DTBL News

Author: Kevin

  • 2020 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images The first part of the 2020 DTBL season preview covered a pair of teams that were dealt serious blows to their 2020 aspirations many months ago.  But today, we'll preview three teams that should probably feel pretty optimistic about their chances this season, for a variety of reasons.  First, a couple of these teams are projected to finish higher in the standings than they did a year ago.  All three appear to be relatively healthy heading into the season, despite some early COVID-19 scares.  With some exciting new faces on these rosters, gaping holes from a year ago have been filled as well.  While it may be hard to get fired up for a projected finish in the bottom half of the standings, these teams are absolutely championship contenders in a 60 game sprint.  Here are the teams projected to finish in sixth through eight places in the 2020 standings.

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (6th)

    • Home Runs - 10th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (7th)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (10th)

    • Wins - 6th (10th)

    • Saves - 10th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 6th (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (10th)

    • Total Points - 8th (10th)

    Summary:

    There is really no way to go but up for the Demigods after a disastrous 2019.  It was the worst season in franchise history, finishing dead last with just 19 standings points.  That season was an outlier in almost every respect.  They had finished in the top half of the standings the previous five years.  What had been one of the league's best offenses just one year prior suddenly fell to ninth, and a consistently above average pitching staff managed to finish last in all five pitching categories.  So what will it take to return to their usual form?  Adding Fernando Tatis with the first overall pick in the draft should fix a lot of weaknesses.  He joins Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve to make up what might be the best middle infield in the league.  So far, Freddie Freeman seems to have been the baseball player who suffered the worst symptoms from COVID-19.  Fortunately, he appears to be fully healthy now and should be ready to go soon.  Ketel Marte and Austin Meadows were among the few bright spots for the Demigods last year and should headline the outfield crew again.  Meadows is currently sidelined with coronavirus, but assuming he returns healthy, this group looks pretty decent too.  The projections show J.D. Martinez continuing to be an offensive force as well.  Pitching is where things get a little dicey.  Again, they can't possibly be any worse than last year.  Aaron Nola is clearly the staff ace and Max Fried has exciting upside.  You just don't know for sure what you are getting from anyone else.  Corey Kluber has been on the decline for a while and is now pitching in Texas.  Zac Gallen is an intriguing young arm though, and it will be interested to see how Kenta Maeda's return to the rotation goes in Minnesota.  The Demigods will look to their bullpen to rack up a lot of strikeouts, but probably not many saves.  Nobody on the roster is a projected closer to start the season.  Josh James could be pretty interesting if he winds up in the Astros rotation.  Expect the Demigods to prove last year was an aberration.  If they get off to a hot start, 2019 will be quickly forgotten.

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 10th (6th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (8th)

    • Wins - 7th (8th)

    • Saves - 3rd (7th)

    • Strike Outs - 9th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd-T (7th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 9th (8th)

    • Total Points - 7th (8th)

    Summary:

    These batting projections for the Komodos are quite interesting.  A team that finished near the bottom of the league in the power categories (HR, RBI) last year is now expected to be among the league's best.  And this is despite the fact that the only seemingly significant power addition to the roster was first round pick Yordan Alvarez.  Alvarez is indeed a major power addition, but this also may point to some underachieving from the roster in this regard last year.  Jose Ramirez definitely underachieved early last season, but returned to form in the second half.  He is one of the best power/speed players in all of baseball.  Cody Bellinger is one of the best players, period.  And then there are Joey Gallo and Nelson Cruz who also figure to be near the top of the leaderboard in the power categories.  So yeah, those projections actually make sense.  Maybe the one player who will be most important for the Komodos to improve upon last year's numbers, by staying healthy, is shortstop Corey Seager.  Rougned Odor was a sneaky good add to the infield as well, according to these projections.  Like the Demigods though, the success of the Komodos this year will depend on what they get from their pitching staff.  It was basically a one man show in their 2019 rotation with Walker Buehler being the only one to accumulate a positive PAR.  While he is a capable ace, he'll need some help this year.  Unfortunately, two of their other top starters, Jose Quintana and Jake Odorizzi, may not be ready to go on Opening Day (definitely not in Quintana's case).  The rest of the rotation will be filled with steady, but not spectacular veterans.  The bullpen looks to be very good though.  Kirby Yates and Aroldis Chapman give the Komodos two of the top closers in the game.  Brandon Workman was a nice addition to provide them with three guys likely to earn a lot of saves this season.  Dating back to their days as the Gators, these two franchises haven't finished higher than eighth place since 2010.  With an exciting offense to lean on, this could be the year that changes.

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (2nd)

    • Home Runs - 5th (2nd)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 4th (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 6th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (9th)

    • Wins - 4th (9th)

    • Saves - 4th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 5th (8th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (9th)

    • Total Points - 6th (6th)

    Summary:

    Now we come to what might be the most interesting set of projections in this entire series.  At first glance, a sixth place finish for a team that finished sixth last year doesn't seem particularly notable.  But look at that category breakdown.  The Cougars surprised many be compiling the second most batting points in the league in 2019.  They were unable to remain competitive though because their pitching staff really let them down.  And now we are seeing the exact opposite in these projections.  The Cougars are the first team covered in this series that appears to have a pretty strong pitching staff.  Yet they are expected to be dragged down by the hitters that carried them a year ago.  Two players who likely won't be responsible for a fall in batting points are middle infielders Gleyber Torres and Trevor Story.  Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suarez complete a pretty strong infield.  Where they may be a bit lacking in star power is in the outfield.  Tommy Pham has the highest PAR projection of that group, but that's at a modest 1.1.  This is a veteran group as well, so there might be limited upside.  The pairing of Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez behind the plate should be pretty good though.  The pitching staff should easily lead the Cougars to more pitching points this year.  Lucas Giolito joins Blake Snell to form a great, and relatively young, top of the rotation.  Sonny Gray experienced a career resurgence last year in Cincinnati.  The Cougars will hope for the same from Madison Bumgarner who will now be pitching in Arizona.  The bullpen is pretty intriguing as well.  Alex Colome is the veteran closer in the group, but Nick Anderson is probably the most exciting member.  The peripheral numbers indicate that he has a chance to become one of the next great relievers in the league.  If Hansel Robles proves last year wasn't a fluke, the Cougars could find themselves near the top of the league in saves.  There is a lot to like about this Cougars roster.  Some combination of last year's offensive output and these healthy projections for the pitching staff would make the Cougars a darkhorse contender in 2020.

  • 2020 Season Preview: Part I

    Embed from Getty Images We are now just days away from the start of the 2020 baseball season.  It has been nearly four long months since the season was originally scheduled to start and a whole lot has changed since.  From a DTBL perspective, we are about to start the most unpredictable season in league history.  For the first time since 1995, the league's third season, the MLB regular season won't be a full 162 games.  The '94-'95 labor stoppage brought the '94 season to a halt just past the 110 game mark for most teams and the '95 season started late and featured 144 games per team.  2020 is going to be a whole different ballgame though, with just 60 regular season games scheduled per team.  I wouldn't rule out any team from winning the league over such a short time frame.  And the margins within the statistical categories will be so small that teams will still be shifting several points on a nearly daily basis as the season draws to a close.

    Last year, we reached the 60 game mark around June 4.  At that time, the Darkhorses were in first place, with the Kings 1 1/2 points behind.  While those two teams did go on to finish in the top two spots, what is most interesting about the standings from that date is that six teams were within 10 points of first place and still would have been very much alive for the championship if the season had ended at that time.  Expect that to happen this year as well.  A majority of the teams will be very much alive in the closing weeks of the season.

