Archive for the ‘Darkhorses’ Category

Darkhorses Dash To Title

Tuesday, September 29th, 2020

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2020 was supposed to be the year of chaos and unpredictability in baseball and this league.  To some degree, the former was true with multiple MLB teams missing week’s worth of games due to COVID-19 positive tests and having September schedules filled with 7-inning double headers.  Season ending injuries and opt-outs were more prevalent than ever.  But unpredictability?  Nah, not in this league.  Our pre-season projections saw the Jackalope and Darkhorses as the clear favorites to win the title in an abbreviated 60-game season.  While other teams made some noise at times, ultimately it came down to those two teams in the season’s final days.  In the end, it was the Darkhorses exorcising recent demons of close second place finishes.  For the fifth time in franchise history and the first time in exactly a decade, David’s Darkhorses are the Dream Team Baseball League Champions.

As I wrote about in the mid-season article, one thing I was most definitely not expecting in 2020 was for one team to have a stranglehold on first place.  However, amazingly, the Darkhorses never fell below second place at any point of the season after the Opening Weekend.  And they were in first place following all but two days of the final five weeks.  But it did get a little scary for them as one of the days in which the Jackalope overtook them for the top spot was on the final weekend, with just two days remaining.  With extremely thin margins in almost all categories, the consistent excellence from the Darkhorses was truly remarkable.

The Darkhorses are a deep team with very few, if any, obvious weaknesses.  This type of roster is going to be a contender in almost any type of season.  But perhaps they were uniquely built for this particular season even more than one might have realized.  While they did not suffer the same injury and opt-out carnage of some other squads, their depth was certainly challenged.  James Paxton missed most of the season with an arm injury.  Lorenzo Cain opted out after the first week.  Matt Chapman hit the injured list in early September.  Alex Bregman had an injury riddled campaign as well.  What is really impressive is how they were able to overcome very little production from some of the guys who had been their most important players in recent years, most notably reigning MVP Christian Yelich who scuffled to the tune of a .205 average.

So who picked up the slack?  A whole bunch of guys.  The Darkhorses easily led the league in batting points for the third straight year.  Despite that, they did not have any player finish in the top 15 in Batting PAR.  It was a total team effort.  Bryce Harper led the way with 2.7 PAR, so yes, he finally gets his ring.  Dansby Swanson had the best season of his career so far.  Brandon Lowe may have been the steal of this year’s draft.  The third round pick should receive Rookie of the Year consideration.  Xander Bogaerts and J.T. Realmuto were their usual steady selves.  Mike Yastrzemski was a great early season free agent signing.  Despite the lack of any apparent MVP candidates, the Darkhorses unquestionably had the best offensive depth in the league, with positive contributions from all 14 batting spots.

The Darkhorses have had a great offense for quite some time now.  What had previously held them back a bit was their pitching staff.  Technically, they only improved by 1/2 pitching point from last year.  But relative to the rest of the league, that was enough to get the job done.  They tied for the fourth most pitching points.  As usual, Jacob deGrom carried the rotation.  Maybe even more so than usual, actually.  He was their only starting pitcher to earn more than 1.0 PAR (4.5).  Last year’s second choice starter Patrick Corbin was actually quite disappointing this year.  Jose Berrios was the only other starter besides deGrom who lived up to expectations.  This wasn’t really a championship caliber starting staff.  But boy did the bullpen make up for that.  Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Taylor Rogers and Mark Melancon made up what was by far the best bullpen in the league.  Hendriks and Hand were the Darkhorses next two most valuable pitchers after deGrom, and were first and second in the league in PAR among relievers.  Hand led the league in saves with 16.  Hendriks was second with 14.  The Darkhorses absolutely blew away the rest of the league in saves.  They had 48 of them.  The margin between them and the second best Moonshiners (23) was almost as large as the Moonshiners save total (25).  So yes, the Darkhorses had nearly twice as many saves as another other team.  These four relievers were paramount to the Darkhorses success in the other pitching categories as well.

This season culminates an impressive three year run for the Darkhorses in which they finished in the top two spots in the standings.  The last time a team had a similar run of excellence was the Naturals in 2010-12.  This is the Darkhorses first championship since 2010, which was the year they actually shared the title with the Naturals, and was the final season of the Darkhorses’ four-peat.  Their five titles is second only to the Kings.  If you were to split the DTBL history in half, the Darkhorses would probably earn the distinction of the league’s best franchise in the second half having won five of those 14 championships.

This has been a trying year for all of us.  But I am extremely grateful that MLB was able to successfully complete this season, and thus so were we.  Let’s hope we are able to return to some semblance of normalcy by the time the 2021 baseball season begins.  In the meantime, I intend to enjoy the Postseason, which will get started in a matter of hours.  Congrats to David on a well-deserved championship!  Thanks to everybody else for making this a very enjoyable and competitive season.

2020 Season Preview: Part IV

Thursday, July 23rd, 2020

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It’s Opening Day!  Nearly four months after the originally scheduled start of the 2020 season, we will finally be able to watch live baseball games that count, starting with the World Series Champion Nationals hosting Gerrit Cole and the Yankees.  While I’m disappointed I won’t be able to attend that game, I couldn’t be more excited to have baseball back.  Nobody knows what to expect out of this 60-game mad dash to October.  But I intend to enjoy every minute of it.  Or at least until the White Sox first excruciating loss.

