DTBL News

Author: Kevin

  • Kings Retain Their Crown

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    The 2018 Kings were a very flawed team that rode a couple superstars to best a weak field and won a league championship.  2019 was a much different story.  The improved Darkhorses had one of the best offensive seasons in league history.  In order to beat them, the Kings needed a lot more than one or two guys to carry the offensive load.  And they got just that.  But once again, it was an untouchable pitching staff that ultimately led the charge.  For the first time since 2010 when the Darkhorses finished off their four-peat, sharing the league title with the Naturals, a team was able to successfully defend their title.  For the eighth time in franchise history, Kevin’s Kings are the Dream Team Baseball League champions.

    The Kings got off to a bit of a slow start, finding themselves in the middle of the pack for most of the first two months.  But by early June, they had claimed first place and rarely gave it up after that.  The Darkhorses were right on their tail most of the way, but the Kings grabbed first for good on August 17.  Much like last year, it was pretty much a two horse race between the Kings and Darkhorses.  But unlike last year, it was a race between two very strong teams.  The 77 points the Darkhorses accumulated would have been enough to win the league the previous three seasons.  The Kings finished with 84 points, which is the highest total since the Jackalope juggernaut of 2015.  Obviously, it takes a well-rounded team to rack up a point total like that.

    Mookie Betts was basically the lone offensive star for the 2018 Kings.  He was great again this year, but had plenty of help.  Without looking it up, I bet you wouldn’t have been able to name the Kings leader in batting PAR this season.  The answer:  Jonathan Villar.  Villar has long been an underappreciated fantasy performer, but he took things to a whole new level this season.  He led the league with 40 stolen bases, hit a career high 24 home runs and even managed to score 111 runs on a terrible Orioles team.  He is the first DTBL player to put up a 20/40 season since Carlos Gomez in 2013.  Villar’s 8.2 PAR led the Kings squad, but a couple other guys were right behind him.  Betts wasn’t quite the same player he was in ’18 when he claimed the league’s MVP award, but he was still pretty darn good.  He hit 29 homers while stealing 16 bags and led the league in runs scored, despite missing some time with nagging injuries.  Besides Villar, perhaps the most surprising offensive star for the Kings was Marcus Semien.  He set career highs pretty much across the board, hitting 33 homers with 92 RBIs and 123 runs.  His 7.2 PAR more than tripled his previous high water mark.  Interestingly, Villar and Semien were both back half of the draft selections by the Kings in 2018.  It took a while, but those picks have paid off in a big way.  There were other sneakily impressive players for the Kings offense.  Matt Olson and Trey Mancini slugged 30+ homers.  It was the overall quality of depth that the Kings had which made this a much improved group.

    But let’s not get too carried away gushing about the Kings offense.  Because in the end, it was once again the pitching staff that won them the championship.  Until the very last few days of the season, it appeared they were going to pull off something no team has ever done:  finishing first in all five pitching categories.  But the Mavericks snatched the ERA crown from them at the last minute and the Kings had to settle for 49 pitching points.  That ties them with the 2011 Jackalope for most total pitching points.

    Once again drawing comparisons to the 2018 team, the Kings pitching staff was anchored by two long time veteran members of their squad:  Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  An injury derailed Scherzer from repeating his ’18 Cy Young campaign, but Verlander more than picked up the slack.  He led the league in pitching PAR at 17.3, barely edging out his Astros teammate Gerrit Cole.  Both Verlander and Cole topped Verlander’s previous league record 16.4 mark in 2011 (among seasons I’ve calculated).  Verlander won a league high 21 and also bested all starting pitchers with a 0.80 WHIP.  He reached 300 strikeouts in his final outing of the season, only trailing Cole in that category.  Meanwhile, Scherzer wasn’t able to accumulate similarly impressive numbers in the counting categories, but he did still post a 2.92 ERA with 243 strikeouts in just 172 innings.  Verlander and Scherzer had a little more help this year.  Most notably, Eduardo Rodriguez had an under-the-radar great year.  He won 18 games for the Kings, striking out 204 batters.  Zack Wheeler was a solid addition to the rotation too.

    The Kings bullpen was a surprising strength for the club as well.  It should be noted that saves were way down across the league this season.  Active DTBL players accumulated 728 of them, which is the lowest total since the league expanded to 10 teams in 1998.  So it didn’t take as much as usual to win the saves category.  But the Kings did it convincingly, racking up 104 of them.  Will Smith led the way with 34.  Sean Doolittle and Hector Nerris pitched in 29 and 25 respectively.  In the end, this bullpen didn’t feature outstanding peripherals.  But they were very good in the category that matters most for relief pitchers in fantasy baseball.

    The Kings made plenty of solid draft picks and free agent signings this year to plug holes in the roster.  But in the end, it was improved performances from a bunch of their keepers who led the way to this championship.  With their eighth DTBL Championship, the Kings have now doubled their closest competition, the Darkhorses and Naturals, for most titles in league history.  Unlike the previous version, this 2019 team will be remembered as one of their better squads.

    So now we are will into October and another off-season has begun for our league.  I will prepare for the awards voting and announcements in the near future.  But until then, enjoy the rest of the MLB Postseason!

  • Kings vs. Darkhorses Again?

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    Entering September of 2018, the Kings held a slim four point lead over the Darkhorses.  They would briefly relinquish that lead, but ultimately managed to win the DTBL Championship.  This year, the Kings once again held a four point lead over the Darkhorses heading into the season’s final month.  It is a pretty similar situation with these two seemingly the best bets to win it all.  The margin over the rest of the league is actually a little larger this year though.  As of today, the Mavericks find themselves almost 20 points behind the Kings with exactly four weeks to go.  That’s not completely insurmountable, but they will definitely need some help from both of the top two teams to make up some of that ground.

    The Kings and Darkhorses both appear to be slightly better versions of the 2018 editions of themselves.  The Kings still have the league’s best pitching staff.  But this year, they have held the top spot in all five pitching categories for a good portion of the season.  The offense is not as good, but only two other teams have more batting points.  On the other hand, the Darkhorses once again have the league’s best offense.  But this year, no other team is even close.  They have 48 batting points and appear to be close to a lock to win four of the five batting categories (all but stolen bases).  And their pitching staff is pretty good too.  Like Kings hitters, Darkhorses pitchers rank third in total points.

    It is really hard to handicap this race, because unlike last year, these two teams have been neck-and-neck pretty much all season.  Neither has had an extended period of poor play.  Both teams are relatively healthy heading into the final four weeks as well.  The Darkhorses are looking for their fifth league title, but first since 2010, while the Kings are seeking their record extending eighth league crown.  It should be a fascinating race.

