Archive for the ‘Mavericks’ Category

DTBL Sim: Mavericks Win Title

Sunday, July 19th, 2020

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The Mavericks were clearly the best team in the DTBL 2020 Sim league, nearly from the start of the season to the finish.  Yes, they trailed the Demigods by a couple games at the mid-season mark, but the underlying numbers pointed to them being the better team.  That certainly manifested itself in the second half when the Mavericks cruised out in front and won the regular season title by seven games.  But in a couple best-of-seven series against solid teams, anything can happen.  Yet the Mavericks continued to exert their strength throughout the Postseason.  They topped the Demigods in six games in the Semi-Finals and then dominated the Choppers in the World Series, finishing them off in five games.  Marc’s Mavericks are the DTBL 2020 Sim Champions.

While it would have been tough to predict what to expect in such a sim league, the Mavericks winning it all is not a huge surprise.  What was surprising was the overall composition of the playoff field.  The Choppers and Demigods finished in ninth and tenth places in the DTBL in 2019.  They finished second and fourth in this league.  The Choppers numbers indicate that they may be better constructed for a real baseball setup than a fantasy league because they led the league in several areas that play no role in fantasy baseball.  They were #1 in all defensive metrics and in base running efficiency.  That said, they were a strong offensive team as well, leading the league in runs.  The Demigods were probably the league’s most overachieving team.  They rode that hot start to a playoff spot despite being below average in both run scored and runs allowed.  The fourth playoff qualifier, the Kings, were not a surprise postseason participant, but never really displayed any sort of dominance in this league.  They were simply an above average team in almost all aspects.

Then there were the Mavericks, who were rode a deep lineup and easily the league’s best pitching staff to the regular season and World Series championships.  They finished second in Batting WAR and first in Pitching WAR, by a wide margin.  Their 3.60 team ERA was basically 7/10 of a run better than the next best team.  On the individual player front, the leaderboards were loaded with Mavericks.  Juan Soto and Mike Trout finished second and third in both WAR (7.1/6.4) and OPS (.930/.897).  Jack Flaherty led the league in ERA (2.36), strikeouts (257) and Pitching WAR (5.9).  Stephen Strasburg was top three in those categories as well and won more games than any other pitcher (19).  No team could match the Mavericks lineup and rotation depth.  Aaron Judge and Javy Baez are pretty scary bottom third of the order hitters.  And I don’t think Clayton Kershaw would have been all the way down in the fourth spot of any other team’s rotation.

The Postseason played out to form with the favored teams winning all three series.  The Demigods did give the Mavericks a bit of a scare, winning Game 1 and forcing the series back to Maui where the Mavericks eventually finished it in an exciting Game 6 that went extra innings before Mike Trout hit a walk-off three run homer to send the Mavericks to the World Series.  The Kings/Choppers series also lasted six games and featured a couple wild ones.  The Choppers stole Game 2 by scoring six runs in the bottom of the 9th to shock the Kings 13-12.  Then they won a critical Game 4 by a score of 8-5 in 10 innings to tie up the series.  The Choppers would go on to win the next two to close out the series.  Bullpens struggled for both teams in this series, especially for the Kings.

The World Series was pretty one sided on the whole, but did end with a couple exciting games.  The Mavericks cruised to victories in the first three games, each of which featured Mavericks starting pitchers stifling the Choppers offense.  Jack Flaherty, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Soroka were nearly untouchable.  The Choppers showed some life in Game 4, putting up 11 runs which was eight more than they had scored in the previous three games combined.  But it was back to pitching domination in Game 5, this time by both teams with Flaherty and Chris Sale throwing nearly identical seven inning gems.  The game was scoreless until the ninth inning when Eloy Jimenez hit a three run homer.  The Choppers rallied in the bottom half, but only pushed across one run, so the Mavericks won the decisive game 3-1.  Jimenez’s huge Game 5 homer was his fourth of the series.  He was named World Series MVP.

Not surprisingly, the Mavericks were well represented among the full season award winners as well.  Jack Flaherty was the unanimous choice for the Cy Young award, with teammate Stephen Strasburg finishing second.  Kings outfielder Mookie Betts took the Most Valuable Player honor with the Mavericks trio of Juan Soto, Mike Trout and Flaherty all finishing in the top five as well.  Moonshiners LHP Brendan McKay might have been the most surprising star of the season.  He took home the Rookie of the Year award for his efforts.

I hope you enjoyed following along with this sim the past four months.  It was no substitute for the real thing, but it was nice to have some baseball to digest during these difficult times.  Fortunately, it appears we will have some real fantasy baseball (how about that oxymoron?) to follow starting later this week.  With that, I will be kicking off my 2020 DTBL season preview articles tomorrow.

 

A Family Affair

Tuesday, March 10th, 2020

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Trivia time!  What do Fernando Tatis, Vladimir Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Craig Biggio all have in common?  If you guessed that they all hit at least .290 with 15+ home runs for their respective DTBL teams in 1999, you are correct!  Oh, and they also all have sons who were selected in the first 15 picks of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  This league has been around long enough that we had already seen a few sons of former DTBL players become second generation league members.  But in the previous instances, the fathers only had a cup of coffee in this league at the tail end of their careers.  This four-some is different.  All four compiled multiple strong seasons in the league and all but Tatis were among the league’s best players in its first 10-15 years.

