DTBL News

Category: Choppers

  • Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

    Embed from Getty Images The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year's group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

    For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

    Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in '18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

    Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

    With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year's most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won't see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn't play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won't get their money's worth until next year and beyond.

    The Mavericks aren't used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

    The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

    Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

    For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

    The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so '18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

    Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he's unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won't see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

    Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we'll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let's keep up the good work!

  • Four DTBL Legends Enshrined

    Embed from Getty Images One of the cool things about the longevity of this league is that now most of the newly inducted members in the Baseball Hall of Fame are players who accumulated most of their Hall of Fame credentials as members of DTBL teams.  This has been the case for a while, but some year's classes carry more significance to this league than others.  The 2018 class featured four of the best players in our league's history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome.  Also inducted were Alan Trammell and Jack Morris.  Trammell played until 1996, but was never on a DTBL major league roster.  Morris had a brief, unimpressive stint with the Gators in the league's inaugural season.  But here is a synopsis of the DTBL careers of the big four who were inducted in Cooperstown the last week of July.

    Vladimir Guerrero was originally drafted by the expansion Angels in 1998 and was a member of that team for their only season of existence.  He then returned to the draft pool the following year and somehow fell all the way to the Choppers with the 8th pick of the 1999 draft.  Needless to say, that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He spent the remaining 13 seasons of his DTBL career with the Choppers, winning a championship in his first season with them (1999).  Guerrero ranks sixth in DTBL history with a .319 average and is in the top 10 in RBI as well (1,415).  His name is littered all over the Choppers franchise leaderboard:  second in average (.319), RBI (1,306) and runs (1,130), third in home runs (390) and sixth in stolen bases (165).  Not everyone recalls his base stealing prowess.  There are 16 DTBL players with 400 home runs (Adrian Beltre just recently joined this group).  Of those 16 guys, only Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield have more than Guerrero's 176 career steals.  Vlad was as consistent of a hitter as the league has ever seen.  In his first nine seasons, he hit over .300 with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI in all but one year (2003).  In seasons in which he qualified for the batting title (400 at bats) his *worst* batting average was .300 in 2010.

    In the history of baseball, only one pitcher has recorded more saves than Trevor Hoffman (Mariano Rivera).  The same is true of DTBL history.  His 560 saves is 136 more than any pitcher not named Rivera, so he figures to hold onto the second spot for quite some time to come.  Unlike the other three players covered here, Hoffman doesn't have an obvious choice of team cap to wear on his fictional DTBL Hall of Fame plaque.  He spent time with six different franchises.  His longest tenures were five seasons with two different teams:  Panthers (1997-2001) and Moonshiners (2004-2008).  He started his career with the Kings (1995-1997), spent two stints with the Darkhorses (2002-2003, 2009) and split his final season (2010) with the Mavericks and Naturals.  He is the Moonshiners franchise leader in saves (202) and ranks third on the Panthers list (191).  Hoffman recorded at least 30 saves every year from 1995 through 2008, except for an injury marred 2003.  In addition to the gaudy save totals, he also struck out 948 batters, which ranks fourth among pitchers who spent their entire careers in the bullpen.  His 2.78 career ERA ranks fourth among all pitchers.  He was a member of two DTBL championship winning teams, near the end of his career:  the 2009 Darkhorses and 2010 Naturals.

    Chipper Jones was a slugging third baseman in an era when that wasn't really a thing.  It is basically him and Adrian Beltre at the top of all of the DTBL third baseman hitting rankings.  Most of his best seasons were spent as a member of the Jackalope.  He started his career with the Tidal Wave and was with them for both of their years of existence.  Then he joined another expansion team, the Jackalope, as their first pick in 1998.  He was released by the Jackalope after a decent 2006 season and added a couple more solid years with the Darkhorses in 2007 through 2009.  His final three seasons saw him bounce from the Cougars to the Mavericks and then back to the Darkhorses.  It was the Jackalope years that really made him a Hall of Fame player though.  With them, he hit .310 with 276 home runs, 874 RBI and 868 runs, all four totals rank in the top four of Jackalope history.  His career numbers also put him in elite company:  .308, 411 HR, 1,422 RBI, 1,414 runs.  The only other members of the .300/400/1,400/1,400 club are Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols.  While Jones' best seasons were with the Jackalope, his championship winning years came with the Darkhorses.  He was a member of the Darkhorses for the first three of their four consecutive titles (2007-2009).  He was a teammate of Hoffman's on that 2009 squad.

