Archive for the ‘Mavericks’ Category

Judge Earns Second MVP

Wednesday, November 26th, 2025

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The Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani debate is one we no longer get to have when it comes to MLB MVP awards since Ohtani switched to the National League and both superstars are the default favorites for their league’s MVP award every season.  But in the DTBL, that competition is alive and well.  Both players had their typical otherworldly seasons in 2025, propelling them to winning the MVP award in each league once again.  Ohtani’s extra greatness of not only being one of the best two hitters in all of baseball is that he also happens to be one of the best pitchers too.  That doesn’t play into his DTBL value though where he is only allowed to impact the Moonshiners roster on one side each year.  So when comparing their hitting accomplishments only, MVP voters preferred Judge by a comfortable margin as he propelled the Mavericks to their second consecutive league title.  Aaron Judge is the 2025 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

What has been really incredible about the career arc of Judge is that he has maintained his status as the best power hitter in the game while becoming an even better all around hitter.  This season, he led the league with a .331 batting average.  Only five players in the entire league cleared the .300 benchmark, while Judge did so by 31 points.  His DTBL career batting average is now on the verge of going over .300 as well, currently sitting at .299.  Judge also set a career high in runs scored with 137, the second highest total in the league.  Amusingly, his league standing in those two categories was higher than in his bread and butter categories of home runs and runs batted in, where he was still among the top five.  He hit 53 homers and drove in 114.  This is the third time in the past four years that he has surpassed 50 home runs in a season.  For good measure, he also stole a dozen bases.  His 11.4 Batting PAR bested Ohtani and all others by more than a point.  He now holds three of the top eight single season Batting PAR totals since 2005.

The Mavericks blitzed the rest of the league in batting points, thanks in large part to Judge.  Even with Mike Trout on the downside of his career, they still have an incredibly loaded outfield, led by Judge and fellow MVP candidate Juan Soto.  Judge is probably the best free agent signing in DTBL history.  He went undrafted in 2017 when the Mavericks signed him a few weeks into the season.  They have been reaping the rewards ever since.  He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2017 and also finished third in the MVP vote that season.  This is the second time he has been named the DTBL Most Valuable Player.  The first time was in 2022, which was probably his best season to date.  That year, he broke the AL single season home run record with 62 while hitting .311 with 16 stolen bases.  The other season in the discussion for his best was last year when he hit .322 with 58 homers.  That would have been a MVP campaign almost any other year.  However, Ohtani had the first ever 50/50 season a year ago, relegating Judge to a second place finish in the MVP vote.

This year’s MVP vote was nearly the inverse of last year in the top two spots.  A year ago, Ohtani got 9 of 10 first place tallies with Judge receiving a single one.  This year, Judge garnered nine of the ten, with one second, to finish with 97 points.  Ohtani got the other first with eight seconds.  He was dropped to fourth on one ballot though, tallying 69 total points.  The Moonshiners superstar hit 55 home runs, but the stolen bases dropped considerably from a year ago, with “only” 20 swipes on the season.  This is the fourth time in the past five years that Ohtani has finished in the top five of the MVP vote.  Finishing third is Judge’s Mavericks teammate and former Yankees teammate Juan Soto.  Somewhat surprising considering his consistent dominance, this is Soto’s highest MVP finish to date.  His batting average took a bit of a step back from his career norms, but he more than made up for that by setting a career high with 43 home runs and obliterating his career high in stolen bases with 38.  Prior to this year, he had never stolen more than a dozen bases in a season.  Soto received the one second place vote that didn’t go to Ohtani or Judge and was no lower than fourth on any of the ten ballots.  That computes to 42 points.  Probably the biggest debate during MLB award season was Judge vs. Cal Raleigh for AL MVP.  Raleigh led the league with 60 home runs, becoming the fifth different player in DTBL history to ever reach the 60 mark.  What made that even more incredible is that he did so while catching 121 games at an elite defensive level.  Obviously the defensive value isn’t relevant to fantasy baseball, but providing offensive numbers like that while occupying a traditionally weak positional slot is extremely valuable.  For years now, I have been playing around with a modified version of PAR that does include a positional adjustment.  Perhaps this winter would be a good time to implement such a change so we can get a better understanding of just how valuable Raleigh is compared to his catching counterparts.  He will have to settle for a fourth place finish in this year’s MVP vote though.  The Jackalope backstop received six third place votes and 35 total points.  Finishing in the fifth spot is another guy who is on the periphery of the MVP discussion basically every year.  Komodos third baseman Jose Ramirez had his second straight 30/40 season.  He hit exactly 30 homers this year while stealing a career high 44 bases.  This is the fifth time in his career that he has finished in the top five for the MVP award, yet he has never been higher than fourth place.  He appeared on eight of the ten ballots, all in the fourth and fifth place slots, for 14 voting points.

Click here to view the full voting results.

So the Moonshiners weren’t quite able to sweep the 2025 DTBL awards.  It is the second straight year they have taken two of the three though.  All three of the awards went to players on teams who finished in the top two spots in the standings.  Thanks to everyone for taking the time to vote a few weeks ago and apologies on being so tardy in actually announcing the winners.  Now we turn our eyes to the 2025 season.  Have a great Thanksgiving!

