Jose Altuve is probably the only player on their team who will receive MVP consideration, but the list of positive offensive contributors is long. Freddie Freeman, David Ortiz, Francisco Lindor and Matt Kemp (?!) were some of their top hitters. A late season surge (and Kings collapse) gave them the league lead in average, home runs and RBI. They finished just one point behind the Darkhorses for most batting points in the league. On the pitching side, they were also near the top of the league despite finishing a distant last in saves. Their rotation was as good as anybody’s, led by Fernandez, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto. Veterans Cole Hamels and John Lackey were pretty good on the back-end of that rotation as well. That’s five pitchers who accumulated 5+ PAR. No other team had more than three.

    The Choppers ultimately fell short of their first championship season in 17 years. But this was easily their best effort since then. It was their fourth straight season finishing in the top four of the standings, but their smallest margin of defeat since their championship in 1999. They finished 2 1/2 points behind the Kings. The last time they finished fewer than nine points off the lead was way back 2001. But this wasn’t just a matter of keeping it close. With just a week left in the season, they found themselves in a first place tie with the Demigods. Unfortunately for them, they were unable to put together a great final week to win it all.

    There are a lot of similarities between the Choppers and Demigods. The Choppers also had a solid all-around team with few weaknesses. They don’t have an obvious MVP candidate, but do have plenty of hitters who had really good years. Perhaps first on that list would be Anthony Rizzo. Mark Trumbo easily led the league in home runs with 47. D.J. LeMahieu sat the final weekend of the season to preserve his NL (and DTBL) batting title, but that wasn’t particularly helpful for the Choppers. Finally, the veteran trio of Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols and Dustin Pedroia all had very productive years for the Choppers as well. The pitching staff was really the strength of the Choppers though. They finished just 1/2 point behind the ballyhooed Mavericks staff with 39 1/2 pitching points. The rotation was led by three of the games best southpaws: Jon Lester, Chris Sale and J.A. Happ (yes, Happ belongs in that discussion). The bullpen was decent, but saves was the only pitching category in which the Choppers did not finish in the top three.

    I’m not exactly sure what to say about this Mavericks season. On one hand, going into the season, they were expected to be one of the teams to beat, just like they are every year, thanks to their impeccable pitching staff. So not winning it all would have to be a bit of a disappointment. But then when you look at how many devastating injuries hit their staff, it was something of a miracle that they were even in the race until the end. When all was said and done, the fourth place finish was their lowest since 2011. But it was their third time in the past five years in which they finished within four points of a championship. Shockingly, it has now been ten years since their last DTBL title.

    The Mavericks entered this season staring at the possibility of having the following five pitchers anchor their rotation for most of the season: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, Yu Darvish and Taijuan Walker. All five of those guys, along with their top alternative Joe Ross, fought through signifcant injury problems and not one of them reached the 150 IP requirement for ERA and WHIP leaderboard qualification. A team that was supposed to have one of the best starting staffs ever finished the season with Anibal Sanchez and Anthony DeSclafani (a reliever) in their rotation. Despite all of that, they still led the league in pitching points, thanks to an untouchable bullpen of Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman. With just a little more potent offense, they could have won the league. But it was pretty much just a two man show on offense. Mike Trout and Manny Machado continue to be two of the best players in baseball, with Trout having his best all-around season since his DTBL rookie year. I guess Hanley Ramirez had a pretty good season as well. But that’s about it. The final fourth place finish was disappointing for the Mavericks, but they once again acquitted themselves as one of the league’s elite franchises.

    Sorry it took me so long to get to this article. Hopefully, I’ll actually have a chance to write about the rest of the teams before the post-season award season kicks off. So much more to come soon!

  • Kings Reign Again


    With three weeks to go in the season, the Kings held a 9 1/2 point lead over the Demigods and Mavericks and appeared to be headed to an uneventful coronation as league champions.  But then the wheels fell off.  Just two days later, the lead was down to five points.  With exactly two weeks remaining, it was cut down to a point.  On September 20, not only did they relinquish first place, but they found themselves all the way down to fourth and headed in the wrong direction.  However, the standings were so close in so many categories, that any of four teams had nearly identical odds of finishing on top.  When it was all said and done, the Kings picked up a much needed half point on the final day, which wound up being their margin of victory over the Demigods.  For a growing record sixth time, Kevin’s Kings are the DTBL Champions.

    This league has seen some pretty incredible finishes in its history and this season’s pennant race has to be near the top of that list.  However, the excitement that normally would have been felt in a four team sprint to the finish line had a bit of a somber tone this year as tragedy struck the baseball world with just a week to go in the season.  Miami Marlins and Demigods young ace Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident on September 25.  I don’t have much to add that hasn’t already been said about what a joy it was to watch Fernandez pitch and how deeply he will be missed by virtually all baseball fans.  Perhaps I will take some time to write some of my own thoughts about Fernandez during the off-season.  But for now, I would be remiss not to mention how major of an impact his passing had on this league’s title race.