    Here are the award winners for August of 2019.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
    Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Gleyber Torres, Cougars
    Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
    Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Mike Minor, Naturals
    Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Jack Flaherty, Mavericks
    Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Dallas Keuchel, Darkhorses
    Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Justin Verlander, Kings

    The Batters of the Week in August featured four players having monster seasons.  Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres have both already reached 30 home runs in their DTBL rookie campaigns.  Anthony Rendon also surpassed that mark in the past week.  And then there is Eugenio Suarez who hit his 40th (!!!) home run of the season yesterday.  As usual, the pitching award winners are a bunch of veterans still going strong, with youngster Jack Flaherty crashing the party.  Justin Verlander locked up the weekly award by pitching his third career no-hitter yesterday.  Because that happened on September 1 though, it didn’t help his cause for winning another Pitcher of the Month award.

    Batter of the Month:

    Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
    .270 AVG, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 23 R, 6 SB, 3.26 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Mike Clevinger, Naturals
    1.96 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 51 K, 3.06 PAR

    Last week, to the best of my knowledge, Ronald Acuna became just the second player to reach the 30/30 HR/SB club in his DTBL rookie campaign.  I don’t have a particularly easy way to confirm this, but I did a Baseball Reference Play Index search looking for 30/30 seasons since 1993 in a player’s first two MLB seasons and the only other result was Mike Trout in 2012.  So I feel pretty confident about this assertion.  Acuna currently has 36 home runs and 33 stolen bases with four weeks to go in the season.  He has a great shot at becoming the league’s fourth 40/40 player.  It once looked like a two horse race between Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich for the league MVP award, but Acuna is very much in the thick of that race now, in addition to Rookie of the Year.  As strong as his August was, three other players nearly snatched this award from him:  Demigods outfielder J.D. Martinez and the Nationals dynamic duo of Mavericks outfielder Juan Soto (also a DTBL rookie) and Jackalope third baseman Anthony Rendon.

    Finally, we have someone who isn’t a grizzled veteran winning the Pitcher of the Month award.  Mike Clevinger was a late bloomer, but is in just his second DTBL season with the Naturals.  At 28, he is easily the youngest to win this award so far in 2019.  Despite losing about two months due to an injury, he has still managed to compile a nice stat line for the season.  Half of his 10 wins came in August though.  He led the league in August strikeouts with 51.  For what it’s worth, he would not have won this award had Jack Flaherty’s first start of the month been as an active member of the Mavericks rotation.  Despite that start not counting, Flaherty still finished third for the award.  The runner-up was the Cougars’ Sonny Gray who is having a very nice career resurgence this summer.

  • Moose, Mo and More

    Embed from Getty Images A few times in recent years, I have taken the opportunity to write about the DTBL careers of a set of players recently inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.  Well, I think I might as well go ahead and make it an annual tradition for my July recap article.  Our league has reached a level of longevity such that virtually every player inducted into the Hall had a significant impact on this league as well.

    On July 21, six players were honored in Cooperstown, New York.  All six are DTBL alums and at least three would be sure fire Hall-of-Famers in this league as well, if such a thing existed.  The six honorees were:  Harold Baines, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith.  Here is a review of their DTBL careers, going in alphabetical order.

    Harold Baines was one of the more controversial selections in recent years, chosen by the Veterans Committee after never receiving much support during his time on the Baseball Writers Association ballot.  Personally, I find arguments over players who *are* selected to be tiresome.  More time should be spent arguing about players who are left out rather than trying to diminish those selected.  Baines was an excellent player, and a personal favorite of mine.  That said, he was probably the least accomplished DTBL player of this group with his prime years coming well before this league started.  He was drafted by the Gators in the inaugural draft of 1993 and spent five seasons with them as their primary designated hitter and was a member of their 1995 championship team.  He then spent his final two seasons as a part time player on a couple expansion teams:  the Angels in 1998 and the Moonshiners inaugural season of 1999.  Baines hit at least .290 in every season except his last one.  All told, he compiled an impressive .303 career batting average with 81 home runs.

    The late Roy Halladay was a major part of the modern pitching evolution of the late 2000s and early 2010s when power pitchers started to rule the day.  He spent his entire DTBL career with the Jackalope and litters their career leaderboard.  His run from 2008 to 2011 was just about as good as it gets over a four year span.  In every one of those years, he struck out over 200 with ERAs below 3.00 and at least 17 wins.  He won the DTBL Cy Young Award in 2010 and finished third in 2008 and 2011.  On three occasions, he won 20+ games (2003, 2008, 2010).  In his 12 year career, he racked up 177 victories, which ranks 10th in league history and third among players who debuted after 2000, behind Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia.  Halladay is the Jackalope franchise career leader in wins and innings pitched and trails only Felix Hernandez in strikeouts.  His 75.8 Pitching PAR also leads the way, by a margin that will only increase when I get around to calculating the numbers from his first three seasons.  The Jackalope selected Halladay in the fourth round of the 2002 Draft.  I would say that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He was a critical piece of their first championship squad in 2011.

    As designated hitters go, nobody has ever been as good for as long as Edgar Martinez.  Interestingly enough though, he actually got his start in this league as a third baseman for three years, even though DH was an official position in our league in those days.  While he could certainly hit for power, his carrying tool was his ability to hit for average.  His career mark of .316 ranks ninth in league history.  But he hit over .320 for six consecutive seasons from 1995 through 2000.  Martinez debuted for the Kings in 1993 and then played for the expansion Metros in 1994 before settling in with the Cougars for the remainder of his career (1995 through 2004).  Unfortunately, my transaction records are a little scattered from the 90s, so I don't recall exactly how he made those team jumps.  I do know that the Cougars must have cut him loose after his typically solid 1998 season though because they then reacquired him with their first round pick in 1999.  I think expansion draft rules that year may have played a part.  But anyway, the Cougars managed to hang onto him and he continued to hit for them for years to come.  He won a DTBL Championship with the Cougars in 1996.  He is their career batting average leader at .317.  For his DTBL career, Martinez also hit 239 home runs with 956 RBI.  He topped 100 RBI in five different seasons.  There have been few pure hitters better than Edgar Martinez in the past quarter century.