    Finally, we have Jim Thome, one of the most feared sluggers of the past quarter century.  Thome ranks fourth on the DTBL career list in home runs (546) and fifth in runs batted in (1,492).  No current member of the Baseball Hall of Fame has accumulated more DTBL home runs or RBI than Thome.  He is one of the few sluggers at the top of those lists without any PED taint.  He spent his entire DTBL career with just two teams.  Thome was originally a member of the Kings, but is best remembered as a member of the Choppers, who acquired him in the second round of the 1999 draft.  Yes, the Choppers selected Hall of Famers in the first two rounds of that '99 draft.  He spent 11 seasons with the Choppers (1999-2009), which was surrounded by a pair of stints with the Kings (1995-1998, 2010).  With the Choppers, he amassed 401 home runs, bested only by Sammy Sosa.  His 1,094 RBI and 976 runs both rank fourth in Choppers history.  Thome hit at least 40 home runs in six different seasons.  Probably the best season of his career came in 2002 when he slugged a career high 52 homers with a .304 average.  From 1999 through 2003, he hit at least 30 home runs with 100+ RBI and runs each year.  His lone DTBL championship came in his first season with the Choppers, 1999, when he was a teammate of Guerrero's.  Coincidentally, all four of these new Hall-of-Famers were members of either the 1999 Choppers or 2009 Darkhorses.

    Congratulations to four of the greatest players in DTBL history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome!

    Now here are the weekly and monthly award winners for July 2018.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/2 - 7/8) - Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods Week 16 (7/9 - 7/15) - Jose Ramirez, Komodos Week 17 (7/16 - 7/22) - Matt Carpenter, Choppers Week 18 (7/23 - 7/29) - Jonathan Schoop, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/2 - 7/8) - Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners Week 16 (7/9 - 7/15) - Aaron Nola, Demigods Week 17 (7/16 - 7/22) - Zack Greinke, Moonshiners Week 18 (7/23 - 7/29) - Rick Porcello, Cougars

    Compiling the information above exposed a bit of a flaw in my code that captures the Batter and Pitcher of the Week winners each week.  In two instances, the above players were not the ones I captured.  Instead, I had players who weren't on an active DTBL roster at the time.  This has happened before, but I don't recall seeing two instances of it in the same month.  I should probably take some time to fix this.  Anyway, because I don't store weekly PAR numbers beyond the top batter and pitcher, I had to take a guess at who should have won these awards.  So it is quite possible that Yulieski Gurriel and Rick Porcello were not the rightful winners in their respective weeks.  What is certain is the accuracy of the monthly PAR totals for July.  Here are the players of the month.

    Batter of the Month:

    Jose Ramirez, Komodos .322 AVG, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R, 11 SB, 3.55 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Zack Greinke, Moonshiners 1.60 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 35 K, 2.61 PAR

    When I see eye-popping numbers in all five categories, I often will run a Baseball Reference Play Index search to see if any other players in DTBL history have matched or exceeded all of the monthly numbers compiled by the batter or pitcher of the month.  In this case, Jose Ramirez's July, I found no results.  So, prior to July, no DTBL player had ever hit .322+ with 8+ home runs, 25+ RBI, 21+ runs and 11+ stolen bases in a single month.  These numbers were especially impressive coming in July with the All-Star break taking away a couple additional games played.  Ramirez is currently leading the DTBL in Batting PAR and home runs.  He is second in stolen bases and not far behind the leaders in RBI and runs either.  The Komodos third baseman has a strong case for MVP if he continues to be a five category force.  Ramirez won this award in a landslide, but finishing second was his Indians teammate Francisco Lindor.

    Zack Grienke is quietly compiling another great season to add to his impressive career resume.  When discussing the top pitchers of the game today, Greinke is rarely mentioned.  But he is posting a sub 3.00 ERA with a dozen wins and more than a strikeout per inning.  In July, Greinke tied for the league lead with four wins while compiling a 1.60 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  With the recently added 2005 PAR numbers, Greinke's entire career PAR has been calculated.  Since 2005, only three other pitchers (Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) have exceeded his 79.0 PAR.  Greinke just barely edged out Chris Sale for this monthly honor.

  • Mid-Season Mash-up

    Embed from Getty Images We've moved into the second half of the baseball season.  There is a lot going on right now, so I'm going to breeze through several topics in this post.  Thanks to everyone for voting for this year's All-Stars.  The managers for this year's All-Star Game, Marc and Nick, have been tasked with breaking a few ties and selecting the final players for their respective rosters.  Soon after they do that, I will announce the 2018 DTBL All-Star rosters.  This year will mark the 25th annual DTBL All-Star Game.  As you may recall, there was no All-Star Game in the first DTBL season.  But some representation of the Mid-Summer Classic has been played every year since.

    Speaking of 25th Anniversaries, we are just about a month away from the DTBL 25th Anniversary party in Chicago.  In case you didn't pay attention to any of the email traffic from previous months, many of us will be meeting up for the Indians @ White Sox game on Saturday, August 11.  I've already obtained tickets for everyone who previously said they would be able to make it.  But even if that doesn't include you, you are more than welcome to join us!  I bought a couple extra tickets and can easily obtain more, if necessary.  We are going to have a small tailgate outside the stadium, but will be heading into the park relatively early to make sure we get the Jim Thome bobbleheads that they are giving away that evening.  Please contact me if you would like more information.  Looking forward to it!