This final 2020 DTBL preview article will cover the two teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the standings.  While I didn’t do extensive research to verify this, I believe these are the two teams that in recent years the annual projections tend to get the most wrong.  But in opposite directions.  The past two seasons, the Darkhorses were projected to finish in sixth and seventh places.  They actually finished in second both years.  Meanwhile, the Jackalope were picked to finish fourth and tied for first in ’18 and ’19, while ending up in tenth and seventh places those seasons.  So is it a good or bad sign for these teams to top the projections this year?  Time will tell.  The talent on both rosters should give them a leg up on most of the competition though.  Here are the teams projected to finish at the top of the standings.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 7th (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (7th)
  • Wins – 5th (4th)
  • Saves – 2nd (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd-T (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Points - 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

This is the 10 year anniversary of the last of the Darkhorses 4-peat championships.  While the franchise fell off a bit at the beginning of last decade, they have been a consistent title contender in recent years.  Last year, they had the best offense in the league, by a wide margin.  But a middle of the pack pitching staff prevented them from being able to keep up with the Kings.  Interestingly, these projections show their hitters taking a step back, but major improvement from the pitchers.  That league best offense from ’19 remains almost entirely intact.  There are several MVP candidates on this roster, including outfielders Christian Yelich and Bryce Harper, third baseman Alex Bregman, and if you consider positional value, catcher J.T. Realmuto should be on that list as well.  The Astros duo of George Springer and Michael Brantly round out a very solid outfield.  Xander Bogaerts, Josh Bell, Matt Chapman and newcomer Brandon Lowe complete an infield this is also well above average.  Really, there is no noticeable hole on the batting side of this roster.  The pitching staff received most of the attention in the draft, and could be a much improved group in 2020.  First round pick Chris Paddack joins a rotation that already has arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom.  Jose Berrios and Patrick Corbin are solid mid-rotation pieces as well.  One player who should really benefit from the late start to the season is James Paxton, who would not have been healthy enough to pitch back in April, but should be good for a full season starting now.  The same could be said for reliever Corey Knebel, although his upside is limited in terms of saves.  Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand and Taylor Rogers form a very strong trio of closers that should put the Darkhorses near the top of the saves category.  If you think these projections might be a little light on the Darkhorses power potential, they probably should be viewed as the favorites to win it all this season.  No team enters the season with a more complete, and currently healthy roster.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (10th)
  • Home Runs - 1st (5th)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (3rd)
  • Runs Scored - 5th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (4th)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (5th)
  • Wins - 3rd (5th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (9th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 1st (7th)
  • Total Points - 1st (7th)

Summary:

These projections are a little shocking, especially on the pitching side of things.  As mentioned up top, the Jackalope have a recent history of not meeting expectations, at least those established by using this projection system.  So maybe being picked as the favorite for the second consecutive year isn’t a great thing.  The batting projections make some sense because this roster is loaded with good hitters.  Reigning Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up Ronald Acuna leads the way.  His five category prowess gives the Jackalope a solid base on which to build.  If healthy, Giancarlo Stanton is a nice second piece in the outfield.  Ryan Braun could be one of the top beneficiaries to the full time DH in the National League.  The Jackalope infield is solid all around, led by veterans Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt.  First round pick Keston Hiura has exciting potential as well.  He could be the best pure hitter taken in the draft this year, despite not having as much acclaim as the players taken ahead of him.  Gary Sanchez remains one of the best offensive catchers in baseball.  There is a lot to like about the Jackalope’s offensive potential.  Where I think they may have a hard time reaching these projections is on the mound.  The methodology used to create these numbers may be inflating the pitching numbers a bit because of the lack of depth in the rotation.  With Luis Severino out for the year, the Jackalope only have five healthy starting pitchers entering the season.  So the gaudy numbers of Gerrit Cole aren’t weighed down by any depth pieces.  If the rotation stays completely healthy, they should be in good shape.  If not… well, things could get ugly.  Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow will be Cole’s sidekicks.  Dinelson Lamet was a nice addition to the rotation.  The bullpen is a concern.  Raisel Iglesias is the only closer with pretty good job security.  Sean Doolittle should get the bulk of the save opportunities early on though.  Clearly, the Jackalope have the talent needed to win the title despite four straight seasons in the bottom half of the league.  But I’m not sure I would anoint them as the favorites, as these projections do.

 

Now that we’ve taken a glance at all ten teams, it is time to post the full projected standings.  First, here are the numbers my spreadsheets spit out for this 60-game schedule:

And here is what my original 162-game projections looked like when I compiled them after the draft in late March. Keep in mind that these were computed using projections for some players who have since gotten hurt or opted out of the season:

Baseball is back! I hope you enjoy the start of the season.

A Family Affair

Tuesday, March 10th, 2020

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Trivia time!  What do Fernando Tatis, Vladimir Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Craig Biggio all have in common?  If you guessed that they all hit at least .290 with 15+ home runs for their respective DTBL teams in 1999, you are correct!  Oh, and they also all have sons who were selected in the first 15 picks of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  This league has been around long enough that we had already seen a few sons of former DTBL players become second generation league members.  But in the previous instances, the fathers only had a cup of coffee in this league at the tail end of their careers.  This four-some is different.  All four compiled multiple strong seasons in the league and all but Tatis were among the league’s best players in its first 10-15 years.

Interestingly, it is the least accomplished father of those four whose son enters the league with the highest acclaim.  The Demigods selected the do-it-all shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. with the first pick in the draft.  Tatis hit .317 with 22 homers and 16 stolen bases in a MLB rookie campaign that was cut short by injury.  Provided he has a full year of solid health in 2020, it isn’t unreasonable to think he could be the second straight #1 draft pick to post a 30/30 season in his DTBL rookie year.  The Demigods will turn to Tatis to help put their miserable 2019 behind them.  Keep in mind that prior to last year, this is a team that finished in the top half of the standings in five straight seasons.  Tatis has the talent to lift them back up to their recent historic norms.

While Tatis was spectacular last year, he probably wouldn’t have won the NL Rookie of the Year award even if he had stayed healthy.  Not with Pete Alonso breaking the MLB all-time rookie record for home runs.  Alonso slugged 53 homers, which would have led the DTBL by four had he been in the league a year ago.  His 120 RBIs would have been fourth best in the league.  He was worthy of the second overall pick in the draft on his own merit, but he also happens to be an ideal fit for the Choppers who finished next to last in home runs and RBIs and dead last in total batting points a year ago.  This is the third straight year the Choppers have used their first pick on an infielder.  Alonso figures to have the biggest impact of them all.

The Komodos made it consecutive 2019 MLB Rookie of the Year winners when they selected Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez with the third pick.  Alvarez crashed the AL rookie party that was supposed to be all about a couple guys that will be covered below.  He hit .317 with 27 home runs and 78 RBIs despite not making his debut until June.  Had he been in the majors from the jump like Alonso, perhaps he too could have challenged the rookie home run record.  Alvarez is currently sidelined with a knee issue.  But assuming that doesn’t keep him out of action too long, he figures to be one of the league’s top sluggers.  He will join Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Nelson Cruz and Jose Ramirez to form what could be a sneaky great Komodos offense.

Sneaky great is also an appropriate way of describing Keston Hiura’s young MLB career.  The Jackalope tabbed the Brewers second baseman with the fourth pick.  In 84 games, Hiura managed to hit .303 with 19 homers and nine stolen bases.  Extrapolate those numbers out to a full season and you could have the makings of a stud at a very weak offensive position.  The Jackalope have had one of the league’s best infields for a while now, but Hiura injects it with a needed shot of youth.  The spring is not off to a great start from a health perspective for the Jackalope.  Hiura could help cure much of what ails them, however.

Only one player selected in the first round won’t be making his DTBL debut this season.  Lucas Giolito was signed as a free agent by the Mavericks late in the 2017 season and was subsequently released prior to 2018, when the Mavericks picked him up again in the seventh round of the draft.  But he was released again by the Mavericks that May and had such a poor season that he got dropped from the league last year.  2019 Giolito was basically a brand new pitcher, making the All-Star team and compiling a Cy Young campaign resume.  The pitcher the Cougars drafted with the fifth pick this year really doesn’t resemble the one who pitched for the Mavericks.  In ’19, Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, won 14 games and struck out an impressive 228 batters in 177 innings.  The Cougars pitching staff prevented them from being serious contenders a year ago.  Giolito could help change that.

A year ago, it seemed like a near certainty that I would be writing about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the first player taken in the 2020 draft.  Not that some of these other guys weren’t highly touted prospects, but Guerrero was at a different level.  His MLB debut became a must-see event, unlike any player I can recall since Bryce Harper.  That incredible, and probably unfair, level of hype made his 2019 season seem a little underwhelming.  He hit .272 with “only” 15 homers.  Here’s another number that is equally relevant though:  21.  That’s the age Guerrero will turn next week.  What Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto have done in their teens/very early 20s just isn’t normal.  Struggling to get your footing in the big leagues like Guerrero did *is* normal.  I have it on good authority that the Moonshiners were shocked and thrilled to grab him with the sixth pick in this draft.  If Vladito does in fact reach his potential, we’ll all look back on this pick and wonder how it came to be.

The Mavericks were also probably quite surprised about the availability of their first round pick.  They selected slugging outfielder Eloy Jimenez with the seventh pick.  Much of what I wrote about Guerrero applies to Jimenez as well, although he is a little older and did wind up posting pretty solid numbers thanks to a strong finish to the 2019 season.  31 home runs and 79 RBIs are impressive totals for a rookie and could be viewed as the floor of what to expect from here on out.  He seems a good bet to improve on the .267 average too.  Assuming good health, the Mavericks outfield is absolutely ridiculous.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Nick Castellanos and now Jimenez.  The rest of the roster ain’t too shabby either.

The Beanballers first official selection as a member of the DTBL was another flashy young shortstop who is the son of a former DTBL player, Bo Bichette.  Bichette has the fewest big league games under his belt of this first round group, but he made his short stint in the big leagues count.  In just 46 games, he hit .311 with 11 homers.  While not directly fantasy relevant, he also had 18 doubles.  So the extra base power appears to be legit.  With a new league member, it is hard to predict what the draft strategy might be.  In this case, it looks like the Beanballers went with the best young talent available, because shortstop was not a position of need with Trea Turner and Amed Rosario already on the roster.  You can’t go wrong with a middle infielder with huge upside though.  Bichette joins a roster with plenty of talent, so it will be interesting to see how the Beanballers do on their maiden voyage.

Seven of the first eight selections were hitters.  We finally saw a rookie pitcher go off the board when the Darkhorses selected Chris Paddack at #9.  While still at the very beginning of his career, Paddack already has an advanced repertoire, which he used to compile some gaudy numbers in 2019.  His sub 1.00 WHIP and 3.33 ERA were pretty incredible for a first season in the majors.  This selection made all the sense in the world for the Darkhorses, who have fallen a little short of the champion Kings the past two seasons because they didn’t have quite enough pitching.  Paddack will join Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin and Jose Berrios in a rotation that seems quite capable of closing that gap and claiming their first DTBL title in 10 years.

The Kings probably would have drafted any of the nine players selected ahead of them if they had fallen to the last slot in the first round.  Instead, they settled for a pitcher with very intriguing stuff, but also one who missed half of the 2019 campaign with a PED suspension.  Athletics hurler Frankie Montas was the final pick of the first round of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  Before the suspension, Montas was electric.  He struck out more than a batter per inning with a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  While starting pitching has been the Kings strength in their recent championship runs, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t getting any younger.  So they will turn to Montas as a potential ace in waiting.  In the meantime, he will join those guys in a rather formidable rotation.

A quick note on one second round selection referenced up top:  the Cougars selected second baseman Cavan Biggio with the 15th overall pick.  This connection is intriguing since Cavan’s father Craig was also a second baseman on the first two Cougars championship squads and was an all-time great for both the Cougars and Choppers.

After a bit of a slow start, we’ve hit our stride the past few days and are now on a great pace.  We should have plenty of time between the conclusion of the draft and Opening Day.  Keep up the good work!

DTBL Best of the Decade

Tuesday, December 31st, 2019

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The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin’s Kings

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren’t the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay’s Jackalope

The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn’t necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we’ve ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let’s just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn’t really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

 

Now let’s move onto the All-Decade players.  I’ve selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I’ve bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn’t want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn’t want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

 

First Team All-Decade

C – Victor Martinez (Naturals ’10-’15, Mavericks ’16, Kings ’17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

C – Buster Posey (Demigods ’11-’19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope ’12-’19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

2B – Jose Altuve (Demigods ’12-’19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

3B – Nolan Arenado (Naturals ’14-’19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

SS – Francisco Lindor (Demigods ’16-’19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

1B/3B – Miguel Cabrera (Naturals ’10-’18, Mavericks ’19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

2B/SS – Robinson Cano (Kings ’10-’19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

OF – Mike Trout (Mavericks ’12-’19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

OF – Nelson Cruz (Mavericks ’10-’11, Gators ’12-’17, Komodos ’18-’19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

OF – Mookie Betts (Kings ’15-’19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

OF – Andrew McCutchen (Naturals ’10-’17, Choppers ’18-’19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

OF – Ryan Braun (Jackalope ’10-’19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11, Mavericks ’12-’14, Darkhorses ’15-’19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

SP – Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks ’10-’19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

SP – Max Scherzer (Jackalope ’10, Kings ’10-’19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

SP – Justin Verlander (Kings ’10-’19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

SP – Zack Greinke (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11-’14, Moonshiners ’15-’19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

SP – Chris Sale (Naturals ’11, Choppers ’12-’19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

RP – Craig Kimbrel (Choppers ’11-’19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

RP – Kenley Jansen (Mavericks ’11-’19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

RP – Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks ’11, ’15-’17, Jackalope ’12-’14, Komodos ’18-’19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

RP – Jonathan Papelbon (Kings ’10-’15, Jackalope ’15-’16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

 

Second Team All-Decade

C – Yadier Molina (Choppers ’10-’16, Cougars ’17-’19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

C – J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses ’16-’19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

1B – Joey Votto (Naturals ’10-’19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

2B – Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners ’10-’16, Jackalope ’17-’18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

3B – Adrian Beltre (Choppers ’10-’18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

SS – Trea Turner (Naturals ’16-’19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

1B/3B – Freddie Freeman (Demigods ’12-’19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

2B/SS – Brian Dozier (Moonshiners ’14-’19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

OF – Charlie Blackmon (Cougars ’15-’19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

OF – Bryce Harper (Darkhorses ’13-’19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

OF – Christian Yelich (Darkhorses ’14-’19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope ’11-’19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (Kings ’10-’17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

DH – Albert Pujols (Jackalope ’10-’14, Mavericks ’15, ’18, Choppers ’16-’17, Darkhorses ’18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

SP – David Price (Naturals ’10-’18, Komodos ’19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

SP – Madison Bumgarner (Cougars ’11-’19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

SP – Felix Hernandez (Jackalope ’10-’14, ’18, Moonshiners ’15-’17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

SP – Jon Lester (Naturals ’10-’12, Choppers ’13-’19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

SP – Corey Kluber (Demigods ’14-’19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

RP – Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners ’10-’11, Mavericks ’12, Naturals ’14, Kings ’15-’17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

RP – Greg Holland (Gators ’12-’13, Naturals ’13-’17, Komodos ’18, Mavericks ’19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

RP – David Robertson (Cougars ’12-’19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

RP – Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners ’16-’19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

 

I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

Batters

Pitchers

Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here’s to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

Yelich Wins Stacked MVP Race

Wednesday, November 27th, 2019

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Not since 2005 have we seen three different players hit 40+ homers and steal 15+ bases in a single season.  In that season 14 years ago, Alex Rodriguez, Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols all reached those milestones.  2019 saw fewer league-wide stolen bases than any previous season since the league expanded to eight teams in 1996.  Despite a historic lack of steals, three players managed to swipe at least 15 bags while slugging over 40 home runs.  Two of them actually doubled that stolen base mark with 30+.  Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich all had seasons that were among the most valuable this league has seen in recent times.  But only one of them could win the league’s MVP award.  In an extremely competitive vote, Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich is the 2019 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

Yelich suffered a broken kneecap injury in early September that cost him an opportunity to reach all sorts of unprecedented milestones.  Yet despite missing the last several weeks of the season, he still managed to post numbers every bit as good as any player in recent memory.  He hit .329 with 44 home runs and 30 stolen bases, all three marks were among the top five in the league.  His 100 runs scored and 97 runs batted in were quite impressive as well, considering the missed time in September.  He is one of only six players in league history to have hit 40+ homers with 30+ steals and a batting average over .300.  Among those six, the only player to post a higher batting average was Larry Walker in 1997 (.366) and he benefited from playing half his games in Denver.  Yelich produced a 12.0 Batting PAR season, the third highest since 2005, just barely trailing Acuna this year and 2007 Alex Rodriguez.  Had he remained healthy, it is probably safe to assume he would have claimed the top spot on that list.

Yelich has been an excellent player his entire career.  But it was an offseason trade from Miami to Milwaukee prior to the 2018 season that seemed to push him to a new level.  He has now posted two consecutive MVP caliber seasons since joining the Brew Crew, winning the NL MVP in 2018 and finishing second for that award in the DTBL a year ago.  A third round pick by the Darkhorses in 2014, Yelich has been a fixture in their outfield since.  He has a career batting average of .304 with 134 home runs and 111 stolen bases.  He will only need a couple more seasons like the previous two to catch Matt Holliday and Hanley Ramirez as the best player in franchise history.  Shockingly, this year was the first time he was named to a DTBL All-Star team.  But he made his first appearance a memorable one, slugging a grand slam to lead the National Division to victory and was thus named the game’s MVP.  His special two year run has also vaulted the Darkhorses into championship contention.  The Darkhorses have finished runner-up to the Kings the past two years and have had the league’s best offense both seasons, in large part because of Yelich.  They have finished in the top half of the standings every year since Yelich’s rookie campaign and appear primed to make another run next season.

The vote for the MVP award was as competitive as any we’ve seen in recent years.  With three players having historically strong years, this isn’t too surprising.  Yelich only received four of the ten first place votes.  But what ultimately decided things in his favor was receiving second place votes on all of the other six ballots.  That computed to 82 total points, 11 ahead of Acuna.  The Jackalope outfielder, and Rookie of the Year recipient, also received four first place votes, but only three seconds.  Curiously, he was left off one ballot entirely.  That alone didn’t cost him the award though since he finished more than 10 points behind Yelich.  As a reminder from the ROY post, Acuna set a new high water mark for Batting PAR since 2005.  Komodos first baseman Bellinger was a top three choice on all ten ballots, but only two of them were first place nods.  The NL MVP had impressive five category totals in his own right, but fell a bit short of Yelich and Acuna in steals.  Bellinger finished third with 62 points.  I only have the full award voting results dating back to 2005, but this is the first time since then that three different players have received at least 60 points in the MVP vote.  Needless to say, there was a bit of a gap after those three.  Coming in fourth was the AL MVP and perennial DTBL MVP candidate, Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout.  Amazingly, Trout has now been an All-Star and a MVP vote recipient in every season of his DTBL career, which dates back to 2012.  And perhaps even more amazing, he has only won this award once, in 2014.  His consistent greatness should never be ignored.  He has posted a Batting PAR of at least 7.6 every season of his career.  Trout appeared on nine of the ten ballots and accumulated 21 points.  There was a tie for fifth place between a couple of slugging third basemen:  Moonshiners’ Rafael Devers and Jacklope’s Anthony Rendon.  They finished with eight points each.

Click here to view the full voting results.

That concludes the 2019 DTBL awards announcements.  Usually, this MVP post is my final one of the year.  But that will not be the case this year.  With the decade about to end next month, I plan on doing some sort of 2010s decade recap in December.  At the very least, it will include an All-Decade Team and perhaps a look at the league’s best teams over the past 10 years as well.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Kings vs. Darkhorses Again?

Monday, September 2nd, 2019

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Entering September of 2018, the Kings held a slim four point lead over the Darkhorses.  They would briefly relinquish that lead, but ultimately managed to win the DTBL Championship.  This year, the Kings once again held a four point lead over the Darkhorses heading into the season’s final month.  It is a pretty similar situation with these two seemingly the best bets to win it all.  The margin over the rest of the league is actually a little larger this year though.  As of today, the Mavericks find themselves almost 20 points behind the Kings with exactly four weeks to go.  That’s not completely insurmountable, but they will definitely need some help from both of the top two teams to make up some of that ground.

The Kings and Darkhorses both appear to be slightly better versions of the 2018 editions of themselves.  The Kings still have the league’s best pitching staff.  But this year, they have held the top spot in all five pitching categories for a good portion of the season.  The offense is not as good, but only two other teams have more batting points.  On the other hand, the Darkhorses once again have the league’s best offense.  But this year, no other team is even close.  They have 48 batting points and appear to be close to a lock to win four of the five batting categories (all but stolen bases).  And their pitching staff is pretty good too.  Like Kings hitters, Darkhorses pitchers rank third in total points.

It is really hard to handicap this race, because unlike last year, these two teams have been neck-and-neck pretty much all season.  Neither has had an extended period of poor play.  Both teams are relatively healthy heading into the final four weeks as well.  The Darkhorses are looking for their fifth league title, but first since 2010, while the Kings are seeking their record extending eighth league crown.  It should be a fascinating race.

Here are the award winners for August of 2019.

Batters of the Week:

Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Gleyber Torres, Cougars
Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Mike Minor, Naturals
Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Jack Flaherty, Mavericks
Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Dallas Keuchel, Darkhorses
Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Justin Verlander, Kings

The Batters of the Week in August featured four players having monster seasons.  Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres have both already reached 30 home runs in their DTBL rookie campaigns.  Anthony Rendon also surpassed that mark in the past week.  And then there is Eugenio Suarez who hit his 40th (!!!) home run of the season yesterday.  As usual, the pitching award winners are a bunch of veterans still going strong, with youngster Jack Flaherty crashing the party.  Justin Verlander locked up the weekly award by pitching his third career no-hitter yesterday.  Because that happened on September 1 though, it didn’t help his cause for winning another Pitcher of the Month award.

Batter of the Month:

Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
.270 AVG, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 23 R, 6 SB, 3.26 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Mike Clevinger, Naturals
1.96 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 51 K, 3.06 PAR

Last week, to the best of my knowledge, Ronald Acuna became just the second player to reach the 30/30 HR/SB club in his DTBL rookie campaign.  I don’t have a particularly easy way to confirm this, but I did a Baseball Reference Play Index search looking for 30/30 seasons since 1993 in a player’s first two MLB seasons and the only other result was Mike Trout in 2012.  So I feel pretty confident about this assertion.  Acuna currently has 36 home runs and 33 stolen bases with four weeks to go in the season.  He has a great shot at becoming the league’s fourth 40/40 player.  It once looked like a two horse race between Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich for the league MVP award, but Acuna is very much in the thick of that race now, in addition to Rookie of the Year.  As strong as his August was, three other players nearly snatched this award from him:  Demigods outfielder J.D. Martinez and the Nationals dynamic duo of Mavericks outfielder Juan Soto (also a DTBL rookie) and Jackalope third baseman Anthony Rendon.

Finally, we have someone who isn’t a grizzled veteran winning the Pitcher of the Month award.  Mike Clevinger was a late bloomer, but is in just his second DTBL season with the Naturals.  At 28, he is easily the youngest to win this award so far in 2019.  Despite losing about two months due to an injury, he has still managed to compile a nice stat line for the season.  Half of his 10 wins came in August though.  He led the league in August strikeouts with 51.  For what it’s worth, he would not have won this award had Jack Flaherty’s first start of the month been as an active member of the Mavericks rotation.  Despite that start not counting, Flaherty still finished third for the award.  The runner-up was the Cougars’ Sonny Gray who is having a very nice career resurgence this summer.

Yelich Slams National To Victory

Sunday, July 28th, 2019

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A year ago in the DTBL All-Star Game, the National Division staged an incredible comeback to defeat the American Division. They scored seven runs in the 7th and 8th innings to win by a score of 8-7. The game winning hit was a home run off of Aroldis Chapman. Sometimes history does repeat itself. In the 26th Annual DTBL All-Star Game, played for the first time at The Dragon Den, home of Kat’s Komodos, Christian Yelich launched a grand slam off of Chapman in the top of the seventh to give the National All-Stars their first lead of the game. They would hold on to defeat the American team by a final of 5-4, collecting their fourth straight victory in the mid-summer classic.

Just like a year ago, the game got off to a great start for the American Division. Hyun-Jin Ryu got the start and survived a couple of singles to pitch a scoreless top of the first. In the bottom of the first, National starter Max Scherzer was uncharacteristically knocked around. The first three hitters he faced all recorded hits, highlighted by a run scoring double by Rafael Devers. The damage could have been worse had Willson Contreras not picked off Cody Bellinger at first. But the Americans had an early one run lead. It didn’t last long, however, as Trevor Story tied the game with a solo home run leading off the second. Scherzer continued to struggle in the bottom half, surrendering a mammoth, opposite-field 464 foot bomb by Eddie Rosario. Scherzer’s Kings teammate Justin Verlander struggled in the third inning as well. He gave up a two run homer to Nolan Arenado to stake the American squad to a 4-1 lead after three innings.

After the third, things started to settle down and return to usual DTBL All-Star Game mode of an inordinate number of strikeouts. In the fourth inning, all six batters who stepped up to the plate were retired on strikeouts. Gerrit Cole for the American Division and Jacob deGrom for the National both struck out the side. Neither team really mounted much of a scoring chance in any of the middle innings. It remained 4-1 heading into the seventh inning, when everything changed.

Kirby Yates started the seventh inning on the mound for the American side. He had major trouble finding the strike zone, loading the bases on three walks while also striking out a pair of hitters. The third walk was to Mike Trout, bringing Christian Yelich to the plate with the bags full and two outs. The American All-Stars then turned to Aroldis Chapman to set up a lefty vs. lefty matchup in the games biggest moment. Unfortunately for them, playing the matchup didn’t pan out. Yelich greeted Chapman with a first pitch opposite field bomb to left to clear the bases, giving the National All-Stars a 5-4 lead.

After that, pitchers resumed their domination of hitters on both sides.  The National Division sent lefty Brad Hand to the mound to start the bottom of the ninth.  He retired the first two hitters he faced, but then surrendered a single to Cody Bellinger giving the American squad some life.  Kenley Jansen was then called upon to get the final out.  Sure enough, he struck out Anthony Rendon to lock up the 5-4 victory for the National All-Stars.  In keeping with the theme of repeating last year’s game, Jansen also closed out that National win.

Will Smith picked up the win for the National team, having pitched an inefficient, but effective scoreless bottom of the sixth.  Chapman was tagged with a blown save and a loss for the second straight year.  And as just mentioned, this was the second consecutive save in an All-Star Game for Jansen.  Christian Yelich was the clear recipient of the game’s Most Valuable Player award.  The Darkhorses outfielder had a pair of hits, including the game deciding grand slam, walked once and drove in 80% of the National runs.  It is the third time in this four game winning streak by the National Division that the MVP has been won by a member of the Darkhorses, with Xander Bogaerts and Bryce Harper also earning this honor in recent years.

Continuing the recent trend of a plethora of strikeouts in DTBL All-Star Games, there were 26 in this ballgame.  The National pitchers struck out 11, while the American hurlers recorded 15 K’s.  DeGrom, Cole and Roberto Osuna all struck out the side in their innings of work.  Besides Yelich, some of the other offensive standouts included Charlie Blackmon with a pair of hits for the National team and  Cody Bellinger who had a game high three hits for the American side.  Arenado probably would have been in line for the MVP award had the American Division held the lead as he recorded a home run and a double.  One other notable performance was Javy Baez who took the golden sombrero, striking out in all four of his plate appearances.

The four straight victories by the National Division is a new DTBL All-Star Game record for consecutive wins by a team.  They have extended their overall lead to 15-11.  Click here to see the box score from the 2019 DTBL All-Star Game.

2019 Season Preview: Part II

Monday, March 25th, 2019

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The second part of this 2019 DTBL season preview series will examine three teams that are projected to finish with nearly identical point totals, within a single point of each other.  Two of the teams are slotted just a couple points ahead of the ninth place Cougars as well, so that means things are projected to be very tight in the bottom half of the standings.  The previous post covered a pair of teams that finished in the top half of the standings a year ago.  Meanwhile, this one covers two more teams in that situation.  So for those of you scoring at home, that means that four of the five teams that will be projected to finish in the top half of the standings were among the teams that finished in the bottom half a year ago.  And the lone team that is picked to remain in the bottom half would still consider this projection to be a pretty significant step forward.  So I guess what I’m getting at is that 2019 may look nothing like 2018 in the DTBL.  Here are the previews for the teams picked to finish in sixth and a tie for seventh places.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored - 10th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average - 3rd (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (6th)
  • Wins - 1st (3rd)
  • Saves – 6th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (4th)

Summary:

Last year marked the fifth time in six seasons that the Thunder Choppers finished in the top four of the league.  However, once again, they weren’t able to keep pace with the league champion.  Despite all of those high finishes, they’ve only come close to a title once in that stretch, finishing 2 1/2 points out in 2016.  It was a mediocre offense that held them back a year ago.  Unfortunately, these projections show that being an issue again this season as they are tabbed to record the fewest batting points in the league.  But there could be a little more upside this time around as they went heavier than usual on younger players with higher upsides in the draft.  Anthony Rizzo and Whit Merrifield have strong offensive projections, but none of their other hitters jump off the page.  New additions Miguel Andujar, Franmil Reyes and Willy Adames have intriguing potential though.  And let’s not forget returning outfielder Byron Buxton, who was the top prospect in all of baseball just a few years ago.  If he ever figures it out, he could be a fantasy superstar.  The pitching staff was very good last year, but could be even better in 2019.  Chris Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender.  Trevor Bauer had a huge breakout a year ago and is their clear #2 now.  Bauer’s Indians teammate Shane Bieber is the exciting new addition to the Choppers rotation.  The bullpen could be excellent as well, but Craig Kimbrel is going to need to sign with a MLB team sooner than later to solidify the group.  Otherwise, it will be Ken Giles and Jordan Hicks leading the way.  One fallback plan if Kimbrel never gets a job will be Corbin Burnes, who can continue the Choppers tradition of having a starting pitcher accumulating stats from a relief pitching slot, something these projections don’t really take into account.  A seventh place finish would be disappointing for the Choppers.  If their offense is better than prognosticated, they will likely finish in the top half of the standings once again.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (1st)
  • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (4th)
  • Earned Run Average - 8th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 10th (4th)
  • Wins – 10th (9th)
  • Saves - 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points - 10th (7th)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (2nd)

Summary:

Of the four teams projected to drop from the top to bottom half of the league this season, the Darkhorses would be the biggest disappointment if this actually came to pass.  They put a serious scare into the Kings down the stretch last season before falling a little short.  Had the pitching staff been a little more productive, they would have won the league.  But they are now projected to have the worst pitching staff in the league.  The numbers are dragged down a bit by a couple of their surplus Braves starters who don’t figure to be regulars in the rotation though.  Speaking of Braves starters, they have four of them.  First round pick Mike Foltynewicz will be the key to ensuring they don’t have the worst staff in the league.  He will slot in behind Jacob deGrom, who once again should be one of the best pitchers in the league.  A little more win luck for him would be helpful as well.  The projections aren’t quite as optimistic about Patrick Corbin or Jose Berrios, but the talent is there for this to be a pretty good staff.  With Corey Knebel’s health a huge concern, they may have trouble racking up the saves.  Brad Hand is the only safe bet to be a significant save accumulator.  Meanwhile, the offense should remain one of the best in the league.  They have seven hitters projected for 3+ PAR, tied for the most in the league.  Those seven:  Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Daniel Murphy, Xander Boagarts, Bryce Harper, George Springer and Christian Yelich.  And that doesn’t even include J.T. Realmuto, who may be the best catcher in the league.  They could benefit from some positive home ballpark changes among those guys too, namely Harper, Realmuto and Murphy.  This is a very deep offensive unit.  Whether or not you believe the Darkhorses will compete for the title, or finish close to these projections instead largely depends on what you expect from their pitching staff.  If better than advertised, they will be a dangerous team once again.

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases - 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average - 10th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 6th (10th)
  • Wins - 3rd (5th)
  • Saves - 8th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 6th-T (9th)
  • Total Points – 6th (9th)

Summary:

Finally, we come to our first team that did not finish in the top half of the standings last season.  But this projection also shows what would be a significant change in fortune for a Komodos squad that finished ninth a year ago.  Perhaps hidden a bit by the overall place of finish was just how solid of an offensive core this team has already assembled.  The 31 batting points they earned in 2018 was more than the Gators franchise they inherited had accumulated in any season since 2008.  Since their focus was almost exclusively on pitching in the early rounds of the draft, this is basically the same offensive team as a year ago, led by Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger and Starling Marte.  Two other guys who don’t receive a ton of attention when focusing on the best players in MLB, but who are fantasy studs are Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo.  This team’s most glaring strength is their speed.  Marte, Ramirez, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith should give the Komodos a great chance of winning the stolen base category once again.  The main reason for optimism that 2019 will be a huge step forward for this franchise is the seemingly improved pitching staff.  The second overall pick in the draft, Walker Buehler gives them a potential ace, which they simply did not have last year.  The rest of the rotation is filled with steady, solid veterans in David Price, J.A. Happ, Rich Hill and Jose Quintana.  At first glance, the bullpen doesn’t look great with only Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates entrenched as closers.  But Collin McHugh is another potential stat accumulator as a starter in a relief slot.  These projections show the Komodos improving to sixth in the league in pitching points and sixth overall.  Those would be massive improvements over a year ago.  There are plenty of reasons for the Komodos to be optimistic about their second season in the DTBL.

Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

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The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year’s group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in ’18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year’s most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won’t see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn’t play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won’t get their money’s worth until next year and beyond.

The Mavericks aren’t used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so ’18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he’s unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won’t see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we’ll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let’s keep up the good work!

Kings, Darkhorses Vie For Title

Thursday, September 27th, 2018

Embed from Getty Images
As usual, I have gotten lazy with my DTBL News articles as the season has worn on.  I thought about skipping this one altogether, but decided it would be good to get a least some of the following out of the way before the season ends.  Scroll to the bottom of the article if you have been waiting weeks to find out who the best players of August were, as we near the end of September.  But first, a brief look at what is in store for the final weekend of the season.

The Kings have been in first place all but four days this season.  The only time they were lower than second place was the day after Opening Day.  They held a share of the lead every single day from April 18 through September 16.  And yet, with just three full days remaining on the calendar, they are hardly a sure thing to win their seventh DTBL Championship.  They dominated the league for the first three months, but faded badly in July and especially August.  It was not a huge surprise when the Darkhorses finally caught them a couple weeks ago.  But the Kings picked a good time to get hot again as their offense has had its best stretch in several months over the past week or so.  With one weekend to go, the Kings lead over the Darkhorses is four points.  That is, by no means, a safe lead.

The final week began with the Kings leading the Darkhorses by 1 1/2 points.  The Demigods were just five back and the Choppers were in striking distance as well, seven points behind.  But since then, the Kings have picked up 3 1/2 points and have increased their lead over all of the challengers.  I think it is safe to say that the Choppers and Demigods are probably out of it now, barring something miraculous.  But the Darkhorses have several paths to claiming the title.

The categories that present the best opportunities for the Darkhorses to pick up points are batting average, ERA and maybe home runs.  If Jacob deGrom were slated to pitch one more time, I might have thrown strikeouts in there too.  But realistically, 71-72 points is probably the Darkhorses’ ceiling.  In other words, they are going to need a little help as the Kings sit at 73 points.  But the Kings could very easily spit back some points they’ve gained this week.  They are very vulnerable in home runs, RBIs and ERA.  The game I will have my eye on will be Jon Gray facing a resurgent Nationals offense at Coors Field on Saturday night.  If Gray were to get lit up, a loss of an ERA point would be very possible for the Kings.  On the flip side, the Kings have some suddenly hot power hitters, like David Dahl and A.J. Pollock.  The Darkhorses will be rooting for a power outage from the Kings this weekend.

Keep in mind that our league does count stats from tie-breaker games.  There is a very good chance that at least one tie-breaker will be required to settle the National League playoff races.  So this thing may not be over on Sunday.  However, no roster moves will be processed before Monday, so the current active rosters will remain in effect until the season is officially over.  If the championship remains up for grabs on Monday, I’ll be live blogging the action.

Now it is time to play catch-up on all of the weekly and monthly awards I missed.  Since I’m so late with these, I’m not going to bother with write-ups.  But here are the weekly award winners from August and September (so far).

Batters of the Week:

Week 19 (7/30 – 8/5) – Matt Carpenter, Choppers
Week 20 (8/6 – 8/12) – J.D. Martinez, Demigods
Week 21 (8/13 – 8/19) – Justin Turner, Darkhorses
Week 22 (8/20 – 8/26) – Javier Baez, Mavericks
Week 23 (8/27 – 9/2) – Christian Yelich, Darkhorses
Week 24 (9/3 – 9/9) – Trevor Story, Cougars
Week 25 (9/10 – 9/16) – Whit Merrifield, Choppers
Week 26 (9/17 – 9/23) – Tommy Pham, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 19 (7/30 – 8/5) – Jon Gray, Kings
Week 20 (8/6 – 8/12) – Trevor Bauer, Choppers
Week 21 (8/13 – 8/19) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
Week 22 (8/20 – 8/26) – Kevin Gausman, Kings
Week 23 (8/27 – 9/2) – Corey Kluber, Demigods
Week 24 (9/3 – 9/9) – Robbie Ray, Moonshiners
Week 25 (9/10 – 9/16) – Justin Verlander, Kings
Week 26 (9/17 – 9/23) – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Choppers

And now, here are the Batter and Pitcher of the Month from August 2018.

Batter of the Month:

Matt Carpenter, Choppers
J.D. Martinez, Demigods
.373 AVG, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 24 R, 2 SB, 2.69 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
1.24 ERA, 0.985 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 60 K, 3.29 PAR

FYI, Carpenter Martinez just barely edged out the Darkhorses’ Christian Yelich, who is probably a strong contender for this award again in September.  Speaking of guys who are strong contenders for September honors, deGrom’s unbelievable ’18 season was finally rewarded in August.

It should be an exciting final weekend, both in the DTBL and MLB.  May the best teams win!

TWO YEARS LATER EDIT:  When going through these articles to retroactively populate the honors table with past monthly award winners, I discovered I completely botched this one.  J.D. Martinez was the actual Player of the Month for August 2018.  My spreadsheet of monthly stats clearly states that, and I verified that the stat line above matches what Martinez produced in 8/18, not Carpenter.  I do not know how I got this wrong.