    Besides the compact schedule, there are a bunch of other reasons why this figures to be the most unpredictable season in league history.  First, there is the very real and scary prospect of players continuing to contract COVID-19.  Hopefully the threat of that will be somewhat mitigated by the rigorous testing regime they are going through, but it would not be surprising to see many key players lose a significant chunk of their season if they test positive.  And then there are the players who have already opted out of playing this season and others could continue to do so as the season progresses.  Finally, with such a short ramp up period leading into the season, it wouldn't be surprising to see injury rates increase this year as well.

    So how do you go about predicting what is going to happen in such an unpredictable season?  Well, I'm going to stick to my usual method of previewing the season using projected stats and standings based on FanGraph's Depth Charts projections, which combine ZiPS and Steamer projections and adjust for expected playing time.  I initially grabbed these projections back in early March and computed the standings after the draft was completed.  But it didn't make sense to base my season projections on 162 game numbers, so I redid everything last week.  In the final article of this series, I will display the projected standings from both sets of numbers.  They are fairly similar, which makes sense since most players' projections haven't changed other than reducing their counting stat totals to about 37% of the original numbers.  But there are some players who now no longer have projections, including those who have suffered season ending injuries or opted out of the season in the past several months.

    There are too many grains of salt to count with these projections.  So I'm really just using this as a basis to go over each team and remind you who is on each roster, and perhaps using the projections to form a general impression of each team's strengths and weaknesses.  I stand by my comment above that I believe any of the ten teams could win the league this year.  But somebody has to be last in the projections.  Here are the two teams slated to finish in the bottom spots in the standings, who are both attempting to overcome huge blows to their pitching staffs.

    Ben's Beanballers

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (4th)

    • Home Runs - 8th (7th)

    • Runs Batted In - 6th (7th)

    • Runs Scored - 8th (6th)

    • Stolen Bases - 1st (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 9th (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (4th)

    • Wins - 10th (2nd)

    • Saves - 9th (2nd-T)

    • Strike Outs - 10th (4th)

    • Total Batting Points - 5th (4th-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (2nd)

    • Total Points - 10th (3rd)

    Summary:

    The league newcomers are projected to finish last in their inaugural campaign.  That would be a disappointing result considering the roster they inherited from the Naturals finished in third place last year.  But this is not the same team by any stretch.  No team has been hit harder by roster losses since March than the Beanballers.  First, staff ace Noah Syndergaard was lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery.  And then one of the players who would have been counted on to pick up the slack, David Price, opted out of playing this season.  Price is the most fantasy relevant player to opt out so far.  That's two huge losses to a pitching staff that had the second most points in the league in 2019, but is projected to have the fewest this year.  Without Syndergaard and Price, the Beanballers are going to need huge seasons from their remaining pitchers, most notably Mike Clevinger and Hyun-Jin Ryu.  The back of the rotation could be a problem though.  One wild card could be Carlos Martinez, who is expected to move into the Cardinals rotation and could provide a nice spark from a RP slot.  The bullpen does not figure to rack up many saves though.  Only Josh Hader enters the season as a likely closer.  While the pitching staff will need to significantly overachieve for the Beanballers to compete, the offense is more than capable.  Third baseman Nolan Arenado and shortstop Trea Turner have the best projections, but this is a deep group.  First round draft pick Bo Bichette adds another exciting option to their infield.  The outfield isn't quite as impressive, but if one of last year's biggest surprises, Jorge Soler, has another big year, the Beanballers figure to be in decent shape there too.  The one area where the Naturals are clearly among the league's top teams is speed.  Turner, Bichette and Victor Robles lead a group that should be near the top of the stolen bases category.  For the Beanballers sake, hopefully the early roster casualties won't continue to mount.  There is more than enough talent on this team to make this an exciting maiden voyage for the Beanballers.

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (7th)

    • Home Runs - 9th (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 10th (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 10th (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 8th (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (9th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 7th (6th)

    • Wins - 9th (7th)

    • Saves - 1st (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 10th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (6th)

    • Total Points - 9th (9th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers offense struggled mightily a year ago, which was largely why they fell all the way to ninth place, their worst finish in over a decade.  In the recently completed DTBL 2020 Sim, the Choppers actually led the league in runs scored.  But here we are with a projection for them to finish last in runs, RBI and total batting points.  Second overall draft pick Pete Alonso might be their best offensive player from day one.  There are a bunch of other guys who remain as question marks due to health entering this season.  Will Andrew McCutchen bounce back from his knee injury last year?  Will Anthony Rizzo's back cause him to miss time?  Willie Calhoun and Lourdes Gurriel are also dealing with injuries at the moment and D.J. LeMahieu just returned from a positive COVID-19 test.  Things don't look great for this offense entering the season, but hopefully this is just a short term blip.  On paper, the pitching staff looks much better.  But like the Beanballers, they are going to have to go through this season without their best pitcher.  Chris Sale succumbed to Tommy John surgery in March and won't be available until sometime in 2021.  They do have some interesting alternatives though.  First, Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer return to anchor the staff.  Second round draft pick Brandon Woodruff has a chance to be the best of the bunch.  And they took a late flier on intriguing rookie Mitch Keller.  The strength of the entire roster is the bullpen.  They are projected to lead the league in saves, with four guys slated to pick up a bulk of the opportunities for their MLB clubs:  Ken Giles, Craig Kimbrel, Joe Jimenez and Brandon Kintzler.  Despite these fairly bleak projections, I think the Choppers could be one of the teams that benefits the most from the shortened season, assuming the early health issues to their hitters don't linger.  This is largely a veteran squad that could be uniquely qualified to handle whatever is thrown at them this year, more so than a team full of youngsters.  Also, the loss of Chris Sale is less catastrophic in a shortened season than it would have been over six months.

  • DTBL Sim: Mavericks Win Title

    Embed from Getty Images
    The Mavericks were clearly the best team in the DTBL 2020 Sim league, nearly from the start of the season to the finish.  Yes, they trailed the Demigods by a couple games at the mid-season mark, but the underlying numbers pointed to them being the better team.  That certainly manifested itself in the second half when the Mavericks cruised out in front and won the regular season title by seven games.  But in a couple best-of-seven series against solid teams, anything can happen.  Yet the Mavericks continued to exert their strength throughout the Postseason.  They topped the Demigods in six games in the Semi-Finals and then dominated the Choppers in the World Series, finishing them off in five games.  Marc’s Mavericks are the DTBL 2020 Sim Champions.

    While it would have been tough to predict what to expect in such a sim league, the Mavericks winning it all is not a huge surprise.  What was surprising was the overall composition of the playoff field.  The Choppers and Demigods finished in ninth and tenth places in the DTBL in 2019.  They finished second and fourth in this league.  The Choppers numbers indicate that they may be better constructed for a real baseball setup than a fantasy league because they led the league in several areas that play no role in fantasy baseball.  They were #1 in all defensive metrics and in base running efficiency.  That said, they were a strong offensive team as well, leading the league in runs.  The Demigods were probably the league’s most overachieving team.  They rode that hot start to a playoff spot despite being below average in both run scored and runs allowed.  The fourth playoff qualifier, the Kings, were not a surprise postseason participant, but never really displayed any sort of dominance in this league.  They were simply an above average team in almost all aspects.

