DTBL News

Category: Jackalope

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part II


    Part two of the 2017 DTBL season preview will examine three teams who are projected to finish near the middle of the standings.  This would be a major change from last year for all three squads.  Two of them would view this as a positive move in the right direction while the other would consider this to be a major disappointment after nearly winning the championship a year ago.  I should mention that the projected league standings shows very little separation among these three teams in particular, but really the entire projected top seven finishers.  You can even throw in the Moonshiners and have eight teams who are prognosticated to be within 20 points of first place.  So it wouldn’t take a whole lot of weird stuff to happen for any of these teams to win the league.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth through seventh place.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
    • Home Runs – 5th (1st-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
    • Wins – 7th (2nd)
    • Saves – 9th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 5th (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (4th)
    • Total Points – 7th (2nd)

    Summary:

    In the Darkhorses preview, I said that I thought their projected fall from 5th to 9th was the biggest surprise we’d see.  Well, here we have the Demigods falling even one spot further.  But this one is less surprising, in my opinion.  You simply can’t replace one of the best pitchers in the game, which is the obstacle the Demigods must overcome after the passing of Jose Fernandez.  The weakened pitching prognostication makes sense.  Attempting to replace Fernandez will be Aaron Nola and Matt Shoemaker.  Nice pitchers, but not the same.  Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto will remain the true aces of the staff.  This is still an above average rotation.  However, it doesn’t appear to be elite.  The bullpen remains one of the league’s worst with a pair of closers who don’t have great job security (Tony Watson and Jeanmar Gomez).  What is more troubling about these projections is the offensive drop-off.  But the Demigods remain a balanced hitting team with solid players in every slot.  Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor are the stars.  A key newcomer to keep an eye on is Greg Bird.  If he continues his hot spring training into the regular season, there is no reason to think the Demigods couldn’t be near the top of the league in the power categories again this year.  I’m sure the Demigods have much higher expectations for this season than this.  There are plenty of reasons to believe they can make a run at that elusive first championship again this year.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (9th)
    • Wins – 6th (7th)
    • Saves – 7th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 6th (10th)

    Summary:

    Here we have the most positively surprising projection.  The numbers show potential for major improvement from the Cougars, who finished in last place in 2016.  The improvement is especially impressive on the pitching side.  Madison Bumgarner leads the way, of course, but a major bounce-back season from Chris Archer seems probable.  Three interesting newcomers join the rotation too:  the ageless Rich Hill, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy the past couple years, Jameson Taillon and Jerad Eickhoff.  This rotation has a little bit of everything.  The bullpen is respectable as well, with Cody Allen, Alex Colome and David Robertson.  In order to see significant improvement from the Cougars this year, the bats will need to take a huge step forward.  First overall draft pick Trevor Story should help in that regard.  He and Kris Bryant form quite a duo on the left side of the Cougars infield.  Underrated Charlie Blackmon leads the outfield.  I think it is safe to project the Cougars to soar past their league worst home run total from last season.  While it has been painful for the Cougars finishing near the bottom of the standings the past three years, it has allowed them to restock the lineup with high draft picks (Bryant, Story and Jose Abreu). Perhaps this is the year those assets start paying off.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (8th)
    • Wins – 3rd (9th)
    • Saves – 6th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 5th (9th)

    Summary:

    Here we have another projection that shows a massive improvement over last season.  But unlike the Cougars, this one isn’t particularly surprising.  Last season was essentially a write-off for the Jackalope.  The core of the team that won the championship two seasons ago remains, particularly on the batting side where they are still one of the best hitting teams in the league, despite what happened a year ago.  Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Donaldson are still two of the best players in the game.  Goldschmidt had the quietest 20/30 season I think I’ve ever seen.  32 steals out of a first baseman is insane.  New to the lineup is Gary Sanchez, who should give the Jackalope a huge edge over most teams at the catching position.  Perhaps the most important player for this team this year will be Giancarlo Stanton.  If he has a healthy, productive season, the Jackalope will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  The pitching staff does not appear to be top notch, however.  Jake Arrieta returned to being somewhat human a year ago, but still an elite pitcher.  Gerrit Cole figures to be healthier and more productive in ’17.  Tanner Roark and A.J. Happ give the Jackalope two of the more underrated pitchers in the game.  The bullpen features just two closers, but they are among the best in the league:  Wade Davis and Mark Melancon.  An improvement over last season seems like a forgone conclusion for the Jackalope.  But will they be a championship contender?  The talent is there.

  • Story-book Beginning


    Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

    The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

    The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

    On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

    Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

    The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

    The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

    While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

    The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

    The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

    The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

    There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

    The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

    Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

    In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.

  • Reviewing the Rest


    For the six teams who were not in the running for the DTBL Championship in the final weeks of the season, 2016 was mostly a disappointment. However, a few of these teams did show promise and had their moments when they too appeared to be among the better teams in the league. Unlike last year though, there were some teams that finished so far behind the leaders that they appear to have a huge rebuilding task ahead of them. Here is a brief summary of the 2016 seasons for the six non-contenders.

    A fifth place finish for the Darkhorses is probably a little disappointing considering they finished in third a year ago and have one of the most exciting young corps of players in the league. But they actually came closer to winning it all this year than last. They had the best offense in the league, leading the way with 40.5 batting points. Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Murphy and Xander Bogaerts were the top offensive stars, but many others emerged this season like George Springer, Christian Yelich and Justin Turner. Unfortunately for them, their pitching kept them from being a true title contender. Rick Porcello became a surprise staff ace and Carlos Martinez rewarded them for their faith in making him a first round draft pick. But they didn’t have a lot of pitching depth. If they can shore up this staff with one or two more solid hurlers, they will be a scary team next year.

    For much of the year, this looked like it was going to be one of the worst seasons in Naturals franchise history. They were toiling near the bottom of the standings as late into the season as early September. But a late rally pushed them up to a sixth place finish, the same spot they settled for a year ago. Part of the reason for that surge was a resurgence of two of their veteran stars: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. Another was the incredible performance by rookie Trea Turner, who nearly cracked the PAR leaderboard despite spending half the year in the minors. But the star of the team from start to finish was Nolan Arenado who led the league in RBI and was near the top in home runs and runs as well. Despite a pedestrian season overall, the Naturals may come away as the big winners from the 2016 Draft. In addition to Turner, who was an enormous steal in the eighth round, they also solidified their pitching staff for years to come with their first round selection of Noah Syndergaard. He was easily their best pitcher this season. The Naturals remain one of the league’s most talented teams, even if the results haven’t been there the past two years.

    Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Moonshiners finished in seventh place. Yes, for the fourth consecutive year, they finished the season in the seven hole. It is obviously not the place they want to be. This year, it was a very weak offense that kept them from moving on up. They finished with just seven batting points and were dead last in every offensive category except for home runs. Really, their entire offense was carried by their two star second basemen, Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler. Other than that, not much to write home about. Losing Prince Fielder to an early retirement was especially disappointing. There is a lot of work that needs to be done to their lineup. Things weren’t as bad for the pitching staff, although there were some disappointments there too. On the positive side, for the second straight year, the Moonshiners were the proud owners of the Cy Young candidate who came out of nowhere. This year, it was Kyle Hendricks who led the league in ERA and WHIP. Last year, it was Dallas Keuchel. However, Hendricks was pretty much the lone bright spot in the rotation. Their dynamic trio from a year ago, Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, all had disappointing seasons this time around.

    Through the first couple months of the season, one of the best stories in the league was the return to power of the Gators, a franchise that hasn’t finished in the top half of the standings since 2008 and hasn’t finished above the bottom three spots since 2010. Unfortunately for them, their season unravelled in the second half and that streak of bottom three finishes continued with another eighth place finish. They had the opposite problem as the Moonshiners. They had a decent enough offense, but easily the league’s worst pitching. The offense was carried by two unexpected sources: breakout star and former first round pick Wil Myers and previously enigmatic shortstop Jean Segura. Segura was one of four players to put up a 20/30 HR/SB season. You may be familiar with the other three: Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve. The Gators easily led the league in stolen bases thanks to Segura, Myers, Starling Marte and Dee Gordon. The pitching staff was a mess, with two notable exceptions: Jose Quintana and Zach Britton. Britton accumulated 47 saves with an absurdly low 0.54 ERA. One of these years, the Gators are going to put it all together. But they are definitely going to need to improve the pitching staff to get to that point.

    We nearly had the preposterous situation of one team going from worst to first and another doing the exact opposite this year. However, the defending champion Jackalope were just barely able to avoid finishing dead last while settling for ninth place. Simply put, this season was a write-off for the Jackalope. After everything went their way a year ago, very little went right in 2016. And not to make excuses, but Jay had a pretty good one. He spent most of the summer preparing for a deployment and simply didn’t have time to manage his roster. Had his team been more competitive, we probably would have found a temporary replacement. But anyway, this is still a team loaded with talent. Josh Donaldson had another elite season. Paul Goldschmidt had one of the quietest 24 home run, 32 stolen base years a player has ever had. They did not get even close to the same kind of production out of their starting rotation as they did in ’15. Jake Arrieta was good, but definitely not the same. Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray had injury riddled years. And overall, the roster just wasn’t as deep as it was in their championship campaign. Next year will almost certainly be better for this squad.

    Before the season, I tabbed the Cougars as the most improved team in the league. Well, that didn’t really pan out. For the second time in three years, the Cougars finished in last place. They were among the bottom teams in the league in both batting and pitching points, so there weren’t a ton of bright spots. But there was one: second overall draft pick Kris Bryant, who already appears to be one of the best players in the league. He slugged 39 homers with 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. Charlie Blackmon also quietly emerged as one of the top players in the league. Most of their other key players had disappointing seasons, however. The pitching staff was surprisingly ineffective. Madison Bumgarner was his usual dominant self. But other than him, there weren’t many good performances to point to from this staff. To end on a positive note, this season was proof that a last place finish is hardly a disqualifier for contending the following season. So there is hope for 2017 for the Cougars.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part IV


    The way the Jackalope dominated the DTBL in 2015, it is no surprise they are the favorites to win the league again this year.  But a repeat of their 19 point victory seems extremely unlikely.  The projections certainly don’t point to that.  Yes, the Jackalope are projected to win the league again, but with 10 fewer points and just a 2 1/2 point cushion over the second place squad.  That team would be the Thunder Choppers, who have generally not been highly regarded in these pre-season projections.  But after a couple straight fourth place finishes, they are a team that definitely looks ready to contend.  Although these two teams are expected to finish fairly close to each other, they are built much differently.  The Jackalope are very strong across the board, while the Choppers have an elite pitching staff with an average offense.  While other teams will surely be in the discussion this season, it will be very interesting to see if these two are able to live up to expectations.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the 2016 standings.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd-T (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins – 1st (7th)
    • Saves – 1st (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Points – 2nd (4th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers finished a very respectable fourth place last year, but were not serious title contenders.  It was their third straight season in the top four, but in those years they never finished closer than nine points behind the champion.  So while their continued success is a positive, they certainly would like to be in the discussion for a league championship come September and hope to end their 17 year title drought.  For all the talk about the Mavericks pitching staff, it is the Choppers who actually top the pitching point projections.  They are expected to finish first or second in all five pitching categories.  And this is almost all on the shoulders of returning players.  They wound up keeping six starting pitchers and did not draft a single pitcher who is on their Opening Day roster.  That allowed them to solely focus on improving an offense that was one of the worst in the league last year.  Kyle Schwarber is the big name among the newcomers, but they brought in a bunch of solid veteran hitters as well.  For the offense to be above average, Schwarber and his Cubs teammate Anthony Rizzo will need to have great seasons.  But they probably don’t need to be much better than average with the sticks because their pitching staff is loaded.  Chris Sale is the number one guy, but they have five other very good starters:  Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Danny Salazar, Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka.  That is impressive depth.  The bullpen is strong as well, although I think the 2nd place projection in saves is slightly optimistic.  Craig Kimbrel is clearly their top bullpen guy.  This should be a very good year for the Choppers.  They may not be able to win it all, but they do appear to be the best bet to unseat the Jackalope.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 2nd (1st)
    • Saves – 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    It woudn’t be much fun if the Jackalope were expected to blow away the rest of the league again this year, so nice to see just a 2 1/2 point margin.  But make no mistake, they are clearly the favorites to win the DTBL again this year.  And that smaller gap between them and the rest of the league is not a sign of this being a weaker Jackalope squad.  It is just hard to have everything go your way like it did for this team a year ago.  They are still projected to be a top three hitting and pitching team.  No other team can legitimately claim to be one of the league’s best on both sides.  It isn’t just the returning players who give the Jackalope such high hopes.  They were able to reinforce their squad with a couple interesting additions in the draft:  third baseman Maikel Franco and pitcher Raisel Iglesias.  But the most important players are the same guys who carried them a year ago.  Reigning league MVP Josh Donaldson left today’s game early, but hopefully it wasn’t anything serious.  Paul Goldschmidt also happens to be one of the best players in baseball.  And don’t forget that they didn’t even get full years out of top slugger Giancarlo Stanton and solid hitter Anthony Rendon.  So there are some reasons to believe they could be even better in 2016.  The pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.  Jake Arrieta was the steal of the draft a year ago.  Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole join him to make up the best non-Mavericks top three in the league.  There is very little drop-off in the bullpen either.  Wade Davis moves into a full time closer role and Mark Melancon led the league in saves last season.  The Jackalope will attempt to become the first team to successfully defend their title since the Darkhorses finished up their four-peat in 2010.  It would be pretty shocking if they aren’t in the hunt to do just that.

    Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, there is a pretty healthy gap between the two teams at each end of the standings and the other six in the middle. The Jackalope and Choppers appear to be the teams to beat with the Demigods clearly being the third choice. Meanwhile, the Gators and Moonshiners are going to need to significantly outperform these numbers in order to sniff the top of the standings. But for the most part, anything could happen. Should be another fun season. Good luck to all!

  • Elite Rookie Class Arrives


    One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

    Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

    The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

    Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

    For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

    With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

    We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

    The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

    We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!

  • 2015 PAR Update


    With the great East Coast snowstorm of 2016 having rolled through this past weekend, I found myself with some unexpected free time.  I took some of that time to complete a task that I should have done months ago.  I finally updated the 2015 PAR numbers to be derived from stats including those accumulated during the 2015 season.  As a quick reminder, PAR is built upon five years worth of league-wide data.  During the season, that data comes from the five previously completed seasons.  However, when a season ends, I adjust the numbers to use the recently completed season in place of the numbers from five years prior.  So up until now, the ’15 PAR totals were based on data from 2010-2014.  I have now replaced 2010 with 2015 stats.  Normally, this post-season adjustment has minimal impact on the numbers and certainly wouldn’t be worth its own blog post.  However, there were some interesting outcomes this time around, so I’m going to take this opportunity to chronicle them.

    First, this update caused a slight uptick in cumulative offensive PAR and a similar downswing for pitchers.  Across the league, these adjustments caused the league Batting PAR to increase to 201, up approximately 12 points, while pitchers dropped 11 points to 264.  In a perfect world, both totals would be right around 225, which is the number of points above last place that can be gained in all of the batting and pitching categories.  But as we’ve seen in almost all of the PAR numbers I’ve calculated to date, batters have fallen short of this total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  This is because there has been a consistent decline in offensive numbers over the time period I have examined, with pitchers going the opposite direction.  But we’re finally getting closer to the ideal league totals since the five year window is now almost exclusively seasons in which pitchers dominated.  The reason for the adjusted increase in offense and decline in pitching is because 2015 replaced a 2010 season that was far better for pitchers, meaning the hurdle for earning points above replacement for hitters has gone down while pitchers have a higher obstacle to exceed.

    On an individual player basis, most hitters saw their PAR increase slightly while pitchers dropped a bit.  This was pretty consistent across the board, but a few noticeable changes are worth mentioning.  First, the MVP race became extremely interesting in part because Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt had nearly identical PAR totals for the Jackalope.  Prior to the update, both players had matching 8.45 PAR, with an ever so slight edge to Goldschmidt when expanding it to the third decimal place.  But now, Donaldson has passed Goldschmidt as the Batting PAR champion, 9.35 to 9.29.  The reason why Donaldson received more of a boost is because stolen bases became a little less valuable in the revised formula, which dinged Goldschmidt a bit.  Of course, league members had already deemed Donaldson more valuable anyway, having named him the league’s MVP this season.  There were a few place swaps down the Batting PAR leaderboard as well, but the top two switch was the most noteworthy.

    On the pitching side, the changes were more consistent.  All of the top pitchers saw their numbers go down by just about the same amount, so there were no changes to the Pitching PAR top 10.  But there was an interesting change when looking at the historical numbers.  Prior to this update, Jake Arrieta’s 16.32 PAR was the highest single season mark in recorded PAR history (2010 to present), just barely edging Justin Verlander’s 16.31 in 2011.  However, Arrieta’s official PAR for 2015 has now dropped to 15.64, which drops him behind Verlander and 2014 Clayton Kershaw.  It is difficult to compare players from different seasons, but PAR is one tool to do so.  Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in league history, no matter how you look at it though.  Kershaw and Zack Greinke remain solidly in the top 10 single season Pitching PAR (since ’10) with their ’15 seasons as well.

    Now I will start working on calculating PAR numbers for more past seasons.  2009 will be up next, with a goal of completing every year since 2005 before the start of the upcoming season.  Stay tuned for that.

  • Donaldson Completes Jackalope Sweep


    It seems like 85% of the content I have written for this site this year has focused on the Jackalope. They were the talk of the league in March with their blockbuster trades. Then came a thoroughly dominating championship season in which they picked up individual player honors in almost every month. And now in awards season, they have already claimed both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, thanks to Jake Arrieta. Which brings us to the Most Valuable Player award, an honor which the Jackalope figured to have not one, but two top candidates. Sure enough, those two players finished first and second in the vote. The award goes to one of the players they acquired in that pre-season shake-up. Josh Donaldson is the 2015 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Donaldson and his Jackalope teammate Paul Goldschmidt finished in a virtual tie atop the Batting PAR leaderboard. So it comes as no surprise that those two led the way in the MVP vote as well. The third baseman, Donaldson, had the edge in home runs, RBI and runs while Goldschmidt bested him in average and stolen bases. Donaldson led the league with 122 runs, came in second in RBI with 123 and finished fifth in home runs with 41. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top five of those three power categories. His .297 average wasn’t too shabby either.

    A breakout star last year in his DTBL rookie campaign, Donaldson proved that ’14 wasn’t a fluke. In fact, he significantly improved upon all of his numbers except stolen bases. The Moonshiners drafted him in the first round a year ago and he rewarded them with an All-Star season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year vote. He was the key piece moving to the Jackalope in a deal that sent elite pitcher Felix Hernandez to the Moonshiners. The full deal was Donaldson and a fourth round pick for Hernandez and Ian Kennedy. Despite Hernandez having another terrific season, the first year edge clearly goes to the Jackalope in that swap. Donaldson helped lead the league’s best offense to an easy league championship. He was a key part in the team finishing in the top four of every offensive category.

    Goldschmidt had a very strong claim for this award as well, posting great numbers across the board (.321, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 103 R, 21 SB). As mentioned, the two Jackalope stars had virtually identical PAR numbers as well. In the end, it was probably Donaldson’s power edge that garnered him this award. The vote was relatively close, but Donaldson received a majority of the first place votes. He got six first place tallies, two seconds, a third and a fourth for 82 points. Goldschmidt had a pair of first place votes and four each for second and third. He came in second place with 68 points. NL MVP Bryce Harper also received strong consideration. The Darkhorses outfielder received two first place votes as well, but didn’t fair quite as well down ballot, and was left off one ballot completely. He finished with 55 points. Next, Nolan Arenado made sure two of the top four spots would go to third baseman. The Naturals’ slugger came in fourth with 38 points. Those four were head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. The fifth place spot went to a guy who actually didn’t finish higher than fifth on any ballot, but got five votes in that #5 spot. That player is the defending MVP, Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout. Trout has now finished in the top five of the MVP vote in all four of his DTBL seasons.

    Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

    With that, the Jackalope have swept all three of the major post-season awards. I don’t have complete records of the award winners from the league’s first decade to easily reference, but I believe this is the first time a team has won all three awards in the same season. Fitting, considering the 2015 Jackalope were unquestionably one of the best teams in league history.

    So that’s it for a while. I have several plans for the winter, but I’ll keep them to myself for now so that I don’t set any expectations that I will surely fail to live up to. One certainty is that I will continue to retroactively calculate PAR numbers for past seasons. Hopefully, I’ll have numbers going back to at least a decade ago before next season begins.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  • Arrieta Doubles Up With Cy


    2015 featured three of the greatest seasons by pitchers in league history.  Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw each would have won the Cy Young award with their ’15 numbers almost any other year.  But only one could win the award this year.  In the end, it was the Jackalope breakout star who captured the award to go along with his Rookie of the Year honor, which was announced last night.  Jake Arrieta is the 2015 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

    There isn’t much left to say that I didn’t already cover last night, so let’s recap some of the highlights.  Arrieta led the league in wins with 22, which was three more than any other pitcher.  His minuscule 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP were both second in the league behind Greinke.  He led the league in pitching PAR (16.32), which currently stands as the highest mark ever recorded (2010-present).  As shocking as all of those numbers are, he was not a likely winner of this award as recently as mid-season.  But his second half was simply as good as it gets.  The highlight of that incredible stretch was the no-hitter he threw against the Dodgers in late August.  He won the Pitcher of the Month award in August and nearly did it in September as well.  He earned three Pitcher of the Week honors too.

    I would be remiss if I didn’t give some special mention to the other pair of pitchers who would have won this award almost any other season.  Moonshiners righty Zack Greinke and Mavericks lefty Clayton Kershaw had as strong of seasons on the mound as any pair of MLB teammates you’ll ever see.  The Dodgers duo were huge assets to their DTBL teams as well, but in the end it was the guy on the championship squad who got the award.  Greinke’s 1.66 ERA and 0.844 WHIP both rank third on the all-time DTBL single season lists.  Greg Maddux is the only pitcher who has ever posted a better ERA in a season (1994 and 1995).  Meanwhile, Kershaw blew away the field in strikeouts with 301.  He is the first pitcher to reach the 300 mark since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling both did it 13 years ago.  The two time defending Cy Young winner, Kershaw was unable to make it three in a row, but has now finished in the top three of the vote an incredible five years in a row.  Greinke won the award back in 2009, but this is the first time he even received votes since.  Obviously, this is the first Cy Young for the DTBL rookie Arrieta.

    As expected, this was a very tight vote.  The three aforementioned pitchers received all of the first, second and third place votes.  Arrieta garnered five first place votes on his way to 81 points.  Greinke was just a little shy of that, finishing with 75 points and three first place tallies.  Finally, Kershaw got a pair of first place votes as well and accumulated 64 points.  Needless to say, there was quite a gap after those three.  The Kings’ Max Scherzer looked like a leading candidate for this award in the first half of the season, but an uneven second half dropped him to fourth place with 13 points.  Finally, Moonshiners lefty Dallas Keuchel, who came in second to Arrieta in the Rookie of the Year vote, finished fifth for Cy Young.  Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner and David Price had pretty amazing seasons in their own rights, but didn’t come close to making a major play at this award.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    So the Year of the Jackalope continues with two major awards added to the trophy case.  Will they sweep all three?  The MVP race figures to be extremely tight too, so you’ll have to wait and see.  I probably won’t have time to announce that winner until either Sunday or Monday night, so check back next week.

  • Arrieta Named Top Rookie


    The Jackalope made several huge splashes in March, shaking up their roster with some blockbuster trades. But the transaction they made which most directly translated to them cruising to the DTBL title was selecting Jake Arrieta with the sixth pick in the draft. It was a very strong rookie crop, including the five players picked before Arrieta, but none of them came close to matching his DTBL debut. In an unanimous decision, Jake Arrieta is the 2015 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    Forget about rookies, Arrieta had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in league history. He led the league in wins with 22, but it is was his eye-popping 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP that put him in very select company. Shockingly, he did not lead the league in either of those categories (second behind Zack Greinke in both), yet he now ranks fifth all-time in single season marks in those categories. His 16.32 PAR is the best ever among seasons I have calculated to date (2010 to present, although I should mention that I will be adjusting the PAR numbers to include league wide stats for ’15 in the near future, so he could lose the top spot back to 2011 Verlander). His 236 strikeouts ranked sixth in the league, but like the rest of his numbers, led the way among rookies. He is going to be a strong contender for the Cy Young award as well, though he faces some pretty stiff competition in that race.

    As mentioned, Arrieta was the sixth player taken in the March draft, but the first pitcher. He followed a first baseman and four outfielders, most of whom had very strong DTBL debuts, but not even close to Arrieta’s level. He immediately became the ace of the Jackalope staff which had just traded away their long-time ace Felix Hernandez. Along with newly acquired Gerrit Cole (trade with Mavericks) and second year Jackalope Sonny Gray, they put together a very young set of hurlers at the top of their rotation. The plan worked to perfection as they jumped ten points in the pitching standings on their way to their second DTBL title. Unless the Jackalope decide to mix things up again next spring, Arrieta, Cole and Gray figure to anchor this rotation for quite some time.

    The vote was unanimous. Arrieta received all ten first place votes. But this was not an indication of a weak class, but rather a reflection of just how great Arrieta was. Two other pitchers had seasons that probably would have earned them this award most years. The Moonshiners made the top free agent acquisition in quite some time when they signed Dallas Keuchel in early April. He finished second in the vote with 56 points, receiving six second place votes, and was the only player besides Arrieta to appear on every ballot. Coming in a distant third was another pitcher who had an incredible rookie campaign, the Darkhorses’ Jacob deGrom. He accumulated 33 points despite finishing no higher than third on any ballot. Arrieta, Keuchel and deGrom are about as strong of a rookie trio of pitchers as the league has ever seen. The top offensive rookie was Cougars first baseman Jose Abreu who received a pair of second place votes and 28 total points. Right behind him was his Cougars teammate, outfielder Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon also received two second place votes and a point total of 26. The rest of the rookies were well behind those five, leaving some players who had very strong debuts nowhere near winning the award.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    I plan to announce the winner of the Cy Young award tomorrow night. Will Arrieta win that one as well, or will it go to one of the Dodgers dynamic duo of Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw? Finally, the MVP award likely won’t be announced until early next wee.

  • Year of the Jackalope


    When discussing the greatest teams in DTBL history, a few clubs usually make the short list: 1994 Cougars, 2000 Kings, 2007 or 2008 Darkhorses. What makes those championship squads stick out is the way in which they dominated the competition, winning the league by double digit points in each case. Well, there is a new team to add to the conversation. Prior to this year, the largest margin of victory in league history was 14 points by the ’94 Cougars. In the 10-team era, the record was 13 by the ’00 Kings. In 2015, the Jackalope blew away those marks finishing with 85 points, 19 clear of the next closest team. Jay’s Jackalope are the 2015 Dream Team Baseball League Champions!

    On the last day of April, the Jackalope claimed the top spot in the standings for the first time this year.  They dropped to second a few times in early May.  But then on May 16, they took over first place for good.  Before summer officially began, they had built a double digit lead and were never really challenged again.  The Mavericks made a nice run in the middle of the summer to briefly cut the lead to single digits, however, it was back to a 20+ margin before you knew it.

    It wasn’t just the season-long domination that made the Jackalope the talk of the league the entire year.  It started in March when they made several franchise altering trades to completely revamp their roster.  At the time, those deals appeared to signal a desire to rebuild.  Teams who think they are on the verge of being a title contender don’t usually trade away several of their best players.  But the Jackalope did just that.  Gone were Felix Hernandez, Aroldis Chapman, Albert Pujols and Yasiel Puig.  Other than Puig, those lost pieces were quite productive for their new teams.  But the Jackalope survived just fine without them.  In came Gerrit Cole, Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones and Anthony Rendon.  Even an injury plagued season from Rendon couldn’t turn those deals sour.  Donaldson was arguably the best player in the league.  Cole elevated his game to become one of the best pitchers around.

    In addition to the trades, one other key March move paved the way for what was to come.  In a first round dominated by young sluggers, the Jackalope zigged while those ahead of them zagged and selected the first pitcher of the draft with the sixth overall pick.  That draft pick:  Jake Arrieta.  All Arrieta would go on to do is lead the league in wins (22) and pitching PAR (16.32) while compiling one of the best second halves of any pitcher in league history.

    The pitching staff, led by Arrieta, Cole and Sonny Gray, wound up accumulating 40 pitching points, just three behind the Mavericks who were expected to have a historically strong pitching staff (and more-or-less did).  But the Jackalope were almost as good.  The bullpen was stellar as well, with Mark Melancon leading the league with 51 saves, just four shy of the league’s single-season record.  Wade Davis had as much of a positive impact as any non-full time closer could.

    While their pitching was very good, it was the offense that won the league for the Jackalope.  They led the way with 45 batting points (out of a possible 50).  They finished in the top four of all five offensive categories and were tops in RBI and runs scored.  In addition to having the league’s top finisher in pitching PAR, they also had the top two in batting PAR.  Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt finished essentially tied at the top with 8.45 marks.  That should set up a very interesting MVP vote with those two among the leading candidates.  Donaldson proved his ’14 campaign was no fluke, beating all of his previous year’s hitting stats by wide margins.  He led the league in runs (122), finished second in RBI (123) and fifth in home runs (41).  But Goldschmidt may have had even better numbers across the board, with a .322 average, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 100 R and a sneaky 21 stolen bases.  The last players to match/exceed those numbers in all five categories were Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp in 2011.

    Donaldson and Goldschmidt weren’t the only shining stars for the Jackalope offense.  Giancarlo Stanton also looked like a MVP candidate in the first half.  But a broken wrist wound up costing him the entire second half of the season.  Most teams would not have been able to overcome such a significant injury to a top player.  In fact, the Jackalope suffered a bunch of injuries to key players.  But they had a whole stable of other solid contributors to keep them going strong:  Eric Hosmer, D.J. LeMahieu, Brett Gardner, Adam Jones and a rejuvenated Ryan Braun to name a few.

    This is the second DTBL title for the Jackalope.  The first came back in 2011.  They had been slowly building towards that title, assembling a pitching staff the likes of which the league had not seen before.  I would say this 2015 championship was far more surprising.  Since the ’11 title, they had finished in the middle of the pack a couple times and came in dead last just two years ago.  The only other last to first turnaround that can compare would be the Darkhorses, who made the shocking jump in consecutive years (2006-2007).  The Jackalope join the Choppers, Gators and Mavericks as two time champs, leaving no teams with just a single title.

    There will be time to review what went wrong for the rest of the league another day.  Truthfully, it didn’t matter.  The Jackalope were going to win the league this year regardless.  I’ll start my reviews of the rest of the league next week.  In the meantime, enjoy the start of the MLB post-season.  Congrats to Jay on a well earned title and thanks to everyone else for another fun season.