Interestingly, it is the least accomplished father of those four whose son enters the league with the highest acclaim.  The Demigods selected the do-it-all shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. with the first pick in the draft.  Tatis hit .317 with 22 homers and 16 stolen bases in a MLB rookie campaign that was cut short by injury.  Provided he has a full year of solid health in 2020, it isn’t unreasonable to think he could be the second straight #1 draft pick to post a 30/30 season in his DTBL rookie year.  The Demigods will turn to Tatis to help put their miserable 2019 behind them.  Keep in mind that prior to last year, this is a team that finished in the top half of the standings in five straight seasons.  Tatis has the talent to lift them back up to their recent historic norms.

While Tatis was spectacular last year, he probably wouldn’t have won the NL Rookie of the Year award even if he had stayed healthy.  Not with Pete Alonso breaking the MLB all-time rookie record for home runs.  Alonso slugged 53 homers, which would have led the DTBL by four had he been in the league a year ago.  His 120 RBIs would have been fourth best in the league.  He was worthy of the second overall pick in the draft on his own merit, but he also happens to be an ideal fit for the Choppers who finished next to last in home runs and RBIs and dead last in total batting points a year ago.  This is the third straight year the Choppers have used their first pick on an infielder.  Alonso figures to have the biggest impact of them all.

The Komodos made it consecutive 2019 MLB Rookie of the Year winners when they selected Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez with the third pick.  Alvarez crashed the AL rookie party that was supposed to be all about a couple guys that will be covered below.  He hit .317 with 27 home runs and 78 RBIs despite not making his debut until June.  Had he been in the majors from the jump like Alonso, perhaps he too could have challenged the rookie home run record.  Alvarez is currently sidelined with a knee issue.  But assuming that doesn’t keep him out of action too long, he figures to be one of the league’s top sluggers.  He will join Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Nelson Cruz and Jose Ramirez to form what could be a sneaky great Komodos offense.

Sneaky great is also an appropriate way of describing Keston Hiura’s young MLB career.  The Jackalope tabbed the Brewers second baseman with the fourth pick.  In 84 games, Hiura managed to hit .303 with 19 homers and nine stolen bases.  Extrapolate those numbers out to a full season and you could have the makings of a stud at a very weak offensive position.  The Jackalope have had one of the league’s best infields for a while now, but Hiura injects it with a needed shot of youth.  The spring is not off to a great start from a health perspective for the Jackalope.  Hiura could help cure much of what ails them, however.

Only one player selected in the first round won’t be making his DTBL debut this season.  Lucas Giolito was signed as a free agent by the Mavericks late in the 2017 season and was subsequently released prior to 2018, when the Mavericks picked him up again in the seventh round of the draft.  But he was released again by the Mavericks that May and had such a poor season that he got dropped from the league last year.  2019 Giolito was basically a brand new pitcher, making the All-Star team and compiling a Cy Young campaign resume.  The pitcher the Cougars drafted with the fifth pick this year really doesn’t resemble the one who pitched for the Mavericks.  In ’19, Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, won 14 games and struck out an impressive 228 batters in 177 innings.  The Cougars pitching staff prevented them from being serious contenders a year ago.  Giolito could help change that.

A year ago, it seemed like a near certainty that I would be writing about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the first player taken in the 2020 draft.  Not that some of these other guys weren’t highly touted prospects, but Guerrero was at a different level.  His MLB debut became a must-see event, unlike any player I can recall since Bryce Harper.  That incredible, and probably unfair, level of hype made his 2019 season seem a little underwhelming.  He hit .272 with “only” 15 homers.  Here’s another number that is equally relevant though:  21.  That’s the age Guerrero will turn next week.  What Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto have done in their teens/very early 20s just isn’t normal.  Struggling to get your footing in the big leagues like Guerrero did *is* normal.  I have it on good authority that the Moonshiners were shocked and thrilled to grab him with the sixth pick in this draft.  If Vladito does in fact reach his potential, we’ll all look back on this pick and wonder how it came to be.

The Mavericks were also probably quite surprised about the availability of their first round pick.  They selected slugging outfielder Eloy Jimenez with the seventh pick.  Much of what I wrote about Guerrero applies to Jimenez as well, although he is a little older and did wind up posting pretty solid numbers thanks to a strong finish to the 2019 season.  31 home runs and 79 RBIs are impressive totals for a rookie and could be viewed as the floor of what to expect from here on out.  He seems a good bet to improve on the .267 average too.  Assuming good health, the Mavericks outfield is absolutely ridiculous.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Nick Castellanos and now Jimenez.  The rest of the roster ain’t too shabby either.

The Beanballers first official selection as a member of the DTBL was another flashy young shortstop who is the son of a former DTBL player, Bo Bichette.  Bichette has the fewest big league games under his belt of this first round group, but he made his short stint in the big leagues count.  In just 46 games, he hit .311 with 11 homers.  While not directly fantasy relevant, he also had 18 doubles.  So the extra base power appears to be legit.  With a new league member, it is hard to predict what the draft strategy might be.  In this case, it looks like the Beanballers went with the best young talent available, because shortstop was not a position of need with Trea Turner and Amed Rosario already on the roster.  You can’t go wrong with a middle infielder with huge upside though.  Bichette joins a roster with plenty of talent, so it will be interesting to see how the Beanballers do on their maiden voyage.

Seven of the first eight selections were hitters.  We finally saw a rookie pitcher go off the board when the Darkhorses selected Chris Paddack at #9.  While still at the very beginning of his career, Paddack already has an advanced repertoire, which he used to compile some gaudy numbers in 2019.  His sub 1.00 WHIP and 3.33 ERA were pretty incredible for a first season in the majors.  This selection made all the sense in the world for the Darkhorses, who have fallen a little short of the champion Kings the past two seasons because they didn’t have quite enough pitching.  Paddack will join Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin and Jose Berrios in a rotation that seems quite capable of closing that gap and claiming their first DTBL title in 10 years.

