Memorial Day is usually a good point in the season to take stock in how the baseball season is going and examine where it may be headed. As usual, there are hitters and pitchers who are vastly exceeding expectations, and have done so for long enough to make you think it may not be a fluke. Some of those players are helping to put their DTBL teams at or near the top of the standings. However, there seems to be a much bigger factor in determining a team’s success (or lack there of) this season: injuries.
Almost daily, there is another key player going down to an injury, whether it be a minor day-to-day issue, or one that has the player headed to season ending surgery. We’ve had torn ACLs, torn UCLs, sprained knees, torn hamstrings, broken hands, blurred vision, chronic illness, you name it. It started in spring training when two closers were lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery (Naturals’ Joakim Soria, Jackalope Ryan Madson). Two DTBL first round draft picks are yet to play a game this season (Kings’ Michael Morse, Choppers’ Michael Pineda). It is never a good sign when two of the most mentioned names in baseball are Tommy John and Dr. James Andrews.
Even the previously indestructible players are falling victim to this plague. The surest thing in baseball, Choppers’ Mariano Rivera, tore his ACL while shagging fly balls. And just yesterday, the always reliable Roy Halladay (Jackalope) was lost for 6-8 weeks due to a lat strain. Halladay wasn’t the only ace to go down yesterday either. Jered Weaver (Moonshiners) was pulled from his start in the first inning with a back problem. Fellow Moonshiner starting pitcher Ted Lilly hit the DL as well, as did red hot Kings catcher Jonathan LuCroy who suffered the freakiest injury of the season, breaking his hand due to a falling suitcase in a hotel room.
In those last two paragraphs, I named nine different players, and that didn’t even begin to scratch the surface. Every DTBL team has been affected, some more than others. I probably need to take a closer look at each roster to see if this is still the case, but prior to this most recent string of injuries, there were three teams in particular who had been absolutely decimated: the Darkhorses, Choppers and Demigods. All three are around the double digit mark in total number of players who have spent time on the DL, including some very critical losses. I suspect the Moonshiners are moving close to this list as well after losing 40% of their rotation yesterday. The Darkhorses injury problems were so bad, for a while they were fielding a major league roster with at least three disabled players. The Choppers and Demigods minors are/were filled with virtually nothing but injured players.
The Mavericks have been in first place virtually the entire season. In large part, that is because they had been the healthiest team in the league. Until about a week ago, their only injured player was 12th round draft pick, and projected bench player, Lorenzo Cain. But now the Mavericks have joined the rest of the league after having lost Neftali Feliz and Austin Jackson. Still, they are in better shape than most. With the exception of two pre-season injuries (Madson and Ryan Howard), the Jackalope had been relatively healthy as well, which helped guide them past the Mavericks for a couple days last week. But now this Halladay injury could be a major problem for the defending champions.
On a positive note, these injuries have certainly restrained any one team from running out to a huge lead, keeping most of the league very much in the mix. Half of the league is within 10 points of first place and two others are within 20. So if any of these teams can get relatively healthy, there are plenty of points to be gained. But that “healthy” term seems inconceivable for some teams at this point.
It was suggested to me by one league member that we look into adding additional DL slot(s) to our rosters in the future. I am not necessarily opposed to this idea, but keep in mind that such a change would require a number of other adjustments as well, like the total number of players on the league roster and maybe a change to the free agent signing limit too. This is a conversation I’m willing to have though if the consensus is that change is needed. Obviously, no change will be made for this season though. In the mean time, hopefully some of this madness will come to an end and we’ll be able to determine a champion based on player performance rather than healthy body tallies.
Hopefully my next article will be about player(s) who are actually contributing to their DTBL squads!
The first month of the season is coming close to being in the books – yet I still haven’t finished all these team “previews.” It seems pretty ridiculous to write team blurbs at this point, so I’ll post the remaining draft grades along with favorite picks
Moonshiners
Projected Finish: Seventh
2011 Finish: Third
AVG: C .. HR: A … R: A … RBI: A … SB: D … W: F … ERA: F … WHIP: F … K: D … SV: C
Marc’s favorite draft pick: Emilio Bonifacio, Round 5 – Had a great 2011, qualifies at SS and his name is fun to say!
Mike’s favorite draft pick: David Freese, Round 6 – World Series MVP has had trouble staying healthy, but he was one of the more solid hitters at a thin 3B
Naturals
Projected Finish: Sixth
2011 Finish: Second
AVG: A … HR: C … R: C … RBI: C … SB: C … W: F … ERA: C … WHIP: D … K: C … SV: C
Marc’s favorite draft pick: Nick Markakis, Round 4 – I refuse to believe that his power will not break through … some day
Nick’s favorite draft pick: Jesus Montero, Round 1 – expected to put up 1B-type numbers from the C position
Demigods
Projected Finish: Fourth
2011 Finish: Fifth
AVG: A … HR: B … R: B … RBI: B … SB: C … W: D … ERA: A … WHIP: A … K: F … SV: C
Marc’s favorite draft pick: Bud Norris, Round 12 – wildcard flier, could collect a lot of Ks
Dom’s favorite draft pick: Freddie Freeman, Round 1 – Seemed somewhat similar to Eric Hosmer, but wasn’t getting near as much hype
For the third consecutive year, the Mavericks will have multiple first round picks in the DTBL Draft. And for the second year in a row, they possess two of the first three picks. The Mavericks made a pair of trades this week, continuing their youth movement. In the first, they actually traded away a pick, sending their third round selection to the Naturals in exchange for second baseman Rickie Weeks. They followed that up by acquiring the second and twelfth overall picks in the upcoming draft from the Gators for outfielder Nelson Cruz and third baseman Mark Reynolds.