    Justin Verlander needs just two more wins to reach 200 for his DTBL career.  When he does that, he will become just the fifth player in league history to reach that mark.  The other four are now all Hall-of-Famers, thanks to the recent induction of Mike Mussina.  Had I not just looked it up, I don't think I would have remembered or guessed that Mussina finished his career just one win shy of the league's all time leader, Greg Maddux.  Mussina won 239 games despite never compiling 20 in a single season.  He won exactly 20 for the first and only time in his final season of 2008, but was an in-season free agent signing by the Moonshiners that year and only compiled 16 wins for them.  But he posted double digit wins in an impressive 15 of 16 DTBL seasons.  In addition to all the wins, he also ranks fifth in league history with 2,576 strikeouts and pitched more innings than every pitcher not named Maddux.  They are the only two to record over 3,000 DTBL innings.  Mussina was drafted by the Kings in 1993 and spent two seasons with them before being part of one of the league's first blockbuster trades during the 1995 Draft.  Unfortunately, as covered earlier, my transaction records from those days are rather lacking, so I don't have the complete details.  But I do recall it being a huge deal.  Anyway, it certainly worked out for the Choppers who retained his services for the next 13 seasons.  He and Greg Maddux top pretty much all of the Choppers career pitching numbers.  That duo were a big reason why the Choppers won league titles in 1997 and 1999.  While he might not be at the top of your mind when you think of the all-time great pitchers, he should be.  Mike Mussina was one of the best pitchers in DTBL history.

    Mariano Rivera was the first player to ever be unanimously selected for the Hall of Fame.  His case for enshrinement was pretty impeccable.  Obviously, that would be true of his DTBL career as well.  His 643 career saves is an incredible 83 more than any other pitcher has accumulated.  I doubt anyone will come close to that total anytime soon.  He topped 30 saves in 15 of his 17 seasons, with injuries cutting short the two seasons in which he failed to reach that total.  Even in his final season of 2013, he managed to rack up 44 saves.  His career high save total came in 2004 with 53 and he reached 50 in 2001 as well.  But it wasn't just the saves.  His 2.02 ERA and 0.973 WHIP are both easily the lowest in league history among pitchers with at least 800 innings pitched.  He had so many seasons with a sub 2.00 ERA and 40+ saves that it is basically impossible to pick a career best season.  486 of Rivera's saves came with the Cougars who drafted him in the first round of 1997, coming right off the heals of their third championship in four years.  He remained with the Cougars all the way until 2009, when they traded him to the Mavericks for Mike Lowell, not the best trade the Cougars have ever made.  Rivera had a productive season and a half for the Mavericks before he was traded again during the 2011 Draft to the Choppers in exchange for a second round pick which would become Starlin Castro.  Rivera's final two seasons were with the Choppers where he continued to be one of the best relievers in baseball.  Oddly enough, Rivera never won a DTBL Championship while winning five World Series titles with the Yankees.  Mariano Rivera rode one pitch, a nasty cutter, to a Hall of Fame career.  He is the greatest relief pitcher in MLB and DTBL history.

    Finally, we have Lee Smith, the third former Thunder Chopper of this class.  Like Baines, he was selected by the Veterans Committee and compiled most of his Hall of Fame numbers before this league started.  That said, his DTBL career was short, but productive.  He was an inaugural DTBL Draft selection of the Choppers in 1993.  He saved 114 games for the Choppers in 1993 through 1995, which still puts him fourth in franchise history in that category.  His 33 saves in the strike shortened 1994 season led the league.  Through the first three seasons of this league's history, Smith held the all-time saves lead.  Obviously that didn't hold up very long though as he didn't record a save in his final DTBL season of 1996.  While he bounced around a whole bunch of MLB teams in the latter stages of his career, he did not pitch for any DTBL team besides the Choppers.  One of the original fireballing closers, Lee Smith is a worthy Hall of Famer.

    On to the awards for July 2019.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/1 - 7/7) - Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods Week 16 (7/11 - 7/14) - Josh Donaldson, Jackalope Week 17 (7/15 - 7/21) - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope Week 18 (7/22 - 7/28) - Nelson Cruz, Komodos Week 19 (7/29 - 8/4) - Starling Marte, Komodos

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/1 - 7/7) - Aaron Nola, Demigods Week 16 (7/11 - 7/14) - Mike Soroka, Mavericks Week 17 (7/15 - 7/21) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks Week 18 (7/22 - 7/28) - Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks Week 19 (7/29 - 8/4) - Justin Verlander, Kings

    July was a good month for Braves players and Mavericks pitchers, as three of each won weekly awards.  Braves and Jackalope teammates Josh Donaldson and Ronald Acuna took the Batter of the Week honors surrounding the All-Star break.  Two other DTBL teammates won the award the following couple weeks as Komodos sluggers Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte finished the month with a bang.  The Mavericks pitching staff has been heating up as of late.  60% of their rotation claimed a weekly honor in July with Mike Soroka, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg all continuing to pitch extremely well.  Two of the players listed above parlayed their strong weeks into a full month of excellence in July.

    Batter of the Month:

    Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods .398 AVG, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 18 R, 0 SB, 3.26 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks 1.14 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 44 K, 3.21 PAR

    Yulieski Gurriel has been a solid big league hitter for some time now.  But one thing that has kept him from being discussed among the elite players in the game is a relative lack of power at a position where big home run totals are expected.  Entering this season, his career high for homers was 18 in 2017.  Entering July, he was on his typically pedestrian pace with just eight dingers.  But then he went and hit 12 in a span of 18 games and has already smashed his career high mark.  In addition to the dozen July home runs, he also came just short of hitting .400 for the month (.398).  Despite those gaudy numbers, he won this award by the slimmest of margins over Moonshiners third baseman Rafael Devers, who has basically been on fire for three straight months now.  Nobody else was close to Gurriel or Devers.

    It is genarally a good sign for a pitcher when he allows fewer earned runs than he knocks in at the plate in any given game.  In July, Stephen Strasburg pulled that trick for the entire month!  He surrendered just four earned runs while compiling a 1.14 ERA and added six RBIs to help his own cause while at the plate.  Strasburg continues the trend of veteran pitchers winning this monthly pitching honor.  But at 31 years old, he is actually the youngest pitcher to win this award in 2019.  He was a comfortable winner, but two other pitchers who had a great run in July were Astros righties Justin Verlander (Kings) and Gerrit Cole (Jackalope).  With the addition of Zack Greinke to their rotation, it would appear the Astros are well armed for another World Series run.

    A reminder that the DTBL trade deadline is coming up next week:  Thursday, August 15.  Trades must be accepted by both parties by midnight on the 15th, even though trades consummated between the 12th and 15th won't be processed until the following Monday.

  • Yelich Slams National To Victory

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    A year ago in the DTBL All-Star Game, the National Division staged an incredible comeback to defeat the American Division. They scored seven runs in the 7th and 8th innings to win by a score of 8-7. The game winning hit was a home run off of Aroldis Chapman. Sometimes history does repeat itself. In the 26th Annual DTBL All-Star Game, played for the first time at The Dragon Den, home of Kat’s Komodos, Christian Yelich launched a grand slam off of Chapman in the top of the seventh to give the National All-Stars their first lead of the game. They would hold on to defeat the American team by a final of 5-4, collecting their fourth straight victory in the mid-summer classic.