The Kings probably would have drafted any of the nine players selected ahead of them if they had fallen to the last slot in the first round.  Instead, they settled for a pitcher with very intriguing stuff, but also one who missed half of the 2019 campaign with a PED suspension.  Athletics hurler Frankie Montas was the final pick of the first round of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  Before the suspension, Montas was electric.  He struck out more than a batter per inning with a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  While starting pitching has been the Kings strength in their recent championship runs, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t getting any younger.  So they will turn to Montas as a potential ace in waiting.  In the meantime, he will join those guys in a rather formidable rotation.

A quick note on one second round selection referenced up top:  the Cougars selected second baseman Cavan Biggio with the 15th overall pick.  This connection is intriguing since Cavan’s father Craig was also a second baseman on the first two Cougars championship squads and was an all-time great for both the Cougars and Choppers.

After a bit of a slow start, we’ve hit our stride the past few days and are now on a great pace.  We should have plenty of time between the conclusion of the draft and Opening Day.  Keep up the good work!

DTBL Best of the Decade

Tuesday, December 31st, 2019

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The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin’s Kings

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren’t the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay’s Jackalope

The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn’t necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we’ve ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let’s just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn’t really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

 

Now let’s move onto the All-Decade players.  I’ve selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I’ve bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn’t want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn’t want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

 

First Team All-Decade

C – Victor Martinez (Naturals ’10-’15, Mavericks ’16, Kings ’17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

C – Buster Posey (Demigods ’11-’19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope ’12-’19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

2B – Jose Altuve (Demigods ’12-’19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

3B – Nolan Arenado (Naturals ’14-’19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

SS – Francisco Lindor (Demigods ’16-’19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

1B/3B – Miguel Cabrera (Naturals ’10-’18, Mavericks ’19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

2B/SS – Robinson Cano (Kings ’10-’19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

OF – Mike Trout (Mavericks ’12-’19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

OF – Nelson Cruz (Mavericks ’10-’11, Gators ’12-’17, Komodos ’18-’19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

OF – Mookie Betts (Kings ’15-’19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

OF – Andrew McCutchen (Naturals ’10-’17, Choppers ’18-’19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

OF – Ryan Braun (Jackalope ’10-’19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11, Mavericks ’12-’14, Darkhorses ’15-’19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

SP – Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks ’10-’19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

SP – Max Scherzer (Jackalope ’10, Kings ’10-’19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

SP – Justin Verlander (Kings ’10-’19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

SP – Zack Greinke (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11-’14, Moonshiners ’15-’19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

SP – Chris Sale (Naturals ’11, Choppers ’12-’19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

RP – Craig Kimbrel (Choppers ’11-’19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

RP – Kenley Jansen (Mavericks ’11-’19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

RP – Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks ’11, ’15-’17, Jackalope ’12-’14, Komodos ’18-’19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

RP – Jonathan Papelbon (Kings ’10-’15, Jackalope ’15-’16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

 

Second Team All-Decade

C – Yadier Molina (Choppers ’10-’16, Cougars ’17-’19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

C – J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses ’16-’19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

1B – Joey Votto (Naturals ’10-’19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

2B – Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners ’10-’16, Jackalope ’17-’18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

3B – Adrian Beltre (Choppers ’10-’18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

SS – Trea Turner (Naturals ’16-’19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

1B/3B – Freddie Freeman (Demigods ’12-’19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

2B/SS – Brian Dozier (Moonshiners ’14-’19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

OF – Charlie Blackmon (Cougars ’15-’19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

OF – Bryce Harper (Darkhorses ’13-’19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

OF – Christian Yelich (Darkhorses ’14-’19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope ’11-’19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (Kings ’10-’17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

DH – Albert Pujols (Jackalope ’10-’14, Mavericks ’15, ’18, Choppers ’16-’17, Darkhorses ’18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

SP – David Price (Naturals ’10-’18, Komodos ’19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

SP – Madison Bumgarner (Cougars ’11-’19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

SP – Felix Hernandez (Jackalope ’10-’14, ’18, Moonshiners ’15-’17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

SP – Jon Lester (Naturals ’10-’12, Choppers ’13-’19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

SP – Corey Kluber (Demigods ’14-’19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

RP – Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners ’10-’11, Mavericks ’12, Naturals ’14, Kings ’15-’17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

RP – Greg Holland (Gators ’12-’13, Naturals ’13-’17, Komodos ’18, Mavericks ’19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

RP – David Robertson (Cougars ’12-’19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

RP – Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners ’16-’19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

 

I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

Batters

Pitchers

Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here’s to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

Moose, Mo and More

Wednesday, August 7th, 2019

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A few times in recent years, I have taken the opportunity to write about the DTBL careers of a set of players recently inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.  Well, I think I might as well go ahead and make it an annual tradition for my July recap article.  Our league has reached a level of longevity such that virtually every player inducted into the Hall had a significant impact on this league as well.

On July 21, six players were honored in Cooperstown, New York.  All six are DTBL alums and at least three would be sure fire Hall-of-Famers in this league as well, if such a thing existed.  The six honorees were:  Harold Baines, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith.  Here is a review of their DTBL careers, going in alphabetical order.

Harold Baines was one of the more controversial selections in recent years, chosen by the Veterans Committee after never receiving much support during his time on the Baseball Writers Association ballot.  Personally, I find arguments over players who *are* selected to be tiresome.  More time should be spent arguing about players who are left out rather than trying to diminish those selected.  Baines was an excellent player, and a personal favorite of mine.  That said, he was probably the least accomplished DTBL player of this group with his prime years coming well before this league started.  He was drafted by the Gators in the inaugural draft of 1993 and spent five seasons with them as their primary designated hitter and was a member of their 1995 championship team.  He then spent his final two seasons as a part time player on a couple expansion teams:  the Angels in 1998 and the Moonshiners inaugural season of 1999.  Baines hit at least .290 in every season except his last one.  All told, he compiled an impressive .303 career batting average with 81 home runs.

