DTBL News

Month: March 2026

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part IV

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    We’ve reached the final installment of the 2026 DTBL season preview. I doubt too many of you are surprised by the teams that made it into this section, but perhaps you will be surprised by the order and the margin. In fact, the team projected to finish in first place may have deserved its own article since the team that slots in second is considerably closer to the few teams below it in the projected standings. Feel free to jump to the bottom of the post if you want to take a glance at the full projected standings.

    It’s so early in the season that it would be silly to draw any significant conclusions. However, both of these teams are off to good starts, and in ways that could spell trouble for the rest of the league if they continue. Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two positions in this year’s standings.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (1st)
    • Wins – 4th (5th-T)
    • Saves – 9th (8th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd-T (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Points – 2nd (1st)

    Summary:

    Despite what these numbers say, I would think most would consider the Mavericks the favorites to win their third straight championship. One reason to throw some doubt into these projections is that the Mavericks pitching numbers are probably under cooked a bit because they completed the draft with just three relief pitchers on the roster and therefore starters are overrepresented here compared to the other teams. On a per inning basis, relievers generally outperform starters in every category except wins. That said, that certainly doesn’t explain the full margin they find themselves behind the Moonshiners here. Most of the drop from last year’s point total to these projected totals is on the batting side where there may actually be a couple chinks in the armor in the categories of batting average and stolen bases. But overall, it is still hard to imagine there being a better offensive team than the Mavericks. Three of the top four players in projected Batting PAR are on this roster: Bobby Witt Jr, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. With Judge and Soto, they almost certainly still have the best outfield in the league despite Jazz Chisholm moving back to the infield this season. Mike Trout is off to a great start this season. As is first round pick Ian Happ. And don’t forget Jarren Duran who might be better than the best outfielder on several other teams. The infield isn’t quite as strong, but Chisholm helps make it anything but a weakness. He joins returning middle infielders Witt, Ozzie Albies and Willy Adames. Vinny Pasquantino and Manny Machado continue to anchor the corners. At catcher, William Contreras has become one of the best hitting catchers in the game. The stability up and down the lineup allowed the Mavericks to take some swings later in the draft at some young hitters who short term hurt these projections, but may not even be needed unless they are exceeding expectations. That group is higlighted by Jac Caglianone and Bryce Eldridge. The Mavericks are basically running back the same pitching staff that helped them win the title a year ago. It wasn’t the league’s best staff as a whole, but the top trio of Chris Sale, Hunter Brown and World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto are hard to beat. Freddy Peralta is a pretty strong #4 too. Nick Lodolo was tabbed to fill the fifth spot, but is currently on the IL, being replaced by another promising youngster in Cade Horton. The bullpen is probably the weakness of the team. Except for the fact that they may have the best relief pitcher in the game in Mason Miller. He is the only sure thing to rack up saves though. Finishing near the bottom in saves wasn’t a problem for their title hopes last year and probably won’t be this year either. The Mavericks may not be the projected champion here, but they remain the team to beat until proven otherwise.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (1st)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
    • Wins – 3rd (2nd)
    • Saves – 3rd (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (2nd-T)
    • Total Points – 1st (2nd)

    Summary:

    These have to be among the best projections we’ve ever seen for a team that isn’t the defending champion. The Moonshiners gave the Mavericks a run for their money last year, but came up a bit short as they couldn’t match the Mavs’ offensive prowess. These projections show a significant improvement of an already strong squad, but mostly on the pitching side. The Moonshiners offense looks much the same as a year ago. They are not going to steal many bases, but they are very strong in every other facet of the game. Of course, it all starts with Shohei Ohtani, who is projected to lead the league in Batting PAR, almost a point and a half ahead of the Mavericks star trio. He’s joined in the Moonshiners outfield by two other Dodgers: Kyle Tucker and Andy Pages. Of the non-Dodger outfield variety, they return Riley Greene and Brandon Nimmo. On the infield, they can go toe-to-toe with anybody, starting at the corners with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Junior Caminero and Rafael Devers. Bo Bichette anchors the middle infield with a couple youngsters in Jacob Wilson and second round pick Luke Keaschall. The Moonshiners rebuilt their catching core, which was one glaring weakness a year ago. They added two backstops at very different stages of their careers in youngster Samuel Basallo and veteran J.T. Realmuto. The Moonshiners don’t need to lead the league in batting points as they are projected to do here in order to win the championship. It certainly couldn’t hurt though. Where the Moonshiners stand head and shoulders above the rest is with their pitching staff. The top two finishers for the Cy Young award last year were both Moonshiners and are back for more this season. That’s a pair of southpaws by the names of Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. Perhaps you’ve heard of them. They were the Moonshiners first round picks in each of the past two seasons. That worked out so well, they figured why not try it again? So they selected young righty Nolan McLean this year to add a little more depth to this loaded rotation. And then they added another youngster with great stuff a few rounds later with Cam Schlittler. Plus, Robbie Ray and MacKenzie Gore are still around too. Assuming full health, they will have tough decisions to make each week on which of these six to keep out of the lineup. The bullpen should be excellent as well. Edwin Diaz and Cade Smith provide them with two of the best closers who also add huge value in other categories. Dennis Santana should also help ensure they finish near the top of the league in saves. On paper, this is pretty clearly the best pitching staff in the league. The Moonshiners have what it takes to dethrone the Mavericks. Now let’s see if they can do it and earn their second DTBL championship.

