Author: Kevin

  • 2015 Season Preview: Part III


    Happy Opening Day!  The season kicked off last night in Chicago, but things get started for real across the country today.  This is the third of my four part preview of the 2015 DTBL season.  I hope to finish up the last part on Tuesday evening.  This third part takes a look at a pair of teams that have quietly been building very strong teams and should definitely be championship contenders this year.  But much like the teams covered in part two, these squads have an obvious strength and an apparent weakness which is keeping them a little bit behind the projected top two teams.  They will probably need to improve upon these projected numbers in those areas of weakness to win the league.  But they are close enough where that is a very realistic possibility.  Here are the teams predicted to finish in fourth and third place this season.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
    • Wins – 4th (2nd)
    • Saves – 3rd (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 9th (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (5th)
    • Total Points – 4th (4th)

    Summary:

    Two years ago, the Choppers surprised a lot of people by finishing in third place.  Last year, they proved they belonged among the top teams in the league, despite falling to a fourth place finish.  This year’s projection shows more of the same, but also indicates this is a much different team than the one that finished fourth a year ago.  For one thing, it is strange to see a team that is projected to finish in the bottom four of all five offensive categories to still finish in the top half of the standings.  But the Choppers pitching staff appears to be one of the league’s best.  This was clearly the plan as they took pitchers with their first four picks in the draft.  Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka are great additions to a staff that already included Chris Sale, Jon Lester and Alex Cobb.  There are some serious health concerns in this group, but if healthy, they will be one of the league’s best rotations.  The bullpen took a big hit yesterday when the Braves dealt Craig Kimbrel to the Padres, costing Joaquin Benoit his closer gig.  So don’t expect them to finish third in saves.  On offense, the numbers aren’t pretty, but this is still a very talented, veteran group.  Look for Anthony Rizzo to be the team’s MVP.  Jose Bautista should have another great year too.  Really, not a lot has changed from the team that finished fourth in offensive points a year ago.  They just don’t have the shiny new additions that some other teams do.  There are plenty of reasons for optimism in the Choppers camp this year.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
    • Wins – 6th (6th-T)
    • Saves – 7th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
    • Total Points – 3rd (8th)

    Summary:

    Probably the biggest surprise of these projections in the positive direction is the Darkhorses coming in third.  But these numbers are pretty good indicators of just how close all of these teams appear to be.  The Darkhorses somehow place third despite being fourth and seventh in projected batting and pitching points, respectively.  But all of those rankings would be significant improvements for the team that finished in eighth place a year ago and hasn’t finished in the top half of the league since winning the championship in 2010.  The Darkhorses look especially strong on offense.  The additions of Edwin Encarnacion (trade) and George Springer (3rd overall pick of the draft) gives them a pair of sluggers that they lacked in 2014.  Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich and Xander Bogaerts are three young returning players who could be primed for huge seasons too.  The pitching staff is still the weakness, but should definitely be better than last year’s squad which finished with the fewest pitching points in the league.  Jacob deGrom is the key newcomer.  Julio Teheran, James Shields and Lance Lynn are the best holdovers.  Not the most impressive staff on paper, of course, but this group should be good enough to put them into contention with their impressive offense.  Sorry about the terrible pun, but if you are looking for a darkhorse pick to win the 2015 DTBL championship, this is definitely your team.

  • 2015 Season Preview: Part II


    In the second part of our 2015 DTBL season preview, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish in fifth through seventh place in the standings.  But as I hinted at in the first part, this year’s projected standings show very little gap between teams, making the actual predicted place of finish of little consequence.  In particular, very little seems to separate these teams in the middle of the pack.  I’m not going to post the full projected standings until I finish all of the previews, but here’s a little bit of an idea of what it looks like:  only six points separate the third through seventh place teams.  So these teams just need to exceed the projections by a point or two here or there to move right into the championship hunt.  The three teams we’ll examine today all appear to be very strong in one half of the game (batting/pitching) but not so much in the other.  For one of these teams, this predicted landing spot would be a nice improvement over last year, while for another it would be a colossal disappointment.  We actually have a projected tie for sixth and seventh place, so let’s take a look at those teams now.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (4th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (3rd)
    • Wins – 7th (6th-T)
    • Saves – 10th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (4th)
    • Total Points – 6th-T (5th)

    Summary:

    No team has transformed itself more since the end of last season than the Jackalope.  And boy is that change evident in these projections.  For years, the Jackalope have fielded one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  On offense, they have been up and down, which has been reflected in their place in the standings each year.  But they have made a philosophical adjustment to build their team around more predictable and durable hitters instead of pitchers with limited shelf lives.  Gone are their best starting and relief pitchers, Felix Hernandez and Aroldis Chapman.  In are Anthony Rendon, Adam Jones and a crew of younger pitchers.  Amazingly, the Jackalope are projected to improve in all five offensive categories and take a step backwards in all five pitching categories.  The end result is a predicted finish of sixth, down a spot from last year.  But I think the Jackalope are okay with this.  They’ll take their chances with Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole possibly becoming the next great Jackalope pitchers.  Short term, they have some injury concerns that could make things difficult early in the season.  Another young pitcher, Zack Wheeler, is already out for the season following Tommy John surgery, which happened not long after they drafted him.  Rendon’s knee injury shortly after they traded for him is also a cause for concern.  But if they can keep most of the rest of the roster healthy, they could have the best offense in the league and will be an exciting team to watch.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (1st)
    • Home Runs – 4th (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (1st)
    • Wins – 9th (5th)
    • Saves – 4th (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (2nd)
    • Total Points – 6th-T (1st)

    Summary:

    Woah!  I have a lot to say here.  First, it is very interesting that the Jackalope and Naturals are projected to tie in the standings because they are built very similarly.  Both look great on offense with questionable pitching.  But hold on a second… the Naturals are the defending champions!  How are they projected to fall all the way to a sixth place tie?  It’s starting to look like my methodology has an inherent bias against the Naturals.  Prior to winning the league last year, they were picked to finish tied for fifth.  So obviously, this prediction isn’t a death knell for them.  They have made some pretty significant changes for a defending champion though.  Zack Greinke and Anthony Rendon are gone.  They have also been hurt by position switches with Victor Martinez no longer being able to put up MVP caliber numbers from a catching slot and Rendon switching from 2B to 3B prior to being traded.  But make no mistake, this is still a championship caliber team.  Yasiel Puig is the most exciting addition.  But they also drafted a ton of young players with bright futures.  These projections really don’t care for their starting rotation, but you have to figure Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Richards and Drew Hutchison all have great chances to exceed these numbers.  Another wild card is Aaron Sanchez, who will give the Naturals a sixth starting pitcher from a RP slot.  So you should immediately expect them to beat these win and strikeout predictions.  If Sanchez doesn’t kill the ERA/WHIP, it is hard to imagine them finishing last in both of those categories too.  On offense, a team with Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki is nearly a lock to be one of the best squads in the league.  I am betting WAY over a 6th place tie for the Naturals.  A repeat championship is more likely than them finishing here.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 8th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (5th)
    • Wins – 1st (3rd)
    • Saves – 5th (6th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (6th)
    • Total Points – 5th (10th)

    Summary:

    The last team in this section is basically the polar opposite of the two above.  The Cougars have very good pitching with suspect bats.  In fact, the offense was so bad last year that they finished dead last in all five hitting categories, which torpedoed their season.  I feel like I say this every year, but the Cougars probably have the most underrated pitching staff in the league.  That appears to be the case again this year.  So with an improved offense, it would not be unreasonable to predict them to jump from last place to the top half of the league.  The main reason for optimism with the offense is the addition of Jose Abreu with the first pick in the draft.  Immediately, he becomes their best offensive player and could single-handedly make sure they don’t finish last in all of the offensive categories again, if he is able to come close to repeating his impressive rookie season.  Their first four picks were all hitters, so Abreu won’t be asked to burden all of the load.  The pitching staff is still the strength though.  Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner lead the charge, but Gio Gonzalez, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer are pretty good too.  And newcomers Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers provide impressive rotation depth.  The bullpen is solid too with closers David Robertson, Drew Storen and Jake McGee who add a lot in other categories in addition to saves.  A fifth place finish would be a nice improvement for the Cougars and seems very possible.

