Archive for November, 2024

Ohtani Creates 50/50 Club

Tuesday, November 26th, 2024

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Normally, when you put up a statline of a .322 batting average with 58 home runs and 144 runs batted in, you would be a shoe-in for the league’s Most Valuable Player award. But this year, that was not nearly enough for Aaron Judge to win his second DTBL MVP award. Bobby Witt and Jose Ramirez also had seasons that would have won them the award in many other years. In 2024, however, there was another player who had a truly historic season. Shohei Ohtani became the first member of the 50/50 Club. Prior to this year, no DTBL player with at least 50 home runs had stolen as many as 25 bases. Ohtani more than doubled that, finishing with 59 steals to go along with his 54 home runs. The Moonshiners versatile slugger is the 2024 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

Ohtani filled up the league leaderboard this season. His .310 average ranked fifth. He led the league with 144 runs scored. The 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases and 130 runs batted in all ranked second. His 16.4 Batting PAR lapped the field and ranks second in all calculated seasons since 2005, trailing only Ronald Acuna Jr’s MVP winning campaign from last year. In both Acuna and Ohtani’s situations, the stolen base component of PAR has been wildly inflated the past two seasons since steals have exploded across the league since the introduction of the pitch clock and other rules changes in 2023. However, by any reasonable measure, they were still two of the best seasons this league has ever seen. Ohtani and Judge became the 25th and 26th players in league history to hit the 50 home run plateau. Before Ohtani this year, the highest stolen base total among that group was Alex Rodriguez with just 24 in 2007. On the other side of the equation, there have been 51 players to steal at least 50 bases in a season. The only other player to pair that with more than 30 home runs was Acuna last year. Truly unprecedented stuff from Ohtani this year. I guess he took full advantage of his year off from pitching after his second major elbow surgery last fall.

When the Moonshiners drafted Ohtani with the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft, what his future would hold in this league was a very open question. While they opted to use him as a hitter in 2019, most believed his future was brightest on the mound. To date, he has only pitched in one fateful game for the Moonshiners before being shut down from pitching for the remainder of the shortened 2020 season. Since then, he has been a mainstay in the Moonshiners lineup and would appear to have far more value at that spot moving forward as well. He has been a DTBL All-Star the past four seasons. 2021 had been the best season of his career prior to this one. In that season, he slugged 46 home runs with 26 steals, but with a much more pedestrian .257 batting average. It earned him a second place finish in that year’s MVP vote, behind his Moonshiners teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This year, Ohtani and Guerrero once again teamed up to lead a much improved Moonshiners offense. They finished a distant second place to the Mavericks in the overall standings, which was a nice bounce back after a disappointing 2023. As an aside, that 2019 DTBL Draft is looking like an all-timer in this league’s history. Ohtani fell to the fourth pick, but two of the players chosen ahead of him are no slouches either: Acuna and Juan Soto.

The MVP vote largely came down to how much weight people put into the Batting PAR stat, as Ohtani blew away the competition there. But as I have stated a few times, stolen bases are overvalued in that figure right now. So there was a decent case to be made for other players as well, most notably Mavericks slugger Aaron Judge. In the end, Ohtani received nine of the ten first place votes and ranked second on the other ballot for a total of 97 points. Meanwhile, Judge’s historic season in its own right that led to him winning the American League MVP placed him second in this vote. His votes were scattered all over the place though: one first, six seconds, two thirds and a fourth for 65 total points. He will have to wait for another year to win his second league MVP. While Ohtani entered a class of his own in the power/speed departments, Bobby Witt Jr and Jose Ramirez were in pretty impressive territory as well, with both joining the 30/30 Club. Witt, the Mavericks young superstar shortstop, won the batting title with a .332 average to go along with his 32 homers and 31 steals. He and Judge combined to form one of the most impressive offensive teammate partnerships this league has ever seen, and were a major reason why the Mavericks absolutely dominated the league in batting points. Witt received a pair of second place votes and 42 total points. Finishing right behind him is Komodos third baseman Ramirez. Ramirez continues to be the most consistently dominant offensive player in the league. He has hit a minimum of 20 home runs with 20 stolen bases in every season of his DTBL career except for the pandemic shortened 2020 and his rookie year of 2017 when he came up three steals short. This season, he had arguably the best season of his career, tying his career high with 39 home runs and setting a new personal high with 41 steals. Ramirez has been so consistent that he is often overlooked come MVP time. This is the fourth time he has finished in fourth place for the award, and never higher than that. He received one second place vote and 40 total points. There was a pretty big drop-off after those four. Diamond Dogs Rookie of the Year winning Elly De La Cruz rounds out the top five. His impressive rookie campaign earned him fifth place votes on eight of the ten ballots.

Click here to view the full voting results.