    Then there were the Mavericks, who were rode a deep lineup and easily the league’s best pitching staff to the regular season and World Series championships.  They finished second in Batting WAR and first in Pitching WAR, by a wide margin.  Their 3.60 team ERA was basically 7/10 of a run better than the next best team.  On the individual player front, the leaderboards were loaded with Mavericks.  Juan Soto and Mike Trout finished second and third in both WAR (7.1/6.4) and OPS (.930/.897).  Jack Flaherty led the league in ERA (2.36), strikeouts (257) and Pitching WAR (5.9).  Stephen Strasburg was top three in those categories as well and won more games than any other pitcher (19).  No team could match the Mavericks lineup and rotation depth.  Aaron Judge and Javy Baez are pretty scary bottom third of the order hitters.  And I don’t think Clayton Kershaw would have been all the way down in the fourth spot of any other team’s rotation.

    The Postseason played out to form with the favored teams winning all three series.  The Demigods did give the Mavericks a bit of a scare, winning Game 1 and forcing the series back to Maui where the Mavericks eventually finished it in an exciting Game 6 that went extra innings before Mike Trout hit a walk-off three run homer to send the Mavericks to the World Series.  The Kings/Choppers series also lasted six games and featured a couple wild ones.  The Choppers stole Game 2 by scoring six runs in the bottom of the 9th to shock the Kings 13-12.  Then they won a critical Game 4 by a score of 8-5 in 10 innings to tie up the series.  The Choppers would go on to win the next two to close out the series.  Bullpens struggled for both teams in this series, especially for the Kings.

    The World Series was pretty one sided on the whole, but did end with a couple exciting games.  The Mavericks cruised to victories in the first three games, each of which featured Mavericks starting pitchers stifling the Choppers offense.  Jack Flaherty, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Soroka were nearly untouchable.  The Choppers showed some life in Game 4, putting up 11 runs which was eight more than they had scored in the previous three games combined.  But it was back to pitching domination in Game 5, this time by both teams with Flaherty and Chris Sale throwing nearly identical seven inning gems.  The game was scoreless until the ninth inning when Eloy Jimenez hit a three run homer.  The Choppers rallied in the bottom half, but only pushed across one run, so the Mavericks won the decisive game 3-1.  Jimenez’s huge Game 5 homer was his fourth of the series.  He was named World Series MVP.

    Not surprisingly, the Mavericks were well represented among the full season award winners as well.  Jack Flaherty was the unanimous choice for the Cy Young award, with teammate Stephen Strasburg finishing second.  Kings outfielder Mookie Betts took the Most Valuable Player honor with the Mavericks trio of Juan Soto, Mike Trout and Flaherty all finishing in the top five as well.  Moonshiners LHP Brendan McKay might have been the most surprising star of the season.  He took home the Rookie of the Year award for his efforts.

    I hope you enjoyed following along with this sim the past four months.  It was no substitute for the real thing, but it was nice to have some baseball to digest during these difficult times.  Fortunately, it appears we will have some real fantasy baseball (how about that oxymoron?) to follow starting later this week.  With that, I will be kicking off my 2020 DTBL season preview articles tomorrow.

     

  • DTBL Sim: Mid-Season Review

    Embed from Getty Images We've reached the exact mid-point of the 2020 DTBL Sim regular season.  81 games down, 81 to go.  I thought I would use this milestone as an opportunity to review what we've seen so far.  Overall, I'm very pleased with the results.  I've enjoyed looking through the box scores each day and even occasionally playing out a game in front of me in OOTP.  It had been my only way of getting my baseball fix, until this week when ESPN starting airing live Korea Baseball Organization games.  Normally, I would have absolutely no interest in the KBO.  But there is nothing normal about our current way of life and I've been grateful to have been able to watch live baseball games.  Anyway, back to the DTBL sim.  I'm going to go over some general league-wide trends and then will do a quick review of each team's performance thus far.

    First, a little bit about how OOTP sims work, that goes beyond anything I described before the season started.  When a league is created in OOTP, it uses a set of league modifiers to influence the outcomes of the game sim engine.  Basically, this is a set of statistical outcomes that are expected throughout the course of the full season.  The primary set of numbers are:  AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, HBP, K and BABIP.  From those numbers, an expected triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) is computed.  I used the game's default settings for its MLB universe, which I believe are primarily based on the 2019 season.  The resulting expected triple slash line for this league is .252/.325/.435, which is nearly identical to 2019 MLB's .252/.323/.435.  There are also modifiers for things like groundball rate, pitcher stamina, base-running and defensive rates.  But I'm not totally sure I understand how all of those work, so I'm definitely not going to get into that here.  To sum it all up though, these modifiers are used by the sim engine to influence the results such that over the course of the full season, you should expect to see the league wide results come close to these numbers.  This means that the complete results are based on these modifiers, not the cumulative quality of the players within the game.  So a league filled with nothing but Mike Trout level hitters would produce relatively similar offensive results as a league filled with nothing but slap-hitters.  Thus, it is players' quality relative to their peers within this sim that influences how they perform in this game, not how they actually perform in a real MLB universe.  So it is safe to assume that *most* players will produce worse stat lines in this sim compared to the MLB sim I am concurrently running since there are far more lower quality players in the MLB sim.

    Getting back to that expected slash line of .252/.323/.435, you may wonder, how is that looking so far?  Well, as of today, the league-wide slash line is .248/.320/.429.  Of course, these numbers change daily and I know the league average was over .250 fairly recently.  So these results are pretty much in line with what I would expect.  But there is one stat that is a bit out of whack right now which is having an effect on other numbers as well:  strike out rate.  The current K% is 25.6%, which is pretty significantly higher than 2019 MLB's record-breaking mark of 23.0%.  I noticed very early on that strikeouts were well above what I expected and it hasn't really come down much since.  So this is something I will continue to monitor.  I expect the rate will eventually drop a bit, but at this point, I'm not certain.  Maybe there is something about the composition of this league full of power pitchers, with plenty of hitters who strike out a ton as well, that is causing the game to succumb to more than expected strikeouts.  But I'm not really sure.  I believe this is the primary culprit for scoring being down a bit from what I expected as well.  Teams are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is a little lower than MLB's 4.8 in 2019.  Not a huge difference though, so I don't consider this to be a problem.  Nor do I consider the strikeout rate to be a problem either.  More of a curiosity.

    As for the DTBL teams, it has been quite an unexpected season thus far.  First place is currently held by the Demigods, who of course finished dead last in our league a season ago.  It has been a tight race all season though.  At least half of the teams have held first place at some point.  All ten teams have winning percentages that fall between .400 and .600, so there are no extraordinarily great or terrible teams.  Even the teams at the bottom of the standings could get right back into the playoff mix with a hot streak.  As a reminder, the top four teams will make the playoffs.  Currently, those spots are occupied by the Demigods, Mavericks, Choppers and Kings.  But the other six teams are all within eight games of the Kings.  Let's go team-by-team to see how things are progressing.  I'll go in the order of the current standings.

    Demigods (48-33, 1st place) - Definitely the surprise of the league so far.  They are currently riding a six game winning streak and are 14-5 in June.  It has been a combination of good hitting and pitching as they rank 3rd and 2nd in runs scored and allowed.  Francisco Lindor is making a strong MVP case, second in the league in WAR at 3.4.  He is hitting .300 with a dozen homers and stolen bases.  The pitching staff has been solid, pretty much from top to bottom.  Corey Kluber leads the league with 11 wins (2 more than any other pitcher), but actually has the highest ERA of the rotation (4.71).  German Marquez and Aaron Nola have been great as well.