    The Kings won the league by 1/2 point.  Although there were a whole bunch of categories that could have swung the title in a different direction, the place where the Kings gained their margin of victory on the final day was in wins.  Max Scherzer won his league high 20th game for the Kings that final afternoon, moving them out of a tie with the Mavericks and into a tie with the Moonshiners in that category.  Scherzer recorded the win, despite giving up five runs.  His opponent?  Fernandez’s Marlins.  Impossible to know for sure what the Marlins would have done with their rotation in the final week without the tragedy, but it is very possible that Fernandez could have been Scherzer’s opponent that day.  And he probably would not have given up five runs, since he rarely ever did.  One more win for Fernandez in either of two potential starts in the final week would have given the Demigods their first ever DTBL Championship.

    So some of the thrill of victory was drained from the Kings, knowing things very well could have ended differently.  But the Kings are not undeserving champions.  They dominated the league for a good portion of the season, despite having to hang on by a thread down the stretch.  Oh, and how did I make it this far without mentioning that this same team finished dead last a year ago?  Believe it or not, this is not the first time a team has turned that trick in this league.  The Darkhorses won their first championship in 2007, a year after finishing at the bottom.  The Kings are just three years removed from their last title, but it was two pretty ugly seasons in between.

    Despite holding onto first place almost the entire year, it really was a roller coaster season for the Kings, particularly when you break things out between hitting and pitching.  They cruised to a large lead in the first half on the back of the league’s best offense (at the time).  On July 1, they held 47 of a possible 50 batting points, and had huge leads in the power categories.  Meanwhile, the pitching staff was average at best and was at the bottom of the league in ERA.  But then in July, the tables turned and the offense started to leak oil while the pitching staff was firing on all cylinders.  Although it wasn’t until September that they really started coughing up batting points, their leads in most offensive categories had been shrinking for months.  But fortunately for them, the pitching staff was awesome down the stretch and carried them home.  In the end, they finished second in the league in batting points, just one behind the Demigods, and third in pitching points, two behind the leading Mavericks.  So it was a very solid team in all phases, though not nearly as dominant as they once seemed.

    Two players led the way for the Kings and figure to be among the top candidates for the top two post-season awards:  Mookie Betts and Max Scherzer.  Each led the league in PAR, among hitters and pitchers respectively.  Betts had an all-around awesome season, hitting .318 with 31 homers, 113 RBI, 122 runs and 26 stolen bases.  He was on the top ten leaderboard in all of those categories, except homers.  He also led the Kings in those four categories and blew away the rest of his teammates in accumulating a 10.85 PAR.  Meanwhile, Scherzer was also in the top ten in four categories.  He led the league with 20 wins and 284 strikeouts.  His 0.97 WHIP ranked second and he was seventh in ERA at 2.96.  His season was right up there with another season in which he helped the Kings win a title, 2013, for tops of his career.  Without either of these players, the Kings would have had no chance.

    There were other important contributors too though, including some of their veteran stars who were mostly disappointing a year ago.  Robinson Cano may have had the best season of his impressive career, following two very pedestrian campaigns.  Similarly, Ian Desmond rebounded from a rough ’15 to become one of the most valuable middle infielders in the league once again (his final year as a shortstop in this leauge).  Jonathan LuCroy and Jay Bruce had much more productive, healthier seasons as well.  Carlos Gonzalez didn’t have one of his better years, but was a major contributor as well.  Finally, youngsters Carlos Correa and Gregory Polanco had good years too.

    On the pitching side, the other player besides Scherzer who was key to the Kings success was Justin Verlander.  Once considered the best pitcher in baseball, the past few years have been pretty rough for Verlander.  But this year, he appeared to be back to his old form, winning 16 games with 244 strikeouts, which were his highest marks in those categories since 2012.  Had the Kings not been so deplete of apparent talent last winter, Verlander may not have even been retained.  But fortunately for the Kings, he was still around for 2016.  The rest of the rotation was not very impressive, which just goes to show how great Scherzer and Verlander were to lead the Kings to 37.5 pitching points.  The bullpen led the league in saves, thanks mostly to Jeurys Familia and his league leading 51.  That was the fifth highest single season save total in league history and hasn’t been exceeded since 2004.  Francisco Rodriguez and Santiago Casilla racked up plenty of saves too, despite mediocre peripherals.

    So how does a team go from last place to first without making any major roster shakeups outside of the draft?  Well, first of all, the Kings were not your typical last place team a year ago.  As you may recall, the bottom six teams in the league were all within seven points of each other last year.  So the Kings weren’t really *that* bad in 2015.  The blueprint they used was to make smart draft choices while banking on veterans with proven track records to bounce back to career norms.  Perhaps a dangerous strategy if those veterans were truly over the hill, but in this case, their trust was rewarded.  And of course, as is the case for almost all champions, the Kings had a bit of luck on their side.  Not only because of several tight category battles going their way, but some major derailments suffered by other teams.  I’ll cover those in greater detail in my next article.

    The Kings have now won six DTBL Championships in 24 years, exactly one quarter of the league’s seasons.  No other franchise has won the league more than four times.  There are other franchises that have been more consistently among the league’s elites, but nobody has been better at winning it all.

    Coming up next, I’ll examine the three teams who came within an eyelash of stealing this title from the Kings.  All three had spectacular, fascinating seasons that came up just short.