Assuming they stand pat, when the first round finishes next week, the Mavericks will have made seven first round selections in the three most recent drafts. The first two years have seen mixed results from this strategy, but it is way too early to write it off as a failure. With an opportunity to pick two of the top three players available this year, one would think they have a great opportunity to find a superstar in the making this time around. But of course, there is also an inherent risk in betting on young players.
When I first saw the details of the Mavericks/Gators trade, I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks. Acquiring two of the first twelve picks in a draft is a pretty solid return, and giving up early picks can be a dangerous strategy for a rebuilding team. However, I have come around on this after taking a closer look. A very solid argument could be made that Nelson Cruz is a better player than anyone available in this year’s draft. In fact, most fantasy player rankings I have seen have Cruz listed ahead of everyone who will be in the draft pool. He instantly becomes the Gators best offensive player, and along with Reynolds, should immediately improve what was possibly the worst offensive team in league history last season. The ’11 Gators didn’t have a single player drive in over 85 runs and only Dan Uggla hit more than 25 home runs. Cruz and Reynolds surpassed those numbers in both categories. The Gators couldn’t afford to miss on improving their offense and these two players are much safer bets than anyone they could have drafted. Plus, the Gators have had a string of first round picks that haven’t exactly panned out, so maybe it is just as well not to have to worry about a continuation of that trend this year.
It wouldn’t make much sense for me to predict who the Mavericks will take with all of their early picks, but I think it is safe to assume they will go with more youngsters. I also feel confident in predicting they will not select a catcher with a top three pick for the third consecutive season. The re-acquisition of Weeks was an interesting move as well. When healthy, he is one of the most productive middle infielders, which was a major area of weakness for the Mavericks last year. Weeks was a first round pick by the Mavericks back in 2006 and spent three years with the club before he was released in ’08. His best season came with the Naturals in 2010 when he hit 29 home runs and drove in 83, obliterating his previous career highs. Last season was cut short due to an injury, but he still hit 19 home runs. The Mavericks will probably be the hardest team to predict for the upcoming season. They have the potential to be the league’s most improved team. They have an interesting situation with two relief pitchers already on the roster who are expected to be starters (Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard), so they could potentially go with a seven man rotation. However, if that doesn’t pan out and the early draft picks don’t work out either, it could be another long year. I don’t think any other team has a wider gap between their potential ceiling and floor.
As for the Naturals, Weeks was expendable because they have two other quality middle infielders in Troy Tulowitzki and Asdrubal Cabrera. They will have plenty of opportunities to address second base in the draft. Generally speaking, they don’t have too many holes to fill, so the extra draft pick can be used to build depth at pretty much any position they would like. The Naturals should be a title contender for the fourth straight year.
My goal is to have the draft pool posted in the next couple days. I’m looking at one week from tonight, Thursday March 8, as the potential start date of the 2012 DTBL Draft. It’s hard to believe we have reached another milestone. This will be the 20th DTBL Draft.
You’ve heard all about the champion Jackalope. Now it’s time to take a look back at the 2011 season for the other nine teams. I’ve grouped them into three categories: the good, the bad and the ugly. These groups don’t necessarily relate to the order of finish, but how competitive the teams were compared to expectations. The three teams I identified as “good” all finished higher in the standings than they did a year ago and should feel like they are headed in the right direction. “Bad” isn’t really the right word for the second group, because two of the three teams actually finished near the top of the standings. Disappointing is a better way to describe them. Finally, the teams that fall into the “ugly” category would probably like to pretend 2011 never happened.
THE GOOD
Mike’s Moonshiners
The quickest team out of the gate, the Moonshiners led the league for a good part of the first quarter of the season. They stumbled a bit in early summer and never really recovered, finishing in third place. However, that was up two spots from a year ago and was their best finish since 2008. The improvement was almost entirely due to the pitching staff, which received a huge boost from the Jackalope trade which brought them ace pitcher and Cy Young candidate Jared Weaver. While I already mentioned how beneficial that trade was to the Jackalope, the impact was similar for the Moonshiners. Weaver turned their average pitching staff into one of the league’s best. He finished in the top five of the league in ERA, WHIP and wins. Meanwhile, the offense was carried by slugging first baseman Prince Fielder (38 HR, 120 RBI) and 30/30 man Ian Kinsler (32 HR, 30 SB). Now that the pitching staff has been fixed, the Moonshiners will look to improve their offense going into 2012. With the Jackalope winning their first title this year, the Moonshiners are now the longest tenured DTBL team without a title. They figure to have a good chance to change that next year.