    Mavericks (46-35, 2nd place, 2 GB) - Statistically speaking, the Mavericks have probably been the league's best team to date.  They have the best pythag record, based on run difference.  They are second in runs scored and easily lead the way in fewest runs allowed and an impressive 3.74 staff ERA.  After getting off to a bit of a slow start, Mike Trout has resumed his usual status as the Mavericks best player with a 3.3 WAR.  Javy Baez and Manny Machado have each slugged 17 homers.  Jack Flaherty might be the front-runner for the Cy Young award.  He comfortably leads the league in ERA at 2.18 and is also the leader in strikeouts (137).  One question mark entering the season was how their very young bullpen would hold up.  So far, so good.  A.J. Puk, Dustin May and Michael Kopech have all been outstanding.

    Choppers (45-36, 3rd place, 3 GB) - After the Demigods, the Choppers have been the next most pleasant surprise.  They have held the top spot in the standings on several occasions.  If you have ever wondered how a team would play in Coors Field if it were located somewhere closer to sea level, this might be your answer.  The Choppers have the league's best offense, using the spacious outfield of their home park to lead the league in batting average and extra base hits despite being in the bottom half in home runs.  They have scored 34 more runs than any other team.  Pete Alonso and Anthony Rizzo have been the offensive stars.  The guy who has really been a surprise is Harrison Bader, who has 15 home runs and a respectable .252 average despite an alarming 124 strikeouts.  The pitching staff has held its own as well.  A healthy Chris Sale and Shane Bieber have anchored the staff.

    Kings (42-39, 4th place, 6 GB) - The final playoff spot is currently occupied by the two-time defending champs.  It has been a roller coaster season for the Kings who are now trying to steady the ship after a spectacular March and April, followed by a terrible May.  The offense has been a microcosm of the actual Kings results the past couple years:  a whole lot of Mookie Betts and not much else.  Betts leads the league in WAR (4.0), AVG (.337), SLG (.580), OPS (.967), 2B (28), RBI (57) and a couple other categories.  The only other Kings hitter who has been having a notably decent season is Marcus Semien.  The pitching staff has been pretty good, but not great.  Max Scherzer was awesome for the first month or so, but has been struggling a bit of late.  Justin Verlander has been disappointing.  Lance McCullers has probably been the second best Kings pitcher.

    Beanballers (41-40, 5th place, 7 GB) - The Beanballers have been steadily hovering around .500, keeping themselves in close striking distance of a playoff spot.  Jorge Soler is tied for the league lead in home runs with 20 and Trea Turner leads the way with 17 stolen bases.  Yoan Moncada and Nolan Arenado have been their best overall players, with Moncada moved over to his former position of second base to allow Arenado to man the hot corner.  Hyun-Jin Ryu has led the way on the pitching side, putting up numbers similar to his first half of 2019.  He has a 2.46 ERA and a WHIP below 1.0.  The Beanballers rank in the middle of almost every significant statistical category, both hitting and pitching.  A very average team, you could say, to this point.

    Cougars (39-42, 6th place, 9 GB) - At one point, it was the Cougars who were the league's biggest surprise.  But they have fallen on hard times of late, having lost eight straight and 17 out of 22.  They do still lead the league in home runs, but that lead has been shrinking as well.  Gleyber Torres has been their best player.  He leads the way among seven players with double digit home runs.  But it has been an all-or-nothing season for many of their hitters, including Kris Bryant who has a disappointing .211 average to go along with 16 bombs.  The pitching staff has been the bigger problem lately.  Blake Snell has been great (7-3, 2.62 ERA), but has gotten little help.  Sonny Gray did win Pitcher of the Month in May though.  Closer Nick Anderson is the only pitcher besides Snell with an ERA under 4.

    Darkhorses (37-44, 7th place-T, 11 GB) - The Darkhorses, on the other hand, have been trending up.  They got off to a disappointing start and found themselves in last place at times in April and May.  But they have now won six of their last seven series as the offense has sparked the improvement.  Eight of their nine regular starters have reached double digit home runs.  While no player has numbers that pop out, it has been a solid group effort.  Alex Bregman has 17 home runs and Brandon Lowe leads the team in WAR (2.2).  If they can get Christian Yelich back on track (.237, 1.2 WAR), this offense could be very dangerous in the second half.  The pitching staff, particularly the rotation, has been disappointing.  All of the starters, besides Patrick Corbin, have ERAs north of 5.0.  That includes Jacob deGrom, who shockingly has an ERA of 5.05.  Perhaps he has been a tad unlucky though as his FIP sits at 4.23.  The Darkhorses do not appear to be a very good defensive team, which probably isn't helping those pitching numbers.

    Komodos (37-44, 7th place-T, 11 GB) - It has been a rough season for the Komodos offense.  They rank dead last in almost every offensive category.  They are averaging a half run per game fewer than the next worst team.  Cody Bellinger has pretty much been the lone offensive bright spot, but even he might be considered a slight disappointment with just 11 homers for a player who you might expect to be a MVP candidate.  Fortunately for the Komodos, the pitching staff has been solid, allowing them to stay afloat.  Jose Quintana has been their ace with a 3.31 ERA.  Anibal Sanchez has surprisingly strong numbers too, leading the team with nine wins.  The bullpen has been very good as well.

    Moonshiners (36-45, 9th place, 12 GB) - The Moonshiners are just now starting to climb out of the hole that their pitching staff put them into early on this season.  The stats don't paint a pretty picture here as the Moonshiners rank ninth in runs scored and last in runs allowed.  But things have been getting a little better.  The 5.05 team ERA is pretty bad, but is better than it was a couple weeks ago.  The rotation has been a big problem.  40% of it consists of pitchers with ERAs over 6.00.  Opening Day starter Charlie Morton had arguably been the worst pitcher in the league until a few weeks ago.  Now he has some competition with a few of his teammates.  On a positive note, Kyle Hendricks has been solid and steady.  This is probably the league's worst defensive team, which also hurts the pitching numbers and the WAR totals for the hitters.  The team leader in WAR among position players is Rafael Devers at 1.6.

    Jackalope (34-47, 10th place, 14 GB) - Easy to say when referring to the last place team, but the Jackalope have been the biggest disappointment so far.  While maybe not one of the favorites, on paper, this looked like it could be a playoff team.  To be fair, they have been a bit unlucky with their record falling four games below the pythag mark.  But they just haven't been consistent enough on the mound or at the plate.  That's not to say it has all been bad though.  Ronald Acuna has been one of the best players in the league, on pace to challenge the 30/30 mark with 14 home runs and 15 steals.  Giancarlo Stanton is tied for the league lead with 20 home runs.  None of their pitchers have stood out though and Gerrit Cole has been notably disappointing with just five wins and a 4.91 ERA.  It has been a brutal June for the Jackalope as they are currently on a five game skid and have a 3-16 record in the month.  They'll need to get that turned around soon to get back into the playoff hunt.

    We'll get the second half of the season started tonight.  We're on pace to wrap up right around the time the MLB season could get started, under the most optimistic forecasts as of now, in early July.  But I can easily adjust the pace of the sims as the schedule dictates.  I hope you are all staying safe and healthy.  All the best to you.  And I hope you are enjoying this small distraction.

  • Filling the Baseball Void

    Embed from Getty Images First off, I hope you and your families are all doing well during these difficult times. The COVID-19 pandemic has no doubt affected us all, changing the way we go about our daily lives. While there are far more important things to worry about right now, the cessation of all sports has left a pretty gaping hole in my daily routine. That's exacerbated by the fact that I suddenly have a whole lot of free time on my hands. So I've come up with a plan to try and help fill that void.