  • 2015 Season Preview: Part I


    The 2015 baseball season is almost upon us, so it is time to take a look inside the crystal ball to see how this season will turn out.  Actually, there may be no need for that.  Back to the Future II already has this covered.  As foretold in that movie, the Cubs will end their 107 year championship drought by winning the 2015 World Series.  Of course, the movie depicted Miami as the World Series losers, so one can only assume the Marlins will get shipped to the AL at some point this season as Commissioner Manfred’s first highly controversial decision in office.  But since the movie didn’t touch on results from random fantasy leagues, I will once again preview the upcoming DTBL season using a set of stat projections.

    Check out my post from two years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  Nothing has changed here.  Once again, I’m using ZiPS projections for all stat categories except saves (Steamer).  Stat projections for all 28 players currently on each team’s roster are used, except for a couple of cases where a player has already been ruled out for the season with an injury.  While all players are included, the team totals are scaled to match the regular roster size of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  So even your late round draft picks who you may hope to leave on the bench all season do play a role in these projections.

    Two years ago, the projections wound up providing a very accurate picture of how the season would play out, with most teams closely meeting their predicted place of finish.  Last year, not so much.  The Kings were projected to repeat as champions, but instead needed a late season rally to avoid finishing dead last.  Meanwhile, the team that actually won the league, the Naturals, were projected to finish tied for fifth.  So take all of this with several huge grains of salt.  It should provide an interesting look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team though.  Without further ado, here are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings this year.

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
    • Wins – 10th (9th)
    • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
    • Total Points – 10th (9th)

    Summary:

    Well, somebody has to be last.  One thing I should point out is that the stat projections have all of these teams at the bottom finishing with far more points than they accumulated last year, with a much smaller gap between the top and bottom teams.  So the Gators aren’t really as far from being a contender as these projections might lead you to believe.  They do have a similarly constructed squad to last year though.  They are a team of speedsters with a strong bullpen.  They lack power and do not have an obvious ace in their starting rotation.  Michael Wacha and Alex Wood are a pair of guys who could assume that role this year though.  Perhaps the player they will count on above all others to exceed this projection is last year’s first round pick, Wil Myers.  Myers had a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign and will look to legitimize his spot on the roster this year.  This is a very young team so there are plenty of breakout candidates.  Clearly, they are going to need several guys to do so, particularly in the power categories, to become a contender.  While the bullpen is a strength, that saves projection may be a little generous since Steamer has free agent Rafael Soriano pegged at 21 saves.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (10th)
    • Wins – 8th (6th-T)
    • Saves – 8th (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (7th)
    • Total Points – 9th (7th)

    Summary:

    The Moonshiners are one of several teams that attempted to reshape their roster through big March trades.  For years, they have been a little short of a championship contender, largely because they lacked ace pitchers who could carry the staff to the top of the standings in most pitching categories.  But now they have Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, two of the best pitchers in baseball.  Not surprisingly, their pitching projections are much stronger this year as a result.  However, the overall prediction is not great because the offense appears to have taken a step backwards, and the offense wasn’t great as it was.  Gone is Josh Donaldson, who was one of their few bright spots a year ago.  But a healthy Prince Fielder could be just what the doctor ordered.  Rookie Jorge Soler will be asked to provide an immediate power boost as well.  On the pitching side, the projections are so-so for a much improved staff.  But if the offense is at least a little better than predicted, Hernandez and Greinke could help lead the Moonshiners back into contention.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th-T (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
    • Wins – 2nd (10th)
    • Saves – 9th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
    • Total Points – 8th (6th)

    Summary:

    The last three years, the projections have loved the Kings.  But then last season happened and the entire narrative of this franchise changed.  No longer are they a powerhouse with a bunch of the best players in the league.  Now they are a squad with aging stars and very little to hang their hats on.  To be fair, part of the reason why they do not project well this year is because so many of their players are coming off injury plagued seasons.  As a result, those players are projected to play less than full seasons again this year.  And that causes the full team projection to come in with far fewer total at bats than any other team.  Presumably, even if those players don’t stay healthy, they will be replaced by guys who are.  So the Kings offensive counting stat projections may be a little low.  Nonetheless, they do not look like a contender this year.  But they do have a couple very interesting young players who could be part of future Kings’ contending squads.  Their first two draft picks, outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco, have a ton of upside.  The pitching staff is a major question mark with Max Scherzer being the only dependable pitcher on the squad.  This could be a bit of a transition year for the Kings, but it is hard to imagine them suffering through injuries to the extent they did in ’14. 8th place would be a pretty disappointing finish for them.

  • Blockbuster Trades Steal Show


    The 23rd annual DTBL Draft began a week ago Thursday. The beginning of the draft always brings plenty of intrigue. But this year, the early rounds were mostly overshadowed by a string of trades that were completed over the first few days of the draft. In total, seven trades were made in four days involving six different teams. And for the most part, these weren’t minor deals involving role players and draft pick swaps. Several of the league’s biggest stars are now on new teams. Some of these trades indicate new philosophical directions for entire franchises.  But before I get to the details of all of those trades, I don’t want the first round picks to feel left out.  So I’m going to do my usual first round recap first.  There were plenty of interesting picks made there too.

    Some years there is a fairly obvious player available for the team with the first pick in the draft.  Other years, there are several strong candidates for that slot.  This year was the former.  In what should have been a surprise to nobody, the Cougars used the first pick in the draft to select White Sox slugging first baseman Jose Abreu.  The Cuban star made his MLB presence felt immediately in the MLB.  He slugged 36 homers with 107 RBI and a .317 average on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Not bad for a guy adapting to a new league, not to mention a new country.  Abreu is the second straight Cuban player to be picked first in the DTBL Draft, following Yasiel Puig a year ago.  The Cougars badly needed an offensive boost after finishing last in all five categories a year ago, further making Abreu the obvious choice.  Really the only slight negative about him is that he is 28 years old.  That makes him the oldest first overall pick since the expansion Naturals took Jeff Bagwell back in 2002.  Curtis Granderson was just a couple months younger when the Choppers picked him in 2009.  Nonetheless, Abreu profiles as a guy who should help the Cougars for many years to come.

    After Abreu came a string of four straight young outfielders with big upside.  With the second pick, the Gators selected the most established of the four when they picked up Corey Dickerson.  The Rockies slugger hit .312 with 24 home runs in his breakout season of 2014.  Playing half his games in Coors Field makes it easy to believe those numbers could get even better with a full season of playing every day.  Next, the Darkhorses selected George Springer of the Astros who displayed his immense power by hitting 20 home runs in his rookie year in fewer than 300 at bats.  He has five tool potential if he can cut down on his strikeouts a bit.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners took one of the bevy of up-and-coming Cubs superstars, Jorge Soler.  Somewhat overshadowed by a couple of those other Cubs prospects, Soler is the one who has already proven his worth at the big league level putting up solid numbers after his late season promotion last year.  Finally, the Kings used the fifth pick on another outfielder with big potential, Mookie Betts.  Betts can do it all.  His only current obstacle is a crowded Red Sox outfield, but you would think they will find a way to get him in the lineup one way or another.