    That brings us to the conclusion of our preview of the 2026 DTBL season. Here are the full projected standings and team totals in the 10 categories:

    This should be a very fun season. We’re just getting started with more changes to come on the website redesign front. I’d still like to write about how that whole project took shape and was executed. But now might not be the time for that as I keep fine tuning things. Please let me know if you encounter any issues or have your own feature requests. In the meantime, good luck this season!

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part III

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    A couple days of the 2026 MLB season are in the books. Early takeaways are that Mike Trout may have found the fountain of youth this winter, as if the Mavericks were hurting without him at his peak. And the Moonshiners rotation may be even more loaded with the addition of Cam Schlittler. But we’ll get to the Mavericks and Moonshiners more later, because they are not among the rest of the middle pack of teams in the projected standings.

    The three teams that we will cover today are very closely packed with the three teams in the previous article, especially the first team to go today. These are teams that are strong enough to contend for the title if they exceed expectations in a few key areas. Their weaknesses aren’t so glaring that they can’t be overcome though. Here are the teams projected to finish in third through fifth places this season.

    Kat’s Komodos

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (6th)
    • Home Runs – 8th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
    • Wins – 5th (3rd)
    • Saves – 1st (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 5th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 5th (7th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos have not finished in the top half of the standings since 2022, but it appears there is a decent chance of that changing this year. These projections point to them being a much stronger offensive team this year, which was a significant weakness a year ago. That’s interesting because the individual projections of the hitters they added in the early rounds of the draft are good, but not great. It starts at catcher where they added first round pick Drake Baldwin and later picked Austin Wells to give them a solid foundation there. Josh Naylor somehow becoming a base stealing savant was one of the most surprising developments of 2025. Assuming that remains part of his game this year, he and his former Cleveland teammate Jose Ramirez give the Komodos an elite duo at the corner infield spots. They have another solid first baseman in Yandy Diaz as well. The middle infield was largely revamped with veterans Brandon Lowe and Xander Bogaerts brought in and Gleyber Torres brought back to add stability. The Komodos outfield is very intriguing with a bunch of guys capable of carrying the squad. Yordan Alvarez hopes to shake off an injury riddled ’25. James Wood was one of the best players in the league in the first half of last year, but had major contact issues in the second half that he will look to remedy this season. Cody Bellinger and Luis Robert are back to provide big upside to this outfield. One potential wild card here is the addition of Chandler Simpson who is capable of winning a team the stolen base title all by himself. Where he will fit into this deep group of Komodo outfielders remains to be seen. The Komodos pitching staff is not quite as settled, particularly the rotation. Well, the top two spots are. Christopher Sanchez and Framber Valdez give them two lefty aces who they don’t have to worry about at all. Tanner Bibee is a fairly safe bet to be a solid contributor too. Its the other two spots that are open questions. Shane McClanahan missed two full seasons following Tommy John surgery. He had a very good spring training though, so there is some hope he is finally healthy and can return to being an elite pitcher. Jack Flaherty was added as insurance. And who knows if Walker Buehler can resuscitate his career? The bullpen looks very good, at least from a saves perspective. Jhoan Duran is one of the game’s best closers. Carlos Estevez and Kenley Jansen should provide plenty of saves too. Even Edwin Uceta has a chance to be the Rays closer once he gets healthy. Overall, this should be a very interesting team to watch. The Komodos hope to end their top division drought.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (3rd)
    • Wins – 2nd (5th-T)
    • Saves – 7th (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Points – 4th (4th)