  • Kings Lead Widens


    The Kings have been in first place for a majority of the season, but things were getting a little too close for comfort in early August as the Mavericks and Demigods were in hot pursuit.  They even briefly surrendered the top spot.  But in the last few weeks, they have built up a more comfortable lead once again.  As September hit, the lead was up to 9  1/2 points, though that has dropped down to 6 1/2 as of today.  The race is far from over, but the Kings are definitely in the driver’s seat.

    It has pretty much been a three team race since the All-Star break.  A month ago, the Demigods may have actually been the presumed favorite just because the Kings and Mavericks were fighting through some serious injury problems.  This is still a major problem for the Mavericks, who haven’t been able to field a full, healthy rotation since June.  The Kings injuries were mostly on the offensive side as they seemed to suffer a new ailment every day in late July.  But things have been patched up recently and they continue to field the league’s best offense.

    At first glance, the Kings simply don’t seem to have a championship caliber pitching staff.  But two of their long time aces have really stepped up of late:  Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  Those two guys have led the Kings into the top half of the league in pitching points, which seemed like an unreachable goal as recently as a month ago.  The Kings are still dead last in ERA, yet are in the top three of every other pitching category, which is a little strange to say the least.  But this pitching resurgence has pushed the Kings back up to the 80 point mark in the standings.  If they can hold onto that, they should be able to finish off the improbable worst to first turnaround.

    This race is far from over though.  The Kings are extremely vulnerable in a whole bunch of categories, especially on the pitching side.  The Demigods are the closest competition at the moment.  All year, they have looked like the most balanced team, and as mentioned earlier, some might have considered them the favorite when the Kings and Mavericks were losing players left and right.  The Demigods have possibly been the healthiest team in the league.  But now they need to go on a run to get back into the race for their first championship.

    Perhaps the team most worth watching in the final month is the Mavericks.  In some ways, it is quite remarkable that they are still in this race despite losing basically their entire rotation for significant portions of the season.  But the band is going to start coming back together this week as Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw are expected to make their returns from the disabled list.  It shouldn’t take long for the Mavericks to gain points in pitching categories with those two back in the lineup.

    Finally, the Choppers and Darkhorses aren’t completely eliminated yet, but will need to get hot in a hurry to get back in the race.  Four weeks to go.  Will the Kings become the DTBL’s first six time champion?  Here are the award winners for August 2016.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 18 (8/1 – 8/7) – Brandon Phillips, Cougars
    Week 19 (8/8 – 8/14) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars
    Week 20 (8/15 – 8/21) – Kris Bryant, Cougars
    Week 21 (8/22 – 8/28) – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 18 (8/1 – 8/7) – Kyle Hendricks, Moonshiners
    Week 19 (8/8 – 8/14) – Rick Porcello, Darkhorses
    Week 20 (8/15 – 8/21) – Ian Kennedy, Cougars
    Week 21 (8/22 – 8/28) – David Price, Naturals

    It was a weirdly strong month for players on the non-contending teams.  Not one of the weekly awards went to a player on one of the top four teams.  The last place Cougars had three different hitters and a pitcher take home weekly honors.  This carried over to the monthly awards as well, which were won by teammates from a non-contender.  Here are the DTBL monthly award winners for August 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Brian Dozier, Moonshiners
    .302 AVG, 13 HR, 27 RBI, 27 R, 3 SB, 3.23 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Kyle Hendricks, Moonshiners
    1.28 ERA, 0.780 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.36 PAR

    The month of August saw the Moonshiners creep up the standings a little bit, no longer in serious danger of finishing dead last for the first time in franchise history.  The August surge was largely due to the month’s top two players:  Brian Dozier and Kyle Hendricks.  Dozier is having a career year, already surpassing his previous season highs in home runs and RBI.  In August, he led the league in home runs with 13 and was near the top in RBI and runs, with 27 apiece.  The Moonshiners offense has been carried most of the season by their two second basemen, Dozier and Ian Kinsler.  A whole host of other hitters challenged for the monthly award, with Nolan Arenado as the closest competition.

    In an absolutely loaded rookie class, one player has gone largely overlooked, until now.  Kyle Hendricks has been the most surprising star of the Cubs magical season, making a run at Jake Arrieta for the title of ace of the staff.  He has unquestionably been the ace of the Moonshiners staff, a rotation containing former Cy Young winners Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and Dallas Keuchel.  Hendricks was the pretty clear winner of the August honor, but Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello had great months as well.

  • MLB Trade Recap


    The DTBL trade deadline is still a week and a half away (August 15). We have not seen any deadline activity yet, but that could certainly change. In the meantime, there were plenty of players changing teams in the days leading up to the MLB non-waiver deadline this past Monday afternoon. In fact, it would take way too long for me to analyze them all in this space. So instead, I’m going to focus on trades that involved players from the three teams who appear to be the top title contenders in this league this year. Could any of the MLB player movement create a major shakeup in the DTBL championship race?

    Let’s start with the biggest offensive name that changed teams this past week. Kings catcher Jonathan LuCroy opted to enact his limited no trade clause to veto an agreed upon deal that would have sent him to Cleveland. Instead, he was later traded to Texas. Either would have probably been a good outcome for the Kings, but having him inserted into the middle of the Rangers potent lineup and into the hitters paradise of Arlington, Texas could certainly pay huge dividends. This is especially nice for the Kings since he will get to play a full season in Texas next year as well.