    The Jackalope ended the string of outfielders by going with the draft’s first pitcher with pick number six.  They selected Cubs hurler Jake Arrieta, who broke out in a big way last season.  This was not a surprising selection on the heels of the trade the Jackalope made immediately prior to the pick, which I will get to in a bit. Arrieta figures to be a major part of their rebuilt rotation.  The Choppers also took a pitcher in the seventh spot, selecting Tyson Ross.  The Padres pitcher had an outstanding season a year ago, but didn’t garner a ton of attention.  That should change this year thanks to the revamped Padres lineup.

    As is their custom, the Mavericks were able to pick up an extra first round selection in a deal with the Demigods.  So they had two consecutive picks late in the first round.  They used those picks to draft Yankees relief pitcher Dellin Betances and Cubs shortstop Javier Baez.  These were both high risk/reward picks.  Betances put up ridiculously strong numbers out of the bullpen last year, but his value in fantasy depends largely on whether or not he will be a closer this year.  That seems likely, but he hasn’t been officially handed the job.  He can help the Mavericks in ERA, WHIP and K’s though, even if they go a different route (especially since they picked the other leading Yankees closer candidate later, Andrew Miller).  Baez is about as big of a risk/reward pick as you can get.  On one hand, he has immense power that could blow away all other middle infielders on the board.  But on the other, he has shown no plate discipline at all at the big league level and could easily wind up in AAA.  Of course, the Mavs have plenty of other players ready to fill that spot if Baez doesn’t pan out.  Finally, the defending champion Naturals finished the first round by selecting another good, young pitcher in Carlos Carrasco.  Slightly overshadowed by Indians teammate Corey Kluber last year, Carrasco could become a Cy Young candidate himself this year if he pitches like he did in ’14.

    So that first round was all well and good, but it was most certainly NOT the biggest story of the past ten days.  There were four huge trades made on the first day of the draft before Abreu was selected with the first pick.  Then three more major deals were completed before two rounds were in the books.  These trades range from championship contenders looking to solidify their rosters, to second tier teams trying to plug major holes, to major franchise overhauls.  It is difficult to pinpoint which teams will be the big winners and losers from these deals, but one thing is for sure:  the players/picks involved in these trades will play a major role in determining how teams finish this year.

    The first domino to fall was the Naturals trading Zack Greinke and their fifth round pick to the Moonshiners for Wilson Ramos and a second round pick.  Star pitchers being dealt was a big theme of the week and Greinke was the first.  The Moonshiners badly needed an ace to anchor a rotation that hasn’t really had a standout performer in recent years.  Greinke held that ace title for the Moonshiners for about a day.  The Naturals needed a catcher to fill the crucial spot held by Victor Martinez last year.  They used that early second round pick to select Garrett Richards, who they will count on to replace Greinke.  This is the second time Greinke has been involved in a major March trade.  The Naturals acquired him from the Jackalope in 2011 in a deal that saw Ryan Howard go the other way.  Greinke had four tremendous seasons for the Naturals and should be a major piece of the future for the Moonshiners as well.

    The next trade was something you don’t usually see in March:  a one-for-one trade of star pitchers with no other picks or pieces involved.  The Mavericks traded their first round pick from a year ago, young starting pitcher Gerrit Cole, to the Jackalope for one of the best closers in the league, Aroldis Chapman.  This was the first of many changes for the Jackalope, who felt the need to get younger, particularly in the rotation with ailing veteran Cliff Lee’s season being in jeopardy.  Meanwhile, Chapman (along with first round pick Betances) give the Mavericks an almost unfair bullpen full of fireballers.  Their rotation isn’t too shaby either.  If I had to pick one team as a lock to win one category this year, it would be the Mavericks and strikeouts.  Barring injury, they look pretty solid in the other four pitching categories too.

    As it turns out, the Cole/Chapman deal was just a precursor to a couple more one-for-one deals involving superstars.  The Jackalope immediately turned around and dealt their first overall pick from a year ago, Yasiel Puig, to the Naturals for third baseman Anthony Rendon.  This would have looked like an insane trade a year ago considering the Naturals nabbed Rendon in the sixth round.  But he was quietly one of the most valuable players in the league last year and plays a much more difficult position to fill.  Of course, his switch from second to third created a bit of a problem for the Naturals who were already loaded at the corners.  Unfortunately for the Jackalope, Rendon wound up injuring his knee right around the time this deal was made, which was part of a pretty tough week of injury news for their squad.  However, Rendon’s injury isn’t considered to be too serious, but will be worth watching as the season approaches.  Meanwhile, the Naturals are happy to have Puig and hope he can bounce back from a slightly disappointing season a year ago.  He clearly has major talent and big upside at his young age.

    The final pre-draft trade skewed a little older.  The Mavericks dealt slugging first baseman Edwin Encarnacion to the Darkhorses for shortstop Hanley Ramirez.  The Darkhorses acquired one of the most consistent power sources in recent years while the Mavericks picked up a power source of their own at a premium position.  This figures to be Ramirez’s last year at shortstop though since the Red Sox plan to play him in the outfield.  Only Marc knows for sure, but I’m not positive this deal would have happened had they known they would be able to pick Baez in the draft.  As it currently stands, the Mavericks have five middle infielders and dealing Encarnacion temporarily left them without a first baseman.  But that is a much easier position to fill than 2B/SS.  The Darkhorses are hoping two ex-Mavs players will help boost their power output.  They also drafted former Maverick Carlos Santana.

    The start of the draft did not end the flurry of trades.  Halfway through the first round, a deal was made that somehow managed to exceed the four I just detailed in terms of star power.  The Jackalope traded arguably the second best pitcher in baseball, Felix Hernandez, along with Ian Kennedy to the Moonshiners for third baseman Josh Donaldson and a fourth round pick.  Suddenly, the Moonshiners pitching problems were a thing of the past.  The additions of Hernandez, Greinke and Kennedy is about as big of a rotation upgrade as a team can realistically make.  Despite only being 28 years old, King Felix is already 10th on the DTBL’s all-time strikeout list.  He was a workhorse for the Jackalope in his nine seasons with them, pitching at least 180 innings every season and has struck out over 200 batters in six consecutive seasons.  He will be reunited with two other former Jackalope rotation-mates with the Moonshiners:  Greinke and Jered Weaver.  This signals a huge overhaul for the Jackalope who have been slightly burned in recent years by deteriorating health of their once invincible pitching staff.  Roy Halladay and now Cliff Lee seem to have been lost without getting anything in return.  They elected to make sure the same thing didn’t happen with Hernandez.  The Jackalope rotations of about five years ago were some of the best collection of pitchers this league has ever seen.  But now all are gone, except for Lee, who may never pitch again.  Oh yeah, almost forgot to mention that the Jackalope acquired Donaldson who was the Moonshiners first round pick a year ago.  Donaldson had a huge DTBL rookie campaign and could be in for even more now that he has moved to hitter friendly Toronto.