Dom’s Demigods
The biggest jump in the standings was made by the Demigods. After finishing dead last a year ago, they managed to move into the top half of the standings with a fifth place finish in 2011. This is despite the fact that they got almost nothing out of their first overall pick (Buster Posey); same with his catching partner Joe Mauer. The rest of the offense was surprisingly good though, finishing in the top five in every category and leading the league in batting average. The indisputable MVP of the team was Matt Kemp, who hit .324 with 39 HR, 126 RBI, 115 R, 40 SB. He led the league in RBIs and was the only player to appear on the league leaderboard in all five categories. He even flirted with the NL Triple Crown until the final week of the season. The pitching staff was a bit of a disappointment, but overall, the Demigods appear to be headed in the right direction.
Charlie’s Thunder Choppers
Although they only wound up finishing one spot higher than a year ago (6th, up from 7th), this was a much better year for the Choppers. They were a title contender in the second half of the season for the first time in five years. They wound up finishing 16 1/2 points out of first, cutting almost half the deficit from a year ago (32 points). As I documented in an article a couple months ago, it was some recent first round draft picks that helped pump some more juice into the Choppers offense. Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson finished first and second in the league in home runs (43 and 41 respectively). Both are strong MVP candidates, while Bautista is even eligible for the DTBL Rookie of the Year award. Granderson led the league with 136 runs scored, the highest total since 2007. The Choppers boast another strong ROY candidate in closer Craig Kimbrel who saved 46 games in his first full MLB season. If the Choppers can add one or two more elite starting pitchers, they are another team to watch in 2012.
THE BAD
Nick’s Naturals
Okay, I admit it isn’t really fair to put the Naturals in a category labeled as “bad”, because they were definitely not that. But a defending champion almost always has its sights set on repeating, and the Naturals weren’t quite able to do that this year, finishing a distant second. In some ways, this Naturals team was every bit as good as the one that tied for title last year, but the Jackalope were just a little better. The Naturals were unable to repeat their amazing feat of 50 batting points from a year ago, but still led the league with 45. They figured they would need to get more out of their pitching staff though. Unfortunately for them, that didn’t really happen. Newly acquired Zack Greinke was solid, but he, along with the rest of the staff, didn’t have a truly spectacular season. Still, the Naturals shouldn’t regret their Greinke/Howard trade, because the pitching would have been worse without Greinke. Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto led the league’s best offense. Cabrera won the batting title with a .344 average. Overall, there is nothing for the Naturals to be ashamed of this year. They were as close as one half point behind the Jackalope in late August. They figure to be right back in the title hunt again next year.
Kevin’s Kings
Again, this wasn’t a “bad” season for the Kings. They finished exactly where they did a year ago, in fourth place. However, this time fourth place meant 15 points back and not really a serious contender down the stretch. Last year, they were in the hunt right until the end and finished just five points behind the co-champions. Other than place of finish, there was virtually nothing in common between the 2010 and 2011 Kings. This year’s squad had a below average offense and one of the league’s best pitching staffs. It was just the opposite in ’10. The main reason for the pitching upswing was one man: Justin Verlander. Verlander tied a DTBL single season record with 24 wins. He also led the league in WHIP (0.920) and strike outs (250). Really, he’s the only Kings pitcher who sticks out as having an impressive year, yet they managed to garner 40 pitching points. On offense, it was an underwhelming and injury plagued season for almost all of the Kings stars. Jose Reyes bounced back to being one of the league’s elite players, but he too couldn’t stay healthy. It is hard to say where this franchise is headed. Without Verlander’s monster year, they could have finished near the bottom of the standings this year. On the other hand, had a few key guys stayed healthy, they may have been in the hunt until the end.
Marc’s Mavericks
Now this is the one team in this group where the “bad” label probably applies. For the second straight year, the Mavericks finished in eighth place. But this isn’t a franchise that typically goes through long rebuilding processes. Last year, they were completely wrecked by injuries and essentially gave up with a couple months to play. This year, they had some injuries, but that wasn’t the biggest problem. Disappointing seasons from almost all of their young players gave them little hope of competing. They have had five first round picks the past two years, and I would call several of them major disappointments at this point. Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters had decent seasons at a weak offensive position, but the jury is still out on them. Gordon Beckham and Jayson Heward have been huge busts so far. The only Maverick who really stood out as having a tremendous 2011 season was Clayton Kershaw. Kerhsaw led the league in ERA (2.28) and was just behind Verlander in WHIP (0.977), wins (21) and strike outs (248). It should definitely come down to those two for the Cy Young award. The Mavericks really need to hit some home runs with their early picks in next year’s draft because the last two years have been rather forgettable.