    This Thursday was supposed to be MLB Opening Day and the start of our league's season. Since that has been delayed indefinitely, I have a plan to occupy some of that time before baseball returns. I am going to set up and simulate two separate seasons within the Out of the Park Baseball game. For those of you unfamiliar with OOTP, it is probably the best baseball simulation game ever created. I can't even begin to describe all of the features and customization options available in the game, so I'll recommend checking out their website if you are interested in learning more.  The latest version of the game was just released a few days ago.  I've been playing it practically non-stop since.  While I have bought every version of the game the past 15 years or so, I've been a very casual player the past decade, usually not purchasing the game until it is time to set up the DTBL All-Star Game each summer.  But this year will be much different.  I've already gotten my money's worth, and then some.  Enough of this infomercial for OOTP though.  Let's get to my plan.

    As I stated above, I am going to simulate two separate seasons within OOTP.  One is going to be a simulation of a real life MLB universe and the second will be configured for the DTBL.  I am inviting all of you to participate in the DTBL sim, if you so desire.  But first, let me describe the MLB sim.

    I am going to create a full MLB universe in OOTP, including all 30 MLB teams and their full minor league affiliates.  This is one of the default out-of-the-box options in OOTP.  It has a full roster set of real players with ratings that reflect their skills to an incredibly accurate degree.  I will keep pretty much all of the default settings in the game, which mimic MLB rules and regulations.  To give myself a little more to do, I am going to take full control of the White Sox organization while the other 29 teams will be AI controlled.  There will be trades, injuries, suspensions, promotions, demotions... you name it.  I will sim one day at a time, creating results for all of the games that were originally scheduled to occur on the given day.  So that means on Thursday, I will sim the games that were supposed to happen on MLB Opening Day.  I will then upload the results to our website so you can peruse all the reports, check out box scores, game logs, transaction logs, or whatever else might be of interest to you.  Curious how your favorite team and players did on a given day?  It will all be there.  I intend to continue this daily routine up until whenever the real MLB season begins.  At that time, I may continue the league at my own leisure, but will stop publicly reporting the results.

    The second sim is probably going to be of more interest to you.  I am going to create a DTBL game that is going to have each of our ten teams, more or less with our actual rosters.  The teams will have a full 162 game schedule in which they play the other nine teams 18 times each.  At the conclusion of the regular season, the top four teams will make the playoffs and play best-of-7 Semi-Finals before a best-of-7 World Series.  Normally, I'd prefer to limit the post-season to just two teams in a ten team league.  But since this is just for fun, I might as well keep more teams involved as long as possible.  And there is no actual prize for the simulation champion.

    I've already done most of the setup for this league.  I created the teams and set up an initial draft to place the players on the correct teams.  As soon as our real draft wraps up, I will complete this process.  Rosters are going to be 32 players:  a 26 man active roster and a six player reserve roster.  The reason why I decided to go beyond the 28 players that each of us will have at the conclusion of the real draft is because most teams are going to need more pitchers to fill a regular staff.  My assumption is that most teams will go with a 13 pitcher staff, which is probably a couple more pitchers than most of you will have at the conclusion of our draft.  Once the 28 players have been assigned to their proper teams, I'm going to turn on auto-draft and let the AI fill out the rest.  I will create a backup before doing this though in case the AI doesn't pick mostly pitchers as I expect.  In that case, I'll come up with some other mechanism to fill the rosters.

    I will begin simming the games for this league on Thursday as well.  However, I intend to sim two days off the schedule at a time, as opposed to just one in the MLB sim.  Once a firm MLB Opening Day has been set, I'll adjust this schedule so that the season is completed before Opening Day.  There will be a few other differences in the DTBL sim.  Injuries will be disabled.  So yes, Chris Sale and Luis Severino will be good-to-go for this season.  I will disable AI roster moves, including trades, signings, promotions and demotions.  Essentially, the team rosters will remain static throughout the season, unless you decide to make changes to your own roster.

    Yes, you will have an opportunity to participate, if you so desire.  First of all, if any of you happen to have OOTP or are thinking about purchasing it, please let me know ASAP.  I can configure the game to make this an online league, which would allow you to take full control of your roster, including every minute detail right down to in-game strategy.  I haven't participated in an OOTP online league in a very long time and have never run one myself, so I'll need to research this a bit, which is why I'd appreciate a quick response if you want to participate in this manner.  But you do not need OOTP to be a part of this sim.  At any time throughout the season, you can email me with changes you would like made to your roster:  signing free agents, promoting to/from the reserve roster, changes to lineups/depth charts/pitching staff roles.  The degree to which you wish to participate is completely up to you.  In fact, if you just want to let the AI handle it all, that will be just fine.  To reiterate though, I will be disabling AI roster moves.  So if you choose not to participate, the 26 player roster that you begin the season with will remain in tact for the duration of the season.  No roster moves made throughout this process will have any impact on your real DTBL roster.

    My current plan is to post the results of both sims to the website around 9 p.m. EDT each evening.  There will be links to the main page for each league on the front page of this website.  Those URLs shouldn't change, so feel free to bookmark them and check them whenever you wish.  I will also be tweeting links (@DTBL_Kevin) when the pages have been updated and perhaps occasionally chiming in with some of the highlights, using hashtag #DTBL2020Sim.  Maybe I'll even write an occasional blog post to recap the action, if I'm really bored.

    This project has given me something to look forward to.  It is not much of a replacement for real baseball games, but it will suffice for now.  Let's play ball!

  • A Family Affair

    Embed from Getty Images
    Trivia time!  What do Fernando Tatis, Vladimir Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Craig Biggio all have in common?  If you guessed that they all hit at least .290 with 15+ home runs for their respective DTBL teams in 1999, you are correct!  Oh, and they also all have sons who were selected in the first 15 picks of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  This league has been around long enough that we had already seen a few sons of former DTBL players become second generation league members.  But in the previous instances, the fathers only had a cup of coffee in this league at the tail end of their careers.  This four-some is different.  All four compiled multiple strong seasons in the league and all but Tatis were among the league’s best players in its first 10-15 years.

    Interestingly, it is the least accomplished father of those four whose son enters the league with the highest acclaim.  The Demigods selected the do-it-all shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. with the first pick in the draft.  Tatis hit .317 with 22 homers and 16 stolen bases in a MLB rookie campaign that was cut short by injury.  Provided he has a full year of solid health in 2020, it isn’t unreasonable to think he could be the second straight #1 draft pick to post a 30/30 season in his DTBL rookie year.  The Demigods will turn to Tatis to help put their miserable 2019 behind them.  Keep in mind that prior to last year, this is a team that finished in the top half of the standings in five straight seasons.  Tatis has the talent to lift them back up to their recent historic norms.

    While Tatis was spectacular last year, he probably wouldn’t have won the NL Rookie of the Year award even if he had stayed healthy.  Not with Pete Alonso breaking the MLB all-time rookie record for home runs.  Alonso slugged 53 homers, which would have led the DTBL by four had he been in the league a year ago.  His 120 RBIs would have been fourth best in the league.  He was worthy of the second overall pick in the draft on his own merit, but he also happens to be an ideal fit for the Choppers who finished next to last in home runs and RBIs and dead last in total batting points a year ago.  This is the third straight year the Choppers have used their first pick on an infielder.  Alonso figures to have the biggest impact of them all.

