Archive for the ‘Draft’ Category

Bold New Faces

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90′s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.

No Clowning Around

Monday, March 11th, 2013

Darkhorses outfielder Bryce Harper

Who should the Darkhorses have picked with the first selection in the 2013 DTBL Draft?  That’s a clown question, bro.  With one of the clearest cut decisions in recent memory, the Darkhorses selected 20 year old outfielder Bryce Harper.  The Nationals young phenom burst onto the scene last summer at the ripe age of 19 and proceeded to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.  He bounced back from a mid-summer slump to tear the league apart on his way to a .270 average with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  The home run total was the second most by a teenager in MLB history.

A year after most of the league made the mistake of allowing Mike Trout to slip to the second round, the Darkhorses ensured that the same wouldn’t happen this time around.  Of course, Harper has much higher expectations heading into this season than Trout did a year ago since he has a roster spot locked up and is even expected to hit third in the lineup for one of the top World Series contenders.  Although both are legitimate five tool players, Harper does have a slightly different skill set than Trout.  Harper is projected to be the bigger power threat while Trout has unmatched speed on the bases and in the outfield.  The sky is the limit for Harper, and his bust potential seems extremely low.

Harper is only the second player to become a first overall selection in both the MLB and DTBL drafts.  Alex Rodriguez is the other, which makes it interesting that Harper is entering the league at the exact same time as ARod’s 16 year career with the Kings is coming to an end.  I’m sure the Darkhorses would be happy to get at least a decade and a half of service out of Harper.  I’m 99% positive that Harper was the youngest player to ever be drafted by a DTBL team in the first round (maybe any round), an honor he held for less than 24 hours (more on that later).  The Darkhorses are looking to bounce back from two straight disappointing, injury-riddled seasons.  Harper has the potential to quickly accelerate the rebuilding process, much like Trout did for the Mavericks a year ago.

Last year, the Gators had the tall order of trying to rebuild without the benefit of a first or second round pick.  This year, they held onto those picks and wisely used them to pick up a few of the best young players in the draft.  With the second overall pick, they selected Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who made an immediate impact in his first big league season, hitting several prodigious home runs early in the season.  He somewhat quietly proceeded to have an outstanding season that surely would have earned him a Rookie of the Year nod if it weren’t for some guy named Trout.  Cespedes slugged 23 home runs with 82 RBI and 16 steals.  Like Harper, he has big time power potential with the ability to add a bunch of stolen bases too.

If Kris Medlen can come anywhere close to matching his 2012 numbers, the Cougars might suddenly have one of the league’s top pitching staffs.  Medlen, a Tommy John surgery survivor, started last season in the bullpen, but then became nearly unhittable after moving into the rotation.  He won 10 games with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP.  The Cougars selected him with the third pick in the draft.  The Demigods then followed with another starting pitcher, Yu Darvish.  Along with Cespedes, Darvish was the other key foreign import to the big leagues last season.  He displayed overpowering stuff, striking out 221 hitters in just 190 innings.  He should help the Demigods recover from a season that was largely derailed by a shaky pitching staff.  The Choppers took the Cubs young first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, with the fifth pick.  Rizzo had been a highly touted prospect for a number of years, before finally breaking through with a solid season for his third MLB organization.  Rizzo figures to be a centerpiece in the Cubs lineup for some time to come.

For the most part, the top five picks were fairly clear cut.  I know those five players were the top five on my draft board, and I suspect I’m not alone.  But I felt there was a significant drop-off in available talent after those five.  Which was kind of fitting because the next five teams all came within an eyelash of winning the championship last year anyway.

For the second straight year, the Jackalope were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie.  With the sixth pick, they took second baseman Danny Espinosa, who spent the last two seasons with the Kings.  Espinosa spent almost the entire ’12 season on the Kings bench, but only because he was at a log jammed position.  He actually had a very solid year and provides significant power and speed for a middle infielder.  He seems to be getting better each year too.  Next, the Moonshiners selected closer Fernando Rodney, the obvious #1 relief pitcher on the board.  Rodney re-emerged as an elite closer for the Rays, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA.  Seventh is the earliest a relief pitcher has been selected since 2010.  But the Moonshiners were in desperate need of a second closer and only had two picks in the first rounds with which to acquire one.

For the fourth straight years, the Mavericks had multiple first round picks.  This time, they didn’t acquire the second one until just before they were on the clock with the eighth pick.  They dealt one member of their stable of first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for the ninth overall pick.  So with two consecutive picks, the Mavericks did what has become their trademark:  they selected two young prospects, second baseman Jurickson Profar and third baseman Manny Machado.  Both have big upside, but Machado figures to make a more immediate impact since Profar is temporarily without a position in Texas, behind Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.  Of course, this is a similar situation that Mike Trout was in a year ago.  Profar just turned 20 a few weeks ago, which is notable for a couple reasons.  First, I believe it makes him the youngest player in DTBL history (he’s a few months younger than Harper).  Next, he is the first DTBL player to have been born after the inaugural DTBL Draft in January of 1993.  So he’s actually younger than this league!  (Damn, we’re getting old)

For the second straight year, the Kings used the first round to try to fill their gaping hole at first base.  But this time, they did so by trading their pick for Ike Davis.  Davis got off to a horrific start in 2012, due in part to his slow recovery from valley fever, which he contracted during spring training.  But he rebounded in the second half of the season and turned into one of the leading home run hitters after the break.  He finished the season with 32 bombs.  Finally, the Naturals used the last pick of the first round to re-acquire catcher Victor Martinez.  Martinez missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL suffered over the previous winter.  The Naturals were clearly reluctant to let him go after holding him on the roster for the entire season.  However, when the opportunity came to pick him up again, they jumped all over it.  Although his catching days may be over, he will likely produce stellar numbers at a position that is extremely difficult to fill.

For the most part, there were few surprises in the first round.  And I honestly can’t criticize any of the picks.  The top five teams went with the best players available, while the second half of the round featured last year’s contenders fill holes and/or proceed with their successful draft strategies.

The pace of the draft has been great so far too.  We’re already into the fifth round at the four day mark, so I’d say we are well ahead of schedule.  Keep up the good work!

Return of the Kings

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

Carlos Beltran

Kings

Projected Finish: First

2011 Finish: Fourth

AVG: B … HR: A … R: A … RBI: A … SB: B … W: D … ERA: B … WHIP: A … K: C … SV: C

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Carlos Beltran, Round 3 – rebounded nicely last season; great value in what was the 19th round

Kevin’s favorite draft pick: Carlos Beltran, Round 3 – improved hitter’s situation, in terms of home ballpark and supporting cast gives a boost to a guy already coming off a good bounce-back year.

Overview: Once the cream of the DTBL crop, the Kings are poised to return not only to DTBL relevance, but to prominence. Just like OOTP, the projection systems love them some Kings.

While pitching carried the Kings in 2011, the projection systems rate the Kings as the best offense in the league, with top scores in the HR, RBI and R categories. The Kings focused on offense most of the first half of the draft with power-hitting Michael Morse, Coors Field native Michael Cuddyer and Beltran, who has found some protection in the order with St. Louis.

Jackalope remain, Darkhorses return to elite status

Monday, April 30th, 2012

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Jackalope

Projected Finish: Third

2011 Finish: First

AVG: C … HR: A … R: C … RBI: B … SB: B … W: A … ERA: F … WHIP: F … K: B … SV: A

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Sean Marshall, Round 12 – Mr. Irrelevant could be a gem with the injury to Ryan Madson

Jay’s favorite draft picks: Mike Moustakas, Round 3 / Paul Goldschmidt, Round 4 – A pair to tidy up the corners as well as provide some pop while Ryan Howard nurses his Achilles.

Overview: The Jackalope broke through last year from being a team with a great SP staff to simply a great team. The addition of Mike Stanton provided a much-needed power boost to move the Jackalope to the fourth-best offense and top overall team in the league in 2011.

The 2012 Jackalope are ready to pick up where the 2011 squad left off. Howie Kendrick (Round 1) and Chris Young (Round 2) were among the best veteran DTBL players in the draft pool. By drafting every RP with ties to the Reds, the Jackalope ensured they will get any save opportunity to emerge from the Queen City – unless the Red lose, of course.

Darkhorses

Projected Finish: Second

2011 Finish: Seventh

AVG: A … HR: D … R: B … RBI: C … SB: A … W: B … ERA: A … WHIP: C … K: C … SV: A

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Zack Cozart, Round 10 – seemed like a lot of publications were down on him following surgery on his non-throwing arm

Dave’s favorite draft pick: Matt Moore, Round 1 – An expected ace who could help drive the Darkhorses’ SP staff back to prominence; Moore and Strasburg stood a tier above the rest of the SP pool

Overview: After four consecutive DTBL titles (including one tie), the Darkhorses finally took a step back in 2011.

Other than in the first round, the 2012 draft saw the Darkhorses follow their regular blueprint of drafting more established players rather than splurging on DTBL rookies. Among the rookies drafted by the D’horses, Jordan Walden entered the year looking like one of the top up-and-coming firemen in the league.

(note: Injuries have taken a serious toll on the Darkhorses already this year, with the losses of Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Carpenter and Brian Wilson)

Bootleggers, Wonderboy and other mythological figures are stuck in the middle

Thursday, April 26th, 2012

Jesus Montero

The first month of the season is coming close to being in the books – yet I still haven’t finished all these team “previews.” It seems pretty ridiculous to write team blurbs at this point, so I’ll post the remaining draft grades along with favorite picks

Moonshiners

Projected Finish: Seventh

2011 Finish: Third

AVG: C .. HR: A … R: A … RBI: A … SB: D … W: F … ERA: F … WHIP: F … K: D … SV: C

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Emilio Bonifacio, Round 5 – Had a great 2011, qualifies at SS and his name is fun to say!

Mike’s favorite draft pick: David Freese, Round 6 – World Series MVP has had trouble staying healthy, but he was one of the more solid hitters at a thin 3B

Naturals

Projected Finish: Sixth

2011 Finish: Second

AVG: A … HR: C … R: C … RBI: C  … SB: C … W: F … ERA: C … WHIP: D … K: C … SV: C

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Nick Markakis, Round 4 – I refuse to believe that his power will not break through … some day

Nick’s favorite draft pick: Jesus Montero, Round 1 – expected to put up 1B-type numbers from the C position

Demigods

Projected Finish: Fourth

2011 Finish: Fifth

AVG: A … HR: B … R: B … RBI: B … SB: C … W: D … ERA: A … WHIP: A … K: F … SV: C

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Bud Norris, Round 12 – wildcard flier, could collect a lot of Ks

Dom’s favorite draft pick: Freddie Freeman, Round 1 – Seemed somewhat similar to Eric Hosmer, but wasn’t getting near as much hype

Mavs, Cougars and Gators projected to finish in DTBL cellar

Saturday, April 21st, 2012

The projections systems have the bottom of the DTBL standings in 2012 looking pretty much the same as in 2011. The Mavericks, Cougars and Gators are projected to place eighth, ninth and tenth, respectively

Cougars   – Projected Finish: Ninth                           2011 Finish: Tied-Ninth

AVG: D

HR: D

R: F

RBI: F

SB: F

W: A

ERA: C

WHIP: C

K: A

SV: F

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Brett Lawrie, Round 1 – the top player on my draft board

Kelly’s favorite draft pick: Brett Lawrie, Round 1 – expected to go 20/20 already this season

Overview: After tying for last place in 2011 and collecting just 12 batting points, the Cougars started 2012 by drafting a player in Lawrie who could help in all five offensive categories. The 2011 Cougars’ offense took quite a hit from the disappointing season by Adam Dunn, for whom the Cougars gave up a first-round pick to acquire, and Grady Sizemore finally wore out his welcome six seasons after being the no. 1 overall pick

However, pitching was an even bigger problem area last year, so the Cougars took two SPs and an RP in the next three rounds to go with their core of Madison Bumgarner and Daniel Hudson. The selection of Gio Gonzalez came a round after I expected the Cougars to add a pitcher from D.C. Perhaps the move to the NL and yet another change of scenery will help Gio lower his walk rate. If not, maybe White Sox GM Kenny Williams can trade for him just to trade him away for the third time.

Gators   – Projected Finish: Tenth                             2011 Finish: Tied-Ninth

AVG: F

HR: D

R: F

RBI: F

SB: F

W: F

ERA: B

WHIP: A

K: F

SV: F

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Derek Holland, Round 9 – free fell in the draft. Talented lefty in good position to pile up wins

Greg’s favorite draft pick: N/A

Overview: A year after posting the lowest batting point total in the history of the DTBL as a 10-team league, the Gators spent their first six draft picks attempting to bolster their hitting. The Gators traded the no. 2 and no. 12 picks in the draft to the Mavericks for power hitting Nelson Cruz and Mark Reynolds. Hitting was such a priority for the Gators coming into this season that they added just two pitchers – Greg Holland and Derek Holland – in the entire draft.

The Gators could benefit greatly if Kendrys Morales returns to being the hitter he was three seasons ago when he hit 11 home runs in 193 at-bats for the Gators before beginning a run of injuries upon reaching home plate in that 193rd at bat.

Mavericks   – Projected Finish: Eighth                     2011 Finish: Eighth

AVG: C

HR: F

R: B

RBI: D

SB: A

W: C

ERA: F

WHIP: D

K: B

SV: F

Marc’s favorite draft pick: Adam Dunn, Round 6 – I keep telling myself that 2011 had to be a fluke

Overview: Back-to-back eighth-place finishes prompted the Mavericks to accept a full rebuilding plan that involved trading two of their oldest players in Nelson Cruz and Mark Reynolds for draft picks that became highly touted SP Stephen Strasburg and OF Mike Trout. Drafting Trout 12th overall when it already was pretty much a sure thing he was starting the season in the minors was a clear sign that the Mavs were all in on going young.

The Mavs have six players on their roster who were taken in the first round over the past three drafts. If players such as Matt Wieters (10 Dft #1) and Jayson Heyward (11 Dft #1) can become the players they looked to be heading into their DTBL rookie seasons, the stale Mavs offense of 2011 could see solid improvement.

Lawrie Leads the Way

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Cougars third baseman Brett Lawrie

For the second consecutive year, the DTBL Draft kicked off with a first round featuring nine straight selections of DTBL rookies with a veteran finishing up the round in the tenth slot.  In fact, if you go back one more year, DTBL rookies have occupied the first eight picks of the draft for three straight seasons.  The Cougars got things started by selecting a Canadian, third baseman Brett Lawrie.  This was one of many newsworthy items from the first half of the draft.  Almost one week after the 20th annual DTBL Draft began, we have six rounds in the books.

Although the Cougars have had a rough go of it in recent years, this was the first time they had the first pick in the draft since 2006 when they selected Grady Sizemore.  The Cougars obtained the first pick by winning a coin flip, which broke the tie between them and the Gators.  Lawrie was certainly projected to be one of the first players taken in this draft, but I think most had assumed the Cougars would take Stephen Strasburg instead.  The Cougars decision to go with Lawrie is completely justifiable and understandable though.  Lawrie broke onto the scene last summer and hit .293 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in just 150 MLB at bats.  He will fit nicely into the Cougars infield, which was quite thin heading into this draft.  While Strasburg could have become their ace for many years to come, the risk was ultimately too high for a team which already has another star pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery this season (Adam Wainwright).  Lawrie was the much safer choice.

Without having talked to Marc about this, I suspect his plan in acquiring the second pick in the draft was to add Lawrie and Eric Hosmer to the Mavericks stable of young hitters.  But when Strasburg became available, the plan changed.  The Mavericks acquired the second pick in the draft from the Gators (along with the 12th overall pick) for Nelson Cruz and Mark Reynolds.  The Mavericks used that pick to grab the phenom Strasburg, whose DTBL debut was pushed back a year after missing almost all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Still, he was quite impressive in his September return, compiling a 1.50 ERA, 0.708 WHIP and 24 strike outs in 24 innings pitched.  He joins a Mavericks pitching staff that already features Clayton Kershaw.  That could be a scary duo for years to come.  The Mavericks also possessed their own pick at #3 and used it to select first baseman Eric Hosmer.  This was the second straight year that the Mavericks had the second and third picks of the draft.  Strasburg and Hosmer were the sixth and seventh players selected in the first round by the Mavs in the past three years.  All seven of these players have been very young with tremendous upside, some of which has yet to materialize.  More on the Mavericks youth movement in a bit.

The Darkhorses aren’t used to picking so early in the draft, but have to be pleased with what it allowed them to do.  With the fourth pick, the Darkhorses selected young starting pitcher Matt Moore.  Some have called Moore the left-handed Strasburg.  In fact, many believe the potential for those two pitchers is nearly identical.  Moore didn’t make his MLB debut until last September, but he made such an immediate impact that he wound up starting a game for the Rays in the postseason.  So he has just as many career starts in the postseason as MLB regular season (one each).  The Choppers used the fifth pick on yet another fireballing youngster.  They selected Michael Pineda, who was the key piece of the biggest offseason MLB trade.  The Yankees acquired Pineda from Seattle.  Fantasy experts are torn on if this makes Pineda more or less valuable as a fantasy pitcher.  On one hand, he is moving from a team that couldn’t score runs to one of the best offensive teams in baseball.  But on the other hand, he is leaving pitching friendly Safeco Field to play half his games in the launching pad of Yankee Stadium.  Regardless, he is expected to be a star for years to come and gives the Choppers rotation a huge boost.

The next two picks were first basemen.  The Demigods selected Freddie Freeman with the sixth pick and the Kings followed by taking Michael  Morse.  Freeman is quite a bit younger than Morse, who didn’t have his breakout until his late 20s.  Freeman will also be a first baseman for years to come, while Morse may find himself in the outfield for the Kings next year.  Last year, it was catchers the flew off the board with three going in the first seven picks.  This year it was first basemen.  Surprisingly, there was not a first baseman selected until the fifth round a year ago, so it was obviously a position of need for several teams this time around.

Perhaps the steal of the first round belonged to the Moonshiners who were able to grab the clear cut number one outfielder available with the eighth pick in the draft.  The Moonshiners selected the five-tool Desmond Jennings, a guy they probably would have considered taking if they had the second or third pick in the draft.  This is two straight years that things have worked out extremely well for the Moonshiners in the first round.  Last year, they wound up trading their pick for Jeff Weaver, who immediately retooled their rotation.  Following the Jennings pick, the Naturals took another budding superstar in catcher Jesus Montero.  Montero was the key piece going to opposite direction in the Pineda deal.  Like Pineda, there is some concern that the ballpark switch could have a negative impact on Montero’s fantasy value.  However, he played so few games at Yankee Stadium that it remains to be seen what his true potential will be.  Finally, as usual, the defending champions used their first round pick to plug a hole rather than speculating on the future.  The Jackalope selected second baseman Howie Kendrick with the last pick of the first round.

A few more interesting facts about the first round.  As mentioned, two of the players were traded for each other this offseason (Pineda and Montero).  There were two pairs of MLB teammates selected (Strasburg/Morse and Moore/Jennings).  And there were a combined six first basemen and starting pitchers selected, with only one player at those positions going in the first round a year ago.

When looking at the players taken in the first round, it struck me that almost all of those guys were extremely highly touted prospects just a couple years ago and not too many of them came out of nowhere.  To see if my hunch was correct, I looked at the 2010 Baseball American top prospects list, and was amused by what I found.  BA’s top 10 from two years ago featured eight players who have been selected in the first round of the DTBL Draft in 2011 or 2012.  Strasburg was #2, Montero #4 and Jennings #6.  Last year’s first rounders included Jason Heyward (#1), Mike Stanton (#3), Buster Posey (#7), Pedro Alvarez (#8) and Carlos Santana (#10).  The only players from this list who haven’t been picked in the first round are Brian Matusz and Neftali Feliz who were Mavericks draft picks in 2010.

Beyond the first round, there have been some other interesting developments as well.  The Mavericks have continued to go young with almost every pick.  Here are the ages of their first six picks:  23, 22, 20, 23, 23, 25 (Strasburg, Hosmer, Mike Trout, Dee Gordon, Addison Reed, Jemile Weeks).  All six of those players are DTBL rookies.  I’ll give credit to the Mavericks for sticking to a plan.  We’ll see if it pays off down the road.

The Demigods might be wondering if they made some mistakes with their cuts last December.  Six players they cut were selected in the first 31 picks of the draft:  Kendrick (#10), Gio Gonzalez (11), Matt Garza (15), Jason Motte (19), Carlos Beltran (27) and Grant Balfour (31).  This would seem to mean one of two things:  either the Demigods made some poor decisions with their cuts, or they had an incredibly deep team last season.  I’m inclined to lean towards the latter.  In looking at their keepers, there really aren’t any obvious players who should have been cut.  Also, they made those cuts before knowing Gonzalez and Beltran would move to more favorable locations and Balfour would become a closer candidate.

There are plenty of other items I could cover, but I’m going to wrap this up.  Hopefully, we’ll complete this draft around this time next week, giving us a little bit of time to prepare for the start of the season.  Thanks to everyone for keeping the draft moving at a good pace.  Enjoy this incredible weather most of the country is experiencing.  And bring on some March Madness!

First Round Shakeup

Saturday, March 26th, 2011

Demigods catcher Buster Posey

There were no major surprises in the first few picks of the DTBL Draft, but that didn’t mean there was a lack of drama.  Two blockbuster trades by the Jackalope shook up their team and perhaps the league as a whole.  The Demigods grabbed the young phenom catcher Buster Posey with the first pick in the draft, but the Jackalope stole the headlines.

The 2011 DTBL Draft began with the Demigods selecting Posey, who was probably the general consensus number one player available.  In his first MLB season, all he did was hit .305 with 18 home runs and 67 RBIs in just over 400 at bats, on his way to leading the San Francisco Giants to their first World Series title since 1954.  Posey’s fantasy value is especially high at a weak position like catcher.  He gives the Demigods almost indisputably the best catching duo in the league, paired with Joe Mauer.  Mauer was also a first round pick of the Demigods back in 2005.  Off the top of my head, the only other time I recall a catcher being selected with the first pick in the draft was Mike Piazza by the Metros way back in 1994.  The Demigods had a rough year in 2010, but Posey should be a major step towards turning things around.

The Mavericks had the next two picks, the second straight year in which they possessed a few early picks.  Their own pick was third overall and they acquired the second pick from the Cougars in a trade for Adam Dunn last summer.  With that pick from the Cougars, they selected another one of last year’s rookie sensations:  outfielder Jason Heyward.  And the youth movement continued with the next selection when they took another catcher, Carlos Santana.  The Mavericks clearly foresaw the two outstanding catchers that would be available when they dealt veteran Jorge Posada last year.  While the Demigods have the most impressive catching combination, the Mavericks pair of Santana and Wieters has a ton of potential as well.   Heyward will give their outfield a much needed boost.  This pair of picks should help the Mavericks recover from the hugely disappointing 2010.

The Choppers were the first team to draft a “veteran” when they selected outfielder Jose Bautista with the fourth pick.  Bautista will be a DTBL rookie this season, but has several years of MLB experience.  He had a breakout season in 2010, leading all of baseball with 54 home runs.  He drove in 124 and scored 109 runs.  Bautista’s home run total was 12 more than any DTBL player accumulated last season.  Whether or not he will be able to duplicate those numbers remains to be seen, but he was pretty much a no-brainer selection for the Choppers at this point.  None of these first four picks were very surprising.

With the big four gone, the Gators were left with a less obvious choice at number five.  They elected to take outfielder Angel Pagan.  Like Bautista, he sort of came out of nowhere to have a great 2010 season.  A platoon player most of his career, Pagan now has a firm grip on any everyday spot for the Mets and should reward the Gators with a good average, a lot of steals and even some surprising power.

The second half of the first round is where things got really interesting.  The Moonshiners held the sixth pick and there was only one highly sought after player left on the board.  However, the Moonshiners greatest need was starting pitching, and while this was a strong field for pitchers, none of them really stood out as first round material.  Fortunately for the Moonshiners, the Jackalope came calling because they were very interested in outfielder Mike Stanton.  So the Jackalope dealt one of their five superstar pitchers, Jared Weaver, along with a fifth round pick to the Moonshiners for the sixth overall selection.  The Jackalope then used that pick to grab the young, powerful outfielder Stanton.  This is one of those trades that will probably wind up helping one team more than the other, but made perfect sense for both.  Weaver is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game and actually led the DTBL in strike outs last season.  He probably would have been a top three pick in this draft.

Meanwhile, the Jackalope started their bold transformation by acquiring Stanton.  But that was just the beginning.  Minutes after trading Weaver, the Jackalope dealt another one of their starting pitchers.  In one of the biggest trades in recent history, the Jackalope dealt Zack Greinke and a fourth round pick to the Naturals for first baseman Ryan Howard and a sixth round pick.  If you are wondering how the Jackalope could survive trading two elite starting pitchers in the matter of minutes, keep in mind that they basically had five of the top ten pitchers in the entire league on their roster last year and easily led the league in total pitching points, blowing out the competition in ERA and WHIP.  Even without Weaver and Greinke, they still have three pitchers that are better than anybody on most teams:  Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.  There is no reason to think they still can’t dominate the pitching categories.  But now they actually have a legitimate offense around Albert Pujols.  Howard and Stanton should immediately turn the Jackalope from a below average offensive team to one of the league’s best.  Make no mistake about it, the Jackalope will be one of the teams to beat this season.

The Kings were totally thrown off by the Jackalope deals, particularly the one to acquire the Stanton pick.  They thought they were going to be in a good spot to grab Stanton after the Gators took Pagan.  The Kings had only identified five players as being solid first round picks, but with all of them off the board, they had to go a different route and fill a position of need instead.  They decided to take catcher Miguel Montero with the seventh pick.  They had no catchers on their roster and felt there was a major drop off in the available players after him.  Montero was the first non-DTBL rookie selected in this draft.  He was also the third catcher taken in the first round, which has to be unprecedented.  Next, with their regular pick, the Jackalope grabbed speedster outfielder Michael Bourn, further emphasizing their focus on offense.

The two defending champions completed the first round, but went different routes in doing so.  The Naturals picked another young potential superstar, third baseman Pedro Alvarez.  I didn’t mention it earlier, but the Jackalope weren’t the only team trading from a position of strength in that Greinke/Howard deal.  The Naturals could afford to lose Howard since they already possessed two of the game’s best first basemen in Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto.  The deal also paved the way to be able to grab a young slugger like Alvarez with the ninth pick.  Finally, the Darkhorses completed the first round by taking the guy who they had tagged as the best pitcher in the draft, Ted Lilly.  The veteran Lilly could have a great season pitching a full year in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium.

We almost went an entire first round without a pitcher being taken.  This points to a lack of standout pitchers in the draft pool, but does not speak to the overall talent level at the positions.  Plenty of pitchers started to fly off the board in the second round, including a run of four straight relief pitchers.  The Cougars used their first pick of the draft to take starting pitcher Daniel Hudson with the second pick of the second round.  There was also another trade in the second round.  The Mavericks dealt Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera to the Choppers for their second round pick.  The Mavericks used that pick to draft shortstop Starlin Castro, immediately after picking outfielder Nick Markakis with their own pick.  This gave the Mavericks four of the first 14 selections in this draft.

The implications of this draft could be felt for quite some time.  Although there were only a handful of elite players available in the first round, the top championship contenders still found a way to improve their teams.  It should be a fun season.

Draft Preview

Sunday, March 6th, 2011

The 19th annual DTBL Draft is set to begin this afternoon, so I figured I would take a few minutes to set the stage.

All eyes will be on the Mavericks, who possess two of the first three picks in the draft.  Last year, they made three first round selections.  So they seem to be well positioned to build a solid foundation with young talent.  But before the Mavericks have their pick of the litter, the Demigods will make the first overall pick.  Some years there is an obvious #1 player on the board, but I don’t think that is the case this year.  They could go a number of directions to fill a need.  The Choppers and Gators hold the fourth and fifth picks respectively, and figure to be in good spots to pick up quality players.

Overall, I think this is a deep draft.  As I previously mentioned, I had trouble making the final decisions on which players to include, especially when it came to pitchers.  This should make for a very interesting draft start to finish.  Having said that, I was only able to identify five players who I feel are sure thing first round picks.  This means that half of the players taken in the first round could be surprises and could cause some teams to pick the best player available at a position of need rather than going with the best player on the board.

Will this be another draft full of trades?  Already, a number of picks have been dealt in carry over trades from last season.  The first trade of the year was recently completed, but it did not include draft picks.  The Mavericks and Naturals made another deal swapping Orioles players.  The Mavericks acquired outfielder Adam Jones from the Naturals for starting pitcher Brian Matusz.  This trade was a product of a numbers game.  The Mavericks had six starting pitcher keepers, so at least one of them was expendable.  Meanwhile, the Naturals already had a full outfield.  This deal gives both teams a little more flexibility on where they can go with their early draft picks.

Now let’s get this thing started.  Happy drafting!