DTBL News

Category: Jackalope

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part I

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    Welcome to Opening Week! We’re just under 48 hours away from the first pitch of the 2026 MLB regular season. I’m a tad tardy on getting our season preview articles started as I’ve been spending more time than I had hoped cleaning up a few issues with the new site. But hopefully I’ll be able to get through at least half of the team previews before the season officially begins.

    As I believe I suggested I might do during these previews last year, I’ve decided to make a change in the projection system I’m using to compute these projected stats and standings. For years, I’ve been using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which combine Steamer and ZiPS and then adjust for playing time expectations on a per team basis. It’s that last part that was starting to bother me a little bit as I have felt they are far too optimistic in *not* projecting missed time for players who are rarely able to make it through a full season without spending time on the IL. Adjusting the plate appearance or innings pitched numbers really paints a different picture than the source projection systems intended. So I’ve decided to go with a different source which also combines multiple freely available projection systems, but does so in a way that makes more sense to me and tends to have a better predictive track record.

    Staring this year, I am going to use the ATC projection system, created by Ariel Cohen and also available on FanGraphs. ATC utilizes a whole bunch of other freely available projection systems, including Steamer and ZiPS. It weights each of the systems it uses based on their historical strengths and weaknesses in various categories. So essentially it becomes a “best of the best” compilation of all these systems.

    I grabbed the ATC 2026 projections for all players just a few days before our draft started and updated my spreadsheet throughout the draft to leave as little work as possible to be done after the draft completed. So if there was any new information such as injuries that could have popped up these past few weeks, these numbers don’t reflect that. The one exception I made was to completely remove Jurickson Profar from the Darkhorses projections since his full season PED suspension was recently upheld. Interestingly, this very slightly improved the Darkhorses final projections across the batting categories.

    The usual caveats remain. I’m not attempting to make any individual team roster composition guesses, so all 28 players who were on your roster at the conclusion of the draft are fed into this with their full season projections. Then each teams’ totals are scaled to meet a certain plate appearance and innings pitched target. Position slots are not considered at all, so the fact that the Demigods are currently the only team with three catchers on their roster probably does ding their batting numbers relative to other teams even though they likely won’t use more than two catchers at any time this year. So just something to keep in mind.

    Now let’s get to it. As usual, I’m grouping these articles based on teams that are projected to finish near one another in the standings, and am planning on going back to a four part series after doing just three last year. So we’re starting with the two teams that are expected to finish in the bottom two spots in the standings according to these numbers. Notably, last year’s last place finisher is not among them. Also notable that last year’s projected tenth place finisher actually finished five spots higher than that. So keep in mind that the point of this exercise is to peek at each team’s relative strengths and weaknesses more so than trying to predict the actual order of finish.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 7th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (7th-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (7th)
    • Wins – 10th (9th-T)
    • Saves – 10th (8th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
    • Total Points – 10th (8th)

    Summary:

    After a disappointing 8th place finish last year, the Jackalope decided it was time for a reboot and went with an extreme youth movement in this month’s draft. Each of their first six draft picks were used on players who made their MLB debut in 2025. So with such small big league sample sizes also comes volatility in the projections. With little to no track record on these guys, projection systems unsurprisingly temper expectations. Of those first six picks, only the first and second rounders, outfielder Roman Anthony and starting pitcher Chase Burns have positive PAR projections. They are clearly the stars of this group. Anthony joins an outfield that is by far the best position group of this roster. Ronald Acuna Jr, Jackson Chourio, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Harris are All-Star caliber players. And of course they have all-world catcher Cal Raleigh back too. It’s the infield where these numbers point to the Jackalope being well below average. Jeremy Pena and Dansby Swanson do give them a solid pair of shortstops though. To exceed these projections, the Jackalope will need at least one of the three young infielders they took with consecutive picks in rounds three through five, Colson Montgomery, Matt Shaw and Marcelo Mayer, to really break out this season. The Jakalope’s disappointing season a year ago was mostly because of the pitching staff. It doesn’t look like this year will be much different in that regard. Burns has exciting potential, but the rest of the rotation consists of veterans past their prime or extremely injury prone hurlers. Getting Gerrit Cole back will be huge boost if he’s able to return to his pre-Tommy John form. Luis Castillo has been the constant in the Jackalope staff for years now, but is clearly not the dominant ace he once was. Bubba Chandler is the other youngster besides Burns who they will turn to if the vets continue to decline or get hurt again. The bullpen looks like what you might expect from a rebuilding team with only Raisel Iglesias firmly entrenched as a closer for his MLB squad. Bryan Abreu has sneaky upside though if Josh Hader misses significant time in Houston. The Jackalope are relying on so many youngsters that it makes it nearly impossible to predict how this will go in the short term. The good news is that when you take that many shots, your chances of a couple big hits increases. That’s exactly what the Jackalope will be hoping for in 2026.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 8th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (6th)
    • Total Points – 9th (9th)

    Summary:

    This is exactly where the Cougars were projected to finish a year ago, and it turned out to be almost exactly correct not only in the place of finish, but where they would rank in most of the categories as well. The Cougars will hope that these projections aren’t quite as accurate this time around. The pitching staff was much improved last year, so the hope is that their offense can take similar steps in the right direction in this year’s campaign, even though it is not predicted to happen here. They took a more conservative approach to their offensive rebuild than the Jacklope, going with more proven commodities like Taylor Ward and Luis Arraez in the first half of the draft. Even first round pick Geraldo Perdomo was more of a substance over style pick. Perdomo joins a crowded middle infield, but he and Ketel Marte are the clear headliners. They return the Marlins double play combo of Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez. Maybe the biggest key for the Cougars offense to improve would be a full healthy season from second baseman Matt McLain. It will be interesting to see which of these guys get a bulk of the time at middle infield for the Cougars. They had to completely rebuild the corner spots with Tyler Soderstrom moving to the outfield. Arraez and Caleb Durbin were key additions for those spots. One clear strength is behind the dish with returners Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers, who are both among the top catchers in fantasy baseball. The outfield is filled with steady veterans like Ward, Bryan Reynolds and underappreciated star Brent Rooker. Rooker actually has the highest projected Batting PAR on this entire roster. The pitching staff looks solid once again, with more or less the entire starting rotation in tact from last year led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes. Joe Ryan, Nick Pivetta and Kevin Gausman also return and each of them have solid projections for this year too. The one newcomer is another veteran, second round pick Brandon Woodruff, who looks to put a couple injury plagued seasons behind him. The bullpen is a wild card here. Ryan Walker is the only safe bet to rack up saves, but Griffin Jax and Abner Uribe are two others with hopes of earning saves and solid projections in the other categories to go with it. The Cougars should have another solid pitching staff this season. The key to moving up in the standings will be for some of the bats to exceed these projections, with several strong candidates to do so in the middle infield group.