THE UGLY
David’s Darkhorses
The Darkhorses set a standard of excellence in winning four consecutive DTBL championships from 2006-2010. This year, not only did they fail to meet that standard, but they wound up with the worst finish in league history for a defending champion, finishing a distant seventh. They won those four titles by having the most balanced team in the league, usually finishing first or second in both batting and pitching. This year, they somehow managed to fall to the middle of the pack in both areas. Injuries were a factor, but not to the extent you would expect for a team that fell apart like this. Below average seasons for most of the roster is the main explanation. I suppose it was bound to happen eventually. On the bright side, Jacoby Ellsbury turned himself into one of the best fantasy players with a 32 HR, 39 SB season while hitting .321. His Red Sox teammate Adrian Gonzalez had another solid year for the Darkhorses, but dropped off a bit in the second half. One major problem with the pitching staff was the criminally bad run support Tim Lincecum received. He only won 13 games despite putting up his usual dominating numbers in the other categories. James Shields and Chris Carpenter also won fewer games than you would expect from their other numbers. I’ll chalk this up as a worst-case scenario season for the Darkhorses. Surely, things will go better next year.
Greg’s Gators
I should point out that until the final day of the season, it appeared the Gators, and possibly the Cougars as well, were going to break the DTBL record for fewest total points in the 10 team era. Fortunately for them, both teams picked up a point or two in the final day and avoided this place in history. They wound up tied for ninth place with a putrid 21 total points, one clear of the record low mark of 20 by Tim’s Titans in 1999.
While the Gators did avoid that distinction, they managed to set a different low water mark. Their six batting points are the fewest ever in the 10 team era (since ’98, batting or pitching). Only a couple stolen bases prevented them from finishing dead last in all five offensive categories. Sadly, they were in last by a fairly wide margin in most categories. They are going to have a tough time finding enough players worthy of keeping. About the only offensive player who put up keeper-worthy numbers was Dan Uggla, and even he only hit .233. The pitching staff was a little better, mostly thanks to C.C. Sabathia. Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Josh Johnson prevented them from having a pretty respectable staff. Overall, there is a lot of work to do for this squad. I think 2011 was clearly the worst season in franchise history.
Kelly’s Cougars
I think Kelly clearly had more important things on her mind this year, which caused her to not put a lot of time and effort into her team. I’m not sure it would have mattered though. Much as was the case with the White Sox, Adam Dunn almost single-handedly ruined the Cougars season. Nobody had a particularly good season either though. Josh Hamilton fought through injuries, and other key players were simply inconsistent. The pitching staff was especially poor, though that can be partly blamed on the loss of staff ace Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery before the season even started. This will be chalked up as a forgettable year for the Cougars. Perhaps with some bounce back years from their key players, 2012 should be better.
With just over two weeks remaining in the 2011 season, the DTBL Championship race is fairly clear: either Jay’s Jackalope or Nick’s Naturals will be the 2011 champions (and thanks to last year, I have to add the caveat that they BOTH could win the title). The Jackalope have been at the top of the standings most of the season. About a month ago, the Naturals made things very interesting, getting as close as one half point behind. They currently sit four points back. The next five teams are closely bunched with each other, but are at least 14 points behind the Jackalope.
I don’t have a good mathematical formula to figure this out, but I would put the Jackalope odds of winning the championship at close to 85%. While four points can be made up in no time, the Jackalope are in an envious position because they have a fair amount of space between them and the nearest competitor in most categories. Barring a collapse, the only categories in which I could see them losing ground are wins and strike outs, with strike outs being very unlikely since the chasing Kings pitching staff has fallen apart in recent weeks. Wins is a little more likely, with just two points separating them from the Moonshiners. The interesting thing there though is that the Naturals really need to hold off the Moonshiners in strike outs and perhaps catch them in WHIP. So they somehow need that to happen and have the Moonshiners catch the Jackalope in wins at the same time.
I would be shocked if the Jackalope finished with fewer than 79 points. That leaves a tall order for the defending co-champion Naturals. It is doable though. There are 1 1/2 points to be gained in the batting categories if they can pass up the Demigods for the batting average lead and break their current tie with the Kings in stolen bases. But the best path to the title would be two spectacular weeks from their pitching staff. They have an outside shot at gaining points in ERA and WHIP, but that would depend on other teams faltering as well. Wins and saves are possibilities too. Keep an eye on all four of these categories over the final weeks.
If the Jackalope can stay right where they are, at 80 points, they can rest easy. Not only for the reasons I mentioned above, but history will be on their side. Only one team has ever reached that plateau and not won the title: the 1998 Kings. And that was an expansion season, so there were several really awful teams claiming very few of the available points. Interestingly enough, the Jackalope were one of the expansion teams that year, but they finished a very respectable 6th. 13 years later, they are on the verge of their first DTBL Championship.
Here is my review of the trades involving one or more DTBL players which were made in the weeks/days leading up to today’s MLB trade deadline. Since I’m not too knowledgeable about prospects, my take will focus mostly on the DTBL players and the impact these guys will have on their new teams as well as the DTBL implications.
July 12 – Brewers/Mets
Brewers get: RP Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners)
Mets get: 2 PTBNL
MLB impact: The Brewers made a significant improvement to their bullpen without giving up any players of note. When this deal was initially completed, it wasn’t clear what this would mean to their closer situation. However, John Axford has continued to save games for the Brewers, so Rodriguez appears to have been acquired strictly for set-up duties. Meanwhile, the Mets were able to unload a potentially enormous payroll drag had K-Rod finished enough games to kick in his guaranteed player option for 2012. This appears to have been a win-win deal for everyone but Rodriguez.