    Summary:

    On paper, the Darkhorses look pretty similar heading into this season as they did a year ago. They led the league in pitching points, but slipped to a fourth place finish because of a pedestrian offense. These projections show an even starker split between those two parts of the team heading into this year. But that certainly isn’t because of their approach to the draft. They took hitters with each of their first three picks. Much of what I wrote about the Kings offense applies to the Darkhorses as well. They have a very deep lineup with no obvious weak spot. However, their offensive core is veteran players who may be past their primes, leading to few players with truly elite offensive projections. Bryce Harper is the only Darkhorse with a Batting PAR projection over 3. Alex Bregman has a surprisingly mediocre projection, for which I would bet the over. Spencer Torkleson and Jonathan Aranda give the Darkhorses a very deep group at the corner infield spots. The middle infield is almost completely made up of newcomers to the roster who are proven performers: first round draft pick Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jose Caballero. Perhaps the biggest potential upside player here is Jackson Holliday who could be a post-hype sleeper once he gets healthy. The Darkhorses added versatile catcher Agustin Ramirez to pair with Hunter Goodman to solidify that position. The outfield is perhaps a bit underwhelming compared to the teams that are yet to come in this preview series. But it is also an incredibly reliable group, led by veterans Christian Yelich and George Springer. Jackson Merrill is capable of taking his game to another level. Then there is under the radar youngster Jakob Marsee. The strength of this team lies in the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation. Take your pick on who you consider the ace of this staff among Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb and Jesus Luzardo. Hunter Greene would have been included there too if he were not expected to miss a good chunk of the season with an elbow injury. They have someone to replace him though with what I thought was one of the steals of the draft, reacquiring veteran Sonny Gray in the sixth round. If Spencer Strider can get fully healthy and back to his old form, this might be the deepest rotation in the league. The bullpen is good on talent, but they probably won’t lead the league in saves again with Robert Suarez no longer having a closing gig to himself. Andres Munoz does though and will likely lead this group in saves. This is a relieving core that will contribute in other categories too though. The Darkhorses definitely have the pitching to win another title. The question will be if they can get enough elite performances out of their deep stable of hitters to chase down the other top teams.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 5th (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (8th)
    • Wins – 1st (4th)
    • Saves – 2nd (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 3rd (3rd)

    Summary:

    Just like the Darkhorses, the Demigods are projected to finish in the same spot as they did a year ago. However, the shape of that profile is a bit different this time around. Last year, they trailed only the champion Mavericks in batting points, but were below average on the pitching side. This year, they shape up as a well balanced squad, more so than any team covered to this point. Earlier this spring, the Demigods were in a rough spot with several of their key players suffering injuries early in camp. However, Francisco Lindor and Corbin Carroll made it back in time for Opening Day. Only Jordan Westburg and Seiya Suzuki remain on the shelf among players who suffered injuries this spring. Lindor and Carroll are two of four hitters on this roster with Batting PAR projections over 4. The others are Zach Neto and Francisco Lindor Jr. That’s a great starting point for an elite offense. Mainstay Demigods Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve join Lindor and Neto to make up an excellent infield. The temporary loss of Westburg hurts a bit at third base, but Royce Lewis was added to give them another option there. The outfield is thin on numbers with Suzuki down. However, Carroll, Tatis, Byron Buxton and newcomer Ceddanne Rafaela all provide five category production. Alejandro Kirk joins Yainer Diaz behind the plate. Assuming injuries don’t continue to plague this group, the Demigods should be a very good hitting team again this year. Where they will look to improve upon is the pitching staff which was not good enough to keep them in the title race until the end last year. It does seem they have made some key additions to address that, starting with first round pick Kyle Bradish. Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery late last season looking as good as new. If that continues into this season, the Demigods may have another ace to join with Max Fried. Another strong addition to the staff is the under appreciated Ranger Suarez who has been released by three different DTBL teams the past two years despite always putting up solid numbers. The other key holdovers from last year are Shota Imanaga and Zac Gallen. And then there is Carlos Rodon who had one of the best seasons of his career last year, but will miss the first month or so of this season recovering from an elbow injury. Gone are the days of the Demigods punting the saves category. Aroldis Chapman, David Bednar and Pete Fairbanks should give them a shot at leading the league in saves this year. This is a strong pitching staff that raises the floor pretty high for the Demigods as a whole. Their second championship could be within reach this season.