    Somewhere around that 25th Anniversary gathering, probably soon after, I am going to be announcing an all-time DTBL team.  It will be my version of the 25 greatest players in league history.  Since I prefer to make mostly objective selections, I'm working on a statistical formula to determine this roster.  It will be somewhat based on PAR, but not exclusively.  However, to that end, I'm hoping to get as many seasons as possible of PAR numbers completed in the next month.  Just this past week, I added numbers for 2006.  A few takeaways from these numbers.  First, Johan Santana was very much deserving of the Cy Young award he won unanimously that season.  The Mavericks' lefty accumulated a 14.27 PAR, which was nearly five points higher than the next closest pitcher.  It marks as the highest pre-2010 single season Pitching PAR I've calculated so far.  Among hitters, there was far less separation at the top of the 2006 PAR leaderboard.  Albert Pujols was first at 9.16, but Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Howard were all within a point.  Howard edged out Pujols in the MVP vote that year, perhaps because of his gaudy 58 home runs, which had been the league's single season record among non-PED suspected players until Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 homers last year.  Reyes' 19 home runs in '06 is the most for any DTBL player with at least 60 steals as well.

    I am going to try go get PAR numbers completed back to 2003 in the next month.  The reason why 2003 will be my stopping point is because I don't have complete transaction records readily accessible prior to that, which are necessary for me to calculate the number of weeks each player was on a major league roster.  This is the big pain point in completing these PAR calculations.

    On to the weekly and monthly award winners for June 2018.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/4 - 6/10) - Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope Week 12 (6/11 - 6/17) - Evan Gattis, Kings Week 13 (6/18 - 6/24) - Nolan Arenado, Naturals Week 14 (6/25 - 7/1) - Alex Bregman, Darkhorses

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/4 - 6/10) - Corey Kluber, Demigods Week 12 (6/11 - 6/17) - Luis Severino, Jackalope Week 13 (6/18 - 6/24) - Trevor Bauer, Choppers Week 14 (6/25 - 7/1) - Blake Snell, Cougars

    Semi-spoiler alert:  you are going to see almost all of the names above when the DTBL All-Star rosters are announced this week.  These guys not only had great weeks at some point in June, but are putting up All-Star caliber numbers through the first half of the season.  We had a little more team diversity for these honors in June as only the Jackalope had multiple players earn weekly honors.

    Batter of the Month:

    Alex Bregman, Darkhorses .306 AVG, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 1 SB, 3.00 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Chris Sale, Choppers 1.76 ERA, 0.756 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 60 K, 3.43 PAR

    Half way through his second DTBL season, Bregman has already almost matched his rookie season numbers.  In fact, he has already set a career high in home runs with 17.  11 of those came in his scorching month of June.  He tied for the league lead in both home runs and RBI in June.  The Darkhorses third baseman appears primed to receive his first DTBL All-Star invitation.  Bregman narrowly won this award over Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt who had very similar numbers across the board.  Komodos outfielders Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario were in the conversation as well.

    Sale will almost certainly receive his seventh straight All-Star nod this week.  If so, he will have been a DTBL All-Star in every season since becoming a full time starting pitcher for the White Sox in 2012.  He was at the peak of his powers in June, striking out 60 batters in just 41 innings.  He is one of four pitchers who have already accumulated over 8 PAR this season, barely beyond the half-way point in the season.  Sale was a comfortable winner of this award, but amazingly, the top three contenders were all Choppers, the other two being Trevor Bauer and Jon Lester.  Jackalope Luis Severino wasn't too far back either.

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part I

    Embed from Getty Images Welcome to the 2018 DTBL season!  This will be our 26th season, but also a year-long celebration of our 25th Anniversary.  In case you forgot what happened in 2017 after a long winter, here's a quick summary:  the Mavericks dominated.  They led the league most of the season and won the championship by 11 1/2 points over the Cougars and Naturals.  After the Mavericks, very little separated the rest of the league.  The Cougars and Naturals had very good years, but it wouldn't have taken much more for any of the other teams to have been right up there with them in the standings.  So, how do things look heading into 2018?  I'm glad you asked.

    As has become an annual tradition, I am going to preview the upcoming season by using standings/stats projections to tell most of the story.  For the second straight year, I will be using FanGraph's Depth Charts projected stats of players to generate projections for each DTBL team.  These are a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections, with playing time adjustments done by the FanGraphs staff.  The reason I made the switch to Depth Charts last year is because I think it gives a more accurate guess at playing time so that players who are expected to play less than an every day role in the big leagues this year don't disproportionately affect these prognostications.