Mavericks Run It Back

Friday, October 31st, 2025

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Happy Halloween!  With the World Series potentially ending tonight and certainly no later than tomorrow (barring another 18 inning marathon), we’re about to move onto awards season.  So if I’m going to finally get around to recapping our own season which ended over a month ago, this is the last chance.  With that in mind, I’m trying something new here.  I decided to use AI (ChatGPT) to write almost all of what follows this paragraph.  I imagine a couple of you are very much against the use of AI to write articles.  Believe me, I’m very sympathetic of that viewpoint.  However, this feels like an ideal use case.  I am decidedly *not* a professional writer, I don’t enjoy writing, and am increasingly unmotivated to actually do so.  So it was basically try this out or no Mavericks championship recap for the second straight year.  We’ll see how it goes.  Perhaps this will eventually lead to more site content down the road.  I definitely intend to use it to recap future All-Star games.  In fact, reading about using AI to recap OOTP simulations is actually what gave me this idea in the first place.  Anyway, I now turn it over to our AI overlords…

In a league that rewards careful roster construction and long-term planning, sustained excellence is difficult to achieve. But in 2025, Marc’s Mavericks proved once again that their success is no accident. With a final tally of 79.5 roto points, the Mavericks captured their second consecutive Dream Team Baseball League championship and the fifth title in franchise history, adding another chapter to what has quietly become one of the DTBL’s most consistent and well-run organizations.

The Mavericks didn’t win with overwhelming dominance in a single category. They won by assembling a roster that performed at an above-average level across nearly all facets of the game. Their offense ranked among the league’s best in home runs, RBIs, and runs scored, while their pitching staff delivered exceptional ratios and anchored the team’s week-to-week stability. The result was a club that rarely experienced prolonged slumps — the hallmark of championship-caliber roto construction.

Few DTBL lineups could match the Mavericks’ combination of star power and depth. At the center of the attack was Aaron Judge, whose 53 home runs, 114 RBI, and league-leading 11.4 PAR made him one of fantasy’s most impactful players. Right behind him, Juan Soto delivered another season of elite on-base skills and power, his 43 HR, 105 RBI, and 9.7 PAR placing him among the league’s most valuable hitters. Bobby Witt Jr. added a rare all-category foundation with 23 HR, 38 SB, a batting average near .290, and 8.0 PAR.

Around them, the supporting cast continued to produce. Manny Machado delivered another excellent season with 27 HR and 95 RBI, while Ozzie Albies, Willy Adames, and William Contreras each posted positive PAR seasons that reinforced every corner of the lineup. Complementary pieces like Jarren Duran and Jazz Chisholm Jr. added needed speed, athleticism, and situational power. From top to bottom, the Mavericks’ offense played with a level of consistency that kept them among the league’s scoring leaders throughout the season.

The Mavericks’ pitching strategy was as deliberate as it was effective, built around stability, ratios, and reliable strikeout production. Freddy Peralta’s 17 wins, 2.70 ERA, and 204 strikeouts made him one of the league’s most valuable starters. Hunter Brown was nearly as dominant with a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts, and newcomer Yoshinobu Yamamoto immediately proved his worth with a 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 201 Ks. As one of the league’s strongest Rookie of the Year candidates — and tremendous value as the 10th overall pick in the DTBL draft — Yamamoto gave the Mavericks an anchor-level arm from day one. It is rare for any team to field a trio of double-digit PAR pitchers; the Mavericks made it look routine.

In the bullpen, Mason Miller emerged as a high-leverage force, collecting 22 saves with elite strikeout rates and a 2.63 ERA. Edwin Uceta added steadiness and flexibility, giving Marc valuable support in late innings and preserving the staff’s excellent ratios. The combination allowed the Mavericks to finish first in ERA and WHIP while still pulling strong point totals from strikeouts.

With the 2025 title, the Mavericks now stand at five championships: 2004, 2006, 2017, 2024, and 2025. They have finished in the top three 13 times and in the top five 18 times, a level of long-term competitiveness unmatched in most fantasy leagues. Rarely does a franchise sustain relevance for two decades; even rarer is one that regularly contends for league titles across multiple eras of scoring environments and player valuation trends.

The back-to-back championships in 2024 and 2025 underscore more than a hot streak. They reflect a franchise identity built on disciplined drafting, efficient roster usage, and a clear understanding of how value is constructed in a 10-team roto environment. This was not a team that relied on a few breakouts or a lucky waiver pickup. It was a team in which every active roster spot produced value.

The 2025 season demonstrated the same qualities that have defined the Mavericks for years: balance, discipline, and a keen eye for player value. As a result, Marc’s squad now stands as the premier benchmark for roster construction in the Dream Team Baseball League. With a young core still in their prime and a proven approach that has delivered across eras, the Mavericks don’t just look like champions — they look like a franchise positioned to contend for years to come.  The rest of the DTBL may rise and challenge again, but for now, the Mavericks remain the franchise everyone else is chasing.