The late Roy Halladay was a major part of the modern pitching evolution of the late 2000s and early 2010s when power pitchers started to rule the day.  He spent his entire DTBL career with the Jackalope and litters their career leaderboard.  His run from 2008 to 2011 was just about as good as it gets over a four year span.  In every one of those years, he struck out over 200 with ERAs below 3.00 and at least 17 wins.  He won the DTBL Cy Young Award in 2010 and finished third in 2008 and 2011.  On three occasions, he won 20+ games (2003, 2008, 2010).  In his 12 year career, he racked up 177 victories, which ranks 10th in league history and third among players who debuted after 2000, behind Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia.  Halladay is the Jackalope franchise career leader in wins and innings pitched and trails only Felix Hernandez in strikeouts.  His 75.8 Pitching PAR also leads the way, by a margin that will only increase when I get around to calculating the numbers from his first three seasons.  The Jackalope selected Halladay in the fourth round of the 2002 Draft.  I would say that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He was a critical piece of their first championship squad in 2011.

As designated hitters go, nobody has ever been as good for as long as Edgar Martinez.  Interestingly enough though, he actually got his start in this league as a third baseman for three years, even though DH was an official position in our league in those days.  While he could certainly hit for power, his carrying tool was his ability to hit for average.  His career mark of .316 ranks ninth in league history.  But he hit over .320 for six consecutive seasons from 1995 through 2000.  Martinez debuted for the Kings in 1993 and then played for the expansion Metros in 1994 before settling in with the Cougars for the remainder of his career (1995 through 2004).  Unfortunately, my transaction records are a little scattered from the 90s, so I don’t recall exactly how he made those team jumps.  I do know that the Cougars must have cut him loose after his typically solid 1998 season though because they then reacquired him with their first round pick in 1999.  I think expansion draft rules that year may have played a part.  But anyway, the Cougars managed to hang onto him and he continued to hit for them for years to come.  He won a DTBL Championship with the Cougars in 1996.  He is their career batting average leader at .317.  For his DTBL career, Martinez also hit 239 home runs with 956 RBI.  He topped 100 RBI in five different seasons.  There have been few pure hitters better than Edgar Martinez in the past quarter century.

Justin Verlander needs just two more wins to reach 200 for his DTBL career.  When he does that, he will become just the fifth player in league history to reach that mark.  The other four are now all Hall-of-Famers, thanks to the recent induction of Mike Mussina.  Had I not just looked it up, I don’t think I would have remembered or guessed that Mussina finished his career just one win shy of the league’s all time leader, Greg Maddux.  Mussina won 239 games despite never compiling 20 in a single season.  He won exactly 20 for the first and only time in his final season of 2008, but was an in-season free agent signing by the Moonshiners that year and only compiled 16 wins for them.  But he posted double digit wins in an impressive 15 of 16 DTBL seasons.  In addition to all the wins, he also ranks fifth in league history with 2,576 strikeouts and pitched more innings than every pitcher not named Maddux.  They are the only two to record over 3,000 DTBL innings.  Mussina was drafted by the Kings in 1993 and spent two seasons with them before being part of one of the league’s first blockbuster trades during the 1995 Draft.  Unfortunately, as covered earlier, my transaction records from those days are rather lacking, so I don’t have the complete details.  But I do recall it being a huge deal.  Anyway, it certainly worked out for the Choppers who retained his services for the next 13 seasons.  He and Greg Maddux top pretty much all of the Choppers career pitching numbers.  That duo were a big reason why the Choppers won league titles in 1997 and 1999.  While he might not be at the top of your mind when you think of the all-time great pitchers, he should be.  Mike Mussina was one of the best pitchers in DTBL history.

Mariano Rivera was the first player to ever be unanimously selected for the Hall of Fame.  His case for enshrinement was pretty impeccable.  Obviously, that would be true of his DTBL career as well.  His 643 career saves is an incredible 83 more than any other pitcher has accumulated.  I doubt anyone will come close to that total anytime soon.  He topped 30 saves in 15 of his 17 seasons, with injuries cutting short the two seasons in which he failed to reach that total.  Even in his final season of 2013, he managed to rack up 44 saves.  His career high save total came in 2004 with 53 and he reached 50 in 2001 as well.  But it wasn’t just the saves.  His 2.02 ERA and 0.973 WHIP are both easily the lowest in league history among pitchers with at least 800 innings pitched.  He had so many seasons with a sub 2.00 ERA and 40+ saves that it is basically impossible to pick a career best season.  486 of Rivera’s saves came with the Cougars who drafted him in the first round of 1997, coming right off the heals of their third championship in four years.  He remained with the Cougars all the way until 2009, when they traded him to the Mavericks for Mike Lowell, not the best trade the Cougars have ever made.  Rivera had a productive season and a half for the Mavericks before he was traded again during the 2011 Draft to the Choppers in exchange for a second round pick which would become Starlin Castro.  Rivera’s final two seasons were with the Choppers where he continued to be one of the best relievers in baseball.  Oddly enough, Rivera never won a DTBL Championship while winning five World Series titles with the Yankees.  Mariano Rivera rode one pitch, a nasty cutter, to a Hall of Fame career.  He is the greatest relief pitcher in MLB and DTBL history.

