Archive for March, 2024

2024 Season Preview: Part IV

Sunday, March 31st, 2024

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With the first three full days of the MLB season in the books, we’re off and running.  Mookie Betts is on pace to hit .611 with 130 home runs and 324 runs batted in.  Let’s see if he can keep it up!  On a negative note, four of the top twelve picks from this month’s draft have already found their way to the injured list.  The rash of injuries is something to keep an eye on as it *seems* like there are far more than usual this early in the season.

Now to the final part of the 2024 DTBL season preview series.  This one will cover the three teams projected to finish at the top of the standings this year.  As I keep mentioning, the margins between these teams and the ones covered in the most recent article are razor thin.  Feel free to skip all the way to the bottom to see for yourself.  It is not particularly surprising to see any of these three teams in this part of the preview as they were all among the top five finishers a year ago.  These might be the three most balanced teams in the league as each of them are projected for at least 30 batting and pitching points, the only three teams that can make that claim.  Without further ado, here are the teams expected to finish in those top three spots.

 

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (6th)
  • Wins – 6th (4th)
  • Saves – 6th (4th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (6th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

Summary:

The Jackalope category projected rankings point to a team that is well rounded with no obvious weakness.  They also show a team that appears to be a little bit better than last season’s fifth place finish.  For what its worth, they were projected to finish third last year as well.  Offensively, they made small upgrades, but the top contributors figure to be the holdovers.  And of course, it all starts with reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.  He is projected for a ridiculous 14.4 PAR, which I think I can safely assume is a record since I’ve started doing these pre-season projections.  It is almost six points higher than all other hitters in the league.  Makes sense though, coming off a record setting 18.9 PAR season.  His Braves and Jackalope outfield teammate Michael Harris is no slouch either.  Adolis Garica, Anthony Santander and newcomer Jordan Walker fill out what might be the league’s best outfield.  The infield is pretty solid too with veteran Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Jung holding down the corners and Luis Arraez and Dansby Swanson up the middle.  The catching duo of Cal Raleigh and Francisco Alvarez is back for another season.  As long as Acuna remains healthy, it is hard to imagine this not being one of the better offensive teams in the league.  The pitching projections may be a tad inflated though.  They were compiled before staff ace Gerrit Cole got hurt.  It remains unclear how much time he will miss.  He will certainly be tough to replace.  Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow are pretty solid top of the rotation pitchers in their own right.  First round draft pick Grayson Rodriguez is an exciting addition to this group.  They also opted to roll the dice on a couple currently injured pitchers coming off great seasons in Kyle Bradish and Kodai Senga.  The Jackalope do have enough starting pitching talent to survive a lengthy absence from Cole, but maybe drop the expectations a notch or two.  The bullpen is a bit of a wild card.  Raisel Iglesias is the only well established closer, but Jose Alvarado is likely to join him if the Phillies don’t opt to go with a committee.  The health of the pitching staff is certainly the thing to watch early with the Jackalope.  If they come out unscathed, this will be a very dangerous team with understandably high expectations.

 

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 1st (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
  • Wins – 7th (5th-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
  • Total Points – 2nd (3rd-T)

Summary:

The Kings already had a very good offense, but now they may have the league’s best.  That is despite trading away their first round pick and not drafting a hitter until round three.  Of course, it was that trade of the first round pick that netted them Bo Bichette, who gives a big boost to a position that they were lacking production from a year ago.  The infield really has no weak spot now with Bichette at short, Marcus Semien at second, Austin Riley and Gunnar Henderson at third and the pair of Matt Olson and Rhys Hoskins at first.  They will benefit from having Hoskins back after missing all of last season with a knee injury.  Will Smith is one of the top catchers in the league.  They aren’t quite as deep at that position having traded away Sean Murphy, but Logan O’Hoppe will look to replace most of his productivity.  The outfield has been largely rebuilt.  The two holdovers are hard to beat though with Mookie Betts and Randy Arozarena.  The red hot Betts will most likely move to the Kings crowded infield next year as he is moonlighting as a shortstop for the Dodgers this season.  To fill out the outfield, the Kings drafted Chas McCormick and Eloy Jimenez and brought back Tyler O’Neill later in the draft as well.  There are probably other teams with a better group of outfielders on the whole, but Betts alone makes this a very solid group.  The Kings also rebuilt a mediocre pitching staff.  Gone is longtime ace Max Scherzer.  Zack Wheeler and George Kirby are back though and should provide ace-like quality once again.  Michael King moves into the rotation as a full time starter for the first time in his career.  The exciting addition to this group is second round pick Cole Ragans.  The lefty who the Royals acquired from the Rangers in a trade last year was one of the top starters in baseball in the closing months of 2023.  Finally, the Kings picked up another Mariners starter in addition to Kirby, with Bryce Miller rounding out the rotation.  The success of these five starters could be what determines the Kings fate this season as it is the one group that isn’t clearly among the best in the league.  The bullpen should be excellent, at least in terms of racking up saves.  Pete Fairbanks, Camilo Doval and Paul Sewald have solid grasps on closer roles, although Sewald is currently on the shelf with an injury suffered late in spring training.  Hunter Harvey may even have a shot at picking up saves if the Nats ultimately decide to go with their best pitcher in that role.  Despite pretty significant roster upheaval, the Kings should once again be in the mix for the league championship and at the very least should have an excellent chance of finishing in the top three for the fourth consecutive season.