    The Komodos made it consecutive 2019 MLB Rookie of the Year winners when they selected Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez with the third pick.  Alvarez crashed the AL rookie party that was supposed to be all about a couple guys that will be covered below.  He hit .317 with 27 home runs and 78 RBIs despite not making his debut until June.  Had he been in the majors from the jump like Alonso, perhaps he too could have challenged the rookie home run record.  Alvarez is currently sidelined with a knee issue.  But assuming that doesn’t keep him out of action too long, he figures to be one of the league’s top sluggers.  He will join Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Nelson Cruz and Jose Ramirez to form what could be a sneaky great Komodos offense.

    Sneaky great is also an appropriate way of describing Keston Hiura’s young MLB career.  The Jackalope tabbed the Brewers second baseman with the fourth pick.  In 84 games, Hiura managed to hit .303 with 19 homers and nine stolen bases.  Extrapolate those numbers out to a full season and you could have the makings of a stud at a very weak offensive position.  The Jackalope have had one of the league’s best infields for a while now, but Hiura injects it with a needed shot of youth.  The spring is not off to a great start from a health perspective for the Jackalope.  Hiura could help cure much of what ails them, however.

    Only one player selected in the first round won’t be making his DTBL debut this season.  Lucas Giolito was signed as a free agent by the Mavericks late in the 2017 season and was subsequently released prior to 2018, when the Mavericks picked him up again in the seventh round of the draft.  But he was released again by the Mavericks that May and had such a poor season that he got dropped from the league last year.  2019 Giolito was basically a brand new pitcher, making the All-Star team and compiling a Cy Young campaign resume.  The pitcher the Cougars drafted with the fifth pick this year really doesn’t resemble the one who pitched for the Mavericks.  In ’19, Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, won 14 games and struck out an impressive 228 batters in 177 innings.  The Cougars pitching staff prevented them from being serious contenders a year ago.  Giolito could help change that.

    A year ago, it seemed like a near certainty that I would be writing about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the first player taken in the 2020 draft.  Not that some of these other guys weren’t highly touted prospects, but Guerrero was at a different level.  His MLB debut became a must-see event, unlike any player I can recall since Bryce Harper.  That incredible, and probably unfair, level of hype made his 2019 season seem a little underwhelming.  He hit .272 with “only” 15 homers.  Here’s another number that is equally relevant though:  21.  That’s the age Guerrero will turn next week.  What Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto have done in their teens/very early 20s just isn’t normal.  Struggling to get your footing in the big leagues like Guerrero did *is* normal.  I have it on good authority that the Moonshiners were shocked and thrilled to grab him with the sixth pick in this draft.  If Vladito does in fact reach his potential, we’ll all look back on this pick and wonder how it came to be.

    The Mavericks were also probably quite surprised about the availability of their first round pick.  They selected slugging outfielder Eloy Jimenez with the seventh pick.  Much of what I wrote about Guerrero applies to Jimenez as well, although he is a little older and did wind up posting pretty solid numbers thanks to a strong finish to the 2019 season.  31 home runs and 79 RBIs are impressive totals for a rookie and could be viewed as the floor of what to expect from here on out.  He seems a good bet to improve on the .267 average too.  Assuming good health, the Mavericks outfield is absolutely ridiculous.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Nick Castellanos and now Jimenez.  The rest of the roster ain’t too shabby either.

    The Beanballers first official selection as a member of the DTBL was another flashy young shortstop who is the son of a former DTBL player, Bo Bichette.  Bichette has the fewest big league games under his belt of this first round group, but he made his short stint in the big leagues count.  In just 46 games, he hit .311 with 11 homers.  While not directly fantasy relevant, he also had 18 doubles.  So the extra base power appears to be legit.  With a new league member, it is hard to predict what the draft strategy might be.  In this case, it looks like the Beanballers went with the best young talent available, because shortstop was not a position of need with Trea Turner and Amed Rosario already on the roster.  You can’t go wrong with a middle infielder with huge upside though.  Bichette joins a roster with plenty of talent, so it will be interesting to see how the Beanballers do on their maiden voyage.

    Seven of the first eight selections were hitters.  We finally saw a rookie pitcher go off the board when the Darkhorses selected Chris Paddack at #9.  While still at the very beginning of his career, Paddack already has an advanced repertoire, which he used to compile some gaudy numbers in 2019.  His sub 1.00 WHIP and 3.33 ERA were pretty incredible for a first season in the majors.  This selection made all the sense in the world for the Darkhorses, who have fallen a little short of the champion Kings the past two seasons because they didn’t have quite enough pitching.  Paddack will join Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin and Jose Berrios in a rotation that seems quite capable of closing that gap and claiming their first DTBL title in 10 years.

    The Kings probably would have drafted any of the nine players selected ahead of them if they had fallen to the last slot in the first round.  Instead, they settled for a pitcher with very intriguing stuff, but also one who missed half of the 2019 campaign with a PED suspension.  Athletics hurler Frankie Montas was the final pick of the first round of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  Before the suspension, Montas was electric.  He struck out more than a batter per inning with a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  While starting pitching has been the Kings strength in their recent championship runs, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t getting any younger.  So they will turn to Montas as a potential ace in waiting.  In the meantime, he will join those guys in a rather formidable rotation.

    A quick note on one second round selection referenced up top:  the Cougars selected second baseman Cavan Biggio with the 15th overall pick.  This connection is intriguing since Cavan’s father Craig was also a second baseman on the first two Cougars championship squads and was an all-time great for both the Cougars and Choppers.

    After a bit of a slow start, we’ve hit our stride the past few days and are now on a great pace.  We should have plenty of time between the conclusion of the draft and Opening Day.  Keep up the good work!

  • DTBL Best of the Decade

    Embed from Getty Images The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

    As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

    Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin's Kings

    It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren't the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

    Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay's Jackalope

    The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn't necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we've ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

    Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

    This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let's just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

    Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

    This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn't really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

     

    Now let's move onto the All-Decade players.  I've selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I've bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn't want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn't want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

     

    First Team All-Decade

    C - Victor Martinez (Naturals '10-'15, Mavericks '16, Kings '17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

    C - Buster Posey (Demigods '11-'19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

    1B - Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope '12-'19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

    2B - Jose Altuve (Demigods '12-'19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

    3B - Nolan Arenado (Naturals '14-'19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

    SS - Francisco Lindor (Demigods '16-'19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

    1B/3B - Miguel Cabrera (Naturals '10-'18, Mavericks '19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

    2B/SS - Robinson Cano (Kings '10-'19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

    OF - Mike Trout (Mavericks '12-'19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

    OF - Nelson Cruz (Mavericks '10-'11, Gators '12-'17, Komodos '18-'19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

    OF - Mookie Betts (Kings '15-'19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

    OF - Andrew McCutchen (Naturals '10-'17, Choppers '18-'19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

    OF - Ryan Braun (Jackalope '10-'19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

    DH - Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope '10, Naturals '11, Mavericks '12-'14, Darkhorses '15-'19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

    SP - Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks '10-'19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

    SP - Max Scherzer (Jackalope '10, Kings '10-'19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

    SP - Justin Verlander (Kings '10-'19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

    SP - Zack Greinke (Jackalope '10, Naturals '11-'14, Moonshiners '15-'19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

    SP - Chris Sale (Naturals '11, Choppers '12-'19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

    RP - Craig Kimbrel (Choppers '11-'19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

    RP - Kenley Jansen (Mavericks '11-'19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