2025 Season Preview: Part III

Sunday, March 30th, 2025

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The first weekend of the 2025 MLB season has come to an end.  Early indications are the Yankees might torpedo the record book if they keep up their current home run pace.  Nothing like an equipment controversy to get the season started!

This brings us to the final installment of our 2025 DTBL season preview series.  My cutoff decision for which teams will be covered in which sections is generally determined by grouping teams that are all expected to finish closely bunched in the standings.  That was true of both of the first two parts this year.  That is not exactly the case for this last one though.  The team that is projected to win the league this year has no peer according to these rankings.  They would have deserved their own article if my grouping rule was strictly enforced.  That’s not to say these other two teams don’t look strong in their own right though.  This final group contains last year’s top two teams joined by what would be the team with the biggest jump in the standings this year if these numbers turn out correct.  These are the teams projected to finish in the top three spots in the standings.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (8th)
  • Wins – 4th (5th-T)
  • Saves – 1st (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (8th)

Summary:

Here we have the biggest movers relative to their 2024 finish in this preview series.  It makes some sense because last year was a bit of an aberration for the Darkhorses who fell to eighth place a year after finishing a close second.  Their fall can almost entirely be pinned on being without arguably their best two starting pitchers and best relief pitcher for almost the entire season.  These projections show them returning to their prior spot as the top pitching staff in the league.  Whether or not you believe such a turnaround is possible depends on the belief in Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom and Felix Bautista returning to their pre-injury form and doing it for most of the season.  Logan Webb, Hunter Greene and Sonny Gray join Strider and deGrom to make up what projects to be the best rotation in the league.  But it remains to be seen if Strider and deGrom will be able to recapture their prior stuff and remain healthy throughout the season.  Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff were nice insurance adds in the draft, though the latter is also coming back from his own major injury.  The Darkhorses managed to finish second in the league in saves last year even without Bautista.  So having him back in the mix along with Andres Munoz, Robert Suarez, Chris Martin and maybe even Calvin Faucher make them the favorites to lead the way in saves this year.  Unless injuries ravage the Darkhorses again, the pitching staff is too good for them to finish near the bottom of the standings again this year.  Whether or not they can contend for a title will depend on if the offense is able to take a big step forward.  Interestingly, the Darkhorses have an overall third place projection despite also having one of the poorest batting point projections in the league.  That’s because only two players are projected for Batting PAR totals over 3:  Bryce Harper and third overall draft pick Jackson Merrill.  Merrill provides the most hope for an improved offense.  He will supplement a mostly veteran lineup.  In the outfield, Merrill is joined by Christian Yelich, George Springer, Taylor Ward and Cedric Mullins.  The infield is also full of veterans like Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa.  The infield youth injection is second round pick Jackson Holliday, who had a rough introduction to the big leagues last year.  But at this time a year ago, he was the consensus top prospect in the game, so enormous upside still remains.  Another pre-prime infielder on the roster is shortstop Masyn Winn.  This third place projection does make sense for a talented Darkhorses roster.  Their most likely path to this sort of finish though will require more offensive production because there are just too many health concerns on the pitching front to be confident of them racking up 46 out of 50 possible pitching points.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
  • Wins – 2nd (1st-T)
  • Saves – 6th (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

The Moonshiners are the only team projected to finish within shouting distance of the top dog.  They are similarly one of only two teams that are projected to be above average in both batting and pitching points.  Most years a roster like this might even come out on top of such an exercise.  Of course, it would be pretty hard *not* to have an above average offense with Shohei Ohtani on the squad.  He comfortably leads the league in projected Batting PAR at an incredible 10.6, two points higher than any other player.  He’s not doing it alone though.  Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr are also among the top hitters in the league.  Ohtani and Tucker are joined in the outfield by a couple underappreciated performers in Ian Happ and Riley Greene.  Guerrero and Rafael Devers will continue to anchor the corner infield spots.  The spring controversy over what position Devers will play shouldn’t be too much of an issue for the Moonshiners as long as he keeps hitting.  The middle infield was perhaps a bit if a weakness, so they traded for Bo Bichette to unite him with Guerrero in this league as well as Toronto.  Bichette joins Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop.  Tovar is another guy on this team whose production easily exceeds the hype.  Perhaps the top breakout candidate on the roster is third baseman Junior Caminero who had a nice cameo in the big leagues at the end of last season and is now ready to do it for a full campaign for the first time.  Tarik Skubal was a bit of a one man show in the Moonshiners rotation a year ago.  The Cy Young winner was the only standout performer of the group, but was so dominant that the team finished second in pitching points.  He is the only pitcher who was a member of that rotation for a majority of last season who is back this year.  But now he has some help in the way of first round draft pick Garrett Crochet.  The Red Sox new ace gives the Moonshiners the nastiest pair of left handed pitchers in the league.  A potential third nasty left hander on this staff is MacKenzie Gore who got his season off to a grand start on Thursday.  And of course they added Robbie Ray in the draft too because you just can’t have enough nasty lefties.  Kodai Senga was added as well, but last I checked he throws with his right hand.  The Moonshiners bullpen has an interesting mix right now with Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz likely to keep them afloat in saves.  They added Edwin’s brother Alexis Diaz, however he is starting the season on the injured list.  They also return Clay Holmes in a relief slot, while he is now a starting pitcher and Opening Day starter for the Mets, which could provide an avenue for extra strikeouts and wins.  There is a lot to like about this entire roster.  They do not appear to have any of the flaws that plague the teams that have been covered to this point.  However, despite that, they are also quite a ways behind the predicted champions.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (1st)
  • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (1st-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
  • Wins – 1st (4th)
  • Saves – 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