 

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
  • Wins – 1st (1st-T)
  • Saves – 7th (6th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd-T)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

The Demigods finally won their first DTBL championship last season, doing so by being good at pretty much everything.  They finished in the top three of the league in every category except for saves and strikeouts.  These projections show them once again being strong across the board, but maybe taking a small step back in a few categories.  The trio of Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr and Corbin Carroll all head into this season as potential MVP candidates, at least if Ronald Acuna doesn’t have another season like last year.  Carroll won the Rookie of the Year award and finished second in MVP voting.  He and Tatis lead a very strong outfield that brings back almost everyone from a year ago, although Tatis is actually new to the outfield in this league this season.  Seiya Suzuki and J.D. Martinez are back.  The one key addition is Brandon Nimmo.  The infield will once again be anchored by Freeman, Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve, three guys who have been making the Demigods infield a strength for many years.  It is unlikely they will get the same kind of production from their first round draft pick as they did a year ago with Carroll, but Spencer Steer is that guy this year.  They do have a bit of a problem with another draft pick, third baseman Noelvi Marte receiving an 80 game PED suspension.  Replacing him will be the same person who will be asked to replace him for the Reds, Jeimer Candelario.  Marte’s second half return could give this infield a big boost though, assuming his prospect pedigree wasn’t enhanced unnaturally.  The Demigods should get nice production from their catching duo of Willson Contreras and newcomer Yanier Diaz.  The Demigods have had a strong pitching staff for quite some time now and that should be the case again this season.  Their entire rotation from last season is back.  Zac Gallen, Max Fried and Aaron Nola have been reliable mainstays.  Joe Musgrove has been excellent when healthy too.  And last year’s breakout star was Justin Steele, who unfortunately suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day.  When healthy, that’s as strong of a 1 through 5 rotation as you will find.  I don’t want to say the Demigods punt saves, but filling their bullpen with closers has never really been a priority for them.  They do bring back the excellent David Bednar and added Adbert Alzolay in the draft.  Like the Choppers, the Demigods will start the season with two actual starting pitchers filling relief slots with Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Whitlock.  This could give them an advantage in wins and strikeouts that isn’t really captured in these projections.  While the margin is extremely tight, it is not surprising to see the defending champions at the top of these projections.  The Demigods are looking to be the first team to successfully defend their DTBL title since the Kings in 2019.  They certainly have a roster capable of doing just that.

 

And with that, we have completed the 2024 DTBL season preview.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to everybody this season!  Happy Easter!

Posted in Demigods, Jackalope, Kings | No Comments »

2024 Season Preview: Part III

Wednesday, March 27th, 2024

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Happy Opening Day Eve!  Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get a full slate of 15 games tomorrow as originally scheduled since games in New York and Philadelphia have already been postponed to Friday.  But 13 games is still enough to get excited about.  It will be year two of the drastic rule changes that had a major impact on the game a year ago, most notably the pitch clock.  Now that we know what kind of impact those changes had, we pretty much know what to expect from a fantasy perspective now too.  Steals were way up a year ago and figure to level off at a similar total again this year.  A slight boost to hitters as a whole, but not at historic levels.  Just a reversal of recent trends of pitching domination.  However, the game is always changing even when the rules do not.  So we’ll see what this season brings.