    LuCroy wasn’t the only Kings slugger on the move. Outfielder Jay Bruce was dealt to the Mets. Although he is moving to a much better team, I’d call this a net loss for the Kings. He’ll have a much tougher time hitting home runs in Citi Field compared to the bandbox in Cincinnati. Also, the Mets offense has been pretty anemic of late, which could hamper his chances of remaining one of the league’s top run producers. Josh Reddick is another Kings hitter who was traded, from Oakland to the Dodgers. I wouldn’t expect that to be a needle mover though.

    The second place Demigods had a few guys change teams as well. Carlos Beltran is joining LuCroy in Texas. He will no longer benefit from the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium, but again, moving into the Rangers lineup is a good thing. The enigmatic Matt Kemp was shipped from San Diego to Atlanta in one of the more curious deadline deals. He has actually had a pretty respectable season so far, but there is no telling what this change of scenery will do for him.

    There were a bunch of moving pieces in the Demigods bullpen. Will Smith was traded from Milwaukee to San Francisco and Tyler Clippard moved from Arizona back to his original franchise, the Yankees. I don’t have much to say about those two moves. More interesting is how a trade that didn’t involve a Demigods player will impact their bullpen. Mark Melancon is gone from Pittsburgh, leaving the closing job to Tony Watson for now. So that’s nice, although he is now the only Demigods closer with Trevor Rosenthal losing his job before hitting the DL. The Demigods currently sit 30 saves behind the next worst team. So Watson getting save opportunities is nice, but won’t have any impact on their league standing.

    Finally, we have the Mavericks. Only two of their players were traded, but they were two big ones: Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. Really, the bullpen has been the main reason why the Mavericks have remained in the title race despite being absolutely decimated by injuries, especially to their vaunted starting rotation. The Yankees trio of Miller, Chapman and Dellin Betances put up staggering numbers, despite only one of them actually getting to close games. But now, they could be even better apart. Chapman will continue to get loads of save opportunities with the Cubs while Betances inherits that role for the Yankees. Miller probably won’t get many save opportunities in Cleveland, but you never know. There is definitely an opportunity for the Mavericks to pick up a few key points in the saves category down the stretch while their relievers continue to carry the staff in basically every pitching category, except wins. This remains the best bullpen in the league, by far.

    We’ll have to wait and see if any DTBL trades are made in the next 10 days. In the meantime, here are the award winners for July 2016.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 13 (6/27 – 7/3) – Kris Bryant, Cougars
    Week 14 (7/4 – 7/10) – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
    Week 15 (7/11 – 7/17) – Khris Davis, Moonshiners
    Week 16 (7/18 – 7/24) – Hanley Ramirez, Mavericks
    Week 17 (7/25 – 7/31) – Mitch Moreland, Gators

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 13 (6/27 – 7/3) – Scott Kazmir, Gators
    Week 14 (7/4 – 7/10) – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
    Week 15 (7/11 – 7/17) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
    Week 16 (7/18 – 7/24) – Scott Kazmir, Gators
    Week 17 (7/25 – 7/31) – Justin Verlander, Kings

    Scott Kazmir picked up two weekly awards in July, which would seemingly make him the top candidate for the monthly award, although the first week was actually split between June and July. But in the end, a pair of Kings won this month’s hand. Here are the monthly award winners for July 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Mookie Betts, Kings
    .368 AVG, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 15 R, 5 SB, 1.68 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Justin Verlander, Kings
    1.69 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 48 K, 3.34 PAR

    Those numbers from Mookie Betts are solid, but don’t come anywhere near the usual level of our monthly award winners. It was a very unusual month on the hitting side. A ton of guys put up very good numbers in July, but nobody was truly spectacular. Betts’ 1.68 PAR is about half of what it usually takes to win this award. Jose Altuve, Albert Pujols and Josh Donaldson were all just a hair behind Betts, with PARs over 1.6. On my first calculation, the award actually was set to go to Justin Turner. However, he was not active until the 4th of July, so I had to recalculate his total. Missing those three days dropped him out of the top five.

    Justin Verlander, on the other hand, won the pitching award pretty easily. It was by far the best month he has had in several years. He led the league with 48 strikeouts while maintaining an excellent ERA and WHIP with four wins. He has managed to move into the top ten of the league in PAR for the season, despite a pretty shaky start to the season. A distant second and third were Stephen Strasburg and J.A. Happ. Strasburg’s month was especially impressive considering he started it on the DL. Verlander is the second straight Kings pitcher to take home the monthly pitching award (Max Scherzer in June), which is interesting since the Kings have been holding onto first place despite a decisively mediocre pitching staff.

  • National By A Dozen


    The 23rd installment of the DTBL All-Star Game was practically over as soon as it started. The National Division scored five runs in the bottom of the first on their way to a blowout 12-0 victory over the American Division at In-N-Out Park, home of David’s Darkhorses. National hitters knocked around the American pitchers, while the National pitchers were nearly untouchable. The winning side knocked 17 hits while allowing just one infield single. The National All-Stars hit four home runs on their way to that easy win. Xander Bogaerts was named the game’s Most Valuable Player.