DTBL impact: This was a costly trade for the Moonshiners, leaving them with just two closers. Fortunately, another rumored trade of Drew Storen to the Twins never happened, or they could have been left with a single closer. They still rank third in saves, but that position could be in jeopardy.
July 26 – Nationals/Reds
Nationals get: OF Johnny Gomes (Cougars)
Reds get: LHP Chris Manno, OF Bill Rhinehart
MLB impact: Not much point in discussing this one too much. This was simply a dump trade by the Reds to make room for a rookie. I don’t really know why the Nats were interested in Gomes though, as they clearly aren’t going anywhere this season.
DTBL impact: Gomes has been on the Cougars bench since May. Since he figures to remain a platoon player in DC, it is unlikely he’ll give the Cougars much of a boost from here on out.
July 27 – Cardinals/Blue Jays/White Sox
Cardinals get: SP Edwin Jackson (free agent), RP Octavio Dotel (free agent), RP Marc Rzepczynski, OF Corey Patterson, 3 PTBNL
Blue Jays get: OF Colby Rasmus (Naturals), 3B Mark Teahen, RP Brian Tallet, RP Trevor Miller, RHP P.J. Walters
White Sox get: RP Jason Frasor, RHP Zach Stewart
MLB impact: This was one of the strangest trades of the week in that it featured two teams in tight division races selling off pieces while a non-contender acquired the biggest impact player. Rasmus had lost favor in St. Louis and had been relegated to the bench. So the Cardinals getting rid of him wasn’t terribly surprising, but they certainly sold low on a talented player. They did acquire some much needed help for their rotation with Jackson though. The 27 year old Jackson has already been traded 7 times in his career! He’s a free agent after this season too, so it is likely he’ll be in yet another uniform next year. The White Sox got a nice reliever in Frasor, but this trade was mostly done to shed some payroll. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are probably the big winners in this trade, getting Rasmus for hardly anything.
DTBL impact: Jackson and Dotel are free agents. The Kings dumped Jackson about a month ago. It is possible some other team will give him a shot now that he is pitching for a NL team that can score some runs. This was a great trade for the Naturals since Rasmus will return to being an everyday player. Also, he could see a big spike in his numbers playing in a good hitters park and as part of a strong lineup.
July 28 – Giants/Mets
Giants get: OF Carlos Beltran (Demigods)
Mets get: RHP Zach Wheeler
MLB impact: Beltran was considered the premier offensive player on the market, and the Giants definitely needed some offensive help. Beltran should give the Giants a significant boost as they attempt to defend their World Series title. He will be a free agent following this season, so it made sense for the Mets to trade him. Apparently, Wheeler is a very highly regarded pitching prospect, so this should be a good trade for both teams.
DTBL impact: Even though this was one of the biggest trades of the week, it will probably have a minimal effect on the Demigods. Beltran is moving from one pitchers park to another and probably a weaker supporting cast. Beltran is also not the fantasy player he used to be since his power numbers are down and he doesn’t steal a lot of bases any more.
MLB impact: This is a huge trade for the Phillies who have had a bit of a black hole in right field this season. It makes their already impressive lineup just a bit stronger, further strengthening their resume as the best team in the National League. The Giants are still a threat due to their pitching, but the Phillies are the team to beat in October. Meanwhile, this was phase one in the Astros fire sale. They acquired some very good prospects, but the near term future is not bright.
DTBL impact: I would call this deal a big win for the Jackalope, who have had almost nothing but positive developments all season. Pence figures to get a lot more RBI opportunities in Philly and is going to a great hitters park. The Jacaklope lead has shrunk a bit in recent days, but this trade should give their offense a boost.
July 30 – Red Sox/Royals
Red Sox get: 2B Mike Aviles (free agent)
Royals get: INF Yamaico Navarro, RHP Kendal Volz
MLB impact: Not much to this deal. Aviles was simply a utility player in Kansas City and that will continue to be the case in Boston.
DTBL impact: It is unlikely the DTBL free agent Aviles will attract much attention following this deal. His playing time will be severely limited.
July 30 – Rangers/Orioles
Rangers get: RP Koji Uehera (Gators)
Orioles get: P Tommy Hunter, 1B/3B Chris Davis
MLB impact: The Rangers picked up a setup man who has some of the best numbers in the league this season. Uehera has incredible 64/8 strike out/walk numbers in 48 IP. They gave up a pair of players who they didn’t have much use for either, so this has to be viewed as a good deal for them. On the Orioles side, not receiving any legitimate prospects was surprising, but they did get two MLB ready players. They didn’t appear to have anywhere to put Davis when the trade was made, but the Lee trade a few hours later opened up 1B for him.
DTBL impact: Minimal. The Gators have used Uehera almost all year, but unless he’s going to start getting save opportunities (very unlikely), this trade doesn’t change his value at all.