We have six more DTBL teams to preview, and these projections show very little separating any of them.  There is just a six standings point gap between the team projected to finish in first place and the two teams pinned to tie for fifth place.  That gap is just two points for the three teams covered in this section.  This includes a pair of teams that consistently find themselves near the top of the standings and a team that is looking for a huge turnaround after an extremely disappointing 2023.  These are the teams project to finish in fourth and a tie for fifth places.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
  • Wins – 3rd (3rd)
  • Saves – 3rd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (2nd)

Summary:

While a majority of the league’s teams were involved in a tight race for the ’23 title for much of the season, eventually the Darkhorses were the only ones who kept within striking distance of the eventual champion Demigods.  They were able to keep it tight because they had by far the best pitching staff in the league.  Unfortunately for them, their offense just wasn’t good enough to win it all.  That was quite surprising because the Darkhorses have almost always been known more for their hitting.  Last year was just the second time since 2010 that they had more pitching points than batting points.  These projections show that trend continuing.  There may be teams with deeper rotations, but Spencer Strider and Logan Webb as a top two is pretty hard to beat.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Hunter Greene round out the five they figure to roll with early.  The Darkhorses pitching domination last year was especially impressive since they did it without Jacob deGrom for a majority of the season.  It remains to be seen when deGrom will return to action this year.  They have already proven they can be one of the best staffs in the league without him, so he will be a nice cherry on the top whenever he returns.  The bullpen will be without their top performer from a year ago, Felix Bautista, likely for the full season.  But they do still have four other guys who look like good bets to rack up saves:  Andres Munoz, Kenley Jansen, Jose Leclerc and Robert Suarez.  Since it is probably unrealistic to expect 48 pitching points again the year, the offense is going to need to be better.  One reason to think that is likely is because Bryce Harper should be good to go from Day 1 this year, unlike last year when he was recovering from a UCL tear.  He moves to first base in this league this year, joining a stout infield with Alex Bregman, Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and first round draft pick Royce Lewis.  J.T. Realmuto had a bit of a disappointing ’23 and is a strong bounce back candidate.  Without Harper, the outfield doesn’t have the same star power it once did, but they do have a bunch of guys with solid projections in George Springer, Christian Yelich, Lane Thomas and another bounce back candidate, Starling Marte.  This may not be the juggernaut offense the Darkhorses were once known for, but it sure looks like a better squad than what the results said a year ago.  Combine that with their outstanding pitching staff and you’ve got a team that should contend again this year.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
  • Wins – 5th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 9th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (7th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (3rd-T)

Summary:

For the last decade or so, it has pretty much been a lock that the Mavericks would be near the top of these projections because they had Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw and nobody else did.  Now, Kershaw’s 15 year run with the Mavs is over (well, I suppose they could pick him up later this summer as he nears a return from shoulder surgery) and Trout is no longer a perennial MVP candidate.  In fact, the Mavericks have six other hitters ahead of Trout’s still very respectable 3.7 Batting PAR projection.  They probably do still have the league’s best outfield with Trout, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm all being players every team would want to have.  Soto joining forces with Judge at Yankee Stadium this year should be particularly dangerous for the rest of the league.  The Mavericks middle infield is also in the discussion for best in the league with Ozzie Albies, Bobby Witt Jr and Willy Adames.  Spencer Torkelson finally started to live up to that MLB first overall draft pick hype in the second half of last season.  He will be rejoined by a now healthy Vinnie Pasquantino at first base.  And veteran third baseman Manny Machado remains in the fold as well.  The catching duo of William Contreras and Gabriel Moreno is pretty solid.  The Mavericks pitching staff had a very peculiar season a year ago.  Not too often do you see a team finish dead last in ERA, but near the top of the league in wins and strikeouts.  These projections show them continuing to be the league’s best at inducing whiffs, but leveling off in the other categories.  Basically every pitcher on the roster has elite strikeout stuff.  The rotation will be anchored by Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta.  First round pick Bobby Miller will look to replace his Dodger teammate Kershaw.  Hunter Brown should get his first full season in the Astros rotation.  And then there is Chris Sale looking to recapture his old form.  They even nabbed long time Kings ace Max Scherzer to be a mid-season addition once he returns from back surgery.  There are a lot of interesting options for the Mavericks rotation.  The bullpen probably won’t add a lot of saves with Alexis Diaz the only guy in a certain closer role.  But Mason Miller, Abner Uribe and Bryan Abreu all have such great stuff that they could be plus contributors just from their gaudy strikeout totals.  There is certainly enough upside in the Mavericks pitching staff to support an excellent offense to make them title contenders once again.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (9th)
  • Wins – 2nd (8th)
  • Saves – 4th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (9th)
  • Total Points – 4th (8th)

Summary:

Perhaps the Moonshiners made a deal with the devil to finally win their first DTBL title in 2022, because 2023 was a year from hell.  Their offense took a huge step back and the pitching staff completely cratered.  But boy do these projections show that turning back around this season.  The team that finished with the second fewest pitching points a year ago is pegged to lead the league in that metric this season.  That’s mainly because the Moonshiners drafted two of the three pitchers with the highest projected PAR among those available in the draft with their first two picks:  Tarik Skubal and Zach Eflin.  They immediately become the top two projected starters for the Moonshiners, closely followed by Jesus Luzardo.  There are several solid veteran options available for the final two rotation spots among Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander and Jose Berrios.  Time will tell, but the early indication is that this Moonshiners rotation makeover should be a success.  The bullpen also gets a big time boost with the return of Edwin Diaz, who missed the entire ’23 season.  Clay Holmes and Tanner Scott join him to give the Moonshiners a good shot at being near the top of the league in saves.  It is pretty close to a lock that this team is going to be much improved on the mound.  Whether or not the offense can return to championship form is more of an open question.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Max Muncy will once again lock down the corner infield spots.  However, the middle infield and catching positions are huge question marks.  Ezequiel Tovar is the only player at those positions who grades out as at least an average contributor, though J.P. Crawford would also qualify if he proves last year’s breakout wasn’t a fluke.  The outfield is in much better shape with Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani, who is currently entwined in a gambling scandal.  Riley Greene was having a nice breakout season a year ago before getting hurt.  Daulton Varsho will look to bounce back from a disappointing campaign.  Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Moonshiners rolled the dice on infielder Junior Caminero in the third round of the draft.  He will start the season in the minors.  But he is one of the top prospects in the game, so he could provide a huge boost to this team at some point this year.  With the disappointment of ’23 behind them, this looks like a Moonshiners squad primed to return to contender status.

Posted in Darkhorses, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2024 Season Preview: Part II

Monday, March 25th, 2024

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Before we get to the next part of the 2024 DTBL season preview, a very small spoiler about what is to come in the final two parts.  The top six teams in the projected standings are all within six points of each other.  Then there is a bit of a gap to the bottom four, including the pair of teams that will be covered here.  That certainly doesn’t mean that those are the only six teams that should be considered title contenders, however.  A quick reminder that the last two champions were projected to finish in eighth and ninth place in those season preview series.  So maybe this is where you should want to see your team pop up.

The two teams we will cover tonight actually have quite different projected standing point totals.  Amazingly, the team slated to finish seventh is closer to the first place team than the eighth place team in points.  So the eighth place team probably would have fit in better with the group covered in the first part.  However, when trying to split this into four parts, it made the most sense to keep the *extremely* tight top six grouped together.  Also, why not cover the entire Hosko household at time same time?  Here are the teams projected to finish in the seventh and eighth spots for the upcoming season.

 

Dan’s Diamond Dogs

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (1st)
  • Home Runs – 4th (5th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases - 5th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
  • Wins – 9th (10th)
  • Saves – 5th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 8th (10th)

Summary:

The Diamond Dogs are looking for their first non-last place finish in year three of their current ownership.  This does look like a much improved squad that has an excellent chance of escaping the basement.  It is a much different looking team this year in many ways.  Last year, they led the league in batting average, but finished in the bottom half of every other offensive category (except HR, where they were tied right in the middle of the rankings).  This year, batting average looks like their worst batting category, with improvement everywhere else.  The big trade of Bo Bichette to the Kings to make room for Elly De La Cruz can pretty much explain that swing by itself.  EDLC joins Trea Turner, Oneil Cruz, Yandy Diaz, Gleyber Torres and their other first round pick, Jake Burger, to make up a very powerful and speedy infield.  The catching duo of Sean Murphy and Luis Campusano is much improved over last year’s Dogs squad as well.  The outfield will continue to be led by one of the games brightest stars in Julio Rodriguez.  Josh Lowe could be a sneaky great addition to the outfield should he get past his current oblique injury.  Teoscar Hernandez gives the Dogs a total of seven hitters with PAR projections over 3, which puts them in more similar company with the teams yet to be covered than those down in the bottom part of the projections.  On paper, this looks like the most improved offensive team in the league.  The problem is, the pitching is still well behind most other teams.  Staff ace Sandy Alcantara succumbing to Tommy John surgery late last season really put a damper on the staff outlook for this year.  2022 #1 draft pick Shane Baz has missed almost all of the past two seasons and it remains unclear when he will return this year.  In the meantime, the Diamond Dogs will try to patch things together with a veteran heavy staff.  Shane Bieber was a nice addition, joining returning vets Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Charlie Morton.  The bullpen should be respectable at minimum with Josh Hader and Ryan Helsley.  And if Kyle Finnegan and Will Smith can hold onto closer spots, they will have a good shot at finishing near the top of the league in saves.  This really does look like a much improved team that has an excellent shot at moving up the standings.  Their ceiling may be limited though until they get their key pitchers back in the fold.