  • Kurtz Kicks off Draft

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    The 2026 DTBL Draft is in the books. I usually write this recap article while the draft is still in progress. Even though that is not the case this time around, I’m going to keep it focused on the first round. There will be time to cover some of the other players taken during the team previews, which will start to roll out soon as we approach Opening Day next week. Going into this year’s draft, it was pretty clear this was not going to match last year in terms of clear cut rising stars occupying the bulk of the first round selections. So it was not surprising that four of the players taken in the first round this year are not new to the DTBL and even one of the newcomers has a few years of MLB experience under his belt.

    The Diamond Dogs got things started by taking one of the few players in this draft who would have been a certain first round pick in any year’s draft. They selected reigning American League Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, whose game power took no time at all acclimating to the big leagues. Kurtz slugged 36 home runs for the Athletics while maintaining an elite .290 batting average as well. This is the first time since 2018 that the first overall pick has been a first baseman. It was the fourth time in five years that the Diamond Dogs have made the first pick in the draft. If Kurtz keeps doing his thing, the Dogs offense could be good enough to make sure a different team gets that opportunity to pick first next year.

    The second pick wasn’t quite as clear cut as the Kurtz selection. The Cougars opted to go with one of last year’s breakout stars, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Perdomo’s disciplined plate approach mixed with excellent speed and newfound power turned him into a complete player in 2025. He hit .290 with 20 homers and 27 stolen bases. What perhaps made this a surprise selection for the Cougars specifically is that the middle infield was already a bit crowded even before the draft started with four of their keepers being second basemen or shortstops. Nonetheless, Perdomo joins Ketel Marte as the cornerstones at those positions moving forward.

    The Jackalope went with youngsters with big upside pretty much throughout this draft, starting with third overall selection Roman Anthony. Anthony entered last season as the consensus top prospect in the game. Like Kurtz, it took very little time for Anthony to show his potential in the big leagues. The five tool outfielder hit .292 with eight home runs before an oblique injury cut his season short. His recent performance in the World Baseball Classic showed that he’s healthy again and already among the best young players in the game. It remains to be seen if the Jackalope youth movement pays immediate dividends. Anthony figures to be a big part of their future regardless of how long it takes to return to contention.

    While this may have been a down year for talent in the draft overall, that was not the case for every position. The league hasn’t seen an influx of top flight catchers in a while. This could be the year that changes. The Komodos selected ’25 National League Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin with the fourth pick. It is the earliest a catcher has been taken in the draft since Gary Sanchez went second overall in 2017. While Baldwin was a prospect of note in the Braves organization, he wasn’t really expected to be a big contributor in 2025 with veteran Sean Murphy leading the Braves catching core. But Baldwin replaced an injured Murphy early in the season and likely took his starting job for good. He hit .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBI, all outstanding numbers for the offensively challenged position of catcher. He will team up with later draft pick Austin Wells to potentially give the Komodos one of the best catching combos in the league.

    The Komodos saw one of their former players go off the board in the pick following their own. The Choppers were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie when they nabbed closer Devin Williams with the fifth pick in the draft. It was definitely a case of picking for need as the Choppers did not bring back a single reliever from their ’25 squad. Williams had established himself as one of the best closers in baseball prior to an injury riddled ’24 season and then a rough 2025 campaign in which he eventually lost his job as the Yankees closer. Now he’s across town with the Mets where he will look to fill Edwin Diaz’s large shoes as their ninth inning stopper. The Choppers went reliever again in the second round taking Daniel Palencia, in hopes of turning this obvious weakness into a strength.

    One of the more interesting players in this year’s draft pool was Ben Rice who has incredible value as long as he remains eligible at catcher in this league. The problem is, that very well could be for this year only depending on how often the Yankees decide to put the slugger behind the dish. He’s far less valuable from a fantasy perspective manning first base. The Kings decided the gamble was worth it for this year anyway, making him the sixth selection of the draft. Rice hit 26 home runs with well above typical catcher numbers in average, runs and RBIs as well. So long as he puts up similar numbers this year, he will give the Kings a huge leg up on most of the league at that position. Whether or not he is one and done at that position in this league is something the Kings will worry about next offseason.

    A second former Komodo went off the board with the seventh pick. The Darkhorses nabbed veteran shortstop Corey Seager who perhaps had lost favor with the Komodos after a string of injury marred seasons. When healthy though, he’s about as reliable of an offensive performer as you can get. The Darkhorses offense is what prevented them from being a serious title contender a year ago. They were particularly weak up the middle. Seager should provide an immediate upgrade at that spot. If he stays healthy this time around, the Darkhorses figure to be in the championship mix all the way to the end.

    Kyle Bradish has a chance to be this year’s Garrett Crochet, a player who has been on the DTBL roster before but retains rookie eligibility due to never seeing an active roster before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2024. I think people forget how good he was prior to that injury. Obviously the Demigods didn’t, as they selected him with the seventh overall pick, making him the first starting pitcher taken in this draft. Bradish is the second straight Oriole taken by the Demigods in the first round, following Jordan Westburg a year ago. Bradish returned from the long rehab process late last season and looked like his old self, throwing 32 dominant innings. Because he never saw time on the active roster with the Jackalope, he enters this season as a strong DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Another starting pitcher followed Bradish with the Moonshiners selecting young righty Nolan McLean with pick number nine. McLean really flew up prospect rankings last year and had an extremely impressive MLB cup of coffee. He retains MLB rookie eligibility entering this season and is the consensus preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Drafted out of college as a two-way player, it has just been a little over a year since he started focusing solely on pitching. So there is still huge room for growth. As we saw in last night’s WBC Championship Game, he’s not afraid of the biggest of stages, and has the stuff to back it up. This is the third straight year the Moonshiners have used their first pick on a starting pitcher. Good luck to McLean in living up to the standard set by Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

    The Mavericks really have no weaknesses, so the two time defending champs could go in pretty much whatever direction they wanted with their early draft picks. This time, they opted to pick up a steady veteran outfielder in Ian Happ. Happ joins an outfield that already consisted of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jarren Duran and Mike Trout. Jazz Chisholm is moving onto the dirt this season though, opening up a spot for another solid outfield contributor. Happ figures to be just that. Going with proven commodities with their first several picks allowed the Mavericks to take some big swings at youngsters later in the draft. If history is any indication, they will probably hit a couple home runs with those picks. The Mavericks remain the team to beat in this league.

    Thanks to everyone for a well paced and well executed draft. We’re less than a week away from Opening Day. Season preview posts will be coming very soon. Stay tuned!

  • 2025 Season Preview: Part I

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    We're just hours away from the real start of the 2025 MLB season, after last week's two game appetizer in Japan.  So it's probably about time I start the DTBL season preview series.  Because I'm so tardy getting started, I'm going to consolidate this down to a three part series, covering nearly half of the teams in this Part I.  I intend to get through all ten teams before the end of the weekend.

    As usual, I'm going to use outside projections as the guiding light for my team previews.  I've computed projected standings using FanGraphs' Depth Chart projections, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team's depth chart.  As this year's draft progressed, it started to occur to me that Depth Charts might not be my best option for this, for reasons that I'm not going to get into right now.  I'm just throwing this out here to remind myself to reevaluate next year.  One thing I will point out, which is a flaw in my own methodology and not the projections themselves, is that I compiled these player projections a few days prior to the start of the draft.  So injuries and other spring training developments this month may not be factored into these numbers.  Where especially relevant, I will mention this in the team write-ups.  As I say every year, I wouldn't read into the specific ordinal rankings too heavily.  The purpose of this exercise is to get some sense of where each team's strengths and weaknesses exist, in a largely objective fashion.

    Let's get started.  This first part is going to contain previews of the four teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  I went with four both because I'm trying to consolidate this into one fewer section than in previous years, and also because these four teams are projected to finish extremely close to one another in the standings.  Just six points separate the seventh and tenth place finishers in the full projected standings, which I will share in the final article of this series.  Meanwhile, the sixth place finisher is double digit points ahead of all of these teams.  So if the projected standings are to be believed, which they honestly shouldn't be, these are the four teams least likely to contend for the league title.

     

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (9th)

    • Home Runs - 10th (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 10th (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 5th (6th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 9th (6th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (2nd)

    • Wins - 10th (8th)

    • Saves - 4th (6th)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th (8th-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th-T (4th)

    • Total Points - 10th (7th)

    Summary:

    Well, somebody has to be last.  As mentioned up top, there really isn't much separating any of the teams covered in this section.  The Choppers happen to wind up with the fewest projected standings points though.  Pitching is largely to blame for this, which is a bit surprising since they had an above average staff a year ago and are bringing back pretty much everyone who was responsible for that.  Although that also sort of explains the drop in the projections compared to the rest of the league.  They did not add any significant pitching pieces, at least on paper.  Their first five draft picks were all hitters and they didn't pick a starting pitcher until the 10th round.  So the rotation to start the year figures to be the main five from last year:  Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Brian Woo and Taj Bradley.  There are a couple wild cards here that could improve things on the pitching side.  One would be a strong return from Tommy John surgery from last year's first round pick Eury Perez, though that probably won't happen until the second half of the season.  The other is the possible emergence of top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe who will begin the season in the Tigers rotation and could eventually give the Choppers a huge boost as an extra starter in a relief pitching slot.  The methodology I use for these projections fails to reward teams with extra starting pitchers since all team inning totals are normalized.  So if Jobe can stick in the rotation and put up good numbers in the process, that could be a huge boon to the Choppers in several categories, particularly strikeouts and wins.  The bullpen should be a strength for the Choppers regardless of how they deploy Jobe.  Emmanuel Clase remains one of the best closers in baseball.  Kyle Finnegan and Carlos Estevez aren't at that level, but should be reliable sources for saves.  Like the pitching staff, the Choppers infield has a very familiar look to it with Adley Rutschman behind the plate, Pete Alonso at first and CJ Abrams at shortstop leading the way.  It is not a flashy group on the whole, but reliable contributors across the board.  The outfield is where things look completely different this year.  Wyatt Langford, Lawrence Butler and Colton Cowser were all drafted in the first four rounds this month.  All three provide power and Langford and Butler add speed to the mix as well.  The one returning stalwart in the outfield is Kyle Schwarber.  This outfield group is probably where the Choppers are going to need the breakouts to occur to soar past these modest offensive projections.  While the Choppers are in the midst of a quarter century title drought, they almost never finish dead last either.  That last happened in 2008.  So needless to say, expectations are much higher than the numbers thrown out here.

     

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (7th)

    • Home Runs - 7th (7th)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 10th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 10th (10th)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (7th)

    • Wins - 5th (10th)

    • Saves - 9th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 4th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 10th (8th-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (10th)

    • Total Points - 9th (10th)

    Summary:

    This is the second straight year that the Choppers and Cougars have come out on the bottom of these pre-season projections, so maybe there is something about their team builds that don't fit well into this model.  Although in the case of the Cougars, the last place projection a year ago proved to be correct.  There are some signs of significant improvement this year on the pitching side.  That's largely thanks to the arrival of first overall draft pick Paul Skenes.  Skenes has the fourth highest projected Pitching PAR in the league, first among rookies.  The rest of the rotation is mostly unchanged from last year, with Corbin Burnes and Joe Ryan being the top returners.  Besides Skenes, the other reason for improved projections is the expectation that Kevin Gausman will return to form after a disappointing 2024.  Seth Lugo could have been a steal in the 10th round of the draft.  He had a breakout season last year that actually put him in the thick of the AL Cy Young award race late into the season.  It would be very surprising if the Cougars rotation isn't vastly improved this year.  The bullpen remains a question mark though.  There are a lot of good stuff, late inning high leverage guys in this group, but only Ryan Walker enters the season with a closer gig locked up.  Justin Martinez is a decent bet to contribute saves too.  The rest of the relievers are a bit further down the pecking order on their clubs.  The projections on the hitting side are not great.  Only last year's breakout star Brent Rooker is pegged to finish over 4 PAR.  It is a little surprising that Ketel Marte isn't at that threshold considering how great of a season he had a year ago.  One guy to watch will be middle infielder Matt McLain who the Cougars used a second round pick on last year, but missed the entire season due to a shoulder injury.  There is still tremendous upside potential there as a five category stud.  The catching duo of Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers is one of the league's best pairs.  Newcomer shortstop Xavier Edwards should easily lead the team in steals, which could be hard to come by for the rest of the roster.  The outfield is a bag of mysteries outside of Rooker and Bryan Reynolds.  This group took a hit this week when Nolan Jones was traded away from Colorado back to Cleveland.  There are probably too many question marks on the hitting side to expect the Cougars to have an above average offense.  So it will be up to Skenes and the rotation to take this team well out of the cellar.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (8th)

    • Home Runs - 6th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 6th (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th)

    • Stolen Bases - 6th (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (5th)

    • Wins - 8th (9th)

    • Saves - 10th (7th)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 6th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th-T (9th)

    • Total Points - 8th (9th)

    Summary:

    Any hopes the Jackalope had in 2024 quickly died when reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr tore his ACL in late May.  Unfortunately for the Jackalope, injuries are already shaping up to be a big part of the story again this season.  But let's start out with some positives.  The Jackalope offense looks to be perfectly adequate across the board, projected to finish with more standings points this year in all five batting categories.  This is largely thanks to the expected May return of Acuna, although I think the projections are probably a bit too optimistic about the number of plate appearances he will record and bases he will be allowed to steal.  The other main boost to the offense is second overall pick Jackson Chourio who figures to be a five category star right from the get-go.  Chourio joins an already strong cast of returning outfielders in Acuna, Michael Harris, Anthony Santander, Adolis Garcia and Pete Crow-Armstrong.  This is clearly the Jackalope's strongest position group, putting them up there with any team in the league besides the Mavericks.  Cal Raleigh is among the league's best catchers, but I would not say the Jackalope have superstars at any other infield position.  Second round pick Mark Vientos should give them a nice boost at the hot corner though.  Where these projections fall apart, and frankly are probably overcooked, is on the pitching side.  That's because I pulled these numbers in early March before it was known there was anything wrong with Gerrit Cole, much less that he will miss the entire season following Tommy John surgery.  Cole would be impossible for any team to replace, but especially the Jackalope who are in crisis mode with the health of several other starting pitchers as well.  Second round pick Jared Jones also has an elbow injury, which thankfully won't require surgery at this time, but will probably cost him half the season.  Grayson Rodriguez and Ranger Suarez will also start the year on the IL.  Amazingly, oft injured Tyler Glasnow is the healthy ace of the staff at the moment.  It is going to be tough for the Jackalope to keep afloat with their rotation in shambles to start the season.  The bullpen does not appear equipped to pick up the slack either.  Raisel Iglesias is the only pitcher on the staff who is a good bet to pick up a significant number of saves.  Interestingly, the Jackalope opted to build their bullpen out of high strikeout guys who can perhaps boost the other non-saves pitching categories as well.  Not a terrible strategy as difficult as saves can be to project.  However, what was unusual about the Jacklope approach is that they picked several of these non-closers in the first half of the draft.  One could assume this would have played out differently if they had known what was about to happen to their rotation.  At any rate, the Jackalope have a solid offense, easily the best among the teams covered in this section according to the projections.  The question is will it matter if they can't field a full staff of healthy pitchers?

     

    Dan's Diamond Dogs

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (2nd)

    • Home Runs - 4th (5th-T)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (5th)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 1st (4th)

    • Earned Run Average - 10th (9th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (10th)

    • Wins - 9th (7th)

    • Saves - 2nd (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 10th (8th)

    • Total Batting Points - 5th (4th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (8th)

    • Total Points - 7th (5th)

    Summary:

    We wrap up this segment of the preview series with last year's most pleasant surprise.  The Diamond Dogs followed up three straight last place finishes (two under current ownership) with a very solid fifth place standing.  It was a vastly improved offense that was mostly responsible for the boost.  That still appears to be the strength of the team heading into this season, with the pitching staff projected for the fewest points in the league.  The makeup of the offense is a bit different this year though.  These Dogs can run.  Seven of them are projected to steal at least 20 bases this year, led by shortstop and reigning Rookie of the Year Elly De La Cruz.  Newcomer second baseman Brice Turang and returning star shortstops Trea Turner and Oneil Cruz give the Dogs the fastest middle infield in the league, and a pretty powerful group as well.  The outfield has a ton of potential upside.  Veterans Teoscar Hernandez and Marcell Ozuna complement superstar Julio Rodriguez.  Josh Lowe is someone to watch as a possible breakout star this season, particularly playing half his games in the very left-handed hitter friendly minor league park the Rays will call home this year.  Adding to that outfield mix is first round pick Brenton Doyle who also plays in a hitter friendly environment in Denver.  Take it to the bank that the Diamond Dogs will lead the league in stolen bases.  These projections show a bit of a step backwards in batting average though.  Overall, it is a solid offensive squad.  The pitching staff will need to exceed the projections for them to take another step forward in 2025.  The Dogs did not use any of their early draft capital on the rotation.  The good news though is that they are entering this campaign in far healthier form.  Returning after missing all of 2024 is Sandy Alcantara.  He figures to pick up right where he left off in 2023 as the ace of this staff.  Jack Flaherty is the one new piece to the rotation and has the next best projections behind Alcantara.  Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are solid veterans, but not star producers at this stage of their careers.  The Dogs could really use breakout seasons from one or both of Shane Baz and Mitch Keller to raise the ceiling of this staff.  The bullpen figures to be one of the league's best again after topping the league in saves a year ago.  Josh Hader and Ryan Helsley are back to lead the way, while Ryan Pressley figures to return to a closing role now that he is no longer a teammate of Hader's in real life.  Although the final projection is for the Diamond Dogs to drop a couple places in the standings this season, I would still consider this an arrow up franchise that just needs to get better starting pitching in order to reach contender status.

  • Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

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    The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he's been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

    Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

    Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year's draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year's ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

    Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

    While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of '24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

    Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn't make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren't quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6'7" frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

    How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn't make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

    The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with '24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

    My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn't debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year's squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

    Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet's profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year's draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet's first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he's been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

    The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

    So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year's draft.  Hopefully we'll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

  • 2024 Season Preview: Part IV

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    With the first three full days of the MLB season in the books, we're off and running.  Mookie Betts is on pace to hit .611 with 130 home runs and 324 runs batted in.  Let's see if he can keep it up!  On a negative note, four of the top twelve picks from this month's draft have already found their way to the injured list.  The rash of injuries is something to keep an eye on as it *seems* like there are far more than usual this early in the season.

    Now to the final part of the 2024 DTBL season preview series.  This one will cover the three teams projected to finish at the top of the standings this year.  As I keep mentioning, the margins between these teams and the ones covered in the most recent article are razor thin.  Feel free to skip all the way to the bottom to see for yourself.  It is not particularly surprising to see any of these three teams in this part of the preview as they were all among the top five finishers a year ago.  These might be the three most balanced teams in the league as each of them are projected for at least 30 batting and pitching points, the only three teams that can make that claim.  Without further ado, here are the teams expected to finish in those top three spots.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (4th)

    • Home Runs - 5th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 4th (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 6th (4th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (9th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (6th)

    • Wins - 6th (4th)

    • Saves - 6th (4th-T)

    • Strike Outs - 2nd (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd (4th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (6th)

    • Total Points - 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Jackalope category projected rankings point to a team that is well rounded with no obvious weakness.  They also show a team that appears to be a little bit better than last season's fifth place finish.  For what its worth, they were projected to finish third last year as well.  Offensively, they made small upgrades, but the top contributors figure to be the holdovers.  And of course, it all starts with reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.  He is projected for a ridiculous 14.4 PAR, which I think I can safely assume is a record since I've started doing these pre-season projections.  It is almost six points higher than all other hitters in the league.  Makes sense though, coming off a record setting 18.9 PAR season.  His Braves and Jackalope outfield teammate Michael Harris is no slouch either.  Adolis Garica, Anthony Santander and newcomer Jordan Walker fill out what might be the league's best outfield.  The infield is pretty solid too with veteran Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Jung holding down the corners and Luis Arraez and Dansby Swanson up the middle.  The catching duo of Cal Raleigh and Francisco Alvarez is back for another season.  As long as Acuna remains healthy, it is hard to imagine this not being one of the better offensive teams in the league.  The pitching projections may be a tad inflated though.  They were compiled before staff ace Gerrit Cole got hurt.  It remains unclear how much time he will miss.  He will certainly be tough to replace.  Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow are pretty solid top of the rotation pitchers in their own right.  First round draft pick Grayson Rodriguez is an exciting addition to this group.  They also opted to roll the dice on a couple currently injured pitchers coming off great seasons in Kyle Bradish and Kodai Senga.  The Jackalope do have enough starting pitching talent to survive a lengthy absence from Cole, but maybe drop the expectations a notch or two.  The bullpen is a bit of a wild card.  Raisel Iglesias is the only well established closer, but Jose Alvarado is likely to join him if the Phillies don't opt to go with a committee.  The health of the pitching staff is certainly the thing to watch early with the Jackalope.  If they come out unscathed, this will be a very dangerous team with understandably high expectations.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (6th)

    • Home Runs - 1st (2nd)

    • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 8th (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 5th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (4th)

    • Wins - 7th (5th-T)

    • Saves - 2nd (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 1st (3rd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (5th)

    • Total Points - 2nd (3rd-T)

    Summary:

    The Kings already had a very good offense, but now they may have the league's best.  That is despite trading away their first round pick and not drafting a hitter until round three.  Of course, it was that trade of the first round pick that netted them Bo Bichette, who gives a big boost to a position that they were lacking production from a year ago.  The infield really has no weak spot now with Bichette at short, Marcus Semien at second, Austin Riley and Gunnar Henderson at third and the pair of Matt Olson and Rhys Hoskins at first.  They will benefit from having Hoskins back after missing all of last season with a knee injury.  Will Smith is one of the top catchers in the league.  They aren't quite as deep at that position having traded away Sean Murphy, but Logan O'Hoppe will look to replace most of his productivity.  The outfield has been largely rebuilt.  The two holdovers are hard to beat though with Mookie Betts and Randy Arozarena.  The red hot Betts will most likely move to the Kings crowded infield next year as he is moonlighting as a shortstop for the Dodgers this season.  To fill out the outfield, the Kings drafted Chas McCormick and Eloy Jimenez and brought back Tyler O'Neill later in the draft as well.  There are probably other teams with a better group of outfielders on the whole, but Betts alone makes this a very solid group.  The Kings also rebuilt a mediocre pitching staff.  Gone is longtime ace Max Scherzer.  Zack Wheeler and George Kirby are back though and should provide ace-like quality once again.  Michael King moves into the rotation as a full time starter for the first time in his career.  The exciting addition to this group is second round pick Cole Ragans.  The lefty who the Royals acquired from the Rangers in a trade last year was one of the top starters in baseball in the closing months of 2023.  Finally, the Kings picked up another Mariners starter in addition to Kirby, with Bryce Miller rounding out the rotation.  The success of these five starters could be what determines the Kings fate this season as it is the one group that isn't clearly among the best in the league.  The bullpen should be excellent, at least in terms of racking up saves.  Pete Fairbanks, Camilo Doval and Paul Sewald have solid grasps on closer roles, although Sewald is currently on the shelf with an injury suffered late in spring training.  Hunter Harvey may even have a shot at picking up saves if the Nats ultimately decide to go with their best pitcher in that role.  Despite pretty significant roster upheaval, the Kings should once again be in the mix for the league championship and at the very least should have an excellent chance of finishing in the top three for the fourth consecutive season.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 6th (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (2nd)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (2nd)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 1st (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (3rd)

    • Wins - 1st (1st-T)

    • Saves - 7th (6th)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th (1st)

    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd-T)

    • Total Points - 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    The Demigods finally won their first DTBL championship last season, doing so by being good at pretty much everything.  They finished in the top three of the league in every category except for saves and strikeouts.  These projections show them once again being strong across the board, but maybe taking a small step back in a few categories.  The trio of Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr and Corbin Carroll all head into this season as potential MVP candidates, at least if Ronald Acuna doesn't have another season like last year.  Carroll won the Rookie of the Year award and finished second in MVP voting.  He and Tatis lead a very strong outfield that brings back almost everyone from a year ago, although Tatis is actually new to the outfield in this league this season.  Seiya Suzuki and J.D. Martinez are back.  The one key addition is Brandon Nimmo.  The infield will once again be anchored by Freeman, Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve, three guys who have been making the Demigods infield a strength for many years.  It is unlikely they will get the same kind of production from their first round draft pick as they did a year ago with Carroll, but Spencer Steer is that guy this year.  They do have a bit of a problem with another draft pick, third baseman Noelvi Marte receiving an 80 game PED suspension.  Replacing him will be the same person who will be asked to replace him for the Reds, Jeimer Candelario.  Marte's second half return could give this infield a big boost though, assuming his prospect pedigree wasn't enhanced unnaturally.  The Demigods should get nice production from their catching duo of Willson Contreras and newcomer Yanier Diaz.  The Demigods have had a strong pitching staff for quite some time now and that should be the case again this season.  Their entire rotation from last season is back.  Zac Gallen, Max Fried and Aaron Nola have been reliable mainstays.  Joe Musgrove has been excellent when healthy too.  And last year's breakout star was Justin Steele, who unfortunately suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day.  When healthy, that's as strong of a 1 through 5 rotation as you will find.  I don't want to say the Demigods punt saves, but filling their bullpen with closers has never really been a priority for them.  They do bring back the excellent David Bednar and added Adbert Alzolay in the draft.  Like the Choppers, the Demigods will start the season with two actual starting pitchers filling relief slots with Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Whitlock.  This could give them an advantage in wins and strikeouts that isn't really captured in these projections.  While the margin is extremely tight, it is not surprising to see the defending champions at the top of these projections.  The Demigods are looking to be the first team to successfully defend their DTBL title since the Kings in 2019.  They certainly have a roster capable of doing just that.

     

    And with that, we have completed the 2024 DTBL season preview.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

     

    Good luck to everybody this season!  Happy Easter!

  • Dogs Make Room For EDLC

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    Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

    A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

    Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

    It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

    Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

    The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

    The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

    The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

    With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

    After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

    Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

    The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

    On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

  • Acuna Slugs, Steals Way to MVP

    Embed from Getty Images The 2023 baseball season saw unprecedented change as a result of significant new rules:  a pitch clock, banning of the shift, limiting pickoff attempts and larger bases.  With the exception of the drastic decrease in average time of games, probably the most noticeable change this year was stolen bases coming back in style.  There were 1,652 stolen bases across the DTBL this season, an incredible 53% increase over a year ago and the highest league total since 1999.  In fact, we were just nine steals shy of this being a record breaking season for steals.  Almost every player with at least average speed increased their stolen base output this year.  But one player took that to an extreme while continuing to be one of the best hitters in the game.  Ronald Acuna Jr stole 73 bases while hitting 41 home runs, a pair of milestones no other player in DTBL history has ever come close to reaching.  In a unanimous decision, the Jackalope and Braves outfielder is the 2023 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Acuna's 73 stolen bases led the league by 19.  He is the first DTBL player to steal 70+ bases since Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009 and that 73 figure ranks third highest in league history, just five shy of the league record 78 by Jose Reyes in 2007.  Needless to say, his 41 home runs are the highest total ever among players with 70+ steals.  That mark was previously held by Kenny Lofton who hit 14 home runs with his 75 steals in 1996.  Even if you bump the HR/SB milestones down to 30/50, Acuna is still the first player in league history to reach those marks.  Oh, Acuna also hit .338, which put him second in line for the batting title, and led the league with 149 runs scored.  His 106 runs batted in, despite hitting leadoff all year, also put him in the top 10 of the league.  It was truly one of the best offensive seasons in league history.  By PAR, it currently ranks as the best season in all years that have been calculated (2005-present), by a wide margin.  His 19.0 Batting PAR blows away Aaron Judge's previous high from last year at 12.2.  I should mention that this PAR total will likely be lowered when I get around to doing the post-season adjustment.  This is because stolen bases were drastically overrepresented in the PAR totals this year since the leaguewide total was so significantly higher compared to recent years.  That said, the adjustment isn't going to cost him 6+ points, so this should remain the best Batting PAR individual season to date by a comfortable margin.  There is no question that Acuna had one of the best single season performances in DTBL history.

    The Jackalope selected Acuna with the first pick in the 2019 Draft.  He immediately had one of the best rookie seasons in league history, hitting 41 homers with 37 stolen bases, earning him Rookie of the Year and runner up for MVP.  It was certainly a sign of what was to come for this five tool phenom.  Unfortunately, his ascendence was put on pause in 2021 when he tore his ACL halfway through the year and then missed the first month of the 2022 season as well.  In these abbreviated seasons, he did not flash the same type of power he had shown previously, but the speed was still there.  Then this season happened, leaving little doubt that he is now back to full strength and better than ever.  While not directly fantasy related, his '23 stat that I found most impressive was his 11.4% strikeout rate.  He had been in 23%-30% range his entire career, and then suddenly cut that in half this year.  While the Jackalope finished a distant fifth place with Acuna, it would be scary to think how bad their offense would have been without him.  He joins Gerrit Cole for a Jackalope sweep of the non-rookie awards.  They'll look for more contributions from the rest of the roster next year.

    As expected, Acuna won this award unanimously, the second straight season in which the MVP winner received all of the first place votes after Judge did the same a year ago.  No other player even received half as many total points as Acuna's perfect 100.  In fact, Acuna was the only player who even appeared on every ballot.  Five different players received second place votes, making it a tight race for all of the other finishing positions.  The runner-up is Demigods outfielder and Rookie of the Year winner Corbin Carroll.  The sparkplug to the Demigods championship winning offense, Carroll finished second in the league behind Acuna in both stolen bases (54) and Batting PAR (10.7).  If our league's MVP vote mimicked real life where sports MVP awards often simply go to the best player on the best team, Carroll would have been the choice.  He received half of the second place votes and finished with 49 total points.  Third place will be shared by a pair of players who have things in common with Carroll.  The first being his Demigods teammate Freddie Freeman.  Freeman was another key cog for the championship squad.  The veteran first baseman hit .331 with 29 home runs and even stole 23 bases.  He received a pair of second place votes and three thirds to finish with 37 points.  The other player with 37 points is Mavericks shortstop Bobby Witt Jr, who shares Carroll's status as a rookie with elite power and speed.  Witt stole 49 bases while hitting 30 home runs.  Very few players in league history have reached the HR/SB levels that all three of Acuna, Carroll and Witt hit this year.  Witt now had a third place MVP finish to go along with his third place ROY standing.  For MVP, he only received one second place tally, but four thirds allowed him to tie Freeman.  There is yet another tie for fifth place.  Moonshiners star Shohei Ohtani was the unanimous choice for AL MVP.  But in this league, his pitching prowess doesn't increase his value, making his season slightly less significant while still incredibly impressive.  Ohtani hit .304 with 44 home runs and 20 stolen bases.  I hear he had a pretty good year on the mound as well.  Ohtani only appeared on three ballots, but did get a second place vote, pushing his total up to 15 points.  That ties him with yet another rookie, Diamond Dogs first overall draft pick, outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Rodriguez's DTBL career got off to a bit of a slow start.  He made up for it in the final months of the season though, accumulating 32 homers and 37 stolen bases.  Like Ohtani, he received a single second place vote, but with more down ballot support to also reach 15 points.  So that's three DTBL rookies among the top six MVP vote getters.  The future is certainly bright.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    And with that, we have concluded DTBL awards season.  Hopefully soon, I'm going to get the post-season PAR update done.  I anticipate it is going to cause significant changes in the numbers across the board due to the wild statistical shifts that occurred this season.  It will probably be worth writing about at some point.  In the meantime, I hope you have a happy Thanksgiving!

  • Cole Reaches Pitching Apex

    Embed from Getty Images
    Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers in baseball ever since making his big league debut in 2013.  The first overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft has been anchoring rotations for the better part of a decade.  Yet the Cy Young award had eluded him, both in MLB and the DTBL.  Until this year.  Cole put up his usual exceptional numbers.  But this time he was actually rewarded for it.  The Jackalope and Yankees righty finally earned the American League Cy Young award in a unanimous decision.  In the DTBL, the competition was a little stiffer, but he came out on top there as well.  For the first time in his career, Gerrit Cole is the DTBL Cy Young award winner.

    While Cole is known mostly as a power pitcher who can sometimes be victimized by home runs, inflating his ERA along the way, it was actually the ERA and WHIP numbers this year that ultimately set him apart from the field.  He was the only qualified pitcher to post a sub 1.0 WHIP (0.98) and his 2.63 ERA trailed only Blake Snell, who threw nearly 30 fewer innings.  While still an elite total, his 222 strikeouts only ranked fifth in the league.  Cole was one of just four pitchers to throw over 200 innings this season, further cementing his workhorse status.  He led all DTBL hurlers with 11.8 Pitching PAR.  Part of what pushed this Cole season to a higher level was his ability to keep the ball in the park more often.  After surrendering a league leading 33 home runs in 2022, he lowered that figure to a very respectable 20 in 2023, the first time his HR/9 was under 1.0 since 2018.  Perhaps the 32 year old Cole is gracefully transitioning to more of a finesse pitcher than he was earlier in his career.

    Originally selected by the Mavericks with the ninth pick of the 2014 DTBL Draft, Cole spent one season with the Mavericks before being traded to the Jackalope in exchange for Aroldis Chapman prior to 2015.  He has been the Jackalope ace ever since.  Cole has topped 200 strikeouts six times and this was the fifth season in which he won at least 15 games for the Jackalope.  Assuming they keep him around, sometime early next season he should pass Felix Hernandez as the Jackalope career leader in strikeouts.  Including his season with the Mavericks, he passed the 2,000 career strikeout milestone in September.  While this was his first Cy Young winning campaign, it would be hard to make an argument for it being the finest season of his career.  That would have to be 2019 when he struck out 326 batters, the highest single season total for any DTBL pitcher not named Randy Johnson.  He also won 20 games with a 2.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP that year.  Unfortunately for him, Justin Verlander also had an incredible season in ’19, bumping Cole to second in the Cy Young vote.  This is the sixth straight year that Cole has received Cy Young votes, and seventh time overall.  He is a six time DTBL All-Star, making the team every year since 2018, excluding the 2020 season when there was no game.  Cole is the first Jackalope Cy Young winner since Jake Arrieta in 2015.

    Unlike the AL Cy Young vote, Cole did not win this one unanimously.  He was placed first or second on all 10 ballots though, making him the only player who can make that claim.  He received seven first place tallies and three seconds to secure 91 of the possible 100 total points.  Two other pitchers were within shouting distance of Cole.  Darkhorses rookie Spencer Strider, fresh off his second place finish in the Rookie of the Year vote, now has another runner-up finish.  Strider lapped the field with 281 strikeouts and also led all pitchers with 20 wins.  He had an impressive 1.09 WHIP as well.  What probably cost him this award was his good but not great 3.86 ERA, more than a run higher than Cole’s.  Strider received a pair of first place votes and three seconds.  His 66 total points were enough to put him in second place.  Just behind him is the NL Cy Young winner, Choppers lefty Blake Snell.  Snell finally regained the magic that earned him Rookie of the Year and a second place Cy Young finish in his DTBL rookie season with the Cougars in 2018.  This year, he led all qualified pitchers with a 2.25 ERA and was third in strikeouts with 234.  Snell received the final first place vote and four seconds for a total of 57 points.  Cole, Strider and Snell were the only pitchers to receive top two votes and to appear on every ballot, comfortably placing them ahead of the rest of the pack.  The fourth place finisher is the champion Demigods ace Zac Gallen.  Perhaps a bit under the radar prior to the Diamondbacks pennant winning run this fall, Gallen has been dominant for two straight seasons now.  This season, he set career highs with 222 strikeouts and 17 wins, finishing only behind Strider in the latter category.  Gallen received a pair of third place votes and 23 total points.  Rounding out the top five is Darkhorses reliever Felix Bautista.  In his DTBL debut season, he saved 33 games while striking out 110 in just 61 innings.  His 1.48 ERA was lowest among all pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this year.  Bautista appeared on seven ballots, accumulating 13 points.  So that’s an impressive fifth place finish for both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young for the dominant reliever, despite missing the final month of the season.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    Two down, one to go.  Probably not a lot of suspense surrounding the Most Valuable Player award, but you will just have to wait a couple days for the official announcement.  Look for that on Wednesday.

  • 2023 Season Preview: Part IV

    Embed from Getty Images It is now time for the final installment of the 2023 DTBL season preview series.  If you thought we'd seen the last of projected ties after the last section where three teams were slotted to finish tied for fourth place, you'd be wrong.  There are two more teams with exactly four more projected standings points than that trio, which puts them in a tie for second place in these standings.  Then, in a bit of a departure from the norm, the projected champion has a fairly decent lead over all challengers according to these numbers.  That is particularly surprising since that team is expected to have a below average offense.

    Based strictly on 2022 results, the presense of two of these teams in the final preview section is quite surprising.  But then if you look at the rosters and examine the reasons for the disappointing seasons a year ago, it starts to make sense.  All three of these squads have the goods to win the DTBL in 2023.  Here are the projected top three teams in the league heading into the 2023 season.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (5th)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (5th)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (4th)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (6th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)

    • Wins - 9th (8th-T)

    • Saves - 8th (9th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th (7th-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (5th)

    • Total Points - 2nd-T (7th)

    Summary:

    Impressively, the Jackalope are expected to finish at or above their point total from last year in all 10 categories.  That's how you go about turning a disappointing finish one season into championship contention the next, by improving across the board.  While I mentioned the Kings being one of the most balanced teams in the league, the Jackalope probably deserve the title in that regard.  They are projected to finish in the top four in both batting and pitching points.  No other team can claim that.  Having said that, the pitching projections mainly expected full healthy seasons from the Jackalope hurlers, and the season is off to a bad start in that regard.  With Tyler Glasnow, Luis Severino and Triston McKenzie all starting the season on the I.L., they are down three projected rotation pieces.  That still leaves them with two of the best pitchers in the game though in Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo.  They also have Lance Lynn returning to anchor a spot.  The newcomers who will need to pick up the slack early are Brady Singer and Andrew Heaney.  The bullpen is also banged up heading into the season, most notably without top closer Raisel Iglesias.  Alex Lange, Giovanny Gallegos and Jason Adam give them some other interesting options in relief.  The good news is, they should get all of those ailing pitchers back at some point.  Perhaps the offense will need to carry the load early on though.  Fortunately, they are equipped to do just that.  Ronald Acuna is back to full health and could be a legit 40/40 candidate this year.  His Braves teammate Michael Harris joins him in the Jackalope outfield as well.  Like Acuna, the first round pick Harris figures to be an elite power and speed guy.  And then there is Adolis Garcia, giving the Jackalope three outfielders with at least 20/20 HR/SB projections.  If Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy, this should be the best outfield in the league outside of the Mavericks.  On the infield, Paul Goldschmidt is the main returning cog.  There are several new additions here, including Jeremy Pena and Josh Jung, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate.  The infield is unproven compared to the outfield, but there are a bunch of young guys with breakout potential.  It has been a couple disappointing seasons in a row for the Jackalope.  These numbers point to a big turnaround in 2023 though.

     

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (2nd)

    • Home Runs - 5th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (4th)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (4th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (5th)

    • Wins - 8th (1st)

    • Saves - 7th (7th-T)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (4th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (4th)

    • Total Points - 2nd-T (1st)

    Summary:

    The Moonshiners finally won their first DTBL championship in 2022 thanks to solid contributions throughout the roster.  On the offensive side of things, they didn't have any single player with eye-popping numbers.  Kyle Tucker was the only Moonshiner in the top 15 of Batting PAR.  But they got very good seasons out of pretty much everybody.  So they will attempt to defend the title with another strong, deep roster that actually has room for improvement on offense.  The infield is particularly deep with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Tim Anderson leading the way.  Amed Rosario and Ryan Mountcastle return after being two key breakout performers from a year ago.  They lost the benefit of Daulton Varsho occupying a catching slot while spending most of his time in the outfield, but replaced him in that spot with MJ Melendez who will likely do the same thing:  play most days in the outfield while holding down a catching spot.  Varsho will still be a valuable contributor for the Moonshiners as well, but will have to do it as an outfielder.  He's joining an outfield that already has two of the most dynamic players in the game in Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  After a couple straight seasons of excellent work as both a hitter and a pitcher, the Moonshiners had a more complicated decision to make this winter on Ohtani's position status for '23.  Ultimately, they opted to leave him in the outfield where he's been excellent the past three years.  Meanwhile, Tucker is one of only three players (Acuna, Judge) with a 7+ Batting PAR projection for this season.  Part of the reason why the Moonshiners elected to keep Ohtani in the outfield is because they already have arguably the best starting rotation in the league.  Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah and Yu Darvish were three of the top five finishers in Pitching PAR last year, with Verlander taking home the Cy Young award.  Unfortunately, he'll start this season on the I.L.  Dustin May, Reid Detmers and Jeffrey Springs were all added to the roster in the draft, giving the Moonshiners incredible depth in the rotation.  The bullpen suffered a crushing blow with Edwin Diaz tearing his ACL during a WBC postgame celebration.  This seventh place saves projection was pre-Diaz injury, so they will be hard pressed to not finish near the bottom of the league in saves.  Clay Holmes is probably their best bet to rack up saves.  But Diaz is irreplaceable across all of his numbers.  The Moonshiners certainly have the talent to defend their title.  It just might come in a different manner this time around.

     

    David's Darkhorses

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 8th (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 8th (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 1st (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (10th)

    • Wins - 2nd (7th)

    • Saves - 2nd (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 1st (8th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th (4th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (8th)

    • Total Points - 1st (8th)

    Summary:

    When I first saw these projections, I thought maybe I made a mistake.  How could a team that was among the worst in the league in pitching points last year be far and away the best pitching staff on paper heading into this season?  Well, there are actually a couple credible explanations for this.  First, Jacob deGrom is projected to throw 175 innings this season according to FanGraphs Depth Charts.  That would be 175 more innings than the Darkhorses got from him a year ago.  And on a per inning basis, there is no better starting pitcher in baseball than deGrom.  Of course, you could argue that 175 innings from him is pretty unrealistic since he hasn't reached that number since 2019.  The other big change is the addition of Spencer Strider to the rotation.  Strider was far and away the best pitcher available in this year's draft.  So with those two guys in the fold, it is close to a lock the Darkhorses will have a much improved staff.  47 pitching points may be a tad optimistic though.  Strider isn't the only fireballer joining the rotation.  Hunter Greene was added to the mix as well.  Logan Webb is the key returning rotation piece.  The bullpen being projected to finish second in saves is a product of a lot of unsettled closer situations across the league.  The Darkhorses only have two sure things for saves themselves in Kenley Jansen and Felix Bautista.  Andres Munoz should be a positive contributor out of the pen regardless of how many save opportunities he gets.  Four of the Darkhorses first five draft picks were pitchers.  Combine that with the return of deGrom and the optimistic outlook for the pitching staff starts to make sense.  It is also interesting that a team expected to take a big step back in batting points would still come out on top of the projected standings, but here we are.  Part of that is because of Bryce Harper's elbow injury recovery, which is baked into these numbers perhaps more pessimistically than recent news would suggest is warranted.  He could be back sooner than later.  And they could use him because no individual hitter has a Batting PAR projection over 4.  Believe it or not, Tommy Edman is the top guy on that list.  He along with Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and Brandon Lowe make up a solid middle infield.  The Darkhorses could use a return to old form from at least one of their third base pair of Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman.  J.T. Realmuto remains one of the best catchers in the game.  Christian Yelich is another guy from whom they could use a bounce back season.  George Springer is the most reliable producer in the outfield.  All in all, this is a very talented roster and a championship would not be terribly surprising.  I would not blame you if you question them being the preseason favorites though.

     

    So there you have it.  We've previewed the 2023 season for all 10 teams.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

     

    With all the rule changes, it is hard to know exactly what to expect during this 2023 baseball season.  I do expect it to be a lot of fun though.  Good luck to all!

  • Back To Basics

    Embed from Getty Images After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

    The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I've seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

    Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

    The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

    Strider's Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

    The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

    It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

    The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

    The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his '22 minor and major league season.

    Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn't exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn't have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

    Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

    To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn't map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

    Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I'm actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!