Is anybody actually surprised the Mavericks are the projected champions?  I did them a disservice by never getting around to writing about their incredible title winning squad from a year ago, particularly the historic performance by their offense.  They led the league in all five offensive categories, only falling a stolen base short of achieving the maximum 50 batting points.  The only team to ever accomplish that feat was the 2010 Naturals who actually had to share the championship with the Darkhorses that year.  The 1994 Cougars also had the max batting points, but it was only 30 at the time with just six teams in the league.  By the looks of things, the Mavericks should have a shot at chasing that record again this season.  They are projected to finish atop three batting categories and top three in the others.  As has been the case for quite some time now, the Mavericks have by far the best outfield in the league.  All time great Mike Trout is now quite clearly the fifth best player in this group.  Well ahead of him are perennial MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, last year’s breakout star Jarren Duran and Jazz Chisholm who figures to move out of this crowded outfield back to the dirt next year.  If the first weekend of the season is any indication, we’re going to be talking about Judge in particular an awful lot this year.  The infield is only weak in comparison to the outfield, not other teams’ infields.  Bobby Witt Jr leads the way at shortstop, a MVP candidate in his own right.  Ozzie Albies, Manny Machado and Willy Adames are the other mainstays here.  William Contreras may be the best offensive catcher in the game now.  He’s joined behind the plate by newcomer Austin Wells who could be a fantasy stud as well.  It is truly an embarrassment of riches up and down the Mavericks lineup.  The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the pitching staff looks a decent bit better than last year’s squad which was already quite good.  They used their first two draft picks on starting pitchers with big upside:  Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Spencer Schwellenbach.  They will join reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, Pablo Lopez, Hunter Brown and Freddy Peralta.  Not only does this staff have several potential aces, it is also quite deep now.  The bullpen is the only spot on the roster where you could maybe make a case they aren’t elite.  Mason Miller is though.  In addition to saves, he could put up a strikeout total that more closely resembles that of a starter with twice as many innings thrown.  He is the only certain closer on the team though.  Liam Hendriks and A.J. Puk are potential wild cards to add on here.  In total, the 87 projected standings points are easily the most ever since I’ve started doing this over a decade ago and the 15 point gap over all other teams is also unprecedented.  To say the Mavericks are the team to beat this year is an understatement.

 

That brings us to the conclusion of this consolidated 2025 DTBL season preview series.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to all this season.  Let’s have another great year!

Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

Sunday, March 9th, 2025

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The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he’s been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year’s draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year’s ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of ’24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn’t make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren’t quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6’7″ frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn’t make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with ’24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn’t debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year’s squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet’s profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year’s draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet’s first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he’s been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year’s draft.  Hopefully we’ll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

2024 Season Preview: Part III

Wednesday, March 27th, 2024

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Happy Opening Day Eve!  Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get a full slate of 15 games tomorrow as originally scheduled since games in New York and Philadelphia have already been postponed to Friday.  But 13 games is still enough to get excited about.  It will be year two of the drastic rule changes that had a major impact on the game a year ago, most notably the pitch clock.  Now that we know what kind of impact those changes had, we pretty much know what to expect from a fantasy perspective now too.  Steals were way up a year ago and figure to level off at a similar total again this year.  A slight boost to hitters as a whole, but not at historic levels.  Just a reversal of recent trends of pitching domination.  However, the game is always changing even when the rules do not.  So we’ll see what this season brings.

We have six more DTBL teams to preview, and these projections show very little separating any of them.  There is just a six standings point gap between the team projected to finish in first place and the two teams pinned to tie for fifth place.  That gap is just two points for the three teams covered in this section.  This includes a pair of teams that consistently find themselves near the top of the standings and a team that is looking for a huge turnaround after an extremely disappointing 2023.  These are the teams project to finish in fourth and a tie for fifth places.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
  • Wins – 3rd (3rd)
  • Saves – 3rd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (2nd)

Summary:

While a majority of the league’s teams were involved in a tight race for the ’23 title for much of the season, eventually the Darkhorses were the only ones who kept within striking distance of the eventual champion Demigods.  They were able to keep it tight because they had by far the best pitching staff in the league.  Unfortunately for them, their offense just wasn’t good enough to win it all.  That was quite surprising because the Darkhorses have almost always been known more for their hitting.  Last year was just the second time since 2010 that they had more pitching points than batting points.  These projections show that trend continuing.  There may be teams with deeper rotations, but Spencer Strider and Logan Webb as a top two is pretty hard to beat.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Hunter Greene round out the five they figure to roll with early.  The Darkhorses pitching domination last year was especially impressive since they did it without Jacob deGrom for a majority of the season.  It remains to be seen when deGrom will return to action this year.  They have already proven they can be one of the best staffs in the league without him, so he will be a nice cherry on the top whenever he returns.  The bullpen will be without their top performer from a year ago, Felix Bautista, likely for the full season.  But they do still have four other guys who look like good bets to rack up saves:  Andres Munoz, Kenley Jansen, Jose Leclerc and Robert Suarez.  Since it is probably unrealistic to expect 48 pitching points again the year, the offense is going to need to be better.  One reason to think that is likely is because Bryce Harper should be good to go from Day 1 this year, unlike last year when he was recovering from a UCL tear.  He moves to first base in this league this year, joining a stout infield with Alex Bregman, Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and first round draft pick Royce Lewis.  J.T. Realmuto had a bit of a disappointing ’23 and is a strong bounce back candidate.  Without Harper, the outfield doesn’t have the same star power it once did, but they do have a bunch of guys with solid projections in George Springer, Christian Yelich, Lane Thomas and another bounce back candidate, Starling Marte.  This may not be the juggernaut offense the Darkhorses were once known for, but it sure looks like a better squad than what the results said a year ago.  Combine that with their outstanding pitching staff and you’ve got a team that should contend again this year.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
  • Wins – 5th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 9th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (7th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (3rd-T)

Summary:

For the last decade or so, it has pretty much been a lock that the Mavericks would be near the top of these projections because they had Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw and nobody else did.  Now, Kershaw’s 15 year run with the Mavs is over (well, I suppose they could pick him up later this summer as he nears a return from shoulder surgery) and Trout is no longer a perennial MVP candidate.  In fact, the Mavericks have six other hitters ahead of Trout’s still very respectable 3.7 Batting PAR projection.  They probably do still have the league’s best outfield with Trout, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm all being players every team would want to have.  Soto joining forces with Judge at Yankee Stadium this year should be particularly dangerous for the rest of the league.  The Mavericks middle infield is also in the discussion for best in the league with Ozzie Albies, Bobby Witt Jr and Willy Adames.  Spencer Torkelson finally started to live up to that MLB first overall draft pick hype in the second half of last season.  He will be rejoined by a now healthy Vinnie Pasquantino at first base.  And veteran third baseman Manny Machado remains in the fold as well.  The catching duo of William Contreras and Gabriel Moreno is pretty solid.  The Mavericks pitching staff had a very peculiar season a year ago.  Not too often do you see a team finish dead last in ERA, but near the top of the league in wins and strikeouts.  These projections show them continuing to be the league’s best at inducing whiffs, but leveling off in the other categories.  Basically every pitcher on the roster has elite strikeout stuff.  The rotation will be anchored by Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta.  First round pick Bobby Miller will look to replace his Dodger teammate Kershaw.  Hunter Brown should get his first full season in the Astros rotation.  And then there is Chris Sale looking to recapture his old form.  They even nabbed long time Kings ace Max Scherzer to be a mid-season addition once he returns from back surgery.  There are a lot of interesting options for the Mavericks rotation.  The bullpen probably won’t add a lot of saves with Alexis Diaz the only guy in a certain closer role.  But Mason Miller, Abner Uribe and Bryan Abreu all have such great stuff that they could be plus contributors just from their gaudy strikeout totals.  There is certainly enough upside in the Mavericks pitching staff to support an excellent offense to make them title contenders once again.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (9th)
  • Wins – 2nd (8th)
  • Saves – 4th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (9th)
  • Total Points – 4th (8th)

Summary:

Perhaps the Moonshiners made a deal with the devil to finally win their first DTBL title in 2022, because 2023 was a year from hell.  Their offense took a huge step back and the pitching staff completely cratered.  But boy do these projections show that turning back around this season.  The team that finished with the second fewest pitching points a year ago is pegged to lead the league in that metric this season.  That’s mainly because the Moonshiners drafted two of the three pitchers with the highest projected PAR among those available in the draft with their first two picks:  Tarik Skubal and Zach Eflin.  They immediately become the top two projected starters for the Moonshiners, closely followed by Jesus Luzardo.  There are several solid veteran options available for the final two rotation spots among Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander and Jose Berrios.  Time will tell, but the early indication is that this Moonshiners rotation makeover should be a success.  The bullpen also gets a big time boost with the return of Edwin Diaz, who missed the entire ’23 season.  Clay Holmes and Tanner Scott join him to give the Moonshiners a good shot at being near the top of the league in saves.  It is pretty close to a lock that this team is going to be much improved on the mound.  Whether or not the offense can return to championship form is more of an open question.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Max Muncy will once again lock down the corner infield spots.  However, the middle infield and catching positions are huge question marks.  Ezequiel Tovar is the only player at those positions who grades out as at least an average contributor, though J.P. Crawford would also qualify if he proves last year’s breakout wasn’t a fluke.  The outfield is in much better shape with Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani, who is currently entwined in a gambling scandal.  Riley Greene was having a nice breakout season a year ago before getting hurt.  Daulton Varsho will look to bounce back from a disappointing campaign.  Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Moonshiners rolled the dice on infielder Junior Caminero in the third round of the draft.  He will start the season in the minors.  But he is one of the top prospects in the game, so he could provide a huge boost to this team at some point this year.  With the disappointment of ’23 behind them, this looks like a Moonshiners squad primed to return to contender status.

