Category: Demigods

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part III

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    A couple days of the 2026 MLB season are in the books. Early takeaways are that Mike Trout may have found the fountain of youth this winter, as if the Mavericks were hurting without him at his peak. And the Moonshiners rotation may be even more loaded with the addition of Cam Schlittler. But we’ll get to the Mavericks and Moonshiners more later, because they are not among the rest of the middle pack of teams in the projected standings.

    The three teams that we will cover today are very closely packed with the three teams in the previous article, especially the first team to go today. These are teams that are strong enough to contend for the title if they exceed expectations in a few key areas. Their weaknesses aren’t so glaring that they can’t be overcome though. Here are the teams projected to finish in third through fifth places this season.

    Kat’s Komodos

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (6th)
    • Home Runs – 8th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
    • Wins – 5th (3rd)
    • Saves – 1st (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 5th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 5th (7th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos have not finished in the top half of the standings since 2022, but it appears there is a decent chance of that changing this year. These projections point to them being a much stronger offensive team this year, which was a significant weakness a year ago. That’s interesting because the individual projections of the hitters they added in the early rounds of the draft are good, but not great. It starts at catcher where they added first round pick Drake Baldwin and later picked Austin Wells to give them a solid foundation there. Josh Naylor somehow becoming a base stealing savant was one of the most surprising developments of 2025. Assuming that remains part of his game this year, he and his former Cleveland teammate Jose Ramirez give the Komodos an elite duo at the corner infield spots. They have another solid first baseman in Yandy Diaz as well. The middle infield was largely revamped with veterans Brandon Lowe and Xander Bogaerts brought in and Gleyber Torres brought back to add stability. The Komodos outfield is very intriguing with a bunch of guys capable of carrying the squad. Yordan Alvarez hopes to shake off an injury riddled ’25. James Wood was one of the best players in the league in the first half of last year, but had major contact issues in the second half that he will look to remedy this season. Cody Bellinger and Luis Robert are back to provide big upside to this outfield. One potential wild card here is the addition of Chandler Simpson who is capable of winning a team the stolen base title all by himself. Where he will fit into this deep group of Komodo outfielders remains to be seen. The Komodos pitching staff is not quite as settled, particularly the rotation. Well, the top two spots are. Christopher Sanchez and Framber Valdez give them two lefty aces who they don’t have to worry about at all. Tanner Bibee is a fairly safe bet to be a solid contributor too. Its the other two spots that are open questions. Shane McClanahan missed two full seasons following Tommy John surgery. He had a very good spring training though, so there is some hope he is finally healthy and can return to being an elite pitcher. Jack Flaherty was added as insurance. And who knows if Walker Buehler can resuscitate his career? The bullpen looks very good, at least from a saves perspective. Jhoan Duran is one of the game’s best closers. Carlos Estevez and Kenley Jansen should provide plenty of saves too. Even Edwin Uceta has a chance to be the Rays closer once he gets healthy. Overall, this should be a very interesting team to watch. The Komodos hope to end their top division drought.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (3rd)
    • Wins – 2nd (5th-T)
    • Saves – 7th (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Points – 4th (4th)

    Summary:

    On paper, the Darkhorses look pretty similar heading into this season as they did a year ago. They led the league in pitching points, but slipped to a fourth place finish because of a pedestrian offense. These projections show an even starker split between those two parts of the team heading into this year. But that certainly isn’t because of their approach to the draft. They took hitters with each of their first three picks. Much of what I wrote about the Kings offense applies to the Darkhorses as well. They have a very deep lineup with no obvious weak spot. However, their offensive core is veteran players who may be past their primes, leading to few players with truly elite offensive projections. Bryce Harper is the only Darkhorse with a Batting PAR projection over 3. Alex Bregman has a surprisingly mediocre projection, for which I would bet the over. Spencer Torkleson and Jonathan Aranda give the Darkhorses a very deep group at the corner infield spots. The middle infield is almost completely made up of newcomers to the roster who are proven performers: first round draft pick Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jose Caballero. Perhaps the biggest potential upside player here is Jackson Holliday who could be a post-hype sleeper once he gets healthy. The Darkhorses added versatile catcher Agustin Ramirez to pair with Hunter Goodman to solidify that position. The outfield is perhaps a bit underwhelming compared to the teams that are yet to come in this preview series. But it is also an incredibly reliable group, led by veterans Christian Yelich and George Springer. Jackson Merrill is capable of taking his game to another level. Then there is under the radar youngster Jakob Marsee. The strength of this team lies in the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation. Take your pick on who you consider the ace of this staff among Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb and Jesus Luzardo. Hunter Greene would have been included there too if he were not expected to miss a good chunk of the season with an elbow injury. They have someone to replace him though with what I thought was one of the steals of the draft, reacquiring veteran Sonny Gray in the sixth round. If Spencer Strider can get fully healthy and back to his old form, this might be the deepest rotation in the league. The bullpen is good on talent, but they probably won’t lead the league in saves again with Robert Suarez no longer having a closing gig to himself. Andres Munoz does though and will likely lead this group in saves. This is a relieving core that will contribute in other categories too though. The Darkhorses definitely have the pitching to win another title. The question will be if they can get enough elite performances out of their deep stable of hitters to chase down the other top teams.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 5th (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (8th)
    • Wins – 1st (4th)
    • Saves – 2nd (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 3rd (3rd)

    Summary:

    Just like the Darkhorses, the Demigods are projected to finish in the same spot as they did a year ago. However, the shape of that profile is a bit different this time around. Last year, they trailed only the champion Mavericks in batting points, but were below average on the pitching side. This year, they shape up as a well balanced squad, more so than any team covered to this point. Earlier this spring, the Demigods were in a rough spot with several of their key players suffering injuries early in camp. However, Francisco Lindor and Corbin Carroll made it back in time for Opening Day. Only Jordan Westburg and Seiya Suzuki remain on the shelf among players who suffered injuries this spring. Lindor and Carroll are two of four hitters on this roster with Batting PAR projections over 4. The others are Zach Neto and Francisco Lindor Jr. That’s a great starting point for an elite offense. Mainstay Demigods Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve join Lindor and Neto to make up an excellent infield. The temporary loss of Westburg hurts a bit at third base, but Royce Lewis was added to give them another option there. The outfield is thin on numbers with Suzuki down. However, Carroll, Tatis, Byron Buxton and newcomer Ceddanne Rafaela all provide five category production. Alejandro Kirk joins Yainer Diaz behind the plate. Assuming injuries don’t continue to plague this group, the Demigods should be a very good hitting team again this year. Where they will look to improve upon is the pitching staff which was not good enough to keep them in the title race until the end last year. It does seem they have made some key additions to address that, starting with first round pick Kyle Bradish. Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery late last season looking as good as new. If that continues into this season, the Demigods may have another ace to join with Max Fried. Another strong addition to the staff is the under appreciated Ranger Suarez who has been released by three different DTBL teams the past two years despite always putting up solid numbers. The other key holdovers from last year are Shota Imanaga and Zac Gallen. And then there is Carlos Rodon who had one of the best seasons of his career last year, but will miss the first month or so of this season recovering from an elbow injury. Gone are the days of the Demigods punting the saves category. Aroldis Chapman, David Bednar and Pete Fairbanks should give them a shot at leading the league in saves this year. This is a strong pitching staff that raises the floor pretty high for the Demigods as a whole. Their second championship could be within reach this season.

  • Kurtz Kicks off Draft

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    The 2026 DTBL Draft is in the books. I usually write this recap article while the draft is still in progress. Even though that is not the case this time around, I’m going to keep it focused on the first round. There will be time to cover some of the other players taken during the team previews, which will start to roll out soon as we approach Opening Day next week. Going into this year’s draft, it was pretty clear this was not going to match last year in terms of clear cut rising stars occupying the bulk of the first round selections. So it was not surprising that four of the players taken in the first round this year are not new to the DTBL and even one of the newcomers has a few years of MLB experience under his belt.

    The Diamond Dogs got things started by taking one of the few players in this draft who would have been a certain first round pick in any year’s draft. They selected reigning American League Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, whose game power took no time at all acclimating to the big leagues. Kurtz slugged 36 home runs for the Athletics while maintaining an elite .290 batting average as well. This is the first time since 2018 that the first overall pick has been a first baseman. It was the fourth time in five years that the Diamond Dogs have made the first pick in the draft. If Kurtz keeps doing his thing, the Dogs offense could be good enough to make sure a different team gets that opportunity to pick first next year.

    The second pick wasn’t quite as clear cut as the Kurtz selection. The Cougars opted to go with one of last year’s breakout stars, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Perdomo’s disciplined plate approach mixed with excellent speed and newfound power turned him into a complete player in 2025. He hit .290 with 20 homers and 27 stolen bases. What perhaps made this a surprise selection for the Cougars specifically is that the middle infield was already a bit crowded even before the draft started with four of their keepers being second basemen or shortstops. Nonetheless, Perdomo joins Ketel Marte as the cornerstones at those positions moving forward.

    The Jackalope went with youngsters with big upside pretty much throughout this draft, starting with third overall selection Roman Anthony. Anthony entered last season as the consensus top prospect in the game. Like Kurtz, it took very little time for Anthony to show his potential in the big leagues. The five tool outfielder hit .292 with eight home runs before an oblique injury cut his season short. His recent performance in the World Baseball Classic showed that he’s healthy again and already among the best young players in the game. It remains to be seen if the Jackalope youth movement pays immediate dividends. Anthony figures to be a big part of their future regardless of how long it takes to return to contention.

    While this may have been a down year for talent in the draft overall, that was not the case for every position. The league hasn’t seen an influx of top flight catchers in a while. This could be the year that changes. The Komodos selected ’25 National League Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin with the fourth pick. It is the earliest a catcher has been taken in the draft since Gary Sanchez went second overall in 2017. While Baldwin was a prospect of note in the Braves organization, he wasn’t really expected to be a big contributor in 2025 with veteran Sean Murphy leading the Braves catching core. But Baldwin replaced an injured Murphy early in the season and likely took his starting job for good. He hit .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBI, all outstanding numbers for the offensively challenged position of catcher. He will team up with later draft pick Austin Wells to potentially give the Komodos one of the best catching combos in the league.

    The Komodos saw one of their former players go off the board in the pick following their own. The Choppers were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie when they nabbed closer Devin Williams with the fifth pick in the draft. It was definitely a case of picking for need as the Choppers did not bring back a single reliever from their ’25 squad. Williams had established himself as one of the best closers in baseball prior to an injury riddled ’24 season and then a rough 2025 campaign in which he eventually lost his job as the Yankees closer. Now he’s across town with the Mets where he will look to fill Edwin Diaz’s large shoes as their ninth inning stopper. The Choppers went reliever again in the second round taking Daniel Palencia, in hopes of turning this obvious weakness into a strength.

    One of the more interesting players in this year’s draft pool was Ben Rice who has incredible value as long as he remains eligible at catcher in this league. The problem is, that very well could be for this year only depending on how often the Yankees decide to put the slugger behind the dish. He’s far less valuable from a fantasy perspective manning first base. The Kings decided the gamble was worth it for this year anyway, making him the sixth selection of the draft. Rice hit 26 home runs with well above typical catcher numbers in average, runs and RBIs as well. So long as he puts up similar numbers this year, he will give the Kings a huge leg up on most of the league at that position. Whether or not he is one and done at that position in this league is something the Kings will worry about next offseason.

    A second former Komodo went off the board with the seventh pick. The Darkhorses nabbed veteran shortstop Corey Seager who perhaps had lost favor with the Komodos after a string of injury marred seasons. When healthy though, he’s about as reliable of an offensive performer as you can get. The Darkhorses offense is what prevented them from being a serious title contender a year ago. They were particularly weak up the middle. Seager should provide an immediate upgrade at that spot. If he stays healthy this time around, the Darkhorses figure to be in the championship mix all the way to the end.

    Kyle Bradish has a chance to be this year’s Garrett Crochet, a player who has been on the DTBL roster before but retains rookie eligibility due to never seeing an active roster before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2024. I think people forget how good he was prior to that injury. Obviously the Demigods didn’t, as they selected him with the seventh overall pick, making him the first starting pitcher taken in this draft. Bradish is the second straight Oriole taken by the Demigods in the first round, following Jordan Westburg a year ago. Bradish returned from the long rehab process late last season and looked like his old self, throwing 32 dominant innings. Because he never saw time on the active roster with the Jackalope, he enters this season as a strong DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Another starting pitcher followed Bradish with the Moonshiners selecting young righty Nolan McLean with pick number nine. McLean really flew up prospect rankings last year and had an extremely impressive MLB cup of coffee. He retains MLB rookie eligibility entering this season and is the consensus preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Drafted out of college as a two-way player, it has just been a little over a year since he started focusing solely on pitching. So there is still huge room for growth. As we saw in last night’s WBC Championship Game, he’s not afraid of the biggest of stages, and has the stuff to back it up. This is the third straight year the Moonshiners have used their first pick on a starting pitcher. Good luck to McLean in living up to the standard set by Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

    The Mavericks really have no weaknesses, so the two time defending champs could go in pretty much whatever direction they wanted with their early draft picks. This time, they opted to pick up a steady veteran outfielder in Ian Happ. Happ joins an outfield that already consisted of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jarren Duran and Mike Trout. Jazz Chisholm is moving onto the dirt this season though, opening up a spot for another solid outfield contributor. Happ figures to be just that. Going with proven commodities with their first several picks allowed the Mavericks to take some big swings at youngsters later in the draft. If history is any indication, they will probably hit a couple home runs with those picks. The Mavericks remain the team to beat in this league.

    Thanks to everyone for a well paced and well executed draft. We’re less than a week away from Opening Day. Season preview posts will be coming very soon. Stay tuned!

  • 2025 Season Preview: Part II

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    Before I get to the next set of teams in this DTBL season preview series, I want to take a moment to expand upon a passing comment I made up top in the first section.  I was a bit pressed for time while writing that night.  I mentioned that I was leaning towards switching away from the Fangraphs Depth Charts as the projection system of choice next year.  The reason for this is because I think it seriously overrates players who are either injury prone or are returning from major injuries.  As a quick refresher, Depth Charts combines two other projections systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts for expected playing time depending on the MLB team's current roster.  The reason why I've liked this in the past is because it more accurately accounts for how much, or how little, of a role upcoming prospects might play for their teams and which guys might be stuck in platoon situations.  However, as MLB teams are now incentivized to call up prospects earlier, this has become less useful.  So some of the strengths of this system are being outweighed by the weaknesses in projecting playing time for injury prone players.  Let's take a player who wasn't drafted this year as an example:  Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen.  He has the 11th highest projected Pitching PAR of any player who was available in this year's draft.  The reason for that is because one projection system, ZiPS, was especially high on his performance, but in only 76 innings.  When you extrapolate that out to Depth Charts' 125 projected innings, you get outstanding numbers.  However, that's not really what ZiPS was projecting.  Rasmussen has only pitched more than 80 innings once in his career.  So the ZiPS innings projection makes more sense to me than what Depth Charts spits out.  There are similar weaknesses among hitters who can't stay healthy as well.  So I'm going to take a closer look at this next winter and possibly pick a different projection system to use for this effort.

    Anyway, as the first weekend of the 2025 MLB season gets underway, let's take a look at a few more DTBL teams heading into the new season.  This group is projected to finish in the middle of the pack, comfortably ahead of the four teams covered in part one, but also a decent ways behind the top contenders.  These teams don't have the glaring weaknesses of the teams covered in the first section, but also may need some special overachieving performances to chase for a title.  Here are the teams projected to finishing fourth through sixth places this year.

     

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (6th)
    • Home Runs - 5th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th)
    • Runs Scored - 8th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases - 7th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average - 6th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 7th (3rd)
    • Wins - 7th (5th-T)
    • Saves - 3rd (5th)
    • Strike Outs - 9th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points - 4th (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 6th (5th-T)
    • Total Points - 6th (6th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos have been quietly sneaking up the standings the past couple years and could now be in a position to break into the top half of the standings, although here they are picked to finish the same place as last year in sixth place.  The offense is well rounded with solid, reliable contributors across the board.  Jose Ramirez remains the star of the show and once again should be expected to be among the league's best all around players.  Josh Naylor is replacing Christian Walker at first base in Arizona, but both return as teammates with the Komodos where they are joined by Yandy Diaz to provide quality depth.  Corey Seager and Anthony Volpe will anchor the shortstop position once again.  The newcomer on the infield is Luis Garcia Jr who finally put it all together last year and is now a quality power and speed guy at a pretty shallow second base position.  The Komodos outfield was a bit of a disappointment last year.  However, on paper, this looks like a very strong group heading into this season with the addition of first round pick James Wood.  Yordan Alvarez should be in the running to lead the league in homers.  A change of scenery could do Cody Bellinger some good, especially now playing in the lefty hitting paradise of Yankee Stadium.  Then there is Luis Robert Jr who is coming off of a miserable, injury plagued season.  If he can return to form, he remains one of the highest upside fantasy stars in the game.  A return to form could also help get him traded away from the sorry White Sox.  These projections call for the Komodos to finish fourth in the league in batting points.  I could see them moving up even higher than that if all goes well.  The pitching staff will likely determine the team's ultimate fate though.  There is a proven track record of success from their entire rotation.  However, I'm a tad skeptical that Shane McClanahan and Walker Buehler, with their checkered health in recent years, will accumulate 150+ innings as these projections call for.  Framber Valdez and Tanner Bibee are the safer bets to lead this pitching staff.  Bailey Ober is a reliable anchor and Christopher Sanchez was a nice pickup in the second half of the draft.  Ultimately, health will be the number one factor in determining how strong this Komodos rotation will be.  The bullpen should be outstanding.  Devin Williams and Jhoan Duran are an excellent 1-2 punch that should ensure they are near the top of the league in saves.  Kenley Jansen may be past his prime, but is firmly entrenched in a closer role as well.  If Lucas Erceg is able to wrestle some saves away from former Komodo Carlos Estevez in Kansas City, the Komodos could find themselves atop the saves rankings.  There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Komodos this season.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs - 8th (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In - 9th (7th)
    • Runs Scored - 4th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases - 5th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (1st)
    • Wins - 3rd (3rd)
    • Saves - 7th (3rd)
    • Strike Outs - 5th (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points - 7th (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (1st)
    • Total Points - 5th (3rd)

    Summary:

    This is as low as the Kings have been projected to finish since 2021 when they were coming off of a miserable ninth place finish in the pandemic shortened 2020 season.  This time around, a fifth place finish would be a two spot drop from a respectable third place in 2024.  Taking a close look at the roster, this projection makes sense though.  The Kings entered this season with a bit of a roster construction problem as their two best offensive players, Gunnar Henderson and Mookie Betts, both moved to shortstop, leaving holes at other positions, most notably the outfield.  Randy Arozarena was their only outfield keeper.  So rebuilding that was job one heading into this season.  They did that by selecting Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez with their first two draft picks.  Both have tantalizing upside, but also very short major league track records, causing modest projections entering this season.  Heliot Ramos was another youngster added to the outfield mix.  The only "safe" addition to the group was Tommy Edman.  So the Kings outfield has an extremely high ceiling, but also a very low floor.  How it all works out is anyone's guess.  One the flip side, with the arrival of Betts, the infield is quite loaded with reliable producers.  Betts, Henderson, Marcus Semien and Bryson Stott make up a loaded middle infield that caused them to trade away Bo Bichette for a second round draft pick that turned into Matt Chapman.  Chapman joins Austin Riley at the hot corner and Matt Olson at the other corner.  Other than Stott, every infielder I just mentioned is a safe bet for at least 20 homers.  The catching duo of Will Smith and Logan O'Hoppe is pretty solid as well.  The Kings offense is definitely capable of exceeding these modest expectations.  It will totally depend on what they get out of their very young outfield.  Meanwhile, they return their entire starting rotation that helped them lead the league in ERA, WHIP and total pitching points a year ago.  Zack Wheeler, Cole Ragans, George Kirby, Michael King and Bryce Miller make up the fearsome fivesome.  Kirby is starting the season on the shelf though, so he will be temporarily replaced by Carlos Rodon, back for his second stint with the Kings.  Assuming Kirby's injury isn't a long term concern, this is as solid of a 1-5 as any team in the league.  Like the outfield, the Kings also had to do a nearly complete rebuild of their bullpen.  Jeff Hoffman is the only returner.  Trevor Megill joins him to give the Kings two solid closers.  They hope to lock down a majority of the Phillies saves with Jordan Romano and Orion Kerkering.  However, early indications are both might be setting up for Jose Alvarado.  It seems unlikely the Kings will be able to finish as high as third in saves again this year.  The Kings infield and rotation are as good as it gets, but major questions in the outfield and bullpen make this an extremely difficult team to predict.  Fifth place would be a disappointing finish for them though.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (3rd)
    • Home Runs - 2nd (5th-T)
    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (3rd)
    • Runs Scored - 2nd (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases - 4th (1st-T)
    • Earned Run Average - 7th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (9th)
    • Wins - 6th (1st-T)
    • Saves - 8th (9th)
    • Strike Outs - 8th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points - 7th-T (5th-T)
    • Total Points - 4th (4th)

    Summary:

    In a world in which the Mavericks didn't exist, we would be talking more about how great of an offensive team the Demigods were a year ago and how good they should be again this year.  The Demigods have above average hitters at pretty much every position.  Willson Contreras and Yainer Diaz project to be the best catching duo in the league, with this likely being Contreras' last season at catcher in this league.  Speaking of guys changing positions, this also figures to be Jose Altuve's last season anchoring second base for the Demigods.  Francisco Lindor's incredible 2024 season got overshadowed by a few other players having historic campaigns.  He and Freddie Freeman give the Demigods a pair of MVP candidates on the infield.  A lot has been said about Isaac Paredes having the perfect swing for his new ballpark home in Houston, so that makes him an exciting addition to this already strong group.  Then there is first round pick Jordan Westburg who is only beginning to scratch his potential in Baltimore.  The Demigods outfield is perhaps not quite as deep in talent as the infield, but it does contain a pair of players who are capable of carrying the load in Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis Jr.  Carroll is coming off a slightly disappointing season, in which he still hit 22 homers and stole 35 bases.  Once again, the Demigods will hope for a healthy season from Byron Buxton to give this group an extra boost.  If that doesn't happen, it may expose the only apparent weakness with the Demigods offensive roster:  a lack of depth in the outfield.  The Demigods will be looking for a better season from their pitchers if they hope to win their second title in three years.  These projections don't quite see that happening though.  The best pitching projection belongs to second round pick Shota Imanaga, who could immediately become the staff ace in a group of solid veterans.  Max Fried is taking his talents to New York.  Zac Gallen and Aaron Nola continue to do their thing too.  The Demigods no longer get to deploy Reynaldo Lopez as a reliever, but he's still a nice fit in the rotation.  All five of these guys have projections hovering around 4 Pitching PAR.  That's incredibly valuable.  However, they do seem to lack a true Cy Young contender.  Traditionally, the Demigods tend to punt the saves category.  They may have assembled a group that can scrape up a few points in that category this year though.  David Bednar is the only returner.  They added Pete Fairbanks and Aroldis Chapman in the draft as a pair who should be able to grab some saves as well.  They are also hoping for a repeat of the Lopez experiment last year, with another Braves rotation piece occupying a relief pitcher slot on their roster.  This year's version is Grant Holmes.  If he makes the All-Star team like Lopez did last year, we may be able to tag this as a foolproof plan.  The Demigods have all of the pieces to contend again this season.

     

  • Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

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    The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he's been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

    Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

    Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year's draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year's ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

    Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

    While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of '24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

    Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn't make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren't quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6'7" frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

    How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn't make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

    The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with '24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

    My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn't debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year's squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

    Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet's profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year's draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet's first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he's been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

    The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

    So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year's draft.  Hopefully we'll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

  • 2024 Season Preview: Part IV

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    With the first three full days of the MLB season in the books, we're off and running.  Mookie Betts is on pace to hit .611 with 130 home runs and 324 runs batted in.  Let's see if he can keep it up!  On a negative note, four of the top twelve picks from this month's draft have already found their way to the injured list.  The rash of injuries is something to keep an eye on as it *seems* like there are far more than usual this early in the season.

    Now to the final part of the 2024 DTBL season preview series.  This one will cover the three teams projected to finish at the top of the standings this year.  As I keep mentioning, the margins between these teams and the ones covered in the most recent article are razor thin.  Feel free to skip all the way to the bottom to see for yourself.  It is not particularly surprising to see any of these three teams in this part of the preview as they were all among the top five finishers a year ago.  These might be the three most balanced teams in the league as each of them are projected for at least 30 batting and pitching points, the only three teams that can make that claim.  Without further ado, here are the teams expected to finish in those top three spots.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (4th)
    • Home Runs - 5th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In - 5th (8th)
    • Runs Scored - 4th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases - 6th (4th)
    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (6th)
    • Wins - 6th (4th)
    • Saves - 6th (4th-T)
    • Strike Outs - 2nd (5th)
    • Total Batting Points - 3rd (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (6th)
    • Total Points - 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Jackalope category projected rankings point to a team that is well rounded with no obvious weakness.  They also show a team that appears to be a little bit better than last season's fifth place finish.  For what its worth, they were projected to finish third last year as well.  Offensively, they made small upgrades, but the top contributors figure to be the holdovers.  And of course, it all starts with reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.  He is projected for a ridiculous 14.4 PAR, which I think I can safely assume is a record since I've started doing these pre-season projections.  It is almost six points higher than all other hitters in the league.  Makes sense though, coming off a record setting 18.9 PAR season.  His Braves and Jackalope outfield teammate Michael Harris is no slouch either.  Adolis Garica, Anthony Santander and newcomer Jordan Walker fill out what might be the league's best outfield.  The infield is pretty solid too with veteran Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Jung holding down the corners and Luis Arraez and Dansby Swanson up the middle.  The catching duo of Cal Raleigh and Francisco Alvarez is back for another season.  As long as Acuna remains healthy, it is hard to imagine this not being one of the better offensive teams in the league.  The pitching projections may be a tad inflated though.  They were compiled before staff ace Gerrit Cole got hurt.  It remains unclear how much time he will miss.  He will certainly be tough to replace.  Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow are pretty solid top of the rotation pitchers in their own right.  First round draft pick Grayson Rodriguez is an exciting addition to this group.  They also opted to roll the dice on a couple currently injured pitchers coming off great seasons in Kyle Bradish and Kodai Senga.  The Jackalope do have enough starting pitching talent to survive a lengthy absence from Cole, but maybe drop the expectations a notch or two.  The bullpen is a bit of a wild card.  Raisel Iglesias is the only well established closer, but Jose Alvarado is likely to join him if the Phillies don't opt to go with a committee.  The health of the pitching staff is certainly the thing to watch early with the Jackalope.  If they come out unscathed, this will be a very dangerous team with understandably high expectations.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (6th)
    • Home Runs - 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)
    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases - 8th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average - 5th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (4th)
    • Wins - 7th (5th-T)
    • Saves - 2nd (2nd)
    • Strike Outs - 7th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points - 1st (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (5th)
    • Total Points - 2nd (3rd-T)

    Summary:

    The Kings already had a very good offense, but now they may have the league's best.  That is despite trading away their first round pick and not drafting a hitter until round three.  Of course, it was that trade of the first round pick that netted them Bo Bichette, who gives a big boost to a position that they were lacking production from a year ago.  The infield really has no weak spot now with Bichette at short, Marcus Semien at second, Austin Riley and Gunnar Henderson at third and the pair of Matt Olson and Rhys Hoskins at first.  They will benefit from having Hoskins back after missing all of last season with a knee injury.  Will Smith is one of the top catchers in the league.  They aren't quite as deep at that position having traded away Sean Murphy, but Logan O'Hoppe will look to replace most of his productivity.  The outfield has been largely rebuilt.  The two holdovers are hard to beat though with Mookie Betts and Randy Arozarena.  The red hot Betts will most likely move to the Kings crowded infield next year as he is moonlighting as a shortstop for the Dodgers this season.  To fill out the outfield, the Kings drafted Chas McCormick and Eloy Jimenez and brought back Tyler O'Neill later in the draft as well.  There are probably other teams with a better group of outfielders on the whole, but Betts alone makes this a very solid group.  The Kings also rebuilt a mediocre pitching staff.  Gone is longtime ace Max Scherzer.  Zack Wheeler and George Kirby are back though and should provide ace-like quality once again.  Michael King moves into the rotation as a full time starter for the first time in his career.  The exciting addition to this group is second round pick Cole Ragans.  The lefty who the Royals acquired from the Rangers in a trade last year was one of the top starters in baseball in the closing months of 2023.  Finally, the Kings picked up another Mariners starter in addition to Kirby, with Bryce Miller rounding out the rotation.  The success of these five starters could be what determines the Kings fate this season as it is the one group that isn't clearly among the best in the league.  The bullpen should be excellent, at least in terms of racking up saves.  Pete Fairbanks, Camilo Doval and Paul Sewald have solid grasps on closer roles, although Sewald is currently on the shelf with an injury suffered late in spring training.  Hunter Harvey may even have a shot at picking up saves if the Nats ultimately decide to go with their best pitcher in that role.  Despite pretty significant roster upheaval, the Kings should once again be in the mix for the league championship and at the very least should have an excellent chance of finishing in the top three for the fourth consecutive season.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (3rd)
    • Home Runs - 6th (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In - 7th (2nd)
    • Runs Scored - 3rd (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average - 1st (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins - 1st (1st-T)
    • Saves - 7th (6th)
    • Strike Outs - 6th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points - 4th (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd-T)
    • Total Points - 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    The Demigods finally won their first DTBL championship last season, doing so by being good at pretty much everything.  They finished in the top three of the league in every category except for saves and strikeouts.  These projections show them once again being strong across the board, but maybe taking a small step back in a few categories.  The trio of Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr and Corbin Carroll all head into this season as potential MVP candidates, at least if Ronald Acuna doesn't have another season like last year.  Carroll won the Rookie of the Year award and finished second in MVP voting.  He and Tatis lead a very strong outfield that brings back almost everyone from a year ago, although Tatis is actually new to the outfield in this league this season.  Seiya Suzuki and J.D. Martinez are back.  The one key addition is Brandon Nimmo.  The infield will once again be anchored by Freeman, Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve, three guys who have been making the Demigods infield a strength for many years.  It is unlikely they will get the same kind of production from their first round draft pick as they did a year ago with Carroll, but Spencer Steer is that guy this year.  They do have a bit of a problem with another draft pick, third baseman Noelvi Marte receiving an 80 game PED suspension.  Replacing him will be the same person who will be asked to replace him for the Reds, Jeimer Candelario.  Marte's second half return could give this infield a big boost though, assuming his prospect pedigree wasn't enhanced unnaturally.  The Demigods should get nice production from their catching duo of Willson Contreras and newcomer Yanier Diaz.  The Demigods have had a strong pitching staff for quite some time now and that should be the case again this season.  Their entire rotation from last season is back.  Zac Gallen, Max Fried and Aaron Nola have been reliable mainstays.  Joe Musgrove has been excellent when healthy too.  And last year's breakout star was Justin Steele, who unfortunately suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day.  When healthy, that's as strong of a 1 through 5 rotation as you will find.  I don't want to say the Demigods punt saves, but filling their bullpen with closers has never really been a priority for them.  They do bring back the excellent David Bednar and added Adbert Alzolay in the draft.  Like the Choppers, the Demigods will start the season with two actual starting pitchers filling relief slots with Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Whitlock.  This could give them an advantage in wins and strikeouts that isn't really captured in these projections.  While the margin is extremely tight, it is not surprising to see the defending champions at the top of these projections.  The Demigods are looking to be the first team to successfully defend their DTBL title since the Kings in 2019.  They certainly have a roster capable of doing just that.

     

    And with that, we have completed the 2024 DTBL season preview.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

     

    Good luck to everybody this season!  Happy Easter!

  • Dogs Make Room For EDLC

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    Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

    A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

    Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

    It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

    Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

    The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

    The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

    The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

    With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

    After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

    Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

    The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

    On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

  • Carroll Leads Elite Group

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    Entering the 2023 DTBL Draft back in March, many believed this was going to be one of the stronger rookie classes in recent memory.  Eight months later, that belief has been pretty much validated.  Three of the league’s top five finishers in Batting PAR this season were DTBL rookies.  Two of the top five in Pitching PAR as well, including a relief pitcher whose cohorts rarely sniff the top of that leaderboard.  All five of those rookies figure to be top contenders not only for this Rookie of the Year award, but Most Valuable Player and Cy Young as well.  If these players continue to perform at this level, this could go down as the best rookie class in league history.  Only one could win the league’s top rookie honor though.  As quite possibly the primary reason why the Demigods were able to win their first ever DTBL Championship, it is not a surprise that outfielder Corbin Carroll is the 2023 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    Following a short stint in the big leagues to close out the 2022 season, Carroll retained his MLB rookie eligibility and entered this season as the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, an award he would go on to win handily.  Known for his speed and modest power, Carroll exceeded almost all reasonable expectations for his first full season.  He swiped 54 bases, ranking second in the league behind Ronald Acuna.  He hit .285 with 25 home runs, 76 runs batted in and 116 runs scored.  As mentioned in the Demigods’ championship article, Acuna and Carroll became just the second and third players in DTBL history to steal 50+ bases with 25+ home runs in a single season.  The other was Hanley Ramirez in 2007 with the Mavericks in what happened to be his DTBL rookie season as well (he also won ROY that year).  While stolen bases absolutely exploded across the league this season, Carroll still stood well above most of his peers in that regard.

    The Demigods managed to land a franchise altering talent with the eighth pick of the draft.  That’s not to say that many of the teams who picked ahead of them are kicking themselves for their selections, because most of the players picked ahead of Carroll had outstanding seasons in their own right.  But Carroll was the perfect fit for a Demigods squad that needed an offensive boost.  He led the team in Batting PAR and stolen bases, accounting for about a quarter of the team’s totals in both of those categories.  No chance the Demigods would have finished anywhere near second place in stolen bases without him, and he helped them considerably in the other four offensive categories as well.  Carroll was a welcomed addition to a team that has had pretty much the same high caliber infield mix for quite some time, but had been a bit short on impact outfielders.  Along with teammate Freddie Freeman, Carroll should receive serious consideration for Most Valuable Player as well.

    The Rookie of the Year vote was quite interesting.  All ten ballots had the same five players on them.  There were plenty of other players who did not receive a single vote that would have been serious contenders most other years: American League Rookie of the Year winner Gunnar Henderson and his Orioles teammate Adley Rutschman, just to name two.  So while the ballots were consistent on the five players chosen, they were wildly different on which of the five received which vote.  Carroll was the convincing top choice, receiving six first place votes and three seconds for a total of 86 points.  The only other player to receive multiple first place tallies was Darkhorses pitcher Spencer Strider.  Strider led the league with 281 strikeouts, beating every other pitcher by more than 40 whiffs.  He also led the league with 20 wins, three more than the next best.  He received a pair of first place votes for this award, along with two seconds and five thirds, for a total of 62 points.  Right behind him is Mavericks shortstop Bobby Witt Jr, who actually had very similar numbers to Carroll.  Witt had five more homers (30) than Carroll and five fewer stolen bases (49).  Not sure we’ve ever simultaneously had a pair of rookies who packed so much punch with their elite stolen base totals.  Witt got one first place vote, three seconds and four thirds, finishing with 57 points.  The fourth and final player to receive a first place vote is Diamond Dogs outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  The first overall pick in the draft had a season that would have made him a lock for this award most years.  Rodriguez led all rookies with 32 home runs while stealing 37 bases as well.  He and Witt are the first rookies to join the 30/30 club since Acuna did it in 2019.  In this vote, Rodriguez was hurt by receiving just three top three votes:  one first and a pair of seconds.  That gave him a total of 43 points.  Finally, the fifth player who appeared on every ballot is Darkhorses reliever Felix Bautista.  The Mountain had one of the most dominant reliever seasons of all time, not just among rookies.  He saved 33 games while accumulated 110 strikeouts in just 61 innings, with a 1.48 ERA.  Unfortunately, he succumbed to an elbow injury in late August and will likely miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season.  Bautista only received fourth and fifth place votes, placing him fifth with 12 points.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    The tentative schedule for announcing the other two awards is next Monday, November 20th for Cy Young and Wednesday the 22nd for Most Valuable Player.  Expect to see all five of these Rookie of the Year vote receivers in the mix for one of those awards as well.

  • Demigods Reach Divinity

    Embed from Getty Images A year ago, the Moonshiners, who entered the DTBL in 1999, finally won their first league title on their 24th attempt.  That made the Demigods, who entered the league a year after the Moonshiners, the longest tenured team without a title.  And wouldn't you know it, for a second consecutive year, a team has won their first title in their 24th try.  It was not an easy task as no team ever took complete control of things and virtually every team was in the mix for the title at one point or another throughout the season.  By the stretch run though, it was down to two serious contenders.  In the end, the Demigods' league best offense pushed them over the top as they were able to hold off the Darkhorses to win by 4 1/2 points.  All other challengers fell double digits off the pace.  For the very first time, Dom's Demigods are the DTBL Champions.

    It has been a steady climb for the Demigods since their very disappointing last place finish in 2019, having improved their place of finish every season since then.  A year ago, they were a serious title contender but ultimately fell 10 1/2 points behind the Moonshiners to finish in third place.  It was a mediocre offense that kept them from reaching their ultimate goal.  They turned their focus to fixing that weakness through the draft by selecting hitters with their first four picks.  And boy did that plan pay off as they fairly easily led the league in batting points with 43.  The pitching staff was not quite as successful as a year ago, but only the Darkhorses exceeded their 32 1/2 pitching points.  Interestingly enough, their 75 1/2 total points was not a franchise high water mark.  In 2014, they accumulated 86 1/2 points while finishing in second place.  That total would have lapped the field this year.  In a very competitive league from top to bottom in 2023, the Demigods proved to be the best of the bunch.

    The Demigods offensive turnaround really started the minute they selected Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick in the draft.  Carroll would go on to have about as strong of a rookie campaign as we've ever seen, although several players can actually make that claim this year as it was an absolutely loaded rookie class.  Not many of the teams picking ahead of the Demigods should have big regrets about their selections.  But to get this kind of season out of an eighth overall pick is quite remarkable.  Carroll led all rookies, and finished second overall, with 10.7 Batting PAR.  He hit .285 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases.  Prior to this year, only one player in DTBL history had a season with 25+ HR and 50+ SB, Hanley Ramirez in 2007.  Of course, Ronald Acuna blew away both of those figures this year as well and fellow rookie Bobby Witt Jr fell just one stolen base shy of joining the club.  Carroll was a nice complement to a pair of longtime Demigods stalwarts who had their typical great seasons:  Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor.  Both topped 7 PAR making the Demigods the only team with three of the top 10 in the Batting PAR leaderboard.  After missing all of 2022 due to injury and then a PED suspension, Fernando Tatis Jr returned to elite form as a 25/25 HR/SB club member.  Jose Altuve returned in May from a broken thumb suffered in the WBC and put up his usual stellar numbers as well.  Early round draft picks from the Cubs outfield, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, were nice additions too.  This has been a very deep offensive roster for quite some time.  Carroll and crew took it to a new level this season.

    On the pitching side of things, the Demigods were able to patch together a solid group that was beset by injuries and underperformance from one of their long time aces.  Zac Gallen was easily their best pitcher, and among the best in the entire league.  He led the staff with 17 wins and 220 strikeouts.  His 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP were also best among qualified Demigods.  Perhaps the move that saved this staff from becoming a colossal disappointment was the free agent signing of Justin Steele the first week of the season.  He accumulated 5.4 PAR, second on the staff, in five months on the active roster.  Usual staff ace Max Fried had an injury plagued campaign that limited him to just 60 innings, while veteran Aaron Nola had an extremely disappointing year by his high standards.  A shoulder injury cost Joe Musgrove the final two months of the season, after having a very good year to that point.  So it was not a smooth ride for the Demigods rotation, but it all worked out in the end.  The bullpen has never really been a focal point for the Demigods and this year was no different.  David Bednar was outstanding though and helped push them to the middle of the pack in saves.  Top to bottom, it wasn't a special season for this pitching staff.  However, they were able to piece together a staff that was good enough to get the job done.

    The Demigods season got off to a really slow start.  They were near the bottom of the standings for most of the first two months of the season and were in ninth place as late as Memorial Day.  They moved up to the middle of the pack in early June and basically plateaued there for the better part of the middle two months of the season.  It wasn't until the last week of July that they moved into the top three and then really caught fire in early August.  On September 5th, they moved into first place for good, holding onto the top spot for the final 3 1/2 weeks of the season.  The Darkhorses proved to be their only competition down the stretch, with a squad that was basically the opposite of the Demigods:  league's best pitching staff but a mediocre offense.  The Demigods pitching was a bit better than the Darkhorses hitting though, which proved to be the difference.

    With the Moonshiners and Demigods both winning their first titles in their 24th seasons, there are no long time members of the league left without a championship.  The Komodos now have the distinction of being the longest tenured team without a title, but that drought is just seven years now.  The more notable droughts belong to the Cougars and Choppers who haven't won a title in their last 27 and 24 tries, respectively.  We will see if another streak ends in 2024.  Congratulations to Dom and the Demigods on the 2023 DTBL Championship!

  • 2023 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images Happy Opening Day Eve!  Let's get one more part of the 2023 season preview out of the way before the first pitch of the season.  The remaining parts will probably have to wait until at least Friday as I will be attending the Braves/Nats opener tomorrow afternoon and will likely be watching baseball all evening as well.

    Tonight, we're going to cover two more teams.  It is interesting that these two particular teams fall into this section of the preview series together because, with the exception of the champion Moonshiners, these were probably 2022's two most pleasant surprises.  So a fall down to the seventh and eighth places where these projections have them would be a bit disappointing.  At the same time, it also sets them up to be pleasant surprises again this season if they were to contend for the title again.  Not to spoil what's to come later this week, but these two teams are within 10 projected standings points of every team but one.  So we're already looking at teams that could very conceivably be in the championship hunt.  Here are the teams projected to finish in seventh and eight place in 2023.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (6th)
    • Home Runs - 2nd (7th)
    • Runs Batted In - 7th (6th)
    • Runs Scored - 4th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases - 1st (7th)
    • Earned Run Average - 7th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (2nd)
    • Wins - 7th (5th)
    • Saves - 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs - 9th (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points - 3rd (5th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (2nd)
    • Total Points - 8th (3rd)

    Summary:

    The first thing that sticks out when looking at the Demigods projections is how wildly different the rankings are compared to their '22 finish in a wide variety of categories.  Last year, the Demigods rode an elite power pitching staff to the second most pitching points in the league.  This year, they are projected to be near the bottom in their best pitching categories from last year (ERA, WHIP, Ks).  Meanwhile, they were a below average team in both power and speed on offense a year ago, but are now projected near the top in home runs and first place in stolen bases.  All of this would make sense if they underwent a massive roster retooling in the offseason and draft, but that didn't really happen.  Although, the return of Fernando Tatis Jr from injury and suspension will undoubtedly give their offense a boost.  Tatis returns to an infield that remains quite potent with Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor.  They will be without Jose Altuve for the first quarter of the season though after he broke his thumb getting hit by a pitch in the WBC.  First round draft pick Corbin Carroll should give a nice boost to an outfield that could use it.  His speed alone does give some credence to the stolen base ranking surge.  If the Demigods could ever get a full season out of Byron Buxton, that could be a game changer.  These projections do have him as their top outfield producer.  The pitching staff is essentially unchanged from last year, at least among the most important guys, making the fall in projected points quite peculiar.  The rotation brings back Max Fried, Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray, all of whom had good seasons a year ago and are projected to be well above average again this year.  They even added Kyle Wright to supplement this core.  As long as most of these guys stay healthy, I do not see them falling near the bottom of the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.  The bullpen is decent, but perhaps in a precarious spot with a couple closers on bad teams in David Bednar and Kyle Finnegan.  I think there is good reason for the Demigods to be optimistic following their third place finish a year ago, despite these projections.  This is a solid roster top to bottom.

     

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (4th)
    • Home Runs - 7th (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (2nd)
    • Runs Scored - 8th (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases - 6th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average - 5th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (9th)
    • Wins - 1st (4th)
    • Saves - 9th (5th)
    • Strike Outs - 4th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points - 5th-T (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points - 6th (6th-T)
    • Total Points - 7th (4th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos have a pretty exciting young core of hitters returning this season.  Much like the Demigods pitching staff, the Komodos have basically the same offense as last year.  Jose Ramirez remains one of the most dependable stars in the game and could be a legit 30/30 threat this season with the expected increase in steals across the league.  With a full season under his belt, Wander Franco could be on the verge of breaking into the upper stratosphere of players in '23.  He is paired with another consistently solid shortstop in Corey Seager.  Meanwhile, Willy Adames has quietly become a force at that position as well.  The newcomer to the infield is Thairo Estrada, who has a chance to become an elite power/speed guy too.  The Komodos probably have the best outfield of any team covered so far, led by Yordan Alvarez.  The duo of Luis Robert and Starling Marte are coming off injury plagued seasons, but both remain elite talents when healthy.  If Cody Bellinger were to return to his old form, this would be a tough outfield to beat.  The pitching staff has some question marks going into the season, but it is worth noting these projections already take into account that Walker Buehler is likely to miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Luckily for the Komodos, their two breakout pitching stars from a year ago, Shane McClanahan and Framber Valdez are back for more this season.  The Komodos pitching staff will probably go as the Astros go, because after McClanahan, their top three hurlers all play in Houston:  Valdez, Luis Garcia and first round pick Cristian Javier.  I can think of worse teams to be saturated with than the defending World Series champs.  It is hard to project what the Komodos will get from their relievers.  Devin Williams is the only sure thing closer on the roster.  Jhoan Duran and Rafael Montero (another Astro) have nasty enough stuff to help ERA, WHIP and strikeout totals even if they don't get many saves.  The Komodos will look to build off of their first ever top half finish a year ago.

     

  • Back To Basics

    Embed from Getty Images After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

    The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I've seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

    Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

    The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

    Strider's Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

    The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

    It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

    The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

    The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his '22 minor and major league season.

    Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn't exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn't have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

    Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

    To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn't map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

    Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I'm actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!