    The next trade was of the more traditional draft day variety.  The Mavericks did what they do best, acquired an extra first round pick from the Demigods in exchange for second and third round picks.  As already mentioned, the Mavericks used that extra pick to acquire Javier Baez following their own selection of Dellin Betances.  As for the Demigods who probably had as few holes to fill as any team entering this draft, they moved down and took outfielder J.D. Martinez with that pick acquired from the Mavericks.  The third round pick turned into relief pitcher Santiago Casilla.  Interestingly, that second round slot was actually a pick they had previously traded to the Mavericks in a deal last May.

    Finally, the Jackalope had one more superstar to trade away.  They dealt franchise icon Albert Pujols to the Mavericks along with a third round pick for Adam Jones.  A couple years ago, trading away Pujols AND a pick for Jones would have been preposterous.  But Pujols is clearly on the downside of his career and is not the perennial MVP candidate that he was for most of his career.  He is the Jackalope franchise leader in home runs, RBI and runs, all by very comfortable margins.  He spent 13 remarkable seasons with the franchise.  So trading him away couldn’t have been easy.  The Jackalope will have a much different look in 2015 without Prince Albert and King Felix.  Adam Jones is no slouch though.  He has hit 25+ homers each of the past four years and has become one of the most consistent outfield contributors in the league.  As for the Mavericks, this deal was mostly about plugging that hole left by the departure of Encarnacion.  Although Pujols isn’t the hitter he once was, by normal standards of judging players, he’s still one of the better first basemen in the league.  If he stays healthy, he should have several more big seasons in him.

    So that sums up the first round of the draft and the seven deals that have been made so far this month.  It has been a well paced draft as we currently sit at the end of the eighth round with still two full weeks before the start of the season.  Thanks to everyone for keeping it moving and good luck with the remainder of the draft.

  • PAR Review: 2010-2014

    With the DTBL Draft scheduled to begin later this week, teams are no doubt planning for their future.  But before we go there, I’d  like to take a moment to step back in time.  One of my projects for this winter has been to retroactively calculate PAR stats for previous seasons.  At a minimum, my goal was to complete the five most recent seasons to give me a decent sample size to analyze the numbers and provide a basis for something else I will be tackling down the road.  So that is exactly what I did.  PAR numbers have been calculated for all DTBL players dating back to the 2010 season.  Eventually, I hope to get this completed all the way back to the beginning of the league, but it will be a slow process.  But for now, I’d like to take a closer look at the five years worth of data I have compiled, draw some conclusions from the data and analyze how these numbers match up with the way league members valued players each year in the DTBL Awards votes.  This will also be a bit of a look at league trends over this five year period.

    First, I don’t want to assume you all remember every last detail about the Points Above Replacement statistic I introduced last summer.  If you need a PAR primer, I highly recommend skimming through my introductory article.  In an incredibly brief summary, the purpose of PAR is to determine a player’s value in terms of the number of points he contributes to his team in the standings over a replacement level player.  In theory, a player with a 5.0 PAR means that the team earned approximately five more points in the standings than they would have if they had used a replacement level player to fill that roster spot instead.

    Now it’s time to look at the results at a macro level.  To assist with this, I quickly put together a new page which contains year-by-year league-wide totals in all statistical categories, including PAR.  For now, that single table is the only thing on the page, but eventually I envision adding a lot more data and making it sort of a league almanac.  Here it is.  You may want to open that page in a new tab because I will be referencing it a bunch.  For now, you can reach the page on the league site by clicking on the “Archives” header.  I may move it elsewhere later though.

    Since the idea behind the “replacement level” setting for PAR was a team full of players that would finish in last place in each category, I would expect the total PAR earned by every player in the league during the season to be approximately 450.  That’s 45 points to be gained by nine non-last place finishing teams in each of the 10 categories.  As you can see in that table I just linked, the league’s total PAR in the five years I have computed so far was very close to the expected 450 in the 2010-12 seasons, but has fallen well short each of the last two years.  But when you break it out into batting PAR and pitching PAR, the results are not very close to the expected 225 in most cases.  In most years, batters have fallen well short of the expected total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  But I think there is a very logical explanation for this, and overall, I am pleased with the results so far.  Here’s why:

    As I mentioned in the initial PAR article, I decided to use a span of five years to set the replacement level baseline and determine the values needed to earn points in each category.  I did this because I didn’t want huge fluctuations in the numbers used to compute PAR from one year to the next.  So a player who puts up identical numbers in consecutive years should have more or less the same PAR.  But the downside to using a five year sample is that drastic shifts in league-wide stat totals throws the baseline out of whack.  And that’s exactly what has happened in this league for over a decade now.  Offensive numbers have been on a steady decline since the heart of the steroid era and pitching numbers have drastically improved.  Looking at that table again, you will see that with the exception of 2012, the league batting average and ERA have gone down every season since 2006.  The last two years, in particular, have seen incredible drops in offensive production.  2014 was the first season since this league expanded to 10 teams in 1998 that DTBL players failed to accumulate 1000 runs scored.  The league ERA and WHIP were at all time lows, by a fairly comfortable margin.

    Because these trends have been consistently heading in one direction over the five years I’ve examined so far (really, it’s nine years since the ’10 PAR calculations include numbers dating back to ’06), the season in question was always being compared to a sample set of five years with higher offensive output and less impressive pitching stats.  Therefore, batters failing to accumulate a league-wide total of 225 PAR is to be expected.  The extent to which hitters have failed to reach 225 PAR has exceeded the amount in which pitchers have gone past that number in most seasons.  This is because pitching PAR contains two stats that have been extremely consistent from year-to-year and aren’t particularly affected by the lack of offense in recent years:  wins and saves.  So while hitters have at least four categories that have seen tumbling totals (AVG, HR, RBI, R), the effect on pitching stats has been mostly limited to three categories (ERA, WHIP, K).

    Once I finally start to compute PAR in seasons that didn’t have a drastic change in league totals compared to the previous five seasons, we should start to see these numbers come much closer to the expected values.  Actually, we already have one such season in 2012.  2012 was actually a slightly better year for hitters than the previous two seasons and was right in line with the five year averages from ’08-’12.  So it is encouraging to see that the batting and pitching PAR totals were both right around 225 that year.  In conclusion from looking at the league PAR totals, the numbers may seem out of whack and pitchers are certainly earning points at a higher rate than hitters, but I do not think this negates the value of the stat.  You just need to keep these things in mind when determining how you personally value each player.

    Now I’d like to take a look at the top PAR earning batters and pitchers in each of the five seasons and see how those players finished in the DTBL MVP and Cy Young votes in the corresponding season.  The reason why I think this is something worth looking at is to see how the value league members have placed on particular players has matched up with the value determined by PAR.

    2014

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Mike Trout 1st Clayton Kershaw 1st
    2nd Jose Altuve 4th Johnny Cueto 2nd
    3rd Michael Brantley 5th Felix Hernandez 3rd
    4th Giancarlo Stanton 2nd Corey Kluber 4th
    5th Jose Bautista 7th Adam Wainwright 5th(t)

    2014 was the first season in which voters actually had PAR numbers to reference if they were so inclined. Not surprisingly, the PAR numbers back up the voters, especially for Cy Young. Victor Martinez finished 3rd in the MVP vote despite finishing 6th in PAR, but this is mainly due to his position value. But that’s a whole different topic for another time. It appears Jose Altuve was slightly undervalued by voters, at least if PAR is to be trusted, since he was just barely behind Trout in PAR.