    Just like a year ago, the game got off to a great start for the American Division. Hyun-Jin Ryu got the start and survived a couple of singles to pitch a scoreless top of the first. In the bottom of the first, National starter Max Scherzer was uncharacteristically knocked around. The first three hitters he faced all recorded hits, highlighted by a run scoring double by Rafael Devers. The damage could have been worse had Willson Contreras not picked off Cody Bellinger at first. But the Americans had an early one run lead. It didn’t last long, however, as Trevor Story tied the game with a solo home run leading off the second. Scherzer continued to struggle in the bottom half, surrendering a mammoth, opposite-field 464 foot bomb by Eddie Rosario. Scherzer’s Kings teammate Justin Verlander struggled in the third inning as well. He gave up a two run homer to Nolan Arenado to stake the American squad to a 4-1 lead after three innings.

    After the third, things started to settle down and return to usual DTBL All-Star Game mode of an inordinate number of strikeouts. In the fourth inning, all six batters who stepped up to the plate were retired on strikeouts. Gerrit Cole for the American Division and Jacob deGrom for the National both struck out the side. Neither team really mounted much of a scoring chance in any of the middle innings. It remained 4-1 heading into the seventh inning, when everything changed.

    Kirby Yates started the seventh inning on the mound for the American side. He had major trouble finding the strike zone, loading the bases on three walks while also striking out a pair of hitters. The third walk was to Mike Trout, bringing Christian Yelich to the plate with the bags full and two outs. The American All-Stars then turned to Aroldis Chapman to set up a lefty vs. lefty matchup in the games biggest moment. Unfortunately for them, playing the matchup didn’t pan out. Yelich greeted Chapman with a first pitch opposite field bomb to left to clear the bases, giving the National All-Stars a 5-4 lead.

    After that, pitchers resumed their domination of hitters on both sides.  The National Division sent lefty Brad Hand to the mound to start the bottom of the ninth.  He retired the first two hitters he faced, but then surrendered a single to Cody Bellinger giving the American squad some life.  Kenley Jansen was then called upon to get the final out.  Sure enough, he struck out Anthony Rendon to lock up the 5-4 victory for the National All-Stars.  In keeping with the theme of repeating last year’s game, Jansen also closed out that National win.

    Will Smith picked up the win for the National team, having pitched an inefficient, but effective scoreless bottom of the sixth.  Chapman was tagged with a blown save and a loss for the second straight year.  And as just mentioned, this was the second consecutive save in an All-Star Game for Jansen.  Christian Yelich was the clear recipient of the game’s Most Valuable Player award.  The Darkhorses outfielder had a pair of hits, including the game deciding grand slam, walked once and drove in 80% of the National runs.  It is the third time in this four game winning streak by the National Division that the MVP has been won by a member of the Darkhorses, with Xander Bogaerts and Bryce Harper also earning this honor in recent years.

    Continuing the recent trend of a plethora of strikeouts in DTBL All-Star Games, there were 26 in this ballgame.  The National pitchers struck out 11, while the American hurlers recorded 15 K’s.  DeGrom, Cole and Roberto Osuna all struck out the side in their innings of work.  Besides Yelich, some of the other offensive standouts included Charlie Blackmon with a pair of hits for the National team and  Cody Bellinger who had a game high three hits for the American side.  Arenado probably would have been in line for the MVP award had the American Division held the lead as he recorded a home run and a double.  One other notable performance was Javy Baez who took the golden sombrero, striking out in all four of his plate appearances.

    The four straight victories by the National Division is a new DTBL All-Star Game record for consecutive wins by a team.  They have extended their overall lead to 15-11.  Click here to see the box score from the 2019 DTBL All-Star Game.

  • 2019 DTBL All-Stars

    Embed from Getty Images Later this week, the 26th Annual DTBL All-Star Game will take place with the Komodos hosting for the first time at the Dragon Den.  The exact date and time will be announced soon, so stay tuned for that.  Officially, the managers for the squads will be Charlie for the American Division and myself for the National Division.  Charlie and I broke all ties in the voting and chose the 23rd and final player for our respective rosters.

    As usual, there are a lot of first time All-Stars:  a total of 20, 11 on the American squad and nine more for the National team.  But what sticks out the most about those first-timers is that the American starting lineup will consist almost exclusively of them.  The only American starter who *won't* be making his DTBL All-Star debut is Komodos outfielder Eddie Rosario.  Meanwhile, the National starting lineup has a lot more experience, led by Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout who has amazingly been an All-Star in all eight of his DTBL seasons.

    The current DTBL standings feature three National teams in the top spots, but also two at the bottom, surrounding the five American squads.  So, on paper, this looks like a fairly even match-up.  The National All-Stars will be looking to win their fourth straight All-Star Game.

    Here are the 2019 DTBL All-Stars.

     

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher - Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals (1st All-Star appearance)

    • Catcher - Omar Narvaez, Choppers (1st)

    • First Base - Cody Bellinger, Komodos (1st)

    • Second Base - D.J. LeMahieu, Choppers (1st)

    • Third Base - Rafael Devers, Moonshiners (1st)

    • Shortstop - Adalberto Mondesi, Jackalope (1st)

    • Outfield - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope (1st)

    • Outfield - Domingo Santana, Jackalope (1st)

    • Outfield - Eddie Rosario, Komodos (2nd)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher - Gary Sanchez, Jackalope (3rd)

    • Second Base - Whit Merrifield, Choppers (2nd)

    • Third Base - Nolan Arenado, Naturals (5th)

    • Third Base - Anthony Rendon, Jackalope (2nd)

    • Outfield - Marcell Ozuna, Naturals (2nd)

    • Outfield - Joey Gallo, Komodos (1st)

    • Pitcher - Walker Buehler, Komodos (1st)

    • Pitcher - Gerrit Cole, Jackalope (3rd)

    • Pitcher - Zack Greinke, Moonshiners (6th)

    • Pitcher - Charlie Morton, Moonshiners (2nd)

    • Relief Pitcher - Josh Hader, Naturals (2nd)

    • Relief Pitcher - Kirby Yates, Komodos (1st)

    • Relief Pitcher - Aroldis Chapman, Komodos (5th)

    • Relief Pitcher - Roberto Osuna, Moonshiners (3rd)

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher - Max Scherzer, Kings (6th)

    • Catcher - Willson Contreras, Demigods (1st)

    • First Base - Freddie Freeman, Demigods (4th)

    • Second Base - Javier Baez, Mavericks (2nd)

    • Third Base - Alex Bregman, Darkhorses (2nd)

    • Shortstop - Trevor Story, Cougars (1st)

    • Outfield - Charlie Blackmon, Cougars (3rd)

    • Outfield - Mike Trout, Mavericks (8th)