Finally, we have Lee Smith, the third former Thunder Chopper of this class.  Like Baines, he was selected by the Veterans Committee and compiled most of his Hall of Fame numbers before this league started.  That said, his DTBL career was short, but productive.  He was an inaugural DTBL Draft selection of the Choppers in 1993.  He saved 114 games for the Choppers in 1993 through 1995, which still puts him fourth in franchise history in that category.  His 33 saves in the strike shortened 1994 season led the league.  Through the first three seasons of this league’s history, Smith held the all-time saves lead.  Obviously that didn’t hold up very long though as he didn’t record a save in his final DTBL season of 1996.  While he bounced around a whole bunch of MLB teams in the latter stages of his career, he did not pitch for any DTBL team besides the Choppers.  One of the original fireballing closers, Lee Smith is a worthy Hall of Famer.

On to the awards for July 2019.

Batters of the Week:

Week 15 (7/1 – 7/7) – Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods
Week 16 (7/11 – 7/14) – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope
Week 17 (7/15 – 7/21) – Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
Week 18 (7/22 – 7/28) – Nelson Cruz, Komodos
Week 19 (7/29 – 8/4) – Starling Marte, Komodos

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 15 (7/1 – 7/7) – Aaron Nola, Demigods
Week 16 (7/11 – 7/14) – Mike Soroka, Mavericks
Week 17 (7/15 – 7/21) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
Week 18 (7/22 – 7/28) – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
Week 19 (7/29 – 8/4) – Justin Verlander, Kings

July was a good month for Braves players and Mavericks pitchers, as three of each won weekly awards.  Braves and Jackalope teammates Josh Donaldson and Ronald Acuna took the Batter of the Week honors surrounding the All-Star break.  Two other DTBL teammates won the award the following couple weeks as Komodos sluggers Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte finished the month with a bang.  The Mavericks pitching staff has been heating up as of late.  60% of their rotation claimed a weekly honor in July with Mike Soroka, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg all continuing to pitch extremely well.  Two of the players listed above parlayed their strong weeks into a full month of excellence in July.

Batter of the Month:

Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods
.398 AVG, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 18 R, 0 SB, 3.26 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
1.14 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 44 K, 3.21 PAR

Yulieski Gurriel has been a solid big league hitter for some time now.  But one thing that has kept him from being discussed among the elite players in the game is a relative lack of power at a position where big home run totals are expected.  Entering this season, his career high for homers was 18 in 2017.  Entering July, he was on his typically pedestrian pace with just eight dingers.  But then he went and hit 12 in a span of 18 games and has already smashed his career high mark.  In addition to the dozen July home runs, he also came just short of hitting .400 for the month (.398).  Despite those gaudy numbers, he won this award by the slimmest of margins over Moonshiners third baseman Rafael Devers, who has basically been on fire for three straight months now.  Nobody else was close to Gurriel or Devers.

It is genarally a good sign for a pitcher when he allows fewer earned runs than he knocks in at the plate in any given game.  In July, Stephen Strasburg pulled that trick for the entire month!  He surrendered just four earned runs while compiling a 1.14 ERA and added six RBIs to help his own cause while at the plate.  Strasburg continues the trend of veteran pitchers winning this monthly pitching honor.  But at 31 years old, he is actually the youngest pitcher to win this award in 2019.  He was a comfortable winner, but two other pitchers who had a great run in July were Astros righties Justin Verlander (Kings) and Gerrit Cole (Jackalope).  With the addition of Zack Greinke to their rotation, it would appear the Astros are well armed for another World Series run.

A reminder that the DTBL trade deadline is coming up next week:  Thursday, August 15.  Trades must be accepted by both parties by midnight on the 15th, even though trades consummated between the 12th and 15th won’t be processed until the following Monday.

2019 Season Preview: Part III

Wednesday, March 27th, 2019

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Happy Opening Day Eve!  Yeah, there are already a couple games in the books, but things get started for real tomorrow.  I, for one, can not wait!  As we move into the top half of the projected standings, we’ve already seen a lot of surprises.  This third part of the preview series will cover a pair of teams that are similar in terms of projected strength in 2019, but are otherwise quite different in composition, strengths and weaknesses.  Finishing close in the standings wouldn’t be all that strange though, considering they finished last season with identical point totals.  I’m leaving three teams for the final part of this series because these projections have those three comfortably ahead of the pair I’m about to cover.  Look for that sometime this weekend.  In the meantime, here are a couple teams projected to finish near the middle of the pack this season.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th-T)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)
  • Wins - 6th (6th-T)
  • Saves - 1st (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (4th)
  • Total Points – 5th (6th-T)

Summary:

Perhaps no team looks more like the 2018 version of itself than the Moonshiners.  These projections show them gaining a few points in RBIs, dropping a few in strikeouts, but otherwise staying almost exactly the same.  There is a pretty solid explanation for that.  The core of players who they will be counting on to carry them this season hasn’t changed.  Several of their newest additions are future bets, like first round pick Shohei Ohtani, who will moonlight as a hitter this season before likely taking over as their staff ace next year.  One alarming issue the Moonshiners have heading into the season is a slew of injuries.  Most of those were known before these projections were generated though, so that in and of itself isn’t a reason to doubt the projections.  Last year, the Moonshiners obliterated the league record for worst team batting average, hitting just .231, 18 points behind the next worst mark (also the Moonshiners, 2016).  They are projected to hit .252 this year, which is still worst in the league, but a huge improvement.  For a while now, they have lacked huge star power on the offense.  That still appears to be the case as Ohtani has the second highest batting PAR projection on the team, trailing only Khris Davis.  But Michael Conforto and Aaron Hicks are two underrated outfielders who could give them a nice boost this season.  The pitching staff is basically the same as last year.  It is a solid, yet unspectacular group.  All five likely members of their Opening Day rotation are above average pitchers:  Zack Greinke, German Marquez, Robbie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and Charlie Morton.  Marquez was the big surprise of the group last season as he was the first especially valuable Rockies pitcher in quite some time.  The bullpen is very good as well, currently projected to lead the league in saves.  Edwin Diaz will have a hard time duplicating his 57 saves from a year ago, but is still arguably the best closer in baseball.  Roberto Osuna is in the upper echelon as well.  The Moonshiners seem to be focused on building a solid core for the future, using early draft picks on payers like Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  But they are in a position to contend should a few guys take big steps forward this season.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • Home Runs - 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)
  • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
  • Wins – 8th (10th)
  • Saves – 10th (6th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (10th)
  • Total Points – 4th (6th-T)