    Additionally, I have made one other change for this year.  In the past, I've scaled all the pitching stats so that the number of projected innings are the same for each team, no matter how many pitchers are on the roster.  For hitters, I have attempted to do the same, but rather than scaling to a certain at bat or plate appearance target, I would scale based on the number of hitters on the roster.  This year, I decided it would make more sense to do the same thing for hitters as pitchers.  So now the team totals in hitting categories will be scaled such that each team is projected to accumulate 8285 plate appearances.  I came up with this number by looking at the team totals in at bats the past five seasons and then applying the PA/AB ratio that has existed in MLB over that same time period, since I don't keep plate appearance data for DTBL teams.  I figured this would be more accurate than simply using at bats since some teams may be high on guys who walk a lot while others may have a bunch of free swingers.  So team plate appearances are more likely to be similar across the league than at bats.  Anyway, the main reason for this change is so that teams who have players projected to spend far less than full seasons on major league rosters don't kill the team's projections across the board.  For instance, Victor Robles is only projected for 90 plate appearances this season.  In the past, including his modest numbers in the Naturals projections would have really hurt the "per player" totals.  With this change, his numbers simply won't make up as significant of a percentage of the Naturals totals, which is logical since he probably won't be on their active roster much of the season.  So the end result, I think, is that these projections will do a better job of predicting which players will actually be on major league rosters for DTBL teams.  Having said that, I'm still not making any personal predictions about how much time each player will spend on the active roster.  Stats for all 28 players on the post-draft rosters are included in these projections.

    Anyway, let's get started.  As usual, I'm going to break this into four parts.  Normally, each of these posts previews two or three teams.  But you get a special treat to kick things off this year:  four teams!  The reason?  Three teams are projected to tie for 7th place.  So here are the four teams that the numbers say will be near the bottom of the standings.  Two of these four were among the top four finishers a year ago, so perhaps we could see some major shuffling in the standings, which of course winds up happening every year anyway.

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 8th (6th)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (5th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (2nd)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (5th)

    • Earned Run Average - 9th (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (7th)

    • Wins - 9th (8th)

    • Saves - 5th (3rd)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 9th (4th-T)

    • Total Points - 10th (2nd-T)

    Summary:

    We kick off the team previews with what is probably the most surprising result my spreadsheet spit out.  Last year, the Cougars tied for second place, which was their best finish in over 20 years.  These projections don't like their chances of duplicating that result.  One possible explanation for this dreary outlook is that the Cougars current roster consists of 13 pitchers, which is more than any other team and two more than most.  This means that a good chunk of their pitching totals are made up of numbers from pitchers who won't actually contribute this season and waters down the impact of the numbers from their best pitchers.  However, on that note, their best pitcher is clearly Madison Bumgarner who will spend the first month of the season on the DL with a broken finger.  Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon and Luke Weaver will look to pick up the slack.  The Cougars have a bunch of interesting young pitchers who they will be able to shuffle in and out of the rotation until they find the best combination.  I would heavily bet the over on the Cougars saves projection, which was also impacted by the sheer quantity of relief pitchers on the current roster.  They should be able to roll out four closers most of the season, so a finish near the top in saves seems likely.  The offensive projections are a little more worrisome for the Cougars.  Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant are elite players, but they are going to need a couple other guys to reach All-Star caliber levels this season.  Some candidates for that include first round pick Tommy Pham and last year's first overall pick, shortstop Trevor Story.  Story bouncing back from a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign might be the key to the Cougars season.  Somebody has to come in last in these prognostications.  It would be pretty surprising if the Cougars fell all the way to the bottom of the league in 2018 though.

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (9th)

    • Home Runs - 10th (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 10th (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 10th (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 1st (7th)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (4th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (3rd)

    • Wins - 4th (6th)

    • Saves - 2nd (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 4th (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 10th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (3rd)

    • Total Points - 7th-T (7th)

    Summary:

    After four straight seasons in the top half of the standings, the Choppers took a step backwards in 2017 and fell to seventh place.  Their strong pitching staff couldn't overcome an offense that finished dead last in batting points.  According to these projections, they could be in for a repeat of that again this season.  The Choppers attempted to improve their offense by drafting Whit Merrifield and Delino DeShields Jr and trading for Andrew McCutchen.  Clearly, this will be a speedier team in '18.  With regular playing time, DeShields could contend for the league lead in stolen bases.  But questions remain on where the power will come from.  Anthony Rizzo and Byron Buxton appear to be the best offensive players on the squad.  After those two though, the player with the next highest projected batting PAR is actually 10th round pick Randal Grichuk.  The pitching numbers are much more promising.  I'm not sure they will be able to lead the league in strikeouts again this year, but Chris Sale, Danny Duffy and Jon Lester form an impressive trio of left-handed starters.  Joining them this year will be Trevor Bauer, who had a sneaky impressive strikeout total a year ago.  The bullpen remains one of the best in the league, led by Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles.  It would be surprising if the Choppers don't have one of the better pitching staffs in the league this year.  But in order for them to return to the top half of the standings, they will need to be a better hitting team.