    2013

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Miguel Cabrera 1st Clayton Kershaw 1st
    2nd Chris Davis 2nd Max Scherzer 2nd
    3rd Mike Trout 4th Adam Wainwright 4th
    4th Paul Goldschmidt 3rd Yu Darvish 3rd
    5th Adam Jones 5th Cliff Lee 6th

    The ’12-’13 seasons featured hotly contested debates on Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout for AL MVP. It was a little more clear cut in this league though, at least in ’13, with Cabrera having the superior fantasy stats. It’s also interesting to see how close Kershaw and Scherzer were to each other in both PAR and the Cy Young vote. The result was the same in each, with a slight edge to Kershaw. A little sad to see those 4th and 5th place names on the pitching side in light of their current arm injuries.

    2012

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Mike Trout 2nd Justin Verlander 2nd
    2nd Ryan Braun 3rd David Price 1st
    3rd Miguel Cabrera 1st Clayton Kershaw 3rd
    4th Josh Hamilton 4th Gio Gonzalez 4th
    5th Andrew McCutchen 5th Matt Cain 6th(t)

    Now this is where things get interesting. PAR disagrees with both the MVP and Cy Young selections from ’12. I wouldn’t classify either as egregious errors by the voters though. Cabrera and Price both helped lead the Naturals to the championship that season, so they probably earned a slight edge over Trout, Braun and Verlander in the minds of some for that reason alone. Also, the PAR differences were minimal anyway. Having said that, Trout’s 10.8 PAR is the highest single season number we’ve seen for a batter in the five years I’ve calculated so far, yet he didn’t win the MVP. I should note that Craig Kimbrel finished 5th in the Cy Young vote in both ’12 and ’13, but relief pitchers have almost no chance of finishing near the leaders in pitching PAR. Make of that what you wish.

    2011

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Matt Kemp 1st Justin Verlander 1st
    2nd Jacoby Ellsbury 3rd Clayton Kershaw 2nd
    3rd Ryan Braun 2nd Roy Halladay 3rd
    4th Curtis Granderson 4th Cliff Lee 4th
    5th Jose Bautista 6th Jered Weaver 5th

    This is another season where the PAR rankings closely match the award voting results. Remember when Matt Kemp was the best player in baseball? It was only four years ago! Meanwhile, Verlander was a unanimous Cy Young selection in ’11 and also accumulated the highest PAR I have calculated to date (16.3), barely edging out Kershaw’s ’14 campaign.

    2010

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Carlos Gonzalez 2nd Roy Halladay 1st
    2nd Albert Pujols 1st Adam Wainwright 2nd
    3rd Joey Votto 4th Felix Hernandez 3rd
    4th Miguel Cabrera 3rd Ubaldo Jimenez 5th
    5th Carl Crawford 7th C.C. Sabathia 4th

    Finally, 2010 saw Pujols edge out CarGo for the MVP award despite finishing slightly behind him in PAR. But that was an extremely tight MVP vote as well with Pujols winning despite only receiving three first place votes. Less than a point separated the two in PAR. On the pitching side, the two lists were nearly identical.

    To me, all of the above points out that PAR is a pretty good representation of the value most league members have placed on players in recent years and helps indicate that no player has been clearly snubbed from a post-season award either.  I hope to do more analysis like this as I continue to compute PAR values from previous seasons.

    With the draft starting this week, you may be contemplating whether or not you are going to consider PAR when making your selections.  Let me offer a little unsolicited advice and provide some guidance for you if you are going to go that route.  If you are already using a set of stat projections to assist you with your drafting process, it may be worthwhile to calculate a player’s projected PAR too.  This could be particularly useful if you are debating between two players with completely different skill sets.  However, you should also consider position scarcity and not necessarily draft the player capable of posting the highest PAR.  2014 PAR calculations for all draft eligible players can be found on the “Free Agents” page.  But I want to give you a huge heads up that these numbers are close to meaningless for players who were not active for the full season last year.  The PAR calculation assumes they played the full season, which is probably not the case for a majority of the players.  Same goes for the PAR numbers you see on the individual team pages right now.

    In case you are interested in calculating 2015 projected PAR for players, I have pasted the formulas below for both batters and pitchers.  These are the numbers that were used to compute the ’14 PAR totals and will be used during this season as well.  The only difference is these formulas are assuming full season stats.  So if your projected numbers aren’t full season, the PAR is probably going to be a little low.  Anyway, you can plug this formula into Excel, and replace the stat names with the projected values you wish to use.

    Batting PAR:

    =((((H+1775)/(AB+6912))-0.2567)/0.0028) + ((HR-15.05)/9.67) + ((RBI-63.25)/24.48) + ((R-65.19)/24.34) + ((SB-7.68)/9.48)

    Pitching PAR:

    =((((ER+495.13)*9/(IP+1140.0))-3.909)/-0.095) + ((((BB+H+1469.73)/(IP+1140.0))-1.2893)/-0.0174) + ((W-7.57)/2.75) + ((SV-5.56)/9.57) + ((K-114.47)/31.91)

    Of course, these formulas aren’t very useful without numbers to plug into them.  I’m not going to recommend any particular projection set though because I think it is best to leave that up to you to decide.  It wouldn’t be much fun if we were all reading from the same sheet of music.  However, I will recommend checking out FanGraphs, where they have several sets of 2015 stat projections available.

    Happy drafting!

  • Trout Finally Gets MVP Nod


    2014 was probably the worst year of Mike Trout’s three year DTBL career. His batting average dipped below .300 for the first time and he stole fewer than half as many bases as he had in each of his first two seasons. That’s not to suggest this wasn’t a great season for the Mavericks’ young phenom. He was still an elite player in every sense of the word. But I think I can safely say he is the first player to ever win his first MVP award in the worst season of his career to date (not counting rookies). It definitely hasn’t happened in this league. Mike Trout is the 2014 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Trout remains baseball’s best total package. His combination of hitting for average and power, base running, speed and fielding ability is unmatched. But prior to this year, he had been unable to grab the MVP award in the DTBL or the American League, mostly because of a guy named Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera understandably won the MVP award in this league the previous two years because Trout’s main prowess over him, his defensive ability, plays no role in fantasy baseball. But Cabrera didn’t have quite the same success at the plate this year, leaving the door open for Trout and others.

    Trout led the DTBL in batting PAR (7.91) and runs scored (115). His 36 home runs and 111 RBI were career highs and ranked third and second respectively in the league this year. It was batting average (.287) and stolen bases (16) where he took a bit of a step backwards from previous seasons, but even those numbers are well above league average. He was easily the Mavericks best offensive player again this year, leading them in AVG, HR, RBI and R. He was largely responsible for keeping the Mavericks offense among the best in the league on their way to a slightly disappointing third place finish. Yet the Mavericks can now claim the league’s best hitter and pitcher for 2014 with Trout joining Clayton Kershaw as award winners.

    Ever since the Mavericks selected Trout with their second round pick in 2012, he has proven to be one of the biggest steals in DTBL Draft history. In his brief career, he has put up gaudy numbers: .313 with 93 home runs, 97 stolen bases, 291 runs batted in and 352 runs scored in just three seasons. He has now finished in the top four of the MVP vote in each of his seasons. And this is the second award he has won, along with the unanimous selection as Rookie of the Year in 2012. He is also only 23 years old, so it would be very surprising if he wasn’t in the running for this award many, many times down the road. He and Kershaw figure to keep the Mavericks in the title hunt pretty much every year for the foreseeable future.

