Gators outfielder Nelson Cruz
For the third consecutive year, the Mavericks will have multiple first round picks in the DTBL Draft. And for the second year in a row, they possess two of the first three picks. The Mavericks made a pair of trades this week, continuing their youth movement. In the first, they actually traded away a pick, sending their third round selection to the Naturals in exchange for second baseman Rickie Weeks. They followed that up by acquiring the second and twelfth overall picks in the upcoming draft from the Gators for outfielder Nelson Cruz and third baseman Mark Reynolds.
Assuming they stand pat, when the first round finishes next week, the Mavericks will have made seven first round selections in the three most recent drafts. The first two years have seen mixed results from this strategy, but it is way too early to write it off as a failure. With an opportunity to pick two of the top three players available this year, one would think they have a great opportunity to find a superstar in the making this time around. But of course, there is also an inherent risk in betting on young players.
When I first saw the details of the Mavericks/Gators trade, I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks. Acquiring two of the first twelve picks in a draft is a pretty solid return, and giving up early picks can be a dangerous strategy for a rebuilding team. However, I have come around on this after taking a closer look. A very solid argument could be made that Nelson Cruz is a better player than anyone available in this year’s draft. In fact, most fantasy player rankings I have seen have Cruz listed ahead of everyone who will be in the draft pool. He instantly becomes the Gators best offensive player, and along with Reynolds, should immediately improve what was possibly the worst offensive team in league history last season. The ’11 Gators didn’t have a single player drive in over 85 runs and only Dan Uggla hit more than 25 home runs. Cruz and Reynolds surpassed those numbers in both categories. The Gators couldn’t afford to miss on improving their offense and these two players are much safer bets than anyone they could have drafted. Plus, the Gators have had a string of first round picks that haven’t exactly panned out, so maybe it is just as well not to have to worry about a continuation of that trend this year.
It wouldn’t make much sense for me to predict who the Mavericks will take with all of their early picks, but I think it is safe to assume they will go with more youngsters. I also feel confident in predicting they will not select a catcher with a top three pick for the third consecutive season. The re-acquisition of Weeks was an interesting move as well. When healthy, he is one of the most productive middle infielders, which was a major area of weakness for the Mavericks last year. Weeks was a first round pick by the Mavericks back in 2006 and spent three years with the club before he was released in ’08. His best season came with the Naturals in 2010 when he hit 29 home runs and drove in 83, obliterating his previous career highs. Last season was cut short due to an injury, but he still hit 19 home runs. The Mavericks will probably be the hardest team to predict for the upcoming season. They have the potential to be the league’s most improved team. They have an interesting situation with two relief pitchers already on the roster who are expected to be starters (Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard), so they could potentially go with a seven man rotation. However, if that doesn’t pan out and the early draft picks don’t work out either, it could be another long year. I don’t think any other team has a wider gap between their potential ceiling and floor.
As for the Naturals, Weeks was expendable because they have two other quality middle infielders in Troy Tulowitzki and Asdrubal Cabrera. They will have plenty of opportunities to address second base in the draft. Generally speaking, they don’t have too many holes to fill, so the extra draft pick can be used to build depth at pretty much any position they would like. The Naturals should be a title contender for the fourth straight year.
My goal is to have the draft pool posted in the next couple days. I’m looking at one week from tonight, Thursday March 8, as the potential start date of the 2012 DTBL Draft. It’s hard to believe we have reached another milestone. This will be the 20th DTBL Draft.