    • Outfield - Christian Yelich, Darkhorses (1st)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher - Yasmani Grandal, Mavericks (1st)

    • Third Base - Eduardo Escobar, Mavericks (1st)

    • Third Base - Mike Moustakas, Kings (1st)

    • Shortstop - Xander Bogaerts, Darkhorses (2nd)

    • Outfield - George Springer, Darkhorses (3rd)

    • Outfield - Mookie Betts, Kings (3rd)

    • Pitcher - Justin Verlander, Kings (6th)

    • Pitcher - Jose Berrios, Darkhorses (1st)

    • Pitcher - Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses (2nd)

    • Pitcher - Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks (4th)

    • Relief Pitcher - Brad Hand, Darkhorses (2nd)

    • Relief Pitcher - Kenley Jansen, Mavericks (6th)

    • Relief Pitcher - Will Smith, Kings (1st)

    • Relief Pitcher - Alex Colome, Cougars (1st)

    All-Stars per team:

    • 7 - Darkhorses

    • 6 - Jackalope, Komodos, Mavericks

    • 5 - Kings

    • 4 - Moonshiners, Naturals

    • 3 - Choppers, Cougars

    • 2 - Demigods

     

    For the record, the 23rd player selections were a pair of third basemen:  Anthony Rendon and Mike Moustakas.  Although Rendon actually found himself in a three way tie for the starting spot as well, so his roster spot was well earned.  Some of the notable players who weren't able to make the cut include Moonshiners shortstop Tim Anderson, Demigods second baseman Ketel Marte and Mavericks outfielder Juan Soto.  Here are the full voting results.  More All-Star Game coverage coming soon.

  • Pitching Vets Continue Dominance

    Embed from Getty Images The first half of the 2019 season is in the books.  As covered last month, we remain on pace to have the league total home run record smashed and the highest pitching ERA in well over a decade.  MLB saw the record for most home runs hit in a month fall for a second consecutive month in June.  In the DTBL, we just missed the May total with three fewer homers hit by active players (596).

    What stands out to me in perusing the DTBL leaderboards is the stark contrast in experience between the league's top hitters and pitchers.  On the offensive side of things, there are a few veterans mixed in, but for the most part, the most productive batters are all in their 20s.  On the flip side, the league's best pitchers are all guys who have been dominating hitters for a decade or so.  Currently, the youngest pitcher in the top five of Pitching PAR is 32 year old Hyun-Jin Ryu.  The average age of those five hurlers is about 35 years old.  Joining the Naturals Ryu in that group of impressive veterans are the Kings Max Scherzer (34) and Justin Verlander (36), and Mooshiners Zack Greinke (35) and Charlie Morton (35).

    I'm not sure what to make of the continued success of all these veteran pitchers.  Perhaps this is why teams were mostly uninterested in paying huge money on long term deals to hitters this past winter, while the market's top free agent pitcher, Patrick Corbin, was signed before Christmas.  For a long time, teams were unwilling to sign almost any pitcher to a long term contract.  But now pitchers appear to be the safer bets to continue to be highly productive well into their 30s.  That would seem to bode well for upcoming free agent pitchers like Gerrit Cole and potentially Stephen Strasburg, should he opt-out of his current deal.

    Much to come in the upcoming days, including the announcement of the 2019 DTBL All-Star rosters.  So let's get straight to the June award winners.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/3 - 6/9) - Edwin Encarnacion, Darkhorses Week 12 (6/10 - 6/16) - Charlie Blackmon, Cougars Week 13 (6/17 - 6/23) - D.J. LeMahieu, Choppers Week 14 (6/24 - 6/30) - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/3 - 6/9) - Walker Buehler, Komodos Week 12 (6/10 - 6/16) - Trevor Bauer, Choppers Week 13 (6/17 - 6/23) - Tyler Skaggs, Kings Week 14 (6/24 - 6/30) - Max Scherzer, Kings

    Well, I suppose this is as good a place as any to mention the tragic passing of 27 year old Angels and Kings pitcher Tyler Skaggs earlier this week.  Skaggs was an eighth round selection of the Kings in this year's draft and did a very nice job for the team, shuffling into and out of the lineup since early May.  As you can see above, he had a very strong final week in the lineup for the Kings in late June.  Skaggs also appeared for the Naturals in 2015.  From all accounts, he was a great person in addition to being a quality big league pitcher.  He will be missed.  RIP Tyler Skaggs.

    Batter of the Month:

    Ronald Acuna, Jackalope .331 AVG, 9 HR, 21 RBI, 28 R, 6 SB, 3.36 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings 1.00 ERA, 0.667 WHIP, 6 W, 0 SV, 68 K, 5.34 PAR

    Ronald Acuna is continuing to prove the Jackalope correct for selecting him with the first overall pick in this year's draft, not that anyone was ever questioning that pick anyway.  June was his best month yet though.  He showed off his prowess in all five categories.  He is currently fifth in the league in Batting PAR and joins Christian Yelich as the only two players with 20+ home runs and double digit stolen bases.  This was a very tight race though.  Had Cougars outfielder Charlie Blackmon not missed the first week of the month from the Cougars active roster, he would have finished in a virtual tie with Acuna.  Acuna's Braves teammate, Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman had a great June as well.

    The race for June Pitcher of the Month was not close.  At this stage of his career, it is hard to rank all of the great Max Scherzer moments.  He has won a pair of DTBL Cy Young awards and three MLB Cy Youngs.  He has pitched two no-hitters and had a 20 strikeout game.  But June of 2019 might be the single best month of his distinguished career.  He even broke his nose in the middle of it, bouncing back to strike out 10 Phillies in seven scoreless innings a day later.  That might have been his most impressive outing of the month, but it wasn't the best statistically.  In two other starts, he struck out at least 14 batters allowing a single run and one or zero walks.  The complete picture was arguably the best pitching month in DTBL history.  No other DTBL pitcher has ever posted a single month with a 1.00 or lower ERA, 65+ strikeouts and six wins.  His 5.34 June PAR would be a great full season total for most pitchers.  This is the fourth consecutive year that Scherzer has won a Pitcher of the Month award and the third time in that span that he has won it in June.  The awards keep rolling in for the incomparable Scherzer.  Komodos rookie Walker Buehler and Jackalope righty Gerrit Cole finished second and third for this award, but neither had even half of Scherzer's PAR total.