    It wasn’t quite a unanimous selection of Trout for MVP. He received nine of ten first place votes for a total of 97 points. Since I leave it up to each of you as to whether or not you wish to have your votes made public, I’m not going to say who didn’t have Trout #1, except I’ll give you a pretty big hint by saying it’s probably the last person you would have guessed. Although Trout wasn’t unanimous, his margin of victory was quite large. The next four closest competitors were more than 60 points behind, but within six points of each other. The Jackalope’s suddenly filthy-rich Giancarlo Stanton came in second place with 35 points despite only receiving one second place vote. The Naturals’ Victor Martinez received the lone first place vote that didn’t go to Trout, perhaps due to his value over every other catcher in the league. V-Mart was left off three ballots and finished with 34 points. The player who finished just behind Trout in batting PAR, Demigods second baseman Jose Altuve, only received a pair of second place votes and was left off four ballots, causing him to finish fourth with 32 points. Finally, the Cougars break-out star, outfielder Michael Brantley, rounded out the top five with 29 points, also receiving a pair of second place votes. Besides Trout, the voting was really all over the place. Even one player who didn’t finish in the top five, Miguel Cabrera, received a second place vote. Trout was the only player who appeared on all ten ballots.

    Click here to see the full Most Valuable Player award voting results.

    Usually, this MVP article is my last article of the year. But that’s not the plan this year. I’m going to start working on updating PAR numbers for previous seasons and will probably write about some of my findings along the way, particularly if I see the need to adjust my formulas. I would also like to chronicle the league PAR totals for each year and maybe take a look at how well the MVP and Cy Young voting meshed with the PAR results in past years. In addition to that, I also have other site enhancements planned for this winter. So be sure to check back on occasion. But until next time, have a great winter!

  • Kershaw Wins Cy Young Again


    2014 was the best year for pitchers in the DTBL’s 22 season history. The total league ERA of 3.31 was the lowest mark ever, easily besting the 3.39 combined ERA of 2011. So there was no shortage of great pitching in the league. Yet one player easily stood out among the rest. Despite hitting the disabled list following his first outing of the year, Clayton Kershaw returned as good as new and simply dominated for the next five months. Following a 2013 season in which Kershaw narrowly won the Cy Young award over Max Scherzer, he left no doubt who the winner would be this year. Mavericks ace Clayton Kershaw is the unanimous selection for the 2014 DTBL Cy Young award.

    This one really was a no-brainer.  Kershaw had one of the best seasons in league history.  He easily led the league in ERA and WHIP and also led the way with 20 wins.  His 1.77 ERA was the fourth lowest mark ever in the DTBL, even beating his minuscule 1.83 ERA from last year.  His 0.857 WHIP was the third best ever.  Only two DTBL pitchers have put up lower ERA and WHIP numbers in a single season:  Greg Maddux in 1995 and Pedro Martinez in 2000, which happen to be the first two players/years mentioned whenever people discuss the best pitcher seasons of the past quarter century.  More on Kershaw’s place in history with Maddux and Martinez in just a bit.  His early season injury prevented him from having a realistic shot at leading the league in all four starting pitcher categories, but his 239 strikeouts put him on the league leaderboard as well.

    This was Kershaw’s best season to date.  And that is saying something considering he has been nothing short of remarkable almost since the day he was drafted by the Mavericks in the sixth round in 2009.  Since his second season, he has never had an ERA over 3.00 or a WHIP over 1.200, numbers that would be a career bests for most pitchers.  Still only 26 years old, he already has 89 career wins with a 2.35 ERA, 1.018 WHIP and 1,296 strikeouts.  He easily holds the DTBL career records in ERA and WHIP among starting pitchers.  The Mavericks pitching staff wasn’t nearly as dominant as it was a year ago, but Kershaw obviously wasn’t to blame.  He was their best pitcher, as he has been pretty much throughout the entirety of his career.

    The scary thing is, Kershaw seems to keep getting better.  He has now finished in the top three of the Cy Young vote four years in a row.  But the last two years have been truly remarkable.  He joins Maddux and Martinez as clear cut leaders in terms of best back-to-back seasons for pitchers in the DTBL.  Maddux’s 1994 and 1995 seasons featured the two lowest ERAs ever.  Martinez wasn’t far off with his 1999 and 2000 campaigns.  And now Kershaw in 2013 and 2014.  It is too early to judge Kershaw’s ultimate place in history.  But it won’t be long before the conversation about pitching greats begins with those three…. and then moves on to everybody else.

    As mentioned, Kershaw was a unanimous selection for the Cy Young award.  It wasn’t due to a lack of solid competition though.  The Demigods’ Johnny Cueto rode a career year to a distant second place finish with 56 points, receiving half of the second place votes.  Jackalope ace Felix Hernandez received the other half of those second place votes and finished just one point behind Cueto.  The difference wound up being that Hernandez did not appear on one of the ballots.  Yesterday’s Rookie of the Year winner, Demigods’ Corey Kluber came in fourth place with 17 points.  It is interesting that Hernandez beat Kluber so easily after Kluber nabbed the AL Cy Young from King Felix.  But keep in mind that Kluber was in the minors for the Demigods for a few weeks in April.  There was a three way tie for fifth place, including the champion Naturals’ ace David Price and a pair of Cougars hurlers:  Adam Wainwright and post-season hero Madison Bumgarner.  All three received ten points.

    Click here to view the full Cy Young voting results.

    The big one will have to wait until next week.  I intend to announce the MVP winner on Monday evening.  Kershaw probably would have been a leading candidate for that one too, except we reserve that award for hitters in this league.  So who will it be?  Check back on Monday to find out!

  • Kluber Nabs Rookie of the Year


    Just a couple hours after winning the AL Cy Young award in a bit of an upset, Corey Kluber has his name attached to another honor.  The first year DTBL pitcher was, hands-down, the steal of this year’s draft.  Picked in the tenth round to provide some depth to a very strong Demigods rotation, Kluber wound up playing a leading role for a staff that put up some of the best numbers in league history.  His performance propelled him to the top of a very deep rookie class.  Corey Kluber is the 2014 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    On a team with Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister and first round draft pick Jose Fernandez, Kluber had to wait his turn to become a fixture in the Demigods’ rotation.  He spent most of April in a minor league slot.  But after being activated in late April, he never looked back.  Despite not having the opportunity to put up a full season of stats, his numbers were still quite impressive.  He won 16 games with a 2.40 ERA, 1.089 WHIP and 241 strikeouts for the Demigods.  On most teams, those stats would have made him the obvious staff ace.  But he was slightly bested by Cueto in all four categories.  However, he easily led all DTBL rookies in wins, ERA and strikeouts and was second in WHIP.  His 11.5 pitching PAR was best among rookies as well and fourth among all pitchers.  His brief stint in the minors will probably keep him from being a serious contender for the DTBL Cy Young award, but he should receive plenty of consideration there as well.  Not bad for a tenth round pick.

    The Demigods seemed to have their rotation set well before Kluber was drafted.  Jose Fernandez was chosen with the third pick in the draft and was supposed to be the final piece in their loaded rotation.  But once Fernandez succumbed to Tommy John surgery in May, Kluber’s presence became absolutely essential.  Even without the young phenom Fernandez, the Demigods put together one of the best pitching seasons in league history.  Unfortunately for them, it wasn’t quite enough to beat out the Naturals for their first league title.  But Kluber played a key role in their best season ever and now appears to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward as well.