July 30 – Indians/Rockies
Indians get: SP Ubaldo Jimenez (Gators)
Rockies get: RHP Alex White, RHP Joseph Gardner, IF/OF Matt McBride, LHP Drew Pomeranz
MLB impact: I don’t like to criticize teams for trying to go for it all when the opportunity presents itself, but I think this may be a bit of a short-sighted trade by the Indians. Yes, they are only a couple games out of first right now, but I believe they have overachieved to this point and are unlikely to win the division even with Jimenez. Meanwhile, they traded away two of their best pitching prospects. Jimenez should benefit by no longer pitching in Coors Field. Also, the NL to AL switch is less significant in this case since he is going to pitch in a very mediocre AL Central. He is not a free agent to-be, so this trade could be an important building block for the Indians, but call me skeptical. Great deal for the Rockies, IMO.
DTBL impact: It will be very interesting to see how Jimenez pitches in Cleveland. He hasn’t been a truly elite pitcher in well over a year now. The Gators need him to return to his early 2010 form in order to help revive their middle-of-the-road pitching staff. It’s all about how well he pitches. This trade probably won’t affect his numbers that much one way or the other.
July 30 – Giants/Indians
Giants get: SS Orlando Cabrera (Moonshiners)
Indians get: OF Thomas Neal
MLB impact: I was a little surprised by this trade on the Indians side. On the heals of their Jimenez deal, they sold off a valuable veteran in Cabrera. Apparently, they are very comfortable with Jason Kipnis as their everyday 2B, even though he just made his MLB debut earlier this week. I think it came down to Cabrera requesting to go somewhere he was wanted. The Giants are a perfect fit. He has a wealth of playoff experience and can help fill a number of roles for the Giants.
DTBL impact: The Moonshiners have been shuffling Cabrera in and out of their lineup. That doesn’t figure to change much, but this is still a good trade for them because Cabrera was seeing his role diminish in Cleveland. He could still provide some value for the Moonshiners before this season ends.
July 30 – Pirates/Orioles
Pirates get: 1B Derrek Lee (Choppers)
Orioles get: 1B Aaron Baker
MLB impact: The Lyle Overbay era as the Pirates starting 1B is mercifully over. The Pirates got so little production from that position, it is a miracle they are still in contention. Lee provides a significant upgrade at that position. I doubt it will be enough for them to hang with the Cardinals and Brewers, but it was the right move to make. Obviously, getting rid of the veteran Lee made sense for the Orioles who are going nowhere fast.
DTBL impact: The Choppers haven’t used Lee since May. I don’t see this trade changing his role too much since he is probably in a worse hitting situation in Pittsburgh. He is a capable replacement though, should they need to call on him.
July 31 – Cardinals/Dodgers
Cardinals get: SS Rafael Furcal (Moonshiners)
Dodgers get: OF Alex Castellanos
MLB impact: Furcal is clearly a big upgrade over Ryan Theriot at shortstop for the Cardinals. This all comes down to him staying healthy. If he is able to stick in the lineup, he will be a nice addition to the highest scoring team in the NL. This is pretty much just a dump for the Dodgers.
DTBL impact: Pretty much the same as the impact for the Cardinals. If Furcal can actually stay healthy, he will be a valuable contributor for the Moonshiners. This trade doesn’t change his value too much, though he will probably have a chance to score more runs with the likes of Pujols, Holliday and Berkman hitting behind him.
July 31 – Braves/Astros
Braves get: OF Michael Bourn (Jackalope)
Astros get: OF Jordan Schafer, RHP Juan Abreu, RHP Paul Clemens, LHP Brett Oberholtzer
MLB impact: Big addition for the Braves. They are trying to piece things together with all their recent injuries. Two obvious needs were center field and leadoff hitter. Bourn fills both holes. I think the Braves could have used another power hitter too, but Bourn will certainly improve the offense. This was part two of the Astros fire sale. Of course it makes sense for them to get as many decent prospects as they can, but boy are they going to struggle to win games the rest of this year and probably next season too.
DTBL impact: Once again, the Jackalope benefit from the Astros upheaval. Bourn was putting up great numbers for a pathetic team. I doubt he will be able to improve upon his current stats too much, but getting out of Houston is definitely a net positive for him and the Jackalope.
July 31 – Rangers/Padres
Rangers get: Mike Adams (Cougars)
Padres get: LHP Robbie Erlin, RHP Joe Wieland
MLB impact: You can pretty much read everything I wrote about the Uehera trade and repeat it here. In fact, Adams’ stats are almost identical to Uehera’s too. They have been two of the best setup men in baseball this year. So Adams is a very nice addition to the Rangers bullpen. Unlike the Uehera deal though, the Rangers actually gave up prospects to get Adams. Therefore, I would say this is a good trade for the Padres too. The Rangers are going to have an awfully strong bullpen.
DTBL impact: Again, a non-closing reliever changing teams doesn’t really change his value much. Neftali Feliz has struggled at times this season, so Adams could be next in line to get saves if that continues. But for now, Adams fantasy value is unchanged by this deal. Perhaps a slight downgrade based on going from a great pitchers park to a hitters paradise. The Cougars will no doubt continue to use him though.
