DTBL News

Category: Demigods

  • 2022 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images We're two days into the 2022 season.  Not surprisingly, with most teams running their top pitchers out there for their first game or two, pitchers seem to have the upper hand so far.  In this next installment of the season preview series, we'll take a look a three more teams that are projected to finish with nearly identical point totals.  What perhaps gives these teams a small leg up on the squads covered previously is that none of them are slated to finish near the bottom of the league in batting or pitching points.  That doesn't mean they are without holes though.  No team can make that claim coming into this season.  Here we have a pair of strong hitting teams with reasonable expectations to have their best finish ever and a defending champion who hasn't finished in the middle of the pack in almost a decade.  Here are the team's projected to finish in the third through fifth positions of the final standings.

     

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 6th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th-T)

    • Stolen Bases - 4th (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (10th)

    • Wins - 1st (6th-T)

    • Saves - 5th (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd-T (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (10th)

    • Total Points - 5th (9th)

    Summary:

    Since joining the league in 2018, the Komodos have been looking to make their first run up the standings, having yet to finish higher than eighth place.  This could be the year they do it.  They have had a pretty strong offensive squad for a while now, but the pitching staff has been an anchor.  While these projections don't show the pitching to be among the league's best, it does show signs of improvement.  Let's start with their strong batting lineup though.  In the past two drafts, the Komodos have been able to add a pair of the most dynamic young stars of the game in outfielder Luis Robert and shortstop Wander Franco.  Robert's injury early last season set the Komodos back, but his return for the final two months launched the upward trajectory of this team.  If he can stay healthy for a full season this time around, he could be a MVP candidate.  Speaking of MVP candidates, Jose Ramirez has annually become one of those.  This year should be no exception.  He has probably become the most consistent producer of both home runs and stolen bases in the entire league.  Franco joins Corey Seager to give the Komodos an enviable shortstop duo.  The ageless Nelson Cruz moves over to first base for this first time in his DTBL career after playing in the field for the first time since 2018 for a single game last year.  That shouldn't be a problem for the Komodos though, as they were a little thin at that position anyway.  Yordan Alvarez and Starling Marte are the other stars of the outfield besides Robert.  An important player for this team will be Cody Bellinger, who has struggled mightily for a couple years since finishing third in the MVP race in 2019.  Walker Buehler has been carrying the Komodos pitching staff for years.  He might have some help now.  Young lefty Shane McClanahan was a very nice second round pickup.  Veteran Nathan Eovaldi is a reliable contributor as well.  A pair of Astros pitchers, Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia, provide solid depth to the rotation.  The bullpen looks very good as well, and got a boost last week when Craig Kimbrel was traded to the Dodgers.  These projections don't account for the fact that he should be a safe bet for a large save total.  Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon make it very likely the Komodos will finish near the top of the league in saves.  This is the highest the Komodos have been projected to finish since they joined the league.  And looking at the roster, that checks out.  This is their strongest squad yet.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (4th)

    • Home Runs - 8th (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (6th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 5th (7th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (7th)

    • Wins - 9th (3rd)

    • Saves - 7th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd-T (4th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 6th (7th)

    • Total Points - 4th (6th)

    Summary:

    The Demigods were a better team last year than their sixth place finish might have indicated.  Unfortunately, one of the reasons why they fell short of expectations may be playing out again this year.  Their best player, Fernando Tatis Jr, missed time during two stretches with a shoulder injury, yet still managed to finish in the top five in Batting PAR.  This year, they will be without Tatis for a quite a while with him recovering from a broken wrist.  Wrist injuries have a history of sapping players of power even when they do return.  So that's not great for the Demigods.  On a positive note though, this team has plenty of other great hitters.  Freddie Freeman moves to Los Angeles where he will be a key cog in the Dodgers juggernaut lineup, which also contains Demigods third baseman Justin Turner.  C.J. Cron, Jose Altuve, Francisco Lindor and Josh Donaldson join them to form what might be the league's deepest infield.  If you include catchers in that, their standing is even stronger as Willson Contreras and Mitch Garver are among the best catching duos.  The outfield doesn't have quite as much depth, but there is upside there.  People say this every year, but, if Byron Buxton can just stay healthy, he could be one of the best players in the game.  Ketel Marte, J.D. Martinez and Austin Meadows are all solid contributors.  While the Demigods may not be elite in the power categories, they are likely to finish near the top in batting average, runs and stolen bases.  On the pitching front, the rotation welcomes AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray who has the benefit of no longer pitching in the AL East, as he signed with the Mariners this winter.  Freddy Peralta jumps from the bullpen to a rotation spot.  Aaron Nola, Max Fried and Joe Musgrove return to give the Demigods a full rotation of five pitchers with PAR projections north of 4.  They are the only team in the league that can make that claim.  The past two years, the Demigods have completely punted the saves category, recording a grand total of 18 over two seasons.  That included two of the three lowest team save totals in league history.  This figures to change this year with Gregory Soto likely to be the Tigers closer, David Bednar in the mix for the Pirates and Diego Castillo and Ken Giles both among the Mariners committee approach.  The bullpen is still a weakness for the Demigods, but might actually earn them a couple points this year.  The Demigods have an excellent shot at finishing in the top half for the first time since 2018 and could even win the whole thing for the first time if things break their way.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (8th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (1st)

    • Runs Scored - 5th (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (1st)

    • Wins - 4th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 8th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 5th (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 5th (2nd-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (1st)

    • Total Points - 3rd (1st)

    Summary:

    Since I never got around to writing a championship article for the 2021 Kings, let me quickly sum it up here.  They were not a vintage championship squad.  They took advantage of competition that was weakened due to injuries and other unfortunate circumstances.  The Kings were by far the least affected team among the title contenders in those areas last season.  Will they be so lucky again this year?  Well, they are the only team in the entire league that is projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  So on solid balance alone, they ought to have a shot.  The Kings surprisingly led the league in the power categories a year ago.  Don't expect a repeat of that.  The offense is pretty solid across the board though.  The infield is led by three guys who changed MLB uniforms this off-season:  Matt Olson, Marcus Semien and Carlos Correa.  The breakout of third baseman Austin Riley was a key to the Kings title run.  Josh Bell is the main addition here, in quest of holding onto the power category leads.  Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game, and hasn't slapped anyone recently, as far as I know.  Another major figure in the Kings '21 breakthrough was outfielder Tyler O'Neil, who they picked up as an undrafted free agent early in the season.  He and Mookie Betts have the Kings highest batting PAR projections.  Randy Arozarena, A.J. Pollock and Dylan Carlson join them to make up a very good outfield.  The Kings easily led the league in pitching points last year.  That will be tough to duplicate.  However, they used their first round pick on Trevor Rogers to provide support to Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler and Frankie Montas.  At some point, you have to figure Scherzer will slow down.  He has held a spot as one of baseball's best pitchers for basically a decade straight now.  Wheeler appears ready to take the reigns as the staff ace if necessary though.  This is still a very strong rotation, but perhaps not as deep as a few other teams.  The bullpen is not great, as they have been scraping by without any elite closers for several years now.  Not one of their relievers is on firm ground as a closer.  Matt Barnes and Camilo Doval are the most likely to get saves.  Paul Sewald figures to give them a boost in other categories.  The past seven years, the roller coaster Kings have either finished in a bottom two spot or won the league every time.  So will this version be a bottom feeder or a champion?  There seems to be no other possibility.

  • A Pitcher Takeover

    Embed from Getty Images We are in the midst of the 30th annual DTBL Draft.  With almost three decades of history to draw from, there is a pretty typical pattern in how the first round of the draft plays out.  Normally, a majority of those early picks are young players who made their MLB debut the previous season.  And among those players, the first round tends to skew towards hitters.  Young hitters are generally more projectable than pitchers.  TINSTAAPP (There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect) is a common refrain in baseball for a reason.  Well, you can throw all of that out when analyzing the 2022 DTBL Draft.

    For the first time since 2003, a majority of the first round picks were pitchers.  The six starting pitchers taken in the first round was a league record, blowing past the previous high of four.  While these pitchers did skew young, they are not all DTBL rookies and even fewer were MLB rookies last year.  This was truly a first round group of ten that did not resemble any previous year's new crop.  Perhaps this is a product of the pandemic shortened 2020 season that saw some position players pushed to the majors due to not having minor league opportunities for development, while pitchers were kept on a more conservative path that led to guys who may have otherwise debuted in '20 being pushed to '21.  But with many of the pitchers drafted in this first round not actually being MLB rookies, who knows?  Probably just a one year oddity.

    The draft started with the Diamond Dogs making their first ever selection after taking over the Beanballers roster.  They chose young right handed starting pitcher Shane Baz.  This was a bit of a surprise, but not because of Baz's pedigree.  Most MLB prospect rankings that have been released this winter have Baz among the top 15 prospects in the game.  And in most cases, he is the top ranked prospect who has already made his MLB debut.  The Rays hurler, stolen from the Pirates as the third piece of the Chris Archer trade, made his debut in late September.  His three regular season starts were impressive enough to earn him a start in the ALDS as well.  The future is bright for Baz.  Unfortunately for the Diamond Dogs, Baz underwent elbow surgery just days after this selection.  The good news is it wasn't a career altering elbow surgery like Tommy John, but rather a cleanup procedure that should just keep him out a few weeks.  He will begin his DTBL career on the injured list though.

    With the second pick, the Komodos took the guy who most people probably expected to go #1, Baz's Rays teammate Wander Franco.  The phenom shortstop had been the #1 ranked prospect for several years before making his much anticipated MLB debut in June.  He proceeded to have a very solid season, hitting .288 with seven home runs, earning him a third place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  While he only stole a couple bases in the big leagues last year, speed is certainly part of his game as well.  He has been touted as a true five tool player.  Having just turned 21 earlier this month, he figures to be a fixture in the Komodos infield for a very long time.

    While Franco was the most highly touted hitter to debut last year, second baseman Jonathan India was the most productive.  The Jackalope selected him with the third pick.  The Reds infielder hit .269 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 98 runs scored and 12 stolen bases, earning him the National League Rookie of the Year honor.  This marks the fourth straight year that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on an infielder.  This pick feels quite a bit safer than their last similar pick of second baseman Keston Hiura with the fourth pick in 2020.  India should be able to hold down that spot for the foreseeable future.

    The Cougars followed with the breakout star of 2021, making outfielder Cedric Mullins the fourth overall pick.  Mullins still has DTBL rookie eligibility, however, this is not his first time on the league roster.  He was added in 2019, but went undrafted and then unsigned in a very forgettable season.  2021, on the other hand, was rather memorable for Mullins.  He became the latest addition to the 30/30 Club, slugging exactly 30 home runs and stealing exactly 30 bases.  The latter wasn't a huge surprise, but the power seemingly came from nowhere.  He had seven career home runs before last season.  Even if he can't repeat that feat, he still has enormous fantasy potential because of the power and speed combo that so few possess.

    The pitching run began in earnest with the fifth pick that the Demigods used on lefty Robbie Ray.  Ray had a solid run with the Moonshiners from 2017-2019.  But a brutal 2020 knocked him completely out of the league last season.  All he did while away was win the AL Cy Young with a league leading 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 284 strikeouts.  Good call by me removing him from the league roster.  He's back now and should provide an immediate boost to the Demigods pitching staff.

    The Darkhorses selected the pitching breakout star of the year at #6.  Giants righty Logan Webb started his career with a couple mediocre seasons that did not provide much of a hint that he would become the staff ace of one of the best teams in baseball in 2021.  Webb won 11 games with a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched for the Giants last year before becoming a postseason horse with a pair of dominant starts against the Dodgers in the NLDS.  He will play a major role in the Darkhorses retooled rotation that only has two holdovers (Jacob deGrom and Jose Berrios).

    The Moonshiners were just a respectable pitching staff away from being a serious championship contender last year.  They attempted to fix that glaring weakness by selecting young Blue Jays hurler Alek Manoah at pick number seven.  Another highly touted prospect, Manoah did not disappoint in his first big league season.  He had a very respectable 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along with nine wins and 127 strikeouts.  Given the Blue Jays offensive firepower, he figures to be a solid candidate to win double digit games along with strong numbers in the other three categories.

    We got a brief break from all those pitchers with the Mavericks selecting second baseman Jazz Chisholm with the eighth pick.  Chisholm struggled in his 2020 debut, leaving questions about his ability to hit big league pitching.  Those questions were answered in 2021.  He hit 18 home runs while stealing 23 bases.  Again, that combination of power and speed makes him an exciting fantasy prospect.  Add to that the serious lack of depth at second base right now and you have a player who should be among the league's best at his position.  The Mavericks had to have been thrilled to add a player like him this late in the first round.

    Back to starting pitchers with pick number nine.  The Choppers reacquired a player they had picked up on a whim late in 2020, White Sox righty Dylan Cease.  Cease technically still has DTBL rookie status since he was never placed on the Choppers active roster in 2020.  He was subsequently dropped from the league last year due to his erratic performance in '20.  He finally harnessed his stuff last year though, with an extremely impressive 226 strikeouts in 165 innings, along with a 3.91 ERA and 13 wins.  Still just 23 years old, Cease has the potential to be one of the league's premier strikeout pitchers.

    Rounding out the first round was yet another pitcher who had a great 2021 campaign.  Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers was never a particularly highly touted prospect.  So his rookie campaign went largely under the radar.  He posted a 2.64 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 133 innings.  That earned him a spot on the NL All-Star roster and a runner-up finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote.  Rogers joins a Kings staff that led the league in pitching points last year, but was looking for another consistent presence behind Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler.  They now have three of the NL East's best pitchers.

    The run on starting pitchers didn't end in the first round.  Four more were selected in round two and exactly half of the first 22 picks were starting pitchers.  It seems unlikely we will see anything like this in the near future.

  • Peralta Nabs Rookie Honor

    Embed from Getty Images
    For as long as this league has existed, teams have employed the strategy of using real life starting pitchers who qualify as relievers in relief pitcher slots to attempt to gain an advantage in the wins and strikeout categories.  Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not.  There is usually a price to be paid in the ERA and WHIP categories when an additional, sometimes marginal starting pitcher is utilized.  But when that extra starter is an All-Star caliber pitcher, the calculus changes quite dramatically and it becomes a huge boon to a pitching staff.  The Demigods took a chance on Freddy Peralta in the eighth round of this spring’s draft, and boy did it pay off.  He is the 2021 DTBL Rookie of the Year.  This is the second straight year the award has been won by a Demigod, following Fernando Tatis Jr. a year ago.

    Peralta struck out 195 batters, which was almost twice as many as any other DTBL reliever recorded and was a single season league record for a pitcher occupying a reliever slot, just surpassing Chris Sale’s breakout season of 2012 in which he pitched almost 50 more innings than Peralta did this year.  Peralta won 10 games, which may not seem especially impressive, but in today’s suppressed starting pitcher win environment, it was another nice bump for the Demigods.  The last DTBL reliever to win more games than that was Josh Collmenter in 2014.  The real risk of using starters as relievers is the damage they could do to ERA and WHIP.  But Peralta was elite in those categories as well, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.  In total, he accumulated 6.85 PAR to lead the Demigods staff.  Usually, its a bad sign if a reliver leads a team in pitching PAR.  But in this case, Peralta was a legitimate ace.  That PAR total was tops among DTBL rookies as well.  I do not have complete awards records prior to 2005. But in the years since, Peralta is the first DTBL designated relief pitcher to win Rookie of the Year.

    It is probably safe to call the selection of Peralta in the eighth round a steal for the Demigods, even with him moving to a starting pitcher slot next year.  He was not enough to boost the Demigods into contention this year, but combining him with Max Fried, Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove does give them a solid foundation on which to build.  The Demigods back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, Peralta and Tatis, may have arrived with different pedigrees:  Tatis was the first overall pick in the draft while Peralta was taken 74th.  But both should be huge figures in the team’s future.

    Peralta did have strong competition for this award.  Of the nine ballots cast, Peralta was the first choice on seven of them.  The other two ballots had him second, for a total of 84 points.  That gave him the award by a comfortable margin.  Finishing second was Beanballers hurler Chris Bassitt, who might have won this award had he not suffered a gruesome injury when he was hit in the face with a line drive in August and missed most of the remainder of the season.  Bassitt won 12 games with a 3.15 ERA.  He did not receive any first place votes, but was the consensus runner up with five second place votes and 48 total points.  Just behind him was Moonshiners outfielder Ryan Mountcastle who led all DTBL rookies with 33 home runs.  The Moonshiners first round selection received the two first place tallies that didn’t go to Peralta and appeared on all nine ballots for a 43 point total.  The third and final player to appear on every ballot was Kings outfielder Randy Arozarena.  The 2020 Postseason breakout star and 2021 American League Rookie of the Year validated his status as the second overall pick in the draft with a 20/20 season.  He had exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases.  Arozarena received one second place vote and a slew of third through fifths for 37 points.  Rounding out the top five is Mavericks starting pitcher Tyler Mahle.  He led DTBL rookies with 13 wins and 197 strikeouts.  He was a great find for the Mavericks in the sixth round and helped save a staff ravaged by injuries.  Mahle tallied 14 points in finishing fifth.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    After going months without posting a blog entry, I’m going to try to cram three in consecutive days.  The plan is to announce the Cy Young winner tomorrow and MVP on Wednesday.  Stay tuned!

  • A Sticky Situation

    Embed from Getty Images Oh, hey!  It only took me two and a half months to write my first in-season post!  Obviously, I'm not going to be doing the monthly awards posts this season, but I will try to get back into a more regular writing schedule as the summer progresses.  It certainly hasn't been a lack of potential content that has kept me away.  From the seemingly daily no-hitters of the spring, a rash of injuries like we've never seen before, the nose-dive in scoring across the league and now the pending implementation of punishment to pitchers caught doctoring balls, it's been a pretty compelling 11 weeks.

    I will list all of the weekly and monthly batter and pitcher honors that have been accumulated so far this season at the bottom of this article.  But first, let's take a look at the leaguewide statistical trends, how they may have played a role into MLB's decision to crack down on pitcher's foreign substance use, and what effect that enforcement may have moving forward.

    Since I will be using PAR numbers throughout this analysis, I should explain the slight differences in how these numbers are being calculated this year compared to years past.  Usually, the constants that make up the PAR formula are determined by taking the previous five seasons data.  So for our last normal full season of 2019, during the season, PAR was calculated using numbers from 2014-2018.  Then when the season ends, I do an across-the-board adjustment to include the recently completed season and remove the earliest season from the set.  So the post-2019 update included numbers from 2015-2019.  Those were also the numbers used during the shortened 2020 campaign.  The difference being that I did not perform a post-season update after last season.  Due to the extremely unusual nature of the '20 season, I decided to exclude its season totals from my calculations, not only for 2020, but moving forward as well.  So heading into this season, I'm still using that same set of numbers from 2015-2019 to calculate PAR in 2021.  When the season ends, the adjustment will be to lump in 2021 and remove 2015, making the included years 2016-2019 and 2021.  Usually, the post-season adjustment has a very minor impact on the numbers.  However, I suspect the impact will be much greater this year, because unless things change dramatically over the next few months, the 2021 season totals won't look anything like those from 2015.

    As things stand today, PAR paints a pretty clear picture of what is going on in baseball in 2021.  Across the league, hitters have combined to accumulate just 14.57 PAR.  That is setting a full season pace well under 40 PAR.  Hitters accumulated 69 PAR last year in just a 60 game season.  The record for lowest total batting PAR for a 162 game season is 141 in 2014.  As mentioned in the previous paragraph, this year's numbers will be adjusted after the season, which will certainly cause batting PAR numbers to increase.  But this is staggering stuff.  Compared to recent seasons, hitters are simply not putting up anywhere near the normal level of offensive production.  Meanwhile, pitchers have already accumulated 126 PAR and are on pace for around 300 for the season, well above the expected total of 225.

    JUNE 21 ADDENDUM:

    In retrospect, quoting mid-week leaguewide PAR numbers may have been a tad misleading.  One part of the PAR formula for all of the counting categories is number of weeks a player has spent on the active roster (as a ratio over 26, the total number of weeks in the season).  This value is incremented at the beginning of the week, causing the threshold needed to reach replacement level to increase in those categories.  I figured we were far enough into the season for this to be of little consequence.  And that is generally true for individual players, but not when looking at the league as a whole.  Following the completion of the past week, hitters have now accumulated a total of 42.74 batting PAR.  That's still well below normal and on pace to break the full season futility record.  But not to the same degree as the 14.57 number I mentioned above.  Another factor I neglected to mention is that the abundance of injuries to position players so far this season has caused far more teams to have injured players occupying active roster spots than we would typically see at this point in the season.  And players who accumulate no stats will see their PAR numbers drop like a rock.  So there are some other factors besides the reduced offensive environment that are causing these low batting PAR totals this season.

    END OF ADDENDUM

    Interestingly, the league batting average of .257 is actually up a tick from last year, but still well below the the .267 number from 2019.  It is the rest of the offensive categories that have cratered.  We are on pace for 2,840 home runs to be hit.  That would be almost 700 fewer than 2019.  Runs scored and RBIs are down more than 10% from two seasons ago.  On the pitching side, the league WHIP of 1.124 would be a record low, by a considerable margin.  ERA is down almost 0.4 points from two seasons ago.  And the strikeout record is likely to be broken once again this year.  What's happening this year isn't exactly a continuation of the three true outcome (home runs, walks, strikeouts) revolution of recent seasons.  Only one of those outcomes is continuing to increase:  strikeouts.  Which means pitchers are getting the upper hand like never before.

    Enter the sticky substance debate.  I think it is pretty clear at this point that the prevalence of pitchers using sticky substances has had a significant impact on the game, and most would agree that the fewer balls in play it has seemingly caused is not a good thing.  So a crackdown on this is appropriate and long overdue.  The issue is the manner in which it is being implemented and the timing.  It certainly would have been more logical to start this enforcement of the rules at the beginning of the season, or maybe wait until next year.  And perhaps some compromises could have been made on what substances are and are not allowed.  We will have to wait and see if the unintended consequences are severe (see Glasnow, Tyler).  And we will also have to wait and see how dramatic of an impact it has across the game.  However, I am hopeful that the intended consequences of increased offense will materialize and kill any thoughts of more drastic rule changes like moving the pitcher's mound further from the plate.  So put me down as being in favor of the crackdown, but not the timing or manner in which it is being implemented.

    Now here's a list of players who have excelled so far this season in spite of, or maybe because of, the foreign substance boom.  As usual, these are strictly determined by who had the highest PAR total for a given week or month.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/1 - 4/4) - Nick Castellanos, Mavericks Week 2 (4/5 - 4/11) - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope Week 3 (4/12 - 4/18) - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope Week 4 (4/19 - 4/25) - Fernando Tatis, Demigods Week 5 (4/26 - 5/2) - Kris Bryant, Cougars Week 6 (5/3 - 5/9) - Yordan Alvarez, Komodos Week 7 (5/10 - 5/16) - Aaron Judge, Mavericks Week 8 (5/17 - 5/23) - Fernando Tatis, Demigods Week 9 (5/24 - 5/30) - Fernando Tatis, Demigods Week 10 (5/31 - 6/6) - Ryan Mountcastle, Moonshiners Week 11 (6/7 - 6/13) - Bo Bichette, Beanballers

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/1 - 4/4) - Zack Wheeler, Kings Week 2 (4/5 - 4/11) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks Week 3 (4/12 - 4/18) - Shane Bieber, Choppers Week 4 (4/19 - 4/25) - Brandon Woodruff, Choppers Week 5 (4/26 - 5/2) - Zack Wheeler, Kings Week 6 (5/3 - 5/9) - John Means, Beanballers Week 7 (5/10 - 5/16) - Freddy Peralta, Demigods Week 8 (5/17 - 5/23) - Zack Wheeler, Kings Week 9 (5/24 - 5/30) - Brandon Woodruff, Choppers Week 10 (5/31 - 6/6) - Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses Week 11 (6/7 - 6/13) - Zach Davies, Beanballers

    Quite a list of stars on the hitting side, including two players who won back-to-back weekly honors.  Unsurprisingly, they parlayed those weeks into monthly honors as well.  Zack Wheeler has won the weekly pitcher award three times, with Brandon Woodruff adding a pair.  Surprisingly, league Pitching PAR leader Jacob deGrom only has one weekly honor so far.

    April Batter of the Month:

    Ronald Acuna, Jackalope .341 AVG, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 25 R, 3 SB, 2.10 PAR

    April Pitcher of the Month:

    Gerrit Cole, Jackalope 1.43 ERA, 0.717 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 62 K, 4.41 PAR

    May Batter of the Month:

    Fernando Tatis, Demigods .353 AVG, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 21 R, 8 SB, 3.01 PAR

    May Pitcher of the Month:

    Kevin Gausman, Cougars 0.73 ERA, 0.757 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 49 K, 4.67 PAR

    Not sure any player in baseball is having a more under the radar stellar campaign than Kevin Gausman.  He is right on deGrom's heels for the PAR lead.  Two of the previous three first overall draft picks, Ronald Acuna and Fernando Tatis, are off to tremendous starts as well.  They are third and first in Batting PAR, respectively.  In between them is Moonshiners first baseman Vladimir Guerrero, who surprisingly does not appear anywhere above.

  • 2021 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images I'm not going to post the full projected standings until all ten teams have been revealed, but here is a spoiler alert:  there is a pretty wide point gap between the top and bottom half of the standings.  Usually, I like to bucket the teams with similar point projections into the same preview article.  But the three way tie for seventh place made that a little tough to do.  The first team that will be covered in this piece is only one point ahead of those teams.  Meanwhile, this article will cover yet another projected tie, with a pair of teams picked to finish in fourth place.  Those teams are a full 16 points clear of sixth place.  The three teams covered here feature a little more roster balance than those slated to finish below them.  However, they are not fully loaded teams on paper.  One of these squads had a very disappointing 2020 season, another had promise but faded to the bottom half, while the third would like to build on the momentum built in the shortened campaign.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fourth through sixth places.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2020 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 2nd (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 4th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 10th (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (9th)

    • Wins - 6th (8th)

    • Saves - 6th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 6th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (9th)

    • Total Points - 6th (9th)

    Summary:

    Last year's Kings title defense was one of the worst this league has ever seen, perhaps only challenged by the 2017 Kings who also finished in ninth place the year after winning the title.  But in 2020, the Kings were a two-time defending champ that stumbled to its fewest standings points since 2009 and second worst total since the league expanded to six teams.  The total collapse of the offense was especially shocking.  But these projections show some major improvements there, particularly in the power department.  First round pick Randy Arozarena will try to give Mookie Betts some help in a depleted outfield.  Betts has been carrying this offense for years and remains one of the best players in the league.  Besides Betts and Arozarena though, the only other hitter with a 4+ PAR projection is first baseman Matt Olson, who can't possibly hit below the Mendoza line again, can he?  The Kings could really use more from infielders Carlos Correa, Rhys Hoskins and Mike Moustakas as well.  A bunch of old friends are back in the fold for the Kings as they used draft picks to reacquire outfielder A.J. Pollock, second baseman Ryan McMahon and pitcher Marcus Stroman.  Late bloomer Mike Yastrzemski and bright newcomer Dylan Carlson were also nice additions to the outfield.  The pitching staff looks nothing like the group that helped win three of the past five titles.  The reliable veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander is now just Scherzer.  Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers, Zack Wheeler and Ian Anderson all have intriguing upside, but also very large shoes to fill.  One of those four will need to ascend to elite status for the Kings pitching staff to return to respectability.  Stroman is another steady veteran presence for the rotation, but he hasn't pitched in a real game since 2019.  The bullpen is almost entirely new, but lacking certainty in closer roles.  Richard Rodriguez, Matt Barnes and Amir Garrett all offer potential in that category though.  The Kings will have a lot to overcome to prove that last season was a fluke.  But their recent track record of yo-yoing between the top and bottom of the standings could bode well for them.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2020 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (4th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (5th)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (4th)

    • Wins - 4th (2nd-T)

    • Saves - 10th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (4th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (4th-T)

    • Total Points - 4th-T (7th)

    Summary:

    The Demigods were much better than their seventh place finish might have indicated a year ago.  They were an above average team in almost all facets and finished with a point total that would have put them in the top half of the standings virtually any other season.  So 2020 was definitely a step in the right direction after a dreadful 2019.  And these numbers show a glimmer of hope for further improvement.  Most notably, their third place projection in home runs would be welcomed after finishing dead last in '20.  It is not really any new additions that are causing that though, but rather an anticipated return to form for players like J.D. Martinez, who they cut in February and then redrafted this month.  Six hitters are projected for at least 30 home runs:  Martinez, reigning co-MVP Fernando Tatis Jr., Freddie Freeman, Francisco Lindor, Byron Buxton and C.J. Cron.  Tatis is clearly the headliner and a likely MVP candidate again this season.  Josh Bell, Jose Altuve and Austin Meadows are bounceback candidates.  Wil Myers quietly returned to solid contributor status last season.  The Demigods probably have one of the best catching tandems with Travis d'Arnaud joining Willson Contreras.  This is a very strong group of hitters, from top to bottom.  The second place batting projection makes sense.  Where they will need to exceed expectations is on the pitching side.  Aaron Nola remains the staff ace and a safe bet to put up very strong numbers again this season.  Zac Gallen's health is an immediate concern, although the worst case scenario seems to have been avoided for now.  If healthy, he has star potential as well.  A return to health for Corey Kluber would be a major blessing for the Demigods who haven't been the same without him for most of the past couple seasons.  Veteran Kenta Maeda was a legit Cy Young contender a year ago.  Max Fried is the one youngster in the rotation with untapped potential.  It appears the Demigods will once again punt the saves category.  Last year, they recorded just six of them all season.  Some combination of Rafael Montero, Chris Martin and Matt Wisler should put them ahead of that mark this year, but still likely to finish at or near the bottom.  Freddy Peralta starting the season in the Brewers rotation gives them a potential wild card though.  This is a very solid Demigods squad.  It would not be surprising to see them contend this season.

     

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2020 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (7th)

    • Home Runs - 5th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (6th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (4th)

    • Stolen Bases - 4th (8th-T)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (5th)

    • Wins - 7th (2nd-T)

    • Saves - 1st (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (2nd)

    • Total Batting Points - 5th (7th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (2nd)

    • Total Points - 4th-T (3rd)

    Summary:

    Besides the champion Darkhorses, perhaps no team had a more positive 2020 season than the Moonshiners who posted their highest finish since 2011.  That was mostly accomplished on the strength of their pitching staff.  While the pitchers are probably still ahead of the hitters, this does appear to be a more balanced squad this season.  I doubt many people would be able to correctly guess who is the Moonshiners projected batting PAR leader for this season.  If you guessed outfielder Kyle Tucker, congratulations!  Tucker is a very strong candidate for breakout star of 2021.  He has immense power and speed projectability.  Most of the other stars of the Moonshiners offense are hulking sluggers, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Miguel Sano, Max Muncy and Rafael Devers.  But Tucker isn't the only strong hitter and runner.  Shortstop Tim Anderson can also contribute in all five categories.  Michael Conforto shouldn't be overlooked either.  Newcomer Ryan Mountcastle should give a boost to the Moonshiners outfield, as should Shohei Ohtani who is returning to the offensive side of things after a disappointing and injury riddled 2020 on the mound.  Part of the reason why the Moonshiners were able to shift Ohtani back to the outfield is because of the extensive depth of their starting rotation.  Yu Darvish returned to form as one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and figures to continue that form in San Diego this year.  Veterans Zack Greinke, Charlie Morton and Kyle Hendricks aren't overwhelming at this stage of their careers, but they are still very productive and reliable pitchers.  The potential breakout star on the pitching side for the Moonshiners is Jesus Luzardo.  The first place saves projection is perhaps a tad optimistic as it includes a full season's worth of saves out of Kirby Yates who won't pitch this year.  But they still ought to be in decent shape with Edwin Diaz, Trevor Rosenthal and Jake McGee as either certain or very likely closers.  While the fourth place projection in pitching points isn't particularly impressive, I'm not sure any other team can match the Moonshiners pitching depth, so there is upside here.  Combine that with what appears to be an improved offense and you should have the makings of a contending ballclub.

     

  • Predictably Unpredictable

    Embed from Getty Images There is no blueprint for how to approach a fantasy baseball draft following a 60 game, pandemic affected season.  How much weight do you put in players' performances in such a short sample size?  Is it safe to ignore the poor numbers of a veteran player with a long track record of success?  How do you judge a rookie who made his MLB debut after not being able to play in real minor league games for almost a full year?  Can the breakout stars of 2020 be trusted to repeat their performances over the long haul of a full season?  And finally, how do you judge the players who actually contracted and recovered from COVID-19?  Nobody knows the right answers to any of these questions.  And based on the results of the first round of the 2021 DTBL Draft, it would seem there were many different answers among the league's members.

    Going into this draft, I had absolutely no idea what to expect.  Unlike most years, there were hardly any sure-fire first round selections.  Partly because I was the owner of the second pick, I didn't even bother trying to compile a top ten list like I normally do.  But if I had, I think I can safely say I would have been wrong on close to half of the names.  And outside of the first two picks, I'm not sure I would have correctly pegged any other players with the teams that selected them.  Besides the general unpredictability, the other abnormal theme of the first round was the number of non-DTBL rookies selected.  Four players were chosen who have previous experience on DTBL rosters.  I have complete draft records dating back to 2005.  In the previous 16 years, no more than three non-rookies were selected in any year.  While unusual, this was not terribly surprising since there just wasn't a lot of time for newcomers to make their mark during the 2020 MLB season.

    The one pick in this draft that was definitely not surprising was the first one.  The Komodos selected White Sox young star outfielder Luis Robert.  The five tool phenom hit the ground running with an incredible first month of his big league career, during which he wasn't only one of the best rookies in the game, but one of the top players as well.  But even Robert comes with some question marks as he really struggled down the stretch, seeing his batting average fall to .233.  He was still just one steal away from a double/double HR/SB season, which would have been more like 25/25 stretched out to a full campaign.  With his power and speed, Robert is a legitimate 40/40 candidate down the road.  HR and SB were already two of the Komodos better categories, so he could help boost them among the top teams in the league in those areas.

    The second pick is another player with well above average power and decent speed as well.  The Kings boosted their extremely disappointing offense from a year ago with the selection of outfielder Randy Arozarena.  Arozerana became a breakout star in October, almost singlehandedly leading the Rays offense on the way to the World Series.  While he did seemingly come out of nowhere, he actually started mashing soon after being activated from the COVID-19 list in late August.  He slugged seven homers in September before adding  an incredible 10 more in the Postseason.  Even though he made his MLB debut in 2019, Arozarena actually remains MLB rookie eligible this year since he missed so much time in 2020 recovering from the virus.  For the Kings sake, hopefully he kept up his now famous pushup regimen this offseason.  If so, he could help the Kings rebound from a shockingly disappointing 2020.

    With the third pick in the draft, we had a quick throwback to last year's draft that featured four sons of former DTBL players selected in the first 15 picks.  The Choppers selected third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, 28 years after his father Brian, also a third baseman, played for the Choppers in the inaugural season of the DTBL of 1993.  The elder Hayes played four seasons in this league.  Ke'Bryan figures to stick around much longer.  Known mostly for his slick fielding as a prospect, Hayes burst onto the scene with a .376 average and five home runs in 85 big league at bats.  He has an advanced bat and runs well too, so there is serious five category potential here.  This marks the fourth straight year that the Choppers have selected an infielder with their first pick.  Hayes will join last year's pick of Pete Alonso to form a strong corner duo for years to come.

    So after three picks, this first round didn't look too dissimilar from previous years.  But things started to change at four.  The Demigods selected veteran outfielder J.D. Martinez, who they had just cut from their roster last month.  I suppose this could be chalked up as a case of seller's remorse.  Martinez struggled badly a year ago, but this came on the heels of three straight seasons of hitting at least .300 with 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI.  While he's no youngster at 33, it seems likely that his '20 campaign was an outlier and a product of a weird season.  Had the Demigods not picked him, some other team surely would have done so relatively early.  The surprise here is that it was the team that just cut him that made the pick.  If you ignore that fact though, Martinez makes all the sense in the world for a Demigods squad that has more than enough talent to contend and could really use his proven bat in the lineup.

    The Cougars followed by selecting another non-DTBL rookie.  But this one was more of a technicality as starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is at a completely different place now than he was when the Choppers took a late flier on him as a relief pitcher in 2019.  Burnes fell out of the league last year, but now returns as a starter with huge upside.  He started nine of the 12 games he appeared in last season and put up some impressive numbers.  He had a 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 60 innings.  This is the second straight year the Cougars have used the fifth overall pick on a starting pitcher who had fallen off the league roster the previous year.  Worked out pretty well with Lucas Giolito.  Those two should help the Cougars improve upon a rotation which somewhat held them back from being contenders a year ago.

    Jo Adell entered 2020 as one of the top prospects in baseball, but probably not quite ready for the majors.  The lack of a minor league season probably prevented him from that last bit of development time he could have used before making his debut.  Instead, he was thrown into the fire with the Angels for a bulk of the season.  It did not go well.  He hit just .161 and struck out in over 40% of his plate appearances.  He is flying under the radar this spring, in large part because he lost rookie eligibility and is thus not being discussed in prospect rankings.  But he is still very much a coveted prospect with great power and speed tools.  If he can improve the hit tool, he has a chance to be a star.  He will likely start this season in the minors though.  But that did not prevent the Mavericks from selecting him with the sixth pick.  This is a luxury the Mavericks could afford with their absolutely loaded roster, particularly in the outfield.  They don't really need anything from Adell to be a contender this season.  But the enormous upside was too much to pass up.

    The next pick was another player with an uncertain role this season.  The Beanballers selected Dodgers pitcher Dustin May with the sixth pick.  May is also not a DTBL rookie.  He was picked in the sixth round by the Mavericks last year.  But not having a firm grasp on a rotation spot heading into the season made him expendable.  The Beanballers were willing to gamble on the talent.  Even if he isn't able to crack the Dodgers rotation to start the season, it would be surprising if he didn't get plenty of opportunities sooner than later.  May did start 10 games a year ago and had an excellent 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  If he can improve on his strikeout rate, he has top of the rotation potential.  The Beanballers could definitely use a big season from him this year as they bide their time before Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery.

    With the eighth pick, the Moonshiners went a more traditional route, taking a rookie who made a strong impression in his debut.  Orioles outfielder Ryan Mountcastle put up numbers very similar to Hayes.  He hit .333 with five home runs in 140 plate appearances.  Mountcastle was a consistently strong hitter in the Orioles farm system for five full years before he finally got his opportunity in the big leagues last season.  He was the fifth outfielder selected in the first round.  Mountcastle should help shore up a Moonshiners offense that was below average a year ago and an outfield that should be much improved with Kyle Tucker quietly becoming a fantasy star and Shohei Ohtani returning to the offensive side of things this year.

    Next, the Jackalope selected shortstop Dansby Swanson, who has had a very interesting four year DTBL career.  This is the fourth time he has been drafted, by four different teams.  He has never spent consecutive seasons on the same roster.  Originally a second round pick of the Naturals in 2017, this was his first time as a first rounder.  Swanson is coming off a career year in which he hit 10 homers with 35 RBI in a shortened season.  He was a solid contributor to the championship winning Darkhorses, but was squeezed out with their deep roster.  The Jackalope were happy to add him to their infield, which was mildly disappointing a year ago.  Their offense will feature six of their former first round picks this season.  Even a minor improvement to that offense should put them in strong contention for a title.

    Finally, the defending champion Darkhorses closed out the first round by selecting another young slugger who made the most of the shortened season, but also enters 2021 with a somewhat unsettled role.  First baseman Dominic Smith was the final pick of the first round.  Smith made his MLB debut in 2017, but is still just 25 years old.  Last season, he hit .316 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI.  With Pete Alonso firmly entrenched at first base for the Mets and the designated hitter not being in play in the NL this year, Smith figures to see a bulk of his time in the outfield.  If he gets semi regular playing time, he could be a monster offensive force for a team that is already the best team in the league with the bats.  Immediately following the selection of Smith, eight of the Darkhorses ten hitters were players who hit double digit home runs a year ago.  And that doesn't even include Alex Bregman, who is only a year removed from hitting 40.  This is a truly scary offense.

    Half of the first round picks were outfielders and another could move there a year from now.  Meanwhile, only two pitchers were selected in the first ten picks.  This was despite much more league roster shuffling among hurlers than hitters.  It will be interesting to see which strategies pay off following a very unusual 2020.

  • Abreu, Tatis Share MVP Award

    Embed from Getty Images A sixty game regular season didn't afford players much of an opportunity to distinguish themselves from their peers.  Plenty of players made the most of the shortened schedule and had tremendous seasons.  But how do you determine which player was most valuable over such a short time frame?  It would appear the voters for the 2020 DTBL Most Valuable Player award had many different thoughts on that.  In quite possibly the most competitive award vote in league history, not one player received even half of the available points.  Five different guys received a first place tally and four others were ranked in the top three on at least one ballot.  A group of four players finished within four points of each other at the top of the results table.  And finally, two players tied for the ultimate prize.  Cougars first baseman Jose Abreu and Demigods shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. are the 2020 DTBL Co-Most Valuable Players.

    Jose Abreu has been a steady force for the Cougars since 2015.  But prior to this year, he had never received so much as a single MVP vote and has never been named a DTBL All-Star.  This year, however, he was clearly among the league's elite hitters.  He led the league with 60 RBI.  His 19 home runs trailed only Luke Voit.  He also hit .317 with 43 runs.  The batting average was easily a career high for Abreu and the pace he set in those counting stats would have been personal bests as well.  Being among the leaders in runs batted in is nothing new for Abreu though.  He finished second with 123 a year ago and has had at least 90 RBI in every season but one, prior to this season.  Abreu's 4.4 Batting PAR ranked fourth in the league, which is an unusually low ranking for a MVP.  But the margins were so small that distinguishing between players based on that stat alone didn't make a lot of sense this year.  He was just 0.2 points behind the leader (Tatis).

    Abreu was selected by the Cougars with the first overall pick in the 2015 Draft.  By first overall pick standards, perhaps his career had been a slight disappointment prior to this year.  But he's hardly been a bust.  He finished fourth for the Rookie of the Year award in 2015, following a strong first season.  His best full season was probably last year when he .284 with 33 homers and 123 RBI and a career high 5.4 PAR.  He almost certainly would have blown past that figure this year though with a full schedule.  He's now finished with at least 4.0 PAR in four of his six DTBL seasons.  Abreu was a major reason why the Cougars finished second in the league in batting points.

    In case you didn't get a chance to read the Rookie of the Year article, here is a quick recap of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s season.  The first overall selection in this year's draft lived up to the hype and then some.  Tatis led the league with 4.6 Batting PAR.  He hit .277 with 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Only five players had more steals and only two hit more home runs than Tatis.  Nobody exceeded his total in both of those categories.  He also led the league with 50 runs scored.

    While many players have come close in recent years, including Ronald Acuna last year, Tatis is the first player to win both the DTBL Rookie of the Year and DTBL Most Valuable Player in the same season since Ryan Howard in 2006.  Jake Arrieta had been the last person to win a pair of the three major awards, taking the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in 2015.  While Tatis' resume is quite impressive, he wasn't a lock to be the top finishing Demigod in this vote.  First baseman Freddie Freeman also garnered strong support.  Tatis and Freeman were the primary reasons why the Demigods had the league's most improved offense in 2020.

    As a White Sox fan, I'm reluctant to even mention this, but Tatis and Abreu very easily could have been teammates.  However, the Sox dealt Tatis to San Diego for Big Game James Shields in 2016.  Oops.  I don't think this is the first time that we have had co-MVPs.  In fact, I have a faint recollection of this happening in one of the league's first couple seasons.  Unfortunately, as I've mentioned before, my records are lacking on awards voting from the first decade of the league's existence.  This data is likely sitting on an old hard drive that I still posses, so maybe I can fill in the blanks later.

    The voting for this award was all over the map.  Abreu received the most first place votes with four, but didn't garner any second or third place tallies and was entirely left off one ballot.  He accumulated a total of 49 points, which was matched by Tatis, but in a different fashion.  Tatis received three first place votes along with a pair of seconds.  But he was also left off two ballots.  Perhaps the top stealth candidate for this award was the guy who finished third.  Beanballers shortstop Trea Turner was not among the players strongly considered for the National League MVP award.  He was an extremely valuable fantasy player, however, racking up impressive totals in all five offensive categories.  Turner hit .335 with a dozen homers and a dozen stolen bases.  He scored 46 runs and knocked in 41.  His 4.4 Batting PAR was a smidge ahead of Abreu.  Turner only received one first place vote, but was the top choice for runner-up with three seconds.  He finished with 47 points, just two behind Abreu and Tatis.  Komodos third baseman Jose Ramirez was also just a flipped vote here or there away from winning this award.  Ramirez actually had nearly identical numbers to Tatis across the board, but with a slightly higher .292 average.  Ramirez received a single first place vote, two seconds and three thirds.  He finished with 45 points, just four behind the winners.  But wait, there was one more player who had a reasonable shot at being the MVP.  Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman didn't receive any first place votes, but was another popular choice on ballots.  He appeared on eight ballots for a total of 32 points.  Those were the five who appeared on a majority of ballots.  Kings outfielder Mookie Betts also received a first place nod as one of the three total votes given to him.  To add to the chaos of these results is another fascinating fact.  The champion Darkhorses easily led the league in batting points.  However, not one of their players were among the eleven players who received MVP votes.  Finally, this is the first time in Mike Trout's illustrious career that he has not received a MVP vote.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    And with that, official business for the 2020 DTBL season is complete.  It's been a trying year for everybody.  I hope this league was a fun distraction for you at times this summer.  Let's all hope for a return to normalcy in 2021.  Have a great Thanksgiving!

  • Tatis Takes Top Rookie Honor

    Embed from Getty Images For the second consecutive year, the first overall pick in the DTBL Draft immediately took the league by storm and became one of its best players.  Last year, it was Ronald Acuna who led the league in PAR and won the 2019 DTBL Rookie of the Year award.  The Demigods didn't have a very difficult choice to make with the first pick of the draft back in March.  While it appeared to be a strong incoming class, there was only one player available who seemed to be a safe bet to carry a team in all five offensive categories.  The young shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. did just that.  Through much of the season, not only was Tatis the league's best rookie, but also seemed a lock to win both of the coveted postseason awards for which he was eligible.  In a very decisive vote, Fernando Tatis Jr. has won the 2020 DTBL Rookie of the Year award.

    Just like Acuna a year ago, Tatis led not only DTBL rookies, but all players in batting PAR.  He accumulated 4.6 PAR in the abbreviated 2020 season, which put him on pace to break Acuna's record setting 11.4 PAR from last year.  Tatis was truly a five category star.  His power and speed combo produced 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases, joining Jose Ramirez and Mookie Betts as the league's only 15+ HR, 10+ SB players this year.  He led the league with 50 runs scored while knocking in 45.  His .277 average was solid as well, though he slipped down to that mark in the closing weeks.  Among rookie hitters, nobody was particularly close to him.  His PAR was more than twice that of the next best rookie hitter.  Now we will wait to see if Tatis is able to accomplish the MVP/ROY double, which Acuna just narrowly missed last season.

    Tatis is the primary reason why the Demigods were in contention for their first DTBL title for much of the season.  They drifted back to a seventh place finish, but nearly doubled their batting point total (14 to 27), and moved into the top half of the league in batting points.  Tatis led the Demigods in home runs, runs and stolen bases.  He had nearly twice as many base thefts as any of his teammates.  He and Freddie Freeman gave the Demigods two of the best players in the league.  Freeman was recently named the National League MVP and figures to join Tatis in the discussion for that award in this league as well.  Tatis and Francisco Lindor give the Demigods an extremely enviable duo at shortstop that should help carry their offense to new heights in upcoming years.  Tatis is the Demigods' first Rookie of the Year winner since Corey Kluber in 2014.

    Despite Tatis' nearly impeccable Rookie of the Year resume, the streak of consecutive unanimous winners of this award ended at three.  Tatis received nine of the ten first place votes, plus one second to finish with 97 points.  While the unanimous selection streak ended, the streak of runaway victories continues.  Tatis was the only player to appear on all ten ballots.  Finishing second was one of this year's breakout stars, Jackalope pitcher Dinelson Lamet.  This was actually not Lamet's first season in the DTBL.  However, he remained rookie eligible because he never appeared on the Naturals active roster in 2018 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery.  This year, Lamet struck out 93 in 69 innings with an impressive 2.09 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.  No rookie pitcher had more strikeouts.  Lamet received six second place votes for a total of 50 points.  Just behind him was another early draft pick of the Demigods, third round pitcher Max Fried.  Their second round pick Zac Gallen also received a vote, which means the Demigods really cashed in with their first three selections.  Fried had a miniscule 1.98 ERA and led rookies with six wins.  He appeared on nine ballots with one second and five third place votes for 41 points.  The fourth place finisher was a major contributor for the champion Darkhorses.  Their bullpen was the best in the league, by far, and Liam Hendriks was a big reason why.  Hendriks had 14 saves with a ridiculous 1.78 ERA and 0.67 WHIP.  He received the lone first place vote that didn't go to Tatis, propelling him to 29 points.  This is the highest finish in the Rookie of the Year vote for a relief pitcher since Craig Kimbrel and John Axford finished second and third respectively in 2011.  Rounding out the top five is one of this season's best free agent signings, outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.  Despite going undrafted, Hernandez was signed in time to accumulate a dozen homers for the Beanballers in just 140 at bats.  He received a second place vote and 12 total points.  In total, 11 different players appeared on at least one ballot.  So while there was a clear consensus for the top spot, many deserving players split the remaining votes.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    Sorry I'm a little late with the start of these award announcements.  I usually like to do them about the same time as the MLB awards are announced.  But in my defense, I think MLB did theirs a week earlier than usual this year.  At any rate, the Cy Young award should be announced in a few days with MVP to follow either this weekend or early next week.

  • One Month Down, One to Go

    Embed from Getty Images If it feels like the 2020 baseball season just started, well, that's basically true.  However, we're also more than half way through the abbreviated 60 game slate.  I think we all entered this season ready to expect the unexpected, and that is pretty much what we have gotten.  Critical injuries, particularly to pitchers, have decimated rosters.  Multiple MLB teams have had week's worth of games wiped out due to positive COVID-19 tests.  Seven inning doubleheaders and wacky extra inning rules have become a common occurrence.  The season has also had its good moments though, like the breakout of a new wave of stars, including the ones who will be covered below.

    One thing I was expecting from this shortened season was chaos at the top of the standings.  But that really hasn't proven to be the case... at least not yet.  The Darkhorses have been in first or second place every day of the season since the opening weekend and have held the top spot for almost two straight weeks now.  So, as has become an annual tradition, the Darkhorses are right in the thick of the race as we head into September.  But that's about the only thing this season has in common with recent years.  No longer are the Kings their chief competition.  In fact, the Kings are one of probably three teams that have little to no shot at winning the title this year.  Their house of cards tumbled quickly when Justin Verlander was lost to an arm injury in the first week of the season.  The wildly underachieving Jackalope offense and Komodos pitching staff have left them as the other two teams with little hope for a championship season.  But everybody else should feel like they still have a shot.  The Cougars, Moonshiners and Demigods are having breakout years.  The Mavericks have overcome some tough pitching losses to remain in the thick of things.  The Beanballers have bounced back from a very slow start to get back into the conversation.  And the Choppers have amazingly had the best pitching staff in the league despite losing Chris Sale for the season this past spring.  The Darkhorses would seem to be the favorites, not only because of their current lead, but also because they are pretty healthy at the moment.  Of course, that could change in a hurry.

    This will probably be the one and only Players of the Month article this season since I don't usually bother with such things after September.  Usually following the first month of the season in April, the awards are based on stats accumulated in March in addition to April.  But this time, I elected not to include the July stats since there was over a week's worth of games played in that month, compared to typically just a few days in March.  That said, the winners would have been the same even if I had included the July stats.  But the statlines below are August only.  As usual, these are completely based on highest PAR for the week and month.

    Here are the award winners for July and August of 2020.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (7/23 - 7/26) - Nelson Cruz, Komodos Week 2 (7/27 - 8/2) - Aaron Judge, Mavericks Week 3 (8/3 - 8/9) - Fernando Tatis, Demigods Week 4 (8/10 - 8/16) - Juan Soto, Mavericks Week 5 (8/17 - 8/23) - Jose Abreu, Cougars Week 6 (8/24 - 8/30) - Manny Machado, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (7/23 - 7/26) - Shane Bieber, Choppers Week 2 (7/27 - 8/2) - Shane Bieber, Choppers Week 3 (8/3 - 8/9) - Frankie Montas, Kings Week 4 (8/10 - 8/16) - Aaron Nola, Demigods Week 5 (8/17 - 8/23) - Yu Darvish, Moonshiners Week 6 (8/24 - 8/30) - Lucas Giolito, Cougars

    Half of the Batter of the Week honors so far this season have gone to Mavericks hitters, and three different ones at that, displaying the depth of that roster.  While the game may be shifting younger and younger, particularly among position players, a few veterans are still going strong including 40 year old Nelson Cruz and 33 year old Jose Abreu, who is having his best season since his rookie campaign so far.  Due to the way pitching starts are scattered, it is extremely difficult for someone to win Pitcher of the Week two weeks in a row, but that's exactly what Shane Bieber did to start the season.  Two of the three pitchers selected in the first round of the draft in March (Lucas Giolito and Frankie Montas) won weekly honors.  Giolito did so on the strength of the season's first no-hitter.  Two players have really stood head and shoulders above their peers so far this season.  And they happen to be the Batter and Pitcher of the Month for August.

    Batter of the Month:

    Fernando Tatis, Demigods .313 AVG, 11 HR, 24 RBI, 31 R, 4 SB, 3.10 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Shane Bieber, Choppers 1.63 ERA, 0.905 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 57 K, 3.80 PAR

    Fernando Tatis Jr. has almost single-handedly turned the Demigods from a historically weak team a year ago, the worst in franchise history, to a championship contender this season.  The first overall pick in the draft has lived up to the hype and then some.  He currently leads the league in PAR (by more than a full point), home runs, runs batted in and runs scored.  He is also hitting over .300 and has seven steals.  Ronald Acuna's rookie season last year was among the best this league has ever seen, but Tatis is one-upping him this year, albeit he won't come close to Acuna's counting stat numbers due to the abbreviated season.  At the moment, Tatis would almost certainly win not only Rookie of the Year, but Most Valuable Player as well.  The Demigods do have some ground to make up as they remain slightly below average in batting points, but Tatis could certainly continue to push them up the standings.  Tatis won this award going away, but Mookie Betts and Jose Abreu were the closest competition.

    What is amazing about those Shane Bieber August numbers above is that they don't even include his first two starts of the season, which earned him weekly honors.  As mentioned above, the Choppers lead the league in pitching points despite not having the services of Chris Sale.  Bieber is the reason why.  He already has a two point lead in Pitching PAR with a ridiculous 1.20 ERA and a league leading 84 strikeouts in just 52 2/3 innings pitched.  Bieber is following up an impressive rookie season with an even better sophomore campaign.  The Choppers do have a tall hill to climb to get into the title chase due to a scuffling offense.  If they can improve upon that though, Bieber and the pitching staff are primed to keep them in the hunt.  Because two of Bieber's best starts came in July, this particular award wasn't a runaway.  Pitchers from opposite sides of Chicago, Moonshiners' Yu Darvish and Cougars' Lucas Giolito, came in second and third.

  • 2020 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images The first part of the 2020 DTBL season preview covered a pair of teams that were dealt serious blows to their 2020 aspirations many months ago.  But today, we'll preview three teams that should probably feel pretty optimistic about their chances this season, for a variety of reasons.  First, a couple of these teams are projected to finish higher in the standings than they did a year ago.  All three appear to be relatively healthy heading into the season, despite some early COVID-19 scares.  With some exciting new faces on these rosters, gaping holes from a year ago have been filled as well.  While it may be hard to get fired up for a projected finish in the bottom half of the standings, these teams are absolutely championship contenders in a 60 game sprint.  Here are the teams projected to finish in sixth through eight places in the 2020 standings.

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (6th)

    • Home Runs - 10th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (7th)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (10th)

    • Wins - 6th (10th)

    • Saves - 10th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 6th (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (10th)

    • Total Points - 8th (10th)

    Summary:

    There is really no way to go but up for the Demigods after a disastrous 2019.  It was the worst season in franchise history, finishing dead last with just 19 standings points.  That season was an outlier in almost every respect.  They had finished in the top half of the standings the previous five years.  What had been one of the league's best offenses just one year prior suddenly fell to ninth, and a consistently above average pitching staff managed to finish last in all five pitching categories.  So what will it take to return to their usual form?  Adding Fernando Tatis with the first overall pick in the draft should fix a lot of weaknesses.  He joins Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve to make up what might be the best middle infield in the league.  So far, Freddie Freeman seems to have been the baseball player who suffered the worst symptoms from COVID-19.  Fortunately, he appears to be fully healthy now and should be ready to go soon.  Ketel Marte and Austin Meadows were among the few bright spots for the Demigods last year and should headline the outfield crew again.  Meadows is currently sidelined with coronavirus, but assuming he returns healthy, this group looks pretty decent too.  The projections show J.D. Martinez continuing to be an offensive force as well.  Pitching is where things get a little dicey.  Again, they can't possibly be any worse than last year.  Aaron Nola is clearly the staff ace and Max Fried has exciting upside.  You just don't know for sure what you are getting from anyone else.  Corey Kluber has been on the decline for a while and is now pitching in Texas.  Zac Gallen is an intriguing young arm though, and it will be interested to see how Kenta Maeda's return to the rotation goes in Minnesota.  The Demigods will look to their bullpen to rack up a lot of strikeouts, but probably not many saves.  Nobody on the roster is a projected closer to start the season.  Josh James could be pretty interesting if he winds up in the Astros rotation.  Expect the Demigods to prove last year was an aberration.  If they get off to a hot start, 2019 will be quickly forgotten.

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 10th (6th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (8th)

    • Wins - 7th (8th)

    • Saves - 3rd (7th)

    • Strike Outs - 9th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd-T (7th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 9th (8th)

    • Total Points - 7th (8th)

    Summary:

    These batting projections for the Komodos are quite interesting.  A team that finished near the bottom of the league in the power categories (HR, RBI) last year is now expected to be among the league's best.  And this is despite the fact that the only seemingly significant power addition to the roster was first round pick Yordan Alvarez.  Alvarez is indeed a major power addition, but this also may point to some underachieving from the roster in this regard last year.  Jose Ramirez definitely underachieved early last season, but returned to form in the second half.  He is one of the best power/speed players in all of baseball.  Cody Bellinger is one of the best players, period.  And then there are Joey Gallo and Nelson Cruz who also figure to be near the top of the leaderboard in the power categories.  So yeah, those projections actually make sense.  Maybe the one player who will be most important for the Komodos to improve upon last year's numbers, by staying healthy, is shortstop Corey Seager.  Rougned Odor was a sneaky good add to the infield as well, according to these projections.  Like the Demigods though, the success of the Komodos this year will depend on what they get from their pitching staff.  It was basically a one man show in their 2019 rotation with Walker Buehler being the only one to accumulate a positive PAR.  While he is a capable ace, he'll need some help this year.  Unfortunately, two of their other top starters, Jose Quintana and Jake Odorizzi, may not be ready to go on Opening Day (definitely not in Quintana's case).  The rest of the rotation will be filled with steady, but not spectacular veterans.  The bullpen looks to be very good though.  Kirby Yates and Aroldis Chapman give the Komodos two of the top closers in the game.  Brandon Workman was a nice addition to provide them with three guys likely to earn a lot of saves this season.  Dating back to their days as the Gators, these two franchises haven't finished higher than eighth place since 2010.  With an exciting offense to lean on, this could be the year that changes.

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2019 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (2nd)

    • Home Runs - 5th (2nd)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 4th (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 6th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (9th)

    • Wins - 4th (9th)

    • Saves - 4th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 5th (8th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (9th)

    • Total Points - 6th (6th)

    Summary:

    Now we come to what might be the most interesting set of projections in this entire series.  At first glance, a sixth place finish for a team that finished sixth last year doesn't seem particularly notable.  But look at that category breakdown.  The Cougars surprised many be compiling the second most batting points in the league in 2019.  They were unable to remain competitive though because their pitching staff really let them down.  And now we are seeing the exact opposite in these projections.  The Cougars are the first team covered in this series that appears to have a pretty strong pitching staff.  Yet they are expected to be dragged down by the hitters that carried them a year ago.  Two players who likely won't be responsible for a fall in batting points are middle infielders Gleyber Torres and Trevor Story.  Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suarez complete a pretty strong infield.  Where they may be a bit lacking in star power is in the outfield.  Tommy Pham has the highest PAR projection of that group, but that's at a modest 1.1.  This is a veteran group as well, so there might be limited upside.  The pairing of Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez behind the plate should be pretty good though.  The pitching staff should easily lead the Cougars to more pitching points this year.  Lucas Giolito joins Blake Snell to form a great, and relatively young, top of the rotation.  Sonny Gray experienced a career resurgence last year in Cincinnati.  The Cougars will hope for the same from Madison Bumgarner who will now be pitching in Arizona.  The bullpen is pretty intriguing as well.  Alex Colome is the veteran closer in the group, but Nick Anderson is probably the most exciting member.  The peripheral numbers indicate that he has a chance to become one of the next great relievers in the league.  If Hansel Robles proves last year wasn't a fluke, the Cougars could find themselves near the top of the league in saves.  There is a lot to like about this Cougars roster.  Some combination of last year's offensive output and these healthy projections for the pitching staff would make the Cougars a darkhorse contender in 2020.