  • April Showers Bring May Power

    Embed from Getty Images
    A new single month league-wide home run record was set in MLB in May. 1,135 home runs were hit across baseball this past month, surpassing the previous record of 1,119 in August of 2017. The full season home run record is on pace to be smashed again this season. In the DTBL, I don’t really have a reasonably easy way of determining if this same record was broken, but it is probably safe to assume if it wasn’t, we didn’t miss by much. There were 599 home runs hit by active DTBL players in May. As of this writing on the 6th of June, we are at 1,306 home runs for the season, which is easily above the pace of the record setting 3,231 DTBL homers way back in 2000. Just five years ago, 2014, there were 2,294 home runs hit the entire season. We figure to reach that mark before the end of July this year.  And to think we haven’t even reached the dog days of summer when typically balls fly out of the park at an even higher rate.

    On an individual player level, the DTBL did miss out on some of the month’s top home run production, however.  Three of the six players who hit at least 10 home runs in May were not on active rosters for the full month.  Only four of Josh Bell’s dozen homers were after he was activated by the Darkhorses.  Derek Dietrich shocked and confused the baseball world by hitting a dozen homers as well, despite not garnering a DTBL player pool spot.  And rookie Pete Alonso continues to make himself an intriguing draft candidate for next season as he slugged 10 home runs in May.  Of players who actually did produce a full month of stats for DTBL teams, Alex Bregman led the way with 12 home runs, while a pair of Cougars, Jose Abreu and Kris Bryant each hit 10.

    Meanwhile, things remain tight near the top of the DTBL standings.  As the calendar turned to June, the Naturals held an ever so slight half point lead over the Kings and four other teams were five or fewer points behind the leader.  Even the eight place team was within 15 points.  So almost everybody remains alive and well heading into the summer months.  May was a great month for the Naturals, in particular.  Not only did they finish the month at the top of the standings, but their players swept the monthly awards as well.  But first, here are the batters and pitchers of the week from May.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 6 (4/29 – 5/5) – Alex Bregman, Darkhorses
    Week 7 (5/6 – 5/12) – George Springer, Darkhorses
    Week 8 (5/13 – 5/19) – Freddie Freeman, Demigods
    Week 9 (5/20 – 5/26) – Rafael Devers, Moonshiners
    Week 10 (5/27 – 6/2) – Austin Meadows, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 6 (4/29 – 5/5) – Noah Syndergaard, Naturals
    Week 7 (5/6 – 5/12) – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals
    Week 8 (5/13 – 5/19) – Joe Musgrove, Mavericks
    Week 9 (5/20 – 5/26) – Brad Peacock, Demigods
    Week 10 (5/27 – 6/2) – Max Scherzer, Kings

    The Demigods are having a tough season so far, but they do keep racking up these weekly awards as DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Meadows has now won a pair of weekly honors sandwiching his time on the IL.  Brad Peacock’s honor is notable because relief pitchers rarely ever win these awards.  Of course, Peacock isn’t actually a reliever this season for the Astros, but still interesting.  The Naturals had a whole bunch of players who had great months of May, led by a pair of NL West stars.

    Batter of the Month:

    Nolan Arenado, Naturals
    .425 AVG, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 25 R, 0 SB, 3.29 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals
    0.59 ERA, 0.679 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 4.35 PAR

    Nolan Arenado is leading the Naturals in every offensive category except stolen bases and is near the top of the league in most categories as well.  The perennial All-Star and MVP candidate is quite possibly having his best offensive season so far in 2019.  In May, he led the league with a ridiculous .425 average and 29 runs batted in.  Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich got off to a huge lead in the Batting PAR race in April, but in May, Arenado and his Rockies teammate Trevor Story started to close the gap.  Already at 4.2, Arenado appears to be a lock to reach 6+ PAR for a fifth straight season.  For the record, Darkhorses first baseman Josh Bell would have won this award had he spent the entire month on the active roster.  Instead, Arenado won by a decent margin over Cougars shortstop Story and Moonshiners third baseman Rafael Devers.  It was a strong month for left side of the infielders as Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman rounded out the top five.

    Perhaps the biggest surprise of the month was the eye-popping numbers posted by Naturals lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Unlike most of the game’s top pitchers, Ryu doesn’t strike out an overwhelming rate of hitters.  Instead, he just never lets them reach base.  His May ERA of 0.59 was the league’s lowest monthly total since Jordan Zimmermann’s 0.55 in April of 2016 (min. 30 IP).  If you bump the inning threshold up to 40, then you have to go back to Jake Arrieta’s ridiculous final two months of 2015.  Ryu’s 0.679 WHIP was similarly rare.  Ryu currently leads the league in ERA (1.21), a full run better than second place Justin Verlander (2.27).  Needless to say, if he were to somehow keep that up for the full season, he would break Greg Maddux’s record of 1.56 back in 1994.  Ryu won this award in a landslide, a full point ahead of runner up Kyle Hendricks of the Moonshiners (Hendricks wasn’t activated until 5/6, so he probably didn’t actually finished second, but I’m too lazy to do the math).  Last month’s winner, Kings veteran Justin Verlander was also in the mix.

  • Someone Old, Someone New

    Embed from Getty Images Five weeks into the 2019 season, it is apparent that we will not have a repeat of 2018 in the DTBL where a single team dominated the league nearly from start to finish.  The Jackalope broke out to an early lead in the first couple weeks of the season, but since then, first place has been a revolving door.  The month of April ended with the Jackalope on top, but five other teams were within nine points of the lead.  It has been a rough start to the season for the Demigods and a couple other teams need to pick it up. But for the most part, everybody is well positioned as we move into May.

    On a macro level, the early season trends in baseball have been fewer hits (lower batting averages), more strikeouts and a lot more home runs.  The current league batting average of .260 would break last season's low water mark of .262.  But overall, offense is up, with the league ERA soaring to 3.89, which is higher than any full season league ERA since 2006.  The league WHIP is up as well.  So while pitchers are allowing fewer hits, they are actually surrendering more base runners due to a spike in walks.

    As you might expect with some of these extreme statistical increases, several individual players are off to record breaking paces as well.  Komodos outfielder Cody Bellinger and Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich each slugged 14 home runs in March/April.  That ties a league record for most home runs in the first month of the season, matching Albert Pujols in 2006 and Alex Rodriguez in 2007.  Bellinger's 37 RBI are an April record and his 32 runs also ties the record.  Spoiler alert, Bellinger will be mentioned again below.  Jackalope pitcher Gerrit Cole struck out 65 batters in the first month, which also ties a league record set by Curt Schilling in April of 1998.