Summary:

This section requires a whole assortment of caveats.  In fact, I wouldn’t pay much attention to the numbers above if I were you.  No team is harder to pin down on expectations for 2019.  Last season, the Mavericks pitching staff was absolutely ravaged by injuries.  Every one of their key starters missed significant time.  What was once the best pitching staff in the league, by far, wound up finishing dead last in pitching points in 2018.  In what I assume was an effort to avoid a repeat of that, the Mavericks have loaded their bench with pitching depth.  Their post-draft roster consisted of the minimum 14 batters and a league high 14 pitchers.  Since these projections take all 28 players into account, it is safe to assume that the pitching projections are hurt with more pitchers diluting the numbers of their best guys.  On the flip side, they have far less dilution of the offensive numbers compared to most teams.  So the overall point projection for the Mavericks is probably fair.  But I’d tack on a handful of pitching points and shave off a few from the batting side of the ledger.  One thing is certain:  the Mavericks will mash.  No team has a larger collection of superstar sluggers.  A draft day trade to acquire Juan Soto gives them an envious outfield trio of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, all of whom could be MVP candidates.  The infield isn’t bad either, especially with Manny Machado, Javy Baez and Ozzie Albies up the middle.  The only offensive weakness is stolen bases, where they are projected to finish last.  The Mavericks fortunes this season will come down to pitching.  As previously stated, the have a large stable of pitchers to turn to in the event that their starters can’t stay healthy again.  But ideally, they will be able to turn to Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty to easily smash last year’s numbers as well as these projections.  The bullpen is not the dominant force it used to be, but with Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc, I’d say there is a good chance they won’t finish last in saves as they are projected here.  The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from their worst finish since 2011.  They have an excellent chance to do that.  But trying to use these projections to determine their fate may be a losing cause.

Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

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The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year’s group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in ’18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year’s most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won’t see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn’t play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won’t get their money’s worth until next year and beyond.

The Mavericks aren’t used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so ’18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he’s unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won’t see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we’ll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let’s keep up the good work!

2018 Season Preview: Part IV

Saturday, March 31st, 2018

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We’ve reached the final portion of the 2018 DTBL season preview.  Not surprisingly, the two teams projected to finish at the top of the standings are the same squads that occupied those spots most of last season as well.  In case you are curious, they were not projected to finish first or second in this series last spring.  Those spots belonged to the Kings and Choppers, who finished ninth and seventh respectively.  So being tabbed a pre-season favorite most certainly doesn’t guarantee success.  Having said that, it would be pretty surprising if these teams aren’t in the hunt again this year.  They both added some exciting young talent to already loaded rosters.  Not a whole lot separates these teams in the projections.  One point, to be exact.  One of them is projected to lead the league in pitching points.  Its probably not the team you expect.  Here are the top two DTBL Championship contenders.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In - 4th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average - 2nd (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (9th)
  • Wins - 2nd (7th)
  • Saves – 8th (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 2nd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (7th)
  • Total Points - 2nd (2nd-T)

Summary:

The overall projected ranking of the Naturals is about what one might have expected.  But the individual category rankings are pretty shocking.  Last year, the Naturals had the best offense in the league, but were ultimately unable to stick with the Mavericks because of a below average pitching staff.  In this year’s draft, they continued to add pieces to the offense while only selecting one starting pitcher in the first half of the draft (Garrett Richards).  Yet now they are projected to lead the league in pitching points, with the bulk of that staff being the same as the one that struggled a year ago.  The main reason for this is fairly obvious:  health.  Noah Syndergaard is the Naturals best pitcher, but threw just 30 innings a year ago.  David Price was also hurt much of the year and finished the season in the bullpen.  If those two are healthy all year, the Naturals are close to a lock to exceed their ’17 pitching numbers.  James Paxton and Carlos Carrasco carried the rotation last year and will be complementary pieces again this season.  Felipe Rivero joins Raisel Iglesias to give the Naturals two excellent closers.  I wouldn’t call the bullpen a strength, but it should be decent.  The batting projections are slightly concerning as they don’t like the Naturals chances of leading the league in batting points again this year.  But there are still some very high upside youngsters on this roster, including Yoan Moncada, Victor Robles and Lewis Brinson, who have all been among the top ranked prospects in baseball the past few years.  Nolan Arrenado is projected to be their top hitter again this year.  A healthy Trea Turner would be right up there too.  Joey Votto, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera and Marcell Ozuna are among their dependable veteran bats.  I think it is very likely the Naturals will exceed these offensive projections.  If they do, they might be the championship favorites.  At any rate, it would be surprising if they aren’t in a pennant race again this year.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (8th)
  • Home Runs - 5th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 5th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 10th (6th)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points - 3rd (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (1st)
  • Total Points - 1st (1st)