    As mentioned, this was a pretty strong rookie class overall, especially among later round picks.  There were actually quite a few first round busts, at least for the 2014 season.  But some of the guys picked much later picked up the slack.  The Rookie of the Year voting was competitive, but Kluber won by a fairly comfortable margin.  He received seven first place and three second place votes for a total of 91 points.  His main competition for this award wound up being another draft steal, Naturals second baseman Anthony Rendon.  Rendon was a sixth round pick and rewarded the Naturals with a rookie leading 5.2 batting PAR.  He received the other three first place votes and was the only player besides Kluber to appear on all ten ballots.  He accumulated 75 points in finishing second.  In third place was Moonshiners third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Considered the favorite for this award through much of the season, Donaldson was clearly the most productive of this year’s first round picks.  He received 34 points.  Finishing fourth was the only other rookie pitcher who came anywhere near Kluber’s numbers, Darkhorses pitcher Julio Teheran, who received 30 points.  There was a sizable gap between those four and the rest of the pack.  But rounding out the top five were a pair of Athletics pitchers who tied for that spot with 10 points.  Jackalope youngster Sonny Gray and Kings closer Sean Doolittle were key contributors to their respective squads.

    Click here to view the full Rookie of the Year voting results.

    My plan is to announce the Cy Young award winner tomorrow (Thursday) evening with the MVP announcement coming early next week.  So be sure to check back soon for those results.

  • The Forgettable Five


    With two teams breaking point records at the top of the standings, one could assume that records in futility may have been in danger as well. That wasn’t exactly the case for any one team in the 2014 DTBL season, but collectively, five teams did manage to make some history. It was a season to forget for the Kings, Moonshiners, Darkhorses, Gators and Cougars.

    Those five teams were essentially out of the race before the All-Star break. The only real question was which bottom half position would each team wind up in. These five were separated by just a handful of points almost the entire season and frequently shuffled standings places. In the end, none came close to breaking any low water mark records. All five finished with point totals between 32 and 43. But the distance they were behind the champion Naturals is where records were broken.

    It is common for one or two teams to finish miles behind the champions. But five teams is unheard of. The sixth place Kings finished an astonishing 46 points behind the Naturals. In the league’s history, never have more than three teams finished that far out of first place. And the only times when three teams did it (1998 and 2000) were expansion years where two of the bottom three were expansion teams and the third bottom-feeder was a team that folded following that season. To have five teams finish so far out of the hunt this year is really quite amazing.

    The biggest disappointment of the bottom five has to be the Kings. They just barely avoided the worst finish ever for a defending champion, coming in one spot higher than the 2011 Darkhorses. However, a sixth place finish for a team that was considered a favorite coming into the year is pretty embarrassing, particularly when you look at just how far they were from being a contender. It was sort of a Murphy’s Law season for the Kings with everything imaginable going wrong. They were absolutely decimated by injuries, particularly early in the year. At one point in May, literally half of the players who were on their Opening Day roster were either on the disabled list or nursing some sort of injury. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Even the healthy players failed to meet the most modest of expectations. In one year, the Kings have fallen from a juggernaut squad with hopes of establishing a new dynasty to a team full of washed up players with a seemingly bleak future. Not one Kings player figures to receive strong consideration for the post-season awards. Only Max Scherzer, Ian Desmond, Jonathen LuCroy and a couple relief pitchers could be considered bright spots.

    Expectations weren’t as high for the Moonshiners, but 2014 will still go down as a disappointing season for them too. Their problem entering the season appeared to be a lack of superstar players who could carry the squad in multiple categories. That remains their main weakness today. No Moonshiners appeared in the top ten in batting or pitching PAR. The early season loss of Prince Fielder was a dagger and David Wright was a disappointment all year. Two of their better offensive players were a pair of rookies: Josh Donaldson and Brian Dozier. Donaldson was a pleasant surprise out of a first round draft class which included a whole bunch of busts. Jared Weaver led the pitching staff with 18 wins, but didn’t get much help from anyone else in the rotation. Next year, they will try once again to acquire top level players to push them back into contender status.

    The Darkhorses offense was respectable, but their pitching staff really let them down, leading to an eighth place finish. Veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury were joined by younger players like Todd Frazier and Christian Yelich to form a pretty decent offense. But they are still waiting to get a full, healthy, superstar season out of Bryce Harper. And this year’s first round pick, Xander Bogaerts was a huge disappointment this year. They did strike gold with their second round pick though. Julio Teheran was their best pitcher this season. James Shields and Lance Lynn were solid too. The rest of the starters were not and the bullpen finished dead last in saves. Since completing their four-peat in 2010, the Darkhorses have now finished in the bottom half of the standings four years in a row. But they probably have a better stable of young players than any of the other four teams covered in this article. Also worth noting, the Demigods finished in this eighth place slot just a year ago. Perhaps next year the Darkhorses will make a similar leap.

    The Gators have this ninth place thing figured out. For the fourth consecutive year, they finished in that same dreaded spot.  Part of their problem was a very disappointing DTBL rookie campaign for second overall draft choice Wil Myers who struggled through an injury plagued and ineffective season.  Also, losing their longtime ace C.C. Sabathia for most of the season was a huge blow considering how heavily they have relied on him to carry their pitching staff in the past.  On a more positive note, Nelson Cruz bounced back from his PED suspension in a big way, leading the league with 40 home runs.  Scott Kazmir and Alex Wood were shrewd mid/late round draft picks who were solid, but unable to completely fill the void left by Sabathia.  The bullpen was once again a team strength, although it took a bit of a blow towards the end of the season when Rafael Soriano and even Koji Uehara lost their closer roles.  One of these years, the Gators will put it together and avoid another ninth place finish.  Maybe next year.

    This was an extremely disappointing season for the Cougars coming off a very solid fifth place finish in 2013.  Their last place finish was very surprising, especially for a team with such a solid pitching staff.  The offense was not solid though.  In fact, it couldn’t have been much worse.  They finished dead last in all five offensive categories, earning the minimum five batting points.  They are the second team in league history to earn the minimum batting points, joining the 1997 Tidal Wave.  The strange thing is that they actually had one of the best offensive players in the league as Michael Brantley burst into superstar status with his .327, 20 HR, 23 SB season.  Alexei Ramirez and Denard Span were decent.  The rest of their hitters really struggled, led by last year’s team MVP Chris Davis.  Davis hit an awful .193 before having his season popped short due to a drug suspension.  The pitching staff was actually quite good though.  Adam Wainwright won 20 games and was among the league leaders in ERA (2.38) and WHIP (1.03) too.  Madison Bumgarner, before cementing his legacy as a post-season hero, had another great regular season as well.  The bullpen was pretty good too.  Even a slight improvement to the offense next year to complment this very talented pitching staff should make this last place finish a distant memory a year from now.

    We are well into awards season now with MLB announcing winners of some of the lesser awards this week.  The big ones will come next week.  So we better get our own award voting done soon too.  The awards ballot is now available on the main page.  Please take some time this weekend to complete your ballot.  I will begin announcing the winners next week.

  • Demigods Fall Just Short

    The DTBL expanded to ten teams in 1998, making 2014 the 17th season with 550 total points distributed among the 10 teams. In those 17 seasons, only three teams have managed to accumulate more than 86 points. So it would stand to reason that those three teams were almost certainly all league champions. That is not the case. The 2014 Demigods finished with the third most points in league history with 86.5, and yet found themselves 2 1/2 points behind the league champion Naturals. It was a painful final result for a franchise who easily had their best season ever, but fell a little short of their first league championship.