July 31 – Pirates/Padres
Pirates get: OF Ryan Ludwick (Moonshiners)
Padres get: PTBNL
MLB impact: The Pirates need all the help they can get to improve their offense. Although I doubt he will make a major splash, Ludwick should help. Remember, he is only a couple years removed from being a big time power hitter for the Cardinals. Getting out of PETCO could be just what the doctor ordered. On the flip side, the dreadful Padres offense will only get worse without Ludwick. Hard to judge this trade for the Padres though since all they got was a player to be named later.
DTBL impact: This wasn’t one of the big deadline trades, but it has the potential to be one of the biggest in terms of fantasy implications. The Moonshiners haven’t gotten much out of Ludwick since signing him in early June, but he could be a major contributor the rest of the way. This deal is a big win for them.
Just a reminder that the DTBL trade deadline is still a couple weeks away. Trades must be completed by August 15. We haven’t had a trade since the draft, but this could certainly change in the upcoming weeks. I think the reason for the lack of trades is two-fold: a lot of teams have had their hands tied due to a rash of injuries, leaving few healthy bodies to deal. Also, it seems a lot of teams have needs at the same positions (3B and OF in particular). But now that the race is starting to heat up, perhaps some teams will get creative to make a deal.
Jose Bautista highlights a loaded American roster.
Sorry I’m a few days late with this, but I’m finally ready to announce the 2011 DTBL All-Stars. The 18th annual DTBL All-Star Game is tentatively scheduled for next Friday, July 15 at 10 p.m. EDT, 7 p.m. PDT. As mentioned a few days ago, the game will be live video-streamed here.
For the second straight year, the American Division will be managed by Nick while Dave will call the shots for the National Division. Perhaps there will be a little extra drama involved in this matchup as Nick and Dave try to claim final bragging rights from their championship tie a year ago. They broke all ties in voting and chose the 23rd player for their rosters. For the first time in league history, there was a team without any representation on the initial All-Star roster. Therefore, Nick was forced to use his 23rd player slot to make sure the Gators received a bid. He chose third baseman Johnny Peralta, who wasn’t even on the All-Star ballot (also a first). Peralta had fewer at bats than Danny Valencia at the time I created the list, which kept him off the ballot. Dave was able to use his 23rd slot with a more conventional pick, David Ortiz.
The American Division appears to have the stronger roster, which is not surprising considering they hold four of the top five spots in the standings. Their rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren is about as good as you can get (all but Haren were Jackalope a year ago). Meanwhile, the National team is loaded with Kings. 10 of the 23 players are from the Kings roster, which isn’t terribly surprising since they are the division’s lone contender so far this year.
One of the big stories of the 2011 season has been the rash of injuries to corner infielders, particular for the top contending teams. Perhaps the biggest blow came last week when the Jackalope lost their All-World first baseman Albert Pujols to a fractured forearm. This injury will probably put him on the shelf until sometime in August. In the mean time, the Jackalope’s strong hold on first place will be put to the test.
The Jackalope currently lead the league by a comfortable 13 points. They have perfectly positioned themselves to be able to survive injuries, even this one to their most valuable player. In years past, the Jackalope almost solely relied on Pujols to carry their offense. But that has not been the case this season. They have accumulated a very solid 37 batting points despite Pujols not quite putting up his usual MVP-worthy numbers. Of course, losing him for a couple months weakens their offense, but I believe they are still in great shape.
The off-season focus on rebuilding the offense may really pay off now. With Ryan Howard and Mike Stanton on board, the Jackalope do have some other guys to turn to for some power. Those two players were the direct result of a couple bold trades which sent elite starting pitchers elsewhere. The Jackalope pitching hasn’t missed a beat though as they are currently first or second in every pitching category.
The other thing the Jackalope have going for them is that they aren’t the only contending team fighting significant injury issues. The second place Kings learned yesterday that first baseman Justin Morneau needs neck surgery, and he too will likely be out until August. They also lost a pair of starting pitchers (Tommy Hanson and Clay Buchholz) to the DL last week, although neither are expected to miss much time. The Kings have been the hottest team in the league over the past month, despite a complete lack of production from the usual power position of first base. Morneau and Adam LaRoche were supposed to anchor that position, but both were ineffective and now injured. LaRoche is out for the year and has been released. On the other side of the infield, the Kings have had a pair of third basemen spend significant time on the disabled list. Ryan Zimmerman is back, but David Freese remains out.
Third base has been an especially troubling position for the third place team, the Moonshiners. Almost every week, the Moonshiners have had to call on someone new to fill the hot corner position. Losing David Wright to an injury has been very costly as his replacements have been completely ineffective. Next in line are the Naturals, who are also missing their top third baseman, first round pick Pedro Alvarez. Like the Moonshiners, the Naturals have had a hard time trying to find a worthy player to fill that spot. With all these injuries to corner infielders, there is basically nothing left to choose from in the free agent market.
So while the Pujols injury is very significant, the Jackalope have a great chance of holding their lead since their closest competitors have equal or greater injury problems of their own. I didn’t even get to the teams lower in the standings who have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It has been a war of attrition so far this year, and the Jackalope are winning that battle.