Summary:

The defending champs appear to be well positioned to become the first DTBL team to repeat since the 2011 Darkhorses finished off their four-peat.  But this is not quite the same Mavericks team that won it all a year ago.  They still have an elite pitching staff, but may not be able to smoke the rest of the pack in most pitching categories again this year.  On the other hand, they won it all despite having a mediocre offense last year.  This squad looks much stronger with the bats, despite not being a priority in the draft outside of first round pick Ozzie Albies.  Mike Trout and Aaron Judge pretty much guarantee that the Mavericks offense won’t suck.  The Orioles infield duo of Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are also the Mavericks top infielders.  The outfield is in good hands with Trout, Judge, Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Mazara.  While the Mavericks aren’t expected to finish at the top of the league in any of the batting categories, they also don’t have an obvious weakness.  The pitching staff remains loaded.  Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish have been carrying the rotation for years, and are back to do it again this season.  Zack Godley is a nice addition as well.  Perhaps the most intriguing pitcher on the roster is Alex Reyes, who they drafted in the second round with a pick they received from the Komodos for Aroldis Chapman.  It isn’t clear what role Reyes will play when he returns from Tommy John surgery in May or June, but the latest word is that he will be a starter.  That would be a huge boost to the Mavericks win and strikeout potential.  The bullpen is full of power arms that may not accumulate a ton of saves, but will be a boon to the other four pitching categories.  Not included in these projections is Keone Kela, who they recently signed as a free agent and appears to be the choice to close games for the Rangers.  Also with Kenley Jansen, the Mavericks should have a decent shot of not finishing last in saves like these projections have them.  They may not demolish the rest of the league in ERA and WHIP as they have in recent years, but this still looks like it could be the best pitching staff in the league.  The Mavericks appear poised to finish in the top four of the league for the seventh straight season:  a remarkable run of sustained success.

Below are the full 2018 projected standings.  As you can see, not a whole lot separates the Mavericks, Naturals and Kings at the top.  Past seasons have shown these projections to be compelling, but certainly not infallible.  Let’s see how it all plays out.  Welcome to the 26th Dream Team Baseball League season!

Komodos Nab Bellinger

Monday, March 19th, 2018

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The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

 

 

Judge Rules Over Rookies

Wednesday, November 15th, 2017

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Let’s cut to the chase.  Putting Aaron Judge at the top of the ballot for Rookie of the Year was probably one of the easiest decisions each of us made this year.  That’s not to say there weren’t many good first year players in the league this year.  Quite the opposite, actually.  But none of those other rookies had one of the best offensive seasons in recent league history during their maiden voyages.  Judge did.  He already won the American League Rookie of the Year award and is likely to be a strong contender for the DTBL Most Valuable Player award which will be announced next week.  Mavericks outfielder Aaron Judge is the unanimous selection as the 2017 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

Before I go too much further, I need to point out that I have not yet completed the post-season adjustments to the 2017 PAR totals.  Because of the offensive explosion in the league this season, expect hitters’ PAR totals to go down a bit.  With that said, Judge just posted the fourth highest batting PAR for seasons in which it has been calculated to date (since 2009).  Granted, two of the three totals ahead of Judge’s 11.0 were also accumulated this year.  So it was a hitter friendly environment.  Nonetheless, Judge’s numbers speak of themselves.  He slugged 49 home runs, finishing second in the league behind Giancarlo Stanton and also second in league history among rookies, trailing only Ryan Howard’s 58 homers in 2006.  His 120 runs scored ranked third in the league and he also drove in triple digits:  106.  Additionally, he stole nine bases and hit a very respectable .287.  Not bad for a guy with swing-and-miss issues.  Judge led the Mavericks in HR, RBI and R.  Perhaps his most impressive feat was topping Mike Trout to lead the Mavericks in batting PAR.  It is the first time in Trout’s career that he has not led them in that category.

This was a pretty special season for the Mavericks organization, and Judge was obviously a huge part of that.  After hitting just .179 with four homers in 27 games at the end of 2016, none of the ten DTBL teams decided to select Judge during the draft this March.  But the Mavericks wisely moved in with a free agent claim in the second week of the season.  One season does not make a career, but this is already looking like the biggest free agent heist in league history.  One day we may look back and wonder how in the world Aaron Judge was not among the 280 players on a DTBL roster to start this season.  Actually, that day has already passed.  Anyway, all the Mavericks got out of their early season free agent signing was one of the best seasons in recent memory, and with it, a league championship.

I probably would have had to question anybody who didn’t put Judge #1 on their ballot.  Fortunately, that didn’t prove necessary as he received all ten first place votes for a point total of a perfect 100.  Jake Arrieta was a unanimous choice for this award two years ago, but the last hitter to do it was Judge’s Mavericks teammate Mike Trout.  Trout was also the last Maverick to win this award.  Comfortably finishing in second place was Gators third baseman Jose Ramirez who shocked everybody by hitting .318 with 29 home runs and 17 stolen bases.  Ramirez appeared on all ten ballots and received eight of the ten second place votes for a total of 64 points.  Finishing third was another breakout star with little hype entering the season, Moonshiners 7th round pick, Robbie Ray.  The hard-throwing lefty struck out 195 in just 143 innings for the Moonshiners.  Ray also received votes from all ten people and was the third choice for seven of them, finishing with 46 points.  The only first round pick to finish in the top five was Jackalope catcher Gary Sanchez.  Definitely one of the favorites for this award entering the season, Sanchez did not disappoint.  He clubbed 33 homers at one of the few remaining positions where big offensive numbers are hard to come by.  Sanchez was only on half the ballots, but accumulated 17 points.  Finally, a relief pitcher sneaked into the five hole.  Darkhorses closer Corey Knebel wasn’t signed as a free agent until May, but racked up 39 saves anyway.  An interesting note about him is that he was technically on a DTBL roster a year ago, but the Moonshiners never put him on their major league roster, preserving his rookie status into this season.  Knebel received one second place vote which helped him reach 15 total points and this fifth place ranking.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Even though all of the major MLB awards are being announced this week, you are going to have to wait until next week to find out who won the other two big DTBL awards.  Next up will be the Cy Young award, which will probably be announced next Monday.