    Before I go any further, I think it is important to point out that a team’s point total in any given season doesn’t paint the complete picture of how strong that team actually was. Since the total number of league-wide points is the same every year, team totals often say as much about the rest of the league as the team itself. This year, the Naturals and Demigods clearly benefited from being the only two particularly strong teams in the league. There were three other mediocre squads and five teams that were pretty terrible. While a decent case could be made for the Naturals and Demigods as two of the all time great teams, it is also worth mentioning that they didn’t have a lot of competition. But enough raining on the Naturals and Demigods parade. This second season recap article will focus on the Demigods and the three other teams who didn’t win the title, but didn’t completely tank either (Mavericks, Choppers, Jackalope).

    The Demigods were definitely a sleeper to make a run at the title this year due to a revamped pitching staff and a solid roster, top to bottom. They did not disappoint in that respect. They made the incredible leap from the league’s worst pitching staff in 2013 (in terms of pitching points earned) to the best in 2014. They led the league in ERA, wins and strikeouts, finished second in WHIP and fifth in saves, earning a spot among the best pitching staffs this league has ever seen. The Demigods broke the single season strikeout record, passing the ’07 Mavericks by 41 whiffs. Their 2.70 ERA is only bested by last year’s Mavericks. And their 1.118 WHIP was the third lowest mark ever behind the ’13 Mavericks and this year’s Naturals. They did all of that despite losing the guy who was supposed to be the staff ace, Jose Fernandez, to Tommy John surgery in early May. Johnny Cueto had the kind of season that would make anyone not named Clayton Kershaw jealous, with 20 wins, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 242 strikeouts, all among the league leaders. Tenth round pick Corey Kluber turned out to be the steal of the draft and a strong Rookie of the Year candidate (16 W, 2.40 ERA, 241 K’s). Yu Darvish fought through injuries, but still had a pretty good year. Cole Hamels and Doug Fister were their usual solid selves. That’s six starting pitchers who you would think would be sure keepers heading into next year, opening up some interesting possibilities for this team moving forward.

    The offense wasn’t quite as strong for the Demigods, but still ranked second in the league with 41.5 points. Jose Altuve was the breakout star of the year and a strong MVP candidate. He led the league in batting average (.341) and steals (56). Carlos Gomez was the other offensive star, with his second straight 20/30 season (23 HR, 32 SB). It was a mildly disappointing season for some of their other stars which may have ultimately cost them the title, particularly Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer. But this team really does have all the pieces in place to be a contender again next year.

    Although the Demigods were the only team who gave the Naturals a real run for their money, three other teams can look back at 2014 as something other than a complete failure. The Mavericks fell well short of their lofty expectations, but 69.5 points would have put them in the title race most years. The Choppers never were able to make a serious run at the top of the standings, but did have their second straight solid year while finishing fourth. Finally, the Jackalope bounced back from a horrific last place finish in 2013 to return to the top half of the standings this year.

    The Mavericks have been one of the league’s best teams for quite some time, but it has now been eight years since their last championship. Expectations were extremely high entering this year, despite knowing they would have to go at it without Matt Harvey. So a distant third place finish is slightly disappointing. However, they are very well positioned to make a more serious run next year. As for 2014, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones helped lead an offense that actually outperformed their ’13 unit. It was pitching where they took a big step back from their record setting numbers a year ago. Of course, Clayton Kershaw was not to blame in any way, shape or form. He once again compiled one of the best pitching seasons in league history, leading the league in ERA (1.77), WHIP (0.857) and wins (21) despite missing about a month due to injury. His ERA and WHIP ranked as the fourth and third best DTBL single season marks, respectively. Stephen Strasburg had a solid year, but the rest of the rotation was a bit of a disappointment. It will be interesting to see if they are able to bounce back to ’13 form with the return of Harvey next year. They have a large stable of interesting young players along with extra early draft picks in 2015.

    The Choppers put together their second solid season in a row, but may have been slightly disappointed in being unable to mount a serious charge for the title down the stretch. In the end, they just didn’t get enough out of their second tier of players to match up with the Naturals and Demigods. The offense was led by Jose Bautista, who had his best season since 2011. He joined Trout as the only two players to record 35/100/100 seasons (35 HR, 103 RBI, 101 R), leading the Choppers in all three categories. Anthony Rizzo had a breakout season as well, recording 32 homers. A few other players had solid years too, like Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth and Alex Gordon. But in the end, it wasn’t quite enough. The lack of standouts was even more pronounced on the pitching mound. Chris Sale, Jon Lester and Craig Kimbrel were outstanding. Outside of those three though, they lacked the pitching depth of the three teams who finished ahead of them. On the whole though, this was a good year for the Choppers. They easily soared past the pre-season projection of eighth place. With two solid finishes in a row, the Choppers have pushed their lean years well behind them.

    It was a weird season for the Jackalope. After last year’s disaster, things almost certainly had to improve for this team that was a serious title contender just two years ago. So a jump from tenth to fifth was a huge step in the right direction. However, it ended on a sour note with several of their stars suffering season ending injuries. The second half losses of Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton sank any hopes of finishing the season on a strong note. But prior to that injury, what a season it was for Stanton. He elevated himself into the conversation of best players in baseball. His 37 home runs were second most in the league. Albert Pujols had a nice bounce-back season. Hunter Pence and Evan Gattis made solid contributions as well. It was an up and down season for first overall draft pick, Yasiel Puig. But he helps bolster a squad with a ton of upside moving forward. The Jackalope have almost always been built around pitching. But the core that led them to the 2011 title has started to dissipate, with one notable exception: Felix Hernandez. King Felix had a 2.14 ERA and 0.915 WHIP, which trailed only Kershaw. His 248 strikeouts were the third most in the league. He will certainly garner Cy Young consideration. Sonny Gray and Jeff Samardzija solidified their spots in the Jackalope’s revamped rotation. Aroldis Chapman put up ridiculous numbers out of the bullpen, despite not pitching until May after a scary spring training injury. He struck out 103 in just 53 innings, while saving 35 games too.

    Although they were not particularly close to winning the championship this season, it won’t take major overhauls for the Mavericks, Choppers and Jackalope to be contenders in 2015. Mostly, they just need the Naturals and Demigods not to set a record-breaking pace again next year. These teams are all in very good shape. The same can’t be said for all of the five teams who finished miles behind the leaders. We’ll examine those bottom five in the third and final season recap article, coming soon!

    Last week, I updated all of the 2014 PAR numbers for every player who appeared on a DTBL roster this season. As you may recall from my PAR introduction, these values are calculated using five years worth of historical data. Prior to this latest update, the historical data came from the 2009-2013 seasons, just like the 2013 PAR values you currently see on players’ pages. But now that the season is over, I was able to swap out the oldest season (2009) with this year’s numbers. This helps keep PAR more relevant to today’s stats. For the most part, this adjustment caused hitters PAR to go up and pitchers PAR to go down. This makes sense because the “replacement level” offensive numbers all went down when replacing the 2009 stats with the much weaker offensive numbers of 2014. And the opposite for pitchers. On the whole, batters still earned fewer than the expected league-wide batting PAR of 225. But I expected this because 2014 was the worst offensive season in league history. Once I’m able to calculate the historical PAR values all the way back to the league’s origin, the numbers should even out a bit. If I find this not to be the case, I’ll take another look at my formulas. Anyway, expect past season PAR updates to occur sporadically over the winter. I hope to write about the numbers from each season as I release them to the site.

    Enjoy the rest of the World Series!