    Again this year, I'm going to write monthly posts like this one, recapping the weekly and monthly award winners.  Here are the batters and pitchers of the week for the first five weeks of the 2019 season.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (3/20 - 3/31) - Cody Bellinger, Komodos Week 2 (4/1 - 4/7) - Anthony Rendon, Jackalope Week 3 (4/8 - 4/14) - Austin Meadows, Demigods Week 4 (4/15 - 4/21) - Christian Yelich, Darkhorses Week 5 (4/22 - 4/28) - Luke Voit, Naturals

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (3/20 - 3/31) - Jose Berrios, Darkhorses Week 2 (4/1 - 4/7) - Mike Clevinger, Naturals Week 3 (4/8 - 4/14) - Blake Snell, Cougars Week 4 (4/15 - 4/21) - James Paxton, Naturals Week 5 (4/22 - 4/28) - J.A. Happ, Komodos

    Unfortunately, April was a rough month from an injury perspective for players who were off to hot starts.  Exactly half of the players listed above wound up hitting the injured list shortly after earning their weekly honor.  Rendon and Meadows would have been in the conversation for Batter of the Month if not for their injuries.  Bellinger and Yelich, on the other hand, have remained healthy and are off to historically fast starts.  But only one of them can win the month's top honor.  That goes to...

    Batter of the Month:

    Cody Bellinger, Komodos .431 AVG, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, 5 SB, 4.64 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Justin Verlander, Kings 2.45 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 53 K, 3.31 PAR

    An old guy and a (relative) newcomer.  23 year old Cody Bellinger not only had arguably the best month of April in league history, but on the short list for best months at any point of the season.  He is only the fourth player to ever hit 14+ homers with an average over .400 for an entire month (or a month and 4 days, in this case).  The others were Juan Gonzalez in July of 1996, Albert Belle in July of 1998 and Barry Bonds in September/October of 2001.  But Bellinger had a higher average than all of them, scored the most runs of the foursome and easily stole the most bases.  I don't have monthly PAR calculations going back that far, but I would guess Bellinger's was the best in league history.  While his rookie campaign of '18 was slightly disappointing for the Komodos, it appears they are getting everything they could have hoped for out of him this season.  It was unfortunate for Yelich to not have won this award because his numbers were insane as well.  Moonshiners shortstop Tim Anderson came in third.

    Justin Verlander's late career resurgence has continued into his age 36 season.  Last year's third place finisher in the Cy Young vote has started this season on top of the Pitching PAR leaderboard.  His 0.86 WHIP led all starting pitchers in March/April.  With 53 strikeouts in 44 innings, he's also maintaining an impressive strikeout ratio.  He is currently keeping the Kings pitching staff afloat, as no other starting pitcher on the team has a PAR over 1.  Verlander last won this monthly honor last June.  This award could have gone to a bunch of different pitchers.  Verlander barely edged out the Jackalope duo of Tyler Glasnow and Luis Castillo and Choppers righty Trevor Bauer.

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part IV

    Embed from Getty Images The final part of the 2019 DTBL season preview will cover the three teams projected to be the cream of the crop.  Two of the three were among the worst teams in the league a year ago.  However, a close examination of their rosters indicates that their struggles in 2018 were not due to a lack of talent.  Also, those rosters have been enhanced with some key additions via draft and trade.  The third team is less surprising, as they are the defending champions.  In the projected standings, there is an eight point gap between these teams and all of the ones covered previously, but only three points separate this trio.  In fact, spoiler alert, there is a projected tie for the top spot.  If you would like to skip to the bottom to see the full standings projections, be my guest.  But here are the three teams projected to be the top championship contenders in 2019.

    Nick's Naturals

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 5th (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 8th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (10th)

    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (3rd)

    • Wins - 9th (4th)

    • Saves - 2nd (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)

    • Total Points - 3rd (8th)

    Summary:

    Last year was a huge disappointment for the Naturals.  In this preview series a year ago, they were picked to finish second.  Poor performances and injuries knocked them out of contention early though.  It is safe to say they were not fielding their most capable lineup down the stretch either, causing them to finish in eighth place, their worst finish since 2008.  That allowed them to select Juan Soto with the third pick in the draft, who they immediately traded to the Mavericks for Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi should be one of their best all around players right from the start.  He will provide a boost to an offense that was kind of a disaster a year ago, finishing in last place in all of the counting categories.  Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner are their top returning hitters.  They do not appear to be as deep as the other top offenses in the league, but any improvement over last season will be much welcomed.  Some of that improvement could come from a bunch of their young guys who could be breakout candidates, including Yoan Moncado, Victor Robles and Amed Rosario.  The Naturals don't need to be the best offense in the league.  But as long as they bounce back to at least the middle of the pack, they should be in good shape.  While the '18 offense was a train wreck, the pitching staff was not.  They finished third in pitching points and enter this season with the core of the staff remaining intact.  Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton give them an excellent top of the rotation.  The bullpen is one of the league's best, headlined by Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias.  But the main man is Josh Hader, who provided impressive value to the Naturals last year despite not being a closer.  With Corey Knebel out for the season, Hader figures to add plenty of saves to his resume as well.  One thing that stuck out to me when reviewing the Naturals 2018 roster is how many of their castoffs were coveted by other teams and drafted relatively early.  You don't see that much from a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.  It indicates that this team is loaded with talent.  A jump from eighth to third place would be pretty impressive, but the pieces are there for it to be a realistic expectation.

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (8th)

    • Home Runs - 2nd (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)

    • Wins - 2nd (8th)

    • Saves - 3rd (7th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (7th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (8th)

    • Total Points - 1st-T (10th)

    Summary:

    While the five place jump projected for the Naturals is impressive, it pales in comparison to the Jackalope forecast.  The team that finished dead last in 2018 is now projected to tie for a league championship a year later.  If you are scoffing at this possibility, you shouldn't be.  This league has a history of teams bouncing from the bottom to the top in short order.  Just last year, the Kings won the championship a season removed from finishing ninth.  Also, it has basically been the story of the Jackalope franchise history.  They are almost never mediocre.  They either contend for the championship or finish near the bottom.  After three straight years of the latter, it would seem this season could see them return to the former.  The main reason for the optimistic outlook is the difference-making talent they added in the draft.  The two players in the draft pool with the highest projected PAR for this season were Ronald Acuna and Adalberto Mondesi.  They added both.  Acuna was the first pick in the draft and they traded up to grab Mondesi at the end of the first round.  Only two players are projected for a higher batting PAR than Mondesi (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), who combines power with elite speed.  Acuna figures to be a five category stud himself.  But it isn't just the newcomers who have impressive projections.  Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Gary Sanchez are all among the best players at their positions.  Barring terrible injury luck, this will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  Whether or not they can actually contend for the championship will depend on the pitching staff, which was also not very good last year.  Gerrit Cole is the staff ace and should be one of the best pitchers in the game again this year.  His running mate from a year ago, Luis Severino, is a bit of a wild card this season though as he begins the season on the injured list with a bum shoulder.  It is paramount that they get him back sooner than later.  Otherwise, they will be counting on guys like Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow to have huge breakout years.  Their bullpen should be pretty good, but Wade Davis is the only safe bet to tally big save numbers.  The pitching staff should be better than last year, but there is not much room for error.  One thing is pretty clear though:  2019 is going to be a much better season for the Jackalope.