We’re about two and a half weeks into the 2011 baseball season, but in many ways, things look very much like 2010. The Naturals are once again tied for first place, although not with the Darkhorses who are off to a slow start, but rather the rejuvenated Moonshiners. Last year, pitching dominated like it hadn’t since the pre-steroid era. That trend has continued early this season. And finally, Manny Ramirez continues to be in the news for all the wrong reasons.
Let’s start with Manny. His sudden retirement has probably been the biggest story of the early season. Facing another performance enhancing drug suspension, he elected to retire instead. The Tampa Bay Rays signed him this off-season in hopes of riding one last surge from one of the best hitters of the last two decades. Instead, Ramirez recorded only one hit in 17 at bats prior to his sudden retirement. Similarly, the Gators felt he had a little left in the tank as they decided to protect him this past winter. This past week, the Gators released the best player in franchise history, ending the longest tenure of a DTBL player and team in league history.
The Gators drafted Ramirez in the 8th round of the 1995 draft, possibly the biggest DTBL draft steal ever. He helped lead the Gators to a championship in his DTBL rookie season and then again in 1998. His name litters the league record books. He is the all-time RBI leader with 1746. He ranks third in career home runs (528) and runs scored (1467). His career batting average of .314 just misses the top ten. He also holds the league’s single season RBI record with an incredible 165 in 1999. Ramirez hit 30+ home runs with 100+ RBIs in nine straight seasons from 1998 through 2006. He even had four seasons with a batting average over .330. An amazing hitter, but unfortunately, all of these numbers will be considered tarnished by three separate PED related suspensions and/or positive tests.
With the Gators release of Ramirez, this leaves another Gator, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez (Kings) as the longest tenured players with a single DTBL team. Both were drafted by their respective teams in 1997. They are the only two players who have been on the same team since before the turn of the century. Interestingly, last year’s Gators squad had four such players on their roster: Ramirez, Jeter, Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez. Although Martinez did not make an appearance for the Gators (or any MLB team) during the season.
In other news, the Moonshiners have been in first place for a good portion of the season so far. Their huge draft day trade with the Jackalope has paid early dividends as Jered Weaver has already won four games and leads the league in strikeouts too. The only other pitcher with four wins is his Moonshiners and Angels teammate Dan Haren, who leads the DTBL in ERA and WHIP. So Moonshiners hurlers lead every pitching category except saves. The Naturals are keeping pace as well and currently find themselves exactly where they finished 2010: tied for first place. The Naturals have been led by Troy Tulowitzki and his seven home runs. I don’t have the full statistics in front of me, but Tulo’s numbers since late August of last season have been absolutely ridiculous.
In the first week of the season, there were rumors of changes to the stitching and/or other physical attributes of the baseball due to an early surge of home runs and scoring in general. Those rumors have been put to rest since then as pitchers have continued to dominate. Six of the ten DTBL teams have ERA’s below 3.40, which is a very respectable mark. It is too early to make any comparisons to totals from previous seasons, but I think it is fair to say that the juiced ball talk during the first few days of the season was probably a bit premature.
There are a couple league records that are likely to fall this season. I should have mentioned these before the season started, but better late than never. First, Choppers relief pitcher Mariano Rivera is on the verge of becoming the league’s all-time save leader. He needs just three more to tie Trevor Hoffman with 560. He already leads the league this season with seven saves. The long-time Cougar has been traded twice the past two years. Next, Alex Rodriguez has a chance to break the DTBL career record in both home runs and RBIs. He sits 14 home runs behind Barry Bonds and with Manny Ramirez’s retirement, ARod needs 56 more RBIs to catch Manny. I completely neglected to mention another career record which was broken last season. Juan Pierre passed Kenny Lofton on that list during the 2010 season. Now if only he could catch fly balls in the 9th inning…
First of all, the main purpose of this post is to verify that the new RSS feed application I just installed on Facebook is working. If it is, this post should appear in the newly created DTBL group on Facebook.
But while I’m at it, I might as well share the latest DTBL News. Last night, Mike and I did the coin toss to break the tie between the Naturals and Darkhorses for draft position. As you may recall, not only did the two teams tie for the league championship, but the first tie-breaker criteria also failed to break the tie. So it came down to a coin toss. I wanted to make sure I had another unbiased league member present when I did it, so Mike filled that role last night. The result was that the Naturals will have the ninth pick in each round of the draft, while the Darkhorses will pick tenth for the fourth straight year.
I’ve been doing some work on the new web site lately. One of the main goals of this project is to make our league more interactive. Part of the plan is to tie our league into popular social networking sites. This is why I created the Facebook group last week. My hope is to get new DTBL blog entries to show up in your Facebook feeds, so you won’t even have to go to the league web site to see the latest news. Similarly, I have decided to create a Twitter account. This account will be used exclusively to post DTBL and baseball related information. If you are a Twitter user and want to start following me, my account name is @DTBL_Kevin, http://twitter.com/DTBL_Kevin. You don’t need to sign up for Twitter to get the latest updates though. I intend to set up a live feed on the new web site which will not only display my tweets, but those of some baseball media personalities as well.
Although the full new web site probably won’t be finished for a few months, I hope to give you some previews soon. Stay tuned!
