With nine days remaining in the 2014 baseball season, the DTBL race looks almost exactly like it has most of the season. The Naturals continue to dominate and appear primed to win their third title in five years, earning a clear place as the league’s best franchise through the first half of this decade. But not so fast, my friends! The Demigods are having a pretty amazing season as well and still have a very realistic shot at closing the five point gap, even though time is not on their side.
I’ll save most of the superlatives about the 2014 Naturals and Demigods for the eventual post-season articles. But here’s something to chew on in the meantime. The league record for total points belongs to the 2007 Darkhorses with 87. The Naturals currently have 89 1/2 points. This year’s runner-up is a lock to become just the second team to finish with at least 80 points and not win a title. The Demigods sit with 84 1/2 points right now. There is a very good chance both teams will finish in the top five all-time in total points. Yet one of them won’t have a championship to show for it (unless the Naturals find themselves in another championship tie).
In many ways, this Naturals team doesn’t really look like one of the all-time greats. While they are loaded with talent, they’ve had to do it with less than what may have been expected from some of their stars. Late season injuries to several of those stars made it appear their title ride could be derailed, particularly since they haven’t had any free agent signings available for more than a month now. They have actually been playing a man down for quite some time with no healthy shortstop available. But the depth of talent is really shining through. They currently hold 49 batting points, just a single point away from a clean sweep of the offensive categories. Again, they are doing this without a full/healthy major league roster.
As has been the case most of the second half, the Demigods are the only team within an arms reach of the Naturals. The Demigods have had a great season themselves and would be in great shape to win the league almost any other year. Seeking their first DTBL title, they actually overtook the Naturals for a few days last month. The league’s best pitching staff has kept them in the race, despite losing their first round draft pick, Jose Fernandez, in May and a late season injury to their other top pitcher, Yu Darvish. The Demigods are the only team in the league in the top half of all ten categories. But will this balance be enough? They have a lot of work to do in these last nine days.
Five points may seem like an insurmountable lead with barely more than a week left, particularly since the Naturals haven’t given any ground in weeks. It is hard to put odds out on the race, but it would be fair to say the Naturals are huge favorites at this point. But there is still a very realistic path to the championship for the Demigods. Let’s outline just how that might happen. First of all, the Naturals are a mortal lock if they remain at their current point total. They will need to lose a couple points for the Demigods to have any chance. They are vulnerable in a few offensive categories in particular: home runs, RBIs and stolen bases. RBIs is particularly worth watching with the Demigods just 2 behind the Naturals for the top spot. A two point swing seems quite possible there. In the pitching categories, I would say the Naturals are actually better positioned to gain points than to lose them. So that makes a Naturals fall in those three offensive categories absolutely vital to the Demigods.
On the other side, the Demigods have an opportunity to pick up points in a couple places. In addition to RBIs, they also have an outside shot at a two point swing in WHIP where they trail only the Naturals. Although that lead may appear vulnerable, it’s going to take an especially poor week for the Naturals pitchers for the lead in that category to change hands. The Naturals have actually increased their lead in WHIP in recent days. But it is still worth watching. Finally, the Demigods also have a shot at picking up points in stolen bases and home runs. In summary, the best chance at closing the five point gap appears to be two point swings in RBIs and WHIP combined with Naturals points dropped and/or Demigods points gained in home runs and stolen bases.
Meanwhile, the other eight teams are pretty much just playing out the string. I don’t think any of them are particularly satisfied with their results this year, so it’s all about pride at this point. One other thing to keep an eye on down the stretch is the position of the Kings. They currently sit in a tie for seventh place, which would equal the worst finish ever for a defending champion. Will they suffer the fate of becoming the worst defending champion of all time? There is also a tight race between the Gators and Cougars to avoid finishing in last place, a race that included the Darkhorses, Kings and Moonshiners through much of the season as well.
Enjoy the stretch run and good luck to the Naturals and Demigods!