That brings an end to the 2024 DTBL awards announcements.  I do still owe Marc an article to document his dominant championship season, so I intend to do that sometime soon.  I hope you have a great Thanksgiving!

Skubal Claims Cy Young

Sunday, November 24th, 2024

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As mentioned in the Rookie of the Year article, the 2024 DTBL Draft class was not particularly loaded with can’t miss rookies and prospects.  But Elly De La Cruz wasn’t the only near certain superstar taken in the first round.  The Moonshiners went down a somewhat unconventional path by using the third overall pick on a non-DTBL rookie.  Tarik Skubal debuted for the Kings in 2022 and was having a solid first season in the league before an elbow injury led him to Tommy John surgery, missing the final two months of that season.  Since he was likely to miss most of 2023 as well, he was then removed from the league roster for that campaign.  An impressive return late in ’23 made him a highly coveted player entering this season.  The Moonshiners decision to grab him early paid off in a big way.  Tarik Skubal is the unanimous choice as the 2024 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

While Skubal had significant prospect pedigree leading up to his MLB debut with the Tigers in 2020, his first couple seasons in the big leagues were fairly pedestrian.  It wasn’t until the fateful 2022 campaign that he really started to put things together.  With a hat tip to modern medical advancements, he has returned from Tommy John surgery as an even better pitcher than he was pre-surgery.  He was the most dominant pitcher in baseball in 2024, by a comfortable margin.  The Moonshiners southpaw led all pitchers with 228 strikeouts, 18 wins and 14.8 Pitching PAR.  His 2.39 ERA ranked second, just .01 point behind Chris Sale.  His 0.92 WHIP was also second in the league, trailing only Logan Gilbert among qualified pitchers.  Few pitchers in recent years have combined such impressive strikeout and walk rates.  Skubal struck out over 30% of the batters he faced while walking fewer than 5%, for a very impressive 6.5 K/BB ratio.

Skubal was drafted by the Kings in the eighth round  of the 2022 draft.  While not initially expected to be a core piece of that Kings rotation, he did wind up throwing 95 very quality innings for them before succumbing to an elbow injury.  Despite his very successful debut season, the Kings did not seriously consider keeping him since he was expected to miss most of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Perhaps a questionable decision in retrospect, but he was completely dropped from the league roster for that ’23 campaign anyway.  What is not questionable was the Moonshiners decision to pick him in this year’s draft.  He immediately revitalized a pitching staff that struggled to defend their league championship the year prior.  The Moonshiners finished with 37.5 pitching points, their most since 2020.  That figure ranked second in the league this year, with Skubal leading the team in all relevant categories and having more than double the Pitching PAR total of all his teammates.

Not that he was undeserving of the honor, but it was a tad surprising that Skubal won this award unanimously since there were several other pitchers who had elite seasons.  The top two competitors were a pair of National League pitchers who fought for that league’s Cy Young honor.  We had a slightly different voting result in this league though.  Kings veteran Zack Wheeler had the best season of his impressive career.  He had nearly identical numbers to Skubal in every category except with a slightly worse ERA and WHIP and two fewer wins.  While Skubal received all ten of the first place votes, Wheeler got six of the second place nods and the other four were for third place, totaling 62 points.  Just behind him is Mavericks southpaw Chris Sale, who edged out Wheeler for the NL Cy Young award.  This season, Sale reestablished himself as one of the best pitchers in the league, leading the league with a 2.38 ERA.  While the Mavericks offense stole all the headlines, it was Sale who led the pitching staff to a convincing league championship.  Sale received four second place votes and a total of 56 points, six behind Wheeler.  It is his highest Cy Young finish since placing second in 2017.  As usual, starting pitchers were the favorites among Cy Young voters, but this was truly the year of the reliever.  Choppers closer Emmanuel Clase had one of the best seasons for a reliever in league history.  His 47 saves with an 0.61 ERA and 0.66 WHIP were truly dominant numbers.  His 10.8 Pitching PAR was the best for a reliever in years that have been calculated to date (since 2005).  If a relief pitcher was ever to win the Cy Young award again, this probably would have been the year.  Instead, Clase did not receive any first or second place votes.  His 21 total points comfortably ranked fourth though.  Rounding out the top five is another Choppers pitcher, righty Logan Gibert.  Gilbert led the DTBL with 208 innings pitched and an 0.89 WHIP.  While not really his fault, the fact that he only recorded nine wins probably sabotaged his chances of winning this award.  He has had three straight seasons of elite pitching for the Choppers.  He received 14 points in the Cy Young vote. Interestingly, there were nine players who received Cy Young votes, the same as last year. But not one player on that list was among the group from last year. Complete turnaround among the top pitchers in the league.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Two unanimous decisions for the DTBL awards so far.  For MVP, there is a clear favorite as well except there were a couple guys who had historically strong seasons, so we’ll see who comes out on top.  Look for the MVP announcement sometime in the next couple days.

