Archive for the ‘Darkhorses’ Category

2025 Season Preview: Part III

Sunday, March 30th, 2025

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The first weekend of the 2025 MLB season has come to an end.  Early indications are the Yankees might torpedo the record book if they keep up their current home run pace.  Nothing like an equipment controversy to get the season started!

This brings us to the final installment of our 2025 DTBL season preview series.  My cutoff decision for which teams will be covered in which sections is generally determined by grouping teams that are all expected to finish closely bunched in the standings.  That was true of both of the first two parts this year.  That is not exactly the case for this last one though.  The team that is projected to win the league this year has no peer according to these rankings.  They would have deserved their own article if my grouping rule was strictly enforced.  That’s not to say these other two teams don’t look strong in their own right though.  This final group contains last year’s top two teams joined by what would be the team with the biggest jump in the standings this year if these numbers turn out correct.  These are the teams projected to finish in the top three spots in the standings.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (8th)
  • Wins – 4th (5th-T)
  • Saves – 1st (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (8th)

Summary:

Here we have the biggest movers relative to their 2024 finish in this preview series.  It makes some sense because last year was a bit of an aberration for the Darkhorses who fell to eighth place a year after finishing a close second.  Their fall can almost entirely be pinned on being without arguably their best two starting pitchers and best relief pitcher for almost the entire season.  These projections show them returning to their prior spot as the top pitching staff in the league.  Whether or not you believe such a turnaround is possible depends on the belief in Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom and Felix Bautista returning to their pre-injury form and doing it for most of the season.  Logan Webb, Hunter Greene and Sonny Gray join Strider and deGrom to make up what projects to be the best rotation in the league.  But it remains to be seen if Strider and deGrom will be able to recapture their prior stuff and remain healthy throughout the season.  Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff were nice insurance adds in the draft, though the latter is also coming back from his own major injury.  The Darkhorses managed to finish second in the league in saves last year even without Bautista.  So having him back in the mix along with Andres Munoz, Robert Suarez, Chris Martin and maybe even Calvin Faucher make them the favorites to lead the way in saves this year.  Unless injuries ravage the Darkhorses again, the pitching staff is too good for them to finish near the bottom of the standings again this year.  Whether or not they can contend for a title will depend on if the offense is able to take a big step forward.  Interestingly, the Darkhorses have an overall third place projection despite also having one of the poorest batting point projections in the league.  That’s because only two players are projected for Batting PAR totals over 3:  Bryce Harper and third overall draft pick Jackson Merrill.  Merrill provides the most hope for an improved offense.  He will supplement a mostly veteran lineup.  In the outfield, Merrill is joined by Christian Yelich, George Springer, Taylor Ward and Cedric Mullins.  The infield is also full of veterans like Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa.  The infield youth injection is second round pick Jackson Holliday, who had a rough introduction to the big leagues last year.  But at this time a year ago, he was the consensus top prospect in the game, so enormous upside still remains.  Another pre-prime infielder on the roster is shortstop Masyn Winn.  This third place projection does make sense for a talented Darkhorses roster.  Their most likely path to this sort of finish though will require more offensive production because there are just too many health concerns on the pitching front to be confident of them racking up 46 out of 50 possible pitching points.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
  • Wins – 2nd (1st-T)
  • Saves – 6th (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

The Moonshiners are the only team projected to finish within shouting distance of the top dog.  They are similarly one of only two teams that are projected to be above average in both batting and pitching points.  Most years a roster like this might even come out on top of such an exercise.  Of course, it would be pretty hard *not* to have an above average offense with Shohei Ohtani on the squad.  He comfortably leads the league in projected Batting PAR at an incredible 10.6, two points higher than any other player.  He’s not doing it alone though.  Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr are also among the top hitters in the league.  Ohtani and Tucker are joined in the outfield by a couple underappreciated performers in Ian Happ and Riley Greene.  Guerrero and Rafael Devers will continue to anchor the corner infield spots.  The spring controversy over what position Devers will play shouldn’t be too much of an issue for the Moonshiners as long as he keeps hitting.  The middle infield was perhaps a bit if a weakness, so they traded for Bo Bichette to unite him with Guerrero in this league as well as Toronto.  Bichette joins Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop.  Tovar is another guy on this team whose production easily exceeds the hype.  Perhaps the top breakout candidate on the roster is third baseman Junior Caminero who had a nice cameo in the big leagues at the end of last season and is now ready to do it for a full campaign for the first time.  Tarik Skubal was a bit of a one man show in the Moonshiners rotation a year ago.  The Cy Young winner was the only standout performer of the group, but was so dominant that the team finished second in pitching points.  He is the only pitcher who was a member of that rotation for a majority of last season who is back this year.  But now he has some help in the way of first round draft pick Garrett Crochet.  The Red Sox new ace gives the Moonshiners the nastiest pair of left handed pitchers in the league.  A potential third nasty left hander on this staff is MacKenzie Gore who got his season off to a grand start on Thursday.  And of course they added Robbie Ray in the draft too because you just can’t have enough nasty lefties.  Kodai Senga was added as well, but last I checked he throws with his right hand.  The Moonshiners bullpen has an interesting mix right now with Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz likely to keep them afloat in saves.  They added Edwin’s brother Alexis Diaz, however he is starting the season on the injured list.  They also return Clay Holmes in a relief slot, while he is now a starting pitcher and Opening Day starter for the Mets, which could provide an avenue for extra strikeouts and wins.  There is a lot to like about this entire roster.  They do not appear to have any of the flaws that plague the teams that have been covered to this point.  However, despite that, they are also quite a ways behind the predicted champions.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (1st)
  • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (1st-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
  • Wins – 1st (4th)
  • Saves – 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

Is anybody actually surprised the Mavericks are the projected champions?  I did them a disservice by never getting around to writing about their incredible title winning squad from a year ago, particularly the historic performance by their offense.  They led the league in all five offensive categories, only falling a stolen base short of achieving the maximum 50 batting points.  The only team to ever accomplish that feat was the 2010 Naturals who actually had to share the championship with the Darkhorses that year.  The 1994 Cougars also had the max batting points, but it was only 30 at the time with just six teams in the league.  By the looks of things, the Mavericks should have a shot at chasing that record again this season.  They are projected to finish atop three batting categories and top three in the others.  As has been the case for quite some time now, the Mavericks have by far the best outfield in the league.  All time great Mike Trout is now quite clearly the fifth best player in this group.  Well ahead of him are perennial MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, last year’s breakout star Jarren Duran and Jazz Chisholm who figures to move out of this crowded outfield back to the dirt next year.  If the first weekend of the season is any indication, we’re going to be talking about Judge in particular an awful lot this year.  The infield is only weak in comparison to the outfield, not other teams’ infields.  Bobby Witt Jr leads the way at shortstop, a MVP candidate in his own right.  Ozzie Albies, Manny Machado and Willy Adames are the other mainstays here.  William Contreras may be the best offensive catcher in the game now.  He’s joined behind the plate by newcomer Austin Wells who could be a fantasy stud as well.  It is truly an embarrassment of riches up and down the Mavericks lineup.  The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the pitching staff looks a decent bit better than last year’s squad which was already quite good.  They used their first two draft picks on starting pitchers with big upside:  Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Spencer Schwellenbach.  They will join reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, Pablo Lopez, Hunter Brown and Freddy Peralta.  Not only does this staff have several potential aces, it is also quite deep now.  The bullpen is the only spot on the roster where you could maybe make a case they aren’t elite.  Mason Miller is though.  In addition to saves, he could put up a strikeout total that more closely resembles that of a starter with twice as many innings thrown.  He is the only certain closer on the team though.  Liam Hendriks and A.J. Puk are potential wild cards to add on here.  In total, the 87 projected standings points are easily the most ever since I’ve started doing this over a decade ago and the 15 point gap over all other teams is also unprecedented.  To say the Mavericks are the team to beat this year is an understatement.

 

That brings us to the conclusion of this consolidated 2025 DTBL season preview series.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to all this season.  Let’s have another great year!

Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

Sunday, March 9th, 2025

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The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he’s been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year’s draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year’s ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of ’24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn’t make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren’t quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6’7″ frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn’t make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with ’24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn’t debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year’s squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet’s profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year’s draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet’s first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he’s been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year’s draft.  Hopefully we’ll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

2024 Season Preview: Part III

Wednesday, March 27th, 2024

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Happy Opening Day Eve!  Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get a full slate of 15 games tomorrow as originally scheduled since games in New York and Philadelphia have already been postponed to Friday.  But 13 games is still enough to get excited about.  It will be year two of the drastic rule changes that had a major impact on the game a year ago, most notably the pitch clock.  Now that we know what kind of impact those changes had, we pretty much know what to expect from a fantasy perspective now too.  Steals were way up a year ago and figure to level off at a similar total again this year.  A slight boost to hitters as a whole, but not at historic levels.  Just a reversal of recent trends of pitching domination.  However, the game is always changing even when the rules do not.  So we’ll see what this season brings.

We have six more DTBL teams to preview, and these projections show very little separating any of them.  There is just a six standings point gap between the team projected to finish in first place and the two teams pinned to tie for fifth place.  That gap is just two points for the three teams covered in this section.  This includes a pair of teams that consistently find themselves near the top of the standings and a team that is looking for a huge turnaround after an extremely disappointing 2023.  These are the teams project to finish in fourth and a tie for fifth places.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
  • Wins – 3rd (3rd)
  • Saves – 3rd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (2nd)

Summary:

While a majority of the league’s teams were involved in a tight race for the ’23 title for much of the season, eventually the Darkhorses were the only ones who kept within striking distance of the eventual champion Demigods.  They were able to keep it tight because they had by far the best pitching staff in the league.  Unfortunately for them, their offense just wasn’t good enough to win it all.  That was quite surprising because the Darkhorses have almost always been known more for their hitting.  Last year was just the second time since 2010 that they had more pitching points than batting points.  These projections show that trend continuing.  There may be teams with deeper rotations, but Spencer Strider and Logan Webb as a top two is pretty hard to beat.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Hunter Greene round out the five they figure to roll with early.  The Darkhorses pitching domination last year was especially impressive since they did it without Jacob deGrom for a majority of the season.  It remains to be seen when deGrom will return to action this year.  They have already proven they can be one of the best staffs in the league without him, so he will be a nice cherry on the top whenever he returns.  The bullpen will be without their top performer from a year ago, Felix Bautista, likely for the full season.  But they do still have four other guys who look like good bets to rack up saves:  Andres Munoz, Kenley Jansen, Jose Leclerc and Robert Suarez.  Since it is probably unrealistic to expect 48 pitching points again the year, the offense is going to need to be better.  One reason to think that is likely is because Bryce Harper should be good to go from Day 1 this year, unlike last year when he was recovering from a UCL tear.  He moves to first base in this league this year, joining a stout infield with Alex Bregman, Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and first round draft pick Royce Lewis.  J.T. Realmuto had a bit of a disappointing ’23 and is a strong bounce back candidate.  Without Harper, the outfield doesn’t have the same star power it once did, but they do have a bunch of guys with solid projections in George Springer, Christian Yelich, Lane Thomas and another bounce back candidate, Starling Marte.  This may not be the juggernaut offense the Darkhorses were once known for, but it sure looks like a better squad than what the results said a year ago.  Combine that with their outstanding pitching staff and you’ve got a team that should contend again this year.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
  • Wins – 5th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 9th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (7th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (3rd-T)

Summary:

For the last decade or so, it has pretty much been a lock that the Mavericks would be near the top of these projections because they had Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw and nobody else did.  Now, Kershaw’s 15 year run with the Mavs is over (well, I suppose they could pick him up later this summer as he nears a return from shoulder surgery) and Trout is no longer a perennial MVP candidate.  In fact, the Mavericks have six other hitters ahead of Trout’s still very respectable 3.7 Batting PAR projection.  They probably do still have the league’s best outfield with Trout, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm all being players every team would want to have.  Soto joining forces with Judge at Yankee Stadium this year should be particularly dangerous for the rest of the league.  The Mavericks middle infield is also in the discussion for best in the league with Ozzie Albies, Bobby Witt Jr and Willy Adames.  Spencer Torkelson finally started to live up to that MLB first overall draft pick hype in the second half of last season.  He will be rejoined by a now healthy Vinnie Pasquantino at first base.  And veteran third baseman Manny Machado remains in the fold as well.  The catching duo of William Contreras and Gabriel Moreno is pretty solid.  The Mavericks pitching staff had a very peculiar season a year ago.  Not too often do you see a team finish dead last in ERA, but near the top of the league in wins and strikeouts.  These projections show them continuing to be the league’s best at inducing whiffs, but leveling off in the other categories.  Basically every pitcher on the roster has elite strikeout stuff.  The rotation will be anchored by Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta.  First round pick Bobby Miller will look to replace his Dodger teammate Kershaw.  Hunter Brown should get his first full season in the Astros rotation.  And then there is Chris Sale looking to recapture his old form.  They even nabbed long time Kings ace Max Scherzer to be a mid-season addition once he returns from back surgery.  There are a lot of interesting options for the Mavericks rotation.  The bullpen probably won’t add a lot of saves with Alexis Diaz the only guy in a certain closer role.  But Mason Miller, Abner Uribe and Bryan Abreu all have such great stuff that they could be plus contributors just from their gaudy strikeout totals.  There is certainly enough upside in the Mavericks pitching staff to support an excellent offense to make them title contenders once again.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (9th)
  • Wins – 2nd (8th)
  • Saves – 4th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (9th)
  • Total Points – 4th (8th)

Summary:

Perhaps the Moonshiners made a deal with the devil to finally win their first DTBL title in 2022, because 2023 was a year from hell.  Their offense took a huge step back and the pitching staff completely cratered.  But boy do these projections show that turning back around this season.  The team that finished with the second fewest pitching points a year ago is pegged to lead the league in that metric this season.  That’s mainly because the Moonshiners drafted two of the three pitchers with the highest projected PAR among those available in the draft with their first two picks:  Tarik Skubal and Zach Eflin.  They immediately become the top two projected starters for the Moonshiners, closely followed by Jesus Luzardo.  There are several solid veteran options available for the final two rotation spots among Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander and Jose Berrios.  Time will tell, but the early indication is that this Moonshiners rotation makeover should be a success.  The bullpen also gets a big time boost with the return of Edwin Diaz, who missed the entire ’23 season.  Clay Holmes and Tanner Scott join him to give the Moonshiners a good shot at being near the top of the league in saves.  It is pretty close to a lock that this team is going to be much improved on the mound.  Whether or not the offense can return to championship form is more of an open question.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Max Muncy will once again lock down the corner infield spots.  However, the middle infield and catching positions are huge question marks.  Ezequiel Tovar is the only player at those positions who grades out as at least an average contributor, though J.P. Crawford would also qualify if he proves last year’s breakout wasn’t a fluke.  The outfield is in much better shape with Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani, who is currently entwined in a gambling scandal.  Riley Greene was having a nice breakout season a year ago before getting hurt.  Daulton Varsho will look to bounce back from a disappointing campaign.  Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Moonshiners rolled the dice on infielder Junior Caminero in the third round of the draft.  He will start the season in the minors.  But he is one of the top prospects in the game, so he could provide a huge boost to this team at some point this year.  With the disappointment of ’23 behind them, this looks like a Moonshiners squad primed to return to contender status.

Dogs Make Room For EDLC

Tuesday, March 12th, 2024

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Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

2023 Season Preview: Part IV

Monday, April 3rd, 2023

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It is now time for the final installment of the 2023 DTBL season preview series.  If you thought we’d seen the last of projected ties after the last section where three teams were slotted to finish tied for fourth place, you’d be wrong.  There are two more teams with exactly four more projected standings points than that trio, which puts them in a tie for second place in these standings.  Then, in a bit of a departure from the norm, the projected champion has a fairly decent lead over all challengers according to these numbers.  That is particularly surprising since that team is expected to have a below average offense.

Based strictly on 2022 results, the presense of two of these teams in the final preview section is quite surprising.  But then if you look at the rosters and examine the reasons for the disappointing seasons a year ago, it starts to make sense.  All three of these squads have the goods to win the DTBL in 2023.  Here are the projected top three teams in the league heading into the 2023 season.

 

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases - 2nd (4th)
  • Earned Run Average - 4th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 9th (8th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (9th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Points - 2nd-T (7th)

Summary:

Impressively, the Jackalope are expected to finish at or above their point total from last year in all 10 categories.  That’s how you go about turning a disappointing finish one season into championship contention the next, by improving across the board.  While I mentioned the Kings being one of the most balanced teams in the league, the Jackalope probably deserve the title in that regard.  They are projected to finish in the top four in both batting and pitching points.  No other team can claim that.  Having said that, the pitching projections mainly expected full healthy seasons from the Jackalope hurlers, and the season is off to a bad start in that regard.  With Tyler Glasnow, Luis Severino and Triston McKenzie all starting the season on the I.L., they are down three projected rotation pieces.  That still leaves them with two of the best pitchers in the game though in Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo.  They also have Lance Lynn returning to anchor a spot.  The newcomers who will need to pick up the slack early are Brady Singer and Andrew Heaney.  The bullpen is also banged up heading into the season, most notably without top closer Raisel Iglesias.  Alex Lange, Giovanny Gallegos and Jason Adam give them some other interesting options in relief.  The good news is, they should get all of those ailing pitchers back at some point.  Perhaps the offense will need to carry the load early on though.  Fortunately, they are equipped to do just that.  Ronald Acuna is back to full health and could be a legit 40/40 candidate this year.  His Braves teammate Michael Harris joins him in the Jackalope outfield as well.  Like Acuna, the first round pick Harris figures to be an elite power and speed guy.  And then there is Adolis Garcia, giving the Jackalope three outfielders with at least 20/20 HR/SB projections.  If Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy, this should be the best outfield in the league outside of the Mavericks.  On the infield, Paul Goldschmidt is the main returning cog.  There are several new additions here, including Jeremy Pena and Josh Jung, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate.  The infield is unproven compared to the outfield, but there are a bunch of young guys with breakout potential.  It has been a couple disappointing seasons in a row for the Jackalope.  These numbers point to a big turnaround in 2023 though.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 5th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (5th)
  • Wins – 8th (1st)
  • Saves – 7th (7th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (4th)
  • Total Points – 2nd-T (1st)

Summary:

The Moonshiners finally won their first DTBL championship in 2022 thanks to solid contributions throughout the roster.  On the offensive side of things, they didn’t have any single player with eye-popping numbers.  Kyle Tucker was the only Moonshiner in the top 15 of Batting PAR.  But they got very good seasons out of pretty much everybody.  So they will attempt to defend the title with another strong, deep roster that actually has room for improvement on offense.  The infield is particularly deep with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Tim Anderson leading the way.  Amed Rosario and Ryan Mountcastle return after being two key breakout performers from a year ago.  They lost the benefit of Daulton Varsho occupying a catching slot while spending most of his time in the outfield, but replaced him in that spot with MJ Melendez who will likely do the same thing:  play most days in the outfield while holding down a catching spot.  Varsho will still be a valuable contributor for the Moonshiners as well, but will have to do it as an outfielder.  He’s joining an outfield that already has two of the most dynamic players in the game in Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  After a couple straight seasons of excellent work as both a hitter and a pitcher, the Moonshiners had a more complicated decision to make this winter on Ohtani’s position status for ’23.  Ultimately, they opted to leave him in the outfield where he’s been excellent the past three years.  Meanwhile, Tucker is one of only three players (Acuna, Judge) with a 7+ Batting PAR projection for this season.  Part of the reason why the Moonshiners elected to keep Ohtani in the outfield is because they already have arguably the best starting rotation in the league.  Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah and Yu Darvish were three of the top five finishers in Pitching PAR last year, with Verlander taking home the Cy Young award.  Unfortunately, he’ll start this season on the I.L.  Dustin May, Reid Detmers and Jeffrey Springs were all added to the roster in the draft, giving the Moonshiners incredible depth in the rotation.  The bullpen suffered a crushing blow with Edwin Diaz tearing his ACL during a WBC postgame celebration.  This seventh place saves projection was pre-Diaz injury, so they will be hard pressed to not finish near the bottom of the league in saves.  Clay Holmes is probably their best bet to rack up saves.  But Diaz is irreplaceable across all of his numbers.  The Moonshiners certainly have the talent to defend their title.  It just might come in a different manner this time around.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 8th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (10th)
  • Wins – 2nd (7th)
  • Saves – 2nd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (8th)
  • Total Points – 1st (8th)

Summary:

When I first saw these projections, I thought maybe I made a mistake.  How could a team that was among the worst in the league in pitching points last year be far and away the best pitching staff on paper heading into this season?  Well, there are actually a couple credible explanations for this.  First, Jacob deGrom is projected to throw 175 innings this season according to FanGraphs Depth Charts.  That would be 175 more innings than the Darkhorses got from him a year ago.  And on a per inning basis, there is no better starting pitcher in baseball than deGrom.  Of course, you could argue that 175 innings from him is pretty unrealistic since he hasn’t reached that number since 2019.  The other big change is the addition of Spencer Strider to the rotation.  Strider was far and away the best pitcher available in this year’s draft.  So with those two guys in the fold, it is close to a lock the Darkhorses will have a much improved staff.  47 pitching points may be a tad optimistic though.  Strider isn’t the only fireballer joining the rotation.  Hunter Greene was added to the mix as well.  Logan Webb is the key returning rotation piece.  The bullpen being projected to finish second in saves is a product of a lot of unsettled closer situations across the league.  The Darkhorses only have two sure things for saves themselves in Kenley Jansen and Felix Bautista.  Andres Munoz should be a positive contributor out of the pen regardless of how many save opportunities he gets.  Four of the Darkhorses first five draft picks were pitchers.  Combine that with the return of deGrom and the optimistic outlook for the pitching staff starts to make sense.  It is also interesting that a team expected to take a big step back in batting points would still come out on top of the projected standings, but here we are.  Part of that is because of Bryce Harper’s elbow injury recovery, which is baked into these numbers perhaps more pessimistically than recent news would suggest is warranted.  He could be back sooner than later.  And they could use him because no individual hitter has a Batting PAR projection over 4.  Believe it or not, Tommy Edman is the top guy on that list.  He along with Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and Brandon Lowe make up a solid middle infield.  The Darkhorses could use a return to old form from at least one of their third base pair of Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman.  J.T. Realmuto remains one of the best catchers in the game.  Christian Yelich is another guy from whom they could use a bounce back season.  George Springer is the most reliable producer in the outfield.  All in all, this is a very talented roster and a championship would not be terribly surprising.  I would not blame you if you question them being the preseason favorites though.

 

So there you have it.  We’ve previewed the 2023 season for all 10 teams.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

With all the rule changes, it is hard to know exactly what to expect during this 2023 baseball season.  I do expect it to be a lot of fun though.  Good luck to all!

Back To Basics

Tuesday, March 28th, 2023

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After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I’ve seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

Strider’s Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his ’22 minor and major league season.

Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn’t exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn’t have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn’t map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I’m actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!

2022 Season Preview: Part IV

Monday, April 11th, 2022

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We’ve reached the final edition of the 2022 DTBL season preview.  As I’ve been stating every step of the way, this year’s projections show a very tight race from top to bottom.  No team is loaded enough to feel confident about winning the league.  But conversely, every team should like their chances of being a contender.  These top two teams are separated by just a single point and the team slated to finish third (Kings) is just one point behind second.  The full projected standings can be found at the bottom of this post.

As it turns out, the top two projected teams are the same as last year, in the same order.  Obviously, that didn’t prove to mean much a year ago as neither team wound up being a serious title contender, for a variety of reasons.  However, it is a sign that these are two very talented rosters again this year.  One is expected to have a very good pitching staff with a mediocre offense while the other is pegged as the projected batting point leader, but near the bottom of the barrel in pitching.  Here are the pair of teams at the top of the 2022 DTBL projected standings.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
  • Runs Batted In - 3rd (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases - 9th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (3rd)
  • Wins - 7th (8th-T)
  • Saves – 4th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs - 8th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (6th)
  • Total Points - 2nd (5th)

Summary:

Last year, the Darkhorses fell well short in their attempt to defend their 2020 championship.  They were unable to meet expectations with the bats or on the mound, in large part due to several of their best players missing significant time with injuries.  Offensively, not too much has changed with the roster construction as their first five draft picks were all used on pitchers.  There wasn’t much reason to shake things up in the infield.  Joey Votto, Brandon Lowe, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Chapman and Tommy Edman give them above average players at every spot.  J.T. Realmuto might be the best catcher in the league.  With better health and a bounceback from Christian Yelich, the outfield could be excellent as well.  Bryce Harper was easily their best hitter a year ago and probably will be this year too.  A full healthy season from George Springer would be a welcome change from 2021.  The Darkhorses aren’t going to steal as many bases as last season, but they should improve in most of the other offensive categories.  The pitching staff went through a major makeover, but one holdover is the most important piece.  Unfortunately though, Jacob deGrom is expected to miss the first two months of the season with an arm injury.  So he’s not a good bet to reach the 8.8 PAR projection that was from before his prognosis was fully known.  Jose Berrios will be asked to pick up the slack, along with three newcomers:  Logan Webb, Sonny Gray and Adam Wainwright.  The Darkhorses probably can’t afford any of those guys to not pan out.  The save projection of fourth makes sense, but it won’t come the way these projections read as Kenley Jansen was yet to sign with the Braves when these numbers were compiled.  Conversely, Blake Treinein looked likely to be the Dodgers closer when the Darkhorses drafted him, but that changed with the Dodgers trade for Craig Kimbrel.  Taylor Rogers was also traded last week, but possibly to a better situation in San Diego.  Meanwhile, the one reliever whose outlook hasn’t changed at all is Liam Hendriks who remains one of the best closers in the game.  All in all, it is a strong bullpen that should boost the pitching staff as a whole.  The Darkhorses should be a better team across the board in 2022.  Winning their second title in three years is a very reasonable expectation.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs - 1st (5th)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (5th)
  • Runs Scored - 2nd (7th-T)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (2nd)
  • Wins - 3rd (1st-T)
  • Saves – 10th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Points - 1st (3rd)

Summary:

Like the Darkhorses, the Mavericks were unable to meet the lofty pre-season expectations a year ago, in large part due to significant injuries to key players.  None more crippling than losing Mike Trout for a majority of the season.  With Trout, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, the Mavericks have an outfield that simply can’t be matched.  All three of those guys have PAR projections among the best in the league.  So the outfield is already elite, and that’s before even mentioning Eloy Jimenez, who was another player that missed a majority of the season last year, and Nick Castellanos.  The infield may not be quite as good, because how could it be?  That said, Ozzie Albies and Manny Machado are both among the best players in the league at their respective positions.  First round draft pick Jazz Chisholm should provide a boost as well.  They bought low on Yoan Moncada, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Sano, three infielders who have had elite fantasy seasons in the not too distant past.  Yasmani Grandal and Tyler Stephenson form a nice caching duo.  Where things get a little dicey is with the pitching staff, which is a little strange considering how reliable that crew has been for years.  The rotation is led by a pair of Dodger lefties, Clayton Kershaw and Juio Urias.  Jack Flaherty’s shoulder injury is a cause for concern.  Pablo Lopez and Tyler Mahle were unsung heroes a year ago and may need to be again.  Michael Kopech is now a full time starter from the beginning of the season for the first time in his big league career.  There is a lot of intrigue in this group, but also a lot of question marks.  The bullpen is not a strength as they do not currently have any pitchers who are safe bets to rack up a lot of saves.  Andrew Kittredge and Aaron Ashby could be useful contributors depending on how they are utilized by their MLB teams.  It is unlikely the Mavericks will finish far from the bottom in saves.  While it is hard to know what to expect from this pitching staff, it should be good enough to keep them in the mix.  It would be a major surprise if the offense isn’t among the league’s best.  Since winning the league in 2017, the Mavericks have finished between third and sixth each season.  That would seem to be the floor again this year, with the ceiling most definitely being another league title.

 

And with that, we have concluded the preview of the 2022 DTBL season.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to everyone on what should be one of the most competitive seasons we’ve ever seen.  May the best team win!

A Pitcher Takeover

Tuesday, March 29th, 2022

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We are in the midst of the 30th annual DTBL Draft.  With almost three decades of history to draw from, there is a pretty typical pattern in how the first round of the draft plays out.  Normally, a majority of those early picks are young players who made their MLB debut the previous season.  And among those players, the first round tends to skew towards hitters.  Young hitters are generally more projectable than pitchers.  TINSTAAPP (There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect) is a common refrain in baseball for a reason.  Well, you can throw all of that out when analyzing the 2022 DTBL Draft.

For the first time since 2003, a majority of the first round picks were pitchers.  The six starting pitchers taken in the first round was a league record, blowing past the previous high of four.  While these pitchers did skew young, they are not all DTBL rookies and even fewer were MLB rookies last year.  This was truly a first round group of ten that did not resemble any previous year’s new crop.  Perhaps this is a product of the pandemic shortened 2020 season that saw some position players pushed to the majors due to not having minor league opportunities for development, while pitchers were kept on a more conservative path that led to guys who may have otherwise debuted in ’20 being pushed to ’21.  But with many of the pitchers drafted in this first round not actually being MLB rookies, who knows?  Probably just a one year oddity.

The draft started with the Diamond Dogs making their first ever selection after taking over the Beanballers roster.  They chose young right handed starting pitcher Shane Baz.  This was a bit of a surprise, but not because of Baz’s pedigree.  Most MLB prospect rankings that have been released this winter have Baz among the top 15 prospects in the game.  And in most cases, he is the top ranked prospect who has already made his MLB debut.  The Rays hurler, stolen from the Pirates as the third piece of the Chris Archer trade, made his debut in late September.  His three regular season starts were impressive enough to earn him a start in the ALDS as well.  The future is bright for Baz.  Unfortunately for the Diamond Dogs, Baz underwent elbow surgery just days after this selection.  The good news is it wasn’t a career altering elbow surgery like Tommy John, but rather a cleanup procedure that should just keep him out a few weeks.  He will begin his DTBL career on the injured list though.

With the second pick, the Komodos took the guy who most people probably expected to go #1, Baz’s Rays teammate Wander Franco.  The phenom shortstop had been the #1 ranked prospect for several years before making his much anticipated MLB debut in June.  He proceeded to have a very solid season, hitting .288 with seven home runs, earning him a third place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  While he only stole a couple bases in the big leagues last year, speed is certainly part of his game as well.  He has been touted as a true five tool player.  Having just turned 21 earlier this month, he figures to be a fixture in the Komodos infield for a very long time.

While Franco was the most highly touted hitter to debut last year, second baseman Jonathan India was the most productive.  The Jackalope selected him with the third pick.  The Reds infielder hit .269 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 98 runs scored and 12 stolen bases, earning him the National League Rookie of the Year honor.  This marks the fourth straight year that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on an infielder.  This pick feels quite a bit safer than their last similar pick of second baseman Keston Hiura with the fourth pick in 2020.  India should be able to hold down that spot for the foreseeable future.

The Cougars followed with the breakout star of 2021, making outfielder Cedric Mullins the fourth overall pick.  Mullins still has DTBL rookie eligibility, however, this is not his first time on the league roster.  He was added in 2019, but went undrafted and then unsigned in a very forgettable season.  2021, on the other hand, was rather memorable for Mullins.  He became the latest addition to the 30/30 Club, slugging exactly 30 home runs and stealing exactly 30 bases.  The latter wasn’t a huge surprise, but the power seemingly came from nowhere.  He had seven career home runs before last season.  Even if he can’t repeat that feat, he still has enormous fantasy potential because of the power and speed combo that so few possess.

The pitching run began in earnest with the fifth pick that the Demigods used on lefty Robbie Ray.  Ray had a solid run with the Moonshiners from 2017-2019.  But a brutal 2020 knocked him completely out of the league last season.  All he did while away was win the AL Cy Young with a league leading 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 284 strikeouts.  Good call by me removing him from the league roster.  He’s back now and should provide an immediate boost to the Demigods pitching staff.

The Darkhorses selected the pitching breakout star of the year at #6.  Giants righty Logan Webb started his career with a couple mediocre seasons that did not provide much of a hint that he would become the staff ace of one of the best teams in baseball in 2021.  Webb won 11 games with a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched for the Giants last year before becoming a postseason horse with a pair of dominant starts against the Dodgers in the NLDS.  He will play a major role in the Darkhorses retooled rotation that only has two holdovers (Jacob deGrom and Jose Berrios).

The Moonshiners were just a respectable pitching staff away from being a serious championship contender last year.  They attempted to fix that glaring weakness by selecting young Blue Jays hurler Alek Manoah at pick number seven.  Another highly touted prospect, Manoah did not disappoint in his first big league season.  He had a very respectable 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along with nine wins and 127 strikeouts.  Given the Blue Jays offensive firepower, he figures to be a solid candidate to win double digit games along with strong numbers in the other three categories.

We got a brief break from all those pitchers with the Mavericks selecting second baseman Jazz Chisholm with the eighth pick.  Chisholm struggled in his 2020 debut, leaving questions about his ability to hit big league pitching.  Those questions were answered in 2021.  He hit 18 home runs while stealing 23 bases.  Again, that combination of power and speed makes him an exciting fantasy prospect.  Add to that the serious lack of depth at second base right now and you have a player who should be among the league’s best at his position.  The Mavericks had to have been thrilled to add a player like him this late in the first round.

Back to starting pitchers with pick number nine.  The Choppers reacquired a player they had picked up on a whim late in 2020, White Sox righty Dylan Cease.  Cease technically still has DTBL rookie status since he was never placed on the Choppers active roster in 2020.  He was subsequently dropped from the league last year due to his erratic performance in ’20.  He finally harnessed his stuff last year though, with an extremely impressive 226 strikeouts in 165 innings, along with a 3.91 ERA and 13 wins.  Still just 23 years old, Cease has the potential to be one of the league’s premier strikeout pitchers.

Rounding out the first round was yet another pitcher who had a great 2021 campaign.  Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers was never a particularly highly touted prospect.  So his rookie campaign went largely under the radar.  He posted a 2.64 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 133 innings.  That earned him a spot on the NL All-Star roster and a runner-up finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote.  Rogers joins a Kings staff that led the league in pitching points last year, but was looking for another consistent presence behind Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler.  They now have three of the NL East’s best pitchers.

The run on starting pitchers didn’t end in the first round.  Four more were selected in round two and exactly half of the first 22 picks were starting pitchers.  It seems unlikely we will see anything like this in the near future.

2021 Season Preview: Part III

Thursday, April 1st, 2021

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Today is Opening Day!  No, that isn’t an April Fools’ joke.  It is really happening.  Starting today, we will have meaningful baseball to watch nearly every day for the next seven months.  That is a welcome change from this time a year ago when we didn’t know when we would have that opportunity again.  While there is still a great deal of uncertainty heading into the season, at least we should expect this to resemble a normal season far more so than in 2020.

As for the DTBL, the teams that are projected to finish near the top of the standings are not a huge surprise.  Last year, many teams were in the hunt for a the championship for most of the short sprint.  But the two teams that broke away from the pack in the end are expected to be right there again this season.  The third favorite is probably the most star-studded team in the league that had several things go wrong a year ago to derail their championship hunt.  This year’s projected top three happens to be the same three that were tabbed as preseason favorites a year ago, but in the reverse order.  Here are the three projected championship favorites for the 2021 DTBL season.

 

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2020 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (3rd-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Scored - 5th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (3rd-T)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (1st)
  • Wins – 1st (1st)
  • Saves – 7th (7th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 1st-T (1st)
  • Total Points – 3rd (2nd)

Summary:

The Jackalope came close to winning a title a year ago on the strength of the league’s best pitching staff.  But their offense just wasn’t quite good enough to close the deal.  These projections paint a very similar picture heading into 2021.  The starting rotation looks like the best in the league with the Jackalope expected to finish in the top two of every pitching category except for saves.  They have added exciting young fireballer Sixto Sanchez to a group that already contained several of the best pitchers in the game.  Gerrit Cole is a perennial Cy Young contender at this stage of his career.  Luis Castillo, Tyler Glasnow and Dinelson Lamet may not be spoken of in the same terms as Cole, but all are well established fantasy stars.  And Lance Lynn keeps getting better with age.  As intriguing as Sanchez is, he may have a tough time cracking this rotation if it is fully healthy.  The Jackalope bullpen is not quite as strong.  Raisel Iglesias is the only well established closer.  But the rest of the group could be in line for saves at some point, and will add impressive strikeout totals regardless.  That group includes Giovanny Gallegos, Drew Pomeranz and Jake Diekman.  The Jackalope will probably need to beat this eigth place batting points projection to win the title this year.  What was once the league’s best infield in the not so distant past, has fallen off a bit lately.  Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Adalberto Mondesi are back to lead the way.  They used their first round draft pick to bring in shortstop Dansby Swanson.  They will also look to last year’s first rounder, Keston Hiura, to be a bigger factor in 2021.  In the outfield, Ronald Acuna has the highest batting PAR projection in the league, which forecasts an impressive 42 home runs and 30 steals.  Giancarlo Stanton is the returning sidekick.  But the rest of the outfield is new, including Ramon Laureano and Leody Tavares.  With the pitching staff nearly certain to lock up a significant amount of points, the Jackalope will just need a few pleasant surprises on offense to win it all this year.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2020 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored - 2nd (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd-T)
  • Earned Run Average - 2nd (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (7th)
  • Wins - 2nd (5th-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd-T (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st-T (4th-T)
  • Total Points - 2nd (1st)

Summary:

It is not surprising that the defending champions are one of the favorites again this year.  But this is still a very interesting forecast, which seems to indicate a significant change in the Darkhorses strengths and weaknesses.  Last year, they had far and away the best offense in the league with a good, but not great pitching staff.  These projections show them with an elite pitching staff, tied with the Jackalope for most pitching points, but with not quite as strong of an offense.  What makes this even more interesting is that they didn’t have a pitching focused draft at all.  Mike Soroka was the only pitcher selected by the Darkhorses in the first five rounds.  Perhaps it boils down to Jacob deGrom being the most dominant pitcher in the league, according to these numbers.  His 11.3 PAR projection is nearly two full points better than the next highest pitcher.  They could also benefit from better seasons out of Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios and Chris Paddack.  The Darkhorses probably have the best bullpen in the league again this year, thanks to Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand.  Joakim Soria and Hector Neris were solid additions as well who should help boost the save total.  Perhaps the forecasted drop in batting points is a small point of concern, but the Darkhorses still feature an extremely deep lineup.  J.T. Realmuto is probably the best catcher in the league, giving them a huge leg up on most teams at that position.  Third basemen Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman look to bounce back from injury plagued seasons.  Brandon Lowe was one of the breakout stars of ’20.  Xander Bogaerts remains a steady presence at shortstop.  Dominic Smith joins the squad to provide some more power out of the first base position.  The outfield trio of Bryce Harper, George Springer and Christian Yelich is hard to top.  It is actually quite impressive that the Darkhorses were as good as they were last year despite getting so little from Yelich, who should be expected to return to form this year.  This is a very deep roster, top to bottom.  The batting projection seems rather pessimistic.  I would expect the Darkhorses to be one of the teams to beat again this year and a safe bet to finish in a top two spot for what would be an impressive fourth straight season.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2020 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (5th)
  • Home Runs - 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio - 5th (3rd)
  • Wins - 3rd (9th)
  • Saves – 4th (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs - 4th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (6th)
  • Total Points - 1st (5th)

Summary:

I hate to start by raining on a parade, but the Mavericks batting projections may be a tad inflated because of a flaw in my system.  They completed the draft with just one catcher on the roster, a very good one at that.  So their batting numbers are not dragged down by the typical below average output of a pair of catchers like every other team.  Also, they include a full season of Eloy Jimenez, who is now expected to miss most of the season with a pec injury.  So it might be fair to chop off a point here or there on the batting side of things.  That said, this is unquestionably an elite offensive team.  Their Opening Day lineup will likely consist of players with 2+ PAR projections in every slot but two.  Nobody can touch the Mavericks talent in the outfield, in particular, even without Jimenez.  Mike Trout and Juan Soto might be the two best baseball players on the planet.  Aaron Judge isn’t far behind when healthy.  Nick Castellanos is very good as well.  The Mavericks infield has plenty of star power too.  Manny Machado, Ozzie Albies and Javy Baez are all among the top players at their respective positions.  Eric Hosmer should give them more production at first base than they have had in recent years.  Didi Gregorious and Nick Madrigal are nice luxuries as depth middle infielders.  Finally, Yasmani Grandal is one of the top catchers in the league too.  There just aren’t any weaknesses with the Mavericks bats.  The pitching staff is a little less of a certainty, but also has high upside.  Stephen Strasburg missing almost all of 2020 was a major blow, but he should be good to go this year.  Jack Flaherty also had some health issues and was slightly disappointing a year ago.  Clayton Kershaw, on the other hand, had a bit of a career resurgence and once again appears to be a guy the Mavericks can count on to carry the rotation.  They also have a host of other starters with big potential.  The bullpen is a bit of an unknown in terms of save productivity, but could be a plus.  Kenley Jansen is the main guy, as usual.  James Karinchak has potential to be an elite closer.  Jordan Romero figures to be the beneficiary of the Kirby Yates injury for Toronto.  As usual, the Mavericks are one of the top contenders to win the championship.  This year, they are the pre-season favorites.  Can they end a three year streak of slightly disappointing mid-standings finishes?  Pretty good chance, I would say.

 

That wraps up our preview of the ten teams for the 2021 season.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

Good luck to everyone this season.  Let’s hope it is a full, safe and healthy one for all.  Happy Opening Day!

Predictably Unpredictable

Tuesday, March 16th, 2021

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There is no blueprint for how to approach a fantasy baseball draft following a 60 game, pandemic affected season.  How much weight do you put in players’ performances in such a short sample size?  Is it safe to ignore the poor numbers of a veteran player with a long track record of success?  How do you judge a rookie who made his MLB debut after not being able to play in real minor league games for almost a full year?  Can the breakout stars of 2020 be trusted to repeat their performances over the long haul of a full season?  And finally, how do you judge the players who actually contracted and recovered from COVID-19?  Nobody knows the right answers to any of these questions.  And based on the results of the first round of the 2021 DTBL Draft, it would seem there were many different answers among the league’s members.

Going into this draft, I had absolutely no idea what to expect.  Unlike most years, there were hardly any sure-fire first round selections.  Partly because I was the owner of the second pick, I didn’t even bother trying to compile a top ten list like I normally do.  But if I had, I think I can safely say I would have been wrong on close to half of the names.  And outside of the first two picks, I’m not sure I would have correctly pegged any other players with the teams that selected them.  Besides the general unpredictability, the other abnormal theme of the first round was the number of non-DTBL rookies selected.  Four players were chosen who have previous experience on DTBL rosters.  I have complete draft records dating back to 2005.  In the previous 16 years, no more than three non-rookies were selected in any year.  While unusual, this was not terribly surprising since there just wasn’t a lot of time for newcomers to make their mark during the 2020 MLB season.

The one pick in this draft that was definitely not surprising was the first one.  The Komodos selected White Sox young star outfielder Luis Robert.  The five tool phenom hit the ground running with an incredible first month of his big league career, during which he wasn’t only one of the best rookies in the game, but one of the top players as well.  But even Robert comes with some question marks as he really struggled down the stretch, seeing his batting average fall to .233.  He was still just one steal away from a double/double HR/SB season, which would have been more like 25/25 stretched out to a full campaign.  With his power and speed, Robert is a legitimate 40/40 candidate down the road.  HR and SB were already two of the Komodos better categories, so he could help boost them among the top teams in the league in those areas.

The second pick is another player with well above average power and decent speed as well.  The Kings boosted their extremely disappointing offense from a year ago with the selection of outfielder Randy Arozarena.  Arozerana became a breakout star in October, almost singlehandedly leading the Rays offense on the way to the World Series.  While he did seemingly come out of nowhere, he actually started mashing soon after being activated from the COVID-19 list in late August.  He slugged seven homers in September before adding  an incredible 10 more in the Postseason.  Even though he made his MLB debut in 2019, Arozarena actually remains MLB rookie eligible this year since he missed so much time in 2020 recovering from the virus.  For the Kings sake, hopefully he kept up his now famous pushup regimen this offseason.  If so, he could help the Kings rebound from a shockingly disappointing 2020.

With the third pick in the draft, we had a quick throwback to last year’s draft that featured four sons of former DTBL players selected in the first 15 picks.  The Choppers selected third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, 28 years after his father Brian, also a third baseman, played for the Choppers in the inaugural season of the DTBL of 1993.  The elder Hayes played four seasons in this league.  Ke’Bryan figures to stick around much longer.  Known mostly for his slick fielding as a prospect, Hayes burst onto the scene with a .376 average and five home runs in 85 big league at bats.  He has an advanced bat and runs well too, so there is serious five category potential here.  This marks the fourth straight year that the Choppers have selected an infielder with their first pick.  Hayes will join last year’s pick of Pete Alonso to form a strong corner duo for years to come.

So after three picks, this first round didn’t look too dissimilar from previous years.  But things started to change at four.  The Demigods selected veteran outfielder J.D. Martinez, who they had just cut from their roster last month.  I suppose this could be chalked up as a case of seller’s remorse.  Martinez struggled badly a year ago, but this came on the heels of three straight seasons of hitting at least .300 with 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI.  While he’s no youngster at 33, it seems likely that his ’20 campaign was an outlier and a product of a weird season.  Had the Demigods not picked him, some other team surely would have done so relatively early.  The surprise here is that it was the team that just cut him that made the pick.  If you ignore that fact though, Martinez makes all the sense in the world for a Demigods squad that has more than enough talent to contend and could really use his proven bat in the lineup.

The Cougars followed by selecting another non-DTBL rookie.  But this one was more of a technicality as starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is at a completely different place now than he was when the Choppers took a late flier on him as a relief pitcher in 2019.  Burnes fell out of the league last year, but now returns as a starter with huge upside.  He started nine of the 12 games he appeared in last season and put up some impressive numbers.  He had a 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 60 innings.  This is the second straight year the Cougars have used the fifth overall pick on a starting pitcher who had fallen off the league roster the previous year.  Worked out pretty well with Lucas Giolito.  Those two should help the Cougars improve upon a rotation which somewhat held them back from being contenders a year ago.

Jo Adell entered 2020 as one of the top prospects in baseball, but probably not quite ready for the majors.  The lack of a minor league season probably prevented him from that last bit of development time he could have used before making his debut.  Instead, he was thrown into the fire with the Angels for a bulk of the season.  It did not go well.  He hit just .161 and struck out in over 40% of his plate appearances.  He is flying under the radar this spring, in large part because he lost rookie eligibility and is thus not being discussed in prospect rankings.  But he is still very much a coveted prospect with great power and speed tools.  If he can improve the hit tool, he has a chance to be a star.  He will likely start this season in the minors though.  But that did not prevent the Mavericks from selecting him with the sixth pick.  This is a luxury the Mavericks could afford with their absolutely loaded roster, particularly in the outfield.  They don’t really need anything from Adell to be a contender this season.  But the enormous upside was too much to pass up.

The next pick was another player with an uncertain role this season.  The Beanballers selected Dodgers pitcher Dustin May with the sixth pick.  May is also not a DTBL rookie.  He was picked in the sixth round by the Mavericks last year.  But not having a firm grasp on a rotation spot heading into the season made him expendable.  The Beanballers were willing to gamble on the talent.  Even if he isn’t able to crack the Dodgers rotation to start the season, it would be surprising if he didn’t get plenty of opportunities sooner than later.  May did start 10 games a year ago and had an excellent 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  If he can improve on his strikeout rate, he has top of the rotation potential.  The Beanballers could definitely use a big season from him this year as they bide their time before Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery.

With the eighth pick, the Moonshiners went a more traditional route, taking a rookie who made a strong impression in his debut.  Orioles outfielder Ryan Mountcastle put up numbers very similar to Hayes.  He hit .333 with five home runs in 140 plate appearances.  Mountcastle was a consistently strong hitter in the Orioles farm system for five full years before he finally got his opportunity in the big leagues last season.  He was the fifth outfielder selected in the first round.  Mountcastle should help shore up a Moonshiners offense that was below average a year ago and an outfield that should be much improved with Kyle Tucker quietly becoming a fantasy star and Shohei Ohtani returning to the offensive side of things this year.

Next, the Jackalope selected shortstop Dansby Swanson, who has had a very interesting four year DTBL career.  This is the fourth time he has been drafted, by four different teams.  He has never spent consecutive seasons on the same roster.  Originally a second round pick of the Naturals in 2017, this was his first time as a first rounder.  Swanson is coming off a career year in which he hit 10 homers with 35 RBI in a shortened season.  He was a solid contributor to the championship winning Darkhorses, but was squeezed out with their deep roster.  The Jackalope were happy to add him to their infield, which was mildly disappointing a year ago.  Their offense will feature six of their former first round picks this season.  Even a minor improvement to that offense should put them in strong contention for a title.

Finally, the defending champion Darkhorses closed out the first round by selecting another young slugger who made the most of the shortened season, but also enters 2021 with a somewhat unsettled role.  First baseman Dominic Smith was the final pick of the first round.  Smith made his MLB debut in 2017, but is still just 25 years old.  Last season, he hit .316 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI.  With Pete Alonso firmly entrenched at first base for the Mets and the designated hitter not being in play in the NL this year, Smith figures to see a bulk of his time in the outfield.  If he gets semi regular playing time, he could be a monster offensive force for a team that is already the best team in the league with the bats.  Immediately following the selection of Smith, eight of the Darkhorses ten hitters were players who hit double digit home runs a year ago.  And that doesn’t even include Alex Bregman, who is only a year removed from hitting 40.  This is a truly scary offense.

Half of the first round picks were outfielders and another could move there a year from now.  Meanwhile, only two pitchers were selected in the first ten picks.  This was despite much more league roster shuffling among hurlers than hitters.  It will be interesting to see which strategies pay off following a very unusual 2020.