 

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 7th (5th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
  • Wins – 4th (4th-T)
  • Saves – 1st (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (8th)
  • Total Points – 7th (7th)

Summary:

As hinted at above, the Komodos are actually projected to finish closer to first place than eighth in terms of standings points.  On paper, this looks very similar to last year’s squad in every category except for saves, and I’ll be throwing some cold water on that saves projection in a bit.  It is not surprising to see little change from last year in the batting projections because most of the key players remain the same.  Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Cory Seager and Luis Robert are a great foundation to build upon though.  The first hitter the Komodos added in the draft was shortstop Anthony Volpe, giving them a bit more infield depth along with Ramirez, Seager, Christian Walker, Josh Naylor and Thairo Estrada.  Cody Bellinger had a great bounce back season in 2023.  If he is truly back to being an elite hitter, the Komodos outfield should be pretty dangerous with him, Alvarez and Robert.  The main newcomer out there is Esteury Ruiz who almost single-handedly will make sure the Komodos finish near the top of the league in stolen bases, even though he adds very little in the other categories.  While the Komodos finishing in the top half of the league in batting points a year ago may have been a bit of a surprise, it won’t be if they do it again this year.  This is a very good offense.  Similar to the Diamond Dogs, the questions for this team are mostly with the starting pitching.  Also like the Dogs, they lost one of their aces to Tommy John last year (Shane McClanahan) and are patiently awaiting the return of another pitcher from TJ (Walker Buehler).  They have slightly more intriguing alternatives though.  First round pick Tanner Bibee will step into the mix right away.  Framber Valdez has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past couple years.  Getting Buehler back sooner than later could be vital to the Komodos chances this year.  The bullpen looks strong.  However, a couple recent injuries to their two best relievers make that first place saves projection pretty unlikely.  Devin Williams will likely miss most of the first half of the season with a back injury.  Jhoan Duran is currently dealing with an oblique injury that hopefully won’t keep him out more than a few weeks.  Behind them are Craig Kimbrel and Carlos Estevez who are slated to be their teams’ main guy for saves this year, so it is still reasonable to expect the Komodos to finish near the top of the league in saves, but maybe not the very top.  There are enough pieces in place for this Komodos squad to take a big step forward this year, particularly if they get good news on the pitching health front soon.

Posted in Diamond Dogs, Komodos | No Comments »

2024 Season Preview: Part I

Saturday, March 23rd, 2024

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With the two Dodgers/Padres games in Korea earlier this week, the 2024 MLB season is officially underway.  The other 28 teams won’t start their campaigns until next Thursday though.  So it is certainly not too late to preview the upcoming season.  As usual, I will be doing so with the help of projection systems.  I have computed the projected league standings using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team’s depth chart.

On my end, I incorporate the numbers for all 28 players who were on each DTBL team’s roster at the conclusion of the draft and then scale to a total of 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched to approximate a full season usage of healthy players.  This means that every player on the roster is equally considered (assuming similar PA or IP projections) even if they are not likely to be on the active roster for the full season.  I do not want to be making any assumptions about other team’s roster construction.  These player projections were grabbed from FanGraphs shortly before our draft began.  I then updated each team’s totals as the draft progressed to save time at the end.  This means I’m missing some developments over the past few weeks such as injuries and late free agent signings.  Note that the players who were unsigned free agents *do* have stat projections here, just that they were not adjusted to fit into their new team’s depth chart.  In the team write-ups, I will mention any recent developments that may have changed the projections if fresh data had been used.

Now on to this year’s projections.  As I’m sure you have become well aware, these shouldn’t be taken too seriously as an accurate prediction of what is to come.  Last year’s projected standings had the eventual champion Demigods finishing eighth, for example.  These are best used to highlight each team’s strengths and weaknesses heading into the season.  As usual, I’m chopping this into four parts, trying to keep teams that are expected to finish near each other in total points in the same article.  I’m going to start with just two teams today because the clustered projections are mostly at the top half of the standings this year.  Jay will probably be amused by this particular segment because the two teams covered here are the exact two he called out in our email chain a couple weeks ago.  These are two original franchises who are experiencing decades long title droughts.  Perhaps they should be comforted by the last two champions being teams that had their own decades long droughts before winning their first league titles.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the bottom two spots of the standings.