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (2nd)

    • Home Runs - 7th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (2nd)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (8th)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)

    • Wins - 6th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 7th (9th)

    • Strike Outs - 10th (8th)

    • Total Batting Points - 7th (3rd-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (6th)

    • Total Points - 7th-T (4th)

    Summary:

    Much like the Cougars, the Demigods are projected to take a tumble in the standings after finishing in fourth place a year ago.  Also like the Cougars, a possible explanation for the fall could be tied to their current roster construction.  In the Demigods case, four of the five extra players are hitters.  They continue to have a very deep roster of solid hitters.  Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez were two of the best players in the league last year and should be again this season.  Add in Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman and you have the makings of a team that doesn't look like the seventh best offense in the league, but that is what the projections are saying.  Perhaps some of their veterans could be declining a bit, like Buster Posey and Evan Longoria.  And it remains to be seen if Ryan Zimmerman can build on his '17 resurgence.  Overall though, this looks like a good hitting team.  Outside of Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, the pitching staff was a little disappointing last year though.  Aaron Nola and newcomer Alex Wood could blossom into stars this season.  The Demigods will be looking for bounce-back seasons from Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels.  The bullpen is likely to be a weakness.  While they could have as many as three closers, not one of them is in a particularly safe situation.  Fernando Rodney did manage to save 39 games a year ago though.  While the Demigods are projected to finish seventh in the league in both batting and pitching points, I believe their offense is much stronger than the pitching staff right now.  Will Kluber be able to carry them into contention again this year?

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank - Gators)

    • Batting Average - 7th (6th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (5th)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 10th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (8th)

    • Wins - 3rd (5th)

    • Saves - 9th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 9th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (6th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (10th)

    • Total Points - 7th-T (10th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos inaugural DTBL seasons should be pretty interesting.  They inherited a Gators roster that finished in last place a year ago, but had a relatively decent offense.  Early signs are that the Komodos could be more than just decent with the bats.  The pitching staff, however, is still a work in progress.  Adding Cody Bellinger to an already potent lineup has helped make the Komodos the second best offensive team in the entire league, according to these projections.  Jose Ramirez looks to build on his breakout '17 campaign.  Other young players who could be poised to do big things in '18 include Starling Marte, Joey Gallo and Corey Seager.  Also, don't forget about Wil Myers, Yoenis Cespedes, Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz.  The Komodos received some bad news today with catcher Salvador Perez suffering an off-field knee injury that will shelve him until mid-May or so.  But otherwise, things are looking up for the Komodos hitters.  The pitching staff will have trouble escaping the cellar, however.  Jose Quintana is definitely the ace of the staff.  Rich Hill and Gio Gonzalez are solid veterans.  As is Ervin Santana, but he will likely miss the first month with a hand injury.  One young pitcher to keep an eye on is Dylan Bundy.  The bullpen has some interesting guys, most notably recent acquisition Aroldis Chapman, but may struggle to rack up saves.  Greg Holland remains an unsigned free agent.  Getting him onto a roster as a closer would certainly help.  It will be fun to see if the Komodos can make some noise in their first season.

  • Komodos Nab Bellinger

    Embed from Getty Images
    The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

    In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

    In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

    With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

    The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

    Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

    While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

    The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

    Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

    For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

    Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

    The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

    The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

    The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

    With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

     

     

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part IV


    Everybody wants to be first… except when it comes to first place in the DTBL season preview series.  In all the years I’ve been doing these projections, no team that has been tabbed as the preseason favorite has ever actually gone on to win the league championship.  On top of that, no team has repeated as DTBL champions since the Darkhorses won a share of their fourth consecutive title back in 2010.  So that’s two trends the Kings will need to buck this season.  While they have received top billing in these projections, it is by the thinnest of margins over the Choppers and not far ahead of the Mavericks and other as well.  Since we are now in day three of the 2017 MLB season, it is time to start focusing on the games at hand.  So here are the final two team previews, for the teams expected to finish at the top of the standings.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 4th (4th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (2nd-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins – 4th (1st)
    • Saves – 1st (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Points – 2nd (3rd)

    Summary:

    Quietly, the Choppers have finished in the top four in the league for four straight seasons.  However, last season was the first time that they were truly in a pennant race in 15 years.  Finishing 2 1/2 points out was their closest margin of defeat since winning their last title in 1999.  This year, they would like to take the final step and win the whole thing.  It would be no surprise if they did just that.  If it weren’t for the Mavericks, we’d be gushing with superlatives for the Choppers pitching staff.  They finished just 1/2 point behind the Mavs in pitching points last season and are only projected to be two points behind them this year.  Chris Sale and Jon Lester will be joined by Danny Duffy to create a dynamic trio of southpaws at the top of the rotation.  Righties Danny Salazar and Masahiro Tanaka aren’t too shabby either.  They are a pretty good bet to lead the league in saves with four very good closers who all have decent job security at the moment (Craig Kimbrel, Ken Giles, A.J. Ramos and Kelvin Herrera).  The Choppers will probably need to beat these batting projections to win the title, however.  It is worth noting though that they are hurt a bit in these numbers by carrying three catchers on their roster, one of whom won’t play until later this summer (Wilson Ramos).  In the draft, they added several proven veterans to their existing cast with the likes of Dustin Pedroia (a re-acquisition), Carlos Gomez and Troy Tulowitzki.  The core of the offense remains Anthony Rizzo, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and the defending home run champion, Mark Trumbo.  This is a team loaded with proven hitters.  Can they deliver one more time?  If so, the Choppers have an excellent shot at ending their 18 year championship drought.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (2nd)
    • Wins – 8th (4th-T)
    • Saves – 3rd (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (3rd)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    The Kings have proven to be a hard team to project in recent years, in part because the previous season never seems to have any bearing on what will happen next.  The Kings past four finishes:  1st, 6th, 10th, 1st.  So predicting them to finish in the same spot two consecutive years seems like a losing bet.  Yet here we are.  Which Kings offense will we see in 2017?  The one that dominated the league through the All-Star break a year ago, or the one that completely fell apart down the stretch and nearly cost them the title?  The projections lean more towards the former.  They made some key moves to fill the one obvious weakness on offense:  corner infield.  They traded Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for Kyle Seager and used draft picks on Ryon Healy and Victor Martinez.  Reigning MVP Mookie Betts is the main man in a very good outfield that should be able to overcome the loss of Polanco with the return to health by A.J. Pollock.  First round pick David Dahl will join his two Rockies teammates, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez, in the Kings outfield as well, once all are healthy.  Robinson Cano, Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz make up a pretty strong middle infield.  A Kings repeat will likely come down to the pitching staff.  Last year, it was basically a two man show with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  They hope for great years from that duo again, but would like to get more from Marcus Stroman and Jeff Samardzija as well.  The key man in the rotation may be second round pick Lance McCullers, who has put up solid numbers early in his career, but has not been able to stay healthy.  The bullpen features four closers, but only the currently suspended Jeurys Familia would be considered above average.  Repeating their first place finish in saves seems unlikely.  The Kings certainly have the pieces in place to win the championship again this year, but their recent lack of consistency makes them anything but a safe bet.

    Posted below are the full projected standings.  These numbers point to an extremely tight race, particularly at the top of the standings.  It would be very easy to make a case for any of the top five teams to win the title, and even beyond that, there are reasons for hope.  It should be an extremely entertaining season.  So, to paraphrase Hawk Harrelson, it is time to sit back, relax and strap it down.  The 2017 DTBL season is upon us!

  • Story-book Beginning


    Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

    The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

    The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

    On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

    Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

    The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

    The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

    While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

    The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

    The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

    The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

    There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

    The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

    Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

    In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.

  • Three Near Misses


    The Kings winning the championship by the narrowest of margins, a year after finishing dead last, was a pretty good story in and of itself. But even if things had turned out differently, we were pretty much guaranteed to have a compelling narrative on our hands with this year’s champion. There were the Demigods, still looking for their first ever league title, dealing with the tragic loss of their star pitcher. Then there were the Choppers, who have quietly been among the better teams in the league the past four years, but hadn’t come particularly close to winning it all since their last championship 17 years ago. Finally, there were the Mavericks, who have probably been the league’s best franchise the past five years but have somehow not won a championship in a decade. In the end, these three teams fell painfully short of their ultimate goal.

    This could have, maybe even should have been the Demigods big moment. As I already outlined in the Kings championship article, the Demigods very well could have won their first DTBL championship had they not suffered the ultimate loss with a week left in the season when their young phenom pitcher, Jose Fernandez, was killed in an accident. One more win would have elevated the Demigods to co-championship status and one fewer win for the Kings would have given the Demigods the outright crown. But there were other ways in which this appeared to be the Demigods year to win as well. In the summer months, they were by far the most balanced team in the league. While the Kings were dealing with a ton of injuries and a struggling pitching staff and the Mavericks were basically playing two or three pitchers short, it was the Demigods who were near the top of the league in both batting and pitching points.

    As has been the case with the Demigods for several years now, their strength was their lack of weaknesses. Jose Altuve is probably the only player on their team who will receive MVP consideration, but the list of positive offensive contributors is long. Freddie Freeman, David Ortiz, Francisco Lindor and Matt Kemp (?!) were some of their top hitters. A late season surge (and Kings collapse) gave them the league lead in average, home runs and RBI. They finished just one point behind the Darkhorses for most batting points in the league. On the pitching side, they were also near the top of the league despite finishing a distant last in saves. Their rotation was as good as anybody’s, led by Fernandez, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto. Veterans Cole Hamels and John Lackey were pretty good on the back-end of that rotation as well. That’s five pitchers who accumulated 5+ PAR. No other team had more than three.