Dogs Make Room For EDLC

Tuesday, March 12th, 2024

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Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

2023 Season Preview: Part III

Saturday, April 1st, 2023

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With a couple days in the books, we’re already seeing what a difference the new MLB rules are making on the game.  Most obvious is the shortening of the length of games due to the pitch clock.  From a fantasy perspective, the biggest change is probably the increase in stolen bases due to pickoff attempt limits and slightly shorter distances between bases caused by the increased base size.  It is probably still a bit too early to predict *exactly* what this means from a fantasy perspective though.  Will stolen bases simply increase across the board such that no particular type of roster benefits disproportionately?  It will probably cause some funky PAR numbers to pop up though since the threshold for being an above average stolen base contributor had been at a historic low prior to this season.  Anyway, that’s an analysis that can be done at another time when we have more data.

If you were wondering why I only covered a pair of teams in each of the first two preview sections, it is because I kind of had to plan the whole series around today’s trio of teams who are all projected to finish with the exact same number of points.  So it would not have made sense to split them up.  The 56 standings points each are projected to accumulate is pretty much where the similarities end among these teams though.  One is expected to have the best offense in the league, paired with the worst pitching staff.  Another is pegged to have one of the best pitching staffs, but with a near bottom offense.  And then there is the third team that is quite balanced in both parts of the game.  Here are the three teams projected to tie for fourth place.

 

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In - 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (3rd)
  • Wins - 4th (3rd)
  • Saves – 3rd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th-T (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 4th-T (5th)

Summary:

Last year, the Choppers had far and away the best pitching staff in the league.  However, their offense really dragged them down and prevented them from giving the Moonshiners a serious threat down the stretch.  These projections paint a similar picture, although the Choppers did solidify their lineup with some very talented young players who could break out and smash these numbers.  It is a little hard to imagine a team with sluggers like Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber finishing dead last in home runs.  They are the only two on the team slated for more than 25 homers though.  The infield consists of a litany of young players with breakout potential:  Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm, Vaughn Grissom, Triston Casas, Nico Hoerner and CJ Abrams.  First round draft pick Adley Rutschman joins Alejandro Kirk to give the Choppers one of the best catching tandems in the league.  The outfield is where they are a bit thin on impact players, besides defending NL home run champion Schwarber.  Steven Kwan and Lars Nootbaar are the newcomers to this group who will try to add a spark.  The pitching staff remains the strength and is mostly unchanged from last year’s pitching point leading group.  Reigning DTBL Rookie of the Year winner Dylan Cease, Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber all carry projections that would put them in the conversation for the Cy Young award this season.  Even though he’s been an elite pitcher for quite some time now, Bieber seems to fly under the radar in discussions about the top pitchers in baseball.  He actually has the highest PAR projection of this trio.  Blake Snell and Logan Gilbert round out the rotation and they added Nick Lodolo to give themselves a solid depth piece as well.  Snell’s return to elite form last season was quite a boon to the Choppers staff.  Gilbert being their fifth highest projected PAR starter is pretty envious.  The bullpen is very strong too.  With Edwin Diaz out for the season, Emmanual Clase is pretty much in a class by himself among relievers who can dominate not only in saves, but ERA, WHIP and strikeouts as well.  Jordan Romano is about as steady as they come too.  Trevor May has a shot at getting saves with the A’s.  Brusdar Graterol has the stuff to enter the closer conversation for the Dodgers at some point.  The last couple seasons, the Choppers have put themselves into title contention.  This year, they hope to finally end their near-quarter century title drought.

 

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (1st)
  • Stolen Bases - 9th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
  • Wins – 6th (6th)
  • Saves – 5th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th-T (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (6th-T)
  • Total Points – 4th-T (2nd)

Summary:

On paper, the Kings look like one of the most balanced teams in the league.  They are one of only two to have batting and pitching point projections in the top half of the league.  They don’t have a glaring weakness.  The problem is, they also don’t appear to be particularly strong in any area.  The batting projections are actually a bit troubling for a squad that led the league in batting points a season ago.  Also troubling is the fact that these numbers were compiled before they lost Rhys Hoskins for the season with a torn ACL.  The good news is they do have capable corner infielders to attempt to fill that void with Matt Olson, Austin Riley and newcomer first round pick Gunnar Henderson.  Marcus Semien continues to be one of the most productive middle infielders in the game.  Carlos Correa had a wild offseason of free agent drama, but in the end he’s back in Minnesota and anchoring the shortstop position for the Kings as well.  Will Smith and Sean Murphy return to provide stability and solid production behind the dish for the Kings.  The outfield has a bunch of new additions in Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Vargas and Michael Conforto, but the main guys out there are the returning trio of Mookie Betts, Randy Arozarena and Tyler O’Neill.  Arozarena is someone who could be capable of carrying an offense if he is allowed to run wild this season.  Same goes for Betts, although his stolen base production has been tailing off in recent years.  The Kings almost completely rebuilt their pitching staff.  Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler are the only healthy holdovers from last season’s rotation.  They remain the Kings co-aces.  They’ll need some help from a couple of the newcomers though.  The new additions include George Kirby, Nestor Cortes and Drew Rasmussen, none of whom were household names before last year.  The Kings bullpen could be decent, but it is hard to feel confident about that at the moment.  Camilo Doval appears to be the only sure thing closer in the group.  Paul Sewald and Pete Fairbanks could be in line for plenty of saves too though.  The Kings are strong enough in all areas to remain a title contender.  It’s just not clear if they have enough elite level talent to push them over the top.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (1st)
  • Home Runs - 1st (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (4th)
  • Wins – 3rd (10th)
  • Saves – 10th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (5th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
  • Total Points – 4th-T (9th)