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part II

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    Hey, there is a real MLB game today! As we get ready for the official start of the 2026 season later this evening, let’s take a look at the next set of teams in our DTBL season preview series.

    As is custom, I’m not going to show the full projected standings until the final segment of this series. However, here is a bit of a spoiler. There are two teams that are head and shoulders above the rest, to go along with the two teams already covered that are a fair distance behind the pack. That leaves six teams closely bunched together in the middle. Those teams that will be covered in the next two articles are separated by a total of just nine points in the total standings. So you could very easily shuffle them up and pick them out of a hat in any order to come up with a reasonable prediction for this season. With that said, we will now take a look at the three teams in the bottom half of that group. It contains one team that is projected to improve greatly over their ’25 finish and two teams that are once again tied in the standings just like they were at the conclusion of last season. Only this time, it is a coupe spots lower in the standings. Here are the teams projected to finish sixth through eighth (or rather, tied for seventh) this year.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
    • Wins – 8th (5th-T)
    • Saves – 5th (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
    • Total Points – 7th-T (5th-T)

    Summary:

    The Choppers were about as average as you could get last year, finishing in fifth place in batting points, pitching points, total points and in six of the ten categories. Unfortunately, they took a massive blow to one of the areas where they were above average, in the saves category, when Emmanuel Clase got himself embroiled in a gambling scheme that will likely end his big league career. With one of their most impactful players off the roster, they put their primary focus on filling that gap using their first two draft picks on closers: Devin Williams and Daniel Palencia. Even after doing that, they are still slotted to drop a few points in the saves category this year. Robert Garcia, Clayton Beeter and Paul Sewald are all candidates to add to that save total though, making it a reasonable gamble to at least hold serve in the bullpen. The problem is they had to allocate so many resources to plug that hole that other spots on the roster have been left dangerously thin. The rotation should be pretty good though if they can stay relatively healthy. They are led by a pair of Mariners aces, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo. Woo was one of the breakout stars of 2025. You just never know what you are going to get in any given year from Dylan Cease, except a reliable number of innings and loads of strikeouts. Blake Snell and Eury Perez are strikeout artists as well, but not as reliably healthy as Cease. Snell will open up this season on the shelf with a worrisome shoulder injury. Overall, the pitching staff should be good enough to keep the Choppers in contention. The question will be if the offense can do the same with few upgrades made to last year’s squad. It would certainly help if Adley Rutschman could return to form as an elite catcher. His new Orioles teammate, first baseman Pete Alonso is the standout of the Choppers infield. WBC MVP Maikel Garcia anchors the other side of the diamond. Nico Hoerner, CJ Abrams and Trevor Story make up a reliable, if not flashy middle infield. Youngster Sal Stewart and veteran Jorge Polanco are the newcomers on the infield. The outfield is also mostly reliant upon returners, led by slugger Kyle Schwarber. Wyatt Langford was solid for the Choppers in his DTBL rookie campaign and could be ready to take his game to another level this year. Lawrence Butler and Steven Kwan are the other reliable returners. The main newcomer to the outfield is Daylen Lile who was one of baseball’s surprise rookie stars a year ago. There is enough upside on this roster for the Choppers to easily exceed these projections. We will see if the bullpen focus in the early part of the draft pays off.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
    • Wins – 6th (1st)
    • Saves – 6th (5th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (2nd-T)
    • Total Points – 7th-T (5th-T)

    Summary:

    I’m not sure the Kings have ever been projected to finish this low following a season in which they weren’t awful. But it’s not necessarily a huge surprise to see them here. Their roster is in a weird spot right now where they are probably as deep as all but a couple of the league’s best teams. However, they lack the truly elite talent needed to win championships. Gunnar Henderson is the only offensive player with a PAR projection over 3. So far, it looks like they completely whiffed on last year’s draft and are paying the price now as they had to try to upgrade some of the same spots on the roster again this year. There is some hope for strength in numbers with the bats though. A whole bunch of guys have solid projections and there aren’t any glaring holes. First round pick Ben Rice should give the Kings a leg up on most of the league at catcher, joining Will Smith at that spot. Time will tell if Rice is one and done at that position where he’s obviously more valuable than he would be at his primary position of first base. At the corner infield spots, the Kings will roll it back with the Braves duo of Matt Olson and Austin Riley, plus veteran third baseman Matt Chapman. Henderson and Mookie Betts anchor the shortstop position, with Ezequiel Tovar joining the fray as well. Bryson Stott is still around too. That’s seven infielders with solid projections. The outfield once again looks like a weakness though. Randy Arozarena leads the group. The Kings hope Jo Adell wasn’t a one year wonder. Second round pick Kyle Stowers is the key newcomer, but he will start the season on the IL. Much more alarming is that last year’s first round pick Dylan Crews struggled so badly this spring that he will open the season in AAA. Him figuring it out is absolutely vital to the Kings operation. They did bring back Heliot Ramos and added Alec Burleson as outfield insurance. The Kings brought back their entire top five starting rotation from last year. The problem is that the ace of the group Zack Wheeler’s ’25 season was cut short due to shoulder surgery and it remains to be seen when he will return from that and if he will still be the same dominant pitcher. Cole Ragans is also returning from a less serious injury. George Kirby is probably the safest bet of this group. Michael King, Ryan Pepiot and newcomer Emmet Sheehan provide decent depth here. The bullpen looks decent on paper from a saves projection standpoint, though Jeff Hoffman is the only one with a strong track record and good projections in the other categories. This is a strong roster from top to bottom, but several guys will need to join Henderson in elite status if the Kings are going to make run at the title.

    Dan’s Diamond Dogs

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 4th (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (7th-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
    • Wins – 7th (9th-T)
    • Saves – 4th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd-T (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
    • Total Points – 6th (10th)

    Summary:

    Here we have the first team projected to improve upon their 2025 finish, and in a pretty significant way. The Diamond Dogs are coming off of a disappointing last place finish, which came on the heels of their best ever fifth place finish in ’24. What immediately jumps out in these projections is the improvement on the offensive side where they are tabbed to be one of the league’s leaders in batting points after finishing among the back of the pack last year. First overall draft pick Nick Kurtz is the main reason for that. He has by far the highest Batting PAR projection of any DTBL rookie and should dramatically help the Dogs in four of the five batting categories. The only one he won’t help much in is stolen bases, where they don’t need any help as the reigning league leaders and projected to do so again. The middle infield, in particular, is filled with speedsters who happen to slug it pretty well too: Elly De La Cruz, Trea Turner and Brice Turang. Eugenio Suarez returns as the slugging third baseman. Steady veteran Willson Contreras joins Kurtz as the Dogs new first basemen. Ivan Herrera and Carter Jensen give them a solid young catching pair with plenty of upside. The outfield was a major weakness last year, but should benefit from Oneil Cruz shifting out there and away from their crowded infield. Julio Rodriguez is by far their best outfielder and a potential MVP candidate. Teoscar Hernandez is their other top returning outfielder. The Diamond Dogs hope last year’s first round pick Brenton Doyle has a much better sophomore campaign with them. But if not, perhaps his Rockies teammate Jordan Beck will give them a boost instead. On paper, this looks like the best offensive squad the Diamond Dogs have ever fielded. For them to make the leap all the way to contender status will require major improvement from the pitching staff too though, which doesn’t look as likely. Veteran Nathan Eovaldi had one of the most under the radar spectacular seasons you’ll ever see last year. The Dogs could use another one of those from him. He is joined in the rotation by a couple splashy young guns in Jacob Misiorowksi and Trey Yesavage, their second and third round picks respectively. Their staff will be heavily reliant on Orioles pitchers, three of whom are new to Baltimore: starters Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers and Chris Bassit, plus closer Ryan Helsley. They could really use a bounce back season from Sandy Alcantara who struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery last year. The bullpen could be excellent if Josh Hader recovers from the arm injury that currently has him on the shelf. Helsley and Trevor Megill will look to pick up the slack while he is gone. The pieces are in place for this to be a very good season for the Diamond Dogs. They shouldn’t be picking first again in next year’s draft.

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part I

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    Welcome to Opening Week! We’re just under 48 hours away from the first pitch of the 2026 MLB regular season. I’m a tad tardy on getting our season preview articles started as I’ve been spending more time than I had hoped cleaning up a few issues with the new site. But hopefully I’ll be able to get through at least half of the team previews before the season officially begins.