    Jake Arrieta got the start on the mound for the American Division, but it did not go well for him. After retiring the first hitter he faced in the bottom of the first, he then surrendered five consecutive singles, highlighted by a two run hit by Manny Machado. After that streak was halted with a strikeout, Xander Bogaerts added to Arrieta’s troubles with another two run single. Following the seventh single of the inning, Arrieta was mercifully relieved. Unfortunately for the American All-Stars, the pitchers that followed were only slightly more successful.

    Mike Trout led off the bottom of the second with the game’s first home run, off of Noah Syndergaard. But it was the fifth inning when balls really started flying. It was a rough game for Cubs pitchers as Jon Lester was the victim of the damage done in the fifth. Following a Daniel Murphy double, George Springer hit a 453 foot bomb to left to score a pair. Bogaerts immediately followed with a solo shot to left. Two batters later, Bryce Harper added a run-scoring single to make it 10-0 after five. Had this been a Little League game, the mercy rule would have been enacted at that time. The National All-Stars weren’t quite done scoring though. Two more hits in the sixth led to another run. Then, in the bottom of the seventh, Harper struck again with a solo bomb to center.

    Meanwhile, while National hitters were teeing off, their pitchers were in complete control. National starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw was very impressive. He pitched two perfect innings, striking out five of the six hitters he faced. It was just the start of a complete whiff-fest for the American hitters. In total, the National pitchers recorded 19 strikeouts. They struck out the side three times and recorded at least two strikeouts in all but two innings. The American Division tallied just a single hit, an infield knock by Corey Seager. Besides Kershaw, the other impressive pitching performances for the National squad included Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman.

    In the end, Bogaerts was named the Most Valuable Player with his two hits and three runs driven in. There were plenty of other candidates though, including Harper, Trout, Murphy, Springer and Kershaw. Kershaw picked up the victory while Arrieta took the loss.

    Blowouts are nothing new to the DTBL All-Star Game. While recent editions have mostly featured close pitching duels, this game was almost a mirror image of the 2012 game, except with the other side winning. The American Division won that ’12 game by a score of 12-1. The National Division broke a two year losing streak, having lost the last two games by single runs.

    Click here to view the game’s full box score.

    Thanks to Mike for filling in for Jay as the American Division manager and to Marc for making the National roster decisions and sending me instructions to follow while playing out the game. The second half of the season is well underway. It appears, unlike last year, that we are in for a fun title race. Enjoy the rest of the summer!

  • 2016 DTBL All-Stars


    Sorry for the delay, but I’m finally ready to announce the 2016 DTBL All-Stars.  The 23rd annual DTBL All-Star Game will be played at a date and time to be determined, probably in the next week or so.  It took me a while to find someone who was able to take on the manager duties for the American Division.  Mike has graciously agreed to do so.  Marc will be calling the shots for the National Division.  In addition to managing the game, they were also responsible for breaking any ties in the voting and for selecting the final player for each roster.  The Darkhorses will be the host team.

    In a bit of a departure from recent seasons, it was the voting at offensive positions that was particularly interesting to see which deserving players would be left out.  Most notably, middle infield for the National Division was as loaded as I’ve ever seen 2B/SS for a division in a given year.  Besides the three players listed below, left off the roster were the Kings duo of Robinson Cano and Ian Desmond.  Jay Bruce is a third King offensive star who didn’t make the cut.  In the American Division, Miguel Cabrera garnered just two votes at a loaded 1B/3B group.

    But enough about the guys who didn’t make it.  Here are the 2016 DTBL All-Stars.

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope (1st All-Star appearance)
    • Catcher – Wilson Ramos, Choppers (1st)
    • First Base – Anthony Rizzo, Choppers (2nd)
    • Second Base – Ian Kinsler, Moonshiners (5th)
    • Third Base – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope (3rd)
    • Shortstop – Corey Seager, Gators (1st)
    • Outfield – Nelson Cruz, Gators (4th)
    • Outfield – Wil Myers, Gators (1st)
    • Outfield – Mark Trumbo, Choppers (3rd)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Salvador Perez, Gators (1st)
    • First Base – Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope (4th)
    • Second Base – Rougned Odor, Naturals (1st)
    • Third Base – Nolan Arenado, Naturals (2nd)
    • Outfield – Starling Marte, Gators (2nd)
    • Outfield – Ryan Braun, Jackalope (7th)
    • Pitcher – Noah Syndergaard, Naturals (1st)
    • Pitcher – Jon Lester, Choppers (3rd)
    • Pitcher – Danny Salazar, Choppers (1st)
    • Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers (5th)
    • Relief Pitcher – Zach Britton, Gators (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Fernando Rodney, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Mark Melancon, Jackalope (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Roberto Osuna, Moonshiners (1st)

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (6th)
    • Catcher – Buster Posey, Demigods (5th)
    • First Base – Edwin Encarnacion, Darkhorses (4th)
    • Second Base – Jose Altuve, Demigods (3rd)
    • Third Base – Manny Machado, Mavericks (2nd)
    • Shortstop – Xander Bogaerts, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Outfield – Mookie Betts, Kings (1st)
    • Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings (5th)
    • Outfield – Mike Trout, Mavericks (5th)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Jonathan LuCroy, Kings (2nd)
    • First Base – David Ortiz, Demigods (6th)
    • Second Base – Daniel Murphy, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Third Base – Kris Bryant, Cougars (1st)
    • Outfield – George Springer, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Outfield – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses (2nd)
    • Pitcher – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars (4th)
    • Pitcher – Johnny Cueto, Demigods (2nd)
    • Pitcher – Max Scherzer, Kings (3rd)
    • Pitcher – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Kenley Jansen, Mavericks (3rd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Jeurys Familia, Kings (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Andrew Miller, Mavericks (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Aroldis Chapman, Mavericks (3rd)