    The Choppers ultimately fell short of their first championship season in 17 years. But this was easily their best effort since then. It was their fourth straight season finishing in the top four of the standings, but their smallest margin of defeat since their championship in 1999. They finished 2 1/2 points behind the Kings. The last time they finished fewer than nine points off the lead was way back 2001. But this wasn’t just a matter of keeping it close. With just a week left in the season, they found themselves in a first place tie with the Demigods. Unfortunately for them, they were unable to put together a great final week to win it all.

    There are a lot of similarities between the Choppers and Demigods. The Choppers also had a solid all-around team with few weaknesses. They don’t have an obvious MVP candidate, but do have plenty of hitters who had really good years. Perhaps first on that list would be Anthony Rizzo. Mark Trumbo easily led the league in home runs with 47. D.J. LeMahieu sat the final weekend of the season to preserve his NL (and DTBL) batting title, but that wasn’t particularly helpful for the Choppers. Finally, the veteran trio of Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols and Dustin Pedroia all had very productive years for the Choppers as well. The pitching staff was really the strength of the Choppers though. They finished just 1/2 point behind the ballyhooed Mavericks staff with 39 1/2 pitching points. The rotation was led by three of the games best southpaws: Jon Lester, Chris Sale and J.A. Happ (yes, Happ belongs in that discussion). The bullpen was decent, but saves was the only pitching category in which the Choppers did not finish in the top three.

    I’m not exactly sure what to say about this Mavericks season. On one hand, going into the season, they were expected to be one of the teams to beat, just like they are every year, thanks to their impeccable pitching staff. So not winning it all would have to be a bit of a disappointment. But then when you look at how many devastating injuries hit their staff, it was something of a miracle that they were even in the race until the end. When all was said and done, the fourth place finish was their lowest since 2011. But it was their third time in the past five years in which they finished within four points of a championship. Shockingly, it has now been ten years since their last DTBL title.

    The Mavericks entered this season staring at the possibility of having the following five pitchers anchor their rotation for most of the season: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, Yu Darvish and Taijuan Walker. All five of those guys, along with their top alternative Joe Ross, fought through signifcant injury problems and not one of them reached the 150 IP requirement for ERA and WHIP leaderboard qualification. A team that was supposed to have one of the best starting staffs ever finished the season with Anibal Sanchez and Anthony DeSclafani (a reliever) in their rotation. Despite all of that, they still led the league in pitching points, thanks to an untouchable bullpen of Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman. With just a little more potent offense, they could have won the league. But it was pretty much just a two man show on offense. Mike Trout and Manny Machado continue to be two of the best players in baseball, with Trout having his best all-around season since his DTBL rookie year. I guess Hanley Ramirez had a pretty good season as well. But that’s about it. The final fourth place finish was disappointing for the Mavericks, but they once again acquitted themselves as one of the league’s elite franchises.

    Sorry it took me so long to get to this article. Hopefully, I’ll actually have a chance to write about the rest of the teams before the post-season award season kicks off. So much more to come soon!

  • Players of the Month: April


    Yes, I am continuing last year’s feature of naming a DTBL Batter and Pitcher of the Month following each month of the season.  Yes, we are more than a third of the way through May already.  No, I haven’t announced the April winners yet.  No, I don’t have a particularly good excuse for my tardiness.  Away we go…

    As a reminder, these Players of the Month selections are not subjective.  I am simply calculating each player’s PAR for the month and giving the awards to the batter and pitcher who led the league in that category.  I will also use these monthly posts to run down the list of players who won the weekly honors, which are also given to the players with the highest PAR during that week.

    Although the 2016 season is still quite young, it does seem fairly clear that we will not have a repeat of last season with one team running away from the competition right from the start.  April saw a bunch of teams swap the top spots in the standings.  At the end of the month, the top half of the standings looked like a bit of a flashback to the early years of the league more so than recent seasons.  The Choppers finished the month in first place, with the Gators and Kings in the mix as well.  The defending champion Jackalope appear to be quite strong again and the Mavericks are right there as usual.  As for individual player performances, April was dominated by a number of players.  Before we get to the best players of the month, here are the weekly award winners:

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars
    Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Welington Castillo, Gators
    Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) – Victor Martinez, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Chris Sale, Choppers
    Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Drew Smyly, Moonshiners
    Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

    There are some pretty surprising names on that list of hitters.  But the one of them who won the monthly award is not hard to identify.  Kershaw won half of the weekly pitching honors, but was edged out for the monthly award.  Here are the award winners for April 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    .286 AVG, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 16 R, 5 SB, 2.17 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Chris Sale, Choppers
    1.66 ERA, 0.684 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 32 K, 3.41 PAR

    Harper, the reigning NL MVP, picked up right where he left off last season.  He actually faded a bit in the final week of April and almost lost this honor as a result.  But his first three weeks were simply awesome.  He finished April tied for the league lead in RBI and one behind the leader in home runs.  His five steals were just one short of his full season total in 2015.  Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado also had great Aprils and I believe both passed Harper in PAR on the first day of May.