Summary:

For the first time in three years, the Mavericks are not the pre-season predicted champion.  Perhaps that is just as well as they have fallen short of expectations every season since winning the league in 2017.  Last year was an especially disappointing season as they had the worst finish in franchise history, falling all the way to ninth place.  Unless everything that can go wrong does again, we probably won’t see a repeat of that.  This is an absolutely loaded roster on the hitting side, which creates a pretty high floor, even though the pitching staff is full of question marks.  Pretty much the lone bright spot for the Mavericks last season was Aaron Judge who won the league MVP and broke the AL home run record with 62 bombs.  He’s back along with the rest of the league’s best outfield.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Eloy Jimenez and Nick Castellanos are all looking to bounce back from disappointing and/or injury plagued seasons.  Second overall draft pick Bobby Witt Jr gives the Mavericks infield a significant boost and immediately becomes their top stolen base threat.  Manny Machado continues to be the dependable anchor of the infield.  First baseman Nate Lowe had a nice breakout campaign in ’22.  He’s joined at first base by second round pick Vinnie Pasquantino.  In addition to the outfielders mentioned above, another guy looking to stay healthy and go back to being one of the premier players at his position is second baseman Ozzie Albies.  As long as they aren’t ravaged by injuries like they were a year ago, expect the Mavericks to have the best offense in the league.  The pitching staff is another matter though.  The Dodgers pair of Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw are the only safe bets to provide great numbers from the rotation.  Pablo Lopez is a pretty solid #3 option though.  The rest of the starters fall into at least one of these two categories: returning from injury or looking to regain lost form.  This group includes Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, Freddy Peralta, Tony Gonsolin and Michael Kopech.  So the good news is they have plenty of options.  It remains to be seen which of these guys will step up in 2023.  The bullpen is a complete wild card.  The Mavericks finished the draft with just one healthy reliever in Alexis Diaz.  They hope to add Liam Hendriks as a reliable closer at some point as he is currently battling back from cancer.  Hunter Brown is an intriguing bullpen piece as a decent bet to hold down a rotation spot for the Astros for parts of the season.  The Mavericks don’t have their typical rosy outlook heading into this season, but they are close to a lock to put last season behind them and be a competitive team this year.

Back To Basics

Tuesday, March 28th, 2023

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After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I’ve seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

Strider’s Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his ’22 minor and major league season.

Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn’t exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn’t have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn’t map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I’m actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!

Judgement Day Finally Arrives

Tuesday, December 13th, 2022

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Well, my lack of ambition when it comes to writing has struck again. We are so far removed from awards season that most of the marquee free agents have already found homes before I ever got around to finishing the DTBL awards announcements. With apologies to Aaron Judge, who had truly one of the best seasons in DTBL history and deserves a comprehensive write-up, I’m going to mail this one in to get it over with. I’m sure to the surprise of absolutely no one, Mavericks outfielder Aaron Judge is the unanimous selection for the 2022 DTBL Most Valuable Player award.

As you all know, Judge’s 62 home run season broke Roger Maris’ American League home run record. In this league, that ranks seventh all time behind Barry Bonds’ MLB record 73 in 2001, a pair of Mark McGwire seasons, and three for Sammy Sosa. Besides the obvious PED suspicions surrounding those three specific players, Judge’s season also stands out based on the leaguewide environment in which he was competing. All six of those single season home run figures ahead of Judge’s took place from 1998 through 2001, which we now know was the peak of the steroid era. This season, Judge hit 16 more home runs than any other player while also hitting .311, 131 RBIs, 133 runs scored and even 16 stolen bases. His 12.2 Batting PAR was more than double the next highest player this year and is the highest in any season I’ve calculated (2005-present). While there have been some other players who have had seasons with comparable or better raw batting stats, factoring in the current hitting environment in baseball makes this Judge season one of, if not the, best in league history.

It would have been fishy if Judge had not won this award unanimously. Sure enough, he received all nine first place votes. Trea Turner came in second, his second straight top four finish. Paul Goldschmidt came in third, followed by Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonso rounding out the top five.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Sorry again for not giving Judge the full due he deserved. We’ll see if I can get back in a writing flow next year.