    All-Stars per team:

    • 7 – Mavericks
    • 6 – Choppers, Gators
    • 5 – Darkhorses, Jackalope, Kings
    • 4 – Demigods
    • 3 – Moonshiners, Naturals
    • 2 – Cougars

    Paul Goldschmidt and David Ortiz were selected as the 23rd players for each roster.  There are 15 first time DTBL All-Stars, which is significantly fewer than last year, but does include some pretty exciting young stars like Corey Seager, Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant.  The most experienced All-Star participant will be Ryan Braun who was named to his seventh All-Star squad.  Here are the full voting results.  Much more All-Star Game coverage will be coming soon.

  • Baseball’s Power Surge


    For most of the past six seasons, pitchers have been dominating hitters more than at any other point in league history.  ERA, WHIP, AVG and HR have all been at record lows in recent years while strikeouts have skyrocketed.  However, there are signs that some of that is starting to change.  Since we are almost exactly at the halfway mark of the season, it is pretty easy to look at the league stats and see what pace we are on in certain categories.  One category sticks out in a big way:  home runs.  Through Friday, there have been exactly 1,500 home runs hit in the DTBL this season.  So we are on pace to reach approximately 3,000 homers for the season, a mark which has not been reached since 2004.  The pace in other offensive categories isn’t as dramatically different, but it still seems likely that 2016 will be the best offensive season since at least 2012 and possible a lot further back than that.

    Home runs are way up.  RBI and runs are up slightly.  But interestingly, batting average and WHIP are right in line with recent seasons and strikeouts continue to be at all time highs.  So what does this mean?  It appears to me that whatever offensive resurgence that is currently occurring in baseball is almost exclusively the result of the increase in home runs.  Looking outside of the DTBL to MLB as a whole, the current home run per team, per game rate is 1.15.  This is a huge increase over 1.01 from last season, and if it holds up, would be the highest season mark since 2000.  I’m not going to offer any theories for the increase in home runs.  But the affects have been dramatic.

    So the 2016 season is basically half over.  The Kings continue to lead, but they did not have a very good June.  The Demigods have had two great months in a row and are now just four points out of first.  The Mavericks are also in close striking distance, but are currently dealing with a whole host of injuries, most notably Clayton Kershaw, but several other key players as well.  The Darkhorses were probably the team that had the best month, moving into the top half of the standings.  Here are the award winners for June 2016.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) – Mookie Betts, Kings
    Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Xander Bogaerts, Darkhorses
    Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope
    Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) – Jose Fernandez, Demigods
    Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Jon Lester, Choppers
    Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Julio Teheran, Darkhorses
    Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) – Chris Sale, Choppers

    It was a good month for somewhat recent high draft picks.  With the exception of Lester and Sale, every player who earned a weekly honor in June was a first or second round pick in the ’14 or ’15 drafts.  All of the players above had excellent months, but interestingly, the monthly award winners are not among them.  Here are your monthly award winners for June 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Wil Myers, Gators
    .327 AVG, 11 HR, 33 RBI, 25 R, 5 SB, 3.47 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings
    1.96 ERA, 0.726 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 58 K, 3.81 PAR

    Wil Myers was once considered the top prospect in baseball by many.  The Gators bought into that potential, making him the second pick in the 2014 draft.  However, until this past month, his career had been underwhelming at best.  He’s on his third MLB team and now has a new position.  But it is quite possible that June was the beginning of him reaching that superstar potential.  He led the league in HR and RBI in June.  His 11 homers were more than he hit in any full season in his DTBL career to date.  The 3.47 PAR he accumulated in the month accounts for about 85% of his career total.  This was a fairly comfortable win for Myers, but Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones were his closest competition.

    On the other side, dominating months are nothing new for Max Scherzer.  He won this same award last May and has been in the running many other months as well.  In June, his numbers were impressive across the board, but especially in strikeouts (note:  his record tying 20 strikeout game was actually in May).  He struck out at least 10 in five of his six starts in June and the 58 for the month were nine more than any other pitcher.  He now leads the league in that category, obviously helped by Clayton Kershaw’s trip to the DL.  Scherzer did not win this honor easily.  Jon Lester was just a couple tenths of a point behind him.  Corey Kluber finished third.

  • Mavericks Stars Dominate May


    I’ve decided to make a slight alteration to my monthly awards posts.  Since those have become pretty much the only articles I ever write anymore, I’m going to make them a little more comprehensive, reviewing the league as a whole a little more and focusing less on the two players who won the monthly awards.  The exact contents of the monthly articles won’t be consistent, other than listing the weekly and monthly award winners.  Sometimes I’ll recap the month and take a temperature of the league title race.  But other times I may have a specific topic of interest to write about.  This month, it will be pretty basic:  a brief rundown of all ten teams at the 1/3 mark of the season.