 

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (2nd)
  • Wins – 10th (9th)
  • Saves – 10th (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (4th)
  • Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

This is the second straight year that the Cougars have been slotted in the last spot in our projected standings.  Last year, they were able to avoid actually finishing in that spot thanks to a very solid pitching staff.  Unfortunately, these numbers show them continuing to have the league’s worst offense, but also with a huge drop in pitching.  They did attempt to fix the offense that finished in last place in every category except for stolen bases a year ago.  Their first two draft picks, outfielder Nolan Jones and shortstop Matt McLain actually have the two highest Batting PAR projections on the roster.  The problem is pedestrian projections for pretty much all of the returning hitters.  Infielders Ketel Marte and Ha-Seong Kim were two of their few offensive bright spots in ’23.  They are projected to take a bit of a step back this year, though they should continue to be solid contributors.  McLain gives them another nice boost of power and speed to the middle infield.  Unfortunately, he will begin the season on the IL with a shoulder injury.  Catching and corner infield are clear weak spots, led by past their prime players like Salvador Perez, Josh Bell and Justin Turner.  The outfield lacks star power, but the arrival of Nolan Jones should improve the unit as a whole.  Another newcomer to the outfield is Masataka Yoshida.  The tepid pitching projections are a bit surprising because this looks like a solid group.  Their top four guys from last year:  Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery, are all coming off excellent seasons and there is no reason to think they can’t do it again.  Montgomery needs to sign with a MLB club first though.  The projection systems don’t love Kelly or Montgomery, which dampens the team totals.  The bullpen took a major blow when Josh Hader signed with the Astros, moving Cougars closing stalwart Ryan Pressly to a much less useful setup role.  Evan Phillips and Alex Lange will be counted upon to carry the saves category.  The path for the Cougars to smash these projections is having their pitching staff repeat what they did a year ago and have the offense inch its way towards respectability.  They are looking for their first top half of the standings finish since 2020.

 

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (8th)
  • Wins – 8th (5th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd-T)
  • Total Points – 9th (6th)

Summary:

The Choppers projections are very similar, but slightly better than the Cougars.  Once again, they show a team that remains weak offensively, but also showing a pitching staff taking a major step backwards from a year ago.  Short term, the Choppers biggest problem is that almost all of the pitchers they drafted to keep that staff going strong are currently dealing with injuries.  First round draft pick Eury Perez, fourth rounder Gavin Williams and eighth rounder Taj Bradley will all open the season on the shelf.  There is some good news for the pitching staff though.  Blake Snell finally found a new home this week, signing with San Francisco.  Unclear when he will make his debut, but the Choppers should have the reigning NL Cy Young winner anchoring their rotation again soon.  Dylan Cease getting traded to the Padres is probably a positive development for the Choppers rotation as well.  Logan Gilbert joins Snell and Cease to give the Choppers a staff with a ton of upside.  Now if they could just get a couple of those newcomers healthy.  Another bit of upside for the pitching staff is that it appears A.J. Puk and Jordan Hicks will give them a couple extra starters out of relief spots.  My projection system does not give them credit for this since all team totals are scaled to identical innings numbers.  The two actual relievers, Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano, are among the league’s best closers.  So this quartet could be a major reason why the Choppers exceed expectations on the pitching side.  There are only five players projected to hit at least 40 home runs this season and two of them play for the Choppers:  Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber.  That makes their last place projection in the power categories a bit surprising.  Alonso is joined by Triston Cases to give them a nice power combo at first base.  There is some major upside in the rest of their infield too.  Ke’Bryan Hayes started to break out in the second half last year, as did shortstop C.J. Abrams.  Nico Hoerner has quietly become a fantasy star mixing decent power with a ton of steals and a good average.  If one of their other young infielders, Vaughn Grissom and Zack Gelof, takes another step forward, this could be an excellent infield.  The outfield is where they fall a bit short compared to most teams in the power categories.  Kyle Schwarber being the exception, of course.  Second round pick Evan Carter is an intriguing addition to this group.  Finally, the offense should benefit from another year of elite catcher Adley Rutschman.  There is plenty of potential on this roster.  But the first step will be to get some of their pitchers healthy so they can make a run in this 25th anniversary season of their last DTBL title.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars | No Comments »

Dogs Make Room For EDLC

Tuesday, March 12th, 2024

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Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Diamond Dogs, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »