DTBL News

Category: Demigods

  • DTBL May Awards


    Once again, it’s time to check out the best of the best in DTBL through the month of May. There were some massive months, particularly from the hitters as you’ll see below. Unfortunately, the biggest loss from the list has been Jose Fernandez due to his UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery. Hopefully the injury epidemic is over for now, but this being baseball in 2014, no one seems safe.

    On a more positive note, the players below are a decent mix of guys powered almost solely by an incredible May, and guys who have been consistent year round. As the season plays out, it will be interesting to watch if the streaky guys can finally maintain their play over an entire season, or if the steady mashers will rise, and stay, at the top.

    All stats below are through May 31, and cover Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

    ROY:

    1. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .280 BA, 48 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
    2. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .344 BA, 32 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB
    3. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.932 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 66 Ks
    4. Michael Wacha, Gators – 1.064 WHIP, 2.45 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 75 Ks
    5. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.122 WHIP, 2.31 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 60 Ks

    There’s not much change in the rookie listings, as Donaldson, Teheran, and Gray all are carry overs from April. Yaisel Puig finally returned to his 2013 form, mashing 8 homers and driving in 25 runs while chipping in 4 steals, proving himself truly worthy of his number one overall pick this year. The other newcomer, Michael Wacha, almost made this list in April, but strong consistency vaults him past Sonny Gray in these rankings. Meanwhile, Josh Donaldson and Julio Teheran continued their stellar play from April, with Donaldson putting up almost identical numbers in May, and Teheran upping his strikeout totals to go with slightly depressed ratios.

    Other rookies of note include Anthony Rendon, whose slow May dropped him off the leaderboard, Gerrit Cole, Evan Gattis, Shelby Miller, and Brian Dozier, all of whom have decent to excellent numbers in certain categories, but lack that overall excellence exhibited by the top 5.

    Cy Young:

    1. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.758 WHIP, 1.68 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 92 Ks
    2. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.914 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 81 Ks
    3. Felix Hernandez, Jackalope – 1.024 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 83 Ks
    4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.121 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 76 Ks
    5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.932 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 66 Ks

    It’s hard to come up with words that can adequately express just how awesome the top pitches are this year. All five of these guys are bringing it in every category, tossing up video game style ratios with absurd strikeout totals. Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, and Zack Greinke, the April carryovers, have shown that their hot starts are no flukes. Felix Hernandez continues to show why everyone calls him King Felix, while Julio Teheran’s surprising rookie season is enough to vault him into the top five overall for pitchers.

    Unfortunately, everyone could see that Francisco Rodriguez would come back down to earth after his impeccable start. But, even so, there are no shortage of pitchers waiting in the wings. Tim Hudson seems to have found the fountain of youth, Yu Darvish is dealing again after neck issues, Chris Sale, Kyle Lohse, and other are all dealing. The two big surprises, though, are Mark Buehrle, who’s spinning a top 10 season from the free agent list, and Jeff Samardzija, who was leading the majors in ERA through May but only had one win to show for it.

    MVP:

    1. Nelson Cruz, Gators – .315 BA, 39 R, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB
    2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .316 BA, 40 R, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 4 SB
    3. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .352 BA, 45 R, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB
    4. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .280 BA, 48 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
    5. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .344 BA, 32 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB

    Nelson Cruz had a ridiculous May to jump him to the top of the MVP race. A .339 average, 13 homers, 27 RBI; all fantastic numbers. Giancarlo Stanton continues to smash the cover off the ball; one only wonders if he can stay healthy. Troy Tulowitzki continues to rake as well, with his .352 batting average still leading the majors to go along with solid stats all around.

    Then come the two big surprises on this list – Josh Donaldson and Yaisel Puig. Both DTBL rookies are putting up numbers that not only lead their draft class, but compete with the numbers of the established veterans. After this point in the season, it would be no surprise to see them challenging for bragging rights as the best of the best the rest of year.

    However, there is no shortage of competition for this race. The only thing keeping Edwin Encarnacion off this list was a slow April; his 16 home runs and 33 RBI in May were incredible. Carlos Gomez is the only significant power and speed guy, with 11 homers and 11 steals to go with other solid all around numbers. And there’s more, with Alexi Ramirez, Jose Bautista, Michael Brantley, and Paul Goldschmidt all waiting in the wings. In another version of the MVP list, any of those guys could be on it and they wouldn’t look out of place. Finally, Miguel Cabrera has finally remembered how to hit, and may soon take his accustomed place as a member of this elite company.

    Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

  • Misery Loves Company

    At the one quarter mark of the season, it is far too early to draw conclusions about how the season is going to turn out.  However, the early indication is that this is not going to be a good year for two teams with serious title aspirations.  The Kings and Mavericks were head and shoulders above the pack in 2013 and the pre-season projections indicated that they were the favorites again this year.  But nearly seven weeks into the season, they find themselves in the bottom two spots in the league standings.

    So what’s going on with these two recent powerhouses?  Well, their problems are fairly obvious and similar.  Both have had the strengths of their teams completely neutered by injuries.  Of course, disappointing performances from healthy players haven’t helped the cause either, but it is nearly impossible to remain competitive when fielding a short-handed roster.  At the risk of this turning into an article in which I whine about my team, that’s pretty much what’s going to happen.  So you’ve been warned.

    The Kings won the title last year on the strength of their offense.  They easily led the league in batting points and finished in the top three of all five offensive categories.  So far this year, they find themselves ninth in batting points and last place overall.  They are at or near the bottom of every offensive category except stolen bases.  Here are their currently injured offensive players:  Brandon Belt, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Beltran, Jay Bruce, Wilin Rosario, Michael Cuddyer, Aramis Ramirez and Omar Infante.  All of those players, except Ramirez and Infante, were major contributors on last year’s championship squad.  Belt still leads the team in home runs and was pretty much their only offensive player having a good year at the time of his injury.  Among their “healthy” hitters are two more guys who have dealt with injuries earlier this year:  Jose Reyes and Coco Crisp.  Only five offensive players have been in their lineup basically every day.  As much as some of these hitters have struggled this year, the Kings probably weren’t going to be among the leaders right now even with a healthy roster, but these injuries have basically sunk the ship.

    Oh, and the Kings pitching staff hasn’t been a model of clean living either.  Anibal Sanchez and Jason Grilli are currently on the DL (though both are expected back soon).  Three other injured pitchers have been dropped from the roster entirely to make room for injury replacements:  Patrick Corbin, David Hernandez and Nate Jones.  The first two are out for the year and Jones’ return is a complete mystery at this point.  At the time I am writing this, 13 of the 28 players who were on the Kings roster at the completion of the draft are on the disabled list.  That’s almost half the roster!

    I don’t think the Mavericks are feeling too sorry for the Kings though.  The Mavs haven’t had the same quantity of injuries, but the severity of the injuries they have suffered and the fact that they have mostly been consolidated to one specific position has created a grave situation for them as well.  Arguably, the Mavericks had the best pitching staff in league history last year.  Right now, they find themselves dead last in pitching points.  Five of their star pitchers have been dealing with significant injuries this year.  Matt Harvey probably won’t pitch this season following off-season Tommy John surgery.  Martin Perez became the latest of the long list of pitchers lost this year due to torn elbow ligaments.  Clayton Kershaw finally returned to action a couple weeks ago after missing more than a month.  Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker are both yet to pitch in the big leagues this season and their return dates remain unknown.  Of the starting pitchers who played a major role in the Mavericks’ super staff a year ago, only Stephen Strasburg has remained healthy throughout the early part of 2014 (knocking on wood w/r/t Strasburg).  The Mavericks haven’t been dealt the same type of blow to their offensive roster, but the recent loss of Matt Wieters to an elbow injury is problematic.

    The Kings and Mavericks find themselves in a bit of a predicament in terms of attempting to upgrade their rosters as well.  Due in large part to all of the aforementioned injuries, both teams are running out of available free agent signings.  The Kings are down to just four signings to use in the remaining 3/4 of the season while the Mavericks have only three at their disposal.  Of course, a few other teams are in a similar bind.  But it is safe to say these teams simply cannot afford many more injuries.  It’s too early to give up, but the Mavericks and Kings need healthier rosters to get themselves back in the mix.

    Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the biggest injury casualty of the season to date, which occurred earlier this week.  Demigods phenom pitcher Jose Fernandez was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday.  I think he and Perez bring the number of Tommy John casualties this season up to a staggering total of 20.  But Fernandez is the biggest loss yet.  After a dominating rookie campaign that earned him the NL Rookie of the Year award, the Demigods selected him with the second third pick in the draft in March.  He had already become the ace of the Demigods staff (well, he and Yu Darvish anyway) and arguably the best pitcher in the league.  At the time of the injury, he led the league in strikeouts.  According to Mike, he was the leading candidate for DTBL Rookie of the Year and very much in the mix for Cy Young as well.  Fortunately, he is still only 21 years old and the success rate in returning from Tommy John surgery is quite high.  So he still figures prominently in the Demigods future.  However, this is a serious blow to their 2014 title hopes.

    I would argue that this is the second straight year, and third time in the past five years, that baseball has lost it’s most electrifying, must-watch pitcher to a torn elbow ligament.  Last year it was Matt Harvey.  In 2010 it was Stephen Strasburg.  Fortunately, there are still a lot of great pitchers out there to watch on a daily basis, but it really stinks that we are missing full seasons from these guys at the peak of their powers.  I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again:  this elbow injury epidemic is hurting the game.  I continue to hope that the best minds in baseball and the medical community are able to solve this dilemma, even if the positive results take years to materialize.

  • DTBL April Awards


    In the past, there have been regular features regarding a player and pitcher of the week here in DTBL.  Unfortunately, keeping up with that arrangement for a full season is difficult.  Instead, what I’m aiming to do is do an awards column every month.  The goal will be to feature the top 5 players for each of the big DTBL categories – Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

    These won’t be monthly awards in that they’re honoring the top 5 every month.  Instead, they will be cumulative, to give a snapshot of who’s leading in the awards chase as the season goes on. In this way, it should be interesting to see who maintains their torrid starts, who drops off, and who comes on strong as the season goes along.

    With each category, you’ll find the 5 picks along with their stats. I’ll offer some brief commentary about the players involved, and comment on surprise players who don’t make the cut. I’ll rely on ESPN’s Player Rater for rankings if players are particularly close, and to help differentiate pitchers and hitters for ROY.

    All stats below are through April 30.

    ROY:

    1. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
    2. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .279 BA, 22 R, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB
    3. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.146 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 37 Ks
    4. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .316 BA, 19 R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB.
    5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.930 WHIP, 1.47 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 26 Ks

    In a decision that should surprise no one, Jose Fernandez claims the top spot in the ROY category. Stellar numbers across the board indicate no drop off from his stellar year last year. Josh Donaldson is one of the few bright spots on a dismal Moonshiners squad, as he’s proving worthy of his lofty draft selection. Sonny Gray’s numbers definitely overperform his draft slot; this holds true even more for Anthony Rendon, particularly as he gets bounced around various positions in the field. Finally, Julio Teheran’s ratio stats are incredible, with only wins and strikeouts holding him back from vaulting up the leaderboard.

    The surprises in this field are the disappointing starts from the top two picks, Wil Myers and Yasiel Puig. Puig is starting to heat up, but Myers is definitely struggling. In fact, rookie pitchers are far outstripping rookie hitters to this point, with Michael Wacha, Andrew Cashner, and others knocking on the door. Watch out for Brian Dozier as well; he’d be on this list if not for starting the season on the Moonshiner bench.

    Cy Young:

    1. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.778 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 42 Ks
    2. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
    3. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.766 WHIP, 1.15 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 50 Ks
    4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.047 WHIP, 2.04 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 46 Ks
    5. Francisco Rodriguez, Naturals – 0.769 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0 W, 11 SV, 17 Ks

    For Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, and Johnny Cueto, their numbers speak for themselves. Stellar WHIPs and ERAs, tons of strikeouts. Zack Greinke is right there with them. For all these pitchers, the question is, can they stay healthy and maintain this success for an entire year?

    The real surprise on this list is the return of Francisco Rodriguez. Undrafted going into the year, the Naturals picked up K-Rod off the scrap heap after the first week, and what a signing he’s been. A miniscule whip, a perfect ERA, 11 saves, and 17 strikeouts. Who knows if this renaissance will last, but he’s definitely deserving of this space through April.

    There is no shortage of pitchers lurking in the shadows, however. Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer both feature stats that wouldn’t look out of place here. On the flip side, Clayton Kershaw’s absence in April has probably doomed him from being considered for the award this year, while Stephen Strasburg’s ratios are uncommonly high.

    MVP:

    1. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .364 BA, 24 R, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB
    2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .269 BA, 19 R, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 2 SB
    3. Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses – .317 BA, 18 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB
    4. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .321 BA, 21 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 4 SB
    5. Albert Pujols, Jackalope – .279 BA, 21 R, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB

    Troy Tulowitzki’s tantalizing numbers show what he can do when healthy (and with the benefits of Coors Field). The question with him, as always: can he stay healthy? Giancarlo Stanton had a monstrous April with 8 homers and 31 RBI. One has to wonder what he could do in a smaller home park. Adrian Gonzalez has found his power again, smashing 8 homers in April; the same can be said for Albert Pujols and his 9 dingers. Of course, everyone knows what Mike Trout brings, and his inclusion on this list is no surprise.

    There is no shortage of players jockeying for position behind this quintet – Alexi Ramirez, Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz. And while Prince Fielder of the Moonshiners has been terrible with his move to Texas, the even bigger surprise is how off Miguel Cabrera has been. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on this list next month, but 2 home runs through April is uncharacteristically poor for a two years removed from a Triple Crown.

    Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

  • A Painful Start

    Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

    For several years now, it has felt like the number of injuries has been on a steady rise in Major League Baseball. I’m sure there are facts to back this up, but I’m so certain of it, I’m not going to waste my time researching it.  (That, and I’m lazy.)  This year, we’ve reached a new high (or should I say low?). The number of players who have been sidelined due to injuries in the first four weeks of the season is staggering. Actually, this all started well before Opening Day. In March, at least a half dozen pitchers had their seasons end prematurely due to torn ligaments in their elbows. Several other pitchers have been added to that list since the season started. And now position players are dropping like flies as well. The only good thing about these injuries is that no team has been immune. Of course, the level to which each team has been decimated varies greatly. And to a slight degree, this is reflected in the current league standings.

    It would be a lot quicker to list the DTBL teams who have not lost a player for the remainder of the season due to an injury. There are only three: the Choppers, Gators and Naturals. But even those three have been dealing with injuries to key players. Particularly the Choppers who just got Adrian Beltre back while Chris Sale remains disabled for at least another week and Mark Trumbo figures to miss at least another month. Those are three of their top players. The Gators are about to get Hisashi Iwakuma back in their rotation for the first time this season and they are dealing with some minor injuries to offensive players as well. The Naturals have probably been the luckiest team in the league, from a health standpoint. But even they currently have three players on the DL.

    It’s kind of a disaster for the rest of the league. The two top teams from last season have both been dealing with all sorts of pitching injuries. The Mavericks knew they would be without Matt Harvey this year. But losing Clayton Kershaw after one start was a huge blow. Meanwhile, Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker are yet to make their season debuts. Same for Manny Machado offensively. The good news for the Mavericks is that all of those players are expected to return soon.  The Kings may not have had as significant of injuries early on, but the sheer volume is starting to catch up to them now. Anibal Sanchez and Jason Grilli hit the DL last week, joining teammates Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Cuddyer and Nate Jones. They also lost two draft picks to Tommy John surgery within days of their selections: Patrick Corbin and David Hernandez, who both happen to play for the Diamondbacks as well. Several other Kings are dealing with day-to-day injuries too. It isn’t pretty.

    The Cougars also lost a pair of pitchers to torn elbow ligaments: Kris Medlen and Josh Johnson. They are currently dealing with injuries to two of their top sluggers in Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton. Casey Janssen hasn’t pitched yet this year either. Then there are the Darkhorses who have managed to remain near the top of the standings despite another Tommy John casualty in Matt Moore. Mike Minor will finally take a big league mound for the first time this season later this week. But their biggest blow may have come this past weekend when Bryce Harper tore a ligament in his thumb and will be out until at least early July. Oh, Russell Martin is on the DL for them too.

    How about the Demigods? Well, things were looking bleak in March when Doug Fister, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto were all dealing with injuries. But Cueto has been excellent and Hamels is back now too. Fister should return next week. So all in all, they are in decent shape. Except they too lost a pitcher, Bobby Parnell, to a torn UCL. Kole Calhoun is currently out with an ankle injury as well. The Jackalope are hopeful about the return of Aroldis Chapman who suffered quite possibly the most gruesome injury of the spring when he took a line drive to the head. On the other hand, Avisail Garcia is out for the year with a torn labrum and Jurickson Profar won’t make his season debut for at least another month. Finally, we have the Moonshiners. Just one season ending injury for them: Brandon Beachy who has undergone Tommy John surgery for the second time in three years and has pitched just 111 innings since the Moonshiners drafted him in 2012. They are also without second round pick Wilson Ramos who is recovering from a broken hand.

    So there you go. That’s a pretty staggering list of injuries, but there are actually plenty of others I didn’t mention who are currently injured or have already returned from previous DL stints, including a whole bunch of current free agents.  Everyone has their own theory on why all of these injuries are occurring, particularly when it comes to the torn elbow ligaments of pitchers.  I don’t think there is a conclusive theory out there yet though.  I certainly hope some of the best minds in sports medicine and therapy will be able to figure this out eventually, because it is taking a toll on the sport to see so many of the best players having full seasons in the middle of their primes completely wiped out.

    There is a little bit of good news though. Injuries usually peak early in the season and settle down as the year goes on. So there is hope for that to occur this year too. But there are already a whole bunch of players who won’t be returning until 2015. Let’s all hope for a healthier May.

  • 2014 Season Preview: Part III

    Demigods outfielder Carlos Gomez

    Now we’re starting to get to the teams that absolutely expect to contend for the DTBL title this year.  The third part of the 2014 season preview is the one I’ve most been looking forward to writing.  Here we will examine two teams who are both expected to make huge leaps over their 2013 performances.  These were teams that finished in the bottom three of the league a year ago, but are projected to be serious title contenders this season.  It often comes as a surprise when teams jump this many places in the standings, but neither of these projections are surprising to me.  These teams had some very obvious, and easily remedied problems which should not resurface again in 2014.  In fact, their struggles a year ago could turn into blessings in disguise because they allowed them to grab absolute studs at the beginning of this month’s draft.  Here are the teams projected to finish fourth and third in the league this year.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 6th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (10th)
    • Wins – 4th (9th)
    • Saves – 7th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (10th)
    • Total Points – 4th (8th)

    Summary:

    In my recap of the first round of the draft, I hinted at the Demigods being a potential sleeper team this year.  I feel somewhat vindicated for that comment because of this projection.  The Demigods had the worst pitching staff in the league in 2013, at least in terms of pitching points.  But that was not truly indicative of the kind of talent on their staff.  Yu Darvish was the staff ace, earning the DTBL Rookie of the Year award.  The rest of the staff struggled due to injuries, poor performances and maybe some bad luck.  With the third pick in this year’s draft, they added the young and exciting Jose Fernandez, immediately boosting the prestige of the pitching staff.  He’ll join Darvish, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto to create a rotation that will surely earn them a lot more pitching points this year.  Unfortunately, several of those guys are dealing with injuries right now, but none appear to be too serious.  Trevor Rosenthal gives them a possible stud closer too, something they didn’t have last year.  The Demigods offense was actually quite good a year ago, so if they can maintain their form there, this should be a very good team.  Carlos Gomez will attempt to build on his ’13 campaign which saw him become an elite fantasy player.  This is one of the most talented squads the Demigods have ever put together.  Let’s see if it pays off.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th-T)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (7th)
    • Wins – 6th (8th)
    • Saves – 9th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
    • Total Points – 3rd (10th)

    Summary:

    2013 was a season from hell for the Jackalope.  For quite some time now, they have relied on one of the league’s best pitching staffs combined with an offense carried by Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun.  But with those two players being rendered nearly useless last year, the Jackalope had no chance of being competitive.  Assuming those two are at least a decent facsimile of their past selves, last year should turn into just a blip on the radar of a perennial contender.  Their prize for finishing dead last was Yasiel Puig.  He will try to pick up some of the slack for whatever Pujols and Braun may have lost.  The Jackalope are projected to make a worst to first jump in home runs, and nearly the same in RBI and runs too.  Besides the players already mentioned, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton are a big reason for that.  This team has some serious star power.  The pitching staff is definitely not what it was a few years ago, but it is still quite strong.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are two of the most dependable pitchers on the planet.  The bullpen is a potential weakness though.  Aroldis Chapman will likely miss the first couple months of the season after getting hit in the head with a liner during a spring training game.  That leaves Jim Johnson as the only certain closer on the roster.  This team has a lot of players who will be fun to watch.  There is almost no chance of them finishing at the bottom of the standings again in 2014.

  • Bold New Faces

    Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

    Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

    The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

    The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

    With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

    Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

    Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

    The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

    With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

    The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

    There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

    With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

    The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90’s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

    Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

    For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

    The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.

  • Darvish Wins ROY

    Demigods pitcher Yu Darvish

    Continuing a recent trend, a large number of pitchers were exceptionally dominant in the 2013 baseball season.  Among DTBL newcomers, pitchers ruled the season as well.  In coming up with the 20 finalists for the Rookie of the Year award, I usually try to include a few more hitters than pitchers since they occupy a larger number of roster spots.  However, that simply wasn’t possible this year with so many great rookie pitchers in the league.  One of them clearly stood out among the rest though.  Demigods pitcher Yu Darvish is the 2013 Rookie of the Year.

    Darvish was the shining light in an otherwise dim rotation.  The Demigods finished last in the league in pitching points.  Everyone but Darvish should be blamed for that.  Darvish led the entire league in strikeouts (277), finished fourth in ERA (2.83) and eighth in WHIP (1.07).  He won 13 games.  His strikeout total destroyed the Demigods single season franchise record, which was previously held by Cole Hamels (216).  277 is the most strikeouts a DTBL pitcher has recorded since Randy Johnson had 290 in 2004.  I haven’t 100% confirmed this, but I believe it is also a league rookie record.

    It was a pretty easy choice for the Demigods when they picked Darvish with the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft.  He was the second pitcher taken, immediately after Kris Medlen.  He wound up being the most productive player out of the first round class by a fairly comfortable margin.  While he was not able to turn around the Demigods pitching staff by himself, he certainly gives them a solid piece to build around next year.

    Darvish received nine out of the ten first place votes.  He also received one second place vote, making him the only player to appear on all ten ballots.  He finished with 97 points, making him a clear cut winner of the Rookie of the Year award.  Pitchers dominated the vote, finishing in the top three spots.  The Mavericks’ young fireballer Matt Harvey came in second place with five second place votes and 46 total points.  An elbow injury derailed his season in late August, effectively handing the award to Darvish.  Harvey probably would have been the favorite to win this award had he stayed healthy.  Both Darvish and Harvey figure to get some love in the Cy Young vote as well.  Finishing in third place with 38 points was the Gators’ Hisashi Iwakuma.  Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list, the 7th round pick Iwakuma was among the league leaders in ERA and WHIP.  Next, we finally have a hitter.  Gators shortstop Jean Segura received the one first place vote that didn’t go to Darvish.  He notched 32 points to finish fourth.  Segura was the Gators 8th round pick.  So with consecutive picks in the second half of the draft, the Gators managed to pick two of the top four rookies of the year.  Finally, rounding out the top five is Mavericks third baseman Manny Machado.  Machado and Harvey gave the Mavericks their own pair of rookie sensations.

    Click here to view the full Rookie of the Year voting results.

    The schedule for the announcement of the other two awards is not firm, but I plan to announce the Cy Young award winner either tomorrow or Friday, with the Most Valuable Player award announcement coming next Monday.

  • Not That Bad

    Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

    The DTBL season ended more than a month ago, so now seems like the perfect time to finish part 3 of my 2013 season review.  The first part was a recap of the Kings’ championship season.  Part two covered the other teams who were title contenders through most of the season.  Finally, we have the other six teams who were never really in the race.  This isn’t to say that 2013 was a terrible year for all of them, just that there was a fairly noticeable gap between the top four and these six most of the year.  While a few of these teams were surely disappointed in how their season went, none of them were truly awful.  The Jackalope finished in last place, but their 35.5 points was the second highest total for a last place team in league history.  So, while none of these teams were particularly close to competing for the title this season, it is also fair to say that none of them need major reconstruction to be right in the thick of the race next year.

    Of these six squads, the team that is probably most satisfied with their 2013 season is the Cougars.  They finished in fifth place, making this the first time they have finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  A much improved offense complemented an already strong pitching staff.  The main reason for the offensive surge was Chris Davis.  The second round steal led the league in home runs (53) and RBI (138).  He figures to get strong consideration in the upcoming MVP vote.  Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright helped the Cougars finish second in ERA.

    Another team that made great strides this year would be the Darkhorses.  As many assumed they would, they managed to bounce back from the 2012 season from hell when everything that could possibly have gone wrong did.  Luck still wasn’t completely on their side as they had to fight through a bunch of key injuries, especially early.  But finishing sixth a year after coming in last is obviously a big step in the right direction.  They more than doubled their ’12 point total as well.  Bryce Harper had a nice rookie year for the Darkhorses, but they expect even bigger things from him next year.  Keeping Hanley Ramirez healthy for an entire season will be key as well.  On the pitching side of things, it is still a bit of a work in progress, but Matt Moore and Mike Minor had solid years.

    Following two teams who made big improvements this year was a team that went in the opposite direction.  The Moonshiners finished in fourth place a year ago, but were just a 1.5 points away from winning their first title.  Obviously, they had hoped to compete for the title again this year, but it wasn’t to be.  They finished in a disappointing seventh place.  Other than the surprising A.J. Burnett, all of the Moonshiners pitchers failed to meet expectations.  Well, Jered Weaver was pretty good too, but didn’t put up the kind of numbers they needed from a staff ace.  On offense, the roster actually looks pretty good, but they lacked any one player having an especially huge season.  This is really a hard team to diagnose.  They don’t look like a seventh place team.  But they are lacking that star player to take them to the next level.

    The Demigods took a small step backwards this season, dropping one spot to eighth place.  Their weakness is obvious:  pitching.  They finished with just eight pitching points, the lowest total in the league.  This was a surprising result considering their first round pick, Yu Darvish, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in the league.  But the rest of the rotation was a mess and they finished the season without a closer on the roster.  The amazing thing about the Demigods is that they finished in eighth despite having the second most batting points in the league.  They got solid years out of almost all of their offensive players, led by newcomer Carlos Gomez and veterans Evan Longoria and David Ortiz.  If they can just figure out their pitching problems, they are not far from being a contender.

    I’m not sure anyone is ever pleased about finishing in ninth place, but the Gators were really a much improved team over their ’12 squad which also finished ninth.  Through the draft and trades, they were able to significantly improve their weak offense and have plenty of good, young talent moving forward.  Second overall draft pick Yoenis Cespedes suffered through a bit of a MLB sophomore slump, but still put up strong fantasy numbers.  But the real steals for the Gators were a pair of shortstops:  Jean Segura (8th round) and Andrelton Simmons (4th round).  Their in-season trade to acquire Starling Marte is looking pretty solid too.  The Gators pitching staff, previously their strength, was a bit of a disappointment though.  Staff ace C.C. Sabathia had one of the worst seasons of his career.  If they can get him to bounce back next year, this will be a very dangerous team.

    Finally, we have the Jackalope.  To be blunt, this season was a train wreck for them.  Just two years removed from a league championship and a year after being in the title race until the last day of the season, the Jackalope hit rock bottom this year, finishing dead last.  The offense was atrocious and the pitching staff, the league’s best the previous three years, was largely disappointing as well.  It’s not too hard to figure out why their offense struggled so much.  They were without their two best players for a good portion of the season.  Ryan Braun fought through injuries before finally serving his PED suspension.  And Albert Pujols was simply not himself at any point this season, eventually causing him to miss the last couple months of the year.  The Jackalope finished a distant last place in batting points, despite getting a breakout season from Paul Goldschmidt.  He was pretty much the lone bright spot though.  Just like the Darkhorses a year ago, it is hard to imagine this team staying down at the bottom very long though.  They have way too much talent for that.  Plus, they are going to have the first pick in an absolutely loaded draft next spring….

    … Which leads me to my final thought.  All six of these teams are going to be able to add potential superstars with their first round picks next year.  I’m not going to name names, but look no further than the top MLB Rookie of the Year contenders to get an idea of what kind of talent is coming.  If those picks pan out, I won’t be writing about these teams in the “non-contenders” recap next year.

    Congrats to the Red Sox on their World Series title.  With that, the off-season is officially upon us.  The 2013 DTBL Awards ballot will be posted in the next couple of days with announcements of the winners coming over the next few weeks.

  • Biogenesis Fallout

    Free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez

    It has been about two weeks since all of the Biogenesis related suspensions were handed out by Major League Baseball, so I am very late to the party.  For the most part, I am tired of the story and have nothing particularly insightful to add.  But there are pretty significant baseball implications here, so I feel the need to write a little bit about it.  Fortunately, I will be able to quickly bury this post with a much more interesting article (to me) coming in the next day or two.  In case you didn’t notice, there was a pretty big trade made before the deadline last week.  But first, here are some of my Biogenesis thoughts along with the impact the suspensions will have on the DTBL.

    I have to admit that I was very skeptical of the entire Biogenesis story when it was made public earlier this year.  It seemed far too coincidental that many of the players being implicated in the story just happened to be most of the players who had tested positive for PEDs and/or served drug related suspensions last year.  As it turns out, there was a good reason for this.  All of these players were receiving their PEDs from the same source:  Tony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic.  Many have stated that these suspensions and subsequent admissions of guilt are a black eye on the sport of baseball.  I don’t see it that way.  In fact, I think it is somewhat encouraging that most of the players suspended in the last year and a half had ties to this now defunct clinic.  This is not to say I believe PEDs have been completely eradicated from the league now that Biogenesis is no more.  But I believe these suspensions are a positive step towards cleaning up the game.  Cheaters are getting caught and punished.  That is more than could be said as recently as five years ago.  Also, while there is still plenty of room for improvement in the drug testing and punishment program, MLB is so far ahead of the other three major professional sports leagues in this regard, it isn’t even worth comparing.  That MLB seems to take far more heat than the NFL for having a PED problem is completely ridiculous.

    To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of the Biogenesis scandal has been the way it has been covered by the media.  Not only the overwhelming number of articles on the topic, but the extent to which specific guilty players have been skewered as cheaters and liars.  They are indeed both of those things, but this isn’t new information.  Almost everyone besides die-hard Brewers fans and Aaron Rodgers knew Ryan Braun was guilty of taking PEDs when he avoided a suspension on a pure technicality following a failed drug test.  The fact that he is now admitting his guilt after accepting a 65 game suspension is not particularly interesting news, in my opinion.  He certainly owes a major apology to the sample handler whose character he attacked, among allegedly much worse things, as the Braun drama continues.  And the Brewers fans who have stuck by Braun throughout his career have every right to be angry.  But other than that, I don’t see Braun as much more of a villain than any of these other suspended players, past or present.  Almost all of these guys attempted to do whatever they could to avoid punishment, just as Braun did.  Heck, somewhat hilariously, Melky Cabrera tried to create an entire web site to prove his innocence.  But he seems to have been forgiven as he is now yesterday’s news.  Braun and Alex Rodriguez just happen to be the biggest names in this story, and are therefore receiving the most attention.

    And then there is ARod and his pending 211 game suspension.  I am really curious to see what kind of dirt MLB has on him, because on the face of it, the largest drug related suspension in league history seems a bit harsh for a player who has not tested positive under the current drug testing regime.  I have no opinion on how much of a suspension he deserves without knowing exactly what he did, but again I state that almost all of these players have taken steps to try to duck the long arm of the law.  Just how serious ARod’s offenses were in comparison will be interesting to see.  I would hope the fact that pretty much everybody wants him to just go away, including his own employer, had no bearing on the decision to give him this unprecedented year and a half ban.  Just because everyone hates him isn’t enough of a reason to cast him out to sea.  But the willingness of the rest of these players to accept their punishments leads me to believe that MLB’s evidence is pretty solid.  So the ARod saga continues.

    Now for the DTBL impact of Biogenesis.  Despite some huge names going down in this scandal, it doesn’t appear to be particularly likely to swing the DTBL title race in one direction or another.  Almost all of the suspended players happen to be on non-contending teams.  Losing Braun is just another major blow in a nightmare season for the Jackalope.  They will finish this season without the two main faces of their franchise (Braun and Albert Pujols, who was just ruled out for the season due to his foot injury).  The Moonshiners will be without the services of Jhonny Peralta, but they too are in the midst of a disappointing season.  Nelson Cruz will be out of the Gators lineup for 50 games.  The Gators currently sit in last place, but seem to be building a more competitive team for the future.  Losing Cruz won’t really change much.  Ditto for Everth Cabrera and the Demigods.  The one suspended player on a contending team is Jesus Montero of the Naturals.  However, he had been sent to AAA a couple months ago and didn’t figure to play much of a role down the stretch for the Naturals anyway.  Finally, Alex Rodriguez has been a free agent all season after the Kings finally cut him last winter.  Interestingly enough, there is a chance a DTBL team might take a flyer on him before the year is over since he is finally healthy and doesn’t figure to have his appeal ruled upon until very late in the season, if not after it.  Despite receiving the biggest punishment of any Biogenesis player, he may be the only one on a DTBL active roster in September.  Well, maybe Melky Cabrera (Gators) too since he did not receive any additional punishment having served his suspension last year.  Same for Yasmani Grandal (Naturals) , but he’s out for the year with a knee injury anyway.

    To close things out, in regards to Biogensis, I am going to steal a line from The Band Perry:  All I want to be is done!