    The story of the year so far in the DTBL has to be the Kings attempt to go from worst to first.  They’ve held the top spot in the standings for a couple weeks now and even had a double digit lead at one point.  Last year was a bit of an aberration from the usually strong Kings, but I’m not sure anyone saw this coming.  The offense has been the best in the league, but the pitching staff has been the huge surprise.  What looked like a debilitating weakness, their staff is actually above average so far.  Jeff Samardzija and Aaron Nola have been especially key additions.

    The Kings have plenty of company near the top of the league though.  Unsurprisingly, the Mavericks have the best pitching staff in the league.  They are dominating everyone in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, to the point where their staff would really need to fall apart for them not to bank those 30 points.  As you’ll see in a bit, May was an especially strong month for the Mavericks, led by their two biggest stars.  The three other teams in the top half of the standings are a little more balanced between hitting and pitching compared to the Kings and Mavericks.  The Choppers have had a really strong year on both sides of the ledger.  The Demigods may have been the best team in the league in May (I should probably put numbers to this at some point), thanks in no small part to the return of Jose Fernandez to the ranks of the elite pitchers in baseball.  Besides the Kings, the next most positively surprising team has to be the Gators who have been in striking distance of first place all season so far.  All of these five teams should feel pretty good about their current standing.

    On the other hand, the other five teams are surely disappointed with how things are going so far in 2016.  The Jackalope were due for regression after their magical 2015, but 25 points out of the lead through two months was certainly unexpected.  Some of it can be blamed on injuries to key players, but there are teams above them with even more injured guys.  Obviously, this team has the talent to get back into the race in a hurry.  The Darkhorses are having a great season with the bats, but their pitching staff has been woeful, currently sitting at just 10 points.  That will need to improve soon.  The Naturals, usually one of the best offensive teams in the league, have certainly not been that thus far.  Nolan Arenado is doing his part, but he could use some help.  The Moonshiners have had a rough go of it with the bats too, but their pitching staff has also taken some huge steps backwards, most notably Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke.  Now add the misery of Felix Hernandez landing on the DL.  Finally, not much has gone right for the Cougars in the first two months.  They have been entrenched in last place for several weeks now.

    Here are the weekly and monthly award winners for May 2016.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 5 (5/2 – 5/8) – Robinson Cano, Kings
    Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15) – Todd Frazier, Darkhorses
    Week 7 (5/16 – 5/22) – Mike Trout, Mavericks
    Week 8 (5/23 – 5/29) – Joe Mauer, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 5 (5/2 – 5/8) – Jose Quintana, Gators
    Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    Week 7 (5/16 – 5/22) – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
    Week 8 (5/23 – 5/29) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

    Week 6 exposed a flaw in my code for awarding the weekly honors.  For both batters and pitchers, I had to manually change it to the players listed above because my code had awarded two players who were just activated for the upcoming week and were not actually on the active roster for the week they would have won:  Jackie Bradley Jr. and Jose Fernandez.  Interestingly, both would have been strong contenders for the monthly awards too had they actually spent the entire month on active rosters.  But here are the two players who did win the awards for May 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Mike Trout, Mavericks
    .340 AVG, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 26 R, 5 SB, 2.86 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    0.91 ERA, 0.523 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 65 K, 5.69 PAR

    After a somewhat pedestrian first month, by his standards, Mike Trout was back to his usual form in May.  He did not lead the league in any single category, but was near the top in all five.  Perhaps most encouraging were the five stolen bases, which is the same number he stole in the final five months of 2015.  There were a whole bunch of players within striking distance of this honor, with Ben Zobrist and Mookie Betts being the two closest.  Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw lapped the field on the pitching side.  He is the first player (pitcher or batter) to surpass a 5.0 PAR in a month since I started tracking these monthly numbers last year.  All of his May numbers are insane, but especially the 65/2 K/BB ratio.  He had three more wins than walks in May!  Jose Fernandez actually had the second highest PAR for the month, but as I mentioned above, he was not on the active roster for all of that time, so runner-up honors go to Madison Bumgarner who would have had a strong case for this award with his May numbers in almost any other month.

     

  • Players of the Month: April


    Yes, I am continuing last year’s feature of naming a DTBL Batter and Pitcher of the Month following each month of the season.  Yes, we are more than a third of the way through May already.  No, I haven’t announced the April winners yet.  No, I don’t have a particularly good excuse for my tardiness.  Away we go…

    As a reminder, these Players of the Month selections are not subjective.  I am simply calculating each player’s PAR for the month and giving the awards to the batter and pitcher who led the league in that category.  I will also use these monthly posts to run down the list of players who won the weekly honors, which are also given to the players with the highest PAR during that week.