De La Cruz Cruises To ROY Win

Wednesday, November 20th, 2024

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The 2024 DTBL Draft class did not have the same hype as the group from the year prior.  Nor did it prove to have as many immediate impact players taken in the first round as there were in the 2023 Draft.  But that wasn’t because of the player picked first.  The Diamond Dogs owned that first pick for the third straight year.  They had a fairly straightforward choice to make, with the only problem being that they were already loaded at the shortstop position.  After making a pre draft trade to open up a spot, the no brainer decision to select Elly De La Cruz was made.  And for the second straight year, it seems they may have gotten themselves a franchise building player in the process.  Elly De La Cruz is the unanimous selection for the 2024 DTBL Rookie of the Year award.

De La Cruz smashed onto the big league scene in 2023 and immediately became a fantasy stud, hitting 13 home runs with 35 stolen bases in 98 games.  Just a modest improvement over those numbers would have made him an exceptionally valuable fantasy player.  Instead, he nearly doubled both of those figures.  He hit 25 homers with a gaudy 67 stolen bases.  He also scored 101 runs and improved his batting average to a respectable .259 figure.  His league leading 67 steals were the eighth most in league history and second most among rookies, trailing only Scott Podsednik’s 70 steals for the Moonshiners in 2004.  Kenny Lofton also stole 70 in 1993, but every player was technically a DTBL rookie in the league’s inaugural season.  The only DTBL player to ever top both De La Cruz’s HR and SB figures in a single season was Ronald Acuna Jr just last season.  His 9.7 Batting PAR (which was actually 11.0 before last week’s adjustment) topped all rookie hitters by almost three points.  In a normal year, with the numbers he accumulated, he’d be a likely pick for the Most Valuable Player award as well.  But he’ll have some stiff competition for that honor this year.

De La Cruz is the kind of player who pretty much guarantees that the Diamond Dogs will always be competitive in the steals category no matter what, allowing them to focus on other categories for future acquisitions.  In year one, he lifted them from dead last in stolen bases in 2023 to fourth place this season.  Overall, he was the driving force behind them improving from 22.5 batting points to 33.5 and an extremely respectable fifth place finish in the final standings.  Largely because of him, the Diamond Dogs streak of first overall picks will end in 2025, unless they were to trade for the top spot.  Their shortstop trio of De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz and Trea Turner combined for an incredible 18 Batting PAR.  Oneil Cruz switched to the outfield too late in the season to be making a DTBL position switch in ’25, so the Dogs figure to run it back with the same trio in the infield again next year.  De La Cruz is the first Diamond Dogs player to win any of the three major DTBL individual player awards.

Before I get to the vote results, a quick thanks to Mike for immediately brining to my attention that I completely botched the initial Rookie of the Year ballot.  Somehow, De La Cruz wasn’t on it!  In my initial compilation of the list, I had picked out the top candidate from each team and then worked down from there.  For reasons I can’t explain, I actually overlooked De La Cruz at first and had Jake Burger as the Dogs’ top candidate.  Fortunately, Mike pointed this out before anyone had submitted a ballot so I didn’t need to issue a re-vote.  De La Cruz was indeed the unanimous selection, topping all ten ballots.  Second place was extremely tight.  Mavericks’ outfielder Jarren Duran edged out Kings’ starting pitcher Bryce Miller by one point.  Duran and Miller were two of the biggest steals of the draft, selected in the fourth and fifth rounds respectively.  Duran was a major cog in the Mavericks all time great offense and championship winning roster.  He was quite the power/speed force in his own right with 21 homers and 34 steals.  Miller was part of a rejuvenated Kings rotation, leading all rookies in the Pitching PAR at 8.9.  Miller actually received a majority of the second place votes (6), but was bested in the overall tally by Duran who got three seconds and six thirds to finish with 54 points.  Following Miller is another Kings starting pitcher, Cole Ragans.  The southpaw was a second round selection, but the first pick made by the Kings in this year’s draft.  He didn’t receive any votes higher than third place, but joined De La Cruz and Duran as the three players who were on all ten ballots.  Ragans finished with 30 points.  Rounding out the top five is perhaps this year’s most surprising breakout star, Cougars outfielder Brent Rooker.  Rooker not only went undrafted, but remained a free agent until mid-May when the Cougars finally snatched him up.  He still managed to hit 29 homers in 3/4 of a season.  Rooker picked up a second place vote which accounted for a bulk of his 12 points to place fifth.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Thanks to everybody for getting your ballots in.  I’ll be announcing the Cy Young award winner later this week, with the Most Valuable Player announcement mostly likely coming sometime next week.  There are certainly a ton of deserving players for each of those awards, but with clear favorites as well.  Will either of them be unanimous too?  Find out soon!