    RP - Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks '11, '15-'17, Jackalope '12-'14, Komodos '18-'19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

    RP - Jonathan Papelbon (Kings '10-'15, Jackalope '15-'16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

     

    Second Team All-Decade

    C - Yadier Molina (Choppers '10-'16, Cougars '17-'19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

    C - J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses '16-'19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

    1B - Joey Votto (Naturals '10-'19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

    2B - Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners '10-'16, Jackalope '17-'18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

    3B - Adrian Beltre (Choppers '10-'18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

    SS - Trea Turner (Naturals '16-'19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

    1B/3B - Freddie Freeman (Demigods '12-'19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

    2B/SS - Brian Dozier (Moonshiners '14-'19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

    OF - Charlie Blackmon (Cougars '15-'19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

    OF - Bryce Harper (Darkhorses '13-'19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

    OF - Christian Yelich (Darkhorses '14-'19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

    OF - Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope '11-'19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

    OF - Carlos Gonzalez (Kings '10-'17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

    DH - Albert Pujols (Jackalope '10-'14, Mavericks '15, '18, Choppers '16-'17, Darkhorses '18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

    SP - David Price (Naturals '10-'18, Komodos '19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

    SP - Madison Bumgarner (Cougars '11-'19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

    SP - Felix Hernandez (Jackalope '10-'14, '18, Moonshiners '15-'17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

    SP - Jon Lester (Naturals '10-'12, Choppers '13-'19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

    SP - Corey Kluber (Demigods '14-'19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

    RP - Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners '10-'11, Mavericks '12, Naturals '14, Kings '15-'17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

    RP - Greg Holland (Gators '12-'13, Naturals '13-'17, Komodos '18, Mavericks '19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

    RP - David Robertson (Cougars '12-'19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

    RP - Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners '16-'19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

     

    I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

    Batters

    Pitchers

    Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here's to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

  • Yelich Wins Stacked MVP Race

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    Not since 2005 have we seen three different players hit 40+ homers and steal 15+ bases in a single season.  In that season 14 years ago, Alex Rodriguez, Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols all reached those milestones.  2019 saw fewer league-wide stolen bases than any previous season since the league expanded to eight teams in 1996.  Despite a historic lack of steals, three players managed to swipe at least 15 bags while slugging over 40 home runs.  Two of them actually doubled that stolen base mark with 30+.  Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich all had seasons that were among the most valuable this league has seen in recent times.  But only one of them could win the league’s MVP award.  In an extremely competitive vote, Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich is the 2019 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Yelich suffered a broken kneecap injury in early September that cost him an opportunity to reach all sorts of unprecedented milestones.  Yet despite missing the last several weeks of the season, he still managed to post numbers every bit as good as any player in recent memory.  He hit .329 with 44 home runs and 30 stolen bases, all three marks were among the top five in the league.  His 100 runs scored and 97 runs batted in were quite impressive as well, considering the missed time in September.  He is one of only six players in league history to have hit 40+ homers with 30+ steals and a batting average over .300.  Among those six, the only player to post a higher batting average was Larry Walker in 1997 (.366) and he benefited from playing half his games in Denver.  Yelich produced a 12.0 Batting PAR season, the third highest since 2005, just barely trailing Acuna this year and 2007 Alex Rodriguez.  Had he remained healthy, it is probably safe to assume he would have claimed the top spot on that list.

    Yelich has been an excellent player his entire career.  But it was an offseason trade from Miami to Milwaukee prior to the 2018 season that seemed to push him to a new level.  He has now posted two consecutive MVP caliber seasons since joining the Brew Crew, winning the NL MVP in 2018 and finishing second for that award in the DTBL a year ago.  A third round pick by the Darkhorses in 2014, Yelich has been a fixture in their outfield since.  He has a career batting average of .304 with 134 home runs and 111 stolen bases.  He will only need a couple more seasons like the previous two to catch Matt Holliday and Hanley Ramirez as the best player in franchise history.  Shockingly, this year was the first time he was named to a DTBL All-Star team.  But he made his first appearance a memorable one, slugging a grand slam to lead the National Division to victory and was thus named the game’s MVP.  His special two year run has also vaulted the Darkhorses into championship contention.  The Darkhorses have finished runner-up to the Kings the past two years and have had the league’s best offense both seasons, in large part because of Yelich.  They have finished in the top half of the standings every year since Yelich’s rookie campaign and appear primed to make another run next season.

    The vote for the MVP award was as competitive as any we’ve seen in recent years.  With three players having historically strong years, this isn’t too surprising.  Yelich only received four of the ten first place votes.  But what ultimately decided things in his favor was receiving second place votes on all of the other six ballots.  That computed to 82 total points, 11 ahead of Acuna.  The Jackalope outfielder, and Rookie of the Year recipient, also received four first place votes, but only three seconds.  Curiously, he was left off one ballot entirely.  That alone didn’t cost him the award though since he finished more than 10 points behind Yelich.  As a reminder from the ROY post, Acuna set a new high water mark for Batting PAR since 2005.  Komodos first baseman Bellinger was a top three choice on all ten ballots, but only two of them were first place nods.  The NL MVP had impressive five category totals in his own right, but fell a bit short of Yelich and Acuna in steals.  Bellinger finished third with 62 points.  I only have the full award voting results dating back to 2005, but this is the first time since then that three different players have received at least 60 points in the MVP vote.  Needless to say, there was a bit of a gap after those three.  Coming in fourth was the AL MVP and perennial DTBL MVP candidate, Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout.  Amazingly, Trout has now been an All-Star and a MVP vote recipient in every season of his DTBL career, which dates back to 2012.  And perhaps even more amazing, he has only won this award once, in 2014.  His consistent greatness should never be ignored.  He has posted a Batting PAR of at least 7.6 every season of his career.  Trout appeared on nine of the ten ballots and accumulated 21 points.  There was a tie for fifth place between a couple of slugging third basemen:  Moonshiners’ Rafael Devers and Jacklope’s Anthony Rendon.  They finished with eight points each.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    That concludes the 2019 DTBL awards announcements.  Usually, this MVP post is my final one of the year.  But that will not be the case this year.  With the decade about to end next month, I plan on doing some sort of 2010s decade recap in December.  At the very least, it will include an All-Decade Team and perhaps a look at the league’s best teams over the past 10 years as well.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  • Verlander Back on Top

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    The current decade began with Justin Verlander as one of the best pitchers in baseball. A few years later, he appeared to be a pitcher in decline. Not surprising for someone who was on the wrong side of 30. But then in 2016, he began to return to his old form. By the time he was traded from Detroit to Houston in 2017, he was basically back to being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. That late career resurgence was taken to a new level in 2019. This year, he recorded a career high in strikeouts and won over 20 games for the first time since 2011. The longtime Kings right-hander was a major contributor to the team winning their second consecutive DTBL Championship. Justin Verlander is the 2019 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

    The 2019 season saw DTBL pitchers compile a 3.87 ERA, the highest cumulative ERA since 2006.  Despite the improved offensive environment in baseball, Verlander managed to compile one of the best seasons of his career.  His 2.58 ERA was fourth best in the league.  But he was the league leader in WHIP (0.80) and wins (21).  He struck out exactly 300 batters, a career high.  Only his Astros teammate Gerrit Cole topped him in whiffs.  His 17.3 Pitching PAR is a new record (among seasons that have been calculated).  In fact, Cole’s 16.4 also surpassed the old record, previously held by… Verlander in 2011.  Verlander and Cole became just the fourth and fifth DTBL pitchers to record 20+ wins and 300+ strikeouts in a season, joining Pedro Martinez (1999), Randy Johnson (2001, 2002) and Curt Schilling (2002).  Verlander’s 0.80 WHIP is the second lowest among qualified pitchers in league history, trailing just Martinez’s ridiculous 2000 season (0.74).  He clearly had one of the greatest pitching seasons this league has ever seen.

    To the best of my knowledge, Verlander has set a record for longest gap between Cy Young wins.  He is a second time winner, also receiving the award in 2011.  That 2011 campaign is the only other on his resume that could possibly be compared favorably to 2019, though he did finish third for the award just last season as well.  Originally drafted by the Demigods in 2007, he was dropped by them following a very rough 2008 season.  The Kings selected him in the third round in 2009 and have been reaping the benefits ever since.  Although they also came close to dropping him following his mediocre 2014 and 2015 seasons.  All told, he is a six time All-Star and now a two time Cy Young winner.  His case for one of the top pitchers in DTBL history is an easy one to make.  Earlier this season, he became just the fifth pitcher to reach the 200 win plateau and currently sits tied with Tom Glavine for fourth all-time.  He is third on the career strikeout leaderboard.  With a decent season in 2020, he should move up to second, trailing only Randy Johnson.  And he has a pretty good chance of joining Johnson as the only DTBL pitchers to record 3,000 strikeouts.  Speaking of Johnson, the Big Unit is the only pitcher ahead of Verlander on the Kings all-time wins and strikeouts lists as well. Verlander has now been a key piece of three different Kings title winning squads (2013, 2018, 2019).

    As expected, this Cy Young race turned into a two way battle between Astros teammates.  Verlander and Cole were the only two pitchers to receive first place votes.  Verlander grabbed seven of them and was placed second on the other three ballots for a total of 91 points.  The Jackalope’s Cole probably would have won this award had he put up his same numbers any other season.  He ever so slightly trailed Verlander in wins, WHIP and PAR.  But he had a slightly lower ERA and 26 more strikeouts.  He received three first place votes and six seconds.  That garnered him 77 points, putting him significantly ahead of everyone but Verlander.  This shook out similarly to the AL Cy Young race where Verlander also edged Cole.  On the other hand, the two time defending NL Cy Young award winner, Darkhorses righty Jacob deGrom, is still looking for his first DTBL Cy Young.  He led the league in ERA (2.25), but trailed Verlander and Cole in the other categories.  DeGrom was the majority choice for third place, receiving six of those votes and a point total of 42.  Coming in fourth was another veteran pitcher who had arguably the best season of his career.  The Mavericks’ Stephen Strasburg recorded a career high 18 wins and 251 strikeouts before cementing his status as an elite postseason pitcher as he helped the Nats win the World Series.  Strasburg received one second place vote and appeared on all ten ballots, finishing with 26 points.  Those were the four pitchers who appeared on every ballot, but the fifth place finisher received significant support as well.  Moonshiners veteran Zack Greinke has experienced a bit of a career resurgence in his own right.  He had his best season since 2015.  Greinke appeared on eight ballots and tallied 14 points.  So three of the top five finishers completed the season as members of the Astros rotation.  And building off a year-long theme of veteran starters leading the way, four of these five pitchers are over 30 years old and none are younger than 29.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    You can expect the Most Valuable Player award winner to be announced on Wednesday. That figures to be an extremely competitive race as three players, in particular, have incredibly strong cases to be made for the honor.

  • Acuna Bursts Onto Scene

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    Ronald Acuna had one of the best rookie seasons in DTBL history. Actually, let’s revise that. He had one of the best seasons in DTBL history, regardless of age or experience. The fact that he was in his first year in the league only highlights what a special talent he is. The first pick in this year’s draft lived up to the hype and then some. He nearly became the third player in league history to compile a 40/40 HR/SB season. He did manage to rack up the highest single season PAR of any offensive player that has been calculated to date (since 2005). The Jackalope outfielder stood well above a very strong rookie class. Unsurprisingly, Ronald Acuna was the unanimous choice for the 2019 DTBL Rookie of the Year award.

    A late season injury may have cost Acuna an opportunity to become the league’s third 40/40 player. He hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases, finishing sixth and second in the league in those categories. He wasn’t too shabby in the other three categories either. He had a .280 average with 127 runs scored (3rd in league) and 101 RBI. The last player to have a line of at least .280/35/35/100/100 was Matt Kemp in 2011. So it has been quite a while since we’ve seen a five category performance like the one Acuna put up in 2019. As mentioned, his 12.15 Batting PAR is the highest we’ve seen since 2005. He just barely edged out Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger in that stat. So those three players figure to be the top contenders for the MVP award. The last player to win both the Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards was Ryan Howard in 2006. We will soon see if Acuna can change that.

    The Jackalope had a pretty easy choice when they selected Acuna with the first pick back in March. But they could not have possibly expected the pick to pay off so handsomely in the first season. Acuna was largely responsible for the Jackalope nearly doubling their 2018 batting point total this season (13 to 25). He and Anthony Rendon were easily the squad’s two best hitters. Acuna led the team in homers, steals and runs. The Jackalope have been fielding an impressive infield for quite some time. Should Giancarlo Stanton return to health next year, he and Acuna will make for a fearsome duo in the outfield as well. Interestingly, four of the past five Rookie of the Year winners have been members of either the Jackalope or Cougars. Jake Arrieta won the award for the Jackalope in 2015.

    The ease by which Acuna won this award should not diminish the strength of the rookie class as a whole. But he did receive all ten first place votes and is the third straight unanimous winner, the fourth in the past five years. Finishing second was another young phenom outfielder, who also finished second to Acuna in the NL Rookie of the Year vote last year, the Mavericks’ Juan Soto. Soto’s age 20 season was absolutely brilliant and culminated in a World Series title. Soto wasn’t quite the stolen base threat that Acuna was, but was similar in all of the other categories, hitting 34 homers with 110 runs scored and batted in. He received seven second place votes, appeared on all ten ballots and compiled 58 points. That total narrowly edged out Choppers pitcher Shane Bieber. Bieber led all rookie pitchers in wins (15) and strikeouts (259). Of the top four finishers for this award, he was the only one who wasn’t a top draft choice. A third round selection, he may have been the steal of this year’s draft. Bieber was also on all ten ballots, including three second place and six third place votes. He finished four points behind Soto. Picked between Acuna and Soto in the draft, Komodos pitcher Walker Buehler had an impressive debut season as well. Buehler had very similar numbers to Bieber, but fell a little short in strikeouts. He received a pair of third place votes and finished with 25 points. Those four guys have very bright futures ahead of them. But maybe the most interesting rookie on this list is the guy who finished fifth. 30 year old Eduardo Escobar has had a nice career. But until the past couple years, he was a bit of a fantasy baseball afterthought. He finally got his chance in the DTBL this year and proceeded to slug 35 homers. Not bad for an eighth round pick. Escobar appeared on six ballots and accumulated 10 points. Although they didn’t appear on many ballots, I think it is also worth mentioning that Cougars second baseman Gleyber Torres and Mavericks pitcher Jack Flaherty also had great rookie seasons. That pair, along with Acuna, Soto and Buehler meant that there weren’t many bad picks in the first round this year.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    I’m hoping to announce the Cy Young award winner later this week (probably Thursday), with the Most Valuable Player announcement to come early next week. Both of those awards figure to be more competitive than this one was.