    Although the 2016 season is still quite young, it does seem fairly clear that we will not have a repeat of last season with one team running away from the competition right from the start.  April saw a bunch of teams swap the top spots in the standings.  At the end of the month, the top half of the standings looked like a bit of a flashback to the early years of the league more so than recent seasons.  The Choppers finished the month in first place, with the Gators and Kings in the mix as well.  The defending champion Jackalope appear to be quite strong again and the Mavericks are right there as usual.  As for individual player performances, April was dominated by a number of players.  Before we get to the best players of the month, here are the weekly award winners:

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars
    Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Welington Castillo, Gators
    Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) – Victor Martinez, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Chris Sale, Choppers
    Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Drew Smyly, Moonshiners
    Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

    There are some pretty surprising names on that list of hitters.  But the one of them who won the monthly award is not hard to identify.  Kershaw won half of the weekly pitching honors, but was edged out for the monthly award.  Here are the award winners for April 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    .286 AVG, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 16 R, 5 SB, 2.17 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Chris Sale, Choppers
    1.66 ERA, 0.684 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 32 K, 3.41 PAR

    Harper, the reigning NL MVP, picked up right where he left off last season.  He actually faded a bit in the final week of April and almost lost this honor as a result.  But his first three weeks were simply awesome.  He finished April tied for the league lead in RBI and one behind the leader in home runs.  His five steals were just one short of his full season total in 2015.  Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado also had great Aprils and I believe both passed Harper in PAR on the first day of May.

    Early in 2016, Chris Sale’s strikeouts are down a bit.  But the rest of his numbers are as good or better than ever.  He won every game he started in April and led the league in both wins and WHIP.  His numbers were nearly identical to his crosstown counterpart, Jake Arrieta.  But Sale gets the nod for this award by finishing with a PAR that was a couple hundredths of a point higher.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part IV


    The way the Jackalope dominated the DTBL in 2015, it is no surprise they are the favorites to win the league again this year.  But a repeat of their 19 point victory seems extremely unlikely.  The projections certainly don’t point to that.  Yes, the Jackalope are projected to win the league again, but with 10 fewer points and just a 2 1/2 point cushion over the second place squad.  That team would be the Thunder Choppers, who have generally not been highly regarded in these pre-season projections.  But after a couple straight fourth place finishes, they are a team that definitely looks ready to contend.  Although these two teams are expected to finish fairly close to each other, they are built much differently.  The Jackalope are very strong across the board, while the Choppers have an elite pitching staff with an average offense.  While other teams will surely be in the discussion this season, it will be very interesting to see if these two are able to live up to expectations.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the 2016 standings.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd-T (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins – 1st (7th)
    • Saves – 1st (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Points – 2nd (4th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers finished a very respectable fourth place last year, but were not serious title contenders.  It was their third straight season in the top four, but in those years they never finished closer than nine points behind the champion.  So while their continued success is a positive, they certainly would like to be in the discussion for a league championship come September and hope to end their 17 year title drought.  For all the talk about the Mavericks pitching staff, it is the Choppers who actually top the pitching point projections.  They are expected to finish first or second in all five pitching categories.  And this is almost all on the shoulders of returning players.  They wound up keeping six starting pitchers and did not draft a single pitcher who is on their Opening Day roster.  That allowed them to solely focus on improving an offense that was one of the worst in the league last year.  Kyle Schwarber is the big name among the newcomers, but they brought in a bunch of solid veteran hitters as well.  For the offense to be above average, Schwarber and his Cubs teammate Anthony Rizzo will need to have great seasons.  But they probably don’t need to be much better than average with the sticks because their pitching staff is loaded.  Chris Sale is the number one guy, but they have five other very good starters:  Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Danny Salazar, Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka.  That is impressive depth.  The bullpen is strong as well, although I think the 2nd place projection in saves is slightly optimistic.  Craig Kimbrel is clearly their top bullpen guy.  This should be a very good year for the Choppers.  They may not be able to win it all, but they do appear to be the best bet to unseat the Jackalope.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 2nd (1st)
    • Saves – 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    It woudn’t be much fun if the Jackalope were expected to blow away the rest of the league again this year, so nice to see just a 2 1/2 point margin.  But make no mistake, they are clearly the favorites to win the DTBL again this year.  And that smaller gap between them and the rest of the league is not a sign of this being a weaker Jackalope squad.  It is just hard to have everything go your way like it did for this team a year ago.  They are still projected to be a top three hitting and pitching team.  No other team can legitimately claim to be one of the league’s best on both sides.  It isn’t just the returning players who give the Jackalope such high hopes.  They were able to reinforce their squad with a couple interesting additions in the draft:  third baseman Maikel Franco and pitcher Raisel Iglesias.  But the most important players are the same guys who carried them a year ago.  Reigning league MVP Josh Donaldson left today’s game early, but hopefully it wasn’t anything serious.  Paul Goldschmidt also happens to be one of the best players in baseball.  And don’t forget that they didn’t even get full years out of top slugger Giancarlo Stanton and solid hitter Anthony Rendon.  So there are some reasons to believe they could be even better in 2016.  The pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.  Jake Arrieta was the steal of the draft a year ago.  Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole join him to make up the best non-Mavericks top three in the league.  There is very little drop-off in the bullpen either.  Wade Davis moves into a full time closer role and Mark Melancon led the league in saves last season.  The Jackalope will attempt to become the first team to successfully defend their title since the Darkhorses finished up their four-peat in 2010.  It would be pretty shocking if they aren’t in the hunt to do just that.

    Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, there is a pretty healthy gap between the two teams at each end of the standings and the other six in the middle. The Jackalope and Choppers appear to be the teams to beat with the Demigods clearly being the third choice. Meanwhile, the Gators and Moonshiners are going to need to significantly outperform these numbers in order to sniff the top of the standings. But for the most part, anything could happen. Should be another fun season. Good luck to all!