Mavericks Rise to the Occasion

Wednesday, October 4th, 2017

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The Mavericks drafted Mike Trout in the second round of the 2012 DTBL Draft, which remains nearly undisputed as the best draft pick in league history, since the inaugural draft. Not coincidentally, since the day they drafted Trout, the Mavericks have been a championship contender. Clearly they have been the most dominant franchise in the league over the past half-dozen years. But one fairly important thing was missing during that stretch: a league championship. Well, their sustained excellence has finally been rewarded. For the third time in franchise history, Marc’s Mavericks are the DTBL Champions.

Since 2012, the Mavericks have finished in second place three times, third once and their “worst” finish was fourth place a year ago, when they were only 3 1/2 points behind the league champs. Prefer judging teams’ individual season performances by points rather than place of finish? Well, the Mavericks have been consistently dominant in that area as well. They haven’t finished with fewer than 66 points since 2011. This year, no other team even came close to that mark. They won the league by a convincing 11 1/2 points. Since 2008, the only team with a larger margin of victory was the 2015 Jackalope.

So what made this Mavericks squad slightly better than their recent teams that fell just a little short? Well, from a points perspective, not a lot changed. It was largely a matter of all other contenders having fatal flaws while the Mavericks continued to ride a dominant pitching staff and a good, but not great, offense. The Mavericks once again had the best pitching staff in the league. They led the way with 43 1/2 pitching points and have now topped the league in pitching four of the past five seasons. On the hitting side, they actually took a slight step back from a year ago, finishing with 29 batting points, which was bested by seven other teams.

It’s actually pretty shocking that the Mavericks finished eighth in offense, because they had a bunch of guys who had outstanding seasons. They lacked the offensive balance of a few other teams, but had plenty of star power. As usual, Mike Trout was dominant. But a thumb injury cost him nearly 1/3 of the season and prevented him from leading the team in PAR for the sixth straight season. Instead that honor went to another guy who the Mavericks somehow found off the scrap heap better known as the free agent pool. All rise…

Aaron Judge was signed as a free agent by the Mavericks during the second week of the season. The mammoth outfielder was in the draft pool, but was passed over by 120 other players. In fairness, Judge had the look of a potential bust of a prospect having shown major contact problems during his first MLB stint. Some were surprised he even made the Yankees Opening Day roster. But the Mavericks beat the rest of the league to the punch and signed him following his solid start to the season. 49 home runs later, Judge is a mortal lock to win Rookie of the Year and will receive strong MVP consideration as well. With Judge a free agent signing, Trout a second round pick and Clayton Kershaw a sixth round pick, it is hard to say which current Maverick was the biggest steal in franchise history, but all three rank right up there in league history as well.

Besides Trout and Judge, the Mavericks also got great seasons from a number of other hitters: third basemen Manny Machado (33 HR, 95 RBI) and Mike Moustakas (38 HR), first round draft pick Andrew Benintendi (20 HR, 20 SB) and speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton. Hamilton led the league with 58 stolen bases. But the biggest surprise had to be second baseman Jonathan Schoop. All the ninth round pick from 2016 did was hit 32 bombs with 105 RBI.

Enough about the hitters though. It was the continued excellence of the Mavericks pitching staff that carried them to this championship. They led the league in ERA and WHIP by wide margins and tied the Demigods for most wins. Both the rotation and bullpen were unmatched in terms of dominance. Unlike the offense, which featured some key newcomers, the pitching staff was the same old guard. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg did the heavy lifting, with an assist from Yu Darvish. Strasburg’s performance was especially key since the rotation didn’t have quite the same depth as previous versions. Kershaw was unable to make it through a full healthy season again, but still wound up finishing in the top three in the league in ERA, WHIP and tied for first in wins. Strasburg wasn’t as flashy, but topped 200 strikeouts and had his best season since 2014.

The bullpen gave the Mavericks a huge advantage over the rest of the league in ERA, WHIP and especially strikeouts. Kenley Jansen and Dellin Betances both topped 100 strikeouts. Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman may have done the same had they been 100% healthy for the full season. Aroyds Vizcaino, who finished the season as the Braves closer, couldn’t even crack the Mavericks lineup most of the year. This bullpen was truly an embarrassment of riches.

Another way in which you can see how loaded the Mavericks roster was is in the quality of the players they cast aside. Four players they released at some point this year could receive consideration as keepers for teams that signed them later in the year: Josh Bell, Byron Buxton, Steven Souza and Dylan Bundy. It is going to be very interesting to see how the Mavericks cut down to 16 keepers this winter, because they have a lot more guys than that who most teams would want.

This is the third DTBL Championship for the Mavericks and the first in over a decade (2004, 2006). They are now tied with the Cougars for the fourth most DTBL titles, trailing the Kings (6), Darkhorses (5) and Naturals (4). Only the Kings have more top two finishes than the Mavericks’ eight. The Mavericks are pretty clearly one of the league’s elite franchises. Now they have a recent championship to prove it.

Congrats to Marc on a great season! Much more to come over the next few weeks as I recap the 2017 season.