2022 Season Preview: Part IV

Monday, April 11th, 2022

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We’ve reached the final edition of the 2022 DTBL season preview.  As I’ve been stating every step of the way, this year’s projections show a very tight race from top to bottom.  No team is loaded enough to feel confident about winning the league.  But conversely, every team should like their chances of being a contender.  These top two teams are separated by just a single point and the team slated to finish third (Kings) is just one point behind second.  The full projected standings can be found at the bottom of this post.

As it turns out, the top two projected teams are the same as last year, in the same order.  Obviously, that didn’t prove to mean much a year ago as neither team wound up being a serious title contender, for a variety of reasons.  However, it is a sign that these are two very talented rosters again this year.  One is expected to have a very good pitching staff with a mediocre offense while the other is pegged as the projected batting point leader, but near the bottom of the barrel in pitching.  Here are the pair of teams at the top of the 2022 DTBL projected standings.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
  • Runs Batted In - 3rd (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases - 9th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (3rd)
  • Wins - 7th (8th-T)
  • Saves – 4th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs - 8th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (6th)
  • Total Points - 2nd (5th)

Summary:

Last year, the Darkhorses fell well short in their attempt to defend their 2020 championship.  They were unable to meet expectations with the bats or on the mound, in large part due to several of their best players missing significant time with injuries.  Offensively, not too much has changed with the roster construction as their first five draft picks were all used on pitchers.  There wasn’t much reason to shake things up in the infield.  Joey Votto, Brandon Lowe, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Chapman and Tommy Edman give them above average players at every spot.  J.T. Realmuto might be the best catcher in the league.  With better health and a bounceback from Christian Yelich, the outfield could be excellent as well.  Bryce Harper was easily their best hitter a year ago and probably will be this year too.  A full healthy season from George Springer would be a welcome change from 2021.  The Darkhorses aren’t going to steal as many bases as last season, but they should improve in most of the other offensive categories.  The pitching staff went through a major makeover, but one holdover is the most important piece.  Unfortunately though, Jacob deGrom is expected to miss the first two months of the season with an arm injury.  So he’s not a good bet to reach the 8.8 PAR projection that was from before his prognosis was fully known.  Jose Berrios will be asked to pick up the slack, along with three newcomers:  Logan Webb, Sonny Gray and Adam Wainwright.  The Darkhorses probably can’t afford any of those guys to not pan out.  The save projection of fourth makes sense, but it won’t come the way these projections read as Kenley Jansen was yet to sign with the Braves when these numbers were compiled.  Conversely, Blake Treinein looked likely to be the Dodgers closer when the Darkhorses drafted him, but that changed with the Dodgers trade for Craig Kimbrel.  Taylor Rogers was also traded last week, but possibly to a better situation in San Diego.  Meanwhile, the one reliever whose outlook hasn’t changed at all is Liam Hendriks who remains one of the best closers in the game.  All in all, it is a strong bullpen that should boost the pitching staff as a whole.  The Darkhorses should be a better team across the board in 2022.  Winning their second title in three years is a very reasonable expectation.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs - 1st (5th)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (5th)
  • Runs Scored - 2nd (7th-T)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (2nd)
  • Wins - 3rd (1st-T)
  • Saves – 10th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Points - 1st (3rd)

Summary:

Like the Darkhorses, the Mavericks were unable to meet the lofty pre-season expectations a year ago, in large part due to significant injuries to key players.  None more crippling than losing Mike Trout for a majority of the season.  With Trout, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, the Mavericks have an outfield that simply can’t be matched.  All three of those guys have PAR projections among the best in the league.  So the outfield is already elite, and that’s before even mentioning Eloy Jimenez, who was another player that missed a majority of the season last year, and Nick Castellanos.  The infield may not be quite as good, because how could it be?  That said, Ozzie Albies and Manny Machado are both among the best players in the league at their respective positions.  First round draft pick Jazz Chisholm should provide a boost as well.  They bought low on Yoan Moncada, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Sano, three infielders who have had elite fantasy seasons in the not too distant past.  Yasmani Grandal and Tyler Stephenson form a nice caching duo.  Where things get a little dicey is with the pitching staff, which is a little strange considering how reliable that crew has been for years.  The rotation is led by a pair of Dodger lefties, Clayton Kershaw and Juio Urias.  Jack Flaherty’s shoulder injury is a cause for concern.  Pablo Lopez and Tyler Mahle were unsung heroes a year ago and may need to be again.  Michael Kopech is now a full time starter from the beginning of the season for the first time in his big league career.  There is a lot of intrigue in this group, but also a lot of question marks.  The bullpen is not a strength as they do not currently have any pitchers who are safe bets to rack up a lot of saves.  Andrew Kittredge and Aaron Ashby could be useful contributors depending on how they are utilized by their MLB teams.  It is unlikely the Mavericks will finish far from the bottom in saves.  While it is hard to know what to expect from this pitching staff, it should be good enough to keep them in the mix.  It would be a major surprise if the offense isn’t among the league’s best.  Since winning the league in 2017, the Mavericks have finished between third and sixth each season.  That would seem to be the floor again this year, with the ceiling most definitely being another league title.

 

And with that, we have concluded the preview of the 2022 DTBL season.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to everyone on what should be one of the most competitive seasons we’ve ever seen.  May the best team win!