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (9th)

    • Home Runs - 4th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)

    • Runs Scored - 9th (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (5th)

    • Earned Run Average - 1st (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)

    • Wins - 4th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 4th (3rd)

    • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 6th-T (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (1st)

    • Total Points - 1st-T (1st)

    Summary:

    It is not surprising to see the defending champion picked to win it all again (in a tie, in this case).  However, the 2018 Kings weren't your typical champions.  They won the league in large part because they had historically good seasons from three players, built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the first half, but then hung on for dear life as most of the roster struggled badly in the second half of the season.  This was not a deep roster.  But the Kings do believe the roster will be better from top to bottom this season.  The projections point towards similar results as last year:  a mediocre offense and the best pitching staff in the league.  On the pitching front, it was all Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year ago.  The rest of the rotation was kind of a disaster and the bullpen wasn't great either.  Their first place ranking in pitching points was a testament to just how good Scherzer and Verlander were.  They return this year, of course, but are obviously both another year older.  They do have some interesting complementary pieces this time around though.  Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney were early round draft picks and both should be able to improve upon the non-Scherzer/Verlander parts of the Kings rotation.  The bullpen features three closers, at least to start the season, in Sean Doolittle, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino.  This has a chance to be the league's best pitching staff again this year.  In order to repeat though, the Kings will probably need a better offense than these projections portend.  Defending league MVP Mookie Betts is the only Kings hitter on the shortlist of the best players in the league.  But there are a handful of under the radar players who could be key contributors this season:  Rhys Hoskins, David Dahl, Adam Eaton and Mike Moustakas (I would have had Matt Olson on this list as well had he not broken his hand last week).  If enough of these guys can provide at least slightly above average production, the Kings offense should be good enough to contend again.  They will likely get a more spirited charge from other teams though, as at least half of the teams in the league could be championship contenders.

    Here are the full 2019 projected standings.  The three teams covered above appear to be the top championship contenders, but certainly a whole bunch of other teams could make a charge as well and render these numbers meaningless.  It should be another fun season!

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images Happy Opening Day Eve!  Yeah, there are already a couple games in the books, but things get started for real tomorrow.  I, for one, can not wait!  As we move into the top half of the projected standings, we've already seen a lot of surprises.  This third part of the preview series will cover a pair of teams that are similar in terms of projected strength in 2019, but are otherwise quite different in composition, strengths and weaknesses.  Finishing close in the standings wouldn't be all that strange though, considering they finished last season with identical point totals.  I'm leaving three teams for the final part of this series because these projections have those three comfortably ahead of the pair I'm about to cover.  Look for that sometime this weekend.  In the meantime, here are a couple teams projected to finish near the middle of the pack this season.

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th-T)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (8th)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)

    • Wins - 6th (6th-T)

    • Saves - 1st (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th-T (8th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (4th)

    • Total Points - 5th (6th-T)

    Summary:

    Perhaps no team looks more like the 2018 version of itself than the Moonshiners.  These projections show them gaining a few points in RBIs, dropping a few in strikeouts, but otherwise staying almost exactly the same.  There is a pretty solid explanation for that.  The core of players who they will be counting on to carry them this season hasn't changed.  Several of their newest additions are future bets, like first round pick Shohei Ohtani, who will moonlight as a hitter this season before likely taking over as their staff ace next year.  One alarming issue the Moonshiners have heading into the season is a slew of injuries.  Most of those were known before these projections were generated though, so that in and of itself isn't a reason to doubt the projections.  Last year, the Moonshiners obliterated the league record for worst team batting average, hitting just .231, 18 points behind the next worst mark (also the Moonshiners, 2016).  They are projected to hit .252 this year, which is still worst in the league, but a huge improvement.  For a while now, they have lacked huge star power on the offense.  That still appears to be the case as Ohtani has the second highest batting PAR projection on the team, trailing only Khris Davis.  But Michael Conforto and Aaron Hicks are two underrated outfielders who could give them a nice boost this season.  The pitching staff is basically the same as last year.  It is a solid, yet unspectacular group.  All five likely members of their Opening Day rotation are above average pitchers:  Zack Greinke, German Marquez, Robbie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and Charlie Morton.  Marquez was the big surprise of the group last season as he was the first especially valuable Rockies pitcher in quite some time.  The bullpen is very good as well, currently projected to lead the league in saves.  Edwin Diaz will have a hard time duplicating his 57 saves from a year ago, but is still arguably the best closer in baseball.  Roberto Osuna is in the upper echelon as well.  The Moonshiners seem to be focused on building a solid core for the future, using early draft picks on payers like Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  But they are in a position to contend should a few guys take big steps forward this season.

    Marc's Mavericks

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 1st (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 10th (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 6th (9th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (9th)

    • Wins - 8th (10th)

    • Saves - 10th (6th)

    • Strike Outs - 4th (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 1st (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (10th)

    • Total Points - 4th (6th-T)

    Summary:

    This section requires a whole assortment of caveats.  In fact, I wouldn't pay much attention to the numbers above if I were you.  No team is harder to pin down on expectations for 2019.  Last season, the Mavericks pitching staff was absolutely ravaged by injuries.  Every one of their key starters missed significant time.  What was once the best pitching staff in the league, by far, wound up finishing dead last in pitching points in 2018.  In what I assume was an effort to avoid a repeat of that, the Mavericks have loaded their bench with pitching depth.  Their post-draft roster consisted of the minimum 14 batters and a league high 14 pitchers.  Since these projections take all 28 players into account, it is safe to assume that the pitching projections are hurt with more pitchers diluting the numbers of their best guys.  On the flip side, they have far less dilution of the offensive numbers compared to most teams.  So the overall point projection for the Mavericks is probably fair.  But I'd tack on a handful of pitching points and shave off a few from the batting side of the ledger.  One thing is certain:  the Mavericks will mash.  No team has a larger collection of superstar sluggers.  A draft day trade to acquire Juan Soto gives them an envious outfield trio of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, all of whom could be MVP candidates.  The infield isn't bad either, especially with Manny Machado, Javy Baez and Ozzie Albies up the middle.  The only offensive weakness is stolen bases, where they are projected to finish last.  The Mavericks fortunes this season will come down to pitching.  As previously stated, the have a large stable of pitchers to turn to in the event that their starters can't stay healthy again.  But ideally, they will be able to turn to Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty to easily smash last year's numbers as well as these projections.  The bullpen is not the dominant force it used to be, but with Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc, I'd say there is a good chance they won't finish last in saves as they are projected here.  The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from their worst finish since 2011.  They have an excellent chance to do that.  But trying to use these projections to determine their fate may be a losing cause.