Cougars third baseman Brett Lawrie
For the second consecutive year, the DTBL Draft kicked off with a first round featuring nine straight selections of DTBL rookies with a veteran finishing up the round in the tenth slot. In fact, if you go back one more year, DTBL rookies have occupied the first eight picks of the draft for three straight seasons. The Cougars got things started by selecting a Canadian, third baseman Brett Lawrie. This was one of many newsworthy items from the first half of the draft. Almost one week after the 20th annual DTBL Draft began, we have six rounds in the books.
Although the Cougars have had a rough go of it in recent years, this was the first time they had the first pick in the draft since 2006 when they selected Grady Sizemore. The Cougars obtained the first pick by winning a coin flip, which broke the tie between them and the Gators. Lawrie was certainly projected to be one of the first players taken in this draft, but I think most had assumed the Cougars would take Stephen Strasburg instead. The Cougars decision to go with Lawrie is completely justifiable and understandable though. Lawrie broke onto the scene last summer and hit .293 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in just 150 MLB at bats. He will fit nicely into the Cougars infield, which was quite thin heading into this draft. While Strasburg could have become their ace for many years to come, the risk was ultimately too high for a team which already has another star pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery this season (Adam Wainwright). Lawrie was the much safer choice.
Without having talked to Marc about this, I suspect his plan in acquiring the second pick in the draft was to add Lawrie and Eric Hosmer to the Mavericks stable of young hitters. But when Strasburg became available, the plan changed. The Mavericks acquired the second pick in the draft from the Gators (along with the 12th overall pick) for Nelson Cruz and Mark Reynolds. The Mavericks used that pick to grab the phenom Strasburg, whose DTBL debut was pushed back a year after missing almost all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Still, he was quite impressive in his September return, compiling a 1.50 ERA, 0.708 WHIP and 24 strike outs in 24 innings pitched. He joins a Mavericks pitching staff that already features Clayton Kershaw. That could be a scary duo for years to come. The Mavericks also possessed their own pick at #3 and used it to select first baseman Eric Hosmer. This was the second straight year that the Mavericks had the second and third picks of the draft. Strasburg and Hosmer were the sixth and seventh players selected in the first round by the Mavs in the past three years. All seven of these players have been very young with tremendous upside, some of which has yet to materialize. More on the Mavericks youth movement in a bit.
The Darkhorses aren’t used to picking so early in the draft, but have to be pleased with what it allowed them to do. With the fourth pick, the Darkhorses selected young starting pitcher Matt Moore. Some have called Moore the left-handed Strasburg. In fact, many believe the potential for those two pitchers is nearly identical. Moore didn’t make his MLB debut until last September, but he made such an immediate impact that he wound up starting a game for the Rays in the postseason. So he has just as many career starts in the postseason as MLB regular season (one each). The Choppers used the fifth pick on yet another fireballing youngster. They selected Michael Pineda, who was the key piece of the biggest offseason MLB trade. The Yankees acquired Pineda from Seattle. Fantasy experts are torn on if this makes Pineda more or less valuable as a fantasy pitcher. On one hand, he is moving from a team that couldn’t score runs to one of the best offensive teams in baseball. But on the other hand, he is leaving pitching friendly Safeco Field to play half his games in the launching pad of Yankee Stadium. Regardless, he is expected to be a star for years to come and gives the Choppers rotation a huge boost.
The next two picks were first basemen. The Demigods selected Freddie Freeman with the sixth pick and the Kings followed by taking Michael Morse. Freeman is quite a bit younger than Morse, who didn’t have his breakout until his late 20s. Freeman will also be a first baseman for years to come, while Morse may find himself in the outfield for the Kings next year. Last year, it was catchers the flew off the board with three going in the first seven picks. This year it was first basemen. Surprisingly, there was not a first baseman selected until the fifth round a year ago, so it was obviously a position of need for several teams this time around.
Perhaps the steal of the first round belonged to the Moonshiners who were able to grab the clear cut number one outfielder available with the eighth pick in the draft. The Moonshiners selected the five-tool Desmond Jennings, a guy they probably would have considered taking if they had the second or third pick in the draft. This is two straight years that things have worked out extremely well for the Moonshiners in the first round. Last year, they wound up trading their pick for Jeff Weaver, who immediately retooled their rotation. Following the Jennings pick, the Naturals took another budding superstar in catcher Jesus Montero. Montero was the key piece going to opposite direction in the Pineda deal. Like Pineda, there is some concern that the ballpark switch could have a negative impact on Montero’s fantasy value. However, he played so few games at Yankee Stadium that it remains to be seen what his true potential will be. Finally, as usual, the defending champions used their first round pick to plug a hole rather than speculating on the future. The Jackalope selected second baseman Howie Kendrick with the last pick of the first round.
A few more interesting facts about the first round. As mentioned, two of the players were traded for each other this offseason (Pineda and Montero). There were two pairs of MLB teammates selected (Strasburg/Morse and Moore/Jennings). And there were a combined six first basemen and starting pitchers selected, with only one player at those positions going in the first round a year ago.
When looking at the players taken in the first round, it struck me that almost all of those guys were extremely highly touted prospects just a couple years ago and not too many of them came out of nowhere. To see if my hunch was correct, I looked at the 2010 Baseball American top prospects list, and was amused by what I found. BA’s top 10 from two years ago featured eight players who have been selected in the first round of the DTBL Draft in 2011 or 2012. Strasburg was #2, Montero #4 and Jennings #6. Last year’s first rounders included Jason Heyward (#1), Mike Stanton (#3), Buster Posey (#7), Pedro Alvarez (#8) and Carlos Santana (#10). The only players from this list who haven’t been picked in the first round are Brian Matusz and Neftali Feliz who were Mavericks draft picks in 2010.
Beyond the first round, there have been some other interesting developments as well. The Mavericks have continued to go young with almost every pick. Here are the ages of their first six picks: 23, 22, 20, 23, 23, 25 (Strasburg, Hosmer, Mike Trout, Dee Gordon, Addison Reed, Jemile Weeks). All six of those players are DTBL rookies. I’ll give credit to the Mavericks for sticking to a plan. We’ll see if it pays off down the road.
The Demigods might be wondering if they made some mistakes with their cuts last December. Six players they cut were selected in the first 31 picks of the draft: Kendrick (#10), Gio Gonzalez (11), Matt Garza (15), Jason Motte (19), Carlos Beltran (27) and Grant Balfour (31). This would seem to mean one of two things: either the Demigods made some poor decisions with their cuts, or they had an incredibly deep team last season. I’m inclined to lean towards the latter. In looking at their keepers, there really aren’t any obvious players who should have been cut. Also, they made those cuts before knowing Gonzalez and Beltran would move to more favorable locations and Balfour would become a closer candidate.
There are plenty of other items I could cover, but I’m going to wrap this up. Hopefully, we’ll complete this draft around this time next week, giving us a little bit of time to prepare for the start of the season. Thanks to everyone for keeping the draft moving at a good pace. Enjoy this incredible weather most of the country is experiencing. And bring on some March Madness!
You just had to mention Pedro Alvarez, didn’t you?