  • 2013 Season Preview: Part I

    Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman

    Last year, Marc provided some very interesting team previews based on stats from multiple projection systems.  I have decided to do something similar this year, however, due to time constraints, I only used a single set of projections:  ZiPS.  I’m not an expert on these different projection models, so I have no idea if ZiPS was the best choice, but that’s what I went with.  ZiPS does not do saves projections (or if they do, it isn’t available on FanGraphs), so I used Steamer Projections for that category only.  I could write a very lengthy article on why these stat projections aren’t the greatest for predicting fantasy results, so take all of these projections with several grains of salt.  However, I also don’t like to make enemies by publishing my own predictions, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

    Here is a brief explanation of my methodology.  I used the projections for all 28 players on each team’s roster to compute team totals in all 10 of the categories we use.  However, I didn’t want to leave it at that since there are a bunch of differences in the composition of the extra five players on each roster.  For example, it would figure that teams with a bench full of hitters would outpace teams with mostly extra pitchers in the offensive counting categories (HR, RBI, R, SB).  So what I decided to do was to multiply the team totals in those four categories by the ratio of 14 over the total number of offensive players on the roster.  Theoretically, this would mean I’m only counting full season stats for 14 players, the regular DTBL batting roster size.  I did this rather than simply subtracting players who figure to spend part/most of the season on the bench because I didn’t want to make any personal predictions on roster moves.  The biggest flaw in doing it this way is that every player contributes to the team projections, even if they aren’t expected to see much playing time.  But I think this is better than adding full season projections for every single player.

    My methodology was slightly different for pitchers.  Doing it the same way as I did for hitters would have been slightly problematic because it would cause significant differences between teams with extra starting pitchers vs. teams with only extra relievers.  So instead, I calculated what the average number of innings pitched was for each DTBL team in 2012 (1,239) and assumed each team would come close to that number again this year.  So the ratio used to multiply the counting categories (W, SV, K) was 1,239 divided by the team’s projected innings total.  The biggest flaw here is with teams that plan on using an extra starting pitcher in a RP slot.  It is safe to assume those teams will accumulate more innings, but these projections assume the team IP totals are all the same.  So that is another caveat to consider when diagnosing your team’s projections.

    Despite the flaws, I do believe these projections can be useful in identifying relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.  Perhaps I will share the full projections when I finish with the team previews.  In these previews, I will provide the team’s projected ranking in each category as well as the overall predicted order of finish.  Then I will give some of my own thoughts about the team, and perhaps explain some instances where I feel the projections are wrong.  I will go in the reverse order of the predicted standings, doing a few teams each day for the next few days.  So, without further ado, here is the team projected to finish in last place…

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
    • Wins – 6th (9th)
    • Saves – 1st (2nd-T)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (4th)
    • Total Points – 10th (9th)

    Summary:

    Obviously, nobody wants to be last in a projection.  However, despite the 10th place prediction, there are encouraging signs for the Gators.  First, they just completed their best draft in many years, acquiring some very good, young talent with players like Yoenis Cespedes, Will Middlebrooks and Andrelton Simmons.  Next, they are projected to finish with 41 points, which would be an improvement over last season.  They have had the worst offense in the league three years running, but there is a decent chance that streak will stop this year.  Almost all of the offensive players they drafted this year will be upgrades over their counterparts from 2012.  The pitching projections are a little surprising because the Gators had a very underrated staff a year ago.  They still have the deepest stable of closers in the league.  Their rotation is a big question mark, but there is potential to meet or exceed last year’s numbers.  I think this will be a much improved Gators squad, even if the place of finish doesn’t necessarily reflect that.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
    • Wins – 2nd (8th)
    • Saves – 10th (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
    • Total Points – 9th (7th)

    Summary:

    Last year, the Demigods championship hopes were sabotaged by a weak pitching staff.  If these projections are to be believed, that could be the case again this year.  However, this is one team where my methodology for computing the pitching stats was harmful because it appears they will use a sixth starting pitcher (Brett Myers), meaning their wins and strike out totals should be higher than projected.  Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto form a pretty solid top three, but the rest of the staff will need to exceed expectations.  They only have one closer, Brandon League, who could lose his job any minute.  So saves appears to be a write off category.  Offensively, the Demigods have a solid squad, but they need to stay a lot healthier than they did last year.  Look for huge seasons out of Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey.  Freddie Freeman is a major breakout candidate too.  9th place would be a pretty big disappointment considering how much talent is on this roster.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
    • Wins – 9th (10th)
    • Saves – 3rd (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
    • Total Points – 8th (10th)

    Summary:

    It has been two long years since the Darkhorses 4-peat.  Last year in particular, was one long nightmare in which everything that could have possibly gone wrong did.  They nearly set the low water mark for total points and finished dead last in all five pitching categories.  There is no way to go but up from there.  And this team is a safe bet to do just that.  But the injuries are already starting to mount up, starting with the news that Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which came out not long after our roster cuts were made.  Relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Jonny Venters are also headed to the DL to start the year.  And on offense, Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez will miss significant time to begin the season.  Their healthy pitchers are mostly high strike out guys who hope to improve their ERA and WHIP numbers.  A strong comeback year for Tim Lincecum would go a long way towards fixing this team.  I’m not sure what to think about the Darkhorses offense, but we saw last year how quickly one young superstar can turn around an entire squad (Mike Trout, Mavericks).  The Darkhorses hope to get a similar boost from Bryce Harper.  He just may be up to the task.  Hopefully, these early injuries won’t bury the Darkhorses before they ever get started, but I think they will certainly improve upon last year’s disaster.

    That’s it for tonight.  Tomorrow, I’ll run down at least three more teams and finish things up on Monday and Tuesday.

    Enjoy tomorrow night’s MLB opener and have a happy Easter!