    Early in 2016, Chris Sale’s strikeouts are down a bit.  But the rest of his numbers are as good or better than ever.  He won every game he started in April and led the league in both wins and WHIP.  His numbers were nearly identical to his crosstown counterpart, Jake Arrieta.  But Sale gets the nod for this award by finishing with a PAR that was a couple hundredths of a point higher.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part IV


    The way the Jackalope dominated the DTBL in 2015, it is no surprise they are the favorites to win the league again this year.  But a repeat of their 19 point victory seems extremely unlikely.  The projections certainly don’t point to that.  Yes, the Jackalope are projected to win the league again, but with 10 fewer points and just a 2 1/2 point cushion over the second place squad.  That team would be the Thunder Choppers, who have generally not been highly regarded in these pre-season projections.  But after a couple straight fourth place finishes, they are a team that definitely looks ready to contend.  Although these two teams are expected to finish fairly close to each other, they are built much differently.  The Jackalope are very strong across the board, while the Choppers have an elite pitching staff with an average offense.  While other teams will surely be in the discussion this season, it will be very interesting to see if these two are able to live up to expectations.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the 2016 standings.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd-T (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins – 1st (7th)
    • Saves – 1st (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Points – 2nd (4th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers finished a very respectable fourth place last year, but were not serious title contenders.  It was their third straight season in the top four, but in those years they never finished closer than nine points behind the champion.  So while their continued success is a positive, they certainly would like to be in the discussion for a league championship come September and hope to end their 17 year title drought.  For all the talk about the Mavericks pitching staff, it is the Choppers who actually top the pitching point projections.  They are expected to finish first or second in all five pitching categories.  And this is almost all on the shoulders of returning players.  They wound up keeping six starting pitchers and did not draft a single pitcher who is on their Opening Day roster.  That allowed them to solely focus on improving an offense that was one of the worst in the league last year.  Kyle Schwarber is the big name among the newcomers, but they brought in a bunch of solid veteran hitters as well.  For the offense to be above average, Schwarber and his Cubs teammate Anthony Rizzo will need to have great seasons.  But they probably don’t need to be much better than average with the sticks because their pitching staff is loaded.  Chris Sale is the number one guy, but they have five other very good starters:  Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Danny Salazar, Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka.  That is impressive depth.  The bullpen is strong as well, although I think the 2nd place projection in saves is slightly optimistic.  Craig Kimbrel is clearly their top bullpen guy.  This should be a very good year for the Choppers.  They may not be able to win it all, but they do appear to be the best bet to unseat the Jackalope.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 2nd (1st)
    • Saves – 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    It woudn’t be much fun if the Jackalope were expected to blow away the rest of the league again this year, so nice to see just a 2 1/2 point margin.  But make no mistake, they are clearly the favorites to win the DTBL again this year.  And that smaller gap between them and the rest of the league is not a sign of this being a weaker Jackalope squad.  It is just hard to have everything go your way like it did for this team a year ago.  They are still projected to be a top three hitting and pitching team.  No other team can legitimately claim to be one of the league’s best on both sides.  It isn’t just the returning players who give the Jackalope such high hopes.  They were able to reinforce their squad with a couple interesting additions in the draft:  third baseman Maikel Franco and pitcher Raisel Iglesias.  But the most important players are the same guys who carried them a year ago.  Reigning league MVP Josh Donaldson left today’s game early, but hopefully it wasn’t anything serious.  Paul Goldschmidt also happens to be one of the best players in baseball.  And don’t forget that they didn’t even get full years out of top slugger Giancarlo Stanton and solid hitter Anthony Rendon.  So there are some reasons to believe they could be even better in 2016.  The pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.  Jake Arrieta was the steal of the draft a year ago.  Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole join him to make up the best non-Mavericks top three in the league.  There is very little drop-off in the bullpen either.  Wade Davis moves into a full time closer role and Mark Melancon led the league in saves last season.  The Jackalope will attempt to become the first team to successfully defend their title since the Darkhorses finished up their four-peat in 2010.  It would be pretty shocking if they aren’t in the hunt to do just that.

    Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, there is a pretty healthy gap between the two teams at each end of the standings and the other six in the middle. The Jackalope and Choppers appear to be the teams to beat with the Demigods clearly being the third choice. Meanwhile, the Gators and Moonshiners are going to need to significantly outperform these numbers in order to sniff the top of the standings. But for the most part, anything could happen. Should be another fun season. Good luck to all!