    As I believe I suggested I might do during these previews last year, I’ve decided to make a change in the projection system I’m using to compute these projected stats and standings. For years, I’ve been using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which combine Steamer and ZiPS and then adjust for playing time expectations on a per team basis. It’s that last part that was starting to bother me a little bit as I have felt they are far too optimistic in *not* projecting missed time for players who are rarely able to make it through a full season without spending time on the IL. Adjusting the plate appearance or innings pitched numbers really paints a different picture than the source projection systems intended. So I’ve decided to go with a different source which also combines multiple freely available projection systems, but does so in a way that makes more sense to me and tends to have a better predictive track record.

    Staring this year, I am going to use the ATC projection system, created by Ariel Cohen and also available on FanGraphs. ATC utilizes a whole bunch of other freely available projection systems, including Steamer and ZiPS. It weights each of the systems it uses based on their historical strengths and weaknesses in various categories. So essentially it becomes a “best of the best” compilation of all these systems.

    I grabbed the ATC 2026 projections for all players just a few days before our draft started and updated my spreadsheet throughout the draft to leave as little work as possible to be done after the draft completed. So if there was any new information such as injuries that could have popped up these past few weeks, these numbers don’t reflect that. The one exception I made was to completely remove Jurickson Profar from the Darkhorses projections since his full season PED suspension was recently upheld. Interestingly, this very slightly improved the Darkhorses final projections across the batting categories.

    The usual caveats remain. I’m not attempting to make any individual team roster composition guesses, so all 28 players who were on your roster at the conclusion of the draft are fed into this with their full season projections. Then each teams’ totals are scaled to meet a certain plate appearance and innings pitched target. Position slots are not considered at all, so the fact that the Demigods are currently the only team with three catchers on their roster probably does ding their batting numbers relative to other teams even though they likely won’t use more than two catchers at any time this year. So just something to keep in mind.

    Now let’s get to it. As usual, I’m grouping these articles based on teams that are projected to finish near one another in the standings, and am planning on going back to a four part series after doing just three last year. So we’re starting with the two teams that are expected to finish in the bottom two spots in the standings according to these numbers. Notably, last year’s last place finisher is not among them. Also notable that last year’s projected tenth place finisher actually finished five spots higher than that. So keep in mind that the point of this exercise is to peek at each team’s relative strengths and weaknesses more so than trying to predict the actual order of finish.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 7th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (7th-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (7th)
    • Wins – 10th (9th-T)
    • Saves – 10th (8th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
    • Total Points – 10th (8th)

    Summary:

    After a disappointing 8th place finish last year, the Jackalope decided it was time for a reboot and went with an extreme youth movement in this month’s draft. Each of their first six draft picks were used on players who made their MLB debut in 2025. So with such small big league sample sizes also comes volatility in the projections. With little to no track record on these guys, projection systems unsurprisingly temper expectations. Of those first six picks, only the first and second rounders, outfielder Roman Anthony and starting pitcher Chase Burns have positive PAR projections. They are clearly the stars of this group. Anthony joins an outfield that is by far the best position group of this roster. Ronald Acuna Jr, Jackson Chourio, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Harris are All-Star caliber players. And of course they have all-world catcher Cal Raleigh back too. It’s the infield where these numbers point to the Jackalope being well below average. Jeremy Pena and Dansby Swanson do give them a solid pair of shortstops though. To exceed these projections, the Jackalope will need at least one of the three young infielders they took with consecutive picks in rounds three through five, Colson Montgomery, Matt Shaw and Marcelo Mayer, to really break out this season. The Jakalope’s disappointing season a year ago was mostly because of the pitching staff. It doesn’t look like this year will be much different in that regard. Burns has exciting potential, but the rest of the rotation consists of veterans past their prime or extremely injury prone hurlers. Getting Gerrit Cole back will be huge boost if he’s able to return to his pre-Tommy John form. Luis Castillo has been the constant in the Jackalope staff for years now, but is clearly not the dominant ace he once was. Bubba Chandler is the other youngster besides Burns who they will turn to if the vets continue to decline or get hurt again. The bullpen looks like what you might expect from a rebuilding team with only Raisel Iglesias firmly entrenched as a closer for his MLB squad. Bryan Abreu has sneaky upside though if Josh Hader misses significant time in Houston. The Jackalope are relying on so many youngsters that it makes it nearly impossible to predict how this will go in the short term. The good news is that when you take that many shots, your chances of a couple big hits increases. That’s exactly what the Jackalope will be hoping for in 2026.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 8th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (6th)
    • Total Points – 9th (9th)

    Summary:

    This is exactly where the Cougars were projected to finish a year ago, and it turned out to be almost exactly correct not only in the place of finish, but where they would rank in most of the categories as well. The Cougars will hope that these projections aren’t quite as accurate this time around. The pitching staff was much improved last year, so the hope is that their offense can take similar steps in the right direction in this year’s campaign, even though it is not predicted to happen here. They took a more conservative approach to their offensive rebuild than the Jacklope, going with more proven commodities like Taylor Ward and Luis Arraez in the first half of the draft. Even first round pick Geraldo Perdomo was more of a substance over style pick. Perdomo joins a crowded middle infield, but he and Ketel Marte are the clear headliners. They return the Marlins double play combo of Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez. Maybe the biggest key for the Cougars offense to improve would be a full healthy season from second baseman Matt McLain. It will be interesting to see which of these guys get a bulk of the time at middle infield for the Cougars. They had to completely rebuild the corner spots with Tyler Soderstrom moving to the outfield. Arraez and Caleb Durbin were key additions for those spots. One clear strength is behind the dish with returners Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers, who are both among the top catchers in fantasy baseball. The outfield is filled with steady veterans like Ward, Bryan Reynolds and underappreciated star Brent Rooker. Rooker actually has the highest projected Batting PAR on this entire roster. The pitching staff looks solid once again, with more or less the entire starting rotation in tact from last year led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes. Joe Ryan, Nick Pivetta and Kevin Gausman also return and each of them have solid projections for this year too. The one newcomer is another veteran, second round pick Brandon Woodruff, who looks to put a couple injury plagued seasons behind him. The bullpen is a wild card here. Ryan Walker is the only safe bet to rack up saves, but Griffin Jax and Abner Uribe are two others with hopes of earning saves and solid projections in the other categories to go with it. The Cougars should have another solid pitching staff this season. The key to moving up in the standings will be for some of the bats to exceed these projections, with several strong candidates to do so in the middle infield group.

  • Kurtz Kicks off Draft

    Embed from Getty Images

    The 2026 DTBL Draft is in the books. I usually write this recap article while the draft is still in progress. Even though that is not the case this time around, I’m going to keep it focused on the first round. There will be time to cover some of the other players taken during the team previews, which will start to roll out soon as we approach Opening Day next week. Going into this year’s draft, it was pretty clear this was not going to match last year in terms of clear cut rising stars occupying the bulk of the first round selections. So it was not surprising that four of the players taken in the first round this year are not new to the DTBL and even one of the newcomers has a few years of MLB experience under his belt.

    The Diamond Dogs got things started by taking one of the few players in this draft who would have been a certain first round pick in any year’s draft. They selected reigning American League Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, whose game power took no time at all acclimating to the big leagues. Kurtz slugged 36 home runs for the Athletics while maintaining an elite .290 batting average as well. This is the first time since 2018 that the first overall pick has been a first baseman. It was the fourth time in five years that the Diamond Dogs have made the first pick in the draft. If Kurtz keeps doing his thing, the Dogs offense could be good enough to make sure a different team gets that opportunity to pick first next year.

    The second pick wasn’t quite as clear cut as the Kurtz selection. The Cougars opted to go with one of last year’s breakout stars, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Perdomo’s disciplined plate approach mixed with excellent speed and newfound power turned him into a complete player in 2025. He hit .290 with 20 homers and 27 stolen bases. What perhaps made this a surprise selection for the Cougars specifically is that the middle infield was already a bit crowded even before the draft started with four of their keepers being second basemen or shortstops. Nonetheless, Perdomo joins Ketel Marte as the cornerstones at those positions moving forward.

    The Jackalope went with youngsters with big upside pretty much throughout this draft, starting with third overall selection Roman Anthony. Anthony entered last season as the consensus top prospect in the game. Like Kurtz, it took very little time for Anthony to show his potential in the big leagues. The five tool outfielder hit .292 with eight home runs before an oblique injury cut his season short. His recent performance in the World Baseball Classic showed that he’s healthy again and already among the best young players in the game. It remains to be seen if the Jackalope youth movement pays immediate dividends. Anthony figures to be a big part of their future regardless of how long it takes to return to contention.

    While this may have been a down year for talent in the draft overall, that was not the case for every position. The league hasn’t seen an influx of top flight catchers in a while. This could be the year that changes. The Komodos selected ’25 National League Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin with the fourth pick. It is the earliest a catcher has been taken in the draft since Gary Sanchez went second overall in 2017. While Baldwin was a prospect of note in the Braves organization, he wasn’t really expected to be a big contributor in 2025 with veteran Sean Murphy leading the Braves catching core. But Baldwin replaced an injured Murphy early in the season and likely took his starting job for good. He hit .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBI, all outstanding numbers for the offensively challenged position of catcher. He will team up with later draft pick Austin Wells to potentially give the Komodos one of the best catching combos in the league.

    The Komodos saw one of their former players go off the board in the pick following their own. The Choppers were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie when they nabbed closer Devin Williams with the fifth pick in the draft. It was definitely a case of picking for need as the Choppers did not bring back a single reliever from their ’25 squad. Williams had established himself as one of the best closers in baseball prior to an injury riddled ’24 season and then a rough 2025 campaign in which he eventually lost his job as the Yankees closer. Now he’s across town with the Mets where he will look to fill Edwin Diaz’s large shoes as their ninth inning stopper. The Choppers went reliever again in the second round taking Daniel Palencia, in hopes of turning this obvious weakness into a strength.

    One of the more interesting players in this year’s draft pool was Ben Rice who has incredible value as long as he remains eligible at catcher in this league. The problem is, that very well could be for this year only depending on how often the Yankees decide to put the slugger behind the dish. He’s far less valuable from a fantasy perspective manning first base. The Kings decided the gamble was worth it for this year anyway, making him the sixth selection of the draft. Rice hit 26 home runs with well above typical catcher numbers in average, runs and RBIs as well. So long as he puts up similar numbers this year, he will give the Kings a huge leg up on most of the league at that position. Whether or not he is one and done at that position in this league is something the Kings will worry about next offseason.

    A second former Komodo went off the board with the seventh pick. The Darkhorses nabbed veteran shortstop Corey Seager who perhaps had lost favor with the Komodos after a string of injury marred seasons. When healthy though, he’s about as reliable of an offensive performer as you can get. The Darkhorses offense is what prevented them from being a serious title contender a year ago. They were particularly weak up the middle. Seager should provide an immediate upgrade at that spot. If he stays healthy this time around, the Darkhorses figure to be in the championship mix all the way to the end.

    Kyle Bradish has a chance to be this year’s Garrett Crochet, a player who has been on the DTBL roster before but retains rookie eligibility due to never seeing an active roster before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2024. I think people forget how good he was prior to that injury. Obviously the Demigods didn’t, as they selected him with the seventh overall pick, making him the first starting pitcher taken in this draft. Bradish is the second straight Oriole taken by the Demigods in the first round, following Jordan Westburg a year ago. Bradish returned from the long rehab process late last season and looked like his old self, throwing 32 dominant innings. Because he never saw time on the active roster with the Jackalope, he enters this season as a strong DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Another starting pitcher followed Bradish with the Moonshiners selecting young righty Nolan McLean with pick number nine. McLean really flew up prospect rankings last year and had an extremely impressive MLB cup of coffee. He retains MLB rookie eligibility entering this season and is the consensus preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Drafted out of college as a two-way player, it has just been a little over a year since he started focusing solely on pitching. So there is still huge room for growth. As we saw in last night’s WBC Championship Game, he’s not afraid of the biggest of stages, and has the stuff to back it up. This is the third straight year the Moonshiners have used their first pick on a starting pitcher. Good luck to McLean in living up to the standard set by Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

    The Mavericks really have no weaknesses, so the two time defending champs could go in pretty much whatever direction they wanted with their early draft picks. This time, they opted to pick up a steady veteran outfielder in Ian Happ. Happ joins an outfield that already consisted of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jarren Duran and Mike Trout. Jazz Chisholm is moving onto the dirt this season though, opening up a spot for another solid outfield contributor. Happ figures to be just that. Going with proven commodities with their first several picks allowed the Mavericks to take some big swings at youngsters later in the draft. If history is any indication, they will probably hit a couple home runs with those picks. The Mavericks remain the team to beat in this league.

    Thanks to everyone for a well paced and well executed draft. We’re less than a week away from Opening Day. Season preview